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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-Mo3 LTAR CMRB Field 3 (CMRB BAU)

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-Mo3 LTAR CMRB Field 3 (CMRB BAU). This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-Mo3 LTAR CMRB Field 3 (CMRB BAU) produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - Site is in a 20 ha agricultural field near Centralia, MO on a broad, slightly sloped landscape. Currently managed in a corn-soybean rotation for commercial crop production

Schreiner-McGraw, Adam↗
DOE OSTI2020

Materials Data on BaU(SiO4)2 by Materials Project

BaU(SiO4)2 crystallizes in the orthorhombic Cmcm space group. The structure is three-dimensional. Ba2+ is bonded in a 10-coordinate geometry to ten O2- atoms. There are a spread of Ba–O bond distances ranging from 2.98–3.24 Å. U6+ is bonded to six O2- atoms to form distorted UO6 octahedra that share corners with four equivalent SiO4 tetrahedra. There are a spread of U–O bond distances ranging from 1.83–2.27 Å. Si4+ is bonded to four O2- atoms to form SiO4 tetrahedra that share corners with two equivalent UO6 octahedra and corners with two equivalent SiO4 tetrahedra. The corner-sharing octahedral tilt angles are 41°. There are a spread of Si–O bond distances ranging from 1.62–1.64 Å. There are five inequivalent O2- sites. In the first O2- site, O2- is bonded in a 1-coordinate geometry to two equivalent Ba2+, one U6+, and one Si4+ atom. In the second O2- site, O2- is bonded in a single-bond geometry to one U6+ atom. In the third O2- site, O2- is bonded in a single-bond geometry to two equivalent Ba2+ and one U6+ atom. In the fourth O2- site, O2- is bonded in a linear geometry to two equivalent Si4+ atoms. In the fifth O2- site, O2- is bonded in a linear geometry to two equivalent Si4+ atoms.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Materials Data on BaU(SeO4)2 by Materials Project

BaU(SeO4)2 crystallizes in the monoclinic P2_1/c space group. The structure is three-dimensional. Ba2+ is bonded in a 8-coordinate geometry to eight O2- atoms. There are a spread of Ba–O bond distances ranging from 2.69–2.94 Å. U6+ is bonded in a 6-coordinate geometry to six O2- atoms. There are a spread of U–O bond distances ranging from 1.90–2.36 Å. There are two inequivalent Se4+ sites. In the first Se4+ site, Se4+ is bonded in a trigonal non-coplanar geometry to three O2- atoms. There are a spread of Se–O bond distances ranging from 1.69–1.79 Å. In the second Se4+ site, Se4+ is bonded in a water-like geometry to two O2- atoms. Both Se–O bond lengths are 1.76 Å. There are eight inequivalent O2- sites. In the first O2- site, O2- is bonded in a 3-coordinate geometry to one Ba2+, one U6+, and one Se4+ atom. In the second O2- site, O2- is bonded in a bent 120 degrees geometry to one U6+ and one Se4+ atom. In the third O2- site, O2- is bonded in a 3-coordinate geometry to two equivalent Ba2+ and one O2- atom. The O–O bond length is 1.36 Å. In the fourth O2- site, O2- is bonded in a 1-coordinate geometry to one Ba2+ and one Se4+ atom. In the fifth O2- site, O2- is bonded in a distorted trigonal planar geometry to one Ba2+, one U6+, and one Se4+ atom. In the sixth O2- site, O2- is bonded in a 3-coordinate geometry to one Ba2+, one U6+, and one Se4+ atom. In the seventh O2- site, O2- is bonded in a distorted single-bond geometry to one Ba2+ and one U6+ atom. In the eighth O2- site, O2- is bonded in a distorted single-bond geometry to one Ba2+ and one U6+ atom.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Materials Data on BaU(PS4)2 by Materials Project

