E-Supplement to the Relocation of the Seismicity in Central Asia using the Global RSTT model
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Chiang, Andrea [Lawrence Livermore National Labora↗
SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Results for “Asia”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.
Influence of Tibetan Plateau sensible heat on pre-monsoon dust burdens over South Asia: Observational and modeling evidence
Tibetan Plateau sensible heating (TPSH) effect is recognized as a key driver of the South Asian climate; however its role in regulating the regional dust burdens over South Asia during the pre-monsoon season remains unclear. Using long-term reanalysis and/or observational dust and TPSH data, we show that the dust optical depth at 550 nm (DOD 550 ) over South Asia is significantly positively correlated with TPSH at the interannual scale. DOD 550 over South Asia increases (decreases) by 20 % (12 %) in the strongest (weakest) TPSH years. The phenomenon of TPSH-dust relationships is reinforced by sensitivity experiments by altering TPSH from global climate models. Further mechanism analysis reveals that TPSH perturbation induces regional circulation anomalies over South Asia, which features a low-tropospheric cyclonic response around the Tibetan Plateau. This cyclonic anomaly strengthens the prevailing northwesterly winds, increasing regional dust emissions and transportation over South Asia. This novel mechanism helps understand the South Asian dust change.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Synthesizing land use and demographic change in Southeast Asia’s smaller urbanized areas from 2000–2015
The majority of the human population now reside in urban areas today. The United Nations estimates that nearly half of all urban dwellers currently live in cities smaller than 500 000 persons and the majority of future urban growth will take place in Asia and Africa, likely in these smaller urban areas, not mega cities. Thus, understanding the factors that influence urban demographic trajectories in small urban areas is critical to address sustainable and equitable policy initiatives related to food security, changing climate hazard exposure, and economic opportunities. Here we focus on Southeast Asia—a region historically characterized by lower urban population proportions, yet with a rapidly shifting dynamic demographic—to examine correlates of demographic change among smaller cities. We combine two open-source satellite-informed datasets: GHS urban center database (2015) and age-sex gridded data from WorldPop to calculate socio-demographic characteristics to model drivers of change in annualized urban population growth from 2000–2015 for 505 urbanized places. We find a general pattern of decreasing dependency ratios as city-size increases for most urban areas in Southeast Asia. Higher rates of growth and more variation is observed for smaller cities—those with fewer than 300 000 persons, the lowest population limit for UN data on urbanization. When examining covariates of urban population growth, we find significant statistical associations of population change in smaller urbanized areas with climatic, economic, and land cover/land use variables, but with country-specific variations. Characterizing a continuum of urban population development in the context of changing environmental, economic and climate conditions has been an important sustainable development and equity issue for decades, but newer analysis of city-level drivers allows for systematic inquiry thus moving beyond total population counts for policy-relevant insight.
Southeast Asia synthesis↗
Anthropogenic sulfate-climate interactions suppress dust activity over East Asia
Observational evidences indicate a significant decline in dust storm frequencies over the East Asian arid-semiarid region during recent decades, which creates a strong contrast with a great increase in sulfate emissions over monsoonal Asia. However, the causes for decline of dust activities are still controversial. Through conducting a set of idealized sensitivity experiments of regional aerosol perturbations, here we show that anthropogenic sulfate aerosols over monsoonal Asia remarkably suppress the regional dust activities over East Asia. Southward shift of Asian westerly jet stream induced by sulfate aerosols results in increasing precipitation and weakening surface wind speeds over the arid-semiarid region, thereby suppressing local dust emission fluxes. Further, the latest Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project simulations indicate that anthropogenic aerosols partly drive the recent weakening in regional dust activities and that future change of regional dust activities will likely depend on emissions scenarios of Asian anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Distinct drivers of recent seasonal precipitation increase over Central Asia: roles of anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases
Observational evidence reveals a pronounced wetting trend over Central Asia in recent decades, with the most substantial increases occurring during winter and summer. Yet the extent to which the drivers of these changes differ seasonally remains unknown. Here, we use single-forcing experiments from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP) to examine the effects of various external forcings on winter and summer precipitation across Central Asia and to explore the physical mechanisms underlying seasonal precipitation changes. We find that greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing mainly increases winter precipitation by enhancing atmospheric moisture content through warming. In contrast, in summer, Asian sulfate aerosols enhance precipitation by modulating the westerly jet, which strengthens atmospheric moisture transport into the region. Asian black carbon exerts an opposing influence that partially offsets the sulfate-induced effect. Further attribution analysis based on CMIP6 simulations reinforces these sensitivity results and shows that GHG forcing is the primary driver of winter precipitation increases whereas anthropogenic aerosols dominate summer trends. Future CMIP6 projections suggest that under moderate- to high-emission scenarios, winter precipitation will continue to rise due to increasing GHG concentrations, while summer precipitation may decline across much of Central Asia as a result of reduced aerosol emissions following Asian clean air policies. These findings highlight a distinct seasonality in the drivers of recent precipitation increase and suggest a plausible divergence in future winter and summer precipitation trends.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Assessment of Regional Interconnections to Meet Southeast Asia's Renewable Energy Targets: Phase I of the Singapore – U.S. Collaboration
