Variable structure Human Intention Estimator with mobility and vision constraints as model selection criteria
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Automation & Control Systems↗
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Hydropower Potential at Non-Powered Dams: A Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Tool based on Grid, Community, Industry, and Environmental Impacts
Non-powered dams (NPDs) are dams that do not include hydraulic turbine (hydropower) equipment. Currently, there are more than 80,000 such dams in the United States, which provide a variety of non-energy benefits, including flood control, water supply, navigation, and recreation. Approximately 500 of these NPDs are identified as having the potential to add hydropower generation (totaling up to a capacity of more than 8200 MW). A large share of investment costs and environmental impacts of dam construction have already been incurred at these NPDs. Hence, adding power to the existing dam structure is hypothesized to be achieved at a lower cost, with less risk, and a shorter timeframe than the development required for new dam construction. The abundance of NPDs, the associated environmental favorability, and cost advantages, combined with the reliability, predictability, and dispatchability of hydropower, make NPDs a strong candidate in the nation’s renewable energy portfolio. To assess the NPD to hydropower conversion potential, in this study, we developed a GIS-based multi-criterial decision analysis tool, which allows users to rank these NPDs based on the grid, community, industry, and environmental impacts (i.e., GCIE impacts). This web-based interactive tool (developed using open-source Python and JavaScript) lets the user choose from a wide range of features to define each of the GCIE impact scores through a user-friendly graphical user interface. These features are related to dam operation, hydropower generation opportunity, power market economy, social vulnerability and risk, proximity to critical infrastructure and energy generating facilities, environmental concerns (air, water, and critical habitat), and exposure to natural hazards. The overall priority score of NPDs is calculated based on user-defined weights for each of the GCIE impact scores. Besides ranking NPDs, the tool can also be used to estimate the energy-storage feasibility (battery, hydrogen, and pump-storage hydropower) at each of the potential sites.
13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
Basis for Dose and Reactor Safety Design Criteria for Army Regulation AR 50–7 and DA Pamphlet
This report describes the basis used to develop the radiological dose acceptance and design criteria contained in the draft updates to Army Regulation 50–7 (AR 50–7) Army Reactor Program and its accompanying draft Department of the Army (DA) Pamphlet (PAM), Army Reactor Program Procedures. These criteria will apply to Army nuclear reactors that fall under AR 50–7 and its accompanying DA PAM and ensure alignment with the overall objectives of the Army Reactor Program. The development basis for the radiological dose and design criteria supports a modern, technology-neutral, risk-informed, and performance-based approach to Army regulation of reactors and the demonstration of “adequate protection of the public.” To establish these criteria that support the Army’s unique operational requirements, multiple well-known and well-established standards and their supporting documentation were reviewed to ensure consistency with existing regulatory safety levels, including guidance from U.S. and international sources. These include the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (NRC’s) regulations and policy, the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission’s (CNSC’s) regulatory documents, the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA’s) safety standards, as well as industry input that is tailored specifically to advanced microreactors. This report walks through the key definitions and associated references used for these criteria, which are outlined in Section 2.0. Based on these definitions, the dose acceptance criteria were established for various receptors for routine reactor operations (Section 3.2), design basis accidents (Section 3.3), and beyond design basis accidents (Section 3.4). Comparisons of multiple national and international dose limits are provided in these sections. Lastly, Section 4.0 outlines the reactor safety design criteria contained in the draft DA PAM and their associated bases.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
Diagnosing autonomous vehicle driving criteria with an adversarial evolutionary algorithm
We repurposed an adversarial evolutionary algorithm, Gremlin, from finding driving scenarios where a model of an autonomous vehicle drove poorly to troubleshooting driving quality evaluation criteria. We evaluated the driving performance of a "perfect driver" robot in a virtual town environment using the same fitness criteria intended for a deep learner (DL) trained driver. We found that the fitness evaluation criteria poorly handled turns, and used Gremlin to iteratively improve that criteria. We were confident that the same criteria could then be applied to the DL-based models as originally intended, and that this approach could be used as a general means of troubleshooting autonomous vehicle driving criteria.
