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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

SMART – A Comprehensive Research and Development Program to Demonstrate Application of Machine Learning for Supporting CCS Deployment

Presentation material for a paper presented at the GHGT-17 conference, Calgary, Canada, October 20-24, 2024. The objective of the US Department of Energy’s SMART Initiative, i.e., Science-informed Machine Learning (ML) for Accelerating Real-Time Decisions in Subsurface Applications, is to showcase how the utilization of ML can significantly improve efficiency and effectiveness of field-scale commercial carbon storage operations. This paper will present the results from the current phase of SMART (field deployment) for demonstrating the applicability of ML-based tools and workflows for: (a) virtual learning during the pre-injection permitting phase, (b) advanced storage reservoir imaging to better characterize fractures and faults, and (c) dynamic storage reservoir modelling and optimization to inform operational decision making and visualization of system evolution.

CO2 geologic storage↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning-Driven Quantification of CO2 Plume Dynamics at Illinois Basin Decatur Project Sites Using Microseismic Data

This study utilizes machine learning to quantify CO2 plume extents by analyzing microseismic data from the Illinois Basin Decatur Project (IBDP). Leveraging a unique dataset of well logs, microseismic records, and CO2 injection metrics, this work aims to predict the temporal evolution of subsurface CO2 saturation plumes. The findings illustrate that machine learning can predict plume dynamics, revealing vertical clustering of microseismic events over distinct time periods within certain proximities to the injection well, consistent with an invasion percolation model. The buoyant CO2 plume partially trapped within sandstone intervals periodically breaches localized barriers or baffles, which act as leaky seals and impede vertical migration until buoyancy overcomes gravity and capillary forces, leading to breakthroughs along vertical zones of weakness. Between different unsupervised clustering techniques, K-Means and DBSCAN were applied and analyzed in detail, where K-means outperformed DBSCAN in this specific study by indicating the combination of the highest Silhouette Score and the lowest Davies–Bouldin Index. The predictive capability of machine learning models in quantifying CO2 saturation plume extension is significant for real-time monitoring and management of CO2 sequestration sites. The models exhibit high accuracy, validated against physical models and injection data from the IBDP, reinforcing the viability of CO2 geological sequestration as a climate change mitigation strategy and enhancing advanced tools for safe management of these operations.

Iyegbekedo, Ikponmwosa↗
NASA NTRS1984

Development of a global model for atmospheric backscatter at CO2 wavelengths

The effect of aerosol microphysical processes on the backscatter from an aerosol plume undergoing long-range atmospheric transport was studied. A numerical model which examines the effects of coagulation and sedimentation on an aerosol size distribution is under development and the initial results for a single homogeneous layer were obtained. Use was made of the SAGE/SAM II data set to study the global variation of aerosol concentration and, hence, to predict the variation of Beta sub CO2. Computer programs were written to determine the mean, median, and the probability distribution of the measured aerosol extinction as a function of altitude, latitude and geographical conditions. The first data sets analyzed in this way are under study. Data was used to study aerosol behavior over the U.S.A. and the Pacific Ocean.

Kent, G. S.↗
DOE OSTI2025

FECM/NETL Offshore CO2 Saline Storage Cost Model

The FECM/NETL Offshore CO2 Saline Storage Cost Model (CO2_S_COM_Offshore) estimates costs for a CO2 storage project in an offshore saline formation or reservoir. It is applicable for storage projects located on the Outer Continental Shelf of the Gulf of America. The purpose is to model the costs associated with a project, using simplified geo-engineering equations to calculate reservoir values needed to determine costs (such as CO2 plume area and number of injection wells). To use the model, change any of the inputs, which are always in orange cells, to the values you desire. Although there are numerous values that can be changed, the values expected to be of most interest have input cells on the 'Key_Inputs' sheet. Last update: 5/2/2025; Version 1.1 corrects bug in reservoir thickness calculations.

