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Understanding the Uncertainty and Variability of Earth’s Radiation Budget Components Over the Past 3 Decades from the NASA’s GEWEX Surface Radiation Budget Release 4 Integrated Product

The NASA/GEWEX Surface Radiation Budget (SRB) project produced a 30+ year time series of 3-hourly Top-of-Atmosphere (TOA) and surface radiative flux components at a 1x1 degree resolution. This SRB Release 4 Integrated Productare derived using imager data products from the cross-calibrated from ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project) “HSeries” radiance, cloud and surface property data products. The ISCCP HXS product replaces ISCCP DX with a ninefold increase in pixel count (10km instead of 30km). ISCCP also provides an atmospheric temperature and moisture dataset known as nnHIRS which we use and discuss radiative flux sensitivities to in this presentation. Total solar irradiance is now variable consistent with SORCE measurements. Sea surface (SeaFlux v2.0) and land surface products (LandFlux) are utilized to achieve an radiative flux estimatesintegrated with global data sets from these GEWEX projects. The variable aerosol composition are specified using a detailed aerosol history from the Max Planck Institute Aerosol Climatology (MAC) also used for background aerosol in the ISCCP HX. Numerous other improvements were made to the SW and LW algorithms including improved cloud optical property treatments and specification of surface spectral albedo and emissivity for various surface conditions. Here we analyze the new SWand LWSRB datasets, comparing them to the previous Release 3, BSRN, GEBA and PMEL surface measurements, and ERBE and CERES satellite datasets. For surface flux validation besides ensemble comparisons, we show the variability of SRB vs surface measurements from BSRN beginning in 1992 and GEBA SW from 1983. We assess the variability of the surface flux anomalies, particularly the net fluxes and the cloud radiative effects, over the entire time period including the period containing CERES overlap. For the TOA fluxes, the anomalies of the fluxes in the early period are compared to the MEaSURES ERBE and the latter period to CERES EBAF/SYN1Deg datasets for a benchmark. Long-term changes in the surface radiation budget components and cloud radiative effects are shown and discussed relative to CERES and surface measurements. This includes a change point analysis that helps associate various changes in the ISCCP GEO/LEO configurations and other inputs to variations in the radiative budget components.

Earth Radiation Budget↗
NASA NTRS2014

Assessment of NASA GISS CMIP5 and Post-CMIP5 Simulated Clouds and TOA Radiation Budgets Using Satellite Observations: TOA Radiation Budget and CREs - Part 2

In Part I of this study, the NASA GISS Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and post-CMIP5 (herein called C5 and P5, respectively) simulated cloud properties were assessed utilizing multiple satellite observations, with a particular focus on the southern midlatitudes (SMLs). This study applies the knowledge gained from Part I of this series to evaluate the modeled TOA radiation budgets and cloud radiative effects (CREs) globally using CERES EBAF (CE) satellite observations and the impact of regional cloud properties and water vapor on the TOA radiation budgets. Comparisons revealed that the P5- and C5-simulated global means of clear-sky and all-sky outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) match well with CE observations, while biases are observed regionally. Negative biases are found in both P5- and C5-simulated clear-sky OLR. P5-simulated all-sky albedo slightly increased over the SMLs due to the increase in low-level cloud fraction from the new planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme. Shortwave, longwave, and net CRE are quantitatively analyzed as well. Regions of strong large-scale atmospheric upwelling/downwelling motion are also defined to compare regional differences across multiple cloud and radiative variables. In general, the P5 and C5 simulations agree with the observations better over the downwelling regime than over the upwelling regime. Comparing the results herein with the cloud property comparisons presented in Part I, the modeled TOA radiation budgets and CREs agree well with the CE observations. These results, combined with results in Part I, have quantitatively estimated how much improvement is found in the P5-simulated cloud and radiative properties, particularly over the SMLs and tropics, due to the implementation of the new PBL and convection schemes.

