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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records

Advanced Concepts: Aneutronic Fusion Power and Propulsion

Aneutronic Fusion for In-Space thrust, power. Clean energy & potential nuclear gains. Fusion plant concepts, potential to use advanced fuels. Methods to harness ionic momentum for high Isp thrust plus direct power conversion into electricity will be presented.

Chapman, John J.↗

Energy Servers Deliver Clean, Affordable Power

K.R. Sridhar developed a fuel cell device for Ames Research Center, that could use solar power to split water into oxygen for breathing and hydrogen for fuel on Mars. Sridhar saw the potential of the technology, when reversed, to create clean energy on Earth. He founded Bloom Energy, of Sunnyvale, California, to advance the technology. Today, the Bloom Energy Server is providing cost-effective, environmentally friendly energy to a host of companies such as eBay, Google, and The Coca-Cola Company. Bloom's NASA-derived Energy Servers generate energy that is about 67-percent cleaner than a typical coal-fired power plant when using fossil fuels and 100-percent cleaner with renewable fuels.

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Crystal Lattice Controlled SiGe Thermoelectric Materials with High Figure of Merit

Direct energy conversion between thermal and electrical energy, based on thermoelectric (TE) effect, has the potential to recover waste heat and convert it to provide clean electric power. The energy conversion efficiency is related to the thermoelectric figure of merit ZT expressed as ZT=S(exp 2)(sigma)T/Kappa, T is temperature, S is the Seebeck coefficient, sigma is conductance and Kappa is thermal conductivity. For a lower thermal conductivity Kappa and high power factor (S(exp 2)(sigma)), our current strategy is the development of rhombohedrally strained single crystalline SiGe materials that are highly [111]-oriented twinned. The development of a SiGe "twin lattice structure (TLS)" plays a key role in phonon scattering. The TLS increases the electrical conductivity and decreases thermal conductivity due to phonon scattering at stacking faults generated from the 60 X rotated primary twin structure. To develop high performance materials, the substrate temperature, chamber working pressure, and DC sputtering power are controlled for the aligned growth production of SiGe layer and TLS on a c-plane sapphire. Additionally, a new elevated temperature thermoelectric characterization system, that measures the thermal diffusivity and Seebeck effect nondestructively, was developed. The material properties were characterized at various temperatures and optimized process conditions were experimentally determined. The present paper encompasses the technical discussions toward the development of thermoelectric materials and the measurement techniques.

Kim, Hyun-Jung↗

Spinoff 2010

Topics covered include: Burnishing Techniques Strengthen Hip Implants; Signal Processing Methods Monitor Cranial Pressure; Ultraviolet-Blocking Lenses Protect, Enhance Vision; Hyperspectral Systems Increase Imaging Capabilities; Programs Model the Future of Air Traffic Management; Tail Rotor Airfoils Stabilize Helicopters, Reduce Noise; Personal Aircraft Point to the Future of Transportation; Ducted Fan Designs Lead to Potential New Vehicles; Winglets Save Billions of Dollars in Fuel Costs; Sensor Systems Collect Critical Aerodynamics Data; Coatings Extend Life of Engines and Infrastructure; Radiometers Optimize Local Weather Prediction; Energy-Efficient Systems Eliminate Icing Danger for UAVs; Rocket-Powered Parachutes Rescue Entire Planes; Technologies Advance UAVs for Science, Military; Inflatable Antennas Support Emergency Communication; Smart Sensors Assess Structural Health; Hand-Held Devices Detect Explosives and Chemical Agents; Terahertz Tools Advance Imaging for Security, Industry; LED Systems Target Plant Growth; Aerogels Insulate Against Extreme Temperatures; Image Sensors Enhance Camera Technologies; Lightweight Material Patches Allow for Quick Repairs; Nanomaterials Transform Hairstyling Tools; Do-It-Yourself Additives Recharge Auto Air Conditioning; Systems Analyze Water Quality in Real Time; Compact Radiometers Expand Climate Knowledge; Energy Servers Deliver Clean, Affordable Power; Solutions Remediate Contaminated Groundwater; Bacteria Provide Cleanup of Oil Spills, Wastewater; Reflective Coatings Protect People and Animals; Innovative Techniques Simplify Vibration Analysis; Modeling Tools Predict Flow in Fluid Dynamics; Verification Tools Secure Online Shopping, Banking; Toolsets Maintain Health of Complex Systems; Framework Resources Multiply Computing Power; Tools Automate Spacecraft Testing, Operation; GPS Software Packages Deliver Positioning Solutions; Solid-State Recorders Enhance Scientific Data Collection; Computer Models Simulate Fine Particle Dispersion; Composite Sandwich Technologies Lighten Components; Cameras Reveal Elements in the Short Wave Infrared; Deformable Mirrors Correct Optical Distortions; Stitching Techniques Advance Optics Manufacturing; Compact, Robust Chips Integrate Optical Functions; Fuel Cell Stations Automate Processes, Catalyst Testing; Onboard Systems Record Unique Videos of Space Missions; Space Research Results Purify Semiconductor Materials; and Toolkits Control Motion of Complex Robotics.

