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Observed Land Impacts on Clouds, Water Vapor, and Rainfall at Continental Scales

How do the continents affect large-scale hydrological cycles? How important can one continent be to the climate system? To address these questions, five years of National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observations, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observations, and the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) global precipitation analysis, were used to assess the land impacts on clouds, ~ainfall, and water vapor at continental scales. At these scales, Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) and continentally averaged analyses illustrate that continents as integrated regions enhance the seasonality of atmospheric and surface hydrological parameters. Specifically, the continents of Eurasia and North America enhance the seasonality of cloud optical thickness, cirrus fraction, rainfall, and water vapor. Over land, both liquid water and ice cloud effective radii are smaller than over oceans, primarily because land has more aerosol particles. In addition, different continents have similar impacts on hydrological variables in terms of seasonality, but differ in magnitude. For example, in winter, North America and Eurasia increase cloud optical thickness to 17.5 and 16, respectively, while in summer, Eurasia has much smaller cloud optical thicknesses than North An1erica. Such different land impacts are determined by each continent's geographical condition, land cover, and land use. These new understandings help further address the land-ocean contrasts on global climate, help validate global climate model simulated land-atmosphere interactions, and shed light on interpreting climate change over land.

Jin, Menglin↗

New Perspectives on Blowing Snow Transport, Sublimation, and Layer Thermodynamic Structure over Antarctica

Blowing snow over Antarctica is a widespread and frequent event. Satellite remote sensing using lidar has shown that blowing snow occurs over 70% of the time over large areas of Antarctica in winter. The transport and sublimation of blowing snow are important terms in the ice sheet mass balance equation and the latter is also an important part of the hydrological cycle. Until now the only way to estimate the magnitude of these processes was through model parameterization. We present a technique that uses direct satellite observations of blowing snow and model (MERRA-2) temperature and humidity fields to compute both transport and sublimation of blowing snow over Antarctica for the period 2006 to 2016. The results show a larger annual continent-wide integrated sublimation than current published estimates and a significant transport of snow from continent to ocean. The talk will also include the lidar backscatter structure of blowing snow layers that often reach heights of 200 to 300 m as well as the first dropsonde measurements of temperature, moisture and wind through blowing snow layers.

Palm, Steve↗

Observed Land Impacts on Clouds, Water Vapor, and Rainfall at Continental Scales

How do the continents affect large-scale hydrological cycles? How important can one continent be to the climate system? To address these questions, 4-years of National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observations, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observations, and the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) global precipitation analysis, were used to assess the land impacts on clouds, rainfall, and water vapor at continental scales. At these scales, the observations illustrate that continents are integrated regions that enhance the seasonality of atmospheric and surface hydrological parameters. Specifically, the continents of Eurasia and North America enhance the seasonality of cloud optical thickness, cirrus fraction, rainfall, and water vapor. Over land, both liquid water and ice cloud effective radii are smaller than over oceans primarily because land has more aerosol particles. In addition, different continents have similar impacts on hydrological variables in terms of seasonality, but differ in magnitude. For example, in winter, North America and Eurasia increase cloud optical thickness to 17.5 and 16, respectively, while in summer, Eurasia has much smaller cloud optical thicknesses than North America. Such different land impacts are determined by each continent s geographical condition, land cover, and land use. These new understandings help further address the land-ocean contrasts on global climate, help validate global climate model simulated land-atmosphere interactions, and help interpret climate change over land.

Jin, Menglin↗

Integrated Grating Spectrometer

Proposed integrated grating spectrometer made in waveguide layer on silicon wafer. Occupies area of about 2 centimeters to 2nd power on wafer 0.4 mm thick. Operates in visible spectrum (wavelengths of 400 to 700 nm) and blazed to diffract in first order. Array of integrated grating spectrometers performs spectral analysis of picture elements along line. Optical fiber couples light from each picture element into separate integrated spectrometer. Technique enables continous independent variation, along grating, of pitch, curvature, and blaze angle. Grating designed to have large numerical aperture, zero aberration at two selected wavelengths, and very low aberration at intermediate wavelengths.

