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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2014

Inhomogeneous Forcing and Transient Climate Sensitivity

Understanding climate sensitivity is critical to projecting climate change in response to a given forcing scenario. Recent analyses have suggested that transient climate sensitivity is at the low end of the present model range taking into account the reduced warming rates during the past 10-15 years during which forcing has increased markedly. In contrast, comparisons of modelled feedback processes with observations indicate that the most realistic models have higher sensitivities. Here I analyse results from recent climate modelling intercomparison projects to demonstrate that transient climate sensitivity to historical aerosols and ozone is substantially greater than the transient climate sensitivity to CO2. This enhanced sensitivity is primarily caused by more of the forcing being located at Northern Hemisphere middle to high latitudes where it triggers more rapid land responses and stronger feedbacks. I find that accounting for this enhancement largely reconciles the two sets of results, and I conclude that the lowest end of the range of transient climate response to CO2 in present models and assessments (less than 1.3 C) is very unlikely.

sensitivity↗
NASA NTRS2014

Diagnosis of Middle Atmosphere Climate Sensitivity by the Climate Feedback Response Analysis Method

We present a new method to diagnose the middle atmosphere climate sensitivity by extending the Climate Feedback-Response Analysis Method (CFRAM) for the coupled atmosphere-surface system to the middle atmosphere. The Middle atmosphere CFRAM (MCFRAM) is built on the atmospheric energy equation per unit mass with radiative heating and cooling rates as its major thermal energy sources. MCFRAM preserves the CFRAM unique feature of an additive property for which the sum of all partial temperature changes due to variations in external forcing and feedback processes equals the observed temperature change. In addition, MCFRAM establishes a physical relationship of radiative damping between the energy perturbations associated with various feedback processes and temperature perturbations associated with thermal responses. MCFRAM is applied to both measurements and model output fields to diagnose the middle atmosphere climate sensitivity. It is found that the largest component of the middle atmosphere temperature response to the 11-year solar cycle (solar maximum vs. solar minimum) is directly from the partial temperature change due to the variation of the input solar flux. Increasing CO2 always cools the middle atmosphere with time whereas partial temperature change due to O3 variation could be either positive or negative. The partial temperature changes due to different feedbacks show distinctly different spatial patterns. The thermally driven globally averaged partial temperature change due to all radiative processes is approximately equal to the observed temperature change, ranging from 0.5 K near 70 km from the near solar maximum to the solar minimum.

MCFRAM↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Midlatitude cyclone processes as a key to understanding climate sensitivity

Global climate models (GCMs) differ greatly in their shortwave cloud feedback. One feature that is consistent across GCMs is a positive shortwave cloud feedback in the subtropics, and a negative shortwave cloud feedback across the midlatitudes. Confidence has grown in the mechanisms that lead to, and the strength of, the subtropical shortwave cloud feedback, but the midlatitude negative shortwave cloud feedback is not well-constrained or well-understood. It is critical to reduce uncertainty in midlatitude shortwave cloud feedback. A more positive midlatitude shortwave cloud feedback in the sixth coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP6) has been found to be one of the primary causes of the increased climate sensitivity of CMIP6 models relative to CMIP5. We show that changes in midlatitude cyclones in future climates are the primary cause of the negative shortwave cloud feedback and are thus key to understanding the high climate sensitivity in the most recent GCMs. Warming-induced changes in cloud liquid water path in midlatitude cyclones can almost entirely be explained by Clausius-Clapeyron increasing moisture convergence into cyclones. One concern with simulating midlatitude cyclones is the lack of predictive skill at low resolution. A more realistic relationship between moisture flux and cyclone liquid content is found at high horizontal resolution (∆x<25km), but the cloud feedback within cyclones can be explained by increased moisture convergence across low- and high-resolution models. Observations and models agree that the extratropical shortwave cloud feedback is moderated by precipitation processes in cyclones. This rules out a large contribution from ice-to-liquid transitions, as has been hypothesized in previous studies. Understanding and constraining these precipitation processes is crucial to constraining the response of midlatitude cyclones to warming and by extension climate sensitivity.

Cyclones↗
NASA NTRS1988

The Milankovitch theory and climate sensitivity. I - Equilibrium climate model solutions for the present surface conditions. II - Interaction between the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and the climate system

A seasonal climate model was developed to test the climate sensitivity and, in particular, the Milankovitch (1941) theory. Four climate model versions were implemented to investigate the range of uncertainty in the parameterizations of three basic feedback mechanisms: the ice albedo-temperature, the outgoing long-wave radiation-temperature, and the eddy transport-meridional temperature gradient. It was found that the differences between the simulation of the present climate by the four versions were generally small, especially for annually averaged results. The climate model was also used to study the effect of growing/shrinking of a continental ice sheet, bedrock sinking/uplifting, and sea level changes on the climate system, taking also into account the feedback effects on the climate of the building of the ice caps.