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Space Solar Power Demonstrations: Challenges and Progress

The prospects of using electrical power beamed from space are coming closer to reality with the continued pursuit and improvements in the supporting space solar research and technology. Space Solar Power (SSP) has been explored off and on for approximately three decades as a viable alternative and clean energy source. Results produced through the more recent Space Solar Power Exploratory Research and Technology (SERT) program involving extensive participation by industry, universities, and government has provided a sound technical basis for believing that technology can be improved to the extent that SSP systems can be built, economically feasible, and successfully deployed in space. Considerable advancements have been made in conceptual designs and supporting technologies including solar power generation, wireless power transmission, power management distribution, thermal management and materials, and the integrated systems engineering assessments. Basic technologies have progressed to the point were the next logical step is to formulate and conduct sophisticated demonstrations involving prototype hardware as final proof of concepts and identify high end technology readiness levels in preparation for full scale SSP systems designs. In addition to continued technical development issues, environmental and safety issues must be addressed and appropriate actions taken to reassure the public and prepare them for the future use of this alternative renewable energy resource. Accomplishing these objectives will allow informed future decisions regarding further SSP and related R&D investments by both NASA management and prospective external partners. In particular, accomplishing these objectives will also guide further definition of SSP and related technology roadmaps including performance objectives, resources and schedules; including 'multi-purpose' applications (terrestrial markets, science, commercial development of space, and other government missions).

Howell, Joe T.↗

Washington, D.C. & Maryland Energy: Estimating Solar Potential Using NASA POWER Data to Inform Renewable Energy Policy for Washington, D.C.

In line with the Sustainable D.C. 2.0 plan to combat climate change, Washington D.C. aims to decrease its greenhouse gas emissions by 100% by 2050. As solar energy is a clean, renewable energy form, its integration into the region’s power grids lowers energy costs and incentivizes sustainable development. We partnered with the Washington D.C. Department of Energy & Environment (DOEE) to determine how urban areas surrounding D.C. can better be incorporated into decisions regarding renewable energy policy. The team used NASA’s Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources (POWER) solar data and a Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) derived digital surface model, to estimate and visualize rooftop solar potential for Maryland’s Prince George’s and Montgomery counties. POWER provided solar irradiance data adjusted for tilt angle while the digital surface model contributed aspect and slope data. This methodology factored out areas that were unsuitable for solar panel installation while displaying areas that possess a high potential for energy return. The team found the total rooftop solar potential for the study area to be almost 32 million kW, which is equivalent to roughly 660 kW per building. The methodology used to generate the solar potential maps can be applied to other regions of the country seeking to efficiently utilize solar energy. The end users at the DOEE can use our resulting solar potential map and data table to effectively target buildings that have the highest potential to generate solar energy.

Edward Cronin↗

Recent GRC Aerospace Technologies Applicable to Terrestrial Energy Systems

This paper is an overview of a wide range of recent aerospace technologies under development at the NASA Glenn Research Center, in collaboration with other NASA centers, government agencies, industry and academia. The focused areas are space solar power, advanced power management and distribution systems, Stirling cycle conversion systems, fuel cells, advanced thin film photovoltaics and batteries, and combustion technologies. The aerospace-related objectives of the technologies are generation of space power, development of cost-effective and reliable, high performance power systems, cryogenic applications, energy storage, and reduction in gas-turbine emissions, with attendant clean jet engines. The terrestrial energy applications of the technologies include augmentation of bulk power in ground power distribution systems, and generation of residential, commercial and remote power, as well as promotion of pollution-free environment via reduction in combustion emissions.

