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CALPHAD Uncertainty Quantification and TDBX

CALPHAD uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the foundation of materials design with quantified confidence. We report a framework and software packages to enable CALPHAD UQ assessment and calculation using commercial CALPHAD software (Thermo-Calc). This Bayesian inference framework is coupled with a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to establish uncertainty traces with a given thermodynamic database file (TDB) and corresponding experimental data points. This general framework is demonstrated with the Ni–Cr binary system. The algorithm is firstly validated on synthetic data with known ground truth. Then it is applied to real experimental data to generate posterior traces. We develop a file format named TDBX, which provides a single source of truth by combining the original TDB content and the traces for each assessed Gibbs energy parameter. CALPHAD UQ calculations are performed based on the TDBX file, from which uncertainties for phase boundaries, enthalpy curves, and solidification range are collected as examples of basic design parameters. This TDBX file with corresponding scripts are made open-source. Finally, the combination of CALPHAD UQ assessments and calculations connected by TDBX supports uncertainty-assisted modeling, enabling the integrated application of modern design with uncertainty methodologies to computational materials design.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Thermodynamics and its prediction and CALPHAD modeling: Review, state of the art, and perspectives

Thermodynamics is a science concerning the state of a system, whether it is stable, metastable, or unstable, when interacting with its surroundings. The combined law of thermodynamics derived by Gibbs about 150 years ago laid the foundation of thermodynamics. In Gibbs combined law, the entropy production due to internal processes was not included, and the 2nd law was thus practically removed from the Gibbs combined law, so it is only applicable to systems under equilibrium, thus commonly termed as equilibrium or Gibbs thermodynamics. Gibbs further derived the classical statistical thermodynamics in terms of the probability of configurations in a system in the later 1800's and early 1900's. With the quantum mechanics (QM) developed in 1920's, the QM-based statistical thermodynamics was established and connected to classical statistical thermodynamics at the classical limit as shown by Landau in the 1940's. In 1960's the development of density functional theory (DFT) by Kohn and co-workers enabled the QM prediction of properties of the ground state of a system. On the other hand, the entropy production due to internal processes in non-equilibrium systems was studied separately by Onsager in 1930's and Prigogine and co-workers in the 1950's. In 1960's to 1970's the digitization of thermodynamics was developed by Kaufman in the framework of the CALculation of PHAse Diagrams (CALPHAD) modeling of individual phases with internal degrees of freedom. CALPHAD modeling of thermodynamics and atomic transport properties has enabled computational design of complex materials in the last 50 years. Our recently termed zentropy theory integrates DFT and statistical mechanics through the replacement of the internal energy of each individual configuration by its DFT-predicted free energy. The zentropy theory is capable of accurately predicting the free energy of individual phases, transition temperatures and properties of magnetic and ferroelectric materials with free energies of individual configurations solely from DFT-based calculations and without fitting parameters, and is being tested for other phenomena including superconductivity, quantum criticality, and black holes. Those predictions include the singularity at critical points with divergence of physical properties, negative thermal expansion, and the strongly correlated physics. Furthermore, those individual configurations may thus be considered as the genomic building blocks of individual phases in the spirit of the materials genome®. This has the potential to shift the paradigm of CALPHAD modeling from being heavily dependent on experimental inputs to becoming fully predictive with inputs solely from DFT-based calculations and machine learning models built on those calculations and existing experimental data through newly developed and future open-source tools. Furthermore, through the combined law of thermodynamics including the internal entropy production, it is shown that the kinetic coefficient matrix of independent internal processes is diagonal with respect to the conjugate potentials in the combined law, and the cross phenomena that the phenomenological Onsager flux and reciprocal relationships are due to the dependence of the conjugate potential of a molar quantity on nonconjugate molar quantities and other potentials, which can be predicted by the zentropy theory and CALPHAD modeling.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The CALPHAD approach for HEAs: Challenges and opportunities

Phases are key microstructural features that determine material properties. The most intuitive way of representing phase stability in a material is by its phase diagram. The vastness of the composition space is the most compelling reason for investigating high-entropy alloys (HEAs), but it also creates major challenges in controlling phases and microstructures of HEAs due to lack of experimental phase diagrams in highly concentrated multicomponent space. The CALPHAD (Calculation of Phase Diagram) approach, although it needs improvements, is the only viable way to calculate multicomponent phase diagrams. The two major property databases in CALPHAD, Gibbs energy and mobility, when coupled, can provide not only the equilibrium phase information, but also information about diffusion and kinetics. In this article, we will review the use of the CALPHAD approach in understanding phase stability and diffusion in high-entropy alloys. Finally, we will discuss the notable trend of coupling the high-throughput CALPHAD approach with machine learning in HEA design.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Predicting Sintering Window of Binder Jet Additively Manufactured Parts Using a Coupled Data Analytics and CALPHAD Approach

