Revisiting the bias factor methodologies for the validation of fast test reactors
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Palmiotti, Giuseppe (ORCID:0000000243120892)↗
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Results for “Bias factors”
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GPS-Based Reduced Dynamic Orbit Determination Using Accelerometer Data
Currently two gravity field satellite missions, CHAMP and GRACE, are equipped with high sensitivity electrostatic accelerometers, measuring the non-conservative forces acting on the spacecraft in three orthogonal directions. During the gravity field recovery these measurements help to separate gravitational and non-gravitational contributions in the observed orbit perturbations. For precise orbit determination purposes all these missions have a dual-frequency GPS receiver on board. The reduced dynamic technique combines the dense and accurate GPS observations with physical models of the forces acting on the spacecraft, complemented by empirical accelerations, which are stochastic parameters adjusted in the orbit determination process. When the spacecraft carries an accelerometer, these measured accelerations can be used to replace the models of the non-conservative forces, such as air drag and solar radiation pressure. This approach is implemented in a batch least-squares estimator of the GPS High Precision Orbit Determination Software Tools (GHOST), developed at DLR/GSOC and DEOS. It is extensively tested with data of the CHAMP and GRACE satellites. As accelerometer observations typically can be affected by an unknown scale factor and bias in each measurement direction, they require calibration during processing. Therefore the estimated state vector is augmented with six parameters: a scale and bias factor for the three axes. In order to converge efficiently to a good solution, reasonable a priori values for the bias factor are necessary. These are calculated by combining the mean value of the accelerometer observations with the mean value of the non-conservative force models and empirical accelerations, estimated when using these models. When replacing the non-conservative force models with accelerometer observations and still estimating empirical accelerations, a good orbit precision is achieved. 100 days of GRACE B data processing results in a mean orbit fit of a few centimeters with respect to high-quality JPL reference orbits. This shows a slightly better consistency compared to the case when using force models. A purely dynamic orbit, without estimating empirical accelerations thus only adjusting six state parameters and the bias and scale factors, gives an orbit fit for the GRACE B test case below the decimeter level. The in orbit calibrated accelerometer observations can be used to validate the modelled accelerations and estimated empirical accelerations computed with the GHOST tools. In along track direction they show the best resemblance, with a mean correlation coefficient of 93% for the same period. In radial and normal direction the correlation is smaller. During days of high solar activity the benefit of using accelerometer observations is clearly visible. The observations during these days show fluctuations which the modelled and empirical accelerations can not follow.
VanHelleputte, Tom↗
Bias correction factors for near-Earth asteroids
Knowledge of the population size and physical characteristics (albedo, size, and rotation rate) of near-Earth asteroids (NEA's) is biased by observational selection effects which are functions of the population's intrinsic properties and the size of the telescope, detector sensitivity, and search strategy used. The NEA population is modeled in terms of orbital and physical elements: a, e, i, omega, Omega, M, albedo, and diameter, and an asteroid search program is simulated using actual telescope pointings of right ascension, declination, date, and time. The position of each object in the model population is calculated at the date and time of each telescope pointing. The program tests to see if that object is within the field of view (FOV = 8.75 degrees) of the telescope and above the limiting magnitude (V = +1.65) of the film. The effect of the starting population on the outcome of the simulation's discoveries is compared to the actual discoveries in order to define a most probable starting population.
