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At least 19 records

Airburst & Blast Damage Modeling Sensitivities for Asteroid Impact Risk Assessment

Blast overpressure from a high-energy airburst or surface impact is the primary source of damage from potentially hazardous asteroid strikes. There are many sources of uncertainty in evaluating these potential damage risks, both in the approaches used to model the entry, breakup, and airburst behaviors of diverse asteroid properties, and in the blast modeling approaches used to estimate the ground damage from these very large-scale, high-energy events. In this study, we use NASA’s Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk (PAIR) model to investigate trends and sensitivities in asteroid airburst altitudes and the resulting blast damage estimates across a range of asteroid sizes. In particular, we show how uncertainties in asteroid breakup behavior and effective airburst altitudes combine with height-of-burst (HOB) blast damage models to produce key sensitivities and trends in the amount of damage expected from different asteroid sizes and airburst altitudes. We show airburst altitude ranges and probabilities stemming from asteroid entry and breakup modeling uncertainties, compare differences between traditional nuclear-based HOB blast models and simulation-based HOB models for larger asteroid energies, and show how the resulting interplay between likely burst altitudes and optimal burst heights affects blast damage trends across different asteroid sizes. Finally, we combine the relative likelihoods of asteroid sizes, airburst altitudes, and resulting blast damage severity to evaluate what airburst regimes pose the highest overall level of risk (when considering both the relative likelihood and scale of potential damage) for a mid-sized asteroid threat scenario. Results show what asteroid size regimes are most sensitive to airburst and blast modeling uncertainties, provide insight into nonintuitive trends in the size and severity of blast damage expected from different airburst events, and highlight where additional blast modeling studies or refinements may help improve future impact risk estimates

ATAP

A Monte Carlo Approach to Modeling the Breakup of the Space Launch System EM-1 Core Stage with an Integrated Blast and Fragment Catalogue

The Liquid Propellant Fragment Overpressure Acceleration Model (L-FOAM) is a tool developed by Bangham Engineering Incorporated (BEi) that produces a representative debris cloud from an exploding liquid-propellant launch vehicle. Here it is applied to the Core Stage (CS) of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Space Launch System (SLS launch vehicle). A combination of Probability Density Functions (PDF) based on empirical data from rocket accidents and applicable tests, as well as SLS specific geometry are combined in a MATLAB script to create unique fragment catalogues each time L-FOAM is run-tailored for a Monte Carlo approach for risk analysis. By accelerating the debris catalogue with the BEi blast model for liquid hydrogen / liquid oxygen explosions, the result is a fully integrated code that models the destruction of the CS at a given point in its trajectory and generates hundreds of individual fragment catalogues with initial imparted velocities. The BEi blast model provides the blast size (radius) and strength (overpressure) as probabilities based on empirical data and anchored with analytical work. The coupling of the L-FOAM catalogue with the BEi blast model is validated with a simulation of the Project PYRO S-IV destruct test. When running a Monte Carlo simulation, L-FOAM can accelerate all catalogues with the same blast (mean blast, 2 σ blast, etc.), or vary the blast size and strength based on their respective probabilities. L-FOAM then propagates these fragments until impact with the earth. Results from L-FOAM include a description of each fragment (dimensions, weight, ballistic coefficient, type and initial location on the rocket), imparted velocity from the blast, and impact data depending on user desired application. LFOAM application is for both near-field (fragment impact to escaping crew capsule) and far-field (fragment ground impact footprint) safety considerations. The user is thus able to use statistics from a Monte Carlo set of L-FOAM catalogues to quantify risk for a multitude of potential CS destruct scenarios. Examples include the effect of warning time on the survivability of an escaping crew capsule or the maximum fragment velocities generated by the ignition of leaking propellants in internal cavities.

Richardson, Erin

Results of tests of MTA-2 TPS on the SRB hold-down bolt blast container

The four solid rocket booster (SRB) hold-down posts are fastened to the mobile launch platform (MLP) with four large nuts. At liftoff the nuts are split with explosive changes to release the SRB/Shuttle. A blast container is placed over the nuts to protect the vehicle from flying debris. The blast container is a reusable part and has to be protected from aerodynamic heating during flight. The thermal protection system (TPS) used to protect these blast containers is cork. Fitting the flat cork sheet to this hemispherical shaped blast container is both time consuming and expensive. Another problem is removing the charred cork and epoxy glue from the blast containers. Replacements of this cork with another TPS material such as MTA-2 was examined. Heating rates along the centerline of the forward facing areas of the blast container were determined. The feasibility of using 1/2 in. MTA-2 on the SRB blast containers for protection from ascent, plume impingement and reentry heating is demonstrated.

Dean, W. G.

