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At least 19 records

Evaluating the Impact of Residential Solar Contract Cancellations in the United States

The residential solar photovoltaic (PV) market in the United States is growing, despite frequent customer cancellations. Contract cancellations result in lost time and costs that must be borne by installers, often in the form of higher "soft costs" (i.e., non-equipment costs). These costs are often passed on to customers who successfully install PV systems. To date, few studies have attempted to estimate national cancellation rates or model the impacts on installed system costs. In this report, we utilize an installer-provided dataset of 199,665 residential PV-only projects representing about 10% of U.S. installs each year from 2017-2019. With this data, we evaluate cancellation rates and trends from contract signing to install. Next, by leveraging NREL's soft cost model for residential solar, we estimate installer spending through each phase of the pre-install process. Applying our findings on cancellation timelines and rates, we then estimate the potential cost impacts to successful installs from contract cancellations. Our work suggests that the rates and impacts of contract cancellations have been previously underestimated. Namely, we find that cancellations/unsuccessful project are; more common than previous estimates suggest; occur earlier in project timelines, though a significant number happen even after permit/ATB approvals; and contribute significantly to customer acquisition and other soft costs. We also find that cancellation do not appear to be driven by review delays in permitting and interconnection applications.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Finetuned Cancellations and Improbable Theories

It is argued that the x–y cancellation model (XYCM) is a good proxy for discussions of finetuned cancellations in physical theories. XYCM is then analyzed from a statistical perspective, where it is argued that a finetuned point in the parameter space is not abnormal, with any such point being just as probable as any other point. However, landing inside a standardly defined finetuned region (i.e., the full parameter space of finetuned points) has a much lower probability than landing outside the region, and that probability is invariant under assumed ranges of parameters. This proposition requires asserting also that the finetuned target region is a priori established. Furthermore, it is surmised that highly finetuned theories are generally expected to be highly improbable. An actionable implication of this moderate naturalness position is that the search for a non-finetuned explanation to supplant an apparently finetuned theory is likely to be a valid pursuit, but not guaranteed to be. A statistical characterization of this moderate position is presented, as well as those of the extreme pro-naturalness and anti-naturalness positions.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Hypercharge Flux, Exotics, and Anomaly Cancellation in F-theory Grand Unification

We sharpen constraints related to hypercharge flux in F-theory grand unified theories that possess U(1) symmetries and argue that they arise as a consequence of four-dimensional anomaly cancellation. This gives a physical explanation for all restrictions that were observed in spectral cover models while demonstrating that the phenomenological implications for a well-motivated set of models are not tied to any particular formalism.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

SELF-CANCELLATION OF EPHEMERAL REGIONS IN THE QUIET SUN

With the observations from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager aboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory, we statistically investigate the ephemeral regions (ERs) in the quiet Sun. We find that there are two types of ERs: normal ERs (NERs) and self-canceled ERs (SERs). Each NER emerges and grows with separation of its opposite polarity patches which will cancel or coalesce with other surrounding magnetic flux. Each SER also emerges and grows and its dipolar patches separate at first, but a part of the magnetic flux of the SER will move together and cancel gradually, which is described with the term 'self-cancellation' by us. We identify 2988 ERs, among which there are 190 SERs, about 6.4% of the ERs. The mean value of self-cancellation fraction of SERs is 62.5%, and the total self-canceled flux of SERs is 9.8% of the total ER flux. Our results also reveal that the higher the ER magnetic flux is, (1) the easier the performance of ER self-cancellation is, (2) the smaller the self-cancellation fraction is, and (3) the more the self-canceled flux is. We think that the self-cancellation of SERs is caused by the submergence of magnetic loops connecting the dipolar patches, without magnetic energy release.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Noise-canceling quantum feedback: Non-Hermitian dynamics with applications to state preparation and magic state distillation

