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At least 19 records

Use of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Data to Support Severe Accident Consequence Analysis at Locations Without Onsite Meteorological Data

Certain regulatory actions under 10 CFR Parts 50, 52, or the proposed part 53 require the assessment of the potential off-site consequence risks to public safety and the environment from a hypothetical severe accident. As an important part of these analyses, atmospheric transport and dispersion (ATD) modeling relies heavily on the prevailing weather patterns of a site. When considering future deployment of new reactor designs in areas where historical onsite meteorological data is not available,

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

A System for Fault Management and Fault Consequences Analysis for NASA's Deep Space Habitat

NASA's exploration program envisions the utilization of a Deep Space Habitat (DSH) for human exploration of the space environment in the vicinity of Mars and/or asteroids. Communication latencies with ground control of as long as 20+ minutes make it imperative that DSH operations be highly autonomous, as any telemetry-based detection of a systems problem on Earth could well occur too late to assist the crew with the problem. A DSH-based development program has been initiated to develop and test the automation technologies necessary to support highly autonomous DSH operations. One such technology is a fault management tool to support performance monitoring of vehicle systems operations and to assist with real-time decision making in connection with operational anomalies and failures. Toward that end, we are developing Advanced Caution and Warning System (ACAWS), a tool that combines dynamic and interactive graphical representations of spacecraft systems, systems modeling, automated diagnostic analysis and root cause identification, system and mission impact assessment, and mitigation procedure identification to help spacecraft operators (both flight controllers and crew) understand and respond to anomalies more effectively. In this paper, we describe four major architecture elements of ACAWS: Anomaly Detection, Fault Isolation, System Effects Analysis, and Graphic User Interface (GUI), and how these elements work in concert with each other and with other tools to provide fault management support to both the controllers and crew. We then describe recent evaluations and tests of ACAWS on the DSH testbed. The results of these tests support the feasibility and strength of our approach to failure management automation and enhanced operational autonomy

System Effects Analysis

Radiological Safety Analysis Computer (RSAC 7.2) Presentation

This presentation will be for the graduate seminar class for the University of New Mexico. We will discuss the Radiological Safety Analysis Computer (RSAC) version 7.2, a critical tool in radiological consequence analysis within the nuclear safety domain. We will begin with an introduction to radiological consequence analysis and the importance of dose modeling in nuclear safety, referencing key regulatory frameworks such as DOE-STD-3009 and 10 CFR 20. The presentation will provide an overview of RSAC, including its history, primary functions, and the inputs and outputs involved in its calculations. A detailed examination of RSAC's atmospheric dispersion model, based on the Gaussian plume methodology, will be presented, highlighting how meteorological factors influence the results. We will discuss the regulatory alignment of RSAC with DOE and NRC guidelines, emphasizing the assumptions required for compliance and the balance between conservative and realistic inputs. The presentation will also address the limitations and assumptions inherent in RSAC, comparing it with other consequence analysis codes like MACCS, HotSpot, and RASCAL. An example RSAC run will be demonstrated, showcasing a hypothetical accident scenario and interpreting the resulting dose calculations. Finally, we will introduce new ideas to enhance the current RSAC framework. This future work aims to provide multi-industry adaptability and integration with new dispersion models, addressing the evolving needs of DOE and NRC. The presentation will conclude with a discussion on RSAC's ongoing role in nuclear safety and the opportunities for future innovation.

computer program

Analysis and Consequences of the Iridium 33-Cosmos 2251 Collision

The collision of Iridium 33 and Cosmos 2251, on 10 February 2009, was the first known unintentional hypervelocity collision in space of intact satellites. Iridium 33 was an active commercial telecommunications satellite, while Cosmos 2251 was a derelict communication satellite of the Strela-2M class. The collision occurred at a relative velocity of 11.6 km/s at an altitude of approximately 790 km over the Great Siberian Plain and near the northern apex of Cosmos 2251 s orbit. This paper describes the physical and orbital characteristics of the relevant spacecraft classes and reports upon our analysis of the resulting debris clouds size, mass, area-to-mass ratio, and relative velocity/directionality distributions. We compare these distributions to those predicted by the NASA breakup model and notable recent fragmentation events; in particular, we compare the area-to-mass ratio distribution for each spacecraft to that exhibited by the FY-1C debris cloud for the purpose of assessing the relative contribution of modern aerospace materials to debris clouds resulting from energetic collisions. In addition, we examine the long-term consequences of this event for the low Earth orbit (LEO) environment. Finally, we discuss "lessons learned", which may be incorporated into NASA s environmental models.

Anz-Meador, P. D.

