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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

United States–Brazil Joint Study: A Preliminary Assessment of Opportunities and Challenges for Small Modular Reactors in Brazil

This report supplies the technical information to enable a broader understanding of different technology choices for nuclear reactors in Brazil. The assessment characteristics of this process include reactor technology, economic costs for deployment, and regulatory analyses of small modular reactors, advanced reactors, and microreactors. The analysis documented in this report provides economic and technological information to assist Brazil, whose official indicative scenarios show an increase in operating nuclear power from 2 Gigawatt in 2022 to 8–10 Gigawatt by 2050, in policy making and long-term energy planning. To protect company proprietary information, the information in this report was limited to publicly available information and therefore can only inform preliminary reactor technology assessments. This report does not recommend or endorse any specific reactor developer or technology.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS2024

Northern Brazil Agriculture: Measuring Soybean Yields in Northern Brazil During El Niño-Southern Oscillation Conditions to Evaluate Trends in Agricultural Production and Support Crop Forecasting, 1984 – 2023

As one of the largest agricultural exporters in the world, Brazil’s crop productivity is highly influential to the world’s food supply. Crop productivity across Brazil is heavily influenced by climatic factors, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which drives spatially heterogenous effects on growing conditions. To understand the relationship between ENSO conditions and staple crop productivity, the team used 1984 – 2023 climatic data and vegetation indices for four Brazilian states: Bahia, Mato Grosso, Pará, and Tocantins. The team focused on soybean growing areas in each state derived from annual land use/land cover classifications. Monthly mean Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) per state were calculated using multispectral imagery from the Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imagery (OLI) sensors. In addition, the team used crop production indices, ENSO anomalies, temperature, and precipitation data in this study. The team found that although monthly ENSO anomaly did have a positive relationship between temperature and a slight negative relationship with precipitation, ENSO and monthly soy NDVI were not significantly correlated. Results find no association between ENSO conditions and NDVI in the study area at the state level spatial resolution during the study period. Furthermore, the team found that there was no correlation between cumulative growing season soy NDVI and detrended soy production yield for this study region at the spatial and temporal scale of the analysis. Findings from this project will be used by the United States Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agriculture Service to inform crop productivity forecasting.

remote sensing↗
DOE OSTI2016

Regionalization of land use impact models for life cycle assessment: Recommendations for their use on the global scale and their applicability to Brazil

Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is the main technique for evaluate the environmental impacts of product life cycles. A major challenge in the field of LCA is spatial and temporal differentiation in Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) methods, especially impacts resulting from land occupation and land transformation. Land use characterization modeling has advanced considerably over the last two decades and many approaches have recently included crucial aspects such as geographic differentiation. Nevertheless, characterization models have so far not been systematically reviewed and evaluated to determine their applicability to South America. Given that Brazil is the largest country in South America, this paper analyzes the main international characterization models currently available in the literature, with a view to recommending regionalized models applicable on a global scale for land use life cycle impact assessments, and discusses their feasibility for regionalized assessment in Brazil. The analytical methodology involves classification based on the following criteria: midpoint/endpoint approach, scope of application, area of data collection, biogeographical differentiation, definition of recovery time and reference situation; followed by an evaluation of thirteen scientific robustness and environmental relevance subcriteria. The results of the scope of application are distributed among 25% of the models developed for the European context, and 50% have a global scope. There is no consensus in the literature about the definition of parameters such biogeographical differentiation and reference situation, and our review indicates that 35% of the models use ecoregion division while 40% use the concept of potential natural vegetation. Four characterization models show high scores in terms of scientific robustness and environmental relevance. These models are recommended for application in land use life cycle impact assessments, and also to serve as references for the development or adaptation of regional methodological procedures for Brazil. - Highlights: • A discussion is made on performing regionalized impact assessments using spatial differentiation in LCA. • A review is made of 20 characterization models for land use impacts in Life Cycle Impact Assessment. • Four characterization models are recommended according to different land use impact pathways for application in Brazil.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Assessment of rainfall variability and future change in Brazil across multiple timescales