Time-continuous quantum measurement allows for the tracking of a quantum system in real time via sequences of short, and individually weak, measurement intervals. Such measurements are necessarily invasive, imparting backaction to the system, and allowing the observer to update their state estimate based on stochastic measurement outcomes. Feedback control then involves real-time interventions by an observer, conditioned on the time-continuous measurement signal that they receive. Here, we consider here diffusive quantum trajectories and focus on the “noise-canceling” subset of feedback protocols that aim to minimize the degree of stochasticity in the dynamics. We derive such a class of feedback operations, showing that under the idealized assumptions of pure states, unit measurement efficiency, and zero time delay in implementing feedback operations, perfectly noise-canceling feedback always exists. We consider the resulting noise-canceled dynamics generated by an effective non-Hermitian Hamiltonian; while non-Hermitian Hamiltonians from continuous monitoring generally describe rare dynamics (accessible by costly postselection), the use of noise-canceling feedback here leads to non-Hermitian dynamics that occur deterministically. We demonstrate this via examples of entangled state preparation and stabilization. We then illustrate the potential for the application of noise cancellation to boost success rates in magic state distillation protocols. We show that adding feedback based on noise cancellation into a time-continuous five-to-one distillation protocol leads to higher probabilities of successful distillation across a range of input errors and increases the threshold on input errors for which the protocol is effective. Our results highlight the efficacy of noise-canceling feedback-aided protocols for quantum state preparation and stabilization tasks.

Karmakar, Tathagata [University of California, Ber↗

Prostaglandin E2 Restores Cancellous Bone to Immobilized Limb and Adds Bone to Overloaded Limb in Right Hindlimb Immobilization Rats

The purpose of this study was to determine whether prostaglandin E2 (PGE2) can restore cancellous bone mass and architecture to osteopenic, continuously immobilized (IM), proximal tibial metaphysis (PTM) in female rats. The right hindlimb of three and one-half-month-old Sprague-Dawley female rats were immobilized by right hindlimb immobilization (RHLI) in which the right hindlimb was underloaded and the contralateral left limb was overloaded during ambulation. After 4 or 12 weeks of RHLI, the rats were treated with 3 or 6 mg PGE2/kg/day and RHLI for 8 or 16 weeks. Bone histomorphometry was performed on microradiographs of PTM. Immobilization (IM) induced a transient cancellous bone loss and decreased trabecular thickness, number and node density, and increased free end density that established a new steady state after 4 weeks of IM. Three or 6 mg PGE2/kg/d for 8 weeks beginning at 4 or 12 weeks of IM completely restored cancellous bone mass (+127 to +188 percent) and structure to the age-related control levels in spite of continuous IM. Another 8 weeks of treatment maintained bone mass and architecture at these levels. No differences in cancellous bone mass and architecture were found between the overloaded PTM or RHLI rats and the age-related controls. However, 3 and 6 mg/kg/d of PGE2 treatment started at 4 or 12 weeks for 8 weeks significantly increased cancellous bone mass in the overloaded PTM (+45 to +74% of untreated controls), and another 8 weeks of treatment maintained bone mass at these levels. Our findings indicate that daily 3 or 6 mg PGE2/kg/d treatment restores and maintains PTM cancellous bone mass in continuously immobilized (right) tibiae, and adds and maintains extra bone to slightly overloaded PTM cancellous bone in female rats.

Li, M.↗

Magnetic Flux Cancelation as the Buildup and Trigger Mechanism for CME-Producing Eruptions in Two Small Active Regions

We follow two small, magnetically isolated CME-producing solar active regions (ARs) from the time of their emergence until several days later, when their core regions erupt to produce the CMEs. In both cases, magnetograms show: (a) following an initial period where the poles of the emerging regions separate from each other, the poles then reverse direction and start to retract inward; (b) during the retraction period, flux cancelation occurs along the main neutral line of the regions, (c) this cancelation builds the sheared core field/flux rope that eventually erupts to make the CME. In the two cases, respectively 30% and 50% of the maximum flux of the region cancels prior to the eruption. Recent studies indicate that solar coronal jets frequently result from small-scale filaments eruptions, with those "minifilament" eruptions also being built up and triggered by cancelation of magnetic flux. Together, the small-AR eruptions here and the coronal jet results suggest that isolated bipolar regions tend to erupt when some threshold fraction, perhaps in the range of 50%, of the region's maximum flux has canceled. Our observed erupting filaments/flux ropes form at sites of flux cancelation, in agreement with previous observations. Thus, the recent finding that minifilaments that erupt to form jets also form via flux cancelation is further evidence that minifilaments are small-scale versions of the long-studied full-sized filaments.

