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Big-Data Analytics for Electric Grid and Demand-Side Management
This report describes research to characterize the status of, and trends in, big-data analytics for the electricity grid. The research focused on 1) identifying power-grid big-data sources, types, and characteristics; and 2) characterizing big-data architecture, analytic methods, technology applications, and challenges. The first part of this report describes the main sources and characteristics of big data for the smart grid and comprehensively reviews big-data architecture, technologies, and applications in the power sector. The second part of this report presents case studies of big data applications in the power industry: (1) a smart-meter data and predictive analytics method for demand response (DR), (2) synchrophasor data analytics for the distribution grid, and (3) utility data for peak-demand management. For the predictive analytics case study, smart-meter-data-driven and physical models were developed to predict the potential kilowatt (kW) capacity reduction from DR. The DR estimation framework that was developed works for both small and large-scale customers. The synchrophasor case study demonstrates use of an algorithm applied to time-series data to detect events that appear as significant changes, known as “edges,” in voltage magnitude measurements. The synchrophasor case study also introduces an approach for clustering sets of events to reveal unique features that distinguish them (e.g., distinguishing capacitor bank switching from transformer tap changes). The peak-demand management case study describes the use of the data analytics to enable DR programs to limit forecasted peak demand, resulting in cost savings to the utility. The findings from the research described in this report support identification of opportunities and technologies for big-data and analytics applications for demand-side management in the power sector as well as other approaches to modernizing the electricity grid.
Discretely Charged Dark Matter in Inflation Models Based on Holographic Space-Time
The holographic space-time (HST) model of inflation has a potential explanation for dark matter as tiny primordial black holes. Motivated by a recent paper of Barrau, we propose a version of this model where some of the inflationary black holes (IBHs), whose decay gives rise to the Hot Big Bang, carry the smallest value of a discrete symmetry charge. The fraction f of IBHs carrying this charge is difficult to estimate from first principles, but we determine it by requiring that the crossover between radiation and matter domination occurs at the correct temperature T eq ~ 1eV=10 –28 M P . The fraction is small, f ~ 2×10 –9 , so we believe this gives an extremely plausible model of dark matter.
Sensitivity of Next-Generation CMB Surveys to Neutrinos and Other Light Relics
Neutrinos and other light relics leave characteristic imprints in the cosmic microwave background anisotropies, making their observation a sensitive probe of the particle content and thermal history of the early universe. The energy density in these relativistic species is parameterized by their effective number $N_\mathrm{eff}$. Measuring this parameter at the percent level, which is a long-standing science goal of CMB-S4 and other experiments, would test a wide range of well-motivated physics within and beyond the Standard Model of particle physics. In this paper, we present Fisher-matrix forecasts of the projected sensitivity to $N_\mathrm{eff}$ of several CMB-S4 survey configurations considered during its extensive design phase. The conceptual design reaches $σ(N_\mathrm{eff}) < 0.03$ over its seven-year observing period, while the revised configuration achieves the same precision over a longer timescale. We complement these results with a cosmic-variance-limited survey over the same multipole range to quantify the room for improvement accessible with additional instrumental, observational, and theoretical efforts. Finally, we discuss the broad implications of precise $N_\mathrm{eff}$ measurements for the radiation sector, big bang nucleosynthesis, light thermal relics, and other early-universe physics. The forecasts presented in this work are performed with the publicly released DRAFT (Dark Radiation Anisotropy Flowdown Team) tool. It provides an end-to-end pipeline from simulated foreground maps and component separation to delensing and projected sensitivities for any cosmological parameter, and it can be directly applied to other cosmic microwave background survey designs.
Facility Cybersecurity Framework Best Practices
Federal facilities are increasingly adopting automation and connecting to the Internet creating an energy-internet-of-things environment that converges operational technology (OT) and information technology (IT). Today's buildings increasingly weave together networked sensors and cyber and physical systems that enable data to be collected, aggregated, exchanged, stored and monetized in new ways. Building technological advances have created new energy technology, services, markets and value creation opportunities (e.g. transactive energy, two-way grid communications, machine learning, and increased use of renewable and distributed energy resources). But as larger data sets are being exchanged at faster speeds between an increasing number of OT systems, it becomes more difficult to protect the security of the data lifecycle and the physical equipment it interacts with. These challenges are especially difficult to overcome because the economic and environmental gain (interoperability, big data, social networks and ubiquitous information sharing) are driving these prominent trends in the digital age. Often cybersecurity is an afterthought. The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP) funded the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) to develop various cybersecurity tools, trainings, and reports to aid federal facility managers – and other building owners and operators – in better applying frameworks and lessons learned from the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Cybersecurity Framework (CSF), risk management framework (RMF), DOE’s cybersecurity capability maturity model (C2M2), and a wide variety of industry best practices and guidance documents (i.e., NIST 800 series, Department of Defense United Facilities Criteria). This set of tools, collectively known as the FEMP Facility-Related Control System Cyber Toolkit (FRCS Cyber Toolkit)2, is focused on cybersecurity concerns from facility-related control systems and other operational technology (OT), such as industrial control systems (ICS). The FRCS Cyber Toolkit can be applied across six of the sixteen critical infrastructure sectors designated by the Department of Homeland Security, including government facilities, healthcare and public health, commercial facilities (e.g., public assembly, offices, lodging), financial services (e.g., banking and insurance), emergency services (e.g., fire and police stations), and information technology. With increasingly converged IT and OT systems, it is crucial to address OT cybersecurity considerations and assess how the seam of these two systems could impact the overall cybersecurity posture of a facility. The objective of this report is to provide an overview of the best possible method to use FRCS Cyber Toolkit (section 2.0) and distilled cybersecurity best practices for the federal facilities to address growing non-linear cyber threats (section 3.0). Recommendations in this document are aggregated from several NIST and other documents (see Appendix A for additional details).