Model comparison↗
NASA NTRS1987

Nimbus 7 earth radiation budget wide field of view climate data set improvement. II - Deconvolution of earth radiation budget products and consideration of 1982-1983 El Nino event

A deconvolution technique is employed that permits recovery of daily averaged earth radiation budget (ERB) parameters at the top of the atmosphere from a set of the Nimbus 7 ERB wide field of view (WFOV) measurements. Improvements in both the spatial resolution of the resultant fields and in the fidelity of the time averages is obtained. The algorithm is evaluated on a set of months during the period 1980-1983. The albedo, outgoing long-wave radiation, and net radiation parameters are analyzed. The amplitude and phase of the quasi-stationary patterns that appear in the spatially deconvolved fields describe the radiation budget components for 'normal' as well as the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episode years. They delineate the seasonal development of large-scale features inherent in the earth's radiation budget as well as the natural variability of interannual differences. These features are underscored by the powerful emergence of the 1982-1983 ENSO event in the fields displayed. The conclusion is that with this type of resolution enhancement, WFOV radiometers provide a useful tool for the observation of the contemporary climate and its variability.

Ardanuy, Phillip E.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Radiative Energy Budget Studies Using Observations from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE)

Our research activities under this NASA grant have focused on two broad topics associated with the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE): (1) the role of clouds and the surface in modifying the radiative balance; and (2) the spatial and temporal variability of the earth's radiation budget. Each of these broad topics is discussed separately in the text that follows. The major points of the thesis are summarized in section 3 of this report. Other dissertation focuses on deriving the radiation budget over the TOGA COARE region.

Ackerman, Steven A.↗
NASA NTRS2008

1999-2003 Shortwave Characterizations of Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS)/Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) Broadband Active Cavity Radiometer Sensors

From October 1984 through May 2005, the NASA Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS/ )/Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE)ERBE nonscanning active cavity radiometers (ACR) were used to monitor long-term changes in the earth radiation budget components of the incoming total solar irradiance (TSI), earth-reflected TSI, and earth-emitted outgoing longwave radiation (OLR). From September1984 through September 1999, using on-board calibration systems, the ERBS/ERBE ACR sensor response changes, in gains and offsets, were determined from on-orbit calibration sources and from direct observations of the incoming TSI through calibration solar ports at measurement precision levels approaching 0.5 W/sq m , at satellite altitudes. On October 6, 1999, the onboard radiometer calibration system elevation drive failed. Thereafter, special spacecraft maneuvers were performed to observe cold space and the sun in order to define the post-September 1999 geometry of the radiometer measurements, and to determine the October 1999-September 2003 ERBS sensor response changes. Analyses of these special solar and cold space observations indicate that the radiometers were pointing approximately 16 degrees away from the spacecraft nadir and on the anti-solar side of the spacecraft. The special observations indicated that the radiometers responses were stable at precision levels approaching 0.5 W/sq m . In this paper, the measurement geometry determinations and the determinations of the radiometers gain and offset are presented, which will permit the accurate processing of the October 1999 through September 2003 ERBE data products at satellite and top-of-the-atmosphere altitudes.

Lee, Robert B., III↗
NASA NTRS1992

Radiation budget studies using collocated observations from advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer, High-Resolution Infrared Sounder/2, and Earth Radiation Budget Experiment instruments

Collocated observations from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), High-Resolution Infrared Sounder/2 (HIRS/2), and Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) instruments onboard the NOAA 9 satellite are combined to describe the broadband and spectral radiative properties of the earth-atmosphere system. Broadband radiative properties are determined from the ERBE observations, while spectral properties are determined from the HIRS/2 and AVHRR observations. The presence of clouds, their areal coverage, and cloud top pressure are determined from a combination of the HIRS/2 and the AVHRR observations. The CO2 slicing method is applied to the HIRS/2 to determine the presence of upper level clouds and their effective emissivity. The AVHRR data collocated within the HIRS/2 field of view are utilized to determine the uniformity of the scene and retrieve sea surface temperature. Changes in the top of the atmosphere longwave and shortwave radiative energy budgets, and the spectral distribution of longwave radiation are presented as a function of cloud amount and cloud top pressure. The radiative characteristics of clear sky conditions over oceans are presented as a function of sea surface temperature and atmospheric water vapor structure.