Adapting Traditional Hazards Analysis Methods to Address Cyber Risks

Traditional hazards analysis (HA) methods, originally developed to address physical and operational risks, often fall short when it comes to identifying and mitigating cyber threats. These cyber threats pose unique and evolving risks to critical infrastructure and industrial control systems (ICS). This report explores the integration of Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) principles into existing HA methods to enhance their ability to address cyber-induced risks. CIE provides organizations with a practical, cost-effective approach to closing the gap between traditional HA methods and the need for cyber risk mitigation. By leveraging existing safety processes and controls, CIE allows users to examine and mitigate cyber vulnerabilities without overhauling existing HA methods. This report identifies areas where HA and CIE naturally align and where their approaches diverge. It emphasizes how CIE principles can be used to adapt HA methods, broadening their scope to include cyber risks and enabling the mitigation of cyber- induced impacts alongside traditional hazards and failure scenarios. This report examines how CIE can be applied across various HA methods—such as Hazard and Operability Studies (HAZOP), Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA), Systems-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA), Hazard and Consequence Analysis for Digital Systems (HAZCADS), and Layers of Protection Analysis (LOPA). It provides strategies for integrating CIE to strengthen the identification, assessment, and mitigation of cyber-induced risks. The findings offer a structured entry point for organizations to embed CIE concepts into hazards and safety analyses, as well as broader engineering processes, ultimately supporting the design and operation of a more resilient infrastructure.

42 ENGINEERING

Adapting Traditional Hazards Analysis Methods to Address Cyber Risks

Traditional hazards analysis (HA) methods, originally developed to address physical and operational risks, often fall short when it comes to identifying and mitigating cyber threats. These cyber threats pose unique and evolving risks to critical infrastructure and industrial control systems (ICS). This report explores the integration of Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) principles into existing HA methods to enhance their ability to address cyber-induced risks. CIE provides organizations with a practical, cost-effective approach to closing the gap between traditional HA methods and the need for cyber risk mitigation. By leveraging existing safety processes and controls, CIE allows users to examine and mitigate cyber vulnerabilities without overhauling existing HA methods. This report identifies areas where HA and CIE naturally align and where their approaches diverge. It emphasizes how CIE principles can be used to adapt HA methods, broadening their scope to include cyber risks and enabling the mitigation of cyber- induced impacts alongside traditional hazards and failure scenarios. This report examines how CIE can be applied across various HA methods—such as Hazard and Operability Studies (HAZOP), Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA), Systems-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA), Hazard and Consequence Analysis for Digital Systems (HAZCADS), and Layers of Protection Analysis (LOPA). It provides strategies for integrating CIE to strengthen the identification, assessment, and mitigation of cyber-induced risks. The findings offer a structured entry point for organizations to embed CIE concepts into hazards and safety analyses, as well as broader engineering processes, ultimately supporting the design and operation of a more resilient infrastructure.

42 - ENGINEERING

CIE Analysis Process for Engineered Systems

"CIE Analysis Process for Engineered Systems" outlines a comprehensive methodology for integrating Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) principles into both new and existing engineered systems. Sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Cybersecurity, Energy Security, and Emergency Response (DOE CESER), the process aims to achieve cyber-informed decisions by producing functional security requirements for new systems and retrofitting existing systems to mitigate digital risks. The document details a step-by-step approach, including mission and function definition, digital asset awareness, consequence analysis, and mitigation analysis. It emphasizes the importance of documenting mechanical, electrical, programmable, and network components to protect system functions and provides examples and considerations for each step. The ultimate goal is to ensure that engineered systems remain resilient against cyber threats, maintaining safety, performance, and reliability.

42 - ENGINEERING

Impact of Model Uncertainties on Quantitative Analysis of FUV Auroral Images: Peak Production Height

We demonstrate that small uncertainties in the modeled height of peak production for FUV emissions can lead to significant uncertainties in the analysis of these sai-ne emissions. In particular, an uncertainty of only 3 km in the peak production height can lead to a 50% uncertainty in the mean auroral energy deduced from the images. This altitude uncertainty is comparable to differences in different auroral deposition models currently used for UVI analysis. Consequently, great care must be taken in quantitative photometric analysis and interpretation of FUV auroral images.

Germany, G. A.