Coletti, Mark↗
Evaluating Dynamic Stall-Onset Criteria for Mixed and Trailing-Edge Stall
We evaluate two leading-edge-based dynamic stall-onset criteria (namely, the maximum magnitudes of the leading-edge suction parameter and the boundary enstrophy flux) for mixed and trailing-edge stall. These criteria have been shown to successfully predict the onset of leading-edge stall at Reynolds numbers of [Formula: see text], where the leading-edge suction drops abruptly. However, for mixed/trailing-edge stall, leading-edge suction tends to persist even when there is significant trailing-edge reversed flow and stall is underway, necessitating further investigation into the effectiveness of these criteria. Using wall-resolved large-eddy simulations and the unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes method, we simulate one leading-edge stall and three mixed/trailing-edge stall cases at Reynolds numbers of [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text]. We contrast the progression of flow features such as trailing-edge separation and vortex formation across different stall types and evaluate the stall-onset criteria relative to critical points in the flow. We find that the criteria nearly coincide with the instance of leading-edge suction collapse and are reached in advance of dynamic stall vortex formation and lift stall for all four cases. We conclude that the two criteria effectively signal dynamic stall onset in cases where the dynamic stall vortex plays a prominent role.
Engineering↗
A multi-criteria CCUS screening evaluation of the Gulf of Mexico, USA
Continued research into reservoir characterization along with offshore carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) transportation and infrastructure assets is needed to facilitate development of safe and successful carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) projects. This paper outlines a multi-criteria evaluation methodology that incorporates disparate sets of quantitative, spatially variable data into a decision-making framework for screening the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) outer continental shelf (OCS) for potentially viable CO 2 storage and enhanced oil recovery (EOR) sites. Criteria categories include favorable geologic characteristics, logistics, and potential risks. Data compiled for 14 criteria from several publicly available geographic information system (GIS) layers was aggregated over 2559 spatially balanced points across the study area using the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL)-developed Cumulative Spatial Impact Layers™ (CSIL) GIS tool. Criteria are weighted by qualitative expert opinion relative to their perceived importance to given scenarios— the output of combined criteria values and weights enables regional CO 2 storage suitability differentiation. The methodology considers both technical and non-technical factors impacting CCUS decision-making. The flexible methodology enables a systematic approach to regional ranking at high spatial resolution over a large study domain. Additionally, the framework enables high-grading of priority sites that warrant further characterization and follow-on analysis. Areas along the Louisiana coast and Mississippi River Delta consistently rank high for all scenarios largely a result of the favorable geology with the potential for stacked storage, as well as the density of existing pipelines and platforms, and proximity to several onshore CO 2 sources. High-graded regions for the CO 2 EOR-related scenarios are typically located further offshore towards the middle and edge of the OCS compared to higher priority regions for the geologic storage scenarios which fall closer to the Louisiana coastline.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Performance Criteria for Capture and/or Immobilization Technologies (Revision 1)
The capture and subsequent immobilization of regulated volatile radionuclides from the off-gas streams of a used nuclear fuel (UNF) reprocessing facility has been a topic of substantial research interest for the US Department of Energy and its international counterparts. Removal of specific radionuclides from the plant effluent streams before discharge to the environment is required to meet regulations set forth by the US Environmental Protection Agency. Upon removal, the radionuclides, as well as associated sorbents that cannot be regenerated in a cost-effective manner, are destined for conversion to a waste form. Research in separation and capture methodologies has included a wide range of technology types, and studies of waste forms are correspondingly diverse. In considering the future development and implementation of both sorbents and waste forms, it is necessary to identify benchmark measures of performance to objectively evaluate each sorbent system or waste form. Sets of performance criteria and associated metrics have