Batch-to-batch variation in powder compositions for binder jet additive manufacturing (BJAM) can significantly deter defining an “ideal” sintering window for a given alloy. One way to overcome the problem is by running sintering experiments at various temperatures for each batch of the powder. However, such an approach increases the time required to achieve large-scale production of parts. The predictive capabilities of computational thermodynamic tools like CALPHAD can be leveraged to overcome the challenge, especially for binder jet additive manufacturing, since the process occurs under near-equilibrium conditions. However, calculating the sintering window using CALPHAD can be computationally expensive, considering many possible feedstock compositions within “specification”. Here, we generate high throughput CALPHAD data for nickel-based superalloys to develop machine learning models to predict the sintering window rapidly. The predictive capability of the models has been validated using published results on BJAM of Inconel 718 and 625. Further, validated models are lightweight and can be deployed in an industrial setting to get sintering window in an accelerated manner.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Analytical gradient-based optimization of CALPHAD model parameters

The calibration of CALPHAD (CALculation of PHAse Diagrams) models involves the solution of a very challenging high-dimensional multiobjective optimization problem. Traditional approaches to parameter fitting predominantly rely on gradient-free methods, which while robust, are computationally inefficient and often scale poorly with model complexity. In this work, we introduce and demonstrate a generalizable framework for analytic gradient-based optimization of the parameters of the CALPHAD model enabled by the recently formalized Jansson derivative technique. This method allows for efficient evaluation of gradients of thermodynamic properties at equilibrium with respect to model parameters, even in the presence of arbitrarily complex internal degrees of freedom. Leveraging these semi-analytic gradients, we employ the conjugate gradient (CG) method to optimize thermodynamic model parameters for four binary alloy systems: Cu-Mg, Fe-Ni, Cr-Ni, and Cr-Fe. Across all systems, CG achieves comparable or superior optimality relative to Bayesian ensemble Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with improvements in computational efficiency ranging from one to three orders of magnitude. Furthermore, our results establish a new paradigm for CALPHAD assessments in which high fidelity data-rich model calibration becomes tractable using deterministic gradient-informed algorithms.

CALPHAD↗

Gradient-informed Hamiltonian Monte Carlo for multicomponent CALPHAD model optimization and uncertainty quantification

CALPHAD model parameter optimization is inherently challenging due to non-smooth objective functions, high-dimensional parameter spaces, and the need for uncertainty quantification (UQ). Traditional weighted nonlinear least squares approaches are computationally efficient but local, whereas black-box global optimizers and ensemble Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods provide broader exploration at substantial computational cost. The objective of this work is to combine the global exploration capability of gradient-informed Hamiltonian Monte Carlo – specifically the No-U-Turn Sampler (NUTS) – with local deterministic refinement using BFGS to efficiently optimize multicomponent CALPHAD models with minimal manual intervention. Analytic gradients are computed via the Jansson derivative framework. The methodology is demonstrated on the Cr—Fe binary system and extended to the Cr—Fe—Ni ternary system with 32 degrees of freedom. For Cr—Fe, NUTS achieves comparable or superior optimality relative to ensemble MCMC while requiring over an order-of-magnitude fewer likelihood evaluations. Parameter uncertainties are quantified through NUTS sampling and propagated to thermodynamic observables using local expansion, demonstrating a novel modular approach that combines binary and ternary parameter subsets without requiring global relaxation. These results establish gradient-informed exploration as a scalable strategy for multicomponent CALPHAD optimization and provide a practical route towards efficient higher-order database development with quantified uncertainty.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

CALPHAD modeling of uranium nitride (UN) fabrication routes enabled by first-principles calculations