Kankam, David↗

ASPEC: Solar power satellite

The solar power satellite (SPS) will provide a clean, reliable source of energy for large-scale consumption. The system will use satellites in geostationary orbits around the Earth to capture the Sun's energy. The intercepted sunlight will be converted to laser beam energy that can be transmitted to the Earth's surface. Ground systems on the Earth will convert the transmissions from space into electric power. The preliminary design for the SPS consists of one satellite in orbit around the Earth transmitting energy to a single ground station. The SPS design uses multilayer solar cell technology arranged on a 20 km squared planar array to intercept sunlight and convert it to an electric voltage. Power conditioning devices then send the electricity to a laser, which transmits the power to the surface of the Earth. A ground station will convert the beam into electricity. Typically, a single SPS will supply 5 GW of power to the ground station. Due to the large mass of the SPS, about 41 million kg, construction in space is needed in order to keep the structural mass low. The orbit configuration for this design is to operate a single satellite in geosynchronous orbit (GEO). The GEO allows the system to be positioned above a single receiving station and remain in sunlight 99 percent of the time. Construction will take place in low Earth orbit (LEO); array sections, 20 in total, will be sailed on solar wind out to the GEO location in 150 days. These individual transportation sections are referred to as solar sailing array panels (SSAP's). The primary truss elements used to support the array are composed of composite tubular members in a pentahedral arrangement. Smart segments consisting of passive and active damping devices will increase the control of dynamic SPS modes.

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Battery Technology Stores Clean Energy

Headquartered in Fremont, California, Deeya Energy Inc. is now bringing its flow batteries to commercial customers around the world after working with former Marshall Space Flight Center scientist, Lawrence Thaller. Deeya's liquid-cell batteries have higher power capability than Thaller's original design, are less expensive than lead-acid batteries, are a clean energy alternative, and are 10 to 20 times less expensive than nickel-metal hydride batteries, lithium-ion batteries, and fuel cell options.

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Photovoltaic power without batteries for continuous cathodic protection

The COASTSYSTA designed, installed, and started up on 20 Jan. 1990, a state-of-the-art stand alone photovoltaic powered impressed current cathodic protection system (PVCPSYS) not requiring any auxiliary/battery backup power for steel and iron submerged structures. The PVCPSYS installed on 775' of steel sheet piling of a Navy bulkhead is continuing to provide complete, continuous corrosion protection. This has been well documented by COASTSYSTA and verified on-site by the U.S. Army Civil Engineering Research Laboratory, Champaign, Illinois and the Navy Energy Program Office-Photovoltaic Programs, China Lake, California. The Department of Defense (DoD) Photovoltaic Review Committee and Sandia National Laboratories consider this successful and cost effective system a major advance in the application of photovoltaic power. The PVCPSYS uses only renewable energy and is environmentally clean. A patent is pending on the new technology. Other possible PVCPSYS applications are mothballed ships, docks, dams, locks, bridges, marinas, offshore structures, and pipelines. The initial cost savings by installing a PVCPSYS vs. a conventional CP system was in excess of $46,000.00.

Muehl, W. W., Sr.↗

A preliminary design for a satellite power system

Outlined here is a preliminary design for a Solar Power Satellite (SPS) system. The SPS will provide a clean, reliable source of energy for mass consumption. The system will use satellites in geostationary orbits around the Earth to capture the sun's energy. The intercepted sunlight will be converted to laser beam energy which can be transmitted to the Earth's surface. Ground systems on the Earth will convert the transmissions from space into electric power. The preliminary design for the SPS consists of one satellite in orbit around the Earth transmitting to one ground station. The SPs technology uses multi-layer solar cell technology arranged on a 20 sq km planar array to intercept sunlight and convert it to an electric voltage. Power conditioning devices then send the electricity to a laser, which transmits the power to the surface of the Earth. A ground station will convert the beam into electricity. Construction will take place in low Earth orbit and array sections, 20 in total, will be sailed on the solar wind out to the GEO location in 150 days. These individual transportation sections are referred to as solar sailing panels (SSAPs). The primary truss elements used to support the arrays are composed on composite tubular members in a pentahedral arrangement. Smart segments consisting of passive and active damping devices will increase the control of dynamic SPS modes.