Benedix, Gretchen K.↗
Investigation of the 176 Yb Interference Correction during Determination of the 176 Hf/ 177 Hf Ratio by Laser Ablation and Solution Analysis on the Neoma MC-ICP-MS
We utilized the Neoma™, a recently released MC-ICP-MS platform offered by ThermoFisher Scientific, to assess the behavior of the Lu-Yb-Hf system during laser ablation analyses of various zircon standards as well as solution-based analyses of the JMC-475 Hf standard doped with varying quantities of Yb and Lu. The primary goal of this work was to characterize the behavior of the Yb interference correction on the Neoma™ platform since this is one of the biggest issues in the Hf isotope analysis community and because the Neoma™ platform will supplant the Neptune™ series instrument. During laser ablation analysis, we found that the overall data quality scales proportionally with the total Hf signal intensity, with higher signal analyses producing extremely accurate (within 1 ε Hf unit) and precise (sub ε Hf unit within-run standard errors) data. At low Yb signals (<0.1 V 173 Yb), we were not able to produce an accurate internal Yb mass bias factor. However, utilizing an empirical approach allows for the application of session-specific relationships between the Yb and Hf mass bias factors, determined by analysis of standards of varying Yb content, to produce accurate ε Hf values from zircons with higher Yb/Hf ratios even where the total Hf signal intensity is relatively low. Similar behavior was observed in the solution analyses. Lastly, while the behavior of the Yb interference correction on the Neoma™ platform appears comparable to the Neptune™ series MC-ICP-MS, further work will help refine the understanding of the controls on mass bias behavior, oxide formation, session-to-session stability, etc.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Selection-bias effects on high-𝑝 𝑇 yield and correlation measurements in oxygen + oxygen collisions
Oxygen + oxygen (O+O) collisions at the BNL Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC) and the CERN Large Hadron Collider (LHC) offer a unique experimental opportunity to observe the onset of jet quenching in intermediate relativistic collision systems. As with the smaller proton-nucleus or larger nucleus-nucleus systems, measurements of centrality-selected high-𝑝 T processes in O+O collisions are expected to be sensitive to selection bias effects, which will be necessary to quantify or mitigate before a definitive conclusion on the presence of jet quenching. Using two Monte Carlo heavy-ion event generators, we provide a survey of centrality bias effects on high-𝑝 T yield and correlation measurements. Some highlights of our findings include that (1) bias factors for the accessible kinematic range at RHIC show a nontrivial 𝑝 T dependence, compared to a negligible one at the LHC given the smaller accessible Bjorken-𝑥 range, (2) centrality definitions based on multiplicity are less sensitive to bias effects than those based on the transverse energy, (3) the Angantyr generator gives qualitatively similar but larger-magnitude bias factors than Hijing, and (4) correlation measurements have a much smaller sensitivity to bias effects than do yield measurements. Furthermore, the findings here are intended to guide the experimental design and interpretation of O+O jet quenching and other hard-process measurements.
Hard scattering↗
Mitigation of Attentional Tunneling in the Flight Deck Using a Spatial Auditory Display
The role of attentional bias to a specific form of information, e.g., visual versus aural instructions, was evaluated to address the issue of attentional fixation (i.e., "cognitive tunneling") in the flight deck. A method of mitigating attentional tunneling using a spatial auditory display was evaluated in the presence and absence of a biasing factor. Data were gathered for participant recognition, accuracy and response times to aural and visual instructions under different conditions of distractor stimuli. Results showed a significant main effect for target acquisition with the use of spatial audio techniques. No significant main effects or interactions were found for target acquisition timing. Target acquisition was not affected by a "gaming score" biasing factor associated with the distractor tasks.
readback errors↗
Adiabatic and radiative cooling are both important causes of aerosol activation in simulated fog events in Europe
Aerosol–fog interactions affect the visibility in, and life cycle of, fog and are difficult to represent in weather and climate models. Here we explore processes that impact the simulation of fog droplet number concentrations (N d ) at sub-kilometer scale horizontal grid resolutions in the UK Met Office Unified Model. We modify the parameterization of aerosol activation to include droplet activation by radiative cooling in addition to adiabatic cooling and determine the relative importance of the two cooling mechanisms. We further test the sensitivity of simulated N d to: (a) interception of droplets by trees and buildings, (b) overestimation of updrafts in temperature inversions (which leads to artificially high N d values), and (c) potential mechanisms for droplet deactivation due to downward fluctuations in supersaturation. We evaluate our model against observations from the ParisFog and LANFEX field campaigns, building on evaluation described in the companion paper. Including radiative cooling in the activation mechanism improves how accurately we represent the liquid water path and the vertical structure of the fog in our LANFEX case study. However, with radiative cooling, the N d are overestimated for most of the ParisFog cases and for the LANFEX case. The time-averaged overestimate exceeds a factor of three (the normalized mean bias factor exceeds 2.0) in 4 out of 11 ParisFog cases. Our sensitivity studies demonstrate how these overestimates can be mitigated. Assuming the overestimate affects both radiative and adiabatic cooling, we find that although radiative cooling is more often the dominant source, both cooling sources can sometimes dominate activation.