Sterling, Alphonse C.↗

Magnetic Flux Cancelation as the Buildup and Trigger Mechanism for CME-Producing Eruptions in two Small Active Regions

We follow two small, magnetically isolated CME-producing solar active regions (ARs) from the time of their emergence until the time that their core regions erupt to produce the CMEs several days later. In both cases, magnetograms show: (a) following an initial period where the poles of the emerging regions separate from each other, the poles then reverse direction and start to retract inward; (b) during the retraction period, flux cancelation occurs along the main neutral line of the regions, (c) this cancelation builds the sheared core field/flux rope that eventually erupts to make the CME. In the two cases, respectively 30% and 50% of the maximum flux of the region cancels prior to the eruption. Recent studies indicate that solar coronal jets frequently result from small-scale filaments eruptions, with those “minifilament” eruptions also being built up and triggered by cancelation of magnetic flux. Together, the small-AR eruptions here and the coronal jet results suggest that isolated bipolar regions tend to erupt before or when a threshold of roughly 50% of the region’s maximum flux has canceled. Our observed erupting filaments/flux ropes form at sites of flux cancelation, in agreement with previous observations. Thus, the recent finding that minifilaments that erupt to form jets also form via flux cancelation is further evidence that minifilaments are small-scale versions of the long-studied full-sized filaments.

Sterling, Alphonse C.↗

Magnetic Flux Cancelation as the Buildup and Trigger Mechanism for CME-Producing Eruptions in Two Small Active Regions

We follow two small, magnetically isolated CME (Coronal Mass Ejection)-producing solar active regions (ARs) from the time of their emergence until several days later, when their core regions erupt to produce the CMEs. In both cases, magnetograms show: (a) following an initial period where the poles of the emerging regions separate from each other, the poles then reverse direction and start to retract inward; (b) during the retraction period, flux cancelation occurs along the main neutral line of the regions, (c) this cancelation builds the sheared core field/flux rope that eventually erupts to make the CME. In the two cases, respectively 30 percent and 50 percent of the maximum flux of the region cancels prior to the eruption. Recent studies indicate that solar coronal jets frequently result from small-scale filaments eruptions (Sterling et al. 2015), with those “minifilament” eruptions also being built up and triggered by cancelation of magnetic flux (Panesar et al. 2016). Together, the small-AR eruptions here and the coronal jet results suggest that isolated bipolar regions tend to erupt when some threshold fraction, perhaps in the range of 50 percent, of the region’s maximum flux has canceled. Our observed erupting filaments/flux ropes form at sites of flux cancelation, in agreement with previous observations. Thus, the recent finding that minifilaments that erupt to form jets also form via flux cancelation is further evidence that minifilaments are small-scale versions of the long-studied full-sized filaments. (Details are in Sterling et al. 2018, ApJ, 864, 68.) Supported by NASA's Heliophysics Guest Investigators (HGI) Program and the MSFC (Marshall Space Flight Center)/Hinode project.

Sterling, Alphonse C.↗

Harmonic cancellation within AC low voltage distribution for a realistic office environment

An increase of non-linear loads, primarily from power electronics, has substantially increased current harmonics in commercial buildings, which contributes to decreased transformer efficiency / lifespan and poor power quality. This study uses recorded power consumption data from common miscellaneous electric loads (MELs) seen in offices, combined with detailed characterizations of example MELs, to simulate harmonic cancellation within building circuits. Typically, harmonic cancellation studies assume that AC converters operate across their rated power range. However, this study finds that common MELs operate below 40% of rated power the majority of the time when not quiescent; 89% of sampled devices never operated above 60% of rated power. Simulations using these more realistic power levels indicate current-harmonic cancellation (3rd to 13th harmonic) is significantly lower than that predicted when using full-range power assumptions, resulting in minor errors for low-order harmonics and larger errors for higher order harmonics. Furthermore, increased MELs load diversity increases harmonic cancellation, but insufficiently to eliminate errors. In contrast, blending lighting loads with MELs on the secondaries of distribution transformers improves harmonic cancellation to near those predicted by traditional methods. These results indicate that realistic power levels, as well as better characterization of harmonics from typical MELs, should be used to estimate harmonic cancellation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Development and experimental verification of an active noise cancellation (ANC) method for non-invasive sensing