The thermochemical details of fabricating uranium nitride (UN) by ammonolysis of uranium tetraflouride (UF 4 ) were determined using density functional theory (DFT) and CALculation of PHAse Diagrams (CALPHAD) computational methods. The thermochemical data of all binary, ternary, and quaternary U-H-N-F phases were computed using DFT, and the data for the phases that have not been measured experimentally, including UN 2 and NH 4 F(g), were combined with existing experimentally-determined data for CALPHAD modeling. The DFT data were benchmarked using experimental Gibbs energy of reaction and experimental thermochemical data for individual species. Phase diagrams relevant to the ammonolysis reaction are depicted, showing regions of stability for solid U-N, U-F and U-N-F phases. An unidentified phase produced in a previous experiment was identified as UN 0.95 F 1.2 (UNF) by comparing its X-ray diffraction spectrum to the experimental spectrum, and its formation during the fabrication of UN from UF 4 is supported by the simulated phase diagram. Here, it is calculated that UN 2 can be produced by the ammonolysis of UF 4 , but requires elevated temperatures, high NH 3 (g) partial pressure, and large amounts of flowing NH 3 (g) to avoid solid flu oride impurities in the uranium nitride. Likewise, U 2 N 3 can be produced instead at temperatures greater than 980 K. The use of silane (SiH 4 ) gas was investigated as a potential additive in the ammonolysis fabrication route to speed removal of fluorine. The addition of SiH 4 (g) offers little advantage to the removal of fluorine, and adds the complication of Si 3 N 4 formation. The use of DFT to fill in missing data to perform CALPHAD calculations demonstrated here allows for the determination of more comprehensive and trustworthy phase diagrams than the use of existing experimental data alone.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Predictive modeling of Néel temperature in austenitic alloys using CALPHAD and data analytics

The Néel temperature is a crucial yet often overlooked parameter in calculating the stacking fault energy (SFE) of austenitic alloys. Several empirical equations have been proposed to estimate the Néel temperature of austenitic alloys, which are then used to calculate the SFE and explain deformation mechanisms. However, these empirical equations, typically derived using linear regression algorithms, are often simplistic and may fail to capture the complex interactions among multiple alloying elements that influence the Néel temperature. Moreover, their applicability is usually limited to specific compositional ranges. In this study, we propose a CALPHAD based approach and develop a surrogate decision tree based regression model capable of capturing the interactions among multiple alloying elements to predict the Néel temperature. Predictions from both the CALPHAD approach and the regression model show close agreement with experimental measurements reported in the literature. In conclusion, the implications of accurate Néel temperature predictions on the calculated SFE and deformation mechanisms are also discussed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

LASSO for CALPHAD Model Selection Enables Data-Efficient Thermodynamic Modeling: An Application in Thermochemical Hydrogen Production Materials

Phenomenological CALPHAD (CALculation of PHAse Diagrams) models, widely used for multicomponent materials, often contain a considerable number of parameters and require fitting using data from a relatively small number of experimental measurements or theoretical calculations. Sometimes these parameters are introduced for the purpose of improving model fits but without clear physical justification, which leads to overparametrized models with poor generalization performance. Automated approaches for optimal model selection based on the available data therefore become critical. Here, in this work, a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO)-based approach is developed for model selection by leveraging the linearity of the CALPHAD model with respect to its parameters to convert the model selection and fitting to a LASSO minimization problem. We demonstrate its utility for thermodynamic modeling of thermochemical hydrogen (TCH) production materials using lanthanum strontium manganite (LSM) as an example. Various TCH-relevant properties, including oxygen stoichiometry as a function of oxygen partial pressure, enthalpy of reduction, and entropy of reduction, are successfully predicted with reasonable accuracy using a minimal set of model parameters. Importantly, the model selection and fitting involve minimal human decision; it can therefore be applied to high-throughput DFT defect calculations and yield efficient workflows for TCH material modeling and optimization.

CALPHAD↗

Revisit the VEC rule in high entropy alloys (HEAs) with high-throughput CALPHAD approach and its applications for material design-A case study with Al–Co–Cr–Fe–Ni system

Valence electron concentration (VEC) was treated as a useful parameter to predict solid solution phases, and the VEC rule was proposed for high entropy alloys (HEAs). However, this empirical rule has its limitations, which restricts its applications for phase predictions in HEAs. In this paper, we revisited the empirical VEC rule with the HT-CALPHAD approach in the Al–Co–Cr–Fe–Ni system. Our investigation showed that more than 90% compositions are observed to have BCC structures when 5.7≤VEC≤7.2 and we got 100% FCC structures when VEC≥8.4. Meanwhile, we proposed a data screening procedure to classify and discover the new HEAs. The concepts of average density (ρHEA), highest BCC/FCC temperatures ($T$ $^{max}_{BCC/FCC}$), and temperature ranges (ΔT BCC/FCC ) were introduced as useful data screening criteria to down-screen the candidate alloy compositions for specific engineering applications. In the current work, we have identified three HEA categories (refractory BCC HEAs, light-weight BCC HEA and refractory FCC HEAs) in the Al–Co–Cr–Fe–Ni system and proposed the best candidate in each group. Here, our investigation showed the HEA non-equiatomic composition space provides ample opportunities for the discovery of the next-generation HEAs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Thermodynamic properties of the Nd-Bi system via emf measurements, $\mathrm{DFT}$ calculations, machine learning, and $\mathrm{CALPHAD}$ modeling

