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Hand Calculation Methods for Nuclear Criticality Safety

This primer provides an overview of the most common hand calculation methods used for criticality safety calculations. The most widely used tools available to a nuclear criticality safety (NCS) practitioner are probably the common Monte Carlo or deterministic criticality safety codes, which can be used to model very complex systems. However, use of these codes can obscure the parameters to which a particular fissile system may be sensitive, whereas the hand calculation methods can be used to delve into the ways each parameter may affect the reactivity of a fissile material system. Furthermore, practitioners must avoid using computer codes as devices that take inputs and simply provide outputs (i.e., a “black box”). Many years ago, pioneers such as Joe Thomas, David Smith, and Hugh Paxton, among others in the field of nuclear criticality safety, took the time before the advent of high-speed desktop computers to create simple hand methods for criticality safety analyses. Some of the methods can be used for single fissile units; others are applicable to fissile units arranged into simple array configurations. This primer discusses the applicability of the various methods, illustrates how they are used, and provides an interpretation of the various results. The NCS practitioner will need to spend time to master the methods that could be most useful; however, they can provide the practitioner with fast and accurate answers to criticality safety problems if they are used correctly and if critical data exist for the problem at hand. Hand calculation methods can be used as a starting point for more advanced calculations, and in many circumstances, they can provide sensitivity and perturbation information more quickly than using a criticality code.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Comparison of the Baseline USL Calculation Methods for Loosely-Coupled and Novel Neutronic Systems [Slides]

Current work includes reconstructing 187-group ENDF B/VII.1 covariance matrix for comparison study to 44-group ENDF B/VII.1 matrix to determine how covariance matrix structures affect the USL calculations and investigating the exact domination mechanism of region-wise sensitivities in a loosely-coupled system. Future work will involve seeking to understand how bias distributions change with reactivity and how to calculate propagate distribution error into USL calculations, as well as how cross section perturbation studies can be extended to other types of calculations, such as shielding calculations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Generating Older Adult Multimorbidity Trajectories Using Various Comorbidity Indices and Calculation Methods

Older adult multimorbidity trajectories are helpful for understanding the current and future health patterns of aging populations. The construction of multimorbidity trajectories from comorbidity index scores will help inform public health and clinical interventions targeting those individuals that are on unhealthy trajectories. Investigators have used many different techniques when creating multimorbidity trajectories in prior literature, and no standard way has emerged. This study compares and contrasts multimorbidity trajectories constructed from various methods. We describe the difference between aging trajectories constructed with the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and Elixhauser Comorbidity Index (ECI). We also explore the differences between acute (single year) and chronic (cumulative) derivations of CCI and ECI scores. Social determinants of health can affect disease burden over time; thus, our models include income, race/ethnicity, and sex differences. We use group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM) to estimate multimorbidity trajectories for 86,909 individuals aged 66–75 in 1992 using Medicare claims data collected over the following 21 years. We identify low-chronic disease and high-chronic disease trajectories in all 8 generated trajectory models. Additionally, all 8 models satisfied prior established statistical diagnostic criteria for well-performing GBTM models. Clinicians may use these trajectories to identify patients on an unhealthy path and prompt a possible intervention that may shift the patient to a healthier trajectory.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Methods to Calculate Electronic Excited-State Dynamics for Molecules on Large Metal Clusters with Many States: Ensuring Fast Overlap Calculations and a Robust Choice of Phase

Here, we present an efficient set of methods for propagating excited-state dynamics involving a large number of configuration interaction singles (CIS) or Tamm-Dancoff approximation (TDA) single-reference excited states. Specifically, (i) following Head-Gordon et al., we implement an exact evaluation of the overlap of singly-excited CIS/TDA electronic states at different nuclear geometries using a biorthogonal basis and (ii) we employ a unified protocol for choosing the correct phase for each adiabat at each geometry. For many-electron systems, the combination of these techniques significantly reduces the computational cost of integrating the electronic Schrodinger equation and imposes minimal overhead on top of the underlying electronic structure calculation. As a demonstration, we calculate the electronic excited-state dynamics for a hydrogen molecule scattering off a silver metal cluster, focusing on high-lying excited states, where many electrons can be excited collectively and crossings are plentiful. Interestingly, we find that the high-lying, plasmon-like collective excitation spectrum changes with nuclear dynamics, highlighting the need to simulate non-adiabatic nuclear dynamics and plasmonic excitations simultaneously. In the future, the combination of methods presented here should help theorists build a mechanistic understanding of plasmon-assisted charge transfer and excitation energy relaxation processes near a nanoparticle or metal surface.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Standardising the “Gregory method” for calculating equilibrium climate sensitivity