been developed for sorbent and waste form evaluation. These criteria address physical, radiological, and chemical characteristics, technical practicality, technical maturity, cost, and, for sorbents, system performance. The criteria and metrics appear to be robust and should be applicable despite the eventual waste classification (as either high- or low-level waste). They are flexible enough to address both aqueous reprocessing and electrochemical reprocessing of UNF. These criteria sets can serve as tools to evaluate performance at multiple stages within the development process, and in this revision (Revision 1) they have been used to assess technologies relating to krypton/xenon separations and iodine capture from off-gas streams arising from UNF reprocessing. Assessment of krypton/xenon separations using engineered forms of two zeolite minerals (silver mordenite and hydrogen mordenite in a polyacrylonitrile-based binder [AgZ-PAN/HZ-PAN]) found that the zeolite-based separation is relatively advanced in its development, but several key issues require resolution. First, desorption processes for both krypton and xenon require refinement to provide an understanding of the product purity that can be achieved. Second, adsorption rate data is needed in order to calculate the bed depth required for effective separation. Finally, it is strongly recommended that a technical review of krypton/xenon separation by AgZ-PAN/HZ-PAN be performed to synergize available data and assess the cost savings and operational benefits that may be realized from implementation of this technology. Assessment of metal organic frameworks (MOFs) for their use in the separation of krypton/xenon found that the ideal separation would be performed using a single-column system with a MOF selective for krypton over xenon. A robust research effort should work to identify a krypton-selective MOF designed to operate at temperatures of approximately 0°C or higher, which could be preferred over cryogenic krypton/xenon capture for used fuel reprocessing off-gas streams. In the case of the CaSDB-MOF (the most well-understood xenon sorbent to date), two issues are judged of high importance. First, xenon breakthrough capacity for the CaSDB-MOF in prototypical conditions should be determined. Preliminary research indicates that breakthrough may be near immediate, presenting a substantial obstacle in separative system design. Second, development of desorption methodology should be performed to determine regeneration time, energy requirements, and the product stream composition. Silver-based sorbents (AgZ and AgAero) for use in iodine capture from the dissolver off-gas were evaluated against the established criteria. These sorbents are significantly better understood for this application as a result of research efforts over the past decade. The potential implementation of AgAero at a large scale is hindered by its physical degradation by components of the dissolver off-gas stream. Less is known about the adsorption of iodine by these sorbents from other off-gas streams in the plant. Initial experimental efforts have been closely coordinated in an effort to understand organic iodine (such as would be found in the vessel off-gas) adsorption by AgZ and AgAero. Future work should expand this experimental program, and analysis of other reprocessing facility off-gas streams such as the vitrification off-gas stream should be conducted to better understand other potential applications for iodine sorbents. A review of iodine waste form development shows that this area is diverse and that multiple promising waste forms have been identified for the immobilization of radioactive iodine. Efforts related to the direct conversion of iodine sorbents (including AgZ and AgAero) should be continued because of the advantages of direct conversion in a waste management strategy and other sorbents should continue to be advanced as merited.
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
Application of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Techniques for Informing Select Agent Designation and Decision Making
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Select Agent Program establishes a list of biological agents and toxins that potentially threaten public health and safety, the procedures governing the possession, utilization, and transfer of those agents, and training requirements for entities working with them. Every 2 years the Program reviews the select agent list, utilizing subject matter expert (SME) assessments to rank the agents. In this study, we explore the applicability of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques and logic tree analysis to support the CDC Select Agent Program biennial review process, applying the approach broadly to include non-select agents to evaluate its generality. We conducted a literature search for over 70 pathogens against 15 criteria