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At least 19 records

Impacts of aerosols on seasonal precipitation and snowpack in California based on convection-permitting WRF-Chem simulations

Here, a version of the WRF-Chem model with fully coupled aerosol–meteorology–snowpack is employed to investigate the impacts of various aerosol sources on precipitation and snowpack in California. In particular, the impacts of locally emitted anthropogenic and dust aerosols, and aerosols transported from outside California are studied. We differentiate three pathways of aerosol effects: aerosol–radiation interaction (ARI), aerosol–snow interaction (ASI), and aerosol–cloud interaction (ACI). The convection-permitting model simulations show that precipitation, snow water equivalent (SWE), and surface air temperature averaged over the whole domain (34–42° N, 117–124° W, not including ocean points) are reduced when aerosols are included, therefore reducing large biases in these variables due to the absence of aerosol effects in the model. Aerosols affect California water resources through the warming of mountaintops and the reduction of precipitation; however, different aerosol sources play different roles in changing surface temperature, precipitation, and snowpack in California by means of various weights of the three pathways. ARI by all aerosols mainly cools the surface, leading to slightly increased SWE over the mountains. Locally emitted dust aerosols warm the surface of mountaintops through ASI, in which the reduced snow albedo associated with dusty snow leads to more surface absorption of solar radiation and reduced SWE. Transported aerosols and local anthropogenic aerosols play a dominant role in increasing nonprecipitating clouds but reducing precipitation through ACI, leading to reduced SWE and runoff on the Sierra Nevada, as well as the warming of mountaintops associated with decreased SWE and hence lower surface albedo. The average changes in surface temperature from October 2012 to June 2013 are about –0.19 and 0.22 K for the whole domain and over mountaintops, respectively. Overall, the averaged reduction during October to June is about 7 % for precipitation, 3 % for SWE, and 7 % for surface runoff for the whole domain, while the corresponding numbers are 12, 10, and 10 % for the mountaintops. The reduction in SWE is more significant in a dry year, with 9 % for the whole domain and 16 % for the mountaintops. The maximum reduction of ~20 % in precipitation occurs in May and is associated with the maximum aerosol loading, leading to the largest decrease in SWE and surface runoff over that period. It is also found that dust aerosols can cause early snowmelt on the mountaintops and reduced surface runoff after April.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Does More Storage Give California More Water?

Abstract Increasing reservoir storage is commonly proposed to mitigate increasing water demand and provide drought reserves, especially in semiarid regions such as California. This paper examines the value of expanding surface reservoir capacity in California using hydroeconomic modeling for historical conditions, a future warm‐dry climate, and California's recently adopted policy to end groundwater overdraft. Results show expanding surface storage capacity rarely provides sizable economic value in most of California. On average, expanding facilities north of California's Delta provides some benefit in 92% of 82 years modeled under historical conditions and in 61% of years modeled in a warm‐dry climate. South of California's Delta, expanding storage capacity provides no benefits in 14% of years modeled under historical conditions and 99% of years modeled with a warm‐dry climate. Results vary across facilities between and within regions. The limited benefit of surface storage capacity expansion to statewide water supply should be considered in planning California's water infrastructure.

Nover, D. M.↗

More Than 40 yr of Potentially Induced Seismicity Close to the San Andreas Fault in San Ardo, Central California

Evidence for fluid–injection–induced seismicity is rare in California hydrocarbon basins, despite widespread injection close to seismically active faults. We investigate a potential case of injection–induced earthquakes associated with San Ardo oilfield operations that began in the early 1950s. The largest potentially induced events occurred in 1955 (M L 5.2) and 1985 (M w 4.5) within ~6 km from the oilfield. We analyze Synthetic Aperture Radar interferometric images acquired by Sentinel–1A/B satellites between 2016 and 2020 and find surface deformation of up to 1.5 cm/yr, indicating pressure–imbalance in parts of the oilfield. Fluid injection in San Ardo is concentrated within highly permeable rocks directly above the granitic basement at a depth of ~800 m. Seismicity predominantly occurs along basement faults at 6–13 km depths. Seismicity and wastewater disposal wells are spatially correlated to the north of the oilfield. Temporal correlations are observed over more than 40 yr with correlation coefficients of up to 0.71 for seismicity within a 24 km distance from the oilfield. Such large distances have not previously been observed in California but are similar to the large spatial footprint of injection in Oklahoma. Furthermore, the San Ardo seismicity shows anomalous clustering with earthquakes consistently occurring at close spatial proximity but long interevent times. Similar clustering has previously been reported in California geothermal fields and may be indicative of seismicity driven by long–term, spatially persistent external forcing.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