BaU(PS4)2 is Zircon-derived structured and crystallizes in the tetragonal P4_2/mbc space group. The structure is three-dimensional. Ba2+ is bonded to eight S2- atoms to form distorted BaS8 hexagonal bipyramids that share edges with two equivalent BaS8 hexagonal bipyramids and edges with four equivalent PS4 tetrahedra. There are four shorter (3.23 Å) and four longer (3.37 Å) Ba–S bond lengths. U4+ is bonded in a 8-coordinate geometry to eight S2- atoms. There are four shorter (2.76 Å) and four longer (2.99 Å) U–S bond lengths. P5+ is bonded to four S2- atoms to form PS4 tetrahedra that share edges with two equivalent BaS8 hexagonal bipyramids. There are one shorter (2.01 Å) and three longer (2.07 Å) P–S bond lengths. There are three inequivalent S2- sites. In the first S2- site, S2- is bonded in a 1-coordinate geometry to two equivalent U4+ and one P5+ atom. In the second S2- site, S2- is bonded in a 1-coordinate geometry to two equivalent Ba2+ and one P5+ atom. In the third S2- site, S2- is bonded in a 3-coordinate geometry to one Ba2+, one U4+, and one P5+ atom.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Materials Data on BAu by Materials Project

BAu is Wurtzite structured and crystallizes in the hexagonal P6_3mc space group. The structure is three-dimensional. Au3+ is bonded to four equivalent B3- atoms to form corner-sharing AuB4 tetrahedra. There are three shorter (2.17 Å) and one longer (2.19 Å) Au–B bond lengths. B3- is bonded to four equivalent Au3+ atoms to form corner-sharing BAu4 tetrahedra.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Materials Data on BaU(SeO4)2 by Materials Project

BaU(SeO4)2 crystallizes in the monoclinic P2_1/c space group. The structure is three-dimensional. Ba2+ is bonded in a 8-coordinate geometry to eight O2- atoms. There are a spread of Ba–O bond distances ranging from 2.65–3.02 Å. U6+ is bonded in a 2-coordinate geometry to seven O2- atoms. There are a spread of U–O bond distances ranging from 1.91–2.70 Å. There are two inequivalent Se4+ sites. In the first Se4+ site, Se4+ is bonded in a distorted water-like geometry to two O2- atoms. There is one shorter (1.75 Å) and one longer (1.78 Å) Se–O bond length. In the second Se4+ site, Se4+ is bonded in a distorted trigonal non-coplanar geometry to three O2- atoms. There are a spread of Se–O bond distances ranging from 1.73–1.77 Å. There are eight inequivalent O2- sites. In the first O2- site, O2- is bonded in a distorted single-bond geometry to one Ba2+, one U6+, and one Se4+ atom. In the second O2- site, O2- is bonded in a distorted bent 120 degrees geometry to one Ba2+ and one U6+ atom. In the third O2- site, O2- is bonded in a 3-coordinate geometry to one Ba2+, one U6+, and one Se4+ atom. In the fourth O2- site, O2- is bonded in a 3-coordinate geometry to one Ba2+, one U6+, and one Se4+ atom. In the fifth O2- site, O2- is bonded in a water-like geometry to one U6+ and one Se4+ atom. In the sixth O2- site, O2- is bonded in a 3-coordinate geometry to two equivalent Ba2+ and one O2- atom. The O–O bond length is 1.36 Å. In the seventh O2- site, O2- is bonded in a 2-coordinate geometry to one Ba2+, one U6+, and one Se4+ atom. In the eighth O2- site, O2- is bonded in a 1-coordinate geometry to one Ba2+ and one U6+ atom.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

AmeriFlux US-Mo3 LTAR CMRB Field 3 (CMRB BAU)

This is the AmeriFlux version of the carbon flux data for the site US-Mo3 LTAR CMRB Field 3 (CMRB BAU). Site Description - Site is in a 20 ha agricultural field near Centralia, MO on a broad, slightly sloped landscape. Currently managed in a corn-soybean rotation for commercial crop production

Schreiner-McGraw, Adam↗
DOE OSTI2026

Public water supply infrastructure extensification and diversification in surface waters is insufficient to meet future demands in Texas