The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) – the equilibrium global mean temperature response to a doubling of atmospheric CO 2 – is a high-profile metric for quantifying the Earth system's response to human-induced climate change. A widely applied approach to estimating the ECS is the “Gregory method” (Gregory et al., 2004), which uses an ordinary least squares (OLS) regression between the net radiative flux, N, and surface air temperature anomalies, ΔT, from a 150 year experiment in which atmospheric CO 2 concentrations are quadrupled. The ECS is determined by extrapolating the linear fit to N=0, i.e. the ΔT-intercept, indicating the point at which the system is back in equilibrium. This method has been used to compare ECS estimates across the CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensembles and will likely be a key diagnostic for CMIP7. Despite its widespread application, there is little consistency or transparency between studies in how the climate model data is processed prior to the regression, leading to potential discrepancies in ECS estimates. We identify 32 alternative data processing pathways, varying by differences in global mean weighting, net radiative flux variable, anomaly calculation method, and linear regression fit. Using 44 CMIP6 models, we systematically assess the impact of these choices on ECS estimates and calculate uncertainty ranges using two bootstrap approaches. While the inter-model ECS range is insensitive to the data processing pathway, individual outlier models exhibit notable differences. Approximating a model's native grid cell area (if irregular) with cosine of the latitude can decrease the ECS by 11 %, the choice of N-variable can change the ECS by 6 %, and some anomaly calculation methods can introduce spurious temporal correlations in the processed data. Beyond data processing choices, we also evaluate an alternative linear regression method – total least squares (TLS) – which has a more statistically robust basis than OLS. However, for consistency with previous literature, and given TLS may reduce the ECS compared to OLS (by up to 24 %), thereby making a known bias in the Gregory method worse, we do not feel there is sufficient clarity to recommend a transition to TLS in all cases. To improve reproducibility and comparability in future studies, we recommend a standardised Gregory method: weighting the global mean by cell area, using the top of the atmosphere (as opposed to the top of model) N-variable, and calculating anomalies by first applying a rolling average to the preindustrial control timeseries then subtracting from the raw CO 2 quadrupling experiment. This approach accounts for model drift while reducing noise in the data to best meet the pre-conditions of the linear regression. While CMIP6 results of the multi-model mean ECS appear insensitive to these processing choices, similar assumptions may not hold for CMIP7, underscoring the need for standardised data preparation in future climate sensitivity assessments.

Geosciences↗

Demonstrating Computational Equivalence Between Continuous and Discrete Adjoint Methods by Calculating Time-Dependent Adjoint Solutions with Neutron Diffusion Models

The continuous adjoint method and the discrete adjoint method are two alternative approaches used to calculate adjoint solutions for adjoint systems. The continuous adjoint method derives adjoint equations analytically from continuous forward equations and then solves the adjoint equations either analytically or numerically in a discretized form whereas the discrete adjoint method calculates the adjoint solutions directly from the discretized forward equations. With regard to the methodology development and calculation procedure, distinct differences are well recognized between the two methods. For certain reasons, both methods are exclusively preferred and commonly used by different computational communities, but limited studies clarify the connections between the two adjoint methods from either of the communities. Herein, this paper demonstrates the computational equivalence between the continuous and discrete adjoint methods by investigating time-dependent adjoint solutions to the two-group neutron diffusion model in nuclear reactor analysis problems using both methods. Adjoint solutions can be used to estimate system parameters for reactor safety analysis. Appropriate final state conditions for the adjoint systems are specified in both of the methods, and the conditions are clarified with proper physical explanations. With the help of an event-based case study on neutron diffusion models, the accuracy of the time-dependent adjoint fluxes obtained from both methods is verified, and the pros and cons of both adjoint methods are examined. More importantly, the computational equivalence of both methods is demonstrated when they are applied to multigroup neutron diffusion systems. The advantage of calculating time-dependent adjoint fluxes by directly solving time-dependent adjoint systems rather than taking steady-state approximations as in common practice is also demonstrated.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Hand Calculations for Nuclear Criticality Safety – Primer Revision