Lang, Robert J.↗

On the Origin of Monsoon

The notion that the continental-scale land-sea contrast is the main reason that monsoon circulation exists has been a long-held belief. The purpose of this paper is to point out that this notion should be substantially modified. The central idea of this notion states that in summer, radiative heating of the continent, say Asia, gives rise to a continental-scale thermal low and surrounding the thermal low in its southeast direction the low level wind flows in from south-west. This low-level inflow creates a convergence of moisture, which maintains the cumulus convection. And in winter, radiative cooling of continent gives rise to a thermal high and to its southeast the low-level wind is from northeast. The mechanism in this interpretation does undoubtedly exist. However, this mechanism, though believed to be the main driving force of monsoon, has not been tested in numerical experiments. There has been an increasing recognition in the recent years that monsoon is inextricably tied to the heating in the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). We propose that the main cause of monsoon is ITCZ's being substantially away from the equator. A brief qualitative explanation of why the ITCZ can be a source of monsoon circulation can be offered based on the circulation field forced by the ITCZ heating. The existence of the ITCZ's does not always have to rely on land-sea contrast on the continental scale. This is hinted in the fact that in February the ITCZ close to Australia (and its associated monsoon circulation) covers a longitudinal range several times as long as that of Australia and thus cannot possibly be caused mainly by the land-sea contrast associated with Australia. Yet, this cannot be used as a proof that the ITCZ in the Asian summer monsoon is not mainly due to land-sea contrast. One of the purposes of this work is to provide a convincing proof. In this work the role of land-sea contrast in the origin of monsoon is examined through numerical simulation with the Goddard general circulation model. The Asian and Australian monsoon circulations are obtained in a four-year integration and then the integration is repeated with Asia, the maritime continent, and Australia replaced by ocean. The sea surface temperature (SST) at each affected grid is specified as the SST at the first grid to the east that is an ocean grid in the first experiment. The latter integration shows that the monsoon circulation pattern over where south Asia and Australia were and the surrounding region has largely remained. The results discount land-sea contrast as the main cause of Asian monsoon. A third experiment is the same as the first except that the topography of Asia, the maritime continent, and Australia is reduced to zero. This experiment reveals that the difference between the first two experiments is due more to the removal of topography than to the removal of land-sea contrast. August precipitation is shown averaged over the last three years of each of the three experiments. They show that the Asian monsoon rainy region is largely intact in the second experiment and the difference between the second and the third experiment is mainly in the longitudinal location of the maximum precipitation. Additionally, in Asian and Australian winter monsoons land-sea contrast also plays only a modifying role. Although land-sea contrast plays only a modifying role in Asian and Australian (and Central American including Mexican) monsoons, it is the main reason that ITCZ (and thus monsoon) exists in Africa and South America. Thus, monsoons can be classified into two groups depending on whether land-sea contrast plays a major role.

Chao, Winston C.↗

Preferential rifting of continents - A source of displaced terranes

Lithospheric rifting, while prevalent in the continents, rarely occurs in oceanic regions. To explain this preferential rifting of continents, the total strength of different lithospheres is compared by integrating the limits of lithospheric stress with depth. Comparisons of total strength indicate that continental lithosphere is weaker than oceanic lithosphere by about a factor of three. Also, a thickened crust can halve the total strength of normal continental lithosphere. Because the weakest area acts as a stress guide, any rifting close to an ocean-continent boundary would prefer a continental pathway. This results in the formation of small continental fragments or microplates that, once accreted back to a continent during subduction, are seen as displaced terranes. In addition, the large crustal thicknesses associated with suture zones would make such areas likely locations for future rifting episodes. This results in the tendency of new oceans to open along the suture where a former ocean had closed.