Abstract Rainfall variability change under global warming is a crucial issue that may have a substantial impact on society and the environment, as it can directly impact biodiversity, agriculture, and water resources. Observed precipitation trends and climate change projections over Brazil indicate that many sectors of society are potentially highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The purpose of this study is to assess model projections of the change in rainfall variability at various temporal scales over sub‐regions of Brazil. For this, daily data from 30 CMIP5 models for historical (1900–2005) and future (2050–2100) experiments under a high‐emission scenario are used. We assess the change in precipitation variability, applying a band‐pass filter to isolate variability on daily, weekly, monthly, intra‐seasonal, and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) time scales. For historical climate, simulated precipitation is evaluated against observations to establish model reliability. The results show that models largely agree on increases in variability on all timescales in all sub‐regions, except on ENSO timescales where models do not agree on the sign of future change. Brazil will experience more rainfall variability in the future that is, drier or more frequent dry periods and wetter wet periods on daily, weekly, monthly, and intra‐seasonal timescales, even in sub‐regions where future changes in mean rainfall are currently uncertain. This may provide useful information for climate change adaptation across, for example, the agriculture and water resource sectors in Brazil.

Alves, Lincoln M.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Screening for hepatitis D and PEG-Interferon over Tenofovir enhance general hepatitis control efforts in Brazil

Hepatitis D virus (HDV), which requires the presence of hepatitis B virus (HBV), is a deadly yet neglected disease that rapidly leads to liver cancer and disease-induced mortality. This co-dependence creates complex transmission dynamics that make it difficult to predict the efficacy of interventions aimed at HBV and/or HDV control in endemic regions, such as certain municipalities of Brazil, where up to 65% of HBV-infected persons are co-infected. We created a mathematical model that captures the joint transmission dynamics of HBV and HDV, incorporating mother-to-child, sexual and household transmission. With an aim to minimize the number of total infections and disease-induced mortality in 2027, we then determined optimal strategies for Brazil and its sub-regions under a constrained budget, which was dynamically allocated among HBV and HDV screening, HBV and HDV treatment, HBV newborn and adult vaccination, and awareness programs. Three treatment options were considered, namely: Tenofovir, PEGylated-Interferon, and nucleic acid polymers (NAP). The additional cost of HDV screening and the use of a more expensive PEGylated-Interferon are offset by not wasting resources on treating co-infected persons with Tenofovir. The introductory price of NAP treatment must be less than $16,000 per course to become competitive with Tenofovir and PEGylated-Interferon in Brazil. Additional screening for HDV is beneficial, even in a low HBV and HDV endemic regions of Brazil. We recommend PEGylated-Interferon, wherever possible, for both HBV and HDV. If PEGylated-Interferon is not available in abundance, PEGylated-Interferon for co-infections and 4-year Tenofovir treatment for mono-infections is recommended.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Characterizing risk for Dengue in Brazil: a multi-dimensional approach

Dengue is the most common mosquito-borne infectious disease worldwide, primarily caused by the Aedes Aegypti mosquitoes. There are approximately 100-400 million cases annually, with roughly half of the global population at risk. In recent years, and particularly in 2024, there has been a major increase in Dengue cases in North and South America. One of the most heavily affected countries is Brazil, where there has been a 230% increase in cases in 2024 compared to 2023. In a report in June 2024, the CDC released a report indicating 3 risk groups for dengue: infants aged ≤1 year, pregnant women, and adults over 65 years old. Due to the spike in cases, it’s important to understand what factors contribute to Dengue risk and create a model to quantify it in order to inform decisions on how to respond. The main 2 parts of this project were a) exploring the spatial relationships between these 3 Dengue risk group populations and aedes aegypti mosquitoes in Brazil and b) creating an index to quantify risk for Dengue in Brazil. The 10 cities with the highest risk were identified, and it was found that the east coast and southern regions are at highest risk. The findings in this study provide insights into cities and areas of Brazil that should be focused on for targeting Dengue spread.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1998

Minimum High Fire Temperatures Detected in AVIRIS Spectral Measurements from Brazil in 1995