The document “ Hand Calculation Methods for Criticality Safety – A Primer, ” was published by the authors (Los Alamos National Laboratory report LA-14244-M) in December 2006 to provide an overview of the most common hand calculation methods used for criticality safety analysis. Hand calculation methods can be used as a starting point for more advanced calculations, and in many circumstances, they can provide sensitivity and perturbation information quicker than using a criticality code, such as KENO or MCNP. This report has been revised to augment existing basis information and example problems for each of the methods discussed: 1-group and modified 1- group diffusion theory, core-density conversions, buckling conversions, limiting surface density method, density analog method, surface density method, and solid angle method. This primer discusses the applicability of the various methods, illustrates how they are used, and provides an interpretation of the example problem results. The example problems provided are simple, practical problems, and the reference data to solve each example problem is provided. This paper will provide an overview of the Primer revision and how it can be useful for new Nuclear Criticality Safety practitioners.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Hand Calculations for Nuclear Criticality Safety — Primer Revision [Abstract]

The document “ Hand Calculation Methods for Criticality Safety –A Primer, ” was published by the authors (Los Alamos National Laboratory report LA-14244-M) in December 2006 to provide an overview of the most common hand calculation methods used for criticality safety analysis. Hand calculation methods can be used as a starting point for more advanced calculations, and in many circumstances, they can provide sensitivity and perturbation information quicker than using a criticality code, such as KENO or MCNP. This report has been revised to augment existing basis information and example problems for each of the methods discussed: 1-group and modified 1-group diffusion theory, core-density conversions, buckling conversions, limiting surface density method, density analog method, surface density method, and solid angle method. This primer discusses the applicability of the various methods, illustrates how they are used, and provides an interpretation of the example problem results. The example problems provided are simple, practical problems, and the reference data to solve each example problem is provided. This paper will provide an overview of the Primer revision and how it can be useful for new Nuclear Criticality Safety practitioners.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

A new approach for resonance treatment of doubly heterogeneous fuel using the RSE method

A new resonance calculation method for the doubly-heterogeneous (DH) fuels such as high- temperature gas-cooled reactor fuel is proposed based on the resonance calculation based on Spectral Expansion (RSE) method. The concept of pointwise disadvantage factor for fuel grain is taken into account to treat the DH fuels. The verification calculation is carried out for simplified single fuel cell and fuel compact consisting of five fuel cells and graphite moderator. The calculation results indicate that the present method can appropriately handle the space- dependent self-shielding effect for DH fuels. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Probing phase stability in CrMoNbV using cluster expansion method, CALPHAD calculations and experiments

High entropy alloys (HEA), a novel class of materials with multiple principal elements, allow us to tune the properties within a wide composition range where the solid-solution phase is stable. However, it is difficult to experimentally determine the boundaries of the single-phase region. In this paper, we calculate the phase diagram of the CrMoNbV quaternary system, as well as its constituent binary and ternary subsystems, using a combination of the cluster expansion method and CALPHAD calculations. We further verify these results by carrying out experiments at two different compositions of the full quaternary system. Furthermore, our work shows how these computational tools can enable efficient discovery and development of new HEAs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The Henkin-McGill critical temperature test for explosives revisited: An overview of historical and modern method development

Many overarching standards, regulations, or other requirements necessitate that the critical temperature (T crit ) of an energetic material be known or estimate prior to operations such as heating. However, they rarely, if ever, provide a specific method for doing so. While other methods exist to calculate T crit , such as the Frank-Kamenetskii equation, computer simulation, etc., these cannot be readily utilized for energetics that are physical mixtures (i.e. most pyrotechnics) or materials where detailed material properties required for such calculations are lacking. Here, in this study, a COTS (commercial off-the-shelf) SBAT (Simulated Bulk Auto-ignition Test) apparatus is modified to perform Henkin cookoff tests. This creates a simple, efficient, and cost-effective solution to estimate required T crit values for energetic materials. After a historical overview of the evolution of the Henkin test, several common energetic materials (PETN, RDX, etc.) for which T crit has been readily calculated, and historical data is available, were analyzed for comparison and verification purposes. This was followed by a variety of pyrotechnic mixtures and other materials to where calculation methods cannot be readily used. The modified apparatus, as well as an updated sample shell sealing method, produced results that aligned well with historical data. It also produced reasonable T crit estimates for those materials where the Frank-Kamenetskii equation cannot be applied.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Method for calculating radon activity and radon rejection using a beta-gamma detector