Vink, G. E.↗

ACE-Asia Aerosol Optical Depth and Water Vapor Measured by Airborne Sunphotometers and Related to Other Measurements and Calculations

In the Spring 2001 phase of the Asian Pacific Regional Aerosol Characterization Experiment (ACE-Asia), the 6-channel NASA Ames Airborne Tracking Sunphotometer (AATS-6) operated on 15 of the 19 research flights of the NCAR C-130, while its 14-channel counterpart (AATS- 14) flew successfully on all 18 research flights of the CIRPAS Twin Otter. ACE-Asia studied aerosol outflow from the Asian continent to the Pacific basin. It was designed to integrate suborbital and satellite measurements and models so as to reduce the uncertainty in calculations of the climate forcing due to aerosols. AATS-6 and AATS-14 measured solar beam transmission at 6 and 14 wavelengths (380-1021 and 354-1558 nm, respectively), yielding aerosol optical depth (AOD) spectra and column water vapor (CWV). Vertical differentiation in profiles yielded aerosol extinction spectra and water vapor concentration. The wavelength dependence of these AOD and extinction spectra indicates that supermicron dust was often a major component of the ACE-Asia aerosol. Frequently this dust-containing aerosol extended to high altitudes. For example, in AATS- 14 profiles analyzed to date, 36% of full-column AOD at 525 nm was above 3 km. In contrast, only 10% of CWV was above 3 km. Analyses and applications of AATS-6 and AATS-14 data to date include comparisons to (i) extinction products derived using in situ measurements, (ii) extinction profiles derived from lidar measurements, and (iii) AOD retrievals from the Multi-angle Imaging Spectro-Radiometer (MISR) aboard the TERRA satellite. Other planned collaborative studies include comparisons to results from size spectrometers, chemical measurements, other satellite sensors, flux radiometers, and chemical transport models. Early results of these studies will be presented.

Livingston, John M.↗

Airborne Sunphotometer Measurements of Aerosol Optical Depth and Water Vapor in ACE-Asia and Their Comparisons to Correlative Measurements

In the Spring 2001 phase of the Asian Pacific Regional Aerosol Characterization Experiment (ACE-Asia), the 6-channel NASA Ames Airborne Tracking Sunphotometer (AATS-6) operated on 15 of the 19 research flights of the NCAR C-130, while its 14-channel counterpart (AATS-14) flew successfully on all 19 research flights of the CIRPAS Twin Otter. ACE-Asia studied aerosol outflow from the Asian continent to the Pacific basin. It was designed to integrate suborbital and satellite measurements and models to reduce the uncertainty in calculations of the climate forcing due to aerosols. AATS-6 and AATS-14 measured solar beam transmission at six and 14 wavelengths (380-1021 and 354-1558 nm, respectively), yielding aerosol optical depth (AOD) spectra and columnar water vapor (CWV). Vertical differentiation in profiles yielded aerosol extinction spectra and water vapor concentration. In this paper, we plan to present examples of the following, preliminary findings that are based in part on our airborne sunphotometer measurements: (1) The wavelength dependence of sunphotometer-derived AOD and extinction indicates that supermicron dust was often a major component of the aerosol, frequently extending to high altitudes. The percentage of full-column AOD (525 nm) that Jay above 3 km was typically 34+/-13%. In contrast, the analogous percentage of columnar water vapor was only 10+/-4%; (2) Initial comparison studies between AOD data obtained by AATS-6 and AATS-14 during coordinated low-level flight legs show agreement well within the instruments' error bars; (3) Aerosol extinction has been derived from airborne in situ measurements of scattering (nephelometers) and absorption (particle soot/ absorption photometer, PSAP) or calculated from particle size distribution measurements (mobility analyzers and aerodynamic particle sizers). Comparison with corresponding extinction values derived from the Ames airborne sunphotometer measurements shows good agreement for the vertical distribution of aerosol layers. However, the level of agreement in absolute magnitude of the derived aerosol extinction/optical depth varied among the aerosol layers sampled; (4) Initial comparisons of sunphotometer and satellite-derived AOD using SeaWiFS, MISR and AVHRR show promising results. We also plan to include comparisons with MODIS and TOMS: (5) Initial comparisons of sunphotometer-derived AOD and aerosol extinction profiles with lidars in Tokyo and on a ship show reasonable agreement.