The data were developed to evaluate the capacity of existing and potential new surface water supply infrastructure to meet projected public water demands across districts in Texas under multiple future socioeconomic and climate scenarios. The database integrates hydrologic, water quality, infrastructure, energy, cost, demographic, and demand-projection information for candidate surface water supply locations. Candidate sites include stream reaches, waterbodies, reservoir surplus locations, and potential new reservoir sites. Water availability is characterized using historical and projected flow conditions, while site suitability is evaluated using five indicators: Water Availability Index (WAI), Water Quality Index (WQI), Energy Requirement Index (ERI), Water Treatment Cost (WTC), and Water Infrastructure Cost (WIC). The datasets include statewide candidate-site information, district-level demand projections under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), runoff-based allocation constraints, climate-stress metrics, and optimization outputs evaluating alternative infrastructure planning strategies. Optimization results compare Business-as-Usual (BAU) and All Surface Water (AllSW) demand-management approaches under both scaled and fixed cost-cap strategies. Associated validation datasets provide district-level feasibility assessments, infrastructure selection outcomes, cost-cap utilization, demand satisfaction metrics, and constraint diagnostics. Additional datasets quantify projected changes in storage and flow conditions as well as water availability stress for both existing and newly selected intake locations under the SSP5 scenario for mid-century and late-century climate conditions. Together, these datasets support assessment of the extent to which surface-water infrastructure expansion and diversification strategies can satisfy future public water demands while accounting for hydrologic, economic, and planning constraints across Texas. Dataset(s) Description Dataset_preoptimization.xlsx Comprehensive pre-optimization dataset containing candidate water-supply sites and associated hydrologic, water-quality, infrastructure, climate, demographic, runoff, and demand-projection variables used as inputs to the optimization analyses. Includes variable descriptions and the full statewide candidate-site database. District_level_site_selection.zip - Compressed archive containing all SSP-specific district-level optimization result files MESIO_ssp1_results.xlsx District-level site selection results for SSP1 (MESIO). Includes variable descriptions, BAU and AllSW site-selection results under scaled and fixed cost strategies, and district-level validation diagnostics. MESID_ssp2_results.xlsx District-level site selection results for SSP2 (MESID). Includes variable descriptions, BAU and AllSW site-selection results under scaled and fixed cost strategies, and district-level validation diagnostics. LCMRD_ssp3_results.xlsx District-level site selection results for SSP3 (LCMRD). Includes variable descriptions, BAU and AllSW site-selection results under scaled and fixed cost strategies, and district-level validation diagnostics. IRDev-Low_ssp4l_results.xlsx District-level site selection results for SSP4-Low (IRDev-Low). Includes variable descriptions, BAU and AllSW site-selection results under scaled and fixed cost strategies, and district-level validation diagnostics. IRDev-High_ssp4h_results.xlsx District-level site selection results for SSP4-High (IRDev-High). Includes variable descriptions, BAU and AllSW site-selection results under scaled and fixed cost strategies, and district-level validation diagnostics. RSIM_ssp5_results.xlsx District-level site selection results for SSP5 (RSIM). Includes variable descriptions, BAU and AllSW site-selection results under scaled and fixed cost strategies, and district-level validation diagnostics. tx_hydrological_stress.xlsx Hydrological stress dataset for existing and newly selected intake locations. Includes projected mid-century and late-century changes, gain/loss classifications, planning strategy information, and accompanying variable descriptions. Also includes water-stress metrics derived from historical and projected low-flow conditions.

Okoye, Perpetua I. (ORCID:0000000215545033)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Land management effects on wet aggregate stability and carbon content

Land management affects soil structure and many other soil properties and processes. Our objectives were to evaluate soil organic C (SOC), aggregate size distribution, aggregate-associated C, and soil structure as affected by long-term land management and slope. A chronosequence of 38 on-farm sites with low to high (5–18%) slopes was selected to evaluate 5–40 yr of management. The sites were classified as business as usual (BAU) cropland (BAU-Crop), BAU pasture (BAU-Past), newly established conservation reserve program (CRP) areas (CRP-New), and established CRP (CRP-Old). Soil samples were collected from the 0-to-5- and 5-to-15-cm depth increments and processed for soil property measurements including fractionation by wet sieving into five aggregate size classes (>2,000, 1,000–2,000, 500–1,000, 250–500, and 53–250 μm). Within the surface 5 cm, mean weight diameter (MWD) and geometric mean diameter (GMD) were used to characterize soil structural stability. The BAU-Past and CRP-Old sites had 79% more macroaggregates (>2,000, 1,000–2,000, and 500–1,000 μm), 123% higher MWD, 38% higher GMD, and 47% higher SOC than BAU-Crop or CRP-New sites. The 5-to-15-cm depth increment showed a similar but lower magnitude response. Aggregate-associated C was quantified using a constant soil mass that reflected aggregate size distribution to prevent overestimating C content. Lower-slope locations had more SOC, more macroaggregates, more C associated with macroaggregates, and higher GMD and MWD compared with high-slope locations across all management classifications and soil depths. The results support our hypothesis that the high-slop soils may benefits from specific management decisions than the lower-sloping soils as a function of landscape property. We recommend reestablishing grassland on sloping land that is susceptible to excessive soil erosion, although those practices will likely take a long time to restore soil structural stability and SOC content to precultivation levels.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impact of landscape design on the greenhouse gas emissions of shrub willow bioenergy buffers in a US Midwest corn-production landscape

