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Asteroid Threat Assessment for Planetary Defense [Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (TAP) at NASA Ames Research Center]. Objectives: Develop models and data to characterize the potential damage and risks due to asteroid strikes on Earth. Provide results that can help guide decisions and planning: Asteroid surveys; Mitigation systems; Disaster response.
Accurately assessing asteroid threats relies on knowledge of the asteroid’s pre-entry properties such as size, velocity, and mass. Directly measuring these properties can be infeasible due to the sparsity of events and the accuracy and fidelity of various sensors. Current analysis of an asteroid’s pre-entry properties involves modeling the asteroid’s entry into the Earth’s atmosphere. This process can be time consuming and can require manual adjustment of uncertain modeling specific parameters. NASA Ames has developed a genetic algorithm that can help automate asteroid modeling using the Fragment-Cloud Model (FCM). The algorithm generates realistic energy deposition curves based on actual energy deposition curves from real, observed asteroids. By using these synthetic, labeled energy deposition curves, we developed a one-dimensional convolutional neural network that can predict an asteroid’s pre-entry parameters.
Although most asteroids and other near-Earth objects (NEOs) do not pose a threat to Earth’s inhabitants, impacts from objects that are just tens of meters in diameter can cause significant damage if they occur over a populated area. This paper forms the foundation of an effort at NASA Ames Research Center to quantify these risks and identify the greatest risk-driving parameters and uncertainties. An integrated risk model that couples dynamic probabilistic simulations of strike occurrences with physics-based models of NEO impact damage factors has been developed to generate casualty estimates for a range of NEO impact properties. Currently, the model focuses on the risk due to blast overpressure damage from airbursts and impacts on land. The model is first used to reproduce results from established sources, and then is extended to perform sensitivity studies that yield greater insights into risk driving parameters. Results show that meteor strength and entry angle play a role for small to mid-size NEOs, and that accounting for the specific target location significantly affects casualty estimates and dominates the risk. Future work will continue to refine and expand the models to better characterize key impact risk factors, include additional types of threats such as tsunamis and climate effects, and ultimately support assessments of potential asteroid mitigation strategies.
Information about the physical characteristics of Near Earth Asteroids (NEAs) is needed to model behavior during atmospheric entry, to assess the risk of an impact, and to model possible mitigation techniques. The intrinsic properties of interest to entry and mitigation modelers, however, rarely are directly measureable. Instead we measure other properties and infer the intrinsic physical properties, so determining the complete set of characteristics of interest is far from straightforward. In addition, for the majority of NEAs, only the basic measurements exist so often properties must be inferred from statistics of the population of more completely characterized objects. We will provide an assessment of the current state of knowledge about the physical characteristics of importance to asteroid threat assessment. In addition, an ongoing effort to collate NEA characteristics into a readily accessible database for use by the planetary defense community will be discussed.
As described at IPPW 12 [1], NASA initiated a new research activity focused on Planetary Defense (PD) on October 1, 2014. The overarching function of the Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP) is to provide capabilities to assess impact damage of any Near-Earth Object (NEO) that could inflict on the Earth. The activity includes four interrelated efforts: Initial Conditions (at the atmospheric entry interface); Entry Modeling (energy deposition in the atmosphere); Hazards (on the surface including winds, over pressures, thermal exposures, craters, tsunami and earthquakes) and Risk (physics-based). This paper outlines progress by ATAP and highlights achievements that are complimentary to activities of interest to the International Planetary Probe community. The ATAPs work is sponsored by NASAs Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO), a part of the agency's Science Mission Directorate [1] Arnold, J. O., et. al., Overview of a New NASA Activity Focused on Planetary Defense, IPPW 12 Cologne Germany, June 15-19. 2015.