In August and September of 1995 the Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) was deployed to Brazil as part of the NASA Smoke Cloud Aerosol and Radiation experiment in Brazil (SCAR-B). AVIRIS measures spectra from 400 to 2500 nm at 10-nm intervals. These spectra are acquired as images with dimensions of 11 by up to 800 km with 20-m spatial resolution. Spectral images measured by AVIRIS are spectrally, radiometrically, and spatially calibrated. During the SCAR-B deployment, AVIRIS measured more than 300 million spectra of regions of Brazil. A portion of these spectra were acquired over areas of actively burning fires. Actively burning fires emit radiance in the AVIRIS spectral range as a function of temperature. This emitted radiance is expressed from the 2500-nm end of the AVIRIS spectrum to shorter wavelengths as a function of intensity and modeled by the Planck function.. The objective of this research and analysis was to use spectroscopic methods to determine the minimum high temperature of the most intense fires measured in the SCAR-B AVIRIS data set. Spectra measured by AVIRIS with hot sources have been previously examined for volcanic lava and fires in Brazil.

Green, Robert O.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Biomass Burning Emissions in the Cerrado of Brazil Computed with Remote Sensing Data and GIS

Biomass burnin is a common force in much of the developing tropical world where it has wide-ranging environmental impacts. Fire is a component of tropical deforestation and is 0 p often used to clear broad expanses of land for shifting agriculture and cattle ranching. Frequent burning in the tropical savannas is a distinct problem from that of primary forest. In Brazil, most of the burning occurs in the cerrado which occupies approximately 1,800,000 km2, primarily on the great plateau in central Brazil. Wildland and agricultural fires are dramatic sources of regional air pollution in central Brazil. Biomass burning is an important source of a large number of trace gases including greenhouse gases and other chemically active species. Knowledge of trace gas emissions from biomass burning in Brazil is limited by a number of factors, most notably relative emission factors for gases from specific fire types/fuels and accurate estimates of temporal and spatial distribution and extent of fire activity. Estimates of trace gas emissions during September 1992 will be presented that incorporates a digital map of vegetation classes, pyrogenic emission factors calculated from ground and aircraft missions, and Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) fire products derived from Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data. The regional emissions calculated from National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) AVHRR estimates of fire activity will provide an independent estimate for comparison with results obtained by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Transport and Atmospheric Chemistry Near the Equator - Atlantic (TRACE-A) experiments.

Guild, Liane S.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Extreme Water Deficit in Brazil Detected from Space

Extreme droughts have caused significant socioeconomic and environmental damage worldwide. In Brazil, ineffective energy development and water management policies have magnified the impacts of recent severe droughts, which include massive agricultural losses, water supply restrictions, and energy rationing. Spaceborne remote sensing data advance our understanding of the spatiotemporal variability of large-scale droughts and enhance the detection and monitoring of extreme water-related events. In this study, data derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission are used to detect and quantify an extended major drought over eastern Brazil and provide estimates of impacted areas and region-specific water deficits. Two structural breakpoint detection methods were applied to time series of GRACE-based terrestrial water storage anomalies (TWSA), determining when two abrupt changes occurred. One, in particular, defines the beginning of the current drought. Using TWSA, a water loss rate of 26.1 cmyr21 over southeastern Brazil was detected from 2012 to 2015. Based on analysis of Global Land Data Assimilation System(GLDAS) outputs, the extreme drought is mostly related to lower-than-usual precipitation rates, resulting in high soil moisture depletion and lower-than-usual rates of evapotranspiration. A reduction of 2023 of precipitation over an extended period of 3 years is enough to raise serious water scarcity conditions in the country. Correlations between monthly time series of both grid-based TWSA and ground-based water storage measurements at 16 reservoirs located within southeastern Brazil varied from 0.42 to 0.82. Differences are mainly explained by reservoir sizes and proximity to the drought nucleus.

terrestrial↗
DOE OSTI2017

The attractive concept of simplicity in environmental impact assessment: Perceptions of outcomes in southeastern Brazil