Neeman, Binyamin U.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity Estimated by Equilibrating Climate Models

The methods to quantify equilibrium climate sensitivity are still debated. We collect millennial length simulations of coupled climate models and show that the global mean equilibrium warming is higher than those obtained using extrapolation methods from shorter simulations. Specifically, 27 simulations with 15 climate models forced with a range of CO2 concentrations show a median 17% larger equilibrium warming than estimated from the first 150 years of the simulations. The spatial patterns of radiative feedbacks change continuously, in most regions reducing their tendency to stabilizing the climate. In the equatorial Pacific, however, feedbacks become more stabilizing with time. The global feedback evolution is initially dominated by the tropics, with eventual substantial contributions from the midlatitudes. Time dependent feedbacks underscore the need of a measure of climate sensitivity that accounts for the degree of equilibration, so that models, observations, and paleo proxies can be adequately compared and aggregated to estimate future warming.

Maria Rugenstein↗
NASA NTRS2014

Climate Sensitivity in the Anthropocene

Climate sensitivity in its most basic form is defined as the equilibrium change in global surface temperature that occurs in response to a climate forcing, or externally imposed perturbation of the planetary energy balance. Within this general definition, several specific forms of climate sensitivity exist that differ in terms of the types of climate feedbacks they include. Based on evidence from Earth's history, we suggest here that the relevant form of climate sensitivity in the Anthropocene (e.g. from which to base future greenhouse gas (GHG) stabilization targets) is the Earth system sensitivity including fast feedbacks from changes in water vapour, natural aerosols, clouds and sea ice, slower surface albedo feedbacks from changes in continental ice sheets and vegetation, and climate-GHG feedbacks from changes in natural (land and ocean) carbon sinks. Traditionally, only fast feedbacks have been considered (with the other feedbacks either ignored or treated as forcing), which has led to estimates of the climate sensitivity for doubled CO2 concentrations of about 3 C. The 2×CO2 Earth system sensitivity is higher than this, being approx. 4-6 C if the ice sheet/vegetation albedo feedback is included in addition to the fast feedbacks, and higher still if climate-GHG feedbacks are also included. The inclusion of climate-GHG feedbacks due to changes in the natural carbon sinks has the advantage of more directly linking anthropogenic GHG emissions with the ensuing global temperature increase, thus providing a truer indication of the climate sensitivity to human perturbations. The Earth system climate sensitivity is difficult to quantify due to the lack of palaeo-analogues for the present-day anthropogenic forcing, and the fact that ice sheet and climate-GHG feedbacks have yet to become globally significant in the Anthropocene. Furthermore, current models are unable to adequately simulate the physics of ice sheet decay and certain aspects of the natural carbon and nitrogen cycles. Obtaining quantitative estimates of the Earth system sensitivity is therefore a high priority for future work.

Anthropocene↗
NASA NTRS2021

Observational Constraint on Cloud Feedbacks Suggests Moderate Climate Sensitivity

Global climate models (GCMs) predict warming in response to increasing greenhouse gases, partly due to decreased tropical low-level cloud cover and reflectance. We use satellite observations that discriminate stratocumulus (Sc) from shallow cumulus (Cu) clouds to separately evaluate their sensitivity to warming and constrain the tropical contribution to low-cloud feedback. We find an observationally inferred low-level feedback two times smaller than a previous estimate. Cu are insensitive to warming whereas GCMs exhibit a large positive cloud feedback in Cu regions. In contrast, Sc show sensitivity to warming and the tropical inversion layer strength, controlled by the tropical Pacific SST gradient. Models fail to reproduce the historical SST gradient trends and therefore changes in inversion strength, generating an overestimate of the positive Sc cloud feedback. Continued weak east-Pacific warming would therefore produce a weaker low-cloud feedback and imply a more moderate climate sensitivity (3.47  0.33 K) than many models predict.