Schmid, B.↗

Airborne Sunphotometry of Aerosol Optical Depth and Columnar Water Vapor During ACE-Asia

During the Intensive Field Campaign (IFC) of the Aerosol Characterization Experiment - Asia (ACE-Asia), March-May 2001, the 6-channel NASA Ames Airborne Tracking Sunphotometer (AATS-6) operated during 15 of the 19 research flights aboard the NCAR C- 130, while its 14-channel counterpart (AATS- 14) was flown successfully on all 18 research flights of a Twin Otter aircraft operated by the Center for Interdisciplinary Remotely Piloted Aircraft Studies (CIRPAS), Monterey, CA. ACE-Asia was the fourth in a series of aerosol characterization experiments and focused on aerosol outflow from the Asian continent to the Pacific basin. Each ACE was designed to integrate suborbital and satellite measurements and models so as to reduce the uncertainty in calculations of the climate forcing due to aerosols. The Ames Airborne Tracking Sunphotometers measured solar beam transmission at 6 (380-1021 nm, AATS-6) and 14 wavelengths (353-1558 nm, AATS-14) respectively, yielding aerosol optical depth (AOD) spectra and column water vapor (CWV). Vertical differentiation in profiles yielded aerosol extinction and water vapor concentration. The wavelength dependence of AOD and extinction indicates that supermicron dust was often a major component of the aerosol. Frequently this dust-containing aerosol extended to high altitudes. For example, in data flights analyzed to date 34 +/- 13% of full-column AOD(525 nm) was above 3 km. In contrast, only 10 +/- 4% of CWV was above 3 km. In this paper, we will show first sunphotometer-derived results regarding the spatial variation of AOD and CWV, as well as the vertical distribution of aerosol extinction and water vapor concentration. Preliminary comparison studies between our AOD/aerosol extinction data and results from: (1) extinction products derived using in situ measurements and (2) AOD retrievals using the Multi-angle Imaging Spectro-Radiometer (MISR) aboard the TERRA satellite will also be presented.

Redemann, Jens↗

Regional Variations in the Diurnal Cycle of Tropical Precipitation as Represented by IMERG, ERA5, and Spaceborne Ku Radar

The diurnal cycle of precipitation is highly regional and is typically a product of multiple competing effects that can be highly localized. The diurnal cycle in high precipitation regions such as the Amazon and the Maritime Continent are of particular interest, especially due to the complex coastal effects which take place over the Maritime Continent. The high spatial and temporal resolution provided by the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission (IMERG) dataset, is used in this study to examine the fine-scale features of the diurnal cycle in these regions. Using an 18-year (2000 – 2018) record of IMERG precipitation observations, diurnal and semidiurnal phase and amplitude are calculated using a fast Fourier transform (FFT) method on precipitation averaged for each half-hour of the day at 0.1°x0.1° spatial resolution. We first introduce an objective method of identifying locations where the diurnal signals are robust and strong. Clear patterns of precipitation phase propagation with distance from shore are shown over both regions, with the diurnal phase and amplitude exhibiting a strong dependence on the distance from the coastline. Semidiurnal cycles are generally weaker than the diurnal cycle except in some isolated locations. Similar analysis is also conducted on the ERA5 reanalysis data in order to evaluate the model’s representation of the precipitation diurnal cycle. The model captures the broad scale patterns of diurnal variability but does not capture all the fine scale patterns nor the exact timing that is observed by IMERG. Comparisons are also made to a long record Ku radar dataset created by combining Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and GPM observations, thus providing an additional point of comparison for the timing of the ERA5 precipitation peak, since the timing precipitation can be different, even in between observational datasets.

L J Hayden↗

Sedimentary processes and crustal cycling on Venus

Sediment exists on the Venus surface. It is observed in Venera images between outcrops and boulders of sedimentary rocks. Sediment is produced by pyroclastic volcanism and chemical weathering. Chemical weathering is driven by an enhanced activity of water and an elevated surface temperature. Sediment is transported by wind action and lithified by cementration and diagenesis. Cementation may be by carbonate or silica cement; diagenesis may be products of chemical weathering acting as cement, or by compaction and recrystallization of sediment into a texture with interlocking grains. Sediment may be transported from the top of sialic continents (such as Ishtar) to the modal plains where it is deposited, lithified, and integrated into thy local crust. As new layers are added, the bottom of the crust melts and is, in part, returned to the mantle. A steady-state chemical exchange might exist by this mechanism of crustal cycling that links atmosphere, continents, modal plains, and mantle.