MACCS User Guide (V.5.0)

MACCS is used by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and various national and international organizations for probabilistic consequence analysis of nuclear power accidents. This user guide is intended to assist analysts in understanding the MACCS/MACCS-UI User Interface (UI) model and to provide information regarding the code. This user guide version describes MACCS Version 5.0, model history, explains how to set up and execute a problem, and informs the user of the definition of various input parameters and any constraints placed on those parameters. This report is part of a series of reports documenting MACCS. Other reports include the MACCS Theory Manual, MACCS Verification Report, Technical Bases for Consequence Analyses Using MACCS, as well as documentation for preprocessor codes including SecPop, MelMACCS, and COMIDA2.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS

MACCS User Guide - Version 5.2

MACCS is used by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and various national and international organizations for probabilistic consequence analysis of nuclear power accidents. This user guide is intended to assist analysts in understanding the MACCS/MACCS-UI User Interface (UI) model and to provide information regarding the code. This user guide version describes MACCS Version 5.2, model history, explains how to set up and execute a problem, and informs the user of the definition of various input parameters and any constraints placed on those parameters. This report is part of a series of reports documenting MACCS. Other reports include the MACCS Theory Manual, MACCS Verification Report, Technical Bases for Consequence Analyses Using MACCS, as well as documentation for preprocessor codes including SecPop, MelMACCS, and COMIDA2.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

ECAR-5127 Rev 1 Evaluation of the MARVEL Reactor Inhalation Dose Consequences

The following dose consequence analysis is performed to support the preliminary Microreactor Applications Research Validation and Evaluation Project (MARVEL) design effort. The purpose of the MARVEL project is to develop a nuclear microreactor applications test bed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) to perform research and development on various operational features of microreactors to ultimately improve integration of microreactors to end-user applications. The MARVEL concept is a 100 kilowatt (kW) thermal (kWth) and approximately 20-kW electric (kWe) generating microreactor. The MARVEL system will be located in the INL TREAT facility in the north high-bay equipment pit. This ECAR considers the bounding release fractions of the MARVEL reactor concept and documents the dose consequences to the public and collocated worker.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN

Enhancing Data Quality Monitoring at CMS with Interactive Visualization Tools and Automated Reference Run Selection

Current data quality monitoring (DQM) tools at CMS offer granularity limited to per-run analysis. Consequently, issues manifesting at the per-lumisection level can go unnoticed or, even if detectable, often lead to the classification of the whole run as bad, resulting in unnecessary data loss. Additionally, shifters have to evaluate a large set of monitoring elements during their long shifts, increasing the probability of human errors or overlooked problems. In this contribution, we present ongoing work on the development of tools that will provide shifters with an accessible, granularity-enhanced view of DQM data through interactive and dynamic visualizations. Furthermore, we introduce a reference run selection tool currently under development, which will automate the selection based on data-taking conditions and will offer a curated set of training data for machine learning models that will be used for the partial automation of the offline data certification process. These endeavors will be integrated into the DIALS website, enabling enhancements in data certification accuracy and improving the accessibility of DQM at CMS.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS

Worst Case Sabotage Consequence Modeling for Advanced Reactors

Under proposed rulemaking by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission, advanced reactor licensees may qualify for a reduction in onsite responders if the consequences from a sabotage attack do not exceed 25 rem at the reactor site boundary 2 hours after a release occurs. This work presents a preliminary assessment of the feasibility of meeting the 25 rem at the site boundary criteria. Using advanced reactor radionuclide inventories radiological release estimates created by collaborators at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, the MACCS consequence analysis code was used to investigate the distance at the dose from hypothetical sabotage events reaches 25 rem for different advanced reactor technologies. It was found that the distance to 25 rem depended heavily on sampled weather conditions and sabotage release fractions, and further refinement of release fractions and MACCS modeling parameters is recommended.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS

A Real Time Investigation of Morphological Evolution During Solidification of Different Alloy Systems

Solidification phenomenon which occur at the solid/liquid (s/I) interface play a major role in the determination of structure and hence the technologically important properties of a casting. However, metals being opaque, conclusions related to several important phenomenon such as boundary layer thickness, morphological evolution, and eutectic and cell spacing are deduced from quenching experiments and subsequent post solidification metallographic analysis. Consequently, limited information is obtained about the dynamics of the process. This paper will discuss the recent efforts at the Space Science Laboratory, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, to view and quantify in-situ and in real time the dynamics of the solidification process and to measure interfacial undercooling. First, a high resolution x-ray transmission microscope (XTM) has been developed to monitor fundamental interfacial phenomena during directional solidification of metals and alloys. The XTM operates in the range of 10-100 KeV and through projection is capable of achieving magnification of up to 16OX. Secondly, an innovative collapsible furnace has been designed to quantify interfacial undercooling by measuring the temperature of a moving s/I interface in reference to a fixed s/l interface. This measurement technique is non-intrusive in nature and is based on the Seebeck principle. In this paper real time results obtained to characterize the dynamics of irregular eutectic spacing will be presented. As an example fiber to lamella or plate transition in the Al-Al2Au eutectic system will be discussed. Further, a resolution limit of 25 micron has permitted viewing in real time morphological instability and cellular growth in Al-Au and Al-Ag systems. Simultaneously, a systematic investigation has been carried out to measure interfacial undercooling for Pb-1 wt.% Sn at and near the marginal stability regime. In conjunction with the XTM observations this study attempts to validate existing relationships between undercooling and growth velocity during plane front growth, marginal stability regime, and stable cellular growth.