On the Propagation and Interaction of Spherical Blast Waves

The characteristics and the scaling laws of isolated spherical blast waves have been briefly reviewed. Both self-similar solutions and numerical solutions of isolated blast waves are discussed. Blast profiles in the near-field (strong shock region) and the far-field (weak shock region) are examined. Particular attention is directed at the blast overpressure and shock propagating speed. Consideration is also given to the interaction of spherical blast waves. Test data for the propagation and interaction of spherical blast waves emanating from explosives placed in the vicinity of a solid propellant stack are presented. These data are discussed with regard to the scaling laws concerning the decay of blast overpressure.

Kandula, Max

Probabilistic Blast Damage Modeling Uncertainties and Sensitivities

Blast overpressure is the predominant source of ground damage posed by potentially hazardous asteroid strikes. Estimates of the extent, severity, and likelihoods of potential blast damage regions will be one of the key metrics needed to mount civil defense or disaster response plans in the face of an impending impact. However, there are many inherent sources of uncertainty in evaluating the damage, both in characterizing the properties of the incoming object and in the approaches used to model the entry/impact and resulting damage, which make it difficult to produce a single ‘accurate’ or ‘best guess’ prediction of ground damage. The current 2021 PDC hypothetical impact scenario poses a particular challenge due to its short warning time. The need for rapid disaster response to prepare for an immanent impact, combined with lack of observational opportunities to refine basic knowledge about the object’s basic size and properties, make understanding the range and relative likelihood of consequences particularly critical. The potential damage caused by these blasts can be evaluated using a range of modeling and simulation approaches and levels of fidelity. Fast-running engineering-level models can be used to run large numbers of probabilistically sampled cases covering wide variations of uncertain properties or parameters. High-fidelity simulations, on the other hand, can capture more detailed/accurate blast physics, but can only be performed for a small selection of specific cases, requiring many assumptions to be made about the initial object and its unpredictable entry/breakup characteristics. In order to provide a more complete picture of the potential threat for effective disaster response, both types of analysis need to be employed together. In this approach, high-fidelity simulations are used to refine and anchor engineering models, and the probabilistic engineering models are used to evaluate broad parameters spaces and guide selection of the most pertinent simulation cases for a given scenario. This presentation expands upon the probabilistic asteroid impact risk assessments being performed as part of the 2021 PDC hypothetical impact exercise, focusing on key aspects of blast damage modeling uncertainties and sensitivities. We review the current modeling and simulation approaches employed in the current assessment, compare the relative levels of uncertainty stemming from each main element of the problem (i.e., knowledge of the asteroid properties, modeling of the atmospheric entry/breakup and airburst, and estimates of the ground damage from the resulting blasts waves), and highlight any notable trends and sensitivities for the current scenario case.

SMD

Characterization of blast waves induced by femtosecond laser irradiation in solid targets

Blast waves have been produced in solid target by irradiation with short-pulse high-intensity lasers. The mechanism of production relies on energy deposition from the hot electrons produced by laser–matter interaction, producing a steep temperature gradient inside the target. Hot electrons also produce preheating of the material ahead of the blast wave and expansion of the target rear side, which results in a complex blast wave propagation dynamic. Several diagnostics have been used to characterize the hot electron source, the induced preheating and the velocity of the blast wave. Results are compared to numerical simulations. These show how blast wave pressure is initially very large (more than 100 Mbar), but it decreases very rapidly during propagation.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND

Status on Genetic Resistance to Rice Blast Disease in the Post-Genomic Era

Rice blast, caused by Magnaporthe oryzae, is a major threat to global rice production, necessitating the development of resistant cultivars through genetic improvement. Breakthroughs in rice genomics, including the complete genome sequencing of japonica and indica subspecies and the availability of various sequence-based molecular markers, have greatly advanced the genetic analysis of blast resistance. To date, approximately 122 blast-resistance genes have been identified, with 39 of these genes cloned and molecularly characterized. The application of these findings in marker-assisted selection (MAS) has significantly improved rice breeding, allowing for the efficient integration of multiple resistance genes into elite cultivars, enhancing both the durability and spectrum of resistance. Pangenomic studies, along with AI-driven tools like AlphaFold2, RoseTTAFold, and AlphaFold3, have further accelerated the identification and functional characterization of resistance genes, expediting the breeding process. Future rice blast disease management will depend on leveraging these advanced genomic and computational technologies. Emphasis should be placed on enhancing computational tools for the large-scale screening of resistance genes and utilizing gene editing technologies such as CRISPR-Cas9 for functional validation and targeted resistance enhancement and deployment. These approaches will be crucial for advancing rice blast resistance, ensuring food security, and promoting agricultural sustainability.