Carbon storage↗
DOE OSTI2024

NORTH DAKOTA CARBONSAFE PHASE III: SITE CHARACTERIZATION AND PERMITTING OF GEOLOGIC STORAGE OF CARBON DIOXIDE

The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC), in partnership with Minnkota Power Cooperative Inc. (Minnkota), SLB, and Computer Modelling Group Ltd. (CMG), supported wide-scale deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS) as part of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory Carbon Storage Assurance Facility Enterprise (CarbonSAFE) Initiative Phase III. This phase included the acquisition, analysis, and development of information to fully characterize two storage complexes to demonstrate viable storage resources for commercial volumes of CO2 (defined by DOE as a minimum of 50 million tonnes [MMt] of CO2 within a 30-year period) (National Energy Technology Laboratory, 2024). Phase III also involved the preparation, submission, and approval of North Dakota underground injection control (UIC) Class VI storage facility permits (SFPs)—required precursors to applications for Class VI injection well permits. The presumed viability of commercial-scale CCS, situated adjacent to Minnkota’s Milton R. Young Station (MRYS), is validated by Minnkota’s continued pursuit of Project Tundra—an initiative to build the world’s largest lignite-based CCS project in central North Dakota (www.projecttundrand.com). Project Tundra comprises two scopes of work, Tundra Capture (installation of postcombustion CO2 capture at MRYS) and Tundra SGS (secure geologic storage). The efforts of North Dakota CarbonSAFE Phase III, Site Characterization and Permitting, supported Tundra SGS. Extensive site-specific characterization activities included a successful multimeasurement geophysical approach and drilling a stratigraphic test well (J-ROC 1, subsequently renamed Liberty-1) adjacent to MRYS. Core collection and analyses, downhole testing and fluid sampling, and geophysical logging were performed on J-ROC 1 and on a nearby stratigraphic test well (known as J-LOC 1), which was drilled, cored, and tested under a complementary project funded by the North Dakota Lignite Research Program. The injection tests performed on J-LOC 1 positively impacted the CarbonSAFE project, resulting in fewer proposed injection wells and significant construction, operations, and monitoring cost savings. The characterization data collected and analyses performed were integrated into geologic models, and successive numerical simulations were run to determine CO2 plume extent and subsurface pressure buildup associated with the planned CO2 injection rate of nearly 4 MMt per year. The latter doubles the CarbonSAFE Initiative goal with an estimated 100 MMt of CO2 stored in 20 years. Application of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA’s) method for estimating the Class VI Rule area of review (AOR) to the overpressurized Broom Creek Formation inspired an alternative method of calculation, called risk-based AOR delineation. This peer-reviewed method was applied for the first time during the storage facility-permitting process. The two SFP applications submitted in 2021 successfully resulted in North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC) orders in 2022 authorizing the creation of the storage facility areas and amalgamation of pore space as well as establishing financial responsibility requirements. After approval of the SFPs, Minnkota filed in 2022 applications for permits to reenter the J-ROC 1 well and to drill two new wells—all with the intended purpose to become Class VI injection wells. To establish eligibility under the Internal Revenue Code for Section 45Q tax incentives, a monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) plan was prepared and submitted by Minnkota to EPA in 2022, resulting in the first such plan approved in North Dakota. Also in 2022, under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), Minnkota prepared and submitted an environmental information volume (EIV) describing the proposed CCS project and associated potential environmental impacts. Based on the EIV, DOE determined that the proposed construction project required an environmental assessment, and Minnkota submitted the first draft in 2023 and a revised draft in 2024. Both submissions were followed by a public comment period. Subsequently, DOE issued a finding of no significant impact (FONSI) on September 13, 2024. A successful outreach program, strongly based in the production, presentation, and dissemination of informational material, fostered an environment to aid stakeholders in making informed decisions regarding the planned project. Opportunities for public input were provided at various steps along the way, including at county planning and zoning meetings, before and during the SFP administrative hearing, and during environmental assessment public comment periods. In addition, land/pore space owners and mineral owners had various points of contact, including granting access rights, securing pore space leasing, and mineral owner notifications. Based upon the successful storage facility permitting issued by NDIC, approval of the MRV plan by EPA, and receipt of a FONSI under the NEPA, Minnkota is continuing its pursuit of Project Tundra. In December 2023, the Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations under its Carbon Capture Demonstrations Projects Program announced funding for the capture system (Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations, 2023) and a proposal for CarbonSAFE Phase IV: Construction funding was submitted in March 2024 for the storage project. A go/no-go decision to proceed with construction and operations in the Broom Creek Formation is anticipated in 2024. References National Energy Technology Laboratory, CarbonSafe Initiative, https://netl.doe.gov/carbon-management/carbon-storage/carbonsafe (accessed August 2024). Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations, 2023, OCED selects three projects in CA, ND, and TX to reduce harmful carbon pollution, create new economic opportunities, and advance carbon reducing technologies, December, www.energy.gov/oced/articles/oced-selects-three-projects-ca-nd-and-tx-reduce-harmful-carbon-pollution-create-new (accessed August 2024).