Radon interferes with concentration measurements used by atmospheric radioxenon systems. We demonstrate a method to quantify the amount of radon that is present in the detectors, the impact of radon activity on the minimum-detectable-concentrations, and how to determine the needed radon rejection levels. An example calculation shows a radon rejection level of 10 5 is sufficient to limit impact on the detector sensitivity. We anticipate this method will give analysist a better understanding of radon present in their measurements and allow system designers to tailor their systems’ radon rejection better for its location.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

A Better Method to Calculate Fuel Burnup in Pebble Bed Reactors Using Machine Learning

Burnup measurement is an important step in material control and accountancy (MC&A) at nuclear reactors, and may be done by examining gamma spectra of fuel samples. Traditional approaches rely on known correlations to specific photopeaks (e.g. 137 Cs) and operate via a standard linear regression method. However, the quality of these regression methods is limited even in the best case, and is significantly poorer at short fuel cool-down times, due to the elevated radiation background by short life-time isotopes, and self-shielding effect of the fuel. For practical operation of pebble bed reactors (PBRs), quick measurements (in minutes) and short cooling times (in hours) are required from a safety and security perspective. We investigated the efficacy and performance of machine learning (ML) methods to predict the burnup of the pebble fuel from full gamma spectra (rather than specific discrete photopeaks) and found a full-spectrum ML approach to far outperform baseline regression predictions in all measurement and cooling conditions - including in operational-like measurement conditions. We also performed model and data ablation experiments to determine the relative performance impact of our ML methods' capacity to model data nonlinearities and the inherent additional information in full spectra. Applying our ML methods, we found a number of surprising results, including improved accuracy at shorter fuel cooling times (the opposite of the norm), remarkable robustness to spectrum compression (via rebinning), and competitive burnup predictions even when using background signal only (i.e. explicitly omitting known isotope photopeaks).

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

An introduction to Spent Nuclear Fuel decay heat for Light Water Reactors: a review from the NEA WPNCS

This paper summarized the efforts performed to understand decay heat estimation from existing spent nuclear fuel (SNF), under the auspices of the Working Party on Nuclear Criticality Safety (WPNCS) of the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency. Needs for precise estimations are related to safety, cost, and optimization of SNF handling, storage, and repository. The physical origins of decay heat (a more correct denomination would be decay power) are then introduced, to identify its main contributors (fission products and actinides) and time-dependent evolution. Due to limited absolute prediction capabilities, experimental information is crucial; measurement facilities and methods are then presented, highlighting both their relevance and our need for maintaining the unique current full-scale facility and developing new ones. The third part of this report is dedicated to the computational aspect of the decay heat estimation: calculation methods, codes, and validation. Different approaches and implementations currently exist for these three aspects, directly impacting our capabilities to predict decay heat and to inform decision-makers. Finally, recommendations from the expert community are proposed, potentially guiding future experimental and computational developments. One of the most important outcomes of this work is the consensus among participants on the need to reduce biases and uncertainties for the estimated SNF decay heat. If it is agreed that uncertainties (being one standard deviation) are on average small (less than a few percent), they still substantially impact various applications when one needs to consider up to three standard deviations, thus covering more than 95% of cases. The second main finding is the need of new decay heat measurements and validation for cases corresponding to more modern fuel characteristics: higher initial enrichment, higher average burnup, as well as shorter and longer cooling time. Similar needs exist for fuel types without public experimental data, such as MOX, VVER, or CANDU fuels. A third outcome is related to SNF assemblies for which no direct validation can be performed, representing the vast majority of cases (due to the large number of SNF assemblies currently stored, or too short or too long cooling periods of interest). A few solutions are possible, depending on the application. For the final repository, systematic measurements of quantities related to decay heat can be performed, such as neutron or gamma emission. This would provide indications of the SNF decay heat at the time of encapsulation. For other applications (short- or long-term cooling), the community would benefit from applying consistent and accepted recommendations on calculation methods, for both decay heat and uncertainties. This would improve the understanding of the results and make comparisons easier.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Loop current fluctuations and quantum critical transport