This paper presents a detailed mission design analysis results for the 2017 Planetary Defense Conference (PDC) Hypothetical Asteroid Impact Scenario, documented at https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/ pd/cs/pdc17/. The mission design includes campaigns for both reconnaissance (flyby or rendezvous) of the asteroid (to characterize it and the nature of the threat it poses to Earth) and mitigation of the asteroid, via kinetic impactor deflection, nuclear explosive device (NED) deflection, or NED disruption. Relevant scenario parameters are varied to assess the sensitivity of the design outcome, such as asteroid bulk density, asteroid diameter, momentum enhancement factor, spacecraft launch vehicle, and mitigation system type. Different trajectory types are evaluated in the mission design process from purely ballistic to those involving optimal midcourse maneuvers, planetary gravity assists, and/or lowthrust solar electric propulsion. The trajectory optimization is targeted around peak deflection points that were found through a novel linear numerical technique method. The optimization process includes constrain parameters, such as Earth departure date, launch declination, spacecraft/asteroid relative velocity and solar phase angle, spacecraft dry mass, minimum/maximum spacecraft distances from Sun and Earth, and Earth/spacecraft communications line of sight. Results show that one of the best options for the 2017 PDC deflection is solar electric propelled rendezvous mission with a single spacecraft using NED for the deflection
This paper presents a detailed mission design analysis results for the 2017 Planetary Defense Conference (PDC) Hypothetical Asteroid Impact Scenario, documented at https:cneos.jpl.nasa.govpdcspdc17. The mission design includes campaigns for both reconnaissance (flyby or rendezvous) of the asteroid (to characterize it and the nature of the threat it poses to Earth) and mitigation of the asteroid, via kinetic impactor deflection, nuclear explosive device (NED) deflection, or NED disruption. Relevant scenario parameters are varied to assess the sensitivity of the design outcome, such as asteroid bulk density, asteroid diameter, momentum enhancement factor, spacecraft launch vehicle, and mitigation system type. Different trajectory types are evaluated in the mission design process from purely ballistic to those involving optimal midcourse maneuvers, planetary gravity assists, and/or low-thrust solar electric propulsion. The trajectory optimization is targeted around peak deflection points that were found through a novel linear numerical technique method. The optimization process includes constrain parameters, such as Earth departure date, launch declination, spacecraft, asteroid relative velocity and solar phase angle, spacecraft dry mass, minimum/maximum spacecraft distances from Sun and Earth, and Earth-spacecraft communications line of sight. Results show that one of the best options for the 2017 PDC deflection is solar electric propelled rendezvous mission with a single spacecraft using NED for the deflection.
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Asteroid impacts can cause a wide range of damage through multiple potential hazards, from localized blast waves or thermal radiation, to tsunami inundation, to global climatic effects. The level of risk posed by these hazards depends not only upon their extent and severity, but also upon the likelihood of the various damage ranges. Some consequences may be more moderate but very likely, while others may be unlikely but catastrophic. Evaluating the risk from these hazards involves substantial uncertainties across all aspects of the problem, including the properties of the asteroid itself, the specifics of its entry, and the complex high-energy damage physics involved. NASA’s Asteroid Threat Assessment Project performs Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk (PAIR) assessments that use fast-running entry and hazard models to evaluate millions of impact cases representing the distributions of these many uncertain parameters. This paper presents current probabilistic asteroid impact risk assessment modeling tools and approaches used for evaluating specific asteroid impact threat cases. We give an overview of the current PAIR model used to support impact threat scenarios and discuss some of the key applications of these assessment in supporting response decisions and planetary defense preparedness. We then present the results and key findings from the recent 2023 PDC hypothetical impact exercise as an example of the primary types of risk results and metrics being developed to inform and support those mitigation and response decisions.
The 2025 Planetary Defense Conference (PDC) hypothetical asteroid impact threat exercise is being conducted in coordination with the United Nations-endorsed Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG), exercising SMPAG's processes for assessing space mission options and communicating to decision makers. Here, in this paper, we describe the work performed by our NASA-led team and present the results we contributed to the SMPAG effort for the exercise. Our NASA-led team assessed mission options for asteroid reconnaissance (flyby and rendezvous), deflection, and robust disruption using several viable techniques: kinetic impactors, ion beam deflection, and nuclear explosive devices. Our simulations and analyses considered how much change-in-velocity an asteroid can tolerate before fragmentation onset, and we worked towards establishing requirements for robustly disrupting an asteroid. Heuristics informed by the simulation results are incorporated into optimization of deflection and disruption mission campaign options. Finally, we make some observations about useful generalizations from these results with potential applicability to any planetary defense scenario.
To develop an innovative yet practically implementable mitigation technique for the most probable impact threat of an asteroid or comet with short warning time (i.e., when we don't have sufficient warning times for a deflection mission).