Ackerman, Steven A.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Characteristics of the earth's radiation budget derived from the first year of data from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment

The first year of broadband Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) data is analyzed for top-of-the-atmosphere regional variations of outgoing longwave (LW) flux and planetary albedo for total scene as well as clear-sky conditions. The annual variation of radiative parameters is examined for February 1985 through January 1986 for selected regions, latitude zones, and the entire globe. Results show significant seasonal variations for both LW fluxes and albedo. A broad longwave flux maximum (with a relative minimum corresponding to the intertropical convergence zone in the middle) covers the tropics and the subtropics with its center moving about 20 deg in latitude between seasonal extremes. Minimum albedo (about 20 percent) occurs within 15 deg of the equator. In the tropics and midlatitudes, there is a tendency toward higher albedos during the summer. Larger albedos at the higher latitudes are caused by solar zenith angle effects and by increased snow and ice cover. Net warming occurs between 35 deg N and 35 deg S latitude near the equinoxes and in a 90-deg-wide latitude band at the solstices centered around 35 deg latitude in the summer hemisphere. This energy surplus at lower latitudes coupled with an energy deficit in the poleward regions is the primary driver of atmospheric circulations. For the year, the global net radiation is nearly in balance.

Gibson, G. G.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Verifying Mars 2020 Sampling and Caching Robotic Functions with Position Budgeting Process and Tool

The Mars 2020 Perseverance Rover was launched on July 30th, 2020 with one of the most complex robotic systems ever implemented on an interplanetary mission. Much of this robotic complexity resides in the Rover Sampling and Caching Subsystem (SCS) to enable collection of Martian samples for eventual return to earth and preparation of surfaces for close-up surface science observations. Two robotic arms are used by SCS: the large Robotic Arm (RA) positions the coring drill and science instruments mounted to the Turret for surface interactions, and the smaller Sample Handling Assembly (SHA) manipulates Sample Tube Assemblies (STA) within the Adaptive Caching Assembly (ACA) to prepare them for sample collection, processing, and hermetic sealing. The robotic arms interact with the Martian surface and other SCS components in many ways and in a variety of configurations, with positioning accuracy requirements ranging from tens of millimeters for some surface interactions down to sub-millimeter accuracy for some ACA interactions.This paper describes the process and tool used to calculate the SCS robotic interaction positioning budgets and verify the as-built hardware when delivered. To ensure that these robotic systems are able to perform their tasks, each robotic interaction with another element was broken down into its composite functions. To calculate a positioning budget margin for each function, an allowable was defined and then compared to the list of error sources that contribute to misalignment. Across the subsystem, over 250 functions were identified to be assessed, with almost 500 error sources feeding into their budget calculations. In addition to using as-built values in the budgets for SCS Verification and Validation (V&V) after the hardware was complete, these budgets were populated with design data during the design phase to identify areas of concern and guide hardware design to ensure positive position budget margins.Because of the size of the SCS team that had inputs to the positioning budgets and the sheer number of items in the budgets that needed to be created, updated, and verified, having a tool that would allow for simultaneous access and robust data integrity and processing was imperative. To accomplish this, a web-based MySQL database was created that allowed users to create function position budgets, link individual errors and allowables to them, and view function position budget margin reports. Each error and allowable records data for lateral, normal, angular, and clocking errors, with the ability to add as-built data for up to four different hardware builds. Margin reports can be generated for either design values alone or replacing design data with as-built data when available. These as-built reports are used for final verification of the SCS positioning requirements. Ultimately, the SCS positioning budget process and database tool led to successful interactions during test and an SCS robotic system that is ready to perform sample acquisition and caching on the surface of Mars.