We study electrical transport at quantum critical points (QCPs) associated with loop current ordering in a metal, focusing specifically on models of the “Hertz-Millis” type. At the infrared (IR) fixed point and in the absence of disorder, the simplest such models have infinite DC conductivity and zero incoherent conductivity at nonzero frequencies. However, we find that a particular deformation, involving N N species of bosons and fermions with random couplings in flavor space, admits a finite incoherent, frequency-dependent conductivity at the IR fixed point, \sigma(\omega>0)\sim\omega^{-2/z} σ ( ω > 0 ) ∼ ω − 2 / z , where z z is the boson dynamical exponent. Leveraging the non-perturbative structure of quantum anomalies, we develop a powerful calculational method for transport. The resulting "anomaly-assisted large N N expansion" allows us to extract the conductivity systematically. Although our results imply that such random-flavor models are problematic as a description of the physical N = 1 N = 1 system, they serve to illustrate some general conditions for quantum critical transport as well as the anomaly-assisted calculational methods. In addition, we revisit an old result that irrelevant operators generate a frequency-dependent conductivity, \sigma(\omega>0) \sim \omega^{-2(z-2)/z} σ ( ω > 0 ) ∼ ω − 2 ( z − 2 ) / z , in problems of this kind. We show explicitly, within the scope of the original calculation, that this result does not hold for any order parameter.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Centrifuge modeling and numerical analysis on lateral performance of mono-bucket foundation for offshore wind turbines

The lateral loading performance of the mono-bucket foundation for offshore wind turbines is investigated in this study through a series of centrifuge tests and numerical analysis. Six mono-bucket models are considered to assess the influences of aspect ratio under the ultimate condition. The FE model is validated against the centrifuge test results, and the failure mechanism of the foundation is revealed. The parametric study and sensitivity analysis of the soil parameters are performed in the numerical simulations. A modified theoretical calculation method is proposed to estimate the ultimate lateral capacity of the suction bucket foundation by solving the limit equilibrium equations. A correction term is added in the calculation using the “m” method. The position of the rotation center is calculated, demonstrating a better accuracy compared to the previously reported geometric method. The modified calculation method is verified against the field test, the centrifuge test, and the laboratory test. The method is proved to be applicable in estimating the lateral performance of the mono-bucket foundation in a general form. Finally, this study aims to provide well-documented data and design references for practical engineers.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Lattice dynamics of high-pressure hydrides studied by inelastic neutron scattering

Due to the small mass and anomalously large neutron scattering cross-section of proton (about 80 barns compared to a few barns for other nuclei), inelastic neutron scattering is considered as one of the most effective tools in studying optical vibrations of hydrogen atoms in metal hydrides. The current review is focused on the binary hydrides of 3d- and 4d-metals of groups VI–VIII, which were produced at high hydrogen pressures of several gigapascals in relatively large quantities of hundreds of mg, quenched to low temperature and studied by INS ex situ at ambient pressure with high statistical accuracy. One of the unusual effects revealed by INS is a strong increase in the strength of the metal-hydrogen interactions with decreasing atomic number of the d-metal accompanied by an increase in the Me-H distance. Based on the available experimental results, the spectra g(E) of the phonon density of states and temperature dependencies CV(T) of the heat capacity at constant volume at T up to 1000 K have been derived in this paper and presented both in the figures and in digital form. This provides the reference data for the theoretical investigations of the crystal structures and compositions of new practically important hydrides giving the opportunity to validate calculation methods by comparing the calculated g(E) and CV(T) with the accurate experimental dependencies for the binary hydrides. Recent INS studies showed [R.A. Klein et al., J. Alloy. Compd. 894 (2022) 162381] that the fingerprints of anomalously short H-H separations of 1.6 Å violating the “2 Å rule” can be easily and unambiguously identified in the complex INS spectra of quaternary hydrides (La,Ce)NiInH 1+x . This makes neutron spectroscopy an attractive means for obtaining valuable data in the search for novel hydrides with a record high hydrogen capacity.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