California Geothermal Forum: A Path to Increasing Geothermal Development in California

The genesis of this report was a 2016 forum in Sacramento, California, titled 'California Geothermal Forum: A Path to Increasing Geothermal Development in California.' The forum was held at the California Energy Commission's (CEC) headquarters in Sacramento, California with the primary goal being to advance the dialogues for the U.S. Department of Energy's Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) and CEC technical research and development (R&D) focuses for future consideration. The forum convened a diverse group of stakeholders from government, industry, and research to lay out pathways for new geothermal development in California while remaining consistent with critical Federal and State conservation planning efforts, particularly at the Salton Sea.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Future loss of Arctic sea-ice cover could drive a substantial decrease in California’s rainfall [Seasonally ice-free Arctic favors dry California]

From 2012 to 2016, California experienced one of the worst droughts since the start of observational records. As in previous dry periods, precipitation-inducing winter storms were steered away from California by a persistent atmospheric ridging system in the North Pacific. Here in this paper we identify a new link between Arctic sea-ice loss and the North Pacific geopotential ridge development. In a two-step teleconnection, sea-ice changes lead to reorganization of tropical convection that in turn triggers an anticyclonic response over the North Pacific, resulting in significant drying over California. These findings suggest that the ability of climate models to accurately estimate future precipitation changes over California is also linked to the fidelity with which future sea-ice changes are simulated. We conclude that sea-ice loss of the magnitude expected in the next decades could substantially impact California’s precipitation, thus highlighting another mechanism by which human-caused climate change could exacerbate future California droughts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

2025 California Demand Response Potential Study - Charting California’s Demand Response Future. Final Report on Phase 2 Results

California’s legislative and regulatory goals for renewable energy are changing the power grid’s dynamics. Increased variable generation resource penetration connected to the bulk power system, as well as, distributed energy resources (DERs) connected to the distribution system affect the grid’s reliable operation over many different time scales (e.g., days to hours to minutes to seconds). As the state continues this transition, it will require careful planning to ensure resources with the right characteristics are available to meet changing grid management needs. Demand response (DR) has the potential to provide important resources for keeping the electricity grid stable and efficient, to defer upgrades to generation, transmission and distribution systems, and to deliver customer economic benefits. This study estimates the potential size and cost of future DR resources for California’s three investor-owned utilities (IOUs): Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E), Southern California Edison Company (SCE), and San Diego Gas & Electric Company (SDG&E). Our goal is to provide data-driven insights as the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) evaluates how to enhance DR’s role in meeting California’s resource planning needs and operational requirements. We address two fundamental questions: 1. What cost-competitive DR service types will meet California’s future grid needs as it moves towards clean energy and advanced infrastructure? 2. What is the size and cost of the expected resource base for the DR service types?

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

California: California's Clean Energy Resources and Economy [Brochure]

California is remarkably well positioned to compete in the global race for clean energy. It is second in the nation among states with renewable power capacity, contains multiple renewable energy resources from all types of renewable energy, and is the nation’s leader in solar, biomass, and geothermal power generation. For example, California has the most solar photovoltaic installations in the country and is a leader in wind energy. It added more new wind power than any other state in 2011, and wind now makes up 4% of the state’s electricity generation. The state also takes advantage of abundant hydroelectric resources from California rivers. California is also a perennial leader in energy efficiency investment, leading the country with $\$$1.1 billion in utility investment for energy efficiency programs in 2010. Investment from 2010–2012 is expected to yield savings of nearly 7,000 gigawatt hours of electricity. The state has set unprecedented energy efficiency standards for appliances, equipment, and residential and commercial buildings. For example, the recently approved 2013 Building Energy Efficiency Standards will result in 25% and 30% more efficient residential and commercial construction standards respectively than those that they will be replacing, providing more savings for California energy users.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Water-Energy Considerations in California’s Agricultural Sector and Opportunities to Provide Flexibility to California’s Grid

