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ICE Calculator 2: Final Report for Phase 1 and 2 of the National Initiative to Update the Interruption Cost Estimate (ICE) Calculator

ICE 2.0 Phase 2 Final Report In 2021, Berkeley Lab and Resource Innovations, Inc. launched the “ICE Calculator 2 Initiative” – a national study to refresh the underlying data and enhance the functionality of the ICE Calculator. The Initiative involves Berkeley Lab contracting with sponsoring utilities to administer identical, updated and comprehensive interruption cost surveys to statistically representative samples of each utility’s customers. Berkeley Lab and Resource Innovations then pool the survey results across the utilities and use them to update the analytical engines that drive the ICE Calculator. The ICE Calculator 2 Initiative is being conducted in phases. Each phase involves the administration of interruption cost surveys to the customers of sponsoring utilities, followed by an update to the ICE Calculator based on analysis of the pooled survey results. This report describes the activities and findings from Phase 1 and 2 of the ICE Calculator 2 Initiative. Phase 1 was sponsored by eight utilities: American Electric Power, Commonwealth Edison, Dominion Energy, Duke Energy, DTE Electric, Exelon, National Grid, and Puget Sound Energy. Phase 2 was sponsored by six utilities: Empire District Electric Company, Evergy Missouri, Pacific Gas & Electric, San Diego Gas & Electric, Southern California Edison, and Union Electric. Phase 1 and 2 involved 15 customer interruption cost survey activities representing a total of 30 electricity distribution service territories. ICE Calculator Version 2.0 and 2.2 Comparison This memorandum describes–at a high-level–the improvements in interruption cost estimates for the version 2.2 of the ICE Calculator (released February 2026) compared to version 2.0 (released in April 2025). Version 2.2 of the ICE Calculator corresponds to Phase 2 of the initiative, while version 2.0 corresponds to Phase 1. The improvements in version 2.2 result from both a significant increase in the number of customer responses that have been collected and the identification of seven additional factors that help estimate customer interruption costs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Airplane stability calculations with a card programmable pocket calculator

Programs are presented for calculating airplane stability characteristics with a card programmable pocket calculator. These calculations include eigenvalues of the characteristic equations of lateral and longitudinal motion as well as stability parameters such as the time to damp to one-half amplitude or the damping ratio. The effects of wind shear are included. Background information and the equations programmed are given. The programs are written for the International System of Units, the dimensional form of the stability derivatives, and stability axes. In addition to programs for stability calculations, an unusual and short program is included for the Euler transformation of coordinates used in airplane motions. The programs have been written for a Hewlett Packard HP-67 calculator. However, the use of this calculator does not constitute an endorsement of the product by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

Sherman, W. L.

GPR_calculator: An on-the-fly surrogate model to accelerate massive nudged elastic band calculations

We present GPR_calculator, a package based on Python and C++ programming languages to build an on-the-fly surrogate model using Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) to approximate computationally expensive electronic structure calculations. The key idea is to dynamically train a GPR model during the simulation that can accurately predict energies and forces with uncertainty quantification. When the uncertainty is high, the costly electronic structure calculation is performed to obtain the ground truth data, which is then used to update the GPR model. To illustrate the effectiveness of GPR_calculator, we demonstrate its application in Nudged Elastic Band (NEB) simulations of surface diffusion and reactions, achieving 3-10 times acceleration compared to pure ab initio calculations. The source code is available at https://github.com/MaterSim/GPR_calculator.

Gaussian process regression

ICE Calculator 2.0: Final Report for Phase 1 of the National Initiative to Update the Interruption Cost Estimate (ICE) Calculator

In 2021, Berkeley Lab and Resource Innovations, Inc. launched the “ICE 2.0 Initiative” – a national study to refresh the underlying data and enhance the functionality of the ICE Calculator. The Initiative involves Berkeley Lab contracting with sponsoring utilities to administer identical, updated and comprehensive interruption cost surveys to statistically representative samples of each utility’s customers. Berkeley Lab and Resource Innovations then pool the survey results across the utilities and use them to update the analytical engines that drive the ICE Calculator. The ICE 2.0 Initiative is being conducted in phases. Each phase involves the administration of interruption cost surveys to the customers of sponsoring utilities, followed by an update to the ICE Calculator based on analysis of the pooled survey results. This report describes the activities and findings from Phase 1 of the ICE 2.0 Initiative. Phase 1 was sponsored by eight utilities: American Electric Power, Commonwealth Edison, Dominion Energy, Duke Energy, DTE Electric, Exelon, National Grid, and Puget Sound Energy. Phase 1 involved 11 customer interruption cost survey activities representing a total of 24 electricity distribution service territories, 23 of them located in the Eastern and Midwestern regions of the U.S. and one located in the Pacific Northwest. ICE 2.0 vs. 1.0 Comparison This memorandum compares customer power interruption costs estimated using the recently updated Interruption Cost Estimate (ICE) Calculator (“ICE 2.0”) to the original ICE Calculator (“ICE 1.0”). ICE 1.0 was developed in 2009 based on 15 independent power interruption cost surveys conducted by 10 electric utilities between 1989 and 2012. ICE 2.0 was developed in 2025 through a national initiative based on a consistent set of power interruption cost surveys and 11 surveying efforts conducted across 24 electric utility service territories between 2022 and 2024.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI

On the Calculation of Uncertainty Statistics with Error Bounds for CFD Calculations Containing Random Parameters and Fields

This chapter discusses the ongoing development of combined uncertainty and error bound estimates for computational fluid dynamics (CFD) calculations subject to imposed random parameters and random fields. An objective of this work is the construction of computable error bound formulas for output uncertainty statistics that guide CFD practitioners in systematically determining how accurately CFD realizations should be approximated and how accurately uncertainty statistics should be approximated for output quantities of interest. Formal error bounds formulas for moment statistics that properly account for the presence of numerical errors in CFD calculations and numerical quadrature errors in the calculation of moment statistics have been previously presented in [8]. In this past work, hierarchical node-nested dense and sparse tensor product quadratures are used to calculate moment statistics integrals. In the present work, a framework has been developed that exploits the hierarchical structure of these quadratures in order to simplify the calculation of an estimate of the quadrature error needed in error bound formulas. When signed estimates of realization error are available, this signed error may also be used to estimate output quantity of interest probability densities as a means to assess the impact of realization error on these density estimates. Numerical results are presented for CFD problems with uncertainty to demonstrate the capabilities of this framework.

Uncertainty

Numerical procedures for the calculation of the stresses in monocoques III : calculation of the bending moments in fuselage frames

This report deals with the calculation of the bending moments in and the distortions of fuselage rings upon which known concentrated and distributed loads are acting. In the procedure suggested, the ring is divided into a number of beams each having a constant radius of curvature. The forces and moments caused in the end sections of the beams by individual unit displacements of the end sections are listed in a table designated as the operations table in conformity with Southwell's nomenclature. The operations table and the external loads are equivalent to a set of linear equations. For their solution the following three procedures are presented: 1) Southwell's method of systematic relaxations. This is a step-by-step approximation procedure guided by the physical interpretation of the changes in the values of the unknown. 2) The growing unit procedure in which the individual beams are combined successively into beams of increasing length until finally the entire ring becomes a single beam. In each step of the procedure a set of not more than three simultaneous linear equations is solved. 3) Solution of the entire set of simultaneous equations by the methods of the matrix calculus. In order to demonstrate the manner in which the calculations may be carried out, the following numerical examples are worked out: 1) Curved beam with both its end sections rigidly fixed. The load is a concentrated force. 2) Egg-shape ring with symmetric concentrated loads. 3) Circular ring with antisymmetric concentrated loads and shear flow (torsion of the fuselage). 4) Same with V-braces incorporated in the ring. 5) Egg-shape ring with antisymmetric concentrated loads and shear flow (torsion of the fuselage). 6) Same with V-braces incorporated in the ring. The results of these calculations are checked, whenever possible, by calculations carried out according to known methods of analysis. The agreement is found to be good. The amount of work necessary for the solution of ring problems by the methods described in the present report is practically independent of the degree of redundancy of the structure. For this reason the methods are recommended for use particularly in problems of rings having one or more internal bracing elements.