Enriquez, Clara V.↗

About an Element of Human Greatness

One of the things Dr. von Braun instinctively knew was that it was as nearly important to explain why we should go into space as to build the machines to take us there. He wrote books and magazine articles, spoke to everyone he could formally and informally, and spent his life to his dying day seeking to educate everyone on the importance of and need for spaceflight. Why should we go? I think there are actually two principle reasons: 1) Because the solar system is filled with cheap, clean energy, and we need to go get it, and, 2) this one may well be even more important, because we need a purpose for ourselves and our country. I think we need an eternal frontier to push up against, our purpose to conquer and settle it. The nice thing about doing that is the solar system is a very rich place, filled with not only mineral wealth but energy, a nearly inexhaustible supply. And if there s one thing this country and this planet desperately needs and is willing to pay for now and forever is energy. The solar system is where it is. We've got to go after it. I believe, then, that Americans have both a self-interest and a patriotic duty to convince ourselves it is time to take another giant step into space. The way to do that is to do what Dr. von Braun did, cut metal and start flying. Success engenders success. Dr. von Braun s grand dream need never die. NASA can spark a twenty-first-century revolution in transportation and energy that could fundamentally change the way we fly through space, power the world, even care for the sick if we do it right. All those things require cheap and clean energy. It exists in the solar system in a variety of forms. Solar energy is the most obvious form, but there are others, including helium-3, which may be the perfect fuel for fusion reactors, and also just happens to cover the Moon. I believe we must go after it. We just need to believe in ourselves and our purpose. I call on all of you here today to join together, get things moving again, and get serious about conquering space. If we do, we'll assure the country s prosperity, and the world s survival, too, for centuries. Along the way, maybe we ll finally understand why my old preacher thought St. Peter s comment about looking for new heavens was so important. According to His promise, it s a big challenge, a huge responsibility, to try to fulfill such a promise and prophecy.

Hickam, Homer↗

A Renewably Powered Hydrogen Generation and Fueling Station Community Project

The proposed project goal is to encourage the use of renewable energy and clean fuel technologies for transportation and other applications while generating economic development. This can be done by creating an incubator for collaborators, and creating a manufacturing hub for the energy economy of the future by training both white- and blue-collar workers for the new energy economy. Hydrogen electrolyzer fueling stations could be mass-produced, shipped and installed in collaboration with renewable energy power stations, or installed connected to the grid with renewable power added later.

Lyons, Valerie J.↗

Space and Terrestrial Power System Integration Optimization Code BRMAPS for Gas Turbine Space Power Plants With Nuclear Reactor Heat Sources

In view of the difficult times the US and global economies are experiencing today, funds for the development of advanced fission reactors nuclear power systems for space propulsion and planetary surface applications are currently not available. However, according to the Energy Policy Act of 2005 the U.S. needs to invest in developing fission reactor technology for ground based terrestrial power plants. Such plants would make a significant contribution toward drastic reduction of worldwide greenhouse gas emissions and associated global warming. To accomplish this goal the Next Generation Nuclear Plant Project (NGNP) has been established by DOE under the Generation IV Nuclear Systems Initiative. Idaho National Laboratory (INL) was designated as the lead in the development of VHTR (Very High Temperature Reactor) and HTGR (High Temperature Gas Reactor) technology to be integrated with MMW (multi-megawatt) helium gas turbine driven electric power AC generators. However, the advantages of transmitting power in high voltage DC form over large distances are also explored in the seminar lecture series. As an attractive alternate heat source the Liquid Fluoride Reactor (LFR), pioneered at ORNL (Oak Ridge National Laboratory) in the mid 1960's, would offer much higher energy yields than current nuclear plants by using an inherently safe energy conversion scheme based on the Thorium --> U233 fuel cycle and a fission process with a negative temperature coefficient of reactivity. The power plants are to be sized to meet electric power demand during peak periods and also for providing thermal energy for hydrogen (H2) production during "off peak" periods. This approach will both supply electric power by using environmentally clean nuclear heat which does not generate green house gases, and also provide a clean fuel H2 for the future, when, due to increased global demand and the decline in discovering new deposits, our supply of liquid fossil fuels will have been used up. This is expected within the next 30 to 50 years, as predicted by the Hubbert model and confirmed by other global energy consumption prognoses. Having invested national resources into the development of NGNP, the technology and experience accumulated during the project needs to be documented clearly and in sufficient detail for young engineers coming on-board at both DOE and NASA to acquire it. Hands on training on reactor operation, test rigs of turbomachinery, and heat exchanger components, as well as computational tools will be needed. Senior scientist/engineers involved with the development of NGNP should also be encouraged to participate as lecturers, instructors, or adjunct professors at local universities having engineering (mechanical, electrical, nuclear/chemical, and/or materials) as one of their fields of study.