Water and energy use on farms are deeply linked, and trends changing the way water is used on farms have implications for the electrical grid, and vice versa. In 2014, California’s agricultural sector accounted for approximately 80% of the state’s water consumption and 5% of its electricity use. The majority of the electricity was for surface conveyance and groundwater pumping. Diminishing surface water availability and increasing reliance on groundwater pumping are likely to increase future energy demand. These trends are coincident with farms embracing new precision irrigation technologies that increase water productivity and crop yield, but may have the potential of other collateral effects, such as increasing energy intensity of irrigation and total electricity use, and thus demand on the grid. The impacts of these technologies and their loads on the electrical grid have been explored only to a limited degree, and the potential grid benefits afforded by these technologies have been studied even less. For example, studies show that California’s increasing adoption of renewable electricity may result in excess generation during certain periods of the day, and that responsive load management (i.e. demand response) may be a cost-effective method to shift loads to utilize this excess generation. The degree to which farms in California do or can provide responsive loads has not been explored. In this paper, we explore whether farms that are adopting technologies and automation for irrigation management can provide co-benefits to the grower and the electrical grid. To do so, we define the characteristics of future grid needs specifically related to responsive load management, explore existing market mechanisms and policies for proving those resources, estimate the temporal distribution of energy use for irrigation in California, and develop scenarios of how irrigation loads might meet these needs. We conclude by exploring potential ancillary service benefits and associated revenues that California’s agricultural industry may provide. Ancillary services include using loads to dynamically adjust demand on the system to alleviate short-run ramps and disturbances at timescales ranging from seconds up to an hour. With higher penetrations of renewable resources, larger quantities of ancillary services will be necessary and may become more valuable to the grid than traditional demand response. Ancillary services from agricultural loads is a nascent topic, and no such analysis has been conducted to quantify its benefits to our knowledge.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Estimating Policy-Driven Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trajectories in California: The California Greenhouse Gas Inventory Spreadsheet (GHGIS) Model

A California Greenhouse Gas Inventory Spreadsheet (GHGIS) model was developed to explore the impact of combinations of state policies on state greenhouse gas (GHG) and regional criteria pollutant emissions. The model included representations of all GHG- emitting sectors of the California economy (including those outside the energy sector, such as high global warming potential gases, waste treatment, agriculture and forestry) in varying degrees of detail, and was carefully calibrated using available data and projections from multiple state agencies and other sources. Starting from basic drivers such as population, numbers of households, gross state product, numbers of vehicles, etc., the model calculated energy demands by type (various types of liquid and gaseous hydrocarbon fuels, electricity and hydrogen), and finally calculated emissions of GHGs and three criteria pollutants: reactive organic gases (ROG), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and fine (2.5 ?m) particulate matter (PM2.5). Calculations were generally statewide, but in some sectors, criteria pollutants were also calculated for two regional air basins: the South Coast Air Basin (SCAB) and the San Joaquin Valley (SJV). Three scenarios were developed that attempt to model: (1) all committed policies, (2) additional, uncommitted policy targets and (3) potential technology and market futures. Each scenario received extensive input from state energy planning agencies, in particular the California Air Resources Board. Results indicate that all three scenarios are able to meet the 2020 statewide GHG targets, and by 2030, statewide GHG emissions range from between 208 and 396 MtCO2/yr. However, none of the scenarios are able to meet the 2050 GHG target of 85 MtCO2/yr, with emissions ranging from 188 to 444 MtCO2/yr, so additional policies will need to be developed for California to meet this stringent future target. A full sensitivity study of major scenario assumptions was also performed. In terms of criteria pollutants, targets were less well-defined, but while all three scenarios were able to make significant reductions in ROG, NOx and PM2.5 both statewide and in the two regional air basins, they may nonetheless fall short of what will be required by future federal standards. Specifically, in Scenario 1, regional NOx emissions are approximately three times the estimated targets for both 2023 and 2032, and in Scenarios 2 and 3, NOx emissions are approximately twice the estimated targets. Further work is required in this area, including detailed regional air quality modeling, in order to determine likely pathways for attaining these stringent targets.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Transport and mixing patterns over Central California during the carbonaceous aerosol and radiative effects study (CARES)