Previous studies have evaluated the economics and ecosystem services of perennial bioenergy crops when replacing grain crops on marginal (environmentally critical and/or underproductive) lands. This study used life-cycle analysis (LCA) to investigate the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of perennial crops when grown in targeted landscape positions and their impact in reducing nitrogen leaching. Specifically, LCA was performed to evaluate the GHG emissions of growing shrub willow on marginal lands in the Indian Creek watershed in Illinois to assess the sustainability of strategically planted willow buffer strips. Willow was grown as a short-rotation woody crop with a 21-year rotation under three scenarios including a business-as-usual (BAU) field-scale production with nitrogen fertilizer application and two unfertilized subfield buffer scenarios – landscape single subfield (LSSF) or landscape multiple subfields (LMSF) – grown alongside cornfields to reduce nitrate leaching. Each scenario also considers three field sizes, 2.0, 10.1, and 40.5 ha. The average annual GHG emissions from willow production and depot transportation were 0.32–0.77 Mg-CO 2 e ha-1 with the lowest emissions for the LSSF scenario and highest for the BAU. The GHG emissions for the LSSF and BAU scenarios are independent of field size, whereas LMSF emissions increase with increasing field size, 0.41 Mg-CO 2 e ha-1 at 2.0 ha and 0.76 Mg-CO 2 e ha-1 at 40.5 ha. Emission results were most sensitive to the willow yield, followed by fertilizer application rate (BAU only), harvest fuel consumption, and transportation distance.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating the incentive for soil organic carbon sequestration from carinata production in the Southeast United States

Soil organic carbon (SOC) can be increased by cultivating bioenergy crops to produce low-carbon fuels, improving soil quality and agricultural productivity. This study evaluates the incentives for farmers to sequester SOC by adopting a bioenergy crop, carinata. Two agricultural management scenarios – business as usual (BaU) and a climate-smart (no-till) practice – were simulated using an agent-based modeling approach to account for farmers’ carinata adoption rates within their context of traditional crop rotations, the associated profitability, influences of neighboring farmers, as well as their individual attitudes. Here, using the state of Georgia, US, as a case study, the results show that farmers allocated 1056 × 10 3 acres (23.8%; 2.47 acres is equivalent to 1 ha) of farmlands by 2050 at a contract price of $\$6.5$ per bushel of carinata seeds and with an incentive of $50Mg -1 CO2e SOC sequestered under the BaU scenario. In contrast, at the same contract price and SOC incentive rate, farmers allocated 1152 × 10 3 acres (25.9%) of land under the no-till scenario, while the SOC sequestration was 483.83 × 10 3 Mg CO2e, which is nearly four times the amount under the BaU scenario. Thus, this study demonstrated combinations of seed prices and SOC incentives that encourage farmers to adopt carinata with climate-smart practices to attain higher SOC sequestration benefits.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Analytic techniques for solving the transport equations in electroweak baryogenesis

We develop an efficient method for solving transport equations, particularly in the context of electroweak baryogenesis. It provides fully-analytical results under mild approximations and can also test semi-analytical results, which are applicable in more general cases. Key elements of our method include the reduction of the second-order differential equations to first order, representing the set of coupled equations as a block matrix of the particle densities and their derivatives, identification of zero modes, and block decomposition of the matrix. We apply our method to calculate the baryon asymmetry of the Universe (BAU) in a Standard Model effective field theory framework of complex Yukawa couplings to determine the sensitivity of the resulting BAU to modifications of various model parameters and rates, and to estimate the effect of the commonly-used thin-wall approximation.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Effects of Low-Carbon Energy Adoption on Airborne Particulate Matter Concentrations With Feedbacks to Future Climate Over California