Peck, Wesley↗
NASA NTRS2019

Exploiting OMI NO2 Satellite Observations to Infer Fossil-fuel CO2 Emissions from U.S. Megacities

Fossil-fuel CO2 emissions and their trends in eight U.S. megacities during 2006–2017 are inferred by combining satellite-derived NOX emissions with bottom-up city-specific NOX-to-CO2 emission ratios. A statistical model is fit to a collection NO2 plumes observed from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), and is used to calculate top-down NOX emissions. Decreases in OMI-derived NOX emissions are observed across the eight cities from 2006 to 2017 (−17% in Miami to −58% in Los Angeles), and are generally consistent with long-term trends of bottom-up inventories (−25% in Miami to −49% in Los Angeles), but there are some interannual discrepancies. City-specific NOX-to-CO2 emission ratios, used to calculate inferred CO2, are estimated through annual bottom-up inventories of NOX and CO2 emissions disaggregated to 1 × 1 km2 resolution. Over the study period, NOX-to-CO2 emission ratios have decreased by ~40% nationwide (−24% to −51% for our studied cities), which is attributed to a faster reduction in NOX when compared to CO2 due to policy regulations and fuel type shifts. Combining top-down NOX emissions and bottom-up NOX-to-CO2 emission ratios, annual fossil-fuel CO2 emissions are derived. Inferred OMI-based top-down CO2 emissions trends vary between +7% in Dallas to −31% in Phoenix. For 2017, we report annual fossil-fuel CO2 emissions to be: Los Angeles 113 ± 49 Tg/yr; New York City 144 ± 62 Tg/yr; and Chicago 55 ± 24 Tg/yr. A study in the Los Angeles area, using independent methods, reported a 2013–2016 average CO2 emissions rate of 104 Tg/yr and 120 Tg/yr, which suggests that the CO2 emissions from our method are in good agreement with other studies' top-down estimates. We anticipate future remote sensing instruments – with better spatial and temporal resolution – will better constrain the NOX-to-CO2 ratio and reduce the uncertainty in our method.

Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI)↗
NASA NTRS1984

Development of a global model for atmospheric backscatter at CO2 wavelengths

Work on the following tasks is reported briefly: (1) to investigate the effect of aerosol microphysical processes, occurring in an aerosol plume which undergoes transport in the atmosphere, on its beta sub CO2 value and (2) to examine experimentally measured size distributions for the free troposphere, fit bimodal log-normal models with different retractive indices for the two modes, and calculate beta sub CO2.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2002

Noachian Martian Volcanics a Water Source

H2O was supplied to the Noachian atmosphere by eruptions, or in association with large impacts. Most water outgassed into an extremely cold atmosphere, and condensate deposits were inevitable. High heat flow could lead to subglacial melting only if ice thicknesses were greater than 500-1000m, which is extremely unlikely. Subareal melting and flow is contingent upon temperatures periodically exceeding 273 K, and retarding evaporative loss of the flow. In still air, evaporation into a dry atmosphere is in the free convection regime, and a stream with 2 cu m/s discharge, flowing 1 m/s could persist for hundreds of days and cover distances greater than any valley reach. The zero-wind-shear condition is considered implausible however. We investigate the possibility that evaporation rates were suppressed because the atmosphere was regionally charged with H2O as it moved over snow/ice fields. Our initial concern is precipitation from volcanic plumes. A Kilauea-style eruption on the martian surface would cover a 10km circular deposit with 10cm of H2O, if all H2O could be precipitated near the vent. The characteristics of the eruption at the vent, (vent size, temperature, H2O content, etc.) are independent of the environmental conditions. The subsequent behavior of the plume, including precipitation of ash and H2O condensate depends strongly on the environment. Hence, the proximal fate of volcanic H2O is amenable to treatment in a model. A simple bulk thermodynamic model of the rise of an H2O plume through a stably stratified CO2 atmosphere, with only adiabatic cooling, produces runaway plume rise. A more complex treatment includes the effects of latent heat release, wind shear along the plume, divergence of ash and H2O, and will yield more realistic estimates of H2O transport in eruptive plumes. Results of these simulations will be presented.

Zent, A. P.↗
NASA NTRS2018

The Origin of Titan's External Oxygen: Further Constraints from ALMA Upper Limits on CS and CH2NH

Titan's atmospheric inventory of oxygen compounds (H2O, CO2, CO) are thought to result from photochemistry acting on externally supplied oxygen species (O+, OH, H2O). These species potentially originate from two main sources: (1) cryogenic plumes from the active moon Enceladus and (2) micrometeoroid ablation. Enceladus is already suspected to be the major O+ source, which is required for CO creation. However, photochemical models also require H2O and OH influx to reproduce observed quantities of CO2 and H2O. Here, we exploit sulphur as a tracer to investigate the oxygen source because it has very different relative abundances in micrometeorites (S/O approx. 10(exp -2) and Enceladus' plumes (S/O approx. 10(exp -5). Photochemical models predict most sulphur is converted to CS in the upper atmosphere, so we use Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) observations at approx. 340 GHz to search for CS emission. We determined stringent CS 3 sigma stratospheric upper limits of 0.0074 ppb (uniform above 100 km) and 0.0256 ppb (uniform above 200 km). These upper limits are not quite stringent enough to distinguish between Enceladus and micrometeorite sources at the 3 sigma level and a contribution from micrometeorites cannot be ruled out, especially if external flux is toward the lower end of current estimates. Only the high flux micrometeorite source model of Hickson et al. can be rejected at 3 sigma. We determined a 3 sigma stratospheric upper limit for CH2NH of 0.35 ppb, which suggests cosmic rays may have a smaller influence in the lower stratosphere than predicted by some photochemical models. Disk-averaged C3H4 and C2H5CN profiles were determined and are consistent with previous ALMA and Cassini/CIRS measurements.

Teanby, N.A.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Experimental evaluation of resistojet thruster plume shields

The exhaust of an engineering model resistojet has been investigated using rotary pitot probes and a rotary quartz crystal microbalance. The resistojet operated on CO2 propellant at a mass flow rate of 0.29 g/sec in both heated and unheated flows. Measurements of local flow angles in the near field of a conical plume shield indicated that the shield was not wholly effective in confining the flow to the region upstream of its exit plane. However, the absolute levels of the measured mass flux into the backflow region were very low, on the order of 7 x 10 to the -7 power g/sqcm/sec or less. The use of a circualr disk at the exit plane of the existing conical shield showed some benefit in decreasing the amount of backflow by a factor of two. Lastly, a detached shield placed upstream of the resistojet exit plane demonstrated a small degree of local shielding for the region directly behind it.

Carney, Lynnette M.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Experimental evaluation of resistojet thruster plume shields

The exhaust of an engineering model resistojet has been investigated using rotary pitot probes and a rotary quartz crystal microbalance. The resistojet operated on CO2 propellant at a mass flow rate of 0.29 g/sec in both heated and unheated flows. Measurements of local flow angles in the near field of a conical plume shield indicated that the shield was not wholly effective in confining the flow to the region upstream of its exit plane. However, the absolute levels of the measured mass flux into the backflow region were very low, on the order of 7 x 10 to the -7 power g/sq cm/sec or less. The use of a circular disk at the exit plane of the existing conical shield showed some benefit in decreasing the amount of backflow by a factor of two. Lastly, a detached shield placed upstream of the resistojet exit plane demonstrated a small degree of local shielding for the region directly behind it.

Carney, Lynnette M.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Plume flowfield analysis of the shuttle primary Reaction Control System (RCS) rocket engine

A solution was generated for the physical properties of the Shuttle RCS 4000 N (900 lb) rocket engine exhaust plume flowfield. The modeled exhaust gas consists of the five most abundant molecular species, H2, N2, H2O, CO, and CO2. The solution is for a bare RCS engine firing into a vacuum; the only additional hardware surface in the flowfield is a cylinder (=engine mount) which coincides with the nozzle lip outer corner at X = 0, extends to the flowfield outer boundary at X = -137 m and is coaxial with the negative symmetry axis. Continuum gas dynamic methods and the Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method were combined in an iterative procedure to produce a selfconsistent solution. Continuum methods were used in the RCS nozzle and in the plume as far as the P = 0.03 breakdown contour; the DSMC method was used downstream of this continuum flow boundary. The DSMC flowfield extends beyond 100 m from the nozzle exit and thus the solution includes the farfield flow properties, but substantial information is developed on lip flow dynamics and thus results are also presented for the flow properties in the vicinity of the nozzle lip.

Hueser, J. E.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Take-off Engine Particle Emission Indices for In-Service Aircraft at Los Angeles International Airport

We present ground‐based, advected aircraft engine emissions from flights taking off at Los Angeles International Airport. 275 discrete engine take‐off plumes were observed on 18 and 25 May 2014 at a distance of 400 m downwind of the runway. CO2 measurements are used to convert the aerosol data into plume‐average emissions indices that are suitable for modelling aircraft emissions. Total and non‐volatile particle number EIs are of order 1016‐1017 kg‐1 and 1014‐1016 kg‐1, respectively. Black‐carbon‐equivalent particle mass EIs vary between 175‐941 mg kg‐1 (except for the GE GEnx engines at 46 mg kg‐1). Aircraft tail numbers recorded for each take‐off event are used to incorporate aircraft‐ and engine‐specific parameters into the data set. Data acquisition and processing follow standard methods for quality assurance. A unique aspect of the data set is the mapping of aerosol concentration time series to integrated plume EIs, aircraft and engine specifications, and manufacturer‐reported engine emissions certifications. The integrated data enable future studies seeking to understand and model aircraft emissions and their impact on air quality.

Richard H Moore↗
NASA NTRS1991

The mid-Cretaceous super plume, carbon dioxide, and global warming

Carbon-dioxide releases associated with a mid-Cretaceous super plume and the emplacement of the Ontong-Java Plateau have been suggested as a principal cause of the mid-Cretaceous global warming. A carbonate-silicate cycle model is developed to quantify the possible climatic effects of these CO2 releases, utilizing four different formulations for the rate of silicate-rock weathering as a function of atmospheric CO2. CO2 emissions resulting from super-plume tectonics could have produced atmospheric CO2 levels from 3.7 to 14.7 times the modern preindustrial value of 285 ppm. Based on the temperature sensitivity to CO2 increases used in the weathering-rate formulations, this would cause a global warming of from 2.8 to 7.7 C over today's glogal mean temperature. Altered continental positions and higher sea level may have been contributed about 4.8 C to mid-Cretaceous warming. Thus, the combined effects of paleogeographic changes and super-plume related CO2 emissions could be in the range of 7.6 to 12.5 C, within the 6 to 14 C range previously estimated for mid-Cretaceous warming. CO2 releases from oceanic plateaus alone are unlikely to have been directly responsible for more than 20 percent of the mid-Cretaceous increase in atmospheric CO2.

Caldeira, Ken↗
NASA NTRS1977

Thermal radiation model for solid rocket booster plumes

The Monte Carlo method is used to model the thermal radiation field of the plumes for the dual solid rocket boosters astride the Space Shuttle launch configuration. The model accounts for axial and radial variations in radiative properties of the plumes. The plumes are considered to be composed of a dispersion of aluminum oxide (Al2O3) particles immersed in the gaseous products of combustion. The principal emitting gases are taken to be CO, CO2, H2O, and HCl. The thermal model is based on local thermodynamic equilibrium. Scattering of radiant energy by Al2O3 particles may be treated as isotropic or anisotropic. Sample radiant heating rates to the base region of the Space Shuttle are shown. Space Shuttle geometries are simulated as combinations of quadric surfaces.

Watson, G. H.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Bolide impacts and the oxidation state of carbon in the earth's early atmosphere

A one-dimensional photochemical model was used to examine the effect of bolide impacts on the oxidation state of earth's primitive atmosphere. The impact rate should have been high prior to 3.8 Ga before present, based on evidence derived from the moon. Impacts of comets or carbonaceous asteroids should have enhanced the atmospheric CO/CO2 ratio by bringing in CO ice and/or organic carbon that can be oxidized to CO in the impact plume. Ordinary chondritic impactors would contain elemental iron that could have reacted with ambient CO2 to give CO. Nitric oxide (NO) should also have been produced by reaction between ambient CO2 and N2 in the hot impact plumes. High NO concentrations increase the atmospheric CO/CO2 ratio by increasing the rainout rate of oxidized gases. According to the model, atmospheric CO/CO2 ratios of unity or greater are possible during the first several hundred million years of earth's history, provided that dissolved CO was not rapidly oxidized to bicarbonate in the ocean.

Kasting, James F.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Bolide impacts and the oxidation state of carbon in the Earth's early atmosphere

A one-dimensional photochemical model was used to examine the effect of bolide impacts on the oxidation state of Earth's primitive atmosphere. The impact rate should have been high prior to 3.8 Ga before present, based on evidence derived from the Moon. Impacts of comets or carbonaceous asteroids should have enhanced the atmospheric CO/CO2 ratio by bringing in CO ice and/or organic carbon that can be oxidized to CO in the impact plume. Ordinary chondritic impactors would contain elemental iron that could have reacted with ambient CO2 to give CO. Nitric oxide (NO) should also have been produced by reaction between ambient CO2 and N2 in the hot impact plumes. High NO concentrations increase the atmospheric CO/CO2 ratio by increasing the rainout rate of oxidized gases. According to the model, atmospheric CO/CO2 ratios of unity or greater are possible during the first several hundred million years of Earth's history, provided that dissolved CO was not rapidly oxidized to bicarbonate in the ocean. Specifically, high atmospheric CO/CO2 ratios are possible if either: (1) the climate was cool (like today's climate), so that hydration of dissolved CO to formate was slow, or (2) the formate formed from CO was efficiently converted into volatile, reduced carbon compounds, such as methane. A high atmospheric CO/CO2 ratio may have helped to facilitate prebiotic synthesis by enhancing the production rates of hydrogen cyanide and formaldehyde. Formaldehyde may have been produced even more efficiently by photochemical reduction of bicarbonate and formate in Fe(++)-rich surface waters.

Non-NASA Center↗