Williams, Jeffrey↗
NASA NTRS2020

The Global Methane Budget 2000–2017

Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH4) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. Atmospheric emissions and concentrations of CH4 continue to increase, making CH4 the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms of climate forcing, after carbon dioxide (CO2). The relative importance of CH4 compared to CO2 depends on its shorter atmospheric lifetime, stronger warming potential, and variations in atmospheric growth rate over the past decade, the causes of which are still debated. Two major challenges in reducing uncertainties in the atmospheric growth rate arise from the variety of geographically overlapping CH4 sources and from the destruction of CH4 by short-lived hydroxyl radicals (OH). To address these challenges, we have established a consortium of multidisciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate new research aimed at improving and regularly updating the global methane budget. Following Saunois et al. (2016), we present here the second version of the living review paper dedicated to the decadal methane budget, integrating results of top-down studies (atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up estimates (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven extrapolations). For the 2008–2017 decade, global methane emissions are estimated by atmospheric inversions (a top-down approach) to be 576 Tg CH4/yr (range 550–594, corresponding to the minimum and maximum estimates of the model ensemble). Of this total, 359 Tg CH4/yr or ∼ 60 % is attributed to anthropogenic sources, that is emissions caused by direct human activity (i.e. anthropogenic emissions; range 336–376 Tg CH4/yr or 50 %–65 %). The mean annual total emission for the new decade (2008–2017) is 29 Tg CH4/yr larger than our estimate for the previous decade (2000–2009), and 24 Tg CH4/yr larger than the one reported in the previous budget for 2003–2012 (Saunois et al., 2016). Since 2012, global CH4 emissions have been tracking the warmest scenarios assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Bottom-up methods suggest almost 30 % larger global emissions (737 Tg CH4/yr, range 594–881) than top-down inversion methods. Indeed, bottom-up estimates for natural sources such as natural wetlands, other inland water systems, and geological sources are higher than top-down estimates. The atmospheric constraints on the top-down budget suggest that at least some of these bottom-up emissions are overestimated. The latitudinal distribution of atmospheric observation-based emissions indicates a predominance of tropical emissions (∼ 65 % of the global budget, < 30° N) compared to mid-latitudes (∼ 30 %, 30–60° N) and high northern latitudes (∼ 4 %, 60–90° N). The most important source of uncertainty in the methane budget is attributable to natural emissions, especially those from wetlands and other inland waters. Some of our global source estimates are smaller than those in previously published budgets (Saunois et al., 2016; Kirschke et al., 2013). In particular wetland emissions are about 35 Tg CH4/yr lower due to improved partition wetlands and other inland waters. Emissions from geological sources and wild animals are also found to be smaller by 7 Tg CH4/yr by 8 Tg CH4/yr, respectively. However, the overall discrepancy between bottom-up and top-down estimates has been reduced by only 5 % compared to Saunois et al. (2016), due to a higher estimate of emissions from inland waters, highlighting the need for more detailed research on emissions factors. Priorities for improving the methane budget include (i) a global, high-resolution map of water-saturated soils and inundated areas emitting methane based on a robust classification of different types of emitting habitats; (ii) further development of process-based models for inland-water emissions; (iii) intensification of methane observations at local scales (e.g., FLUXNET-CH4 measurements) and urban-scale monitoring to constrain bottom-up land surface models, and at regional scales (surface networks and satellites) to constrain atmospheric inversions; (iv) improvements of transport models and the representation of photochemical sinks in top-down inversions; and (v) development of a 3D variational inversion system using isotopic and/or co-emitted species such as ethane to improve source partitioning.

methane budget↗
NASA NTRS1980

Earth radiation budget measurements from satellites and their interpretation for climate modeling and studies

The annual and seasonal averaged Earth atmosphere radiation budgets derived from the most complete set of satellite observations available are presented. The budgets were derived from a composite of 48 monthly mean radiation budget maps. Annually and seasonally averaged radiation budgets are presented as global averages and zonal averages. The geographic distribution of the various radiation budget quantities is described. The annual cycle of the radiation budget was analyzed and the annual variability of net flux was shown to be largely dominated by the regular semi and annual cycles forced by external Earth-Sun geometry variations. Radiative transfer calculations were compared to the observed budget quantities and surface budgets were additionally computed with particular emphasis on discrepancies that exist between the present computations and previous surface budget estimates.