Warner, J. L.↗

The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has been working since 2010 to construct a protocol-based framework enabling regional assessments (led by regional experts and modelers) that can provide consistent inputs to global economic and integrated assessment models. These global models can then relay important global-level information that drive regional decision-making and outcomes throughout an interconnected agricultural system. AgMIPs community of nearly 800 climate, crop, livestock, economics, and IT experts has improved the state-of-the-art through model intercomparisons, validation exercises, regional integrated assessments, and the launch of AgMIP programs on all six arable continents. AgMIP is now launching Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security to link global and regional crop and economic models using a protocol-based framework. The CGRA protocols are being developed to utilize historical observations, climate projections, and RCPsSSPs from CMIP5 (and potentially CMIP6), and will examine stakeholder-driven agricultural development and adaptation scenarios to provide cutting-edge assessments of climate changes impact on agriculture and food security. These protocols will build on the foundation of established protocols from AgMIPs 30+ activities, and will emphasize the use of multiple models, scenarios, and scales to enable an accurate assessment of related uncertainties. The CGRA is also designed to provide the outputs necessary to feed into integrated assessment models (IAMs), nutrition and food security assessments, nitrogen and carbon cycle models, and additional impact-sector assessments (e.g., water resources, land-use, biomes, urban areas). This presentation will describe the current status of CGRA planning and initial prototype experiments to demonstrate key aspects of the protocols before wider implementation ahead of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report.

models↗

Artemis, Gateway, the Return to the Moon and Forward to Mars for Heliophysics

Over a 100 years ago we humans first landed on Antarctica. At the time we could not have imagined the heliophysics scientific gains that would be got from this continent. Sixty-five years ago we had the first international geophysical year aimed at deployment of instrumentation across this southern most continent and around the globe in recognition of the potential advancements from this integrated system of measurements. This potential has been realized and continues to grow as Antarctica returns science results across most disciplines, inspires artists and athletes, and has touched the lives of many through these gains. Today we are on the precipice of a future new Antarctica with the launch of Artemis 1 and plans for the return of humans to the lunar surface and human exploration to Mars. Heliophysics and space weather are necessary components for the success of these dreams and will benefit greatly from the fundamental science exploration that Artemis and mission to Mars will enable. Within this paper we will discuss the ways in which Artemis and the mission to Mars will benefit Heliophysics and space weather and end with recommendations for steps we see needed to actualize these dreams.

Alexa J Halford↗

Artemis, Gateway, the Return to the Moon and Forward to Mars for Heliophysics

Over a 100 years ago we humans first landed on Antarctica. At the time we could not have imagined the heliophysics scientific gains that would be got from this continent. Sixty-five years ago we had the first international geophysical year aimed at deployment of instrumentation across this southern most continent and around the globe in recognition of the potential advancements from this integrated system of measurements. This potential has been realized and continues to grow as Antarctica returns science results across most disciplines, inspires artists and athletes, and has touched the lives of many through these gains. Today we are on the precipice of a future new Antarctica with the launch of Artemis 1 and plans for the return of humans to the lunar surface and human exploration to Mars. Heliophysics and space weather are necessary components for the success of these dreams and will benefit greatly from the fundamental science exploration that Artemis and mission to Mars will enable. Within this paper we will discuss the ways in which Artemis and the mission to Mars will benefit Heliophysics and space weather and end with recommendations for steps we see needed to actualize these dreams.

Alexa Halford↗

Variability in Ozone in the Tropical Tropopause Region from the 1998-2000 SHADOZ (Southern Hemisphere ADditional OZonesondes) Data

The first view of stratospheric and tropospheric ozone variability in the southern hemisphere tropics is provided by a 3-year, 10-site record of ozone soundings from the Southern Hemisphere ADditional OZonesondes (SHADOZ) network. Observations covering 1998-2000 were made over Ascension Island; Nairobi, Kenya; Irene, South Africa; Reunion Island; Watukosek, Java; Fiji; Tahiti; American Samoa; San Cristobal, Galapagos; Natal, Brazil. Taking the TTL (tropical tropopause layer) as the region between 12 and 17 km, we examine ozone variability in this region on a week-to-week and seasonal basis. The TTL layer is lower in September-October-November than in March-April-May, when ozone is a minimum at most SHADOZ stations. A zonal wave-one pattern is apparent in column-integrated TTL ozone because ozone mixing ratios are greater over the Atlantic and adjacent continents than over the Pacific and eastern Indian Ocean. The wave-one persists all year with varying magnitude and appears to be due to general circulation - with subsidence over the Atlantic and frequent deep convection over the Pacific and Indian Ocean. The variability of deep convection - most prominent at Java, Fiji, Samoa and Natal - is explored in time-vs-altitude ozone curtains. Stratospheric incursions into the troposphere are most prominent in soundings at Irene and Reunion Island.