We describe the synoptic and regional-scale meteorological conditions that affected the transport and mixing of trace gases and aerosols in the vicinity of Sacramento, California during June 2010 when the Carbonaceous Aerosol and Radiative Effects Study (CARES) was conducted. The meteorological measurements collected by various instruments deployed during the campaign and the performance of the chemistry version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF-Chem) are both discussed. WRF-Chem was run daily during the campaign to forecast the spatial and temporal variation of carbon monoxide emitted from 20 anthropogenic source regions in California to guide aircraft sampling. The model is shown to reproduce the overall circulations and boundary-layer characteristics in the region, although errors in the upslope wind speed and boundary-layer depth contribute to differences in the observed and simulated carbon monoxide. Thermally-driven upslope flows that transported pollutants from Sacramento over the foothills of the Sierra Nevada occurred every afternoon, except during three periods when the passage of mid-tropospheric troughs disrupted the regional-scale flow patterns. The meteorological conditions after the passage of the third trough were the most favorable for photochemistry and likely formation of secondary organic aerosols. Meteorological measurements and model forecasts indicate that the Sacramento pollutant plume was likely transported over a downwind site that collected trace gas and aerosol measurements during 23 time periods; however, direct transport occurred during only eight of these periods. The model also showed that emissions from the San Francisco Bay area transported by intrusions of marine air contributed a large fraction of the carbon monoxide in the vicinity of Sacramento, suggesting that this source likely affects local chemistry. Contributions from other sources of pollutants, such as those in the Sacramento Valley and San Joaquin Valley, were relatively low. Aerosol layering in the free troposphere was observed during the morning by an airborne Lidar. WRF-Chem forecasts showed that mountain venting processes contributed to aged pollutants aloft in the valley atmosphere that are then entrained into the growing boundary layer the subsequent day.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing the PACE of California residential solar deployment: Impacts of Property Assessed Clean Energy programs on residential solar photovoltaic deployment in California, 2010-2015

A new study by Berkeley Lab found that residential Property Assessed Clean Energy (R-PACE) programs increased deployment of residential solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in California, raising it by about 7-12% in cities that adopt these programs. R-PACE is a financing mechanism that uses a voluntary property tax assessment, paid off over time, to facilitate energy improvements and, in some jurisdictions, water and resilience measures. While previous studies demonstrated that early, regional R-PACE programs increased solar PV deployment, this new analysis is the first to demonstrate these impacts from the large, statewide R-PACE programs dominating the California market today, which use private capital to fund the upfront costs of the improvements. Berkeley Lab estimated the impacts using econometric techniques on two samples: -Large cities only, allowing annual demographic and economic data as control variables -All California cities, without these annual data Analysis of both samples controls for several factors other than R-PACE that would be expected to drive solar PV deployment. We infer that on average, cities with R-PACE programs were associated with greater solar PV deployment in our study period (2010-2015). In the large cities sample, solar PV deployment in jurisdictions with R-PACE programs was higher by 1.1 watts per owner-occupied household per month, or 12%. Across all cities, solar PV deployment in jurisdictions with R-PACE programs was higher by 0.6 watts per owner-occupied household per month, or 7%. The large cities results are statistically significant at conventional levels; the all-cities results are not. The estimates imply that the majority of solar PV deployment financed by R-PACE programs would likely not have occurred in their absence. Results suggest that R-PACE programs have increased PV deployment in California even in relatively recent years, as R-PACE programs have grown in market share and as alternate approaches for financing solar PV have developed. The U.S. Department of Energy’s Building Technologies Office supported this research.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