Thermodynamic properties of the Nd-Bi system were investigated using a combination of experimental measurements, first-principles calculations based on density functional theory (DFT), data mining and machine learning (DM + ML) predictions, and calculation of phase diagrams (CALPHAD) modeling. The electromotive force (emf) of Nd-Bi alloys in molten LiCl-KCl-NdCl 3 at 773–973 K was measured via coulometric titration of Nd into Bi for the determination of thermochemical properties such as activity coefficients and solubilities of Nd in Bi. A new peritectic reaction of [liquid + NdBi 2 = Nd 3 Bi 7 ] at 774 K was confirmed using differential scanning calorimetry, structural (X-ray diffraction), and microstructural (scanning electron microscopy) analyses. The unknown crystal structure of NdBi2 was suggested to be a mixture of the anti-La 2 Sb configuration and the La 2 Te-type configuration based on ML predictions for over 26,000 data-mined AB 2 -type configurations together with DFT-based verifications. Using the newly acquired experimental data and DFT-based calculations, the thermodynamic description of the Nd-Bi system was remodeled, and a more complete Nd-Bi phase diagram was calculated, including the Nd 3 Bi 7 compound, invariant transition reactions, and liquidus temperatures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A CALPHAD-informed approach to modeling constituent redistribution in Zr-based metallic fuels using BISON

Here, a CALPHAD-informed (Computer Coupling of Phase Diagrams and Thermochemistry) constituent redistribution model was developed for Zr-based metallic fuels and incorporated into the BISON fuel performance code. Three uncertain model parameters associated with β and γ phase kinetics were calibrated using integral test data from U-Zr fuel elements irradiated in Experimental Breeder Reactor II. The calibrated constituent redistribution model was shown to predict the behavior of U-Zr fuels with excellent accuracy. Model predictions for U-Pu-Zr fuels were physically reasonable but less accurate. Reduction of uncertainties in the ternary phase transition temperatures and collection of kinetic data for the ζ phase are expected to improve the model’s ternary predictions. Finally, the new model was coupled to existing thermomechanics models in BISON to simulate irradiation of an entire U-Zr fuel element, demonstrating its ability to accurately predict the behavior of U-Zr fuels with realistic geometries and mesh resolutions at the engineering scale.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Predicting sintering window during supersolidus liquid phase sintering of steels using feedstock analysis and CALPHAD

Binder jet 3D printing results in carbon pickup from the binder at the inter-particle regions during binder burnout. The excess carbon lowers the solidus temperature of the green part locally during supersolidus liquid phase sintering (SLPS). Currently, thermodynamic calculations rely on the use of bulk powder compositions to predict the sintering window. This can overestimate the sintering temperature since the local increase in carbon on powder surfaces is not accounted for, that can locally lower the solidus temperature during SLPS. Here we show that using the inputs from feedstock and binder analysis, the excess carbon and hence the sintering window for the alloy can be predicted using CALPHAD. We present a case study on applying the proposed approach for pressureless sintering of binder jet additive manufactured (BJAM) of H13 steel via SLPS.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

CALPHAD-based ICME design of single-step aging to enhance mechanical strength of WAAM Haynes 282

To match the strength of wire-arc additive manufactured Haynes 282 to its wrought counterpart via a single-step aging heat treatment, the CALPHAD (Calculation of Phase Diagrams) method is integrated with physics-based process-structure-property models and experimental validation. The integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) framework simulates the effects of aging on γ′ and M 23 C 6 precipitation and the resulting yield strength. To improve simulation reliability, the interfacial energies between γ/γ′ and γ/M 23 C 6 carbides were estimated by comparison with precipitation kinetic modeling and measured precipitate sizes. γ′ and M23C6 were found to precipitate simultaneously between 640 and 860 °C, producing microstructures similar to those produced by two-step aging. The optimal γ′ size for peak yield stress was calculated to be 20–23 nm. WAAM Haynes 282 aged at 780 °C for 50 h exceeded the mechanical performance of its wrought counterpart subjected to two-step aging, though desired properties can also be achieved at 800 °C for 16 h or less. The error in yield strength is less than 20 MPa, demonstrating good agreement between the modeling framework and experiments. Creep studies showed that WAAM Haynes 282 exceeded the calculated rupture time, reaching 481 h. This proposed methodology can accelerate the design of aging heat treatments for any γ′-strengthened nickel-base alloy, minimizing the resources required for trial-and-error experiments.