Pressures are mounting for the simplification of environmental impact assessment (EIA). This phenomenon is drawing increasing scholarly attention, but studies have not gone far beyond speculating what could happen as a result of recently implemented or proposed regulatory changes. This paper takes a more longitudinal look at simplified EIAs. The main objective was to analyze the perceived outcomes of a number of simplified EIA processes, using Brazil as the empirical context. More specifically, this paper aimed at understanding: 1) how simplified EIAs have been conceptualized and implemented in southeastern Brazil; and 2) how developers and civil servants in that region perceive the outcomes of simplified EIAs. This study adopted a sequential mixed method research approach. Data was collected through literature reviews, 261 telephone-based interviews and 10 face-to-face interviews. Degrees of EIA simplification can vary significantly within and across jurisdictions. In any case, simplification is often framed as a win-win solution to EIA ineffectiveness, through which regulatory and procedural changes are made to ease the process, while, at the same time, maintaining or providing better environmental protection. This approach is more frequently applied to potentially low-impact processes. Chi-square tests of the data collected through telephone interviews in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais indicated that developers tend to perceive EIA processes as difficult and slow regardless of how simplified it is. Most civil servants, who were directly involved in the implementation of simplified EIAs in state environmental agencies, argued that simplified EIAs are driven mostly by environmental agencies, as these institutions have long been unable to cope with an ever-increasing load of license applications. Policy outcomes of simplified EIAs in the territory are not sufficiently monitored by state agencies. Civil servants revealed concerns about the potential long term effects of EIA simplification on the ground, as they have had limited resources for audits and inspections. - Highlights: •Simplified EIA is conceptualized. •We analyze how simplified EIA is implemented and perceived in Brazil. •Developers perceived EIA as difficult and slow regardless of how simplified it was. •State agencies' low institutional capacity is a key driver of simplification. •Policy outcomes of simplified EIAs in the territory are not monitored.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Impact of soiling on Si and CdTe PV modules: Case study in different Brazil climate zones

Soiling, particulate accumulation on photovoltaic (PV) module surfaces, reduces the available solar resource and the resulting generated device power. This case-study summarizes initial results of 5-year research on the contrasting soiling conditions in the tropical, subtropical, and semi-arid climates in Brazil. A major objective is to present a case study of the effects of soiling on PV module performance in different Brazil climate zones that represent the primary areas for the current and expanding Brazil solar installations. For this, the paper presents methodologies to quantify the soiling ratio (SRatio) and soiling rate (SRate) for two representative commercial technologies, polycrystalline or multicrystalline silicon (mc-Si) and thin-film cadmium telluride (CdTe) modules, through soiling monitoring stations deployed in the selected climate regions. An aim is to add to the growing soiling-research knowledge base through addressing these key factors and their relationships to critical electrical, solar resource, thermal, and local meteorological and environmental parameters. This paper presents, evaluates, and compares soiling rates and losses in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais (Equatorial Tropical: 19.92° S, 43.99° W), Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul (Humid-Subtropical: 30.05° S, 51.17° W), and Brotas de Macaúbas, Bahia (Semi-Arid: 12.00° S, 42.63° W). The results show that soiling is moderate in all 3-regions, for example with 0.1%/day < SRate < 0.2%/day for Belo Horizonte. Precipitation dominates the cleaning of the modules in the summertime in this climate zone, while it is the major factor year-round in Rio Grande do Sul. Wind is the major issue mitigating the soiling accumulation for the Bahia installation. The methodology incorporates several key refinements, including the normalization and adjustment for the meteorological parameters (temperature, irradiance, wind, precipitation). The evaluations include the region-specific differing effects of non-uniform soiling, natural cleaning, and ambient temperatures.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

Selenium Accumulation, Speciation and Localization in Brazil Nuts (Bertholletia excelsa H.B.K.)