California Energy Incentive Programs: An Annual Update on Key Energy Issues and Financial Opportunities for Federal Sites in California

A spate of recently enacted energy legislation and associated program changes is providing numerous opportunities to help California federal energy managers cut costs and meet their renewables, energy efficiency and GHG emissions goals. In April 2011, Governor Jerry Brown approved the nation’s most ambitious renewable portfolio standard (RPS), which requires 33% of the state’s electricity to come from renewable energy sources by 2020. Policy changes that will support the RPS include expanded eligibility rules that fill previous gaps in incentives for certain sizes of on-site renewable energy systems. Program updates described in this document include: $200 million more in funding for California Solar Initiative rebates to commercial and industrial customers; an increase in the eligible system size for the Feed-In-Tariff (FIT) from 1.5MW to 3MW; and pending changes that may allow customer-side systems to sell tradable renewable energy credits (TRECs) to entities with RPS compliance obligations in California.

California, Incentive, Energy, Financial, Federal↗

2015 California Demand Response Potential Study - Charting California’s Demand Response Future. Interim Report on Phase 1 Results

Demand response (DR) is an important resource for keeping the electricity grid stable and efficient; deferring upgrades to generation, transmission, and distribution systems; and providing other customer economic benefits. This study estimates the potential size and cost of the available DR resource for California’s three investor-owned utilities (IOUs), as the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) evaluates how to enhance the role of DR in meeting California’s resource planning needs and operational requirements. As the state forges a clean energy future, the contributions of wind and solar electricity from centralized and distributed generation will fundamentally change the power grid’s operational dynamics. This transition requires careful planning to ensure sufficient capacity is available with the right characteristics – flexibility and fast response – to meet reliability needs. Illustrated is a snapshot of how net load (the difference between demand and intermittent renewables) is expected to shift. Increasing contributions from renewable generation introduces steeper ramps and a shift, into the evening, of the hours that drive capacity needs. These hours of peak capacity need are indicated by the black dots on the plots. Ultimately this study quantifies the ability and the cost of using DR resources to help meet the capacity need at these forecasted critical hours in the state.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Economic Impacts Associated with Commercializing Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles in California: An Analysis of the California Road Map Using the JOBS H2 Model

Successful implementation of the California Road Map (the Road Map) for the introduction of hydrogen fueling stations to support a fleet of fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) will produce positive economic impacts. Those impacts include jobs created or retained to develop and operate hydrogen fueling stations, earnings by businesses and workers so employed, and economic output generated by the activities required to develop and operate the stations. This report summarizes an analysis of those impacts as conducted by Argonne National Laboratory and RCF Economic and Financial Consultants for the U.S. Department of Energy’s Fuel Cell Technologies Office (FCTO). The analysis assumes that the cost and technical performance of stations that received awards under the 2014 solicitation of the California Energy Commission are representative of all stations to be deployed under the Road Map (subject to scale effects) and that information supplied by applicants representing the majority of those stations is representative of all. The analysis further assumes that all stations will be of a design similar to those developed in the initial years of the rollout, with additional equipment added as modules to achieve the targeted station capacity specified in the Road Map.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Uncertainty in future projections of the North Pacific subtropical high and its implication for California winter precipitation change: FUTURE CALIFORNIA PRECIPITATION

This study examines future projections of sea level pressure change in the North Pacific and its impact on winter precipitation changes in California. The multi-model analysis, based on the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario, shows a robust sea-level pressure change in the late 21st century over the western North Pacific in which both the Aleutian Low and North Pacific Subtropical High (NPSH) shift poleward in concert with a widening of the Hadley Cell. This change is partly explained by a systematic increase of static stability in the subtropics. However, over the eastern North Pacific, the projected NPSH changes exhibit a substantial inter-model spread, resulting in uncertain projections of precipitation changes in California. This inter-model spread in the eastern North Pacific is associated with a Pacific Decadal Oscillation-like surface temperature change in the western North Pacific and the resulting meridional temperature gradient change. This study points to a major source of uncertainty for the response of winter precipitation to global warming over the West Coast of North America: atmosphere-ocean coupling in the North Pacific.

Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory↗

Demand Response Potential for California SubLAPs and Local Capacity Planning Areas: An Addendum to the 2025 California Demand Response Potential Study – Phase 2

The 2025 California Demand Response Potential Study Phase 2 Report1 was released on March 1, 2017, and described a range of pathways for Demand Response (DR) to support a clean, stable, and cost-effective electric grid for California. One of the Report’s key findings was that while there appears to be very low future value for untargeted DR Shed aimed at system-wide peak load conditions, there could be significant value for locally focused Shed resources. Although the dynamics of renewable capacity expansion have reduced the pressure to build new thermal generation in general, there are still transmission-constrained areas of the state where load growth needs to be managed with the addition of new local capacity, which could include DERs and/or DR. This Addendum to the Phase 2 Report presents a breakdown of the expected future “Local Shed” DR potential at a finer geographic resolution than what is available in the original report, with results summarized by SubLAP and Local Capacity Area (LCA).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Dual-Zone Solar Control Indoor Shade: Demonstration at the Ronald V. Dellums Federal Building and U.S. Courthouse, 1301 Clay Street, Oakland, California and the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Advanced Windows Testbed, Berkeley, California

Standard window shades are used to control sunlight, glare, window heat gains, and daylight. The challenge with conventional shades is that once the shades are lowered to reduce discomfort, daylight is reduced, which, in turn, increases the need for electric lighting. View is also obstructed, reducing the occupants’ connection to the outdoors. The strategy of subdividing the window wall and admitting daylight from above and controlling sunlight and view through the lower aperture can yield significant energy and peak demand savings over conventional shading systems, and improve the daylight quality of the indoor environment. This study evaluated a dual zone solar control (DZSC) shade with an upper, automated, horizontal, venetian blind with concave-up, matte white slats and a lower, manually operated, roller shade made of a transparent, reflective film. The automatic controls were designed to adjust the upper slat angle to maximize daylight to the room interior. The lower shade, when lowered, provided an unobstructed view to the outdoors. For the qualitative analysis, the DZSC shades were installed on windows in the southeast half of one floor in the Ronald V. Dellums Federal Building and U.S. Courthouse or hereafter referred to as the Oakland Federal Building (OFB) in Oakland, California. The position of the DZSC shades were observed and recorded periodically. Surveys were issued to occupants in the private offices and open plan workstations affected by the shades. For the quantitative analysis, the DZSC shades were installed in the south-facing windows of thermally isolated, fully instrumented, test chambers in the Advanced Windows Testbed at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) in Berkeley, California. Measurements of window heat loads, daylight illuminance and environmental conditions related to visual and thermal comfort were collected over a six-month, solstice-to-solstice period. The performance of the DZSC shade was compared to fabric roller shades and venetian blinds since these are the two most common types of shades used in both commercial and Federal buildings. Several DZSC design permutations were evaluated: 1) manual or automated control of the upper louver system (“man” or “auto”) and 2) tinted or silvered reflective film for the lower shade (“Gray-Gray (GG)” or “Gray-Silver (GS)”1). The automated, reflective shade (auto-GS) reduced dimmable fluorescent lighting energy use by 51% and window cooling load by 13-15% compared to a conventional fabric roller shade with dual-pane, spectrally selective, low-e windows during the summer period (winter period was not measured). Qualitative analysis revealed that the auto-GS shade was preferred by 80% of the survey respondents compared to the existing vertical fabric blinds with single-pane, tinted windows in the occupied building. Survey results indicated that visual discomfort was reduced and thermal discomfort was also reduced during warm or hot weather. Occupants expressed greater satisfaction with the unobstructed view. Installation and commissioning of the DZSC shades was fairly straightforward with some minor problems due to inadequate installation instructions and improper wiring. A few occupants expressed dissatisfaction with the automatic controls for the upper louvers due to visual discomfort, erroneous control, and motor noise.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