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Appreciative Methods Applied to the Assessment of Complex Systems

Complex systems have characteristics that challenge traditional systems engineering processes and methods. These characteristics have been defined in various ways. INCOSE has previously identified characteristics of complex systems and potential methods to deal with complexity in system development. The purpose of this paper is to provide definitions and describe distinguishing characteristics of complexity using example systems to illustrate approaches to assessing the extent of complexity. The paper applies Appreciative Inquiry to identify and assess complex system characteristics. The characteristics are used to examine several different examples of systems to illuminate areas of complexity. These examples range from seemingly simple systems to complicated systems to complex systems. Different tiers of complexity are identified as a result of the assessment. The paper also identified and introduces topics on managing complexity and the integrating system perspective that represent new directions for the engineering of complex systems. The Appreciative Inquiry approach provides a method for systems engineering practitioners to more readily identify complexity when they encounter it, and to deal more effectively with this complexity once it has been identified.

Watson, Michael

Theoretical Modeling and Computer Simulations for the Origins and Evolution of Reproducing Molecular Systems and Complex Systems with Many Interactive Parts

Our research effort has produced nine publications in peer-reviewed journals listed at the end of this report. The work reported here are in the following areas: (1) genetic network modeling; (2) autocatalytic model of pre-biotic evolution; (3) theoretical and computational studies of strongly correlated electron systems; (4) reducing thermal oscillations in atomic force microscope; (5) transcription termination mechanism in prokaryotic cells; and (6) the low glutamine usage in thennophiles obtained by studying completely sequenced genomes. We discuss the main accomplishments of these publications.

Liang, Shoudan

The System Complexity Metric (SCM) Predicts System Costs and Failure Rates

A complex system has many parts and interactions and so is difficult to understand. Systems with higher complexity generally have higher costs and failure rates. A System Complexity Metric (SCM) is defined to be the sum of the number of nodes, N, in the system block diagram plus the number of one-way interactions, I, between the nodes. SCM = N + I. SCMs are easily determined by direct inspection of high level block diagrams of life support systems. System cost was found to be directly proportional to SCM. The system MTBF (Mean Time Before Failure) is the inverse of the system failure rate. MTBF = 1/f. The system MTBF was found to be proportional to SCM^(-2.2) for estimated preflight MTBFs. As is typical for systems that are not extensively tested and redesigned to eliminate unexpected failure modes, the life support flight failure rates were about ten times higher than the preflight estimates and the MTBFs one-tenth the preflight estimates. The system MTBF was found to be proportional to SCM^(-2.6) for observed flight MTBFs.

System compleity

Hierarchical Modeling and Robust Synthesis for the Preliminary Design of Large Scale Complex Systems

Large-scale complex systems are characterized by multiple interacting subsystems and the analysis of multiple disciplines. The design and development of such systems inevitably requires the resolution of multiple conflicting objectives. The size of complex systems, however, prohibits the development of comprehensive system models, and thus these systems must be partitioned into their constituent parts. Because simultaneous solution of individual subsystem models is often not manageable iteration is inevitable and often excessive. In this dissertation these issues are addressed through the development of a method for hierarchical robust preliminary design exploration to facilitate concurrent system and subsystem design exploration, for the concurrent generation of robust system and subsystem specifications for the preliminary design of multi-level, multi-objective, large-scale complex systems. This method is developed through the integration and expansion of current design techniques: Hierarchical partitioning and modeling techniques for partitioning large-scale complex systems into more tractable parts, and allowing integration of subproblems for system synthesis; Statistical experimentation and approximation techniques for increasing both the efficiency and the comprehensiveness of preliminary design exploration; and Noise modeling techniques for implementing robust preliminary design when approximate models are employed. Hierarchical partitioning and modeling techniques including intermediate responses, linking variables, and compatibility constraints are incorporated within a hierarchical compromise decision support problem formulation for synthesizing subproblem solutions for a partitioned system. Experimentation and approximation techniques are employed for concurrent investigations and modeling of partitioned subproblems. A modified composite experiment is introduced for fitting better predictive models across the ranges of the factors, and an approach for constructing partitioned response surfaces is developed to reduce the computational expense of experimentation for fitting models in a large number of factors. Noise modeling techniques are compared and recommendations are offered for the implementation of robust design when approximate models are sought. These techniques, approaches, and recommendations are incorporated within the method developed for hierarchical robust preliminary design exploration. This method as well as the associated approaches are illustrated through their application to the preliminary design of a commercial turbofan turbine propulsion system. The case study is developed in collaboration with Allison Engine Company, Rolls Royce Aerospace, and is based on the Allison AE3007 existing engine designed for midsize commercial, regional business jets. For this case study, the turbofan system-level problem is partitioned into engine cycle design and configuration design and a compressor modules integrated for more detailed subsystem-level design exploration, improving system evaluation. The fan and low pressure turbine subsystems are also modeled, but in less detail. Given the defined partitioning, these subproblems are investigated independently and concurrently, and response surface models are constructed to approximate the responses of each. These response models are then incorporated within a commercial turbofan hierarchical compromise decision support problem formulation. Five design scenarios are investigated, and robust solutions are identified. The method and solutions identified are verified by comparison with the AE3007 engine. The solutions obtained are similar to the AE3007 cycle and configuration, but are better with respect to many of the requirements.