CALPHAD↗

MaterialsMap: A CALPHAD-based tool to design composition pathways through feasibility map for desired dissimilar materials, demonstrated with resistance spot welding joining of Ag-Al-Cu

Assembly of dissimilar metals can be achieved by different methods, for example, casting, welding, and additive manufacturing (AM). However, undesired phases formed in liquid-phase assembling processes due to solute segregation during solidification diminish mechanical and other properties of the processed parts. In the present work, an open-source software named MaterialsMap, has been developed based on the CALculation of Phase Diagrams (CALPHAD) approach. The primary objective of MaterialsMap is to facilitate the design of an optimal composition pathway for assembling dissimilar alloys with liquid-phases based on the formation of desired and undesired phases along the pathway. In MaterialsMap, equilibrium thermodynamic calculations are used to predict equilibrium phases formed at slow cooling rate, while Scheil-Gulliver simulations are employed to predict non-equilibrium phases formed during rapid cooling. Additionally, by combining these two simulations, MaterialsMap offers a thorough guide for understanding phase formation in various manufacturing processes, assisting users in making informed decisions during material selection and production. As a demonstration of this approach, a compositional pathway was designed from pure Al to pure Cu through Ag using MaterialsMap. The design was experimentally verified using resistance spot welding (RSW).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Predicting the High-Temperature Oxidation Response of Nickel Superalloys Using CALPHAD-Enhanced Machine Learning

Structural materials such as Ni-based superalloys used in high-temperature power cycles are routinely exposed to toxic environments including high temperature and pressure, aqueous and gas corrosion, etc. Here, we present a physics-informed machine learning approach to predict the oxidation response of diverse Ni-superalloys. First, a high-fidelity experimental dataset is curated from typical oxidation mass-change experiments in air, covering 25+ elements and different physical behavior such as parabolic growth, non-parabolic growth, and oxide spallation. Second, the dataset is featurized using thermophysical, chemical, and mechanical properties obtained from high-throughput CALPHAD calculations. Third, several machine learning models are developed to identify key features related to mass-change characteristics and model the mass-change curve for various alloys. Finally, the model is deployed to rapidly screen over a new composition space and down-select candidate alloys with high oxidation resistance for experimental validation.

CALPHAD↗

Evaluation of Tungsten—Steel Solid-State Bonding: Options and the Role of CALPHAD to Screen Diffusion Bonding Interlayers

Critical aspects of innovative design in engineering disciplines like infrastructure, transportation, and medical applications require the joining of dissimilar materials. This study investigates the literature on solid-state bonding techniques, with a particular focus on diffusion bonding, as an effective method for establishing engineering bonds. Welding and brazing, while widely used, may pose challenges when joining materials with large differences in melting temperature and can lead to mechanical property degradation. In contrast, diffusion bonding offers a lower temperature process that relies on solid-state interactions to develop bond strength. The joining of tungsten and steel, especially for fusion reactors, presents a unique challenge due to the significant disparity in melting temperatures and the propensity to form brittle intermetallics. Here, diffusion characteristics of tungsten–steel interfaces are examined and the influence of bonding parameters on mechanical properties are investigated. Additionally, CALPHAD modeling is employed to explore joining parameters, thermal stability, and diffusion kinetics. The insights from this research can be extended to join numerous dissimilar materials for specific applications such as aerospace, automobile industry, power plants, etc., enabling advanced and robust design with high efficiency.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Probing phase stability in CrMoNbV using cluster expansion method, CALPHAD calculations and experiments

High entropy alloys (HEA), a novel class of materials with multiple principal elements, allow us to tune the properties within a wide composition range where the solid-solution phase is stable. However, it is difficult to experimentally determine the boundaries of the single-phase region. In this paper, we calculate the phase diagram of the CrMoNbV quaternary system, as well as its constituent binary and ternary subsystems, using a combination of the cluster expansion method and CALPHAD calculations. We further verify these results by carrying out experiments at two different compositions of the full quaternary system. Furthermore, our work shows how these computational tools can enable efficient discovery and development of new HEAs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