Vonderhaar, T. H.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Summertime partitioning and budget of NO(y) compounds in the troposphere over Alaska and Canada: ABLE 3B

As part of NASA's Arctic Boundary Layer Expedition 3A and 3B field measurement programs, measurements of NO(x), HNO3, PAN, PPN, and NO(y) were made in the middle to lower troposphere over Alaska and Canada during the summers of 1988 and 1990. These measurements are used to assess the degree of closure within the reactive odd nitrogen (N(x)O(y)) budget through the comparison of the values of NO(y) measured with a catalytic convertor to the sum of individually measured NO(y) (i) compounds (i.e., sigmaNO(y)(i) = NO(x) + HNO3 + PAN + PPN). Significant differences were observed between the various study regions. In the lower 6 km of the troposphere over Alaska and the Hudson Bay lowlands of Canada a significant fraction of the NO(y) budget (30 to 60%) could not be accounted for by the measured sigmaNO(y)i. This deficit in the NO(y) budget is about 100 to 200 parts per trillion by volume (pptv) in the lower troposphere (0.15 to 3 km) and about 200 to 400 pptv in the middle free troposphere (3 to 6.2 km). Conversely, the NO(y) budget in the northern Labrador and Quebec regions of Canada is almost totally accounted for within the combined measurement uncertainties of NO(y) and the various NO(y)(i) compounds. A substantial portion of the NO(y) budget's 'missing compounds' appears to be coupled to the photochemical and/or dynamical parameters influencing the tropospheric oxidative potential over these regions. A combination of factors are suggested as the causes for the variability observed in the NO(y) budget. In addition, the apparent stability of compounds represented by the NO(y) budget deficit in the lower-altitude range questions the ability of these compounds to participate as reversible reservoirs for 'active' odd nitrogen and suggest that some portion of the NO(y) budget may consist of relatively unreactive nitrogen-containing compounds.

Sandholm, S.↗
NASA NTRS2019

State of the science in reconciling top‐down and bottom‐up approaches for terrestrial CO2 budget

Robust estimates of CO2 budget, CO2 exchanged between the atmosphere and terrestrial biosphere, are necessary to better understand the role of the terrestrial biosphere in mitigating anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Over the past decade, this field of research has advanced through understanding of the differences and similarities of two fundamentally different approaches: “top‐down” atmospheric inversions and “bottom‐up” biosphere models. Since the first studies were undertaken, these approaches have shown an increasing level of agreement, but disagreements in some regions still persist, in part because they do not estimate the same quantity of atmosphere–biosphere CO2 exchange. Here, we conducted a thorough comparison of CO2 budgets at multiple scales and from multiple methods to assess the current state of the science in estimating CO2 budgets. Our set of atmospheric inversions and biosphere models, which were adjusted for a consistent flux definition, showed a high level of agreement for global and hemispheric CO2 budgets in the 2000s. Regionally, improved agreement in CO2 budgets was notable for North America and Southeast Asia. However, large gaps between the two methods remained in East Asia and South America. In other regions, Europe, boreal Asia, Africa, South Asia, and Oceania, it was difficult to determine whether those regions act as a net sink or source because of the large spread in estimates from atmospheric inversions. These results highlight two research directions to improve the robustness of CO2 budgets: (a) to increase representation of processes in biosphere models that could contribute to fill the budget gaps, such as forest regrowth and forest degradation; and (b) to reduce sink–source compensation between regions (dipoles) in atmospheric inversion so that their estimates become more comparable. Advancements on both research areas will increase the level of agreement between the top‐down and bottom‐up approaches and yield more robust knowledge of regional CO2 budgets.