Koch, Patrick N.

The System Complexity Metric (SCM) Explains Systems Design and is Correlated with Cost and Failure Rate

The human short term memory span and working capacity is limited to three to five items, especially if they are organized complex “chunks” of information. The impression of complexity occurs when a system is simply difficult to understand, where there is no apparent pattern to predict its behavior. Hierarchical systems design can reduce perceived complexity and increase the amount of information that can be managed. The SCM was developed to measure complexity and help compare proposed overall system architectures before detailed design information is available. The SCM is defined as the sum of the number of major nodes, N, in the system block diagram plus the number of one-way interactions, I, between the nodes. SCM = N + I. SCM’s are easily determined by direct inspection of high-level block diagrams of life support systems. Axiomatic design develops a hierarchy of subsystem requirements and designs together in a top-down, back-and-forth process. A coupling matrix is used to control the relationships between the subsystem functions and design concepts. Axiomatic design can improve system design by decoupling requirements and designs. Axiomatic design was applied to the planning of a closed life support system, similar to that used on the International Space Station. A materially open as opposed to a closed system design was created by removing the interconnections required to close the system. The open system had the same number of designed subsystems as the closed system, but it had many fewer interconnections and its SCM was lower by about half. The costs were estimated and the MTBF (Mean Time Before Failure) tabulated for open and closed space life support systems. The estimated costs were linearly proportional to SCM for the wide variations of SCM in life support, but small differences may not be significant. The flight and preflight MTBF’s both declined exponentially with increasing MTBF, faster than MTBF-2, even though the preflight estimated MTBF’s were about ten times higher than the flight MTBF’s.

System Complexity Metric (SCM)

Using the System Complexity Metric (SCM) to Compare CO2 Removal Systems

A fundamental cause of difficulty in large engineering projects is their inherent complexity. An impression of complexity occurs if a system is simply difficult to understand, where there is no obvious mental model that correctly predicts its behavior. Higher system complexity is usually associated with higher cost and higher failure rate. Complexity is perceived if a system has many diverse components, multiple interactions and feedback loops, transients and dynamic behavior, and unanticipated failure modes. Identifying and removing these signs of complexity should improve performance and reduce the cost and failure rate. Complexity can be directly measured by the number of components and their interactions. The System Complexity Metric (SCM) is defined as the sum of the number of parts in a system, N, plus the number of the one-way interconnections between them, I. SCM = N + I. The SCM is easily determined by direct inspection of the system block diagram. SCM can be used to compare systems and to guide their redesign to reduce cost and failure rate. Carbon dioxide removal systems are analyzed using SCM, cost, and failure rate. As in previous work, cost is directly proportional to SCM and that failure rate increases as a power of SCM for large differences in SCM. The SCM ranking of carbon dioxide removal systems is the same as their ranking in detailed analysis and practice.

