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The mutual refinement theory, a method for refining world models in a reactive system, is described. The method detects failures, explains their causes, and repairs the approximate models which cause the failures. The approach focuses on using one approximate model to refine another.
In the era of precision cosmology, ensuring the integrity of data analysis through blinding techniques is paramount — a challenge particularly relevant for the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). DESI represents a monumental effort to map the cosmic web, with the goal to measure the redshifts of tens of millions of galaxies and quasars. Given the data volume and the impact of the findings, the potential for confirmation bias poses a significant challenge. To address this, we implement and validate a comprehensive blind analysis strategy for DESI Data Release 1 (DR1), tailored to the specific observables DESI is most sensitive to: Baryonic Acoustic Oscillations (BAO), Redshift-Space Distortion (RSD) and primordial non-Gaussianities (PNG). We carry out the blinding at the catalog level, implementing shifts in the redshifts of the observed galaxies to blind for BAO and RSD signals and weights to blind for PNG through a scale-dependent bias. We validate the blinding technique on mocks as well as on data by applying a second blinding layer to perform a series of sanity checks; the latter allows probing complexities in real data not captured in mocks. We find that the blinding strategy alters the data vector in a controlled way, and the BAO and RSD analysis choices are robust to blinding. The successful validation of the blinding strategy paves the way for the unblinded DESI DR1 analysis, alongside future blind analyses with DESI and other surveys.
We evaluate the performance of the catalog-level blind analysis technique (blinding) presented in Brieden et al. (2020) in the context of a fixed template power spectrum and bispectrum analysis. This blinding scheme, which is tailored for galaxy redshift surveys similar to the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI), has two components: the so-called “AP blinding” (concerning the dilation parameters α$_{∥}$, α$_{⊥}$) and “RSD blinding” (redshift space distortions, affecting the growth rate parameter f). Through extensive testing, including checks for the RSD part in cubic boxes, the impact of AP blinding on mocks with realistic survey sky coverage, and the implementation of a full AP+RSD blinding pipeline, our analysis demonstrates the effectiveness of the technique in preserving the integrity of cosmological parameter estimation when the analysis includes the bispectrum statistic. We emphasize the critical role of sophisticated — and difficult to accidentally unblind — blinding methods in precision cosmology.
Introduction: Technology for enhancing outreach, like 3D printing, and science communication products, such as videos and podcasts, can be utilized within the planetary science community, especially for the engagement and excitement of current or upcoming planetary exploration missions. However, these communication products can also be further enhanced for the benefit of the blind and deaf communities. While such products may already be readily available, such projects are not easily accessible to blind and/or deaf certified educators, which often rely on making their own resources or do not have the funds to provide such resources (e.g., cost of 3D printers or cost of braille books). The planetary science community can have better practices to reach these broader audiences. Best practices can include transcripts from podcasts, transcripts in videos, and large-font captions. Images on websites and social media accounts should also include alt-text descriptive captions. 3D printing can also enhance planetary science for the blind community, through tactile posters, maps, and pamphlets. Planetary data can also be augmented by providing different tactile geological maps (e.g., topography or various datasets), and audio-visual videos freely available for educators. Visual Engagement: Visual engagement consists of several avenues to consider, the three main themes includes: 1) swag; 2) videos; 3) interactive exploration. Swag can include the fun visual take-home materials, such as stickers, posters, bookmarks, etc. Videos can include educational-specific videos (available freely via YouTube or by other educational-specific streaming avenues, such as Nebula or Curiosity Stream), provided they have Closed Captioning (CC). The use of QR codes to such videos or websites can also benefit to being added on swag. Interactive exploration can also be sub-divided by different types of engagement. A popular and still fairly new technology for public engagement is the use of virtual reality (VR). While this has been mainly for martian and lunar surface exploration [1], the deaf communities can benefit from VR through a more extensive look at our solar system and beyond (for example, a VR experience of the flight path, or visual map of the heliosphere/dynamics of our Sun). Audio Engagement: Audio tools can also be a useful avenue of