atmospheric inversion↗
NASA NTRS2002

Urban Surface Radiative Energy Budgets Determined Using Aircraft Scanner Data

It is estimated that by the year 2025, 80% of the world's population will live in cities. The extent of these urban areas across the world can be seen in an image of city lights from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program. In many areas of North America and Europe, it is difficult to separate individual cities because of the dramatic growth and sprawl of urbanized areas. This conversion of the natural landscape vegetation into man-made urban structures such as roads and buildings drastically alter the regional surface energy budgets, hydrology, precipitation patterns, and meteorology. One of the earliest recognized and measured phenomena of urbanization is the urban heat island (UHI) which was reported as early as 1833 for London and 1862 for Paris. The urban heat island results from the energy that is absorbed by man-made materials during the day and is released at night resulting in the heating of the air within the urban area. The magnitude of the air temperature difference between the urban and surrounding countryside is highly dependent on the structure of the urban area, amount of solar immolation received during the day, and atmospheric conditions during the night. These night time air temperature differences can be in the range of 2 to 5 C. or greater. Although day time air temperature differences between urban areas and the countryside exists during the day, atmospheric mixing and stability reduce the magnitude. This phenomena is not limited to large urban areas, but also occurs in smaller metropolitan areas. The UHI has significant impacts on the urban air quality, meteorology, energy use, and human health. The UPI can be mitigated through increasing the amount of vegetation and modification of urban surfaces using high albedo materials for roofs and paved surfaces. To understand why the urban heat island phenomenon exists it is useful to define the surface in terms of the surface energy budget. Surface temperature and albedo is a major component of the surface energy budget. Knowledge of it is important in any attempt to describe the radiative and mass fluxes which occur at the surface. Use of energy terms in modeling surface energy budgets allows the direct comparison of various land surfaces encountered in a urban landscape, from vegetated (forest and herbaceous) to non-vegetated (bare soil, roads, and buildings). These terms are also easily measured using remote sensing from aircraft or satellite platforms allowing one to examine the spacial variability. The partitioning of energy budget terms depends on the surface type. In natural landscapes, the partitioning is dependent on canopy biomass, leaf area index, aerodynamic roughness, and moisture status, all of which are influenced by the development stage of the ecosystem. In urban landscapes, coverage by man-made materials substantially alters the surface face energy budget. The remotely sensed data obtained from aircraft and satellites, when properly calibrated allows the measurement of important terms in the radiative surface energy budget a urban landscape scale.

