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Comparison of Surface Fluxes Derived from CYGNSS and Simulated by WRF Model: An MJO Case Study

This study focuses on ocean surface fluxes, mainly the latent heat flux, and their impact on MJO propagation and associated precipitation structures over the Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent. The Coupled-Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) model is used to simulate two MJO events during the 2017-2018 season: the December 10 - January 20, 2017 case, which maintained its strong precipitation signal over the Maritime Continent, and the March 1 - 20, 2018 case, which was weaker and did not propagate through the Maritime Continent. Both simulated MJO events show positive biases in surface rainfall compared with GPM IMERG data. During the MJO suppressed phase, the simulations rain more often than the observations. During the active phase, the westward propagating precipitation structures are more organized and much stronger compared with the observations, sometimes forming westward propagating cyclones that weakened the eastward precipitation signals. Two aspects of the surface flux interactions are investigated: the impact of the domain mean surface fluxes, and the impact of storm scale circulations and their interactions with local surface fluxes. Both aspects affect water vapor budget, atmosphere instability and mean flow, through which convection initiation, organization, and propagation are influenced. Model sensitivity tests with different radiation, microphysics, PBL schemes and nudging schemes indicate that in the control simulations, higher SST and surface fluxes, especially during the suppressed period, are the main reason of rainfall overestimation compared with IMERG data. The strong westward propagating signals are caused by both increased atmosphere instability and reduced mean wind shear. Unfortunately, the small differences in mean SST and surface fluxes between different model sensitivity tests are all within the satellite observation error margin, and cannot be directly corroborated by observations. One of the advantages of CYGNSS satellites is that they observe ocean surface wind and heat fluxes underneath strong rainfall events such as the convective systems associated with MJO active phases. Currently we are comparing CYGNSS level 2 surface fluxes retrievals and the model simulations in order to better understand the second aspect of the MJO and surface fluxes interactions, and how this affects MJO strengths and propagations. The interactive atmosphere-ocean-wave model also provides cases that directly comparing satellite observables (the bistatic radar cross section) and the model simulations (through CYGNSS satellite simulator). These discrepancies are more prominent in coupled ocean simulations, mainly due to higher SST and enhanced surface fluxes.

Li, Xiaowen↗

Exploring the Utility of the Planned CYGNSS Mission for Investigating the Initiation and Development of the Madden-Julian Oscillation

CYGNSS is a planned constellation consisting of multiple micro-satellites that leverage the Global Positioning System (GPS) to provide rapidly updated, high resolution (approx. 15-50 km, approx. 4 h) surface wind speeds (via bi-static scatterometry) over the tropical oceans in any weather condition, including heavy rainfall. The approach of the work to be presented at this conference is to utilize a limited-domain, cloud-system resolving model (Weather Research and Forecasting or WRF) and its attendant data assimilation scheme (Three-Dimensional Variational Assimilation or 3DVAR) to investigate the utility of the CYGNSS mission for helping characterize key convectiveto- mesoscale processes - such as surface evaporation, moisture advection and convergence, and upscale development of precipitation systems - that help drive the initiation and development of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) in the equatorial Indian Ocean. The proposed work will focus on three scientific objectives. Objective 1 is to produce a high-resolution surface wind dataset resolution (approx. 0.5 h, approx. 1-4 km) for multiple MJO onsets using WRF-assimilated winds and other data from the DYNAmics of the MJO (DYNAMO) field campaign, which took place during October 2011 - March 2012. Objective 2 is to study the variability of surface winds during MJO onsets at temporal and spatial scales of finer resolution than future CYGNSS data. The goal is to understand how sub-CYGNSS-resolution processes will shape the observations made by the satellite constellation. Objective 3 is to ingest simulated CYGNSS data into the WRF model in order to perform observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs). These will be used to test and quantify the potential beneficial effects provided by CYGNSS, particularly for characterizing the physical processes driving convective organization and upscale development during the initiation and development of the MJO. The proposed research is ideal for answering important questions about the CYGNSS mission, such as the representativeness of surface wind retrievals in the context of the complex airflow processes that occur during heavy precipitation, as well as the tradeoffs in retrieval accuracy that result from finer spatial resolution of the CYGNSS winds versus increased errors/noisiness in those data. Research plans and initial progress toward these objectives will be presented.

Lang, Timothy↗

A High-Resolution Merged Wind Dataset for DYNAMO: Progress and Future Plans

In order to support research on optimal data assimilation methods for the Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS), launching in 2016, work has been ongoing to produce a high‐resolution merged wind dataset for the Dynamics of the Madden Julian Oscillation (DYNAMO) field campaign, which took place during late 2011/early 2012. The winds are produced by assimilating DYNAMO observations into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) three‐dimensional variational (3DVAR) system. Data sources from the DYNAMO campaign include the upper‐air sounding network, radial velocities from the radar network, vector winds from the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) and Oceansat‐2 Scatterometer (OSCAT) satellite instruments, the NOAA High Resolution Doppler Lidar (HRDL), and several others. In order the prep them for 3DVAR, significant additional quality control work is being done for the currently available TOGA and SMART‐R radar datasets, including automatically dealiasing radial velocities and correcting for intermittent TOGA antenna azimuth angle errors. The assimilated winds are being made available as model output fields from WRF on two separate grids with different horizontal resolutions ‐ a 3‐km grid focusing on the main DYNAMO quadrilateral (i.e., Gan Island, the R/V Revelle, the R/V Mirai, and Diego Garcia), and a 1‐km grid focusing on the Revelle. The wind dataset is focused on three separate approximately 2‐week periods during the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) onsets that occurred in October, November, and December 2011. Work is ongoing to convert the 10‐m surface winds from these model fields to simulated CYGNSS observations using the CYGNSS End‐To‐End Simulator (E2ES), and these simulated satellite observations are being compared to radar observations of DYNAMO precipitation systems to document the anticipated ability of CYGNSS to provide information on the relationships between surface winds and oceanic precipitation at the mesoscale level. This research will improve our understanding of the future utility of CYGNSS for documenting key MJO processes.

Lang, Timothy J.↗