communication, especially for the blind communities. Audio archiving can certainly be transcripts from the video engagements, but also the use of podcasts can also be a benefit. Podcasting can take on two forms: 1) interview engagement; and 2) update engagement. For interviews, scientists can communicate with STEM-specific podcast platforms to make other listener-bases aware of what is going on with a specific mission. For update-type communication, missions may opt to have an archived podcast of news, updates, and the teams involved. The most important aspect of such podcasts would be for the need of complimentary transcripts (including descriptive transcripts if sounds are included), and the limited use of jargon. Research Engagement: There have been several examples of involving the blind and low-vision communities in citizen science, such as through the NASA Heliophysics division. Examples include the NASA PUNCH (Polarimeter to Unify the Corona and Heliosphere) mission led by the Southwest Research Institute [2], which include blind and visually-impaired citizens to assist in the Sun’s coronal rhythms.” Another example is the Eclipse Soundscapes: Citizen Science Project (ES:CSP), which documents observations of acoustical changes of nature and ecosystems during solar eclipse events [3]. Inclusivity: A major theme that is necessary for public engagement is inclusivity and the awareness of reaching broader audiences. Outreach to include hearing/seeing impaired communities are still lacking in the sciences. There are several opportunities that the planetary sciences could take. Other projects that have emerged from the space sciences include adding transcripts to visual engagement [4], and the use of 3D printing for the visually-impaired [5]. References: [1] Olgin, J. (2020) 51st LPSC, Abstract 2137. [2] https://scitechdaily.com/outreach-for-nasa-punch-mission-embraces-ancient-and-modern-sun-watching-theme/ [3] https://science.nasa.gov/science-activation-team/eclipse-soundscapes [4] NASA International Observe the Moon Night (Blind and Deaf Accessible), Youtube Video ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=neHCfg0S3-Q) [5] Richardson, J., et al. (2018) AGU Fall Meeting, Abstract ED23F-0963.
The next generation of spectroscopic surveys is expected to achieve an unprecedented level of accuracy in the measurement of cosmological parameters. To avoid confirmation bias and thereby improve the reliability of these results, blinding procedures become a standard practice in the cosmological analyses of such surveys. Blinding is especially crucial when the impact of observational systematics is important relative to the cosmological signal, and a detection of that signal would have significant implications. This is the case for local primordial non-gaussianity, as probed by the scale-dependent bias of the galaxy power spectrum at large scales that are heavily sensitive to the dependence of the target selection on the imaging quality, known as imaging systematics. We propose a blinding method for the scale-dependent bias signature of local primordial non-gaussianity at the density field level which consists in generating a set of weights for the data that replicate the scale-dependent bias. The applied blinding is predictable, and can be straightforwardly combined with other catalog-level blinding procedures that have been designed for the baryon acoustic oscillation and redshift space distortion signals. The procedure is validated through simulations that replicate data from the first year of observation of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument, but may find applications to other upcoming spectroscopic surveys.
The daily rhythm of melatonin influences multiple physiological measures, including sleep tendency, circadian rhythms, and reproductive function in seasonally breeding mammals. The biological signal for photoperiodic changes in seasonally breeding mammals is a change in the duration of melatonin secretion, which in a natural environment reflects the different durations of daylight across the year, with longer nights leading to a longer duration of melatonin secretion. These seasonal changes in the duration of melatonin secretion do not simply reflect the known acute suppression of melatonin secretion by ocular light exposure, but also represent long-term changes in the endogenous nocturnal melatonin episode that persist in constant conditions. As the eyes of totally blind individuals do not transmit ocular light information, we hypothesized that the duration of the melatonin secretory episode in blind subjects would be longer than those in sighted individuals, who are exposed to light for all their waking hours in an urban environment. We assessed the melatonin secretory profile during constant posture, dim light conditions in 17 blind and 157 sighted adults, all of whom were healthy and using no prescription or nonprescription medications. The duration of melatonin secretion was not significantly different between blind and sighted individuals. Healthy blind individuals after years without ocular light exposure do not have a longer duration of melatonin secretion than healthy sighted individuals.