Cloud feedback↗
NASA NTRS1999

A Process-based, Climate-Sensitive Model to Derive Methane Emissions from Natural Wetlands: Application to 5 Wetland Sites, Sensitivity to Model Parameters and Climate

Methane emissions from natural wetlands constitutes the largest methane source at present and depends highly on the climate. In order to investigate the response of methane emissions from natural wetlands to climate variations, a 1-dimensional process-based climate-sensitive model to derive methane emissions from natural wetlands is developed. In the model the processes leading to methane emission are simulated within a 1-dimensional soil column and the three different transport mechanisms diffusion, plant-mediated transport and ebullition are modeled explicitly. The model forcing consists of daily values of soil temperature, water table and Net Primary Productivity, and at permafrost sites the thaw depth is included. The methane model is tested using observational data obtained at 5 wetland sites located in North America, Europe and Central America, representing a large variety of environmental conditions. It can be shown that in most cases seasonal variations in methane emissions can be explained by the combined effect of changes in soil temperature and the position of the water table. Our results also show that a process-based approach is needed, because there is no simple relationship between these controlling factors and methane emissions that applies to a variety of wetland sites. The sensitivity of the model to the choice of key model parameters is tested and further sensitivity tests are performed to demonstrate how methane emissions from wetlands respond to climate variations.

Walter, Bernadette P.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Ringberg15: Earth's Climate Sensitivities

To assess gaps in understanding of Earth's climate sensitivities a workshop was organised under the auspices of the WCRP (World Climate Research Programme) Grand Science Challenge on Clouds, Circulation and Climate Sensitivity (Ringberg15). The workshop took place in March 2015 and gathered together over thirty experts from around the world for one week. Attendees each gave short presentations and participated in moderated discussions of specific questions related to understanding Earth's climate sensitivities. Most of the time was focused on understanding of the equilibrium climate sensitivity, defined as the equilibrium near-surface warming associated with a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. The workshop produced nine recommendations, many of them focusing on specific research avenues that could be exploited to advance understanding of climate sensitivity. Many of these dealt, in one fashion or another, with the need to more sharply focus research on identifying and testing story lines for a high (larger than 4 degrees Kelvin) or low (less than 2 degrees Kelvin) equilibrium climate sensitivity. Additionally, a subset of model intercomparison projects (CFMIP (Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project), PMIP (Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project), PDRMIP (Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project), RFMIP (Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project) and VolMIP (Volcanic Forcings Model Intercomparison Project)) that have been proposed for inclusion within CMIP were identified as being central to resolving important issues raised at the workshop; for this reason modelling groups were strongly encouraged to participate in these projects. Finally the workshop participants encouraged the WCRP to initiate and support an assessment process lead by the Grand Science Challenge on Clouds, Circulation and Climate Sensitivity on the topic of Earth's Climate Sensitivities, culminating in a report that will be published in 2019, forty years after the seminal report by Charney and co-authors.

Sensitivity↗
NASA NTRS2013

Climate Sensitivity, Sea Level, and Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO2 covariations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea-level sensitivity to climate change. Climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state, but potentially can be accurately inferred from precise palaeoclimate data. Pleistocene climate oscillations yield a fast-feedback climate sensitivity of 3+/-1deg C for a 4 W/sq m CO2 forcing if Holocene warming relative to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is used as calibration, but the error (uncertainty) is substantial and partly subjective because of poorly defined LGM global temperature and possible human influences in the Holocene. Glacial-to-interglacial climate change leading to the prior (Eemian) interglacial is less ambiguous and implies a sensitivity in the upper part of the above range, i.e. 3-4deg C for a 4 W/sq m CO2 forcing. Slow feedbacks, especially change of ice sheet size and atmospheric CO2, amplify the total Earth system sensitivity by an amount that depends on the time scale considered. Ice sheet response time is poorly defined, but we show that the slow response and hysteresis in prevailing ice sheet models are exaggerated. We use a global model, simplified to essential processes, to investigate state dependence of climate sensitivity, finding an increased sensitivity towards warmer climates, as low cloud cover is diminished and increased water vapour elevates the tropopause. Burning all fossil fuels, we conclude, would make most of the planet uninhabitable by humans, thus calling into question strategies that emphasize adaptation to climate change.

sea level↗
NASA NTRS2015

Implications for Climate Sensitivity from the Response to Individual Forcings

Climate sensitivity to doubled CO2 is a widely-used metric of the large-scale response to external forcing. Climate models predict a wide range for two commonly used definitions: the transient climate response (TCR: the warming after 70 years of CO2 concentrations that riseat 1 per year), and the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS: the equilibrium temperature change following a doubling of CO2 concentrations). Many observational datasets have been used to constrain these values, including temperature trends over the recent past 16, inferences from paleo-climate and process-based constraints from the modern satellite eras. However, as the IPCC recently reported different classes of observational constraints produce somewhat incongruent ranges. Here we show that climate sensitivity estimates derived from recent observations must account for the efficacy of each forcing active during the historical period. When we use single forcing experiments to estimate these efficacies and calculate climate sensitivity from the observed twentieth-century warming, our estimates of both TCR and ECS are revised upward compared to previous studies, improving the consistency with independent constraints.