for assessing public health and bioterrorism risk and documented the findings for archiving. The most prominent data gaps were found for aerosol stability and human infectious dose by inhalation and ingestion routes. Technical review of published data and associated scoring recommendations by pathogen-specific SMEs was found to be critical for accuracy, particularly for pathogens with very few known cases, or where proxy data (e.g., from animal models or similar organisms) were used to address data gaps. Analysis of results obtained from a two-dimensional plot of weighted scores for difficulty of attack (i.e., exposure and production criteria) vs. consequences of an attack (i.e., consequence and mitigation criteria) provided greater fidelity for understanding agent placement compared to a 1-to-n ranking and was used to define a region in the upper right-hand quadrant for identifying pathogens for consideration as select agents. A sensitivity analysis varied the numerical weights attributed to various properties of the pathogens to identify potential quantitative (x and y) thresholds for classifying select agents. The results indicate while there is some clustering of agent scores to suggest thresholds, there are still pathogens that score close to any threshold, suggesting that thresholding “by eye” may not be sufficient. The sensitivity analysis indicates quantitative thresholds are plausible, and there is good agreement of the analytical results with select agent designations. A second analytical approach that applied the data using a logic tree format to rule out pathogens for consideration as select agents arrived at similar conclusions.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
Application of multi-criteria decision analysis techniques and decision support framework for informing plant select agent designation and decision making
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Division of Agricultural Select Agents and Toxins (DASAT) established a list of biological agents (Select Agents List) that threaten crops of economic importance to the United States and regulates the procedures governing containment, incident response, and the security of entities working with them. Every 2 years the USDA DASAT reviews their select agent list, utilizing assessments by subject matter experts (SMEs) to rank the agents. We explored the applicability of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques and a decision support framework (DSF) to support the USDA DASAT biennial review process. The evaluation includes both current and non-select agents to provide a robust assessment. We initially conducted a literature review of 16 pathogens against 9 criteria for assessing plant health and bioterrorism risk and documented the findings to support this analysis. Technical review of published data and associated scoring recommendations by pathogen-specific SMEs was found to be critical for ensuring accuracy. Scoring criteria were adopted to ensure consistency. The MCDA supported the expectation that select agents would rank high on the relative risk scale when considering the agricultural consequences of a bioterrorism attack; however, application of analytical thresholds as a basis for designating select agents led to some exceptions to current designations. A second analytical approach used agent-specific data to designate key criteria in a DSF logic tree format to identify pathogens of low concern that can be ruled out for further consideration as select agents. Both the MCDA and DSF approaches arrived at similar conclusions, suggesting the value of employing the two analytical approaches to add robustness for decision making.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Hydromechanical Modeling of Fault Rupture in Geologic CO 2 Sequestration: A Comparison of Two Failure Criteria
Abstract The large‐scale implementation of geological carbon sequestration has raised concerns about potential fault activation and induced seismicity, which could compromise storage integrity and pose seismic risks. We theoretically compared two failure criteria, Mohr‐Coulomb (MC) and Modified Cam‐Clay criteria (MCC), to assess fault rupture during CO 2 storage. Both criteria characterize fault behavior in a specific stress regime but differ in reducing the complexity of fault rupture to a few key mechanisms. Using a coupled hydromechanical model, we demonstrate that the choice of a failure criterion and the physics of fault weakening associated with these criteria strongly condition fault response to a given fluid injection. MC mainly relates rupture to friction, while MCC relates rupture to fault poro‐plasticity. Our findings highlight that the selection of a failure criterion, being inherently subjective, can significantly alter the predicted fault behavior during CO 2 storage, thereby impacting the reliability of geomechanical risk assessments.