Juhasz, Albert J.↗

Power Operations of the Mars Exploration Rovers

The rovers of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) Mars Exploration Rovers (MER) project, Spirit (MER-A) and Opportunity (MER-B), safely landed on the surface of Mars three weeks apart during January 2004. Spirit and Opportunity were built and operated by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), which is managed by the California Institute of Technology (Caltech) for NASA. Spirit landed at Gusev Crater, 14.8 degrees south of the equator, and operated continuously on the surface of Mars from January 4, 2004 until last contact from Spirit on March 22, 2010. Opportunity landed at Meridiani Planum, a location 2.5 degrees south of the Martian equator. Opportunity operated continuously on the Martian surface from January 25, 2004 until the last received transmission from Opportunity on June 10, 2018. The goal of the MER project was to determine if Mars ever had a habitable environment, in particular, if it ever had water. During their missions, both Spirit and Opportunity found evidence that liquid water once flowed on the surface of Mars. Both Spirit and Opportunity used a 1.33 m2 triple-junction solar array as their power sources. Based on observations of the original Mars rover, the Sojourner rover of the Mars Pathfinder mission that landed on Mars on July 4, 1997, the expectation was that the Martian dust would rapidly accumulate on the solar arrays of Spirit and Opportunity, and that the rovers would not have enough energy to continue operations after 90 Martian days (sols). Instead, due in part to lower dust accumulation rates than expected and numerous dust cleaning events, the Spirit and Opportunity rovers continued to operate on the Martian surface for over 2000 sols (MER-A) and 5000 sols (MER-B), respectively. During this time, the rovers experienced multiple Martian winters and several dust storms. Because the sources of solar array energy loss were known, the solar array energy output offered a method to scientifically estimate the loading and aeolian removal of dust from the solar arrays each sol. The MER Power operations team called this value that they calculated the solar array Dust Factor (DF). Dust Factor was defined as the fraction of sunlight that penetrates the accumulated dust on the surface of the solar array. A Dust Factor of 1.0 would indicate that the solar array was perfectly clean. A Dust Factor of 0.6 would indicate that only 60% of the available sunlight was able to penetrate the accumulated dust on the solar arrays. The MER Power subsystem operations team used the Multi-Mission Power Analysis Tool (MMPAT) to perform these Dust Factor calculations. The MMPAT software tool modeled the behavior of the solar arrays and the batteries as they interacted with the spacecraft power loads over the mission timeline. MMPAT also had knowledge (through telemetry and user inputs) of telemetered Power subsystem voltages and currents, atmospheric opacity (Tau), rover surface location, rover attitude, the planetary tilt and distance of Mars from the sun based on day of year, the instantaneous elevation of the sun based on time of day, temperatures (internal and external), terrain masking, and shadowing (due to the camera mast and antennas). Once all of the known sources of array energy loss are accounted, the remaining difference between the expected array energy and the actual array energy determines the solar array Dust Factor. The assumptions made while determining the Dust Factor are 1) that the single measured atmospheric opacity value (Tau) is constant over the course of the entire sol, 2) there is no measurable solar cell degradation, 3) there are no shorted strings and therefore, 4) all unexpected solar array energy losses are due to accumulated dust on the solar array. Although it cannot provide an absolute measure of dust loading, the determination of solar array Dust Factor provides a useful way of tracking dust accumulation and aeolian dust removal trends on Martian spacecraft. Any spacecraft on the Martian surface is vulnerable to dust, especially solar-powered spacecraft. The Spirit and Opportunity rovers were operational on the Martian surface for much longer than expected due in part to aeolian removal of dust from their solar arrays. The first few dust removal events were a pleasant surprise to the MER operations teams; however, over time a pattern began to arise. In over three Mars Years on the surface, the Power operations team tracked the solar array Dust Factor at Gusev Crater (location of MER-A) and observed that there were several significant dust removal and deposition events in Mars Year (MY) 27, even in the absence of a large dust storm. In MY 28 at Gusev Crater, the large atmospheric opacity (Tau) increase lagged significant dust removal events. Overall at Gusev Crater, there was a pattern of steady dust accumulation on the solar arrays, with a small number of significant dust cleaning events. At Meridiani Planum, where Opportunity rover operated for over seven Mars Years (late MY 26 to mid MY 34), a clear and consistent pattern of dust movement emerged. Meridiani Planum had a predictable, seasonally dependent pattern of gradual and continuous dust accumulation and removal. In summary, this paper explains the reasons for the development of the solar array Dust Factor and how it was used in mission operations. In particular, this paper describes the MMPAT software package, how it models array energy, including the important assumptions, model inputs and sources of error. And finally, this paper will show how the calculated solar array Dust Factor was used at Gusev Crater and Meridiani Planum to predict dust accumulation rates and weather patterns, and the importance of this generated data set for current and future solar- powered missions to Mars, such as the InSight lander and the planned Mars Sample Return rover.