Searching for pulsars using image pattern recognition
In the modern era of big data, many fields of astronomy are generating huge volumes of data, the analysis of which can sometimes be the limiting factor in research. Fortunately, computer scientists have developed powerful data-mining techniques that can be applied to various fields. In this paper, we present a novel artificial intelligence (AI) program that identifies pulsars from recent surveys by using image pattern recognition with deep neural nets—the PICS (Pulsar Image-based Classification System) AI. The AI mimics human experts and distinguishes pulsars from noise and interference by looking for patterns from candidate plots. Different from other pulsar selection programs that search for expected patterns, the PICS AI is taught the salient features of different pulsars from a set of human-labeled candidates through machine learning. The training candidates are collected from the Pulsar Arecibo L-band Feed Array (PALFA) survey. The information from each pulsar candidate is synthesized in four diagnostic plots, which consist of image data with up to thousands of pixels. The AI takes these data from each candidate as its input and uses thousands of such candidates to train its ∼9000 neurons. The deep neural networks in this AI system grant it superior ability to recognize various types of pulsars as well as their harmonic signals. The trained AI's performance has been validated with a large set of candidates from a different pulsar survey, the Green Bank North Celestial Cap survey. In this completely independent test, the PICS ranked 264 out of 277 pulsar-related candidates, including all 56 previously known pulsars and 208 of their harmonics, in the top 961 (1%) of 90,008 test candidates, missing only 13 harmonics. The first non-pulsar candidate appears at rank 187, following 45 pulsars and 141 harmonics. In other words, 100% of the pulsars were ranked in the top 1% of all candidates, while 80% were ranked higher than any noise or interference. The performance of this system can be improved over time as more training data are accumulated. This AI system has been integrated into the PALFA survey pipeline and has discovered six new pulsars to date.
Dark Energy Survey: Implications for cosmological expansion models from the final DES baryon acoustic oscillation and supernova data
The Dark Energy Survey (DES) recently released the final results of its two principal probes of the expansion history: Type Ia supernovae (SNe) and baryonic acoustic oscillations (BAO). In this paper, we explore the cosmological implications of these data in combination with external cosmic microwave background (CMB), big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN), and age-of-the-Universe information. The BAO measurement, which is ∼ 2 σ away from Planck ’s Λ CDM predictions, pushes for low values of Ω m compared to Planck, in contrast to SN which prefers a higher value than Planck. We identify several tensions among datasets in the Λ CDM model that cannot be resolved by including either curvature ( k Λ CDM ) or a constant dark energy equation of state ( w CDM ). By combining BAO + SN + CMB despite these mild tensions, we obtain Ω k = - 5.5 - 4.2 + 4.6 × 10 - 3 in k Λ CDM , and w = - 0.94 8 - 0.027 + 0.028 in w CDM . In w CDM , BAO and SN push again in different directions of parameter space, favoring, respectively, w < - 1 and w > - 1 . If we open the parameter space to w 0 w a CDM [where the equation of state of dark energy varies as w ( a ) = w 0 + ( 1 - a ) w a ], all the datasets are mutually more compatible, and we find concordance in the [ w 0 > - 1 , w a < 0 ] quadrant, with BAO pushing for w a < 0 and SN for [ w 0 > - 1 , w a < 0 ] . For DES BAO and SN in combination with Planck -CMB, we find a 3.2 σ deviation from Λ CDM , with w 0 = - 0.67 3 - 0.097 + 0.098 , w a = - 1.3 7 - 0.50 + 0.51 , a Hubble constant of H 0 = 67.8 1 - 0.86 + 0.96 km s - 1 Mpc - 1 , and an abundance of matter of Ω m = 0.310 9 - 0.0099 + 0.0086 . For the combination of all the background cosmological probes considered (including CMB’s angular acoustic scale θ ⋆ ), we still find a deviation of 2.8 σ from Λ CDM in the w 0 - w a plane. Assuming a minimal neutrino mass, this work provides tentative evidence for non- Λ CDM physics, which is consistent with recent claims in support of evolving dark energy, or a source of unknown systematics.