More than a billion people worldwide may be selenium (Se) deficient, and supplementation with Se-rich Brazil nuts may be a good strategy to prevent deficiency. Since different forms of Se have different nutritional value, and Se is toxic at elevated levels, careful seed characterization is important. Variation in Se concentration and correlations of this element with other nutrients were found in two batches of commercially available nuts. Selenium tissue localization and specification were further determined. Mean Se levels were between 28 and 49 mg kg-1, with up to 8-fold seed-to-seed variation (n = 13) within batches. Brazil nut Se was mainly in organic form. While present throughout the seed, Se was most concentrated in a ring 1 to 2 mm below the surface. While healthy, Brazil nuts should be consumed in moderation. Consumption of one seed (5 g) from a high-Se area meets its recommended daily allowance; the recommended serving size of 30 g may exceed the allowable daily intake (400 μg) or even its toxicity threshold (1200 μg). Based on these findings, the recommended serving size may be re-evaluated, consumers should be warned not to exceed the serving size and the seed may be sold as part of mixed nuts, to avoid excess Se intake.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1998

Minimum High Fire Temperatures Detected in AVIRIS Spectral Measurements from Brazil in 1995

In August and September of 1995 the Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) was deployed to Brazil as part of the NASA Smoke Cloud Aerosol and Radiation experiment in Brazil (SCAR-B). AVIRIS measures spectra from 400 to 2500 nm at 10-nm intervals. These spectra are acquired as images with dimensions of 11 by up to 800 km with 20-m spatial resolution. Spectral images measured by AVIRIS are spectrally, radiometrically, and spatially calibrated. During the SCAR-B deployment, AVIRIS measured more than 300 million spectra of regions of Brazil. A portion of these spectra were acquired over areas of actively burning fires. Actively burning fires emit radiance in the AVIRIS spectral range as a function of temperature. This emitted radiance is expressed from the 2500-nm end of the AVIRIS spectrum to shorter wavelengths as a function of intensity and modeled by the Planck function. The objective of this research and analysis was to use spectroscopic methods to determine the minimum high temperature of the most intense fires measured in the SCAR-B AVIRIS data set. Spectra measured by AVIRIS with hot sources have been previously examined for volcanic lava.

Green, Robert O.↗
DOE OSTI2017

Reforming EIA systems: A critical review of proposals in Brazil

Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) systems are under pressure in many countries, driven by a call for efficiency and streamlining. Such a phenomenon is particularly clear in Brazil, where, in the past few years, a number of influential associations put forward documents proposing significant changes to environmental licensing and impact assessment regulations. So far, there is no publicly available information about any initiative towards scrutinizing those proposals. The objective of this study was to critically review the merits and drawbacks of the changes proposed in those documents. The analysis triangulated content analysis, focus group and online survey data. The focus group included ten seasoned Brazilian EIA specialists; the survey, based on Likert-scale and open-ended questions, resulted in 322 valid responses from EIA professionals. Results show that the proposals generally agree that the current EIA system, while playing a key role in mitigating impacts and enhancing project design, needs many changes. Nonetheless, the proposals neither offered solutions to overcome political, technical and budget barriers, nor established a sense of priority of the most urgent issues. Findings from the focus group and the survey signaled that a number of proposed actions might face public outcry, and that those changes that do not depend on legislative action are more likely to be implementable. Previous studies about EIA reform focused mostly on the context of developed countries after changes had taken place. This study, while addressing the perspective of a large developing country in a “before-reform” stage, shows that capacity-building is a key requirement in EIA reform. - Highlights: • Brazil's EIA system is under strong pressure for change. • Findings corroborate ineffectiveness in current system. • There are tensions as to the best approaches to overcome problems. • Exact effects of proposals are uncertain. • Low institutional capacity can play strong role in driving EIA reform.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Streamlining or sidestepping? Political pressure to revise environmental licensing and EIA in Brazil