Harry W. Jones

Using the System Complexity Metric (SCM) to Compare CO2 Reduction Systems

A fundamental cause of difficulty in large engineering projects is their inherent complexity. An impression of complexity occurs if a system is simply difficult to understand, where there is no obvious mental model that correctly predicts its behavior. Higher system complexity is usually associated with higher cost and higher failure rate. Complexity is perceived if a system has many diverse components, multiple interactions and feedback loops, transients and dynamic behavior, and unanticipated failure modes. Identifying and removing these signs of complexity should improve performance and reduce the cost and failure rate. Complexity can be directly measured by the number of components and their interactions. The System Complexity Metric (SCM) is defined as the sum of the number of parts in a system, N, plus the number of the one-way interconnections between them, I. SCM = N + I. The SCM is easily determined by direct inspection of the system block diagram. SCM can be used to compare systems and to guide their redesign to reduce cost and failure rate. Carbon dioxide reduction systems are analyzed using SCM, cost, and failure rate. As in previous work, cost is directly proportional to SCM and that failure rate increases as a power of SCM for large differences in SCM. The SCM ranking of carbon dioxide reduction systems is the same as their ranking in detailed analysis and practice.

Harry W. Jones

Demonstration of a Safety Analysis on a Complex System

For the past 17 years, Professor Leveson and her graduate students have been developing a theoretical foundation for safety in complex systems and building a methodology upon that foundation. The methodology includes special management structures and procedures, system hazard analyses, software hazard analysis, requirements modeling and analysis for completeness and safety, special software design techniques including the design of human-machine interaction, verification, operational feedback, and change analysis. The Safeware methodology is based on system safety techniques that are extended to deal with software and human error. Automation is used to enhance our ability to cope with complex systems. Identification, classification, and evaluation of hazards is done using modeling and analysis. To be effective, the models and analysis tools must consider the hardware, software, and human components in these systems. They also need to include a variety of analysis techniques and orthogonal approaches: There exists no single safety analysis or evaluation technique that can handle all aspects of complex systems. Applying only one or two may make us feel satisfied, but will produce limited results. We report here on a demonstration, performed as part of a contract with NASA Langley Research Center, of the Safeware methodology on the Center-TRACON Automation System (CTAS) portion of the air traffic control (ATC) system and procedures currently employed at the Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) TRACON (Terminal Radar Approach CONtrol). CTAS is an automated system to assist controllers in handling arrival traffic in the DFW area. Safety is a system property, not a component property, so our safety analysis considers the entire system and not simply the automated components. Because safety analysis of a complex system is an interdisciplinary effort, our team included system engineers, software engineers, human factors experts, and cognitive psychologists.

Leveson, Nancy

Large-scale systems: Complexity, stability, reliability

After showing that a complex dynamic system with a competitive structure has highly reliable stability, a class of noncompetitive dynamic systems for which competitive models can be constructed is defined. It is shown that such a construction is possible in the context of the hierarchic stability analysis. The scheme is based on the comparison principle and vector Liapunov functions.

Siljak, D. D.

An architecture for intelligent interfaces - Outline of an approach to supporting operators of complex systems

The conceptual design of a comprehensive support system for operators of complex systems is presented. Key functions within the support system architecture include information management, error monitoring, and adaptive aiding. One of the central knowledge bases underlying this functionality is an operator model that involves a 'matrix' of algorithmic and symbolic models for assessing and predicting an operator's activities, awareness resources, intentions, and performance. Functional block diagrams are presented for the overall architecture as well as the key elements within this architecture. A variety of difficult design issues are discussed and ongoing efforts aimed at resolving these issues are noted.

Rouse, W. B.

GT-CATS: Tracking Operator Activities in Complex Systems

Human operators of complex dynamic systems can experience difficulties supervising advanced control automation. One remedy is to develop intelligent aiding systems that can provide operators with context-sensitive advice and reminders. The research reported herein proposes, implements, and evaluates a methodology for activity tracking, a form of intent inferencing that can supply the knowledge required for an intelligent aid by constructing and maintaining a representation of operator activities in real time. The methodology was implemented in the Georgia Tech Crew Activity Tracking System (GT-CATS), which predicts and interprets the actions performed by Boeing 757/767 pilots navigating using autopilot flight modes. This report first describes research on intent inferencing and complex modes of automation. It then provides a detailed description of the GT-CATS methodology, knowledge structures, and processing scheme. The results of an experimental evaluation using airline pilots are given. The results show that GT-CATS was effective in predicting and interpreting pilot actions in real time.