Sen, S.

An XMM Study of Low-Activity Coronal Stars of 1-2 Solar Masses

The objective of these observations was to take advantage of the large collecting area and sensitivity of the European Space Agency's XMM-Newton telescope to obtain X ray grating spectra of two relatively inactive late type stars, Beta Geminorun (K0 III) and the solar analog Beta Hydri (G2 IV). The observations were carried out as scheduled, achieving exposure times of 36 kiloseconds for Beta Gem and 27 kiloseconds for Beta Hyi. Unfortunately both stars were too faint to yield spectra with enough signal-to-noise for any further analysis. Consequently, there are no scientific results to report. The following pages illustrate the very weak X ray spectra that were obtained with the two RGS grating instruments for each star, first Beta Gem and then beta Hyi.

Simon, Theodore

Implications of Climate Mitigation for Future Agricultural Production

Climate change is projected to negatively impact biophysical agricultural productivity in much of the world. Actions taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate future climate changes, are thus of central importance for agricultural production. Climate impacts are, however, not unidirectional; some crops in some regions (primarily higher latitudes) are projected to benefit, particularly if increased atmospheric carbon dioxide is assumed to strongly increase crop productivity at large spatial and temporal scales. Climate mitigation measures that are implemented by reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations lead to reductions both in the strength of climate change and in the benefits of carbon dioxide fertilization. Consequently, analysis of the effects of climate mitigation on agricultural productivity must address not only regions for which mitigation is likely to reduce or even reverse climate damages. There are also regions that are likely to see increased crop yields due to climate change, which may lose these added potentials under mitigation action. Comparing data from the most comprehensive archive of crop yield projections publicly available, we find that climate mitigation leads to overall benefits from avoided damages at the global scale and especially in many regions that are already at risk of food insecurity today. Ignoring controversial carbon dioxide fertilization effects on crop productivity, we find that for the median projection aggressive mitigation could eliminate approximately 81% of the negative impacts of climate change on biophysical agricultural productivity globally by the end of the century. In this case, the benefits of mitigation typically extend well into temperate regions, but vary by crop and underlying climate model projections. Should large benefits to crop yields from carbon dioxide fertilization be realized, the effects of mitigation become much more mixed, though still positive globally and beneficial in many food insecure countries.

Mueller, Christoph

Total Ozone Trends from 1979 to 2016 Derived from Five Merged Observational Datasets - The Emergence into Ozone Recovery

We report on updated trends using different merged datasets from satellite and ground-based observations for the period from 1979 to 2016. Trends were determined by applying a multiple linear regression (MLR) to annual mean zonal mean data. Merged datasets used here include NASA MOD v8.6 and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) merge v8.6, both based on data from the series of Solar Backscatter UltraViolet (SBUV) and SBUV-2 satellite instruments (1978–present) as well as the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME)-type Total Ozone (GTO) and GOME-SCIAMACHY-GOME-2 (GSG) merged datasets (1995-present), mainly comprising satellite data from GOME, the Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Chartography (SCIAMACHY), and GOME-2A. The fifth dataset consists of the monthly mean zonal mean data from ground-based measurements collected at World Ozone and UV Data Center (WOUDC). The addition of four more years of data since the last World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ozone assessment (2013-2016) shows that for most datasets and regions the trends since the stratospheric halogen reached its maximum (approximately 1996 globally and approximately 2000 in polar regions) are mostly not significantly different from zero. However, for some latitudes, in particular the Southern Hemisphere extratropics and Northern Hemisphere subtropics, several datasets show small positive trends of slightly below +1 percent decade(exp. -1) that are barely statistically significant at the 2 Sigma uncertainty level. In the tropics, only two datasets show significant trends of +0.5 to +0.8 percent(exp.-1), while the others show near-zero trends. Positive trends since 2000 have been observed over Antarctica in September, but near-zero trends are found in October as well as in March over the Arctic. Uncertainties due to possible drifts between the datasets, from the merging procedure used to combine satellite datasets and related to the low sampling of ground-based data, are not accounted for in the trend analysis. Consequently, the retrieved trends can be only considered to be at the brink of becoming significant, but there are indications that we are about to emerge into the expected recovery phase. However, the recent trends are still considerably masked by the observed large year-to-year dynamical variability in total ozone.

column ozone trends