Sensitivity↗
NASA NTRS2004

Critical Climate-Sensitive and Important Grain-Producing Regions: Grain Production/Yield Variations Due to Climate Fluctuations

Ideally, the Crop Country Inventory, CCI, is a methodology for the pre-harvest prediction of large variations in a country s crop production. This is accomplished by monitoring the historical climatic fluctuations, especially during the crop calendar period, in a climate sensitive large crop production region or sub-country, rather than the entire country. The argument can be made that the climatic fluctuations in the climatic sensitive region are responsible for the major annual crop country variations and that the remainder of the country, without major climatic fluctuations for a given year, can be assumed to be a steady-state crop producer. The principal data set that has been used is the Global Climate Mode (GCM) data from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), taken over the last half century. As a test of its accuracy, GCM data can and has been correlated with the actual meteorological station data at the station site.

Welker, J. E.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Converging Climate Sensitivities of European Forests Between Observed Radial Tree Growth and Vegetation Models

The impacts of climate variability and trends on European forests are unevenly distributed across different bioclimatic zones and species. Extreme climate events are also becoming more frequent and it is unknown how they will affect feed backs of CO2 between forest ecosystems and the atmosphere. An improved understanding of species differences at the regional scale of the response of forest productivity to climate variation and extremes is thus important for forecasting forest dynamics. In this study, we evaluate the climate sensitivity of above ground net primary production (NPP) simulated by two dynamic global vegetation models (DGVM; ORCHIDEE and LPJ-wsl) against tree ring width (TRW) observations from about1000 sites distributed across Europe. In both the model simulations and the TRW observations, forests in northern Europe and the Alps respond positively to warmer spring and summer temperature, and their overall temperature sensitivity is larger than that of the soil-moisture-limited forests in central Europe and Mediterranean regions. Compared with TRW observations, simulated NPP from ORCHIDEE and LPJ-wsl appear to be overly sensitive to climatic factors. Our results indicate that the models lack biological processes that control time lags, such as carbohydrate storage and remobilization, that delay the effects of radial growth dynamics to climate. Our study highlights the need for re-evaluating the physiological controls on the climate sensitivity of NPP simulated by DGVMs. In particular, DGVMs could be further enhanced by a more detailed representation of carbon reserves and allocation that control year-to year variation in plant growth.

Zhang, Zhen↗
NASA NTRS1996

Methyl bromide: ocean sources, ocean sinks, and climate sensitivity

The oceans play an important role in the geochemical cycle of methyl bromide (CH3Br), the major carrier of O3-destroying bromine to the stratosphere. The quantity of CH3Br produced annually in seawater is comparable to the amount entering the atmosphere each year from natural and anthropogenic sources. The production mechanism is unknown but may be biological. Most of this CH3Br is consumed in situ by hydrolysis or reaction with chloride. The size of the fraction which escapes to the atmosphere is poorly constrained; measurements in seawater and the atmosphere have been used to justify both a large oceanic CH3Br flux to the atmosphere and a small net ocean sink. Since the consumption reactions are extremely temperature-sensitive, small temperature variations have large effects on the CH3Br concentration in seawater, and therefore on the exchange between the atmosphere and the ocean. The net CH3Br flux is also sensitive to variations in the rate of CH3Br production. We have quantified these effects using a simple steady state mass balance model. When CH3Br production rates are linearly scaled with seawater chlorophyll content, this model reproduces the latitudinal variations in marine CH3Br concentrations observed in the east Pacific Ocean by Singh et al. [1983] and by Lobert et al. [1995]. The apparent correlation of CH3Br production with primary production explains the discrepancies between the two observational studies, strengthening recent suggestions that the open ocean is a small net sink for atmospheric CH3Br, rather than a large net source. The Southern Ocean is implicated as a possible large net source of CH3Br to the atmosphere. Since our model indicates that both the direction and magnitude of CH3Br exchange between the atmosphere and ocean are extremely sensitive to temperature and marine productivity, and since the rate of CH3Br production in the oceans is comparable to the rate at which this compound is introduced to the atmosphere, even small perturbations to temperature or productivity can modify atmospheric CH3Br. Therefore atmospheric CH3Br should be sensitive to climate conditions. Our modeling indicates that climate-induced CH3Br variations can be larger than those resulting from small (+/- 25%) changes in the anthropogenic source, assuming that this source comprises less than half of all inputs. Future measurements of marine CH3Br, temperature, and primary production should be combined with such models to determine the relationship between marine biological activity and CH3Br production. Better understanding of the biological term is especially important to assess the importance of non-anthropogenic sources to stratospheric ozone loss and the sensitivity of these sources to global climate change.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗
NASA NTRS1984