California plans to reduce emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases (GHGs) through adoption of new energy systems that will also lower concentrations of short-lived absorbing soot contained in airborne particulate matter (PM). Here we examine the direct and indirect effects of reduced PM concentrations under a low-carbon energy (GHG-Step) scenario on radiative forcing in California. Simulations were carried out using the source-oriented WRF/Chem (SOWC) model with 12 km spatial resolution for the year 2054. Furthermore, the avoided aerosol emissions due to technology advances in the GHG-Step scenario reduce ground level PM concentrations by ~8.85% over land compared to the Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario, but changes to meteorological parameters are more modest. Top-of-atmospheric forcing predicted by the SOWC model increased by 0.15 W m -2 , surface temperature warmed by 0.001 K, and planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) increased by 2.20 cm in the GHG-Step scenario compared to the BAU scenario. PM climate feedbacks are small because the significant changes in ground level PM concentrations associated with the GHG-Step scenario are limited to the first few hundred meters of the atmosphere, with little change for the majority of the vertical column above that level. As an order-of-magnitude comparison, the long-term effects of global reductions in GHG emissions (RCP8.5–RCP4.5) lowered average surface temperature over the California study domain by approximately 0.76 K. The effects of long-lived climate pollutants such as CO 2 are much stronger than the effects of short-lived climate pollutants such as PM soot over California in the year 2054.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Nuclear Thermal Energy Storage Configurations for Industrial Combined Heat and Power Supply: Conceptual Study and Engineering Designs

The industries examined in this report primarily rely on moderate-temperature heat provided by gas- or coal-fired boilers and combined heat and power (CHP) plants, delivered through standard process steam systems. High-temperature energy demands are often industry-specific and typically exceed the capabilities of high-temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTGRs). While it is technically feasible to replace process steam from fossil-based heat sources with nuclear energy, certain industries, such as methanol production and pulp and paper, face technoeconomic challenges in integrating nuclear energy without major changes or a technological shift. This is mainly due to the limited external energy demand remaining after the use of internal byproducts, waste heat recovery, and simple efficiency improvements. Achieving full decarbonization of these processes with nuclear energy would require significant technological advancements, involving experimental technology and substantial investments, making widespread adoption in existing industrial plants unlikely in the near term. This study reviews TES options in the context of enabling a flexible CHP supply while maintaining a steady nuclear heat input. Heat storage systems that interface between the reactor primary fluid and the CHP system offer superior performance and flexibility. Specifically, steam extraction downstream of the reheater with a two-tank molten-salt TES appears as the best solution regarding thermodynamic system benefits and system drawbacks. Using selected system configurations, a conceptual design of an industrial energy park was developed for industries with varying energy demands, such as steel production plants utilizing electric arc furnaces (EAFs) and chemical plants, as well as for those with constant energy demands, like petroleum refineries. This design highlights the capabilities of TES and explores its potential business cases. The study also conceptually develops the potential for integrating additional energy sources with nuclear systems through the implementation of TES. The potential of the HTGR-TES-CHP system was also evaluated considering key uncertainties such as industrial demand profiles, external grid access availability, and eligible tax credit levels, using the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network. Sensitivity of net present value to these uncertainties was analyzed to determine the optimal number of nuclear reactors (and CHP systems) and the suitable TES capacity. The results were interpreted from a decision-maker’s perspective, focusing on three key areas: deployment strategy (oversized units vs. undersized units with TES support), industrial process characteristics (thermal-intensive single profiles vs. electricity-intensive combined profiles), and operational goals (maximizing profits vs. minimizing natural gas (NG) consumption or external grid dependence). The optimization results indicate that the HTGR-TES-CHP system significantly reduces reliance on NG boilers for individual industrial processes by 9-60% (in NG capacity factor), with an average reduction of 38%, compared to standalone NG boiler operation case (Business As Usual [BAU]). For combined industrial processes, the reduction ranges from 37-77%, with an average of 60%. Additionally, the system greatly reduces dependence on external grids. In meeting industrial electrical demands, a 33-100% self-sufficient internal electricity supply is achieved for single industrial process, with an average of 74%, compared to the BAU scenario, where 100% of electricity is imported. For combined processes, 35-100% of internal electricity demands are met by the reactor, with an average of 73%. At last, the relative NG price levels at which the proposed HTGR-TES-CHP system can cost-effectively enter the market currently dominated by existing NG boilers were estimated. For a moderate HTGR CAPEX level ($\$$2500/kWth, $\$$6329/kWe), the analysis suggests that NG prices must be 2.5 to 7 times higher than HTGR variable operating and maintenance costs for single industrial process, and 5.5 to 9.5 times higher for a combined process scenario. Tax credit modeling shows that the Investment Tax Credit significantly reduces the price threshold needed to break even, making the system competitive with NG boilers in certain cases.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