Pedrozo, Rodrigo

Automated Blast Cleaner

Automatic grit-blasting machine removes melted-layer residue from electrical-discharge-machined surfaces of turbine blades. Automatic control system of machine provides steady flow of grit and maintains blast nozzles at proper distance and in correct orientation perpendicular to surface being blasted, regardless of contour. Eliminates localized excessive blasting and consequent excessive removal of underlying material, blasting of adjacent surfaces, and missed areas.

Pickett, Isaiah R.

BLAST: The Balloon-Borne Large Aperture Submillimeter Telescope

BLAST is the Balloon-borne Large-Aperture Sub-millimeter Telescope. It will fly from a Long Duration Balloon (LDB) platform from Antarctica. The telescope design incorporates a 2 m primary mirror with large-format bolometer arrays operating at 250, 350 and 500 microns. By providing the first sensitive large-area (10 sq. deg.) sub-mm surveys at these wavelengths, BLAST will address some of the most important galactic and cosmological questions regarding the formation and evolution of stars, galaxies and clusters. Galactic and extragalactic BLAST surveys will: (1) identify large numbers of high-redshift galaxies; (2) measure photometric redshifts, rest-frame FIR luminosities and star formation rates thereby constraining the evolutionary history of the galaxies that produce the FIR and sub-mm background; (3) measure cold pre-stellar sources associated with the earliest stages of star and planet formation; (4) make high-resolution maps of diffuse galactic emission over a wide range of galactic latitudes. In addition to achieving the above scientific goals, the exciting legacy of the BLAST LDB experiment will be a catalogue of 3000-5000 extragalactic sub-mm sources and a 100 sq. deg. sub-mm galactic plane survey. Multi-frequency follow-up observations from SIRTF, ASTRO-F, and Herschel, together with spectroscopic observations and sub-arcsecond imaging from ALMA are essential to understand the physical nature of the BLAST sources.

Devlin, Mark

Benchmarking Cylindrical Blast Wave Theory Against the OSIRIS-REx Sample Return Capsule Reentry

Weak shock theory based on cylindrical blast waves has been used to interpret meteor infrasound, but it has not been systematically benchmarked against a non-ablating hypersonic source with independently known parameters. The objective of this study is not to propose a new theoretical framework, but to evaluate the operational validity of the existing suite of blast radius formulations against a high-fidelity ground truth dataset. The OSIRIS-REx Sample Return Capsule reentry on 24 September 2023 provides such a benchmark because the capsule geometry, trajectory, and infrasound emission points are constrained from mission data and ray tracing, reducing source-side uncertainty associated with ablation. Using observations from 39 infrasound stations, this benchmarking study evaluates six published blast radius (${R}_{0}$ ) formulations and three weak-shock transition coefficients ( C ) within a stratified atmospheric propagation model to predict signal period and peak overpressure. The benchmarking identifies the Sakurai formulation as the best-performing formulation for non-ablating bodies, with the Jones/Plooster formulation performing comparably when a physically appropriate C is adopted. Sakurai and Jones/Plooster yield linear-period median absolute percentage residuals of 9% and 11%, respectively. The period predictions show only weak sensitivity to C at these propagation distances. The Mach-diameter approximation commonly used in meteor studies overestimates ${R}_{0}$ by more than a factor of 3 in the absence of ablation. Finally, these results establish a performance baseline for applying cylindrical blast wave theory to effectively non-ablating hypersonic bodies and demonstrate that the signal period is a robust observable for constraining ${R}_{0}$.

atmospheric entry

Feasibility of an Accelerometer-Based Structural Health Monitoring System for the LANL Blast Tube

A modeling- and simulation-based study was conducted on the feasibility of implementing an accelerometer-based SHM system on the Los Alamos National Laboratory blast tube. A blast tube experiment was modeled using the Abaqus explicit finite element solver. A custom user subroutine was written to apply test-like pressure loading to the inside surface of the blast tube. The subroutine applies analytically defined pressure loads derived from tracer output taken from a Compressible Flow Computational Fluid Dynamics Solver model of the blast tube. Five unique versions of the model were created: an undamaged reference model at 65°F was used as the baseline and compared to equivalent models at 10°F and 100°F. These three models were compared to models with small damage at the reference temperature. The two types of damage considered were a radial (circumferential) crack in the main tube body and a longitudinal crack in the supports. Acceleration outputs were extracted from accelerometer bodies included in the model and were post processed using a variety of standard SHM techniques. Different potential features signaling failure were extracted and compared using statistical methods in the time and frequency domains. A method was identified that clearly shows that differences in structural response resulting from the modeled damage can be differentiated from the structural response resulting from changing environmental conditions. However, the amount of damage applied to create observable differences in the accelerometer data was so large that simpler methods of damage detection would be more cost effective in locating damage.