In 2010, the President announced that, in 2025, the U.S. intended to launch a human mission to an asteroid [1]. This announcement was followed by the idea of a Capability Driven Framework (CDF) [2], which is based on the idea of evolving capabilities from less demanding to more demanding missions to multiple possible destinations and with increased flexibility, cost effectiveness and sustainability. Focused missions, such as a NASA inter-Center study that examined the viability and implications of sending a crew to a Near Earth Asteroid (NEA) [3], provided a way to better understand and evaluate the utility of these CDF capabilities when applied to an actual mission. The long duration of the NEA missions were contrasted with a concept described in a study prepared for the Keck Institute of Space Studies (KISS) [4] where a robotic spacecraft would redirect an asteroid to the Earth-Moon vicinity, where a relatively short duration crewed mission could be conducted to the captured asteroid. This mission concept was included in the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) fiscal year 2014 budget request, as submitted by the NASA Administrator [5]. NASA studies continued to examine the idea of a crewed mission to a captured asteroid in the Earth-Moon vicinity. During this time was an announcement of NASA's Asteroid Grand Challenge [6]. Key goals for the Asteroid Grand Challenge are to locate, redirect, and explore an asteroid, as well as find and plan for asteroid threats. An Asteroid Redirect Mission (ARM) study was being conducted, which supports this Grand Challenge by providing understanding in how to execute an asteroid rendezvous, capture it, and redirect it to Earth-Moon space, and, in particular, to a distant retrograde orbit (DRO). Subsequent to the returning of the asteroid to a DRO, would be the launch of a crewed mission to rendezvous with the redirected asteroid. This report examines that crewed mission by assessing the Asteroid Redirect Crewed Mission (ARCM) nominal design and performance costs associated with an Orion based crewed rendezvous mission to a captured asteroid in an Earth-Moon DRO. The ARM study includes two fundamental mission phases: 1) The Asteroid Redirect Robotic Mission (ARRM) and 2) the ARCM. The ARRM includes a solar electric propulsion based robotic asteroid return vehicle (ARV) sent to rendezvous with a selected near Earth asteroid, capture it, and return it to a DRO in the Earth-Moon vicinity. The DRO is selected over other possible asteroid parking orbits due to its achievability (by both the robotic and crewed vehicles) and by its stability (e.g., no orbit maintenance is required). After the return of the asteroid to the Earth-Moon vicinity, the ARCM is executed and carries a crew of two astronauts to a DRO to rendezvous with the awaiting ARV with the asteroid. The outbound and inbound transfers employ lunar gravity assist (LGA) flybys to reduce the Orion propellant requirement for the overall nominal mission, which provides a nominal mission with some reserve propellant for possible abort situations. The nominal mission described in this report provides a better understanding of the mission considerations as well as the feasibility of such a crewed mission, particularly with regard to spacecraft currently undergoing development, such as the Orion vehicle and the Space Launch System (SLS).
This paper presents the results of a NASA Innovative Advanced Concept (NIAC) Phase 2 study entitled "An Innovative Solution to NASA's Near-Earth Object (NEO) Impact Threat Mitigation Grand Challenge and Flight Validation Mission Architecture Development." This NIAC Phase 2 study was conducted at the Asteroid Deflection Research Center (ADRC) of Iowa State University in 2012-2014. The study objective was to develop an innovative yet practically implementable mitigation strategy for the most probable impact threat of an asteroid or comet with short warning time (less than 5 years). The mitigation strategy described in this paper is intended to optimally reduce the severity and catastrophic damage of the NEO impact event, especially when we don't have sufficient warning times for non-disruptive deflection of a hazardous NEO. This paper provides an executive summary of the NIAC Phase 2 study results.
Performing impact risk assessment for the 2017 Planetary Defense Conference (PDC17) hypothetical impact exercise, to take place at the PDC17 conference, May 15-20, 2017. Impact scenarios and trajectories are developed and provided by NASA's Near Earth Objects Office at JPL (Paul Chodas). These results represent purely hypothetical impact scenarios, and do not reflect any known asteroid threat. Risk assessment was performed using the Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk (PAIR) model developed by the Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP) at NASA Ames Research Center. This presentation includes sample results that may be presented or used in discussions during the various stages of the impact exercisecenter dot Some cases represent alternate scenario options that may not be used during the actual impact exercise at the PDC17 conference. Updates to these initial assessments and/or additional scenario assessments may be performed throughout the impact exercise as different scenario options unfold.