Chin, Keith B.↗

The Abacus/Reflector and Integrated Symmetrical Concentrator: Concepts for Space Solar Power Collection and Transmission

New energy sources are vital for the development of emerging nations, and the growth of industry in developed economies. Also vital is the need for these energy sources to be clean and renewable. For the past several years, NASA has been taking a new look at collecting solar energy in space and transmitting it to Earth, to planetary surfaces, and to orbiting spacecraft. Several innovative concepts are being studied for the space segment component of solar power beaming. One is the Abacus/Reflector, a large sun-oriented array structure fixed to the transmitter, and a rotating RF reflector that tracks a receiving rectenna on Earth. This concept eliminates the need for power-conducting slip rings in rotating joints between the solar collectors and the transmitter. Another concept is the Integrated Symmetrical Concentrator (ISC), composed of two very large segmented reflectors which rotate to collect and reflect the incident sunlight onto two centrally-located photovoltaic arrays. Adjacent to the PV arrays is the RF transmitter, which as a unit track the receiving rectenna, again eliminating power-conducting joints, and in addition reducing the cable lengths between the arrays and transmitter. The metering structure to maintain the position of the reflectors is a long mast, oriented perpendicular to the equatorial orbit plane. This paper presents a status of ongoing systems studies and configurations for the Abacus/Reflector and the ISC concepts, and a top-level study of packaging for launch and assembly.

Carrington, Connie↗

NASA's GreenLab Research Facility: A Guide for a Self-Sustainable Renewable Energy Ecosystem

There is a large gap between the production and demand for energy from alternative fuel and alternative renewable energy sources. The sustainability of humanity, as we know it, directly depends on the ability to secure affordable fuel, food, and freshwater. NASA Glenn Research Center (Glenn) has initiated a laboratory pilot study on using biofuels as viable alternative fuel resources for the field of aviation, as well as utilizing wind and solar technology as alternative renewable energy resources. The GreenLab Research Facility focuses on optimizing biomass feedstock using algae and halophytes as the next generation of renewable aviation fuels. The unique approach in this facility helps achieve optimal biomass feedstock through climatic adaptation of balanced ecosystems that do not use freshwater, compete with food crops, or use arable land. In addition, the GreenLab Research Facility is powered, in part, by alternative and renewable energy sources, reducing the major environmental impact of present electricity sources. The ultimate goal is to have a 100 percent clean energy laboratory that, when combined with biomass feedstock research, has the framework in place for a self-sustainable renewable energy ecosystem that can be duplicated anywhere in the world and can potentially be used to mitigate the shortage of food, fuel, and water. This paper describes the GreenLab Research Facility at Glenn and its power and energy sources, and provides recommendations for worldwide expansion and adoption of the facility s concept.

Bomani, B. M. McDowell↗

The Impact of Decarbonization on Particulate Soiling of Solar Panels

Climate researchers have examined many impacts of climate change on energy supply and demand under various scenarios. However, the effect of changing particulate deposition onto solar panel surfaces on solar power production efficiency (i.e., soiling) has not been studied. We therefore characterize probabilistic outcomes across multiple climate models and scenarios. We find large current regional losses (up to 40% without manual cleaning, up to 20% with monthly cleaning and rain removal) in generation that grow slightly under a high-emission scenario, largely due to regional increases in windblown dust. In contrast, under a low-emissions scenario, potential production increases significantly (2–8% interquartile range with only rain removal) due to reduced soiling, especially in regions of Asia and Africa where anthropogenic aerosols are major contributors to soiling. Projected changes vary widely across models in many dusty areas outside of the Sahara and Arabia. Differences can also be large in regions dominated by anthropogenic aerosols, such as Nigeria, eastern China, and northern India, where the full range across modeled potential power production changes extends from −1 to +11% for the end of the century (without manual cleaning), underscoring the need to consider multiple climate models. With large increases in projected solar power deployment, the relatively small potential production increases reported here could nevertheless represent a large dividend in additional energy production. Hence, reductions in air pollution attributable to decarbonization could provide positive feedback under which a greater deployment of solar power (or other renewables) increases the production of solar power, facilitating the transition to renewable energy.

renewable energy↗