Ultrasonic wave propagation may be used in non-invasive sensing to identify the properties of a fluid in a container. An ultrasonic excitation can be coupled into the liquid or the gas through the walls of the container and detected by a receiver on the other side. However, in addition to this fluid path, another signal will also propagate through the structure and is referred as noise in this study. For most materials, this structural noise will be of higher amplitude compared to the fluid signal due to the large acoustic impedance difference between the solid container and the fluid. In this paper, an active noise cancellation (ANC) method is developed and demonstrated on an experimental setup. It was shown that this method cancels more than 90% of the noise signal in a given time window of interest. A sequential version of this cancellation method is also proposed, and it was shown that its performance improves as the number of canceling excitations is increased. The performance was found to be independent of the location of canceling transducers and position of the silence window but dependent on the width of the silence window. As an example, the ANC method was applied to noise cancellation of a signal travelling through water in a stainless-steel container. The signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of the water signal in the window of interest was increased by 148% from 13.98 dB to 34.68 dB by using the proposed ANC method.

42 ENGINEERING↗

FLUX CANCELLATION AND THE EVOLUTION OF THE ERUPTIVE FILAMENT OF 2011 JUNE 7

We investigate whether flux cancellation is responsible for the formation of a very massive filament resulting in the spectacular eruption on 2011 June 7. We analyze and quantify the amount of flux cancellation that occurs in NOAA AR 11226 and its two neighboring active regions (ARs 11227 and 11233) using line-of-sight magnetograms from the Heliospheric Magnetic Imager. During a 3.6 day period building up to the eruption of the filament, 1.7 × 10{sup 21} Mx, 21% of AR 11226's maximum magnetic flux, was canceled along the polarity inversion line (PIL) where the filament formed. If the flux cancellation continued at the same rate up until the eruption then up to 2.8 × 10{sup 21} Mx (34% of the AR flux) may have been built into the magnetic configuration that contains the filament plasma. The large flux cancellation rate is due to an unusual motion of the positive-polarity sunspot, which splits, with the largest section moving rapidly toward the PIL. This motion compresses the negative polarity and leads to the formation of an orphan penumbra where one end of the filament is rooted. Dense plasma threads above the orphan penumbra build into the filament, extending its length, and presumably injecting material into it. We conclude that the exceptionally strong flux cancellation in AR 11226 played a significant role in the formation of its unusually massive filament. In addition, the presence and coherent evolution of bald patches in the vector magnetic field along the PIL suggest that the magnetic field configuration supporting the filament material is that of a flux rope.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Magnetic Flux Cancellation as the Origin of Solar Quiet-region Pre-jet Minifilaments

We investigate the origin of 10 solar quiet-region pre-jet minifilaments , using EUV images from the Solar Dynamics Observatory ( SDO )/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) and magnetograms from the SDO Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI). We recently found that quiet-region coronal jets are driven by minifilament eruptions, where those eruptions result from flux cancellation at the magnetic neutral line under the minifilament. Here, we study the longer-term origin of the pre-jet minifilaments themselves. We find that they result from flux cancellation between minority-polarity and majority-polarity flux patches. In each of 10 pre-jet regions, we find that opposite-polarity patches of magnetic flux converge and cancel, with a flux reduction of 10%–40% from before to after the minifilament appears. For our 10 events, the minifilaments exist for periods ranging from 1.5 hr to 2 days before erupting to make a jet. Apparently, the flux cancellation builds a highly sheared field that runs above and traces the neutral line, and the cool transition region plasma minifilament forms in this field and is suspended in it. We infer that the convergence of the opposite-polarity patches results in reconnection in the low corona that builds a magnetic arcade enveloping the minifilament in its core, and that the continuing flux cancellation at the neutral line finally destabilizes the minifilament field so that it erupts and drives the production of a coronal jet. Thus, our observations strongly support that quiet-region magnetic flux cancellation results in both the formation of the pre-jet minifilament and its jet-driving eruption.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