​​Updates to Anaerobic Digestion Pathways for Animal Manure in R&D GREET 2025​

Livestock and poultry manure management in the U.S. is a greenhouse gas (GHG) intensive process, emitting 81.7 MMT CO 2 e in 2022 (1.5% of net U.S. GHG emissions). The primary GHG is methane (CH 4 ), with 2,312 kt released in 2022 (9% of U.S. CH 4 emissions). Manure management methods are commonly categorized by whether they are anaerobic (“wet”) or aerobic (“dry”) techniques. Although dry methods manage the largest share of manure, the majority of GHG emissions are generated during storage of manure in anaerobic conditions – typically in water-filled tanks, pits, or lagoons. There has been a 65% increase in emissions from 1990, primarily due to an increasing cattle population. Also, this rise in population has been coupled with a rise in animal confinement and density, which typically adopt wet manure management methods. Within wet methods, anaerobic bacteria proliferate and decompose volatile solids (VS) within the manure in a process called anaerobic digestion to produce roughly equal mixtures of CH 4 and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). These GHGs are fugitive, in that they are assumed to be released to the atmosphere and contribute to GHGs within U.S. GHG inventories. If the methane is captured and purified (i.e., “upgraded”) this simultaneously mitigates GHGs that would have otherwise been released and produces a valuable energy product known colloquially as Renewable Natural Gas (RNG). Such processes are acknowledged by U.S. policy through programs such as the U.S. Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS), the federal Clean Fuel Production Credit (45Z), and state clean fuel standards (CFS). In the 45Z and CFS schemes, the GHG emissions of the business-as-usual (BAU) manure management system is taken as a baseline, and credits are received based on GHG reductions relative to this baseline. Thus, estimating the GHG emissions of the BAU scenario (also known as the “counterfactual”) is necessary.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dynamic projection of anthropogenic emissions in China: methodology and 2015–2050 emission pathways under a range of socio-economic, climate policy, and pollution control scenarios

Abstract. Future trends in air pollution and greenhouse gas (GHG)emissions for China are of great concern to the community. A set of globalscenarios regarding future socio-economic and climate developments, combiningshared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) with climate forcing outcomes asdescribed by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), was createdby the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Chinese researchers have also developed various emission scenarios by considering detailed local environmental and climate policies. However, a comprehensive scenario set connecting SSP–RCP scenarios with local policies and representing dynamic emission changes under local policies is still missing. In this work, to fill this gap, we developed a dynamic projection model, the Dynamic Projection model for Emissions in China (DPEC), to explore China'sfuture anthropogenic emission pathways. The DPEC is designed tointegrate the energy system model, emission inventory model, dynamicprojection model, and parameterized scheme of Chinese policies. The modelcontains two main modules, an energy-model-driven activity rate projectionmodule and a sector-based emission projection module. The activity rateprojection module provides the standardized and unified future energyscenarios after reorganizing and refining the outputs from the energy systemmodel. Here we use a new China-focused version of the Global ChangeAssessment Model (GCAM-China) to project future energy demand and supply inChina under different SSP–RCP scenarios at the provincial level. Theemission projection module links a bottom-up emission inventory model, theMulti-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC), to GCAM-China andaccurately tracks the evolution of future combustion and production technologiesand control measures under different environmental policies. We developedtechnology-based turnover models for several key emitting sectors (e.g.coal-fired power plants, key industries, and on-road transportationsectors), which can simulate the dynamic changes in the unit/vehicle fleetturnover process by tracking the lifespan of each unit/vehicle on an annualbasis. With the integrated modelling framework, we connected five SSP scenarios(SSP1–5), five RCP scenarios (RCP8.5, 7.0, 6.0, 4.5, and 2.6), and threepollution control scenarios (business as usual, BAU; enhanced controlpolicy, ECP; and best health effect, BHE) to produce six combined emissionscenarios. With those scenarios, we presented a wide range of China's futureemissions to 2050 under different development and policy pathways. We foundthat, with a combination of strong low-carbon policy and air pollutioncontrol policy (i.e. SSP1-26-BHE scenario), emissions of major airpollutants (i.e. SO 2 , NO x , PM 2.5 , and non-methane volatile organic compounds – NMVOCs) in China willbe reduced by 34%–66% in 2030 and 58%–87% in 2050 compared to 2015. End-of-pipe control measures are more effective for reducing air pollutant emissions before 2030, while low-carbon policy will play a more important rolein continuous emission reduction until 2050. In contrast, China's emissionswill remain at a high level until 2050 under a reference scenario without activeactions (i.e. SSP3-70-BAU). Compared to similar scenarios set from theCMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6), our estimates ofemission ranges are much lower than the estimates from the harmonized CMIP6 emissions dataset in2020–2030, but their emission ranges become similar in the year 2050.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multi-level impacts of climate change and supply disruption events on a potato supply chain: An agent-based modeling approach