Cao, M. [Energy Geosciences Division Lawrence Berk↗
PACT Module Design Acceptance Criteria (Industry)
For the PACT center to both develop testing protocols and provide service to the metal halide perovskite (MHP) PV community, PACT will seek modules (mini and full-sized) for testing purposes. To ensure both safety and high-quality samples PACT publishes acceptance criteria to define the minimum characteristics of modules the center will accept for testing. These criteria help to ensure we are accepting technologies that are compatible with our technical facilities and testing equipment and can transition to large scale commercial manufacturing. This module design acceptance criteria document is for industry partners and is different from the acceptance criteria for research partners (academia, national laboratories) partners.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
PACT Module Design Acceptance Criteria (Research)
For the PACT center to both develop testing protocols and provide service to the metal halide perovskite (MHP) PV community, PACT will seek modules (mini and full-sized) for testing purposes. To ensure both safety and high-quality samples PACT publishes acceptance criteria to define the minimum characteristics of modules the center will accept for testing. These criteria help to ensure we are accepting technologies that are compatible with our technical facilities and testing equipment and can transition to large scale commercial manufacturing. This module design acceptance criteria document is for research partners (academia, national laboratories) and is different from the acceptance criteria for industry partners.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Regulatory Treatment of Low Frequency External Events under a Risk-Informed Performance-Based Licensing Pathway: Safety Criteria Evaluation
There has been recent progress in the development of risk-informed performance-based (RIPB) design and licensing approaches, which leverage the insights gained from detailed risk assessments and utilize performance-based metrics to permit flexibility and innovation. The RIPB approaches have included the probabilistic treatment of external hazards, including low frequency events that are beyond the design basis. A preceding study conducted in FY21 noted that there are certain challenges to the probabilistic treatment of low frequency external events, which are primarily the result of uncertainty in the hazard curve and the associated plant response to rare, severe events. The current work expands on the previous study by examining the regulatory safety criteria contained within draft 10 CFR Part 53 and associated draft RIPB seismic design guidance. The evaluation identified potential challenges in demonstrating satisfaction of the safety criteria for low frequency external events, with specific difficulties associated with demonstrating compliance with cumulative safety criteria metrics, such as the quantitative health objectives (QHOs). Non-LWRs are expected to utilize the direct calculation of offsite consequence, rather than use surrogates, for comparison to the QHOs, which can be particularly challenging as the previously identified uncertainties are compounded by uncertainties in the response of the neighboring population. The current work details this evaluation and key findings. The central recommendation from this effort is that it is necessary to develop an approach for demonstrating compliance with the safety criteria in draft Part 53 that addresses the key challenges while providing flexibility to applicants.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
Application of multi-criteria decision analysis techniques and decision support framework for informing select agent designation for agricultural animal pathogens
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Division of Agricultural Select Agents and Toxins (DASAT) established a list of biological agents and toxins (Select Agent List) that potentially threaten agricultural health and safety, the procedures governing the transfer of those agents, and training requirements for entities working with them. Every 2 years the USDA DASAT reviews the Select Agent List, using subject matter experts (SMEs) to perform an assessment and rank the agents. To assist the USDA DASAT biennial review process, we explored the applicability of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques and a Decision Support Framework (DSF) in a logic tree format to identify pathogens for consideration as select agents, applying the approach broadly to include non-select agents to evaluate its robustness and generality. We conducted a literature review of 41 pathogens against 21 criteria for assessing agricultural threat, economic impact, and bioterrorism risk and documented the findings to support this assessment. The most prominent data gaps were those for aerosol stability and animal infectious dose by inhalation and ingestion routes. Technical review of published data and associated scoring recommendations by pathogen-specific SMEs was found to be critical for accuracy, particularly for pathogens with very few known cases, or where proxy data (e.g., from animal models or similar organisms) were used to address data gaps. The MCDA analysis supported the intuitive sense that select agents should rank high on the relative risk scale when considering agricultural health consequences of a bioterrorism attack. However, comparing select agents with non-select agents indicated that there was not a clean break in scores to suggest thresholds for designating select agents, requiring subject matter expertise collectively to establish which analytical results were in good agreement to support the intended purpose in designating select agents. The DSF utilized a logic tree approach to identify pathogens that are of sufficiently low concern that they can be ruled out from consideration as a select agent. In contrast to the MCDA approach, the DSF rules out a pathogen if it fails to meet even one criteria threshold. Both the MCDA and DSF approaches arrived at similar conclusions, suggesting the value of employing the two analytical approaches to add robustness for decision making.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
Convergence Criteria for Multiphysics Simulations
The behavior of engineered systems is often influenced by multiple physical phenomena, such as mechanical deformation, heat transfer, and chemical species transport and reactions. There are often strong interactions between these phenomena, and there is increasing interest in applying coupled-physics models to improve understanding of physical behavior under complex environmental conditions. Multiple simulation frameworks that facilitate coupled-physics simulations are in widespread use, and these employ a variety of techniques to account for interactions between those physics. Many frameworks solve the physics models independently and transfer results between them. Alternatively, a single monolithic system of equations for every physics model can be formed and solved. Each of these approaches has its benefits and drawbacks, and the optimal approach varies depending on the nature of the problem. The open-source MOOSE framework was developed targeting solution of large-scale multiphysics problems. Although it provides options for all these coupling approaches, its standard approach for multiphysics solutions is to form and solve a single monolithic system of equations containing the unknowns for all physics models. MOOSE provides a streamlined approach for users to define the solution variables, the terms in the partial differential equations pertaining to each variable, and interactions between solution variables. One aspect of the monolithic solution approach that can be problematic, however, is defining appropriate convergence criteria for the nonlinear system. A standard approach is to determine convergence is to simply take a norm of the residual vector corresponding to the full vector of unknowns. However, if the residual vector contains variables for multiple physics models, the magnitudes of those variables can differ significantly, and the variables can converge at significantly different rates from each other. It is important to ensure that the variables for each of the physics are converged, and also ensure that the convergence criteria are not excessively stringent in cases when there is little change in the solution. This talk presents representative multiphysics problems to highlight these issues, and shows strategies for convergence criteria in MOOSE that are robust for multiphysics models under a variety of conditions.