This study assessed whether stationary auditory information could affect body and head sway (as does visual and haptic information) in sighted and congenitally blind people. Two speakers, one placed adjacent to each ear, significantly stabilized center-of-foot-pressure sway in a tandem Romberg stance, while neither a single speaker in front of subjects nor a head-mounted sonar device reduced center-of-pressure sway. Center-of-pressure sway was reduced to the same level in the two-speaker condition for sighted and blind subjects. Both groups also evidenced reduced head sway in the two-speaker condition, although blind subjects' head sway was significantly larger than that of sighted subjects. The advantage of the two-speaker condition was probably attributable to the nature of distance compared with directional auditory information. The results rule out a deficit model of spatial hearing in blind people and are consistent with one version of a compensation model. Analysis of maximum cross-correlations between center-of-pressure and head sway, and associated time lags suggest that blind and sighted people may use different sensorimotor strategies to achieve stability.
Smokescreen is an open-source Python library for data-vector concealment (blinding) in cosmological analyses. Data-vector blinding works by applying cosmology-dependent shifts to the observed data vector, moving it away from the true cosmological signal without affecting its statistical properties, so that analysts cannot infer the true result until the analysis is frozen and the blinding is lifted. The package computes these shifts using Firecrown likelihoods applied to data vectors stored in the SACC format, ensuring that the theoretical model used for blinding is identical to that used for inference whilst remaining agnostic to the specific observable being blinded. To prevent accidental unblinding, the original SACC file, containing the true cosmology, is encrypted. Although developed for the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), Smokescreen is applicable to any experiment using Firecrown likelihoods and the SACC data format.
Haptic cues from fingertip contact with a stable surface attenuate body sway in subjects even when the contact forces are too small to provide physical support of the body. We investigated how haptic cues derived from contact of a cane with a stationary surface at low force levels aids postural control in sighted and congenitally blind individuals. Five sighted (eyes closed) and five congenitally blind subjects maintained a tandem Romberg stance in five conditions: (1) no cane; (2,3) touch contact (< 2 N of applied force) while holding the cane in a vertical or slanted orientation; and (4,5) force contact (as much force as desired) in the vertical and slanted orientations. Touch contact of a cane at force levels below those necessary to provide significant physical stabilization was as effective as force contact in reducing postural sway in all subjects, compared to the no-cane condition. A slanted cane was far more effective in reducing postural sway than was a perpendicular cane. Cane use also decreased head displacement of sighted subjects far more than that of blind subjects. These results suggest that head movement control is linked to postural control through gaze stabilization reflexes in sighted subjects; such reflexes are absent in congenitally blind individuals and may account for their higher levels of head displacement.
We present and validate a blinding method for the Lyman-$α$ (Ly$α$) forest analysis based on a modification of the Alcock-Paczynski test. In order to hide the background expansion history, the method employs a geometrical shift of each quasar (QSO) forest in wavelength space, once the quasar continuum has been fitted and the fluctuation field is extracted. The redshift positions for the QSO sample are also changed in a consistent manner. We show that the method remains effective when applied to real data, where contamination from metals and Lyman-$β$ is intrinsically mixed with the Lyman-$α$ forest. This limitation is primarily visible in the 1D correlation function, where other blinding strategies can mitigate the effect. To assess its effectiveness, the prescription is tested against a series of datasets of increasing complexity: from idealized low-noise mocks, to realistic DESI year one synthetic datasets, and finally to data from DESI first data release (DR1), using both the auto (Ly$α\times$Ly$α$) and cross (Ly$α\times$ QSO) correlations. We find that the method robustly shifts the BAO peak position from the 3D correlation functions to the expected value for cosmology changes of around 5% in the matter content, without altering the shape of the posteriors in the model parameters. In conclusion, this catalog-level blinding strategy is a viable method for cosmological inference with the Lyman-$α$ forest, particularly if a cross-analysis with other tracers using the same blinding strategy is pursued.
The possibilities are considered that modern electronics and engineering have to offer the individual with a damaged or disordered nervous system, especially the blind person. Discussed are the incidence and principal causes of blindness, past research activities, and a capsule review of some of the more interesting programs designed to provide the blind with the ability to be mobile in their environment and to read printed matter.
A comprehensive study of infinite phased arrays of printed dipole antennas is presented, with emphasis on the scan blindness phenomenon. A rigorous and efficient moment method procedure is used to calculate the array impedance versus scan angle. Data are presented for the input reflection coefficient for various element spacings and substrate parameters. A simple theory, based on coupling from Floquet modes to surface wave modes on the substrate, is shown to predict the occurrence of scan blindness. Measurements from a waveguide simulator of a blindness condition confirm the theory.