Context: The world is experiencing frequent extreme weather events like droughts, snowstorms, and shifting of seasons due to climate change. Increased frequency and severity of these extreme weather events threaten food security because agriculture depends on climate conditions. Impacts of climate change on the agricultural system not only occur at the grower’s level, but also cascade to other levels along the supply chain. Objective: In this study, we aim to quantify a wide range of economic impacts of different extreme climate events on different stages of a food supply chain. Methods: We chose the potato supply chain in Idaho as a case study. We developed a multi-echelon supply chain simulation model using an agent-based modeling (ABM) approach with five types of agents—farmers, shippers, processors, retailers, and logistics companies. In addition to the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, we designed two climate-related disruption events—drought and snowstorm. We quantified the heterogeneous impacts at different stages of the supply chain for both fresh and processed potatoes using key performance indicators (KPIs) including revenues, prices, lead times, traded quantities, and food waste quantity. Results and Conclusion: The impacts of the disruption events are different on different agents in the supply chain for different product categories. The price hike of fresh potatoes is far higher than processed potatoes during disruption events. This price hike makes consumers switch to processed potatoes, which require more fresh potatoes as an input that further reinforces the price hike. However, because processed potatoes have an elastic demand, once their prices go up due to higher input cost, their demand drops. Non-contracted farmers gain additional revenues from the disruption events, whereas contracted farmers incur a loss due to lock-in price and lower than usual harvest. Significance: The methodology developed in this study could be applied to other food and agricultural supply chains for understanding the vulnerabilities at agent levels due to climate change disruption events. Furthermore, the findings would help develop mitigation strategies or policies to improve the well-being of the overall supply chain.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Techno-economic Analysis and Life-Cycle Analysis of Renewable Diesel Fuels Produced with Waste Feedstocks

Wet waste feedstocks represent an important category of resources that could be utilized to produce biofuels. Diversion of the wet waste resources from going through conventional waste management practices to utilization as feedstocks for energy production also benefits from avoided cost and pollutant emissions of waste management and disposal. This study investigates the economic and environmental implications of producing bio-blendstocks for mixing controlled compression ignition (MCCI) engines from two waste-to-fuel pathways: hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA) from yellow grease, and swine manure hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) followed by biocrude upgrading. Detailed process models were developed for both pathways, which informed the techno-economic analysis (TEA) and life-cycle analysis (LCA). Conventional swine manure management practice was also modeled in detail as the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario for the swine manure HTL pathway. The estimated minimum fuel selling prices (MFSP) were $4.47/gasoline gallon equivalent (GGE) and $3.57/GGE for the yellow grease to HEFA and swine manure HTL pathways, respectively. The life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the two pathways were 11.2 and -33.3 g CO2e/MJ, respectively, for the yellow grease to HEFA and swine manure HTL pathways. The credits of avoided emissions from conventional swine manure management were the main reason for the negative GHG emissions of the swine manure HTL pathway. The marginal GHG emissions abatement costs were estimated to be $100 – $253/tonne CO2e and $5 – $103/tonne CO2e for the yellow grease HEFA and swine manure HTL pathways, respectively, for a diesel price ranging between $2.0/GGE and $3.5/GGE. Since the yellow grease HEFA pathway is already commercialized, it can benefit from the $200/tonne carbon credit in the California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) market, which could help the yellow grease HEFA pathway to achieve near-zero marginal GHG emissions abatement cost.

renewable diesel, techno economic analysis, life c↗