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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2012

Consumer Vehicle Choice Model Documentation

In response to the Fuel Economy and Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions standards, automobile manufacturers will need to adopt new technologies to improve the fuel economy of their vehicles and to reduce the overall GHG emissions of their fleets. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has developed the Optimization Model for reducing GHGs from Automobiles (OMEGA) to estimate the costs and benefits of meeting GHG emission standards through different technology packages. However, the model does not simulate the impact that increased technology costs will have on vehicle sales or on consumer surplus. As the model documentation states, “While OMEGA incorporates functions which generally minimize the cost of meeting a specified carbon dioxide (CO2) target, it is not an economic simulation model which adjusts vehicle sales in response to the cost of the technology added to each vehicle.” Changes in the mix of vehicles sold, caused by the costs and benefits of added fuel economy technologies, could make it easier or more difficult for manufacturers to meet fuel economy and emissions standards, and impacts on consumer surplus could raise the costs or augment the benefits of the standards. Because the OMEGA model does not presently estimate such impacts, the EPA is investigating the feasibility of developing an adjunct to the OMEGA model to make such estimates. This project is an effort to develop and test a candidate model. The project statement of work spells out the key functional requirements for the new model.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

HD ADOPT: Heavy-Duty Vehicle Choice Model Documentation

HD ADOPT is a logit consumer vehicle choice and stock model that analyzes the Class 8 tractor market. The model projects future technology shares, fuel consumption, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions under input assumptions of technology progress, energy prices, and policies. ADOPT is distinguished from other vehicle choice models through inclusion of non-linear and heterogenous consumer preferences and characterization of the full range of market options rather than use of composite vehicles. In addition, ADOPT has integrated vehicle simulation capabilities that enable performance assessment and optimization of endogenous technology evolution. Optionally, the model is able to adjust this evolution to enforce compliance with fuel economy and GHG emissions regulations. Primary results include projection of technology shares and future in-use fleet energy demand, petroleum consumption, and GHG emissions. This enables analysis and comparison of future scenarios of technology improvements, economic conditions, and national policies. Recent new features for the HD modeling also enable examination of different on-board hydrogen fuel storage technologies from the lens of consumer preferences for vehicle cost and range. This report documents current ADOPT capabilities and methodologies.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Innovative Utility Offerings at the Distribution Edge: Case Studies from Around the Globe

The global evolution of the electricity sector - from deregulation, to higher penetrations of DERs, to digitization and changing consumer preferences - has delivered the utility industry to an inflection point. The vertically integrated, regulated model that persisted over most of the 20th century is undergoing a transformation, and utilities worldwide are responding with new approaches to the provision of products and services. This report catalogs several of these innovative approaches to incorporate new technologies such as electric vehicles, meet societal goals for a cleaner, more efficient electricity system, and empower consumers to make smarter energy choices and provide system benefits. The report comprises a series of 10 case studies across six continents, and features solutions touching on energy supply, energy efficiency, lighting, transport, data, heating and cooling, and rural/off-grid solutions. The diversity of products, programs, and markets documented illustrates the extent of the shift underway. Ultimately, the report demonstrates that utilities will continue to serve as critical partners in a global energy transition, and have been actively engaged in securing their position as such.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2014

VISION Model Description and User's Guide: Model Used to Estimate the Impacts of Highway Vehicle Technologies and Fuels on Energy Use and Carbon Emissions to 2100

The VISION model has been developed by the US Department of Energy (DOE) to provide estimates of the potential energy use, oil use, and carbon emission impacts to the year 2100 of advanced light- and heavy-duty highway vehicle technologies and alternative fuels. DOE supports research of advanced transportation technologies (including fuels) and is frequently asked to provide estimates of the potential impacts of successful market penetration of these technologies, sometimes on a relatively-quick turnaround basis. VISION is a spreadsheet model that was created in Microsoft Excel® that can be used to respond rapidly to quick-turnaround requests, as well as for longer-term analyses. It uses vehicle survival and age-dependent usage characteristics to project total light- and heavy-truck stock, total vehicle miles traveled (VMT), and total energy use by technology and fuel type by year, given market penetration and vehicle energy efficiency assumptions developed exogenously. Total carbon emissions for on-highway vehicles by year are also estimated because life-cycle carbon coefficients for various fuels are included in VISION. VISION is not a substitute for the transportation component of the US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA’s) National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). NEMS incorporates a consumer choice model to project market penetration of advanced vehicles and alternative fuels. The projections are made within the context of the entire US economy. However, the NEMS model requires more time to execute and only makes projections to 2040. VISION complements NEMS with its relative ease of use and by extending the time frame of potential analysis beyond 2040. VISION has been used for a wide variety of purposes. For illustration, we have listed some of its most recent and current uses in Table 1. Figures 1 through 4 illustrate the results of some of those runs. These graphs are not actual model outputs, but they are based on model results. Aside from these, the National Petroleum Council and National Academies used VISION in their recent scenario studies. The original VISION model description and user guide were written in 2004 and 2006, respectively. Since then, the VISION model has been upgraded with new features and functions. Based on the previous two documents, this report describes the 2013 version including all of the new features that have been added since 2006. The main body of this report describes VISION’s methodology and data sources. The methodology and data sources used in the light- and heavy-vehicle portions of the model are discussed separately. Some suggestions for future improvements to the model are made.

Zhou, Yan↗