Luvall, Jeffrey C.↗
NASA NTRS2016

The Global Methane Budget 2000-2012

The global methane (CH4) budget is becoming an increasingly important component for managing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. This relevance, due to a shorter atmospheric lifetime and a stronger warming potential than carbon dioxide, is challenged by the still unexplained changes of atmospheric CH4 over the past decade. Emissions and concentrations of CH4 are continuing to increase, making CH4 the second most important human-induced greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide. Two major difficulties in reducing uncertainties come from the large variety of diffusive CH4 sources that overlap geographically, and from the destruction of CH4 by the very short-lived hydroxyl radical (OH). To address these difficulties, we have established a consortium of multi-disciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate research on the methane cycle, and producing regular (approximately biennial) updates of the global methane budget. This consortium includes atmospheric physicists and chemists, biogeochemists of surface and marine emissions, and socio-economists who study anthropogenic emissions. Following Kirschke et al. (2013), we propose here the first version of a living review paper that integrates results of top-down studies (exploiting atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modeling framework) and bottom-up models, inventories and data-driven approaches (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, and inventories for anthropogenic emissions, data-driven extrapolations).For the 2003-2012 decade, global methane emissions are estimated by top-down inversions at 558 TgCH4 yr(exp -1), range 540-568. About 60 of global emissions are anthropogenic (range 50-65%). Since 2010, the bottom-up global emission inventories have been closer to methane emissions in the most carbon-intensive Representative Concentrations Pathway (RCP8.5) and higher than all other RCP scenarios. Bottom-up approaches suggest larger global emissions (736 TgCH4 yr(exp -1), range 596-884) mostly because of larger natural emissions from individual sources such as inland waters, natural wetlands and geological sources. Considering the atmospheric constraints on the top-down budget, it is likely that some of the individual emissions reported by the bottom-up approaches are overestimated, leading to too large global emissions. Latitudinal data from top-down emissions indicate a predominance of tropical emissions (approximately 64% of the global budget, less than 30deg N) as compared to mid (approximately 32%, 30-60deg N) and high northern latitudes (approximately 4%, 60-90deg N). Top-down inversions consistently infer lower emissions in China (approximately 58 TgCH4 yr(exp -1), range 51-72, minus14% ) and higher emissions in Africa (86 TgCH4 yr(exp -1), range 73-108, plus 19% ) than bottom-up values used as prior estimates. Overall, uncertainties for anthropogenic emissions appear smaller than those from natural sources, and the uncertainties on source categories appear larger for top-down inversions than for bottom-up inventories and models. The most important source of uncertainty on the methane budget is attributable to emissions from wetland and other inland waters. We show that the wetland extent could contribute 30-40% on the estimated range for wetland emissions. Other priorities for improving the methane budget include the following: (i) the development of process-based models for inland-water emissions, (ii) the intensification of methane observations at local scale (flux measurements) to constrain bottom-up land surface models, and at regional scale (surface networks and satellites) to constrain top-down inversions, (iii) improvements in the estimation of atmospheric loss by OH, and (iv) improvements of the transport models integrated in top-down inversions. The data presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (http://doi.org/10.3334/CDIAC/GLOBAL_ METHANE_BUDGET_2016_V1.1) and the Global Carbon Project.

Saunois, Marielle↗
NASA NTRS2019

Global Carbon Budget 2019

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (E(FF)) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land use change (E(LUC)), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (G(ATM)) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (S(OCEAN)) and terrestrial CO2 sink (S(LAND)) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (B(IM)), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2009–2018), E(FF) was 9.5±0.5 GtC/yr, E(LUC) 1.5±0.7 GtC/yr, G(ATM) 4.9±0.02 GtC/yr (2.3±0.01 ppm/yr), S(OCEAN) 2.5±0.6 GtC/yr, and S(LAND) 3.2±0.6 GtC/yr, with a budget imbalance B(IM) of 0.4 GtC/yr indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For the year 2018 alone, the growth in E(FF) was about 2.1 % and fossil emissions increased to 10.0±0.5 GtC/yr, reaching 10 GtC/yr for the first time in history, E(LUC) was 1.5±0.7 GtC/yr, for total anthropogenic CO2 emissions of 11.5±0.9 GtC/yr (42.5±3.3 GtCO2). Also for 2018, G(ATM) was 5.1±0.2 GtC/yr (2.4±0.1 ppm/yr), S(OCEAN) was 2.6±0.6 GtC/yr, and S(LAND) was 3.5±0.7 GtC/yr, with a B(IM) of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 407.38±0.1 ppm averaged over 2018. For 2019, preliminary data for the first 6–10 months indicate a reduced growth in E(FF) of +0.6 % (range of −0.2 % to 1.5 %) based on national emissions projections for China, the USA, the EU, and India and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. Overall, the mean and trend in the five components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2018, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC/yr persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. A detailed comparison among individual estimates and the introduction of a broad range of observations shows (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land use change emissions over the last decade, (2) a persistent low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent underestimation of the CO2 variability by ocean models outside the tropics. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2018a, b, 2016, 2015a, b, 2014, 2013).

global carbon budget 2019↗
NASA NTRS2002

Defining Top-of-Atmosphere Flux Reference Level for Earth Radiation Budget Studies