Ghosh, Pratapaditya [Carnegie Mellon University, P↗
Coupled cluster and dislocation dynamics modeling of microstructure evolution in irradiated materials
We develop here a coupled cluster and dislocation dynamics framework to study the microstructure evolution of irradiated materials. The framework not only accounts for the three dimensional diffusion of radiation-generated clusters, but also their interaction with dislocation networks and the resultant climb motion of discrete dislocations within finite crystals. The framework is solved with a superposition solution scheme, and is applied to investigate the evolution of the irradiation-induced dislocation loops in zirconium (Zr), considering the effects of various bias factors including the diffusion anisotropy difference (DAD) of interstitials and interstitial clusters, the dislocation bias of defects to discrete dislocation segments, and the production bias of defects from the radiation cascade. We find that the DAD is the most critical factor influencing the kinetics of the loop evolution in Zr, while the recombination/interaction of mobile defects can induce a strong spatial dependence of the loop evolution together with the DAD. Here, the method is also adopted to study the evolution of interstitial $\langle$a$\rangle$ and vacancy $\langle$c$\rangle$ dislocation loop ensembles consistent with the microstructure observed during irradiation-induced growth of Zr. Our findings not only reveal the spatial dependence of the size and ellipticity of the dislocation loops, but also suggest a limit on the anisotropy factor of interstitials to reproduce the co-growth of $\langle$a$\rangle$ and $\langle$c$\rangle$ loops in zirconium, in good agreement with experimental observations and other simulation results.
Bias factors↗
E-Area Low Level Waste Generator Inventory Uncertainty Estimation
This report describes the method used to estimate the uncertainty and bias in the low-level waste inventory, as reported by Waste Generators, for waste disposed in the E-Area Low-Level Waste Facility at SRS. The waste cut uncertainty and bias is summed to calculate the current total uncertainty and bias in each disposal unit in the E-Area Low-Level Waste Facility. This information is used to estimate the future uncertainty and bias when all disposal units are closed. For most waste cuts, there are two areas of inventory uncertainty and bias: in the isotopic characterization of the waste stream and in the measurement of total waste cut activity. Waste stream characterization is accomplished through a combination of process knowledge and analytical measurements. This characterization is documented by a technical baseline that describes the relative quantity of each isotope present in the waste stream. The total activity of each individual waste cut is usually measured directly or is calculated through a ratio of activity per weight or activity per volume. The waste cut total activity is multiplied by the waste stream isotopic fraction to calculate the total isotopic activity present in the waste cut. The waste cut uncertainty and bias is calculated by analyzing the uncertainties and biases in the waste stream characterization and waste cut measurements and adding the uncertainties in quadrature and multiplying the reported isotopic activities by the bias factors. The current isotopic inventory, uncertainty, and bias of a disposal unit is the sum of the currently disposed individual waste cut isotopic activities, uncertainties, and biases. The future uncertainty and bias is estimated based on the average “worst-case” (largest) uncertainties and biases of currently closed and operational disposal units. This report details the method, data sources, and calculation techniques used to calculate these values. It also presents some of the difficulties in working with the reported data and gives examples of the calculations and analysis. The software used to carryout the analysis is included and the location of the complete individual analyses is given. After discussion with waste generators, examination of multiple waste characterization documents, and a review of SRS Manual 1S, the reported ELLWF radionuclide activities are clearly conservative and likely represent reasonable upper bounds for the true activities. However, quantifying the bias and uncertainty in each waste cut requires detailed analysis of the documentation for each waste cut measurement and waste stream characterization.