Effects of dynamical heat fluxes on model climate sensitivity

A coupled high and low latitude radiative-dynamical model of the annual mean northern hemisphere has been constructed in order to study the interactions of the vertical and meridional heat fluxes and their feedback effect on model climate sensitivity. The model's climate sensitivity to solar constant changes and CO2 increases is investigated, and the effect of feedback in the dynamical fluxes on model climate sensitivity is examined. Nonlinear interactions between heat fluxes and other feedbacks such as radiation-temperature, ice albedo, and humidity are also discussed.

Wang, W.-C.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Observational Constraints on the Effective Climate Sensitivity from the Historical Period

The observed warming in the atmosphere and ocean can be used to estimate the climate sensitivity linked to present-day feedbacks, which is referred to as the effective climate sensitivity (Shist). However, such an estimate is affected by uncertainty in the radiative forcing, particularly aerosols, over the historical period. Here, we make use of detection and attribution techniques to derive the surface air temperature and ocean warming that can be attributed directly to greenhouse gas increases. These serve as inputs to a simple energy budget to infer the likelihood of Shist in response to observed greenhouse gases increases over two time periods (1862–2012 and 1955–2012). The benefit of using greenhouse gas attributable quantities is that they are not subject to uncertainties in the aerosol forcing (other than uncertainty in the attribution to greenhouse gas versus aerosol forcing not captured by the multi-model aerosol response pattern). The resulting effective climate sensitivity estimate, Shist, ranges from 1.3 °Cto 3.1 °C(5%–95% range) over the full instrumental period (1862–2012) for our best estimate, and gets slightly wider when considering further uncertainties. This estimate increases to 1.7 °C–4.6 °C if using the shorter period (1955–2012).We also evaluate the climate model simulated surface air temperature and ocean heat content increase in response to greenhouse gas forcing over the same periods, and compare them with the observationally-constrained values.We find that that the ocean warming simulated in greenhouse gas only simulations in models considered here is consistent with that attributed to greenhouse gas increases from observations, while one model simulates more greenhouse gas-induced surface air warming than observed. However, other models with sensitivity outside our range show greenhouse gas warming that is consistent with that attributed in observations, emphasising that feedbacks during the historical period may differ from the feedbacks at CO2 doubling and from those at true equilibrium.

Tokarska, Katarzyna B↗
NASA NTRS1984

Climate sensitivity with a seasonal cycle energy balance model

The sensitivity of climate which may have a local maximum as the ice cap passes through a midlatitude region where the atmosphere's transport efficiency varies strongly with latitude is examined. This behavior, found in a two level primitive equations climate model forced with annual mean insolation, was reproduced in an energy balance model (EBM) by making the diffusion coefficient a function of latitude. The two level seasonally varying EBM was applied and the global mean surface temperature vs. solar constant for this model are shown and two regions of enhanced sensitivity appear. The snowcover distributions around the year for three cases are shown.

Suarez, M. J.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Comparison of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity Estimates From Slab Ocean, 150‐Year, and Longer Simulations

We compare equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) estimates from pairs of long (≥ 800‐year) control and abruptly quadrupled CO2 simulations with shorter (150, 300 year) coupled atmosphere‐ocean simulations and Slab Ocean Models (SOM). Consistent with previous work, ECS estimates from shorter coupled simulations based on annual averages for years 1‐150 underestimate those from SOM (‐8% ± 13%) and long (‐14% ± 8%) simulations. Analysis of only years 21‐150 improved agreement with SOM (‐2% ± 14%) and long (‐8% ± 10%) estimates. Use of pentadal averages for years 51‐150 results in improved agreement with long simulations (‐4% ± 11%). While ECS estimates from current generation US models based on SOM and coupled annual averages of years 1‐150 range from 2.6°C to 5.3°C, estimates based longer simulations of the same models range from 3.2°C to 7.0°C. Such variations between methods argues for caution in comparison and interpretation of ECS estimates across models.

Climate sensitivity↗