Callantine, Todd J.

From Research to Reality -- Challenges and Opportunities in Complex System Design

The scope and scale of our interconnected society requires that we view the world through a complex system lens, where numerous parts interact, and emergent behaviors are the norm. Understanding complex systems is critical for decision-making and policy development in domains such as ecological systems, financial markets, supply chains, and global transportation systems, where decision-makers need reliable information to predict the impact of decisions that may play out over decades. Traditional approaches to the research that produces this information are often insufficient, where hypotheses are tested in an isolated environment, and where the results may not carry over to the integrated system. There are a multitude of advancements in system engineering, artificial intelligence, and test and evaluation that are emerging to meet the challenge. Approaches such as agile development, model-based system engineering, design of experiments, large language models, and formal ontologies are providing ways to manage complexity and increase our collective ability to make the changes that we want to see in the world. In this talk I will provide a few examples related to the architecture of the National Airspace System (NAS), where we have investigated the use of large language models, basic formal ontology, and applied category theory to help researchers and system engineers be more effective in this complex design space. Bio: Dr. Ian Levitt’s current research focus is on the complex evolution of the National Airspace System. Prior to joining NASA in 2020, he was with the FAA leading international standards and national laboratory development for the agency. Dr. Levitt earned his PhD in mathematics from Rutgers University in 2009. His mission is to promote a healthy and continuous transformation of society through open information and cooperation.

Ian Levitt

Position Papers for Inverse Methods for Complex Systems under Uncertainty Workshop

The ability to solve inverse problems – inferring unknown parameters, structures, or states of a system from observed data – is essential for advancing scientific discovery and innovation capabilities for the DOE mission. Basic research needs and challenges are particularly acute in emerging areas such as the interactive, data-driven, modeling and simulation of digital twins; decision support for experiments at DOE scientific user facilities; and for other complex systems and workflows. Inverse problems are at the heart of understanding and controlling complex systems due to factors such as observational data with varying modalities and fidelities, inherent uncertainties in physical measurements and numerical models, and the computational demands of rapid and high-fidelity simulations. The convergence of recent scientific computing trends – scientific machine learning, artificial intelligence, and computing advances such as exascale computing – is creating unprecedented opportunities. These advancements offer the potential to revolutionize how we approach inverse problems to extract actionable insights with the required level of accuracy and computational efficiency. This workshop and the Call for Position Papers are vital steps in bringing together experts to collectively explore and identify the new computational and mathematical directions needed in inverse methods for complex systems under uncertainty.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Practical and Optimal Sequential Bayesian Experimental Design for Complex Systems Incorporating Human Experimenter Preferences (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

Experiments are indispensable for developing models of complex systems. Carefully designed experiments can provide substantial savings for these expensive data-acquisition opportunities. However, designs based on heuristics are often suboptimal for systems with multiphysics, nonlinear dynamics, and uncertain and noisy environments. Optimal experimental design, while leveraging predictive models, seeks to systematically quantify and maximize the value of experiments. In this project, we focused on the design of multiple experiments, where current approaches are largely suboptimal: batch-design does not adapt to new data acquired during the experiment campaign (no feedback), and greedy/myopic design ignores future dynamics and consequences (no lookahead). We developed the mathematical framework and computational methods for sequential optimal experimental design (sOED) for complex systems. We enabled tractable model-based sOED in a rigorous manner through novel algorithms based on reinforcement learning, and investigated the effects of human experimenters on the design process. Our methods are fully Bayesian, able to quantify and update uncertainty in a principled manner. The traits aimed by our approach—mathematical rigor and optimality, human effects and uncertainty quantification, computational practicality—are crucial for elevating the standards of artificial intelligence (AI) to support decision-making in scientific domains, and contribute toward trust and realistic adoption of AI in experimental design practice.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING