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Materials Data on CI(NO)3 by Materials Project

CN2N2CI2(NO3)2 crystallizes in the monoclinic P2_1/c space group. The structure is zero-dimensional and consists of eight ammonia molecules, four cyanamide molecules, and two CI2(NO3)2 clusters. In each CI2(NO3)2 cluster, C4+ is bonded in a single-bond geometry to one N1+ atom. The C–N bond length is 1.25 Å. There are two inequivalent N1+ sites. In the first N1+ site, N1+ is bonded in a bent 120 degrees geometry to one C4+ and one O2- atom. The N–O bond length is 1.31 Å. In the second N1+ site, N1+ is bonded in a bent 120 degrees geometry to two O2- atoms. There is one shorter (1.20 Å) and one longer (1.36 Å) N–O bond length. There are six inequivalent O2- sites. In the first O2- site, O2- is bonded in a single-bond geometry to one I1- atom. The O–I bond length is 1.80 Å. In the second O2- site, O2- is bonded in a single-bond geometry to one I1- atom. The O–I bond length is 1.81 Å. In the third O2- site, O2- is bonded in a distorted bent 120 degrees geometry to one N1+ and one I1- atom. The O–I bond length is 2.17 Å. In the fourth O2- site, O2- is bonded in a distorted trigonal non-coplanar geometry to three I1- atoms. There are a spread of O–I bond distances ranging from 1.95–2.64 Å. In the fifth O2- site, O2- is bonded in a single-bond geometry to one N1+ atom. In the sixth O2- site, O2- is bonded in a distorted bent 120 degrees geometry to one N1+ and one I1- atom. The O–I bond length is 2.25 Å. There are two inequivalent I1- sites. In the first I1- site, I1- is bonded in a 3-coordinate geometry to three O2- atoms. In the second I1- site, I1- is bonded in a 4-coordinate geometry to four O2- atoms.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Development and validation of a 30-day mortality index based on pre-existing medical administrative data from 13,323 COVID-19 patients: The Veterans Health Administration COVID-19 (VACO) Index

Background Available COVID-19 mortality indices are limited to acute inpatient data. Using nationwide medical administrative data available prior to SARS-CoV-2 infection from the US Veterans Health Administration (VA), we developed the VA COVID-19 (VACO) 30-day mortality index and validated the index in two independent, prospective samples. Methods and findings We reviewed SARS-CoV-2 testing results within the VA between February 8 and August 18, 2020. The sample was split into a development cohort (test positive between March 2 and April 15, 2020), an early validation cohort (test positive between April 16 and May 18, 2020), and a late validation cohort (test positive between May 19 and July 19, 2020). Our logistic regression model in the development cohort considered demographics (age, sex, race/ethnicity), and pre-existing medical conditions and the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) derived from ICD-10 diagnosis codes. Weights were fixed to create the VACO Index that was then validated by comparing area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) in the early and late validation cohorts and among important validation cohort subgroups defined by sex, race/ethnicity, and geographic region. We also evaluated calibration curves and the range of predictions generated within age categories. 13,323 individuals tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 (median age: 63 years; 91% male; 42% non-Hispanic Black). We observed 480/3,681 (13%) deaths in development, 253/2,151 (12%) deaths in the early validation cohort, and 403/7,491 (5%) deaths in the late validation cohort. Age, multimorbidity described with CCI, and a history of myocardial infarction or peripheral vascular disease were independently associated with mortality–no other individual comorbid diagnosis provided additional information. The VACO Index discriminated mortality in development (AUC = 0.79, 95% CI: 0.77–0.81), and in early (AUC = 0.81 95% CI: 0.78–0.83) and late (AUC = 0.84, 95% CI: 0.78–0.86) validation. The VACO Index allows personalized estimates of 30-day mortality after COVID-19 infection. For example, among those aged 60–64 years, overall mortality was estimated at 9% (95% CI: 6–11%). The Index further discriminated risk in this age stratum from 4% (95% CI: 3–7%) to 21% (95% CI: 12–31%), depending on sex and comorbid disease. Conclusion Prior to infection, demographics and comorbid conditions can discriminate COVID-19 mortality risk overall and within age strata. The VACO Index reproducibly identified individuals at substantial risk of COVID-19 mortality who might consider continuing social distancing, despite relaxed state and local guidelines.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Iron Heterogeneity in Early Active Multiple Sclerosis Lesions

Objective: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a heterogeneous inflammatory demyelinating disease. Iron distribution is altered in MS patients' brains, suggesting iron liberation within active lesions amplifies demyelination and neurodegeneration. Whether the amount and distribution of iron are similar or different among different MS immunopatterns is currently unknown. Methods: We used synchrotron X-ray fluorescence imaging, histology, and immunohistochemistry to compare the iron quantity and distribution between immunopattern II and III early active MS lesions. We analyzed archival autopsy and biopsy tissue from 21 MS patients. Results: Immunopattern II early active lesions contain 64% more iron (95% confidence interval [CI] = 17-127, p = 0.004) than immunopattern III lesions, and 30% more iron than the surrounding periplaque white matter (95% CI = 3–64%, p = 0.03). Iron in immunopattern III lesions is 28% lower than in the periplaque white matter (95% CI = -40 to -14%, p < 0.001). When normalizing the iron content of early active lesions to that of surrounding periplaque white matter, the ratio is significantly higher in immunopattern II (p < 0.001). Microfocused X-ray fluorescence imaging shows that iron in immunopattern II lesions localizes to macrophages, whereas macrophages in immunopattern III lesions contain little iron. Interpretation: Iron distribution and content are heterogeneous in early active MS lesions. Iron accumulates in macrophages in immunopattern II, but not immunopattern III lesions. This heterogeneity in the two most common MS immunopatterns may be explained by different macrophage polarization, origin, or different demyelination mechanisms, and paves the way for developing new or using existing iron-sensitive magnetic resonance imaging techniques to differentiate among immunopatterns in the general nonbiopsied MS patient population.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

A decade of curtailment studies demonstrates a consistent and effective strategy to reduce bat fatalities at wind turbines in North America

Abstract There is a rapid, global push for wind energy installation. However, large numbers of bats are killed by turbines each year, raising concerns about the impacts of wind energy expansion on bat populations. Preventing turbine blades from spinning at low wind speeds, referred to as curtailment, is a method to reduce bat fatalities, but drawing consistent inference across studies has been challenging. We compiled publicly available studies that evaluated curtailment at six wind energy facilities in North America across 10 years. We used meta‐regression of 29 implemented treatments to determine fatality reduction efficacy as well as sources of variation influencing efficacy. We also estimated species‐specific fatality reduction for three species that comprise most fatalities in North America: hoary bat ( Lasiurus cinereus ), eastern red bat ( Lasiurus borealis ) and silver‐haired bat ( Lasionycteris noctivagans ). We found that curtailment reduced total bat fatalities by 33% with every 1.0 ms −1 increase in curtailment wind speed. Estimates of the efficacy for the three target species were similar (hoary bats: 28% per ms −1 , 95% CI: 0.4%–48%, eastern red bats: 32% per ms −1 , 95% CI: 13%–47% and silver‐haired bats: 32% per ms −1 , 95% CI: 3%–53%). Across multiple facilities and years, a 5.0 ms −1 cut‐in speed was estimated to reduce total bat fatalities by an average of 62% (95% CI: 54%–69%). Mortality reductions at individual facilities in any given year were estimated to fall between 33%–79% (95% prediction interval). Inter‐annual differences rather than inter‐site or turbine characteristics accounted for most of the variation in efficacy rates. Species‐specific average mortality reduction at 5.0 ms −1 curtailment wind speed was 48% (95% CI: 24%–64%) for hoary bats, 61% (95% CI: 42%–74%) for eastern red bats and 52% (95% CI: 30%–66%) for silver‐haired bats. Practical implication . curtailment reduced bat mortality at wind turbines in this North American study. Efficacy increased proportionally as curtailment speed is raised, and patterns and rates of efficacy were similar across species. This indicates that curtailment is an effective strategy to reduce bat fatalities at wind energy facilities, but exploration of further refinements could both minimize bat mortality and maximize energy production.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Implications from Monitoring Gopher Tortoises at Two Spatial Scales

A problem that conservation biologists face is how to monitor species, given both resource limitations and the inherent challenges of assessing long-term demographic processes. We assessed gopher tortoise (Gopherus polyphemus) abundance at a landscape scale and at the scale of 3 local populations within the Conecuh National Forest (CNF).USA between 1991 and 2017. Landscape-level data were collected 26 from line transect distance sampling arranged uniformly across the CNF and collected during a single season (2011); data for local populations were generated from long-term mark-recapture of individuals at three sites selected based on prior knowledge of high density at each. At a landscape scale, we estimated 5,242 (95% CI = 3,538-7,768) tortoises occurred across the approximately 34,000-ha forest, yielding a density of 0.14-0.32 tortoises/ ha. These low densities across the landscape suggest that, on average, management activities across the property have not allowed tortoise populations to retain social structure needed for long-term persistence. The three local populations, however, contained 25-60 individuals and densities of 1.9–6.9 tortoises/ha. Over the study period, populations at two sites were stable and the third experienced significant population growth. Mean annual survival of individuals was 0.89 and invariant across size classes. Altogether, line transect distance sampling is important for assessing landscape-scale abundance of tortoises but may fail to detect local clusters of high-density sites important for population persistence. Our mark-recapture efforts at the local scale revealed that small populations on these high-density sites can exhibit long-term stability or growth even though they do not meet current established criteria for viability. Improved models that incorporate immigration and emigration and better reflect dynamics of peripheral populations would assist in determining how such populations best contribute to species recovery and regional conservation targets.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

In situ investigation of conducting interface formation in $\mathrm{LaAlO_3}$/$\mathrm{SrTiO_3}$ heterostructure

The high-mobility conducting interface (CI) between LaAlO 3 (LAO) and SrTiO 3 (STO) has revealed many fascinating phenomena, including exotic magnetism and superconductivity. But, the formation mechanism of the CI has not been conclusively explained. Here, using in situ angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy, we elucidated the mechanisms for the CI formation. In as-grown samples, we observed a built-in potential (V bi ) proportional to the polar LAO thickness starting from the first unit cell (UC) with CI formation appearing above 3 UCs. However, we found that the V bi is removed by synchrotron ultraviolet (UV)-irradiation; The built-in potential is recovered by oxygen gas (O 2 (g))-exposure. Furthermore, after UV-irradiation, the CI appears even below 3UC of LAO. Here, our results demonstrate not only the V bi -driven CI formation in as-grown LAO/STO, but also a new route to control of the interface state by UV lithographic patterning or other surface modification.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Investigation of enhanced CO 2 storage in deep saline aquifers by WAG and brine extraction in the Minnelusa sandstone, Wyoming

Geological CO 2 sequestration in deep saline aquifers has been extendedly investigated to reach the goal of carbon neutral as large amount of CO 2 can be reduced in a short time. Here, this study investigates the feasibility of water-alternating-gas (WAG) injection and brine extraction on enhancing CO 2 storage in a target deep saline aquifer, Minnelusa Sandstone in the Powder River Basin (PRB) of Wyoming. An integrated numerical model is developed to account for four scenarios: (1) CO 2 continuous injection (CI) through one injection well, (2) WAG injection through one injection well, (3) CO 2 CI through one injection well and brine extraction through one producer, (4) WAG injection through one injection well and brine extraction through one producer. Simulation results suggest that WAG injection and brine extraction corporately make it possible to enhance CO 2 injectivity while securing CO 2 storage safety. For instance, WAG injection considerably reduces structural trapping contribution while enhances dissolved and residual trapping contributions. As for brine extraction, it can decrease the maximum averaged reservoir pressure by 37% and 22% for CI and WAG injection, respectively. Besides, sensitive analyses of the operational parameters for the fourth scenarios are performed. Results reveal that, when the amount of total CO 2 injection has been predetermined, CO 2 injection time and rate within each period of WAG should be small whereas it is preferable to have large water injection time and rate. This is to secure desirable dissolved and residual trapping contributions (store CO 2 with safety). Sensitive degree results confirm that CO 2 injection rate, water injection time, and CO 2 injection time of WAG injection exhibit significant effects on CO 2 storage whereas the impacts of producer bottom-hole pressure (BHP), water injection rate, and CO 2 -water injection time are relatively weaker. This study not only sheds light on achieving double-win goal: enhance CO 2 injectivity and store CO 2 with safety, but also can be a critical reference for other CO 2 storage in deep saline aquifers.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Identification of the acetaldehyde oxide Criegee intermediate reaction network in the ozone-assisted low-temperature oxidation of trans -2-butene

Uni- and bi-molecular reactions involving Criegee intermediates (CIs) have been the focus of many studies due to the role these molecules play in atmospheric chemistry. The reactivity of CIs is known to strongly depend on their structure. The reaction network of the second simplest CI, acetaldehyde oxide (CH 3 CHOO), is investigated in this work in an atmospheric pressure jet-stirred reactor (JSR) during the ozonolysis of trans-2-butene to explore the kinetic pathways relevant to atmospheric chemistry and low-temperature combustion. The mole fraction profiles of reactants, intermediates, and final products are determined by means of molecular-beam mass spectrometry in conjunction with single-photon ionization employing tunable synchrotron-generated vacuum ultraviolet radiation. A network of CI reactions is identified in the temperature region below 600 K, characterized by CI addition to trans-2-butene, water, formaldehyde, formic acid, and methanol. No sequential additions of the CH 3 CHOO CI are observed, in contrast with the reactivity of the simplest CI (H 2 COO) and the earlier observation of an extensive reaction network with up to four H 2 COO sequential additions (Phys. Chem. Chem. Phys., 2019, 21, 7341–7357). Experimental photoionization efficiency scans recorded at 300 K and 425 K and ab initio threshold energy calculations lead to the identification and quantification of previously elusive intermediates, such as ketohydroperoxide and hydroperoxide species. Specifically, the C 4 H 8 + O 3 adduct is identified as a ketohydroperoxide (KHP, 3-hydroperoxybutan-2-one, CH 3 C([double bond, length as m-dash]O)CH(CH 3 )OOH), while hydroxyacetaldehyde (glycolaldehyde, HCOCH 2 OH) formation is attributed to unimolecular isomerization of the CIs. Other hydroperoxide species such as methyl hydroperoxide (CH 3 OOH), ethyl hydroperoxide (C 2 H 5 OOH), butyl hydroperoxide (OOH), hydroperoxyl acetaldehyde (HOOCH 2 CHO), hydroxyethyl hydroperoxide (CH 3 CH(OH)OOH), but-1-enyl-3-hydroperoxide, and 4-hydroxy-3-methylpentan-2-one (HOCH(CH 3 )CH(CH 3 )C([double bond, length as m-dash]O)CH 3 ) are also identified. Detection of additional oxygenated species such as methanol, ethanol, ketene, and aldehydes suggests multiple active oxidation routes. Finally, these results provide additional evidence that CIs are key intermediates of the ozone-unsaturated hydrocarbon reactions providing critical inputs for improved kinetics models.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Global impacts of vegetation clumping on regulating land surface heat fluxes

The clumping index (CI) quantifies the non-random distribution of vegetation across space, which regulates the canopy radiative transfer processes and land surface carbon, water, and energy cycles. However, its impact on global surface energy budget, particularly sensible heat fluxes and surface temperature, is not well understood. Additionally, while there have been studies showing significant seasonal variations in CI, the impacts of these variations on surface energy fluxes remain unclear. In this study, we incorporated satellite-derived spatially and temporally explicit CI data into the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5) to evaluate the effects of CI on global land energy fluxes. Our results showed that including CI increased the global mean sensible heat flux dissipated from ground by 3.9 W m -2 (~18%), while decreasing the global mean vegetation sensible heat flux by 4.9 W m -2 (~65%), resulting in a total sensible heat decrease of 1.0 W m -2 (~3%). In contrast, CI increased the global mean latent heat flux by 0.8 W m -2 (~2%), primarily due to increased evapotranspiration (up to 11 W m -2 ) in tropical regions. We also found considerable impacts of seasonal variations in CI, particularly on sensible heat fluxes from ground and vegetation in evergreen needleleaf forests and deciduous needleleaf forests. Using constant CI rather than considering seasonal variations resulted in significant overestimation and underestimation of the sensible heat fluxes from vegetation and ground, respectively, in boreal summer. In conclusion, these changes in surface energy fluxes caused by CI and its seasonal variations led to up to 1.7 and 0.5 K differences in simulated mean ground temperature. These findings highlight the importance of including CI and considering its seasonal variations in modeling land surface energy fluxes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Historical Savannah River Site Tritium Releases, Pathways, and Transport

† Releases of tritium from the production reactors were due almost entirely to releases of moderator, either as liquid or vapor from the reactor systems and from the heavy water rework facility. Small amounts could have been released from the reactor blanket gas system and from irradiated lithium-bearing control rods and targets stored underwater in the disassembly basins (Longtin et al. 1973; Jacober et al. 1973). ‡Only a part of the tritium released to the seepage and retention basins leave the site. Of the 3,015,000 Ci of tritium released to the basins, 27% (0.81M Ci) evaporated from the basin surfaces, 40% (1.2M Ci) migrated to outcrops and entered surface streams, and 33% (0.99M Ci) remains under the basins.

Chiswell, Steven R.↗

Comparisons Between Resolved Star Formation Rate and Gas Tracers in the Strongly Lensed Galaxy SDSS J0901+1814 at Cosmic Noon

We report new radio observations of SDSS J090122.37+181432.3, a strongly lensed star-forming galaxy at $z=2.26$. We image 1.4 GHz (L-band) and 3 GHz (S-band) continuum using the VLA and 1.2 mm (band 6) continuum with ALMA, in addition to the CO(7-6) and CI(${\rm ^3P_2\rightarrow ^3\!P_1}$) lines, all at $\lesssim1.^{\prime\prime}7$ resolution. Based on the VLA integrated flux densities, we decompose the radio spectrum into its free-free (FF) and non-thermal components. The infrared-radio correlation (IRRC) parameter $q_{\rm TIR}=2.65_{-0.31}^{+0.24}$ is consistent with expectations for star forming galaxies. We obtain radio continuum-derived SFRs that are free of dust extinction, finding $\rm {620}_{-220}^{+280}\,M_\odot\,yr^{-1}$, $\rm {230}_{-160}^{+570}\,M_\odot\,yr^{-1}$, and $\rm {280}_{-120}^{+460}\,M_\odot\,yr^{-1}$ from the FF emission, non-thermal emission, and when accounting for both emission processes, respectively, in agreement with previous results. We estimate the gas mass from the CI(${\rm ^3P_2\rightarrow ^3\!P_1}$) line as $M_{\rm gas}=(1.2\pm0.2)\times10^{11}\,M_\odot$, which is consistent with prior CO(1-0)-derived gas masses. Using our new IR and radio continuum data to map the SFR, we assess the dependence of the Schmidt-Kennicutt relation on choices of SFR and gas tracer for $\sim{\rm kpc}$ scales. The different SFR tracers yield different slopes, with the IR being the steepest, potentially due to highly obscured star formation in J0901. The radio continuum maps have the lowest slopes and overall fidelity for mapping the SFR, despite producing consistent total SFRs. We also find that the Schmidt-Kennicutt relation slope is flattest when using CO(7-6) or CI(${\rm ^3P_2\rightarrow ^3\!P_1}$) to trace gas mass, suggesting that those transitions are not suitable for tracing the bulk molecular gas in galaxies like J0901.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Image analysis reveals differences in tumor multinucleations in Black and White patients with human papillomavirus‐associated oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma

Background Understanding biological differences between different racial groups of human papillomavirus (HPV)‐associated oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) patients, who have differences in terms of incidence, survival, and tumor morphology, can facilitate accurate prognostic biomarkers, which can help develop personalized treatment strategies. Methods This study evaluated whether there were morphologic differences between HPV‐associated tumors from Black and White patients in terms of multinucleation index (MuNI), an image analysis‐derived metric that measures density of multinucleated tumor cells within epithelial regions on hematoxylin–eosin images and previously has been prognostic in HPV‐associated OPSCC patients. In this study, the authors specifically evaluated whether the same MuNI cutoff that was prognostic of overall survival (OS) and disease‐free survival in their previous study, T TR , is valid for Black and White patients, separately. We also evaluated population‐specific cutoffs, T B for Blacks and T W for Whites, for risk stratification. Results MuNI was statistically significantly different between Black (mean, 3.88e–4; median, 3.67e–04) and White patients (mean, 3.36e–04; median, 2.99e–04), with p = .0078. Using T TR , MuNI was prognostic of OS in the entire population with hazard ratio (HR) of 1.71 ( p = .002; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.21–2.43) and in White patients with HR of 1.72 ( p = .005; 95% CI, 1.18–2.51). Population‐specific cutoff, T W , yielded improved HR of 1.77 ( p = .003; 95% CI, 1.21–2.58) for White patients, whereas T B did not improve risk‐stratification in Black patients with HR of 0.6 ( p = .3; HR, 0.6; 95% CI, 0.2–1.80). Conclusions Histological difference between White and Black patient tumors in terms of multinucleated tumor cells suggests the need for considering population‐specific prognostic biomarkers for personalized risk stratification strategies for HPV‐associated OPSCC patients.

Koyuncu, Can F.↗

Performance of Windows in Walls With Continuous Insulation

Window openings in walls are a significant contributor to poor thermal performance because of thermal bridging through the framing members (e.g., studs, joists, plates, bracing) and because windows lack the thermal properties of insulation. Window installation guidance for walls with continuous insulation (CI) is critical for continued market growth of this energy efficiency technology. This research project offers window manufacturers a starting point and a potential path toward developing installation instructions for windows over CI. The objectives of the research include evaluating the common method for installing windows in walls with CI, as well as establishing acceptance criteria for evaluating the performance of windows installed in walls with and without CI. The research measures: 1. The performance characteristics (e.g., water management, structural integrity) of windows in walls without CI. 2. The performance of different thicknesses and types of CI used in walls. 3. The performance of different types of window assemblies (e.g., double-hung windows, mulled double-hung windows, mulled casement windows, and slider windows) installed over CI. 4. The performance of window flange types (e.g., rigid mounting and less robust flanges) installed over CI. 5. Installing windows over CI using baseline installation instructions versus window manufacturer installation instructions. The project’s sequential testing protocol consists of the following: • A water penetration resistance testing adapted from two ASTM standards: E331 (uniform static air pressure in four steps) and E547 (cyclic static air pressure) • A temperature cycling adapted from ASTM E2264 Method B (convective hot air) • A service condition wind loading test adapted from ASTM E330 • A six-month vertical displacement observation phase prior to the structural performance testing • A final water penetration resistance test after vertical displacement observation • A structural performance test adapted from ASTM E330. Key research findings include: • The criterion for passing a water penetration resistance test is that there is no water overflowing at the interior face of the studs. If there is any bubbling or slight pooling of water at the sill, then it must recede after the pressure is removed. Excessive leakage and/or water leaking to the interior face of the framing around the window constitutes a failure. • All single double-hung windows installed directly to lumber or over oriented strand board passed all test protocols. • For most wall specimens, the test results showed that the use of foam sheathing did not affect the performance of the window for water leakage. • All wall specimens underwent temperature cycling. The results indicated that temperature cycling had little to no effect on windows installed over foam sheathing. • For wall specimens that underwent six-month vertical displacement monitoring, the results showed that windows installed over foam sheathing do not sag over time. • The single-hung and double-hung windows installed using window manufacturer installation instructions passed the structural performance test, compared to failures observed in windows that were installed using generic installation instructions. The generic and manufacturer installation methods differed on the following construction details: type of fasteners, fastening patterns on the flanges, and window shimming details. • Additional testing is required to determine methods to improve structural pressure performance of slider windows. Potential solutions that would require additional testing may include fastener spacing, different types of fasteners, masonry window clips, construction adhesive, foam sealant, stronger window flange material, and/or straps.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Expected individual benefit of prophylactic platelet transfusions in hemato‐oncology patients based on bleeding risks

Abstract Background Prophylactic platelet transfusions prevent bleeding in hemato‐oncology patients, but it is unclear how any benefit varies between patients. Our aim was to assess if patients with different baseline risks for bleeding benefit differently from a prophylactic platelet transfusion strategy. Study design and methods Using the data from the randomized controlled TOPPS trial (Trial of Platelet Prophylaxis), we developed a prediction model for World Health Organization grades 2, 3, and 4 bleeding risk (defined as at least one bleeding episode in a 30 days period) and grouped patients in four risk‐quartiles based on this predicted baseline risk. Predictors in the model were baseline platelet count, age, diagnosis, disease modifying treatment, disease status, previous stem cell transplantation, and the randomization arm. Results The model had a c‐statistic of 0.58 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.54–0.64). There was little variation in predicted risks (quartiles 46%, 47%, and 51%), but prophylactic platelet transfusions gave a risk reduction in all risk quartiles. The absolute risk difference (ARD) was 3.4% (CI −12.2 to 18.9) in the lowest risk quartile (quartile 1), 7.4% (95% CI −8.4 to 23.3) in quartile 2, 6.8% (95% CI −9.1 to 22.9) in quartile 3, and 12.8% (CI −3.1 to 28.7) in the highest risk quartile (quartile 4). Conclusion In our study, generally accepted bleeding risk predictors had limited predictive power (expressed by the low c‐statistic), and, given the wide confidence intervals of predicted ARD, could not aid in identifying subgroups of patients who might benefit more (or less) from prophylactic platelet transfusion.

Cornelissen, Loes L.↗

A phase 2 study of sorafenib combined with conventional therapies in refractory central nervous system leukemia

Background Patients with refractory central nervous system leukemia (CNSL) have a dismal prognosis and lack effective therapy. Case reports have shown that sorafenib is effective against brain metastases, including leukemia. Methods To explore the efficacy of sorafenib combined with conventional therapies for refractory CNSL, a phase 2 study was conducted. The primary end point was the complete remission rate (CRR) within 8 weeks of treatment. Secondary end points included the overall response rate (ORR), event‐free survival (EFS), overall survival (OS), and adverse events (AEs). Results Twenty‐six patients with refractory CNSL were enrolled; they included 17 with isolated CNSL, 7 with hematological relapse, and 2 with another extramedullary relapse. After 8 weeks of treatment, 21 patients achieved complete remission, 2 achieved partial remission, and 3 achieved no remission for a CRR of 80.8% (95% CI, 62.1%‐91.5%) and an ORR of 88.5% (95% CI, 71.0%‐96.0%). Twenty patients survived, and 6 died. The 2‐year EFS and OS rates were 75.0% (95% CI, 54.5%‐88.3%) and 76.9% (95% CI, 54.2%‐90.4%), respectively. Six patients experienced grade 3 or 4 treatment‐related AEs, including moderate chronic graft‐vs‐host disease (n = 3), grade 3 or 4 acute graft‐vs‐host disease (n = 2), and grade 3 skin rash (n = 1). No treatment‐related deaths occurred during the therapy of refractory CNSL. Conclusions Sorafenib combined with conventional therapies is effective and safe for refractory CNSL. Lay Summary Sorafenib combined with conventional therapies is effective and safe for refractory central nervous system leukemia.

Chen, Xiaoxia↗

Large-Eddy Simulations of Convection Initiation over Heterogeneous, Low Terrain

Abstract Large-eddy simulations are conducted to investigate and physically interpret the impacts of heterogeneous, low terrain on deep-convection initiation (CI). The simulations are based on a case of shallow-to-deep convective transition over the Amazon River basin, and use idealized terrains with varying levels of ruggedness. The terrain is designed by specifying its power-spectral shape in wavenumber space, inverting to physical space assuming random phases for all wave modes, and scaling the terrain to have a peak height of 200 m. For the case in question, these modest terrain fields expedite CI by up to 2–3 h, largely due to the impacts of the terrain on the size of, and subcloud support for, incipient cumuli. Terrain-induced circulations enhance subcloud kinetic energy on the mesoscale, which is realized as wider and longer-lived subcloud circulations. When the updraft branches of these circulations breach the level of free convection, they initiate wider and more persistent cumuli that subsequently undergo less entrainment-induced cloud dilution and detrainment-induced mass loss. As a result, the clouds become more vigorous and penetrate deeper into the troposphere. Larger-scale terrains are more effective than smaller-scale terrains in promoting CI because they induce larger enhancements in both the width and the persistence of subcloud updrafts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The iron oxidation state of Ryugu samples

The Hayabusa2 mission sampled Ryugu, an asteroid that did not suffer extensive thermal metamorphism, and returned rocks to the Earth with no significant air exposure. It therefore offers a unique opportunity to study the redox state of carbonaceous Cb-type asteroids and evaluate the overall redox state of the most primitive rocks of the solar system. An analytical framework was developed to investigate the iron mineralogy and valence state in extraterrestrial material at the micron scale by combining x-ray diffraction, conventional Mössbauer (MS), and nuclear forward scattering (NFS) spectroscopies. An array of standard minerals was analyzed and cross-calibrated between MS and NFS. Then, MS and NFS spectra on three Ryugu grains were collected at the bulk and the micron scales. In Ryugu samples, iron is essentially accommodated in magnetite, clay minerals (serpentine–smectite), and sulfides. Only a single set of Mössbauer parameters was necessary to account for the entire variability observed in MS and NFS spectra, at all spatial scales investigated. These parameters therefore make up a fully consistent iron mineralogical model for the Ryugu samples. As far as MS and NFS spectroscopies are concerned, Ryugu grains are overall similar to each other and share most of their mineralogical features with CI-type chondrites. In detail however, no ferrihydrite is found in Ryugu particles even at the very sensitive scale of Mössbauer spectroscopy. The typical Fe 3+ /Fe tot of clay minerals is much lower than typical redox ratios measured in CI chondrites (Fe 3+ /Fe tot = 85%–90%). Furthermore, magnetite from Ryugu is stoichiometric with no significant maghemite component, whereas up to 12% of maghemite was previously identified in the Orgueil's so-called magnetite. These differences suggest that most CI meteorites suffered terrestrial alteration and that the preterrestrial composition of these carbon-rich samples was less oxidized than previously measured. However, it is not clear yet whether or not the parent bodies of CI chondrites were as reduced as Ryugu. Finally, the high spatial resolution of NFS allows to disentangle the redox state and the crystal chemistry of iron accommodated in serpentine and smectite. The most likely polytype of serpentine is lizardite, containing <35% of Fe 3+ , a fraction of which being tetrahedrally coordinated. Smectite is more oxidized (Fe 3+ /Fe tot > 65%) and mainly contains octahedral ferric iron. In conclusion, this finding implies that these clays formed from highly alkaline fluids and the spatial variability highlighted here may suggest a temporal evolution or a spatial variability of the nature of this fluid.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Association between long-term exposure to ambient air pollution and COVID-19 severity: a prospective cohort study

The tremendous global health burden related to COVID-19 means that identifying determinants of COVID-19 severity is important for prevention and intervention. We aimed to explore long-term exposure to ambient air pollution as a potential contributor to COVID-19 severity, given its known impact on the respiratory system. Methods: We used a cohort of all people with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, aged 20 years and older and not residing in a long-term care facility in Ontario, Canada, during 2020. We evaluated the association between long-term exposure to fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ), nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) and ground-level ozone (O 3 ), and risk of COVID-19-related hospital admission, intensive care unit (ICU) admission and death. We ascertained individuals’ longterm exposures to each air pollutant based on their residence from 2015 to 2019. We used logistic regression and adjusted for confounders and selection bias using various individual and contextual covariates obtained through data linkage. Results: Among the 151105 people with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection in Ontario in 2020, we observed 8630 hospital admissions, 1912 ICU admissions and 2137 deaths related to COVID-19. For each interquartile range increase in exposure to PM 2.5 (1.70 µg/m 3 ), we estimated odds ratios of 1.06 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01–1.12), 1.09 (95% CI 0.98–1.21) and 1.00 (95% CI 0.90–1.11) for hospital admission, ICU admission and death, respectively. Estimates were smaller for NO 2 . We also estimated odds ratios of 1.15 (95% CI 1.06–1.23), 1.30 (95% CI 1.12–1.50) and 1.18 (95% CI 1.02–1.36) per interquartile range increase of 5.14 ppb in O 3 for hospital admission, ICU admission and death, respectively.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