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
Dislocation loop bias and void swelling in irradiated α-iron from mesoscale and atomistic simulations
Abstract Dislocation loops are ubiquitous in irradiated materials, and dislocation loop bias plays a critical role in void swelling. However, due to complicated interactions between dislocation loops and point defects, it is challenging to evaluate the bias factors of dislocation loops. Here, we determine the bias of sessile < 100 > loops in α-iron using a recently developed atomistic approach based on the lifetime of point defects. We establish a mechanistic understanding of the loop interaction based on the diffusion tendency of point defects near the loop core region. Mobile self-interstitial atoms tend to be absorbed from the edge of the loop, and a trapping region perpendicular to the habit plane of the loop exists. The dislocation loop bias is found to be substantially lower than those of straight dislocations in α-iron and should be included in swelling rate estimates. With the obtained sink strength and bias values, agreement is achieved with experimental results for both absolute values and temperature dependence.
Yu, Ziang↗
An expert system based software sizing tool, phase 2
A software tool was developed for predicting the size of a future computer program at an early stage in its development. The system is intended to enable a user who is not expert in Software Engineering to estimate software size in lines of source code with an accuracy similar to that of an expert, based on the program's functional specifications. The project was planned as a knowledge based system with a field prototype as the goal of Phase 2 and a commercial system planned for Phase 3. The researchers used techniques from Artificial Intelligence and knowledge from human experts and existing software from NASA's COSMIC database. They devised a classification scheme for the software specifications, and a small set of generic software components that represent complexity and apply to large classes of programs. The specifications are converted to generic components by a set of rules and the generic components are input to a nonlinear sizing function which makes the final prediction. The system developed for this project predicted code sizes from the database with a bias factor of 1.06 and a fluctuation factor of 1.77, an accuracy similar to that of human experts but without their significant optimistic bias.
Friedlander, David↗
Capture efficiency and bias from the defect dynamics near grain boundaries in BCC Fe using mesoscale simulations
The capture efficiency describes the capability of a sink, such as a grain boundary (GB), dislocation, and void, to absorb point defects (PDs). The bias defines the difference in capture efficiency between the absorption of a vacancy and dumbbell at a sink. Complete kinetic information on PDs, including diffusion barriers and diffusion orientations, as well as accurate saddle points, are needed to determine the capture efficiency and bias at a sink accurately, which is computationally demanding. Here, in the present study, the Self-Evolving Atomistic Kinetic Monte Carlo (SEAKMC) method was used to investigate the defect dynamics of PDs near different types of grain boundaries (GBs) (with both $\langle$100$\rangle$ and $\langle$110$\rangle$ families) accurately in body-centered cubic (BCC) iron (Fe). The capture efficiency, sink strength, and bias factor of different types of GBs were determined in Fe, which, different from traditional rate theory estimation, showed a distinct capture efficiency, sink strength, and bias in different GBs. The results demonstrate a strong positive correlation between the capture efficiency and the GB strain width, instead of the GB misorientation, GB energy, or GB-PD binding energy, which have been investigated previously. This work provides valuable insight into the radiation-induced microstructural evolution of GBs.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Gravitational lensing frequencies - Galaxy cross-sections and selection effects
Four issues - (1) the best currently available data on the galaxy velocity-dispersion distribution, (2) the effects of finite core radii potential ellipticity on lensing cross sections, (3) the predicted distribution of lens image separations compared to observational angular resolutions, and (4) the preferential inclusion of lens systems in flux limited samples - are considered in order to facilitate more realistic predictions of multiple image galaxy-quasar lensing frequencies. It is found that (1) the SIS lensing parameter F equals 0.047 +/-0.019 with almost 90 percent contributed by E and S0 galaxies, (2) observed E and S0 core radii are remarkably small, yielding a factor of less than about 2 reduction in total lensing cross sections, (3) 50 percent of galaxy-quasar lenses have image separations greater than about 1.3 arcsec, and (4) amplification bias factors are large and must be carefully taken into account. It is concluded that flat universe models excessively dominated by the cosmological constant are not favored by the small observed galaxy-quasar lensing rate.
Fukugita, Masataka↗
Correlations Between the Cosmic X-Ray and Microwave Backgrounds: Constraints on a Cosmological Constant
In universes with significant curvature or cosmological constant, cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropies are created very recently via the Rees-Sciama or integrated Sachs-Wolfe effects. This causes the CMB anisotropies to become partially correlated with the local matter density (z less than 4). We examine the prospects of using the hard (2- 10 keV) X-ray background as a probe of the local density and the measured correlation between the HEAO1 A2 X-ray survey and the 4-year COBE-DMR map to obtain a constraint on the cosmological constant. The 95% confidence level upper limit on the cosmological constant is OMega(sub Lambda) less than or equal to 0.5, assuming that the observed fluctuations in the X-ray map result entirely from large scale structure. (This would also imply that the X-rays trace matter with a bias factor of b(sub x) approx. = 5.6 Omega(sub m, sup 0.53)). This bound is weakened considerably if a large portion of the X-ray fluctuations arise from Poisson noise from unresolved sources. For example, if one assumes that the X-ray bias is b(sub x) = 2, then the 95% confidence level upper limit is weaker, Omega(sub Lambda) less than or equal to 0.7. More stringent limits should be attainable with data from the next generation of CMB and X-ray background maps.
Boughn, S. P.↗
Using lifetime of point defects for dislocation bias in bcc Fe
The interaction between dislocations and point defects is key to deformation processes and microstructural evolution of structural materials. In this work, we compute the lifetime of point defects to describe their interaction with dislocations. This approach can accurately account for the effects of the dislocation core and anisotropic defect dynamics to accumulatively determine the capture efficiency, sink strength, and dislocation bias at different temperatures and dislocation densities. Particularly, the absorption of point defects by straight screw and edge dislocations in a model bcc iron system is studied. The maximum swelling rates based on the obtained bias factors are in close agreement with a variety of experimental measurements, including both neutron and ion-irradiation data, especially when considering the survival fraction for point defects from displacement cascades. Further, this approach applies to many other processes and sinks, such as dislocation loops and interfaces, providing a powerful means to develop fundamental insights critical for improving radiation resistance and mechanical properties of structural materials through controlling defect interaction and evolution.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Comparison of large-scale structures and velocities in the local universe
Comparison of the large-scale density and velocity fields in the local universe shows detailed agreement, strengthening the standard paradigm of the gravitational origin of these structures. Quantitative analysis can determine the cosmological density parameter, Omega, and biasing factor, b; there is virtually no sensitivity in any local analyses to the cosmologial constant, lambda. Comparison of the dipole anisotropy of the cosmic microwave background with the acceleration due to the Infrared Astronomy Satellite (IRAS) galaxies puts the linear growth factor in the range beta approximately equals Omega (exp 0.6)/b = 0.6(+0.7/-0.3) (95% confidence). A direct comparison of the density and velocity fields of nearby galaxies gives beta = 1.3 (+0.7/-0.6), and from nonlinear analysis the weaker limit (Omega greater than 0.45 for b greater than 0.5 (again 95% confidence). A tighter limit (Omega greater than 0.3 (4-6 sigma)), is obtained by a reconstruction of the probability distribution function of the initial fluctuations from which the structures observed today arose. The last two methods depend critically on the smooth velocity field determined from the observed velocities of nearby galaxies by the POTENT method. A new analysis of these velocities, with more than three times the data used to obtain the above quoted results, is now underway and promises to tighten the uncertainties considerably, as well as reduce systematic bias.