PHOTOSPHERIC FLUX CANCELLATION AND THE BUILD-UP OF SIGMOIDAL FLUX ROPES ON THE SUN

In this study we explore the scenario of photospheric flux cancellation being the primary formation mechanism of sigmoidal flux ropes in decaying active regions. We analyze magnetogram and X-ray observations together with data-driven non-linear force-free field (NLFFF) models of observed sigmoidal regions to test this idea. We measure the total and canceled fluxes in the regions from MDI magnetograms, as well as the axial and poloidal flux content of the modeled NLFFF flux ropes for three sigmoids-2007 February, 2007 December, and 2010 February. We infer that the sum of the poloidal and axial flux in the flux ropes for most models amounts to about 60%-70% of the canceled flux and 30%-50% of the total flux in the regions. The flux measurements and the analysis of the magnetic field structure show that the sigmoids first develop a strong axial field manifested as a sheared arcade and then, as flux cancellation proceeds, form long S-shaped field lines that contribute to the poloidal flux. In addition, the dips in the S-shaped field lines are located at the sites of flux cancellation that have been identified from the MDI magnetograms. We find that the line-of-sight-integrated free energy is also concentrated at these locations for all three regions, which can be liberated in the process of eruption. Flare-associated brightenings and flare loops coincide with the location of the X-line topology that develops at the site of most vigorous flux cancellation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Lift Equivalence and Cancellation for Airfoil Surge–Pitch–Plunge Oscillations

A NACA 0018 airfoil in freestream velocity is oscillated in longitudinal, transverse, and angle-of-attack directions with respect to the freestream velocity, known as surge, plunge, and pitch. The lift-based equivalence method introduces phase shifts between these three motions to construct in-phase sinusoidal components for maximum lift, waveform construction. Lift cancellation is also determined with the exact negative pitch and plunge motion amplitudes found from the equivalence method to achieve out-of-phase wave destruction. Lift cancellation occurs when a combination of these motions is sought to obtain a constant lift magnitude throughout the oscillation cycle. To achieve both equivalence and cancellation of lift, a prescribed pure pitch amplitude through the Theodorsen theory equates the corresponding equivalent plunge amplitude and pitch–plunge phase shift. These Theodorsen, linear superposition findings of pitch–plunge are leveraged toward the Greenberg theory to determine a closed-form, surge–pitch–plunge solution through the addition of a surge–plunge phase shift and optimal surge amplitude for lift cancellation. The lift cancellation surge–pitch–plunge amplitudes define the equivalence amplitude investigated here and theoretically limit the experiment to combinations of the first lift harmonic of the Greenberg theory. The analytical results are then compared with experimental lift force measurements and dye visualization. Finally, the normalized lift differences due to unsteady wake and boundary-layer behavior are examined to explore the extents of the Greenberg theory for these cases of lift-based equivalence and cancellation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The association of flares to cancelling magnetic features on the sun

Previous work relating flares to evolutionary changes of photospheric solar magnetic fields are reviewed and reinterpreted in the light of recent observations of canceling magnetic fields. The results show that cancelation happens with fields spanning a wide range of magnetic field strengths. Flares of all magnitudes begin adjacent to cancelation sites, whether the associated active region as a whole is developing or decaying. Both small and big flares are initiated near canceling sites, from the microflares associated with ephemeral regions to the kernels of the great flares. Canceling magnetic flux is observed or deduced to be the common denominator among all observed associations of flares to changing magnetic fields. It is proposed that canceling magnetic fields are a necessary evolutionary condition for the initiation of solar flares.

Livi, Silvia H. B.↗