In the Anthropocene, governments are increasingly being forced to take action to minimize or reverse human impacts on the environment. One of the most widespread legal instruments to prevent negative impacts on the environment is Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA). Almost all countries have an EIA system in place aimed at mitigating the diverse impacts causing by development projects. A common drawback of such systems is that they are often ineffective and time-consuming, and are therefore frequently viewed by politicians as “in the way” of development. This is the case in Brazil, where EIA has had a very limited influence on decision-making and where environment reforms (e.g. the new Forest Code) have often been strongly influenced by powerful lobbies (e.g. agribusiness groups, industry actors, etc.) and conservative legislators. Continuing this trend, the most recent political developments have seen the proposal of a series of amendments aimed at “streamlining” the Brazilian EIA system. In this viewpoint, we provide an in depth analysis of the proposed changes, highlighting the serious consequences that would accompany the weakening of environmental licensing and EIA legislation in Brazil.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2016

Failure mode and effects analysis based risk profile assessment for stereotactic radiosurgery programs at three cancer centers in Brazil

Purpose: The goal of this study was to evaluate the safety and quality management program for stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) treatment processes at three radiotherapy centers in Brazil by using three industrial engineering tools (1) process mapping, (2) failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA), and (3) fault tree analysis. Methods: The recommendations of Task Group 100 of American Association of Physicists in Medicine were followed to apply the three tools described above to create a process tree for SRS procedure for each radiotherapy center and then FMEA was performed. Failure modes were identified for all process steps and values of risk priority number (RPN) were calculated from O, S, and D (RPN = O × S × D) values assigned by a professional team responsible for patient care. Results: The subprocess treatment planning was presented with the highest number of failure modes for all centers. The total number of failure modes were 135, 104, and 131 for centers I, II, and III, respectively. The highest RPN value for each center is as follows: center I (204), center II (372), and center III (370). Failure modes with RPN ≥ 100: center I (22), center II (115), and center III (110). Failure modes characterized by S ≥ 7, represented 68% of the failure modes for center III, 62% for center II, and 45% for center I. Failure modes with RPNs values ≥100 and S ≥ 7, D ≥ 5, and O ≥ 5 were considered as high priority in this study. Conclusions: The results of the present study show that the safety risk profiles for the same stereotactic radiotherapy process are different at three radiotherapy centers in Brazil. Although this is the same treatment process, this present study showed that the risk priority is different and it will lead to implementation of different safety interventions among the centers. Therefore, the current practice of applying universal device-centric QA is not adequate to address all possible failures in clinical processes at different radiotherapy centers. Integrated approaches to device-centric and process specific quality management program specific to each radiotherapy center are the key to a safe quality management program.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Using heterogeneous data to identify signatures of dengue outbreaks at fine spatio-temporal scales across Brazil

Dengue virus remains a significant public health challenge in Brazil, and seasonal preparation efforts are hindered by variable intra- and interseasonal dynamics. Here, we present a framework for characterizing weekly dengue activity at the Brazilian mesoregion level from 2010–2016 as time series properties that are relevant to forecasting efforts, focusing on outbreak shape, seasonal timing, and pairwise correlations in magnitude and onset. In addition, we use a combination of 18 satellite remote sensing imagery, weather, clinical, mobility, and census data streams and regression methods to identify a parsimonious set of covariates that explain each time series property. The models explained 54% of the variation in outbreak shape, 38% of seasonal onset, 34% of pairwise correlation in outbreak timing, and 11% of pairwise correlation in outbreak magnitude. Regions that have experienced longer periods of drought sensitivity, as captured by the “normalized burn ratio,” experienced less intense outbreaks, while regions with regular fluctuations in relative humidity had less regular seasonal outbreaks. Both the pairwise correlations in outbreak timing and outbreak trend between mesoresgions were best predicted by distance. Our analysis also revealed the presence of distinct geographic clusters where dengue properties tend to be spatially correlated. Forecasting models aimed at predicting the dynamics of dengue activity need to identify the most salient variables capable of contributing to accurate predictions. Our findings show that successful models may need to leverage distinct variables in different locations and be catered to a specific task, such as predicting outbreak magnitude or timing characteristics, to be useful. This advocates in favor of “adaptive models” rather than “one-size-fits-all” models. The results of this study can be applied to improving spatial hierarchical or target-focused forecasting models of dengue activity across Brazil.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