Yahil, Amos↗
Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: Cosmological constraints from galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing using the MagLim lens sample
The cosmological information extracted from photometric surveys is most robust when multiple probes of the large scale structure of the Universe are used. Two of the most sensitive probes are the clustering of galaxies and the tangential shear of background galaxy shapes produced by those foreground galaxies, so-called galaxy-galaxy lensing. Combining the measurements of these two two-point functions leads to cosmological constraints that are independent of the way galaxies trace matter (the galaxy bias factor). The optimal choice of foreground, or lens, galaxies is governed by the joint, but conflicting requirements to obtain accurate redshift information and large statistics. We present cosmological results from the full 5000 deg 2 of the Dark Energy Survey’s first three years of observations (Y3) combining those two-point functions, using for the first time a magnitude-limited lens sample (MagLim) of 11 million galaxies, especially selected to optimize such combination, and 100 million background shapes. We consider two flat cosmological models, the Standard Model with dark energy and cold dark matter ( Λ CDM ) a variation with a free parameter for the dark energy equation of state ( w CDM ). Both models are marginalized over 25 astrophysical and systematic nuisance parameters. In Λ CDM we obtain for the matter density Ω m = 0.320 - 0.034 + 0.041 and for the clustering amplitude S 8 ≡ σ 8 ( Ω m / 0.3 ) 0.5 = 0.778 - 0.031 + 0.037 , at 68% C.L. The latter is only 1 σ smaller than the prediction in this model informed by measurements of the cosmic microwave background by the Planck satellite. In w CDM we find Ω m = 0.32 - 0.046 + 0.044 , S 8 = 0.777 - 0.051 + 0.049 and dark energy equation of state w = - 1.031 - 0.379 + 0.218 . We find that including smaller scales, while marginalizing over nonlinear galaxy bias, improves the constraining power in the Ω m - S 8 plane by 31% and in the Ω m - w plane by 41% while yielding consistent cosmological parameters from those in the linear bias case. These results are combined with those from cosmic shear in a companion paper to present full DES-Y3 constraints from the three two-point functions ( 3 × 2 pt ).
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: SZ-based masses and dust emission from IR-selected cluster candidates in the SHELA survey
Here we examine the stacked thermal Sunyaev–Zel’dovich (SZ) signals for a sample of galaxy group and cluster candidates from the 24 deg 2 infrared Spitzer-HETDEX Exploratory Large Area (SHELA) survey. We identify the objects in combination with optical data using the redMaPPer algorithm, and divide them into three richness bins (λ in 10–20, 20–30, and 30–76 with average photometric redshifts of 0.80, 0.73, and 0.70, respectively). All richness bins show evidence for dust emission, which we fit using stacked profiles from Herschel Stripe 82 data. We fit for synchrotron emission using stacked profiles created by binning source fluxes from NRAO VLA Sky Survey data. We can confidently detect the SZ decrement only in the highest richness bin, finding M SZ,500 = $8.7^{+1.7}_{-1.3} \times 10^{13}\, \mathrm{ M}_\odot$. Neglecting the correction for dust and synchrotron depresses the inferred mass by 26 percent, indicating a partial fill-in of the SZ decrement from dust and synchrotron emission. We compare our corrected SZ masses to two redMaPPer mass–richness scaling relations and find that the SZ mass is lower than predicted by the richness. For the lower richness bins, mass bias factors as low as 1 – b = 0.6 are not enough to bring the mass limits into agreement. We discuss possible explanations for this discrepancy. The SHELA richnesses may differ from previous richness measurements due to the inclusion of infrared data in redMaPPer. To connect the SZ signal to the mass, we use a universal gas pressure profile that is calibrated to massive clusters at low redshift. It may not be applicable to our lower mass, higher redshift sample.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