97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Multi-criteria thermal resilience certification scheme for indoor built environments during heat waves
With climate change, the indoor built environment is expected to significantly influence the occupant's safety and well-being. A novel multi-criteria thermal resilience certification scheme for indoor built environments during extreme heat events is proposed in this paper. The certification scheme considers overheating, thermal comfort, heat stress, and hygrothermal discomfort in built environments. These criteria are quantified using key performance indicators like indoor overheating degree, hours of exceedance, wet-bulb globe temperature, and heat index, respectively. This scheme is developed based on existing best practices like standards, rating systems, and literature. The scheme is implemented on a benchmark building energy performance model for detached post-World War II dwellings in Belgium as a case study using weather data measured from the City of Brussels. The indoor overheating in the reference dwelling is assessed with a static threshold of 27 °C for the bedrooms and adaptive thresholds for other areas. The analysis found that the building performance is within the defined threshold levels throughout the heat wave duration for all criteria. Therefore, the reference dwelling got a maximum attainable score of four points and is rated five-star for thermal resilience during heat waves. The proposed certification scheme is intended as a standardized framework and highlights the need for further revisions in building performance policies and guidelines.
Climate change↗
Characterization and rank assignment criteria for the anaerobic fungi (Neocallimastigomycota)
Establishing a solid taxonomic framework is crucial for enabling discovery and documentation efforts. This ensures effective communication between scientists as well as reproducibility of results between laboratories, and facilitates the exchange and preservation of biological material. Such framework can only be achieved by establishing clear criteria for taxa characterization and rank assignment. Within the anaerobic fungi (phylum Neocallimastigomycota), the need for such criteria is especially vital. Difficulties associated with their isolation, maintenance and long-term storage often result in limited availability and loss of previously described taxa. To this end, we provide here a list of morphological, microscopic, phylogenetic and phenotypic criteria for assessment and documentation when characterizing newly obtained Neocallimastigomycota isolates. We also recommend a polyphasic rank-assignment scheme for novel genus-, species- and strain-level designations for newly obtained Neocallimastigomycota isolates.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Improved information criteria for Bayesian model averaging in lattice field theory
Bayesian model averaging is a practical method for dealing with uncertainty due to model specification. Use of this technique requires the estimation of model probability weights. Here, we revisit the derivation of estimators for these model weights. Use of the Kullback-Leibler divergence as a starting point leads naturally to a number of alternative information criteria suitable for Bayesian model weight estimation. We explore three such criteria, known to the statistics literature before, in detail: a Bayesian analog of the Akaike information criterion which we call the BAIC, the Bayesian predictive information criterion, and the posterior predictive information criterion (PPIC). We compare the use of these information criteria in numerical analysis problems common in lattice field theory calculations. We find that the PPIC has the most appealing theoretical properties and can give the best performance in terms of model-averaging uncertainty, particularly in the presence of noisy data, while the BAIC is a simple and reliable alternative.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