Thompson, Anne M.↗

Evaluating the Utility of Remotely-Sensed Soil Moisture Retrievals for Operational Agricultural Drought Monitoring

Soil moisture is a fundamental data source used by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) International Production Assessment Division (IPAD) to monitor crop growth stage and condition and subsequently, globally forecast agricultural yields. Currently, the USDA IPAD estimates surface and root-zone soil moisture using a two-layer modified Palmer soil moisture model forced by global precipitation and temperature measurements. However, this approach suffers from well-known errors arising from uncertainty in model forcing data and highly simplified model physics. Here we attempt to correct for these errors by designing and applying an Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) data assimilation system to integrate surface soil moisture retrievals from the NASA Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) into the USDA modified Palmer soil moisture model. An assessment of soil moisture analysis products produced from this assimilation has been completed for a five-year (2002 to 2007) period over the North American continent between 23degN - 50degN and 128degW - 65degW. In particular, a data denial experimental approach is utilized to isolate the added utility of integrating remotely-sensed soil moisture by comparing EnKF soil moisture results obtained using (relatively) low-quality precipitation products obtained from real-time satellite imagery to baseline Palmer model runs forced with higher quality rainfall. An analysis of root-zone anomalies for each model simulation suggests that the assimilation of AMSR-E surface soil moisture retrievals can add significant value to USDA root-zone predictions derived from real-time satellite precipitation products.

Bolten, John D.↗

Vegetation stress as a feedback mechanism in midlatitude drought

An atmospheric general circulation model with land surface properties represented by the Simplified Simple Biosphere Model is used to investigate the effect of soil moisture and vegetation stress on drought in the mid-latitudes. An idealized land-sea distribution with simple topography is used to remove as many external sources of climate variation as possible. The land consists of a single, flat, rectangular continent covered with prairie vegetation and centered on 44 deg N of an aqua planet. A control integration of 4 years is performed, and several sets of seasonal anomaly integrations are made to test the sensitivity of seasonal climate to low initial (1 April) soil moisture and dormant vegetation like what would occur during a severe drought. It is found that the inclusion of dormant vegetation during the spring and early summer greatly reduces evapotranspiration by eliminating transpiration. This affects local climate more strongly as summer progresses. Low initial soil moisture, combined with dormant vegetation, leads to a severe drought. The reduction in precipitation is much greater in magnitude than that due to low soil moisture alone, and greater than the sum of the effects computed separately. Although the short-term drought is more severe, the dormancy of the vegetation prevents further depletion of moisture in the root zone of the soil, so soil moisture begins to rebound toward the middle of summer.

Dirmeyer, Paul A.↗

Potential Predictability of U.S. Summer Climate with "Perfect" Soil Moisture

The potential predictability of surface-air temperature and precipitation over the United States continent was assessed for a GCM forced by observed sea surface temperatures and an estimate of observed ground soil moisture contents. The latter was obtained by substituting the GCM simulated precipitation, which is used to drive the GCM's land-surface component, with observed pentad-mean precipitation at each time step of the model's integration. With this substitution, the simulated soil moisture correlates well with an independent estimate of observed soil moisture in all seasons over the entire US continent. Significant enhancements on the predictability of surface-air temperature and precipitation were found in boreal late spring and summer over the US continent. Anomalous pattern correlations of precipitation and surface-air temperature over the US continent in the June-July-August season averaged for the 1979-2000 period increased from 0.01 and 0.06 for the GCM simulations without precipitation substitution to 0.23 and 0.3 1, respectively, for the simulations with precipitation substitution. Results provide an estimate for the limits of potential predictability if soil moisture variability is to be perfectly predicted. However, this estimate may be model dependent, and needs to be substantiated by other modeling groups.

Yang, Fanglin↗