To estimate the earth's radiation budget at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) from satellite-measured radiances, it is necessary to account for the finite geometry of the earth and recognize that the earth is a solid body surrounded by a translucent atmosphere of finite thickness that attenuates solar radiation differently at different heights. As a result, in order to account for all of the reflected solar and emitted thermal radiation from the planet by direct integration of satellite-measured radiances, the measurement viewing geometry must be defined at a reference level well above the earth s surface (e.g., 100 km). This ensures that all radiation contributions, including radiation escaping the planet along slant paths above the earth s tangent point, are accounted for. By using a field-of- view (FOV) reference level that is too low (such as the surface reference level), TOA fluxes for most scene types are systematically underestimated by 1-2 W/sq m. In addition, since TOA flux represents a flow of radiant energy per unit area, and varies with distance from the earth according to the inverse-square law, a reference level is also needed to define satellite-based TOA fluxes. From theoretical radiative transfer calculations using a model that accounts for spherical geometry, the optimal reference level for defining TOA fluxes in radiation budget studies for the earth is estimated to be approximately 20 km. At this reference level, there is no need to explicitly account for horizontal transmission of solar radiation through the atmosphere in the earth radiation budget calculation. In this context, therefore, the 20-km reference level corresponds to the effective radiative top of atmosphere for the planet. Although the optimal flux reference level depends slightly on scene type due to differences in effective transmission of solar radiation with cloud height, the difference in flux caused by neglecting the scene-type dependence is less than 0.1%. If an inappropriate TOA flux reference level is used to define satellite TOA fluxes, and horizontal transmission of solar radiation through the planet is not accounted for in the radiation budget equation, systematic errors in net flux of up to 8 W/sq m can result. Since climate models generally use a plane-parallel model approximation to estimate TOA fluxes and the earth radiation budget, they implicitly assume zero horizontal transmission of solar radiation in the radiation budget equation, and do not need to specify a flux reference level. By defining satellite-based TOA flux estimates at a 20-km flux reference level, comparisons with plane-parallel climate model calculations are simplified since there is no need to explicitly correct plane-parallel climate model fluxes for horizontal transmission of solar radiation through a finite earth.

Loeb, N. G.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Toward an Improved Understanding of the Global Fresh Water Budget

The major components of the global fresh water cycle include the evaporation from the land and ocean surfaces, precipitation onto the Ocean and land surfaces, the net atmospheric transport of water from oceanic areas over land, and the return flow of water from the land back into the ocean. The additional components of oceanic water transport are few, principally, the mixing of fresh water through the oceanic boundary layer, transport by ocean currents, and sea ice processes. On land the situation is considerably more complex, and includes the deposition of rain and snow on land; water flow in runoff; infiltration of water into the soil and groundwater; storage of water in soil, lakes and streams, and groundwater; polar and glacial ice; and use of water in vegetation and human activities. Knowledge of the key terms in the fresh water flux budget is poor. Some components of the budget, e.g. precipitation, runoff, storage, are measured with variable accuracy across the globe. We are just now obtaining precise measurements of the major components of global fresh water storage in global ice and ground water. The easily accessible fresh water sources in rivers, lakes and snow runoff are only adequately measured in the more affluent portions of the world. presents proposals are suggesting methods of making global measurements of these quantities from space. At the same time, knowledge of the global fresh water resources under the effects of climate change is of increasing importance and the human population grows. This paper provides an overview of the state of knowledge of the global fresh water budget, evaluating the accuracy of various global water budget measuring and modeling techniques. We review the measurement capabilities of satellite instruments as compared with field validation studies and modeling approaches. Based on these analyses, and on the goal of improved knowledge of the global fresh water budget under the effects of climate change, we suggest priorities for future improvements in global fresh water budget monitoring. The priorities are based on the potential of new approaches to provide improved measurement and modeling systems, and on the need to measure and understand the potential for a speed-up of the global water cycle under the effects of climate change.

Hildebrand, Peter H.↗