Relationships between minimum entropy deconvolution, developed primarily for geophysics applications, and blind equalization are pointed out. It is seen that a large class of existing blind equalization algorithms are directly related to the scale-invariant cost functions used in minimum entropy deconvolution. Thus the extensive analyses of these cost functions can be directly applied to blind equalization, including the important asymptotic results of Donoho.
Blind-anchor-nut-installation fixture, BANIF, developed for replacing or installing anchor nuts in blind holes or other inaccessible places. Attachment of anchor nut to BANIF enables placement of anchor nut on blind side of component.
We undertook axial surface mapping of selected wrinkle ridges on Solis Planum, Mars in order to assess the subsurface geometry of blind thrusts proposed to exist beneath them. This work builds on previous work that defined structural families of wrinkle ridges based on their surface morphology in this region. Although a growing consensus exists for models of wrinkle ridge kinematics and mechanics, a number of current problems remain. These include the origin of topographic offset across the edges of wrinkle ridges, the relationship between broad arches and superposed ridges, the origin of smaller wrinkles, and perhaps most importantly, the trajectory of blind thrusts that underlie wrinkle ridges and accommodate shortening at deeper crustal levels. We are particularly interested in defining the depths at which blind thrusts flatten under wrinkle ridges in order to provide constraints on the brittle-ductile transition during Early Hesperian time. We also seek to test whether wrinkle ridges on Solis Planum develop above reactivated faults or newly formed ones.
The emergence of Advance Air Mobility (AAM) will increase the number and types of aerial vehicles operating in shared airspaces, which will subsequently affect the amount of actionable data that ground control station operators (GCSOs) will be expected to manage. In this environment, GCSOs are particularly susceptible to the visual perceptual phenomenon known as change blindness, in which a stimulus undergoes a change without the change being noticed by its observer. A machine agent designed to detect change blindness and mitigate the effects could improve human agent performance in a data-saturated remote operations environment. The objective of this paper is to describe a proof-of-concept system architecture that integrates real-time eye tracking and vehicle telemetry data to prevent human-agent errors resulting from change blindness while operating aircraft from a remote ground control station (GCS).
The emergence of Advance Air Mobility (AAM) will increase the number and types of aerial vehicles operating in shared airspaces, which will subsequently affect the amount of actionable data that ground control station operators (GCSOs) will be expected to manage. In this environment, GCSOs are particularly susceptible to the visual perceptual phenomenon known as change blindness, in which a stimulus undergoes a change without the change being noticed by its observer. A machine agent designed to detect change blindness and mitigate the effects could improve human agent performance in a data-saturated remote operations environment. The objective of this paper is to describe a proof-of-concept system architecture that integrates real-time eye tracking and vehicle telemetry data to prevent human-agent errors resulting from change blindness while operating aircraft from a remote ground control station (GCS).
While confidence in photovoltaic (PV) modeling software has always been essential, the rapid pace of new PV plant developments makes accuracy and credibility more critical than ever. Independent assessments, particularly through blind modeling comparisons, are therefore necessary to ensure unbiased benchmarking across PV modeling software. Previous studies have been limited by a narrow range of models compared, anonymized results, or system size. This study presents results from the first-ever onymous blind modeling comparison, evaluated using both lab- and utility-scale fixed-tilt, monofacial, south-facing systems at sub-hourly time intervals. Seven commercially used PV software tools were compared: 3E SynaptiQ, PlantPredict, PVsyst, RatedPower, SAM, SolarFarmer, and Solargis Evaluate. Predictions were submitted directly by software representatives, providing unique insights into each software’s implementation and resulting prediction behavior. Notable features, including plane-of-array (POA) transposition model, module temperature model, shading model, and performance model were analyzed and compared. Four summary tables compile these features of the software, serving as a resource to help users understand the methodological differences and select the most suitable software for their applications. The software tools show deviations from mean error in annual yield up to 2.5 % in the lab-scale system, increasing to 6.0 % for the utility-scale system. These differences arise from a combination of user decisions and the inherent behavior of the software, indicating the need for continuous and rigorous validation of modeling methods using these software tools against complex, real-world systems.