LOADS - FUSELAGES

Enhancing the accuracy of XPS calculations: Exploring hybrid basis set schemes for CVS-EOMIP-CCSD calculations

Reliable computational methodologies and basis sets for modeling x-ray spectra are essential for extracting and interpreting electronic and structural information from experimental x-ray spectra. In particular, the trade-off between numerical accuracy and computational cost due to the size of the basis set is a major challenge, since molecular orbitals undergo extreme relaxation in the core-hole state. To gain clarity on the changes in electronic structure induced by the formation of a core-hole, the use of sufficiently flexible basis for expanding the orbitals, particularly for the core region, has been shown to be essential. This work focuses on the refinement of core-hole ionized state calculations using the equation-of-motion coupled cluster family of methods through an extensive analysis on the effectiveness of “hybrid” and mixed basis sets. In this investigation, we utilize the CVS-EOMIP-CCSD method in combination and construct hybrid basis sets piecewise from readily available Dunning’s correlation consistent basis sets in order to calculate x-ray ionization energies (IEs) for a set of small gas phase molecules. Our results provide insights into the impact of basis sets on the CVS-EOMIP-CCSD calculations of K-edge IEs of first-row p-block elements. Furthermore, these insights enable us to understand more about the basis set dependence of the core IEs computed and allow us to establish a protocol for deriving reliable and cost-effective theoretical estimates for computing IEs of small molecules containing such elements.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH

Calculation of three-dimensional compressible laminar and turbulent boundary layers. Calculation of three-dimensional compressible boundary layers on arbitrary wings

A very general method for calculating compressible three-dimensional laminar and turbulent boundary layers on arbitrary wings is described. The method utilizes a nonorthogonal coordinate system for the boundary-layer calculations and includes a geometry package that represents the wing analytically. In the calculations all the geometric parameters of the coordinate system are accounted for. The Reynolds shear-stress terms are modeled by an eddy-viscosity formulation developed by Cebeci. The governing equations are solved by a very efficient two-point finite-difference method used earlier by Keller and Cebeci for two-dimensional flows and later by Cebeci for three-dimensional flows.

Cebeci, T.

Description of a computer program to calculate reacting supersonic internal flow fields with shock waves using viscous characteristics: Program manual and sample calculations

A computer program for calculating internal supersonic flow fields with chemical reactions and shock waves typical of supersonic combustion chambers with either wall or mid-stream injectors is described. The usefulness and limitations of the program are indicated. The program manual and listing are presented along with a sample calculation.

Cavalleri, R. J.

The self-consistent calculation of pseudo-molecule energy levels, construction of energy level correlation diagrams and an automated computation system for SCF-X(Alpha)-SW calculations

The self consistent calculation of the electronic energy levels of noble gas pseudomolecules formed when a metal surface is bombarded by noble gas ions is discussed along with the construction of energy level correlation diagrams as a function of interatomic spacing. The self consistent field x alpha scattered wave (SCF-Xalpha-SW) method is utilized. Preliminary results on the Ne-Mg system are given. An interactive x alpha programming system, implemented on the LeRC IBM 370 computer, is described in detail. This automated system makes use of special PROCDEFS (procedure definitions) to minimize the data to be entered manually at a remote terminal. Listings of the special PROCDEFS and of typical input data are given.

Schlosser, H.

The multi-zone calculation of turbomachinery flows. II - The multi-zone calculation of the turbulent, two-specie flow through the SSME HPFTP first and second stage cavities

A multi-zone Navier-Stokes methodology to calculate the two-specie flow through the first and second stage cooling cavities of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) high pressure fuel turbopump (HPFTP) is developed. A simplified two-component fluid formulation is used to model the interaction of coolant and hot gas. Johnston's secant approximation is used to define an appropriate near wall velocity for use in a three-dimensional law of the wall. The basic Navier-Stokes algorithm used is a finite-volume, predictor-corrector algorithm which uses a pressure correction technique. A multi-zone method is used to partition each cavity into easily handled subdomains. The results show that coolant flow is pumped up the turbine wheel for both cavities, creating a region of large temperature gradients on the turbine shank.

Williams, M.

Calculation of infrared limb emission by ozone in the terrestrial middle atmosphere. I - Source functions. II - Emission calculations

The departure from LTE in the vibration-rotation bands of ozone in the middle atmosphere is analyzed using two statistical equilibrium models: the energy gap model and the simplified single model. The diurnal variations in the fundamental band source functions nu(1) and nu(3) is determined by the diurnal change in the rate of ozone photolysis by the solar radiation. Source functions are presented for the vibration-rotation bands of ozone that emit in the 9-11-micron spectral interval, over an altitude range of 1-110 km. Results are also reported of the evaluation of the radiative transfer equation incorporating these source functions and energy level populations. Using the results of the two statistical equilibrium models, calculations are carried out of the spectrally integrated limb radiance for the limb viewing geometry for daytime conditions. Results indicate that the interpretation of the measurements of spectrally integrated limb radiance from ozone will be greatly complicated by the breakdown of LTE in the vibration-rotational bands of ozone.

Mlynczak, Martin G.