42 ENGINEERING

A systematic exposition of the conservation equations for blast waves.

In order to provide a rational background for the analysis of experimental observations of blast wave phenomena, the conservation equations governing their nonsteady flow field are formulated in a general manner, without the usual restrictions imposed by an equation of state, and with proper account taken, by means of source terms, of other effects which, besides the inertial terms that conventionally dominate these equations, can affect the flow. Taking advantage of the fact that a blast wave can be generally considered as a spatially one-dimensional flow field whose nonsteady behavior can be regarded, consequently, as a function of just two independent variables, two generalized blast wave coordinates are introduced, one associated with the front of the blast wave and the other with its flow field. The conservation equations are accordingly transformed into this coordinate system, acquiring thereby a comprehensive character, in that they refer then to any frame of reference, being applicable, in particular, to problems involving either space or time profiles of the gas-dynamic parameters in the Eulerian system, or time profiles in the Lagrangian system.

Oppenheim, A. K.

Relativistic blast-wave model for the rapid flux variations of AO 0235+164 and other compact radio sources

A relativistic blast-wave version of a signal-screen model is developed which can adequately explain the details of the flux-density and structural variations of compact extragalactic radio sources. The relativistic motion implied by flux variations is analyzed with respect to the synchrotron spectrum of the BL Lac object AO 0235+164 observed during outbursts, and a signal-screen model for rapidly expanding shells produced by ultrarelativistic blast waves is examined. The approximate observed structure of the blast wave at three stages in its evolution is illustrated, each stage is described, and the model is applied to the flux density outburst in AO 0235+164 observed in late 1975. The results show that a relativistic blast-wave model can in general reproduce the main features of the observed flux variations in compact sources. Some problems with the proposed model are briefly discussed.

Marscher, A. P.

Correlations in the (Sub)Mil1imeter Background from ACT x BLAST

We present measurements of the auto- and cross-frequency correlation power spectra of the cosmic (sub)millimeter background at: 250, 350, and 500 microns (1200, 860, and 600 GHz) from observations made with the Balloon-borne Large Aperture Submillimeter Telescope, BLAST; and at 1380 and 2030 microns (218 and 148 GHz) from observations made with the Atacama Cosmology Telescope, ACT. The overlapping observations cover 8.6 deg(sup 2) in an area relatively free of Galactic dust near the south ecliptic pole (SEP). The ACT bands are sensitive to radiation from the CMB, the Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (SZ) effect from galaxy clusters, and to emission by radio and dusty star-forming galaxies (DSFGs), while the dominant contribution to the BLAST bands is from DSFGs. We confirm and extend the BLAST analysis of clustering with an independent pipeline, and also detect correlations between the ACT and BLAST maps at over 25(sigma) significance, which we interpret as a detection of the DSFGs in the ACT maps. In addition to a Poisson component in the cross-frequency power spectra, we detect a clustered signal at 4(sigma), and using a model for the DSFG evolution and number counts, we successfully fit all our spectra with a linear clustering model and a bias that depends only on red shift and not on scale. Finally, the data are compared to, and generally agree with, phenomenological models for the DSFG population. This study represents a first of its kind, and demonstrates the constraining power of the cross-frequency correlation technique to constrain models for the DSFGs. Similar analyses with more data will impose tight constraints 011 future models.

Hajian, Amir

On the Interaction and Coalescence if Spherical Blast Waves

The scaling and similarity laws concerning the propagation of isolated spherical blast waves are briefly reviewed. Both point source explosions and high pressure gas explosions are considered. Test data on blast overpressure from the interaction and coalescence of spherical blast waves emanating from explosives in the form of shaped charges of different strength placed in the vicinity of a solid propellant stack are presented. These data are discussed with regard to the scaling laws concerning the decay of blast overpressure. The results point out the possibility of detecting source explosions from far-field pressure measurements.

Kandula, Max

Isothermal blast wave model of supernova remnants

The validity of the 'adiabatic' assumption in supernova-remnant calculations is examined, and the alternative extreme of an isothermal blast wave is explored. It is concluded that, because of thermal conductivity, the large temperature gradients predicted by the adiabatic model probably are not maintained in nature. Self-similar solutions to the hydrodynamic equations for an isothermal blast wave have been found and studied. These solutions are then used to determine the relationship between X-ray observations and inferred parameters of supernova remnants. A comparison of the present results with those for the adiabatic model indicates differences which are less than present observational uncertainties. It is concluded that most parameters of supernova remnants inferred from X-ray measurements are relatively insensitive to the specifics of the blast-wave model.

Solinger, A.