This report summarizes the results of a study of long-distance subsea electrical interconnections in Southeast Asia, conducted under the first phase of the Singapore-U.S. collaboration under the Net Zero World Initiative. In Phase 1, the Net Zero World team evaluated the current state of the renewable energy landscape in Southeast Asia; developed an open-source capacity expansion model using GridPath and evaluated several future scenarios including changes in interregional transmission; explored the technical feasibility of regional subsea interconnectors; and estimated socio-economic benefits of expanded regional transmission.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Impact of Orographic Drag Schemes on East Asia Rainfall
Current generation of climate models often has significant biases in mountainous regions where the gradient of elevation is steep, and the terrain is complex. Potential reasons for these biases include under‐representation of orographic drag process in climate models. In this study, we assess the impact of orographic drag on East Asia rainfall by comparing the impact of a new orographic drag scheme that considers 3D orographic anisotropy (3D‐oro) with a 2‐D scheme in a general circulation model. Two sets of simulations (medium‐range and seasonal forecast) are carried out for the comparison and validation against observation. It is shown that through local/remote forcing of the drag in the mountainous regions, the 3D‐oro alleviates part of the excessive rainfall in west Tibetan Plateau and parts of insufficient rainfall in Southeast China by about 25%∼50% in the January/winter forecasts; it alleviates about 25%∼50% of the rainfall bias in part of south Tibetan Plateau and of East Asia in the July/summer forecasts. The results suggest the importance of improved orographic drag process and its impact in climate modeling for those regions that are prone to significant impact of hydroclimate events.
orographic anisotropy↗
Technical Report on Adjoint Waveform Tomography of East Asia for Improved Waveform Prediction
We present a preliminary version of the East Asia Tomography (EAT) model, an adjoint waveform tomography model of East and Southeast Asia. We used SPiRaL (Simmons et al., 2021) as our starting model and source parameters for 250 earthquakes from the Global Centroid Moment Tensor catalogue (Ekström et al., 2012). Over 198 iterations, we have iterated the EAT model down to a minimum period of 35 seconds. We plan on continuing our iteration technique down to 30 seconds period before updating our misfit function to use a normalized cross correlation-based misfit functions (e.g., Tao et al., 2018) to better constrain Earth structure. We hope to iterate the current extent of the model to 25 seconds minimum period before iterating to shorter periods for a smaller subregion of the full model.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
High-Level Assessment of Grid Infrastructure in Southeast Asia to Support Regional Interconnections
The purpose of this slide deck is to provide an overview of the benefits of interregional transmission and to assess the specific transmission landscape of Southeast Asia, with respect to potential interconnections between Singapore and neighboring countries. This analysis also explores the distribution of renewable resources and electricity demand in ASEAN (the Association of Southeast Asian Nations) as well as current and anticipated interregional transmission, in order to inform future interconnection plans.
ASEAN↗
Aeromonas in South Asia: genomic insights into an environmental pathogen and reservoir of antimicrobial resistance
Aeromonads are an ecologically versatile group of bacteria that cause infections in aquatic animals and are recognised as emerging human pathogens. Despite this, our understanding of Aeromonas diversity, especially the relationship between clinical and environmental strains, remains limited. Here, we present a genomic analysis of the Aeromonas genus, comprising 1853 genomes, and a detailed comparison of clinical and environmental strains from South Asia, including 996 newly sequenced genomes from Bangladesh and India. Phylogenetic analyses revealed that Aeromonas is a highly diverse genus, with no distinct clade separating clinical and environmental isolates. We identified 28 Aeromonas species and 905 novel sequence types, comprising 72.5% of the genomes. Notably, we show a high incidence of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) genes across all isolates, including against front and last-line antibiotics. Finally, we highlight frequent misidentification of Aeromonas as Vibrio cholerae, which is relevant to cholera-endemic regions where both genera co-exist and are associated with diarrhoeal disease. Our study underscores Aeromonas as an important environmental AMR reservoir and emerging multi-species pathogen capable of spilling over into human populations.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Linking the subseasonal variability of the East Asia winter monsoon and the Madden-Julian Oscillation through wave disturbances along the subtropical jet
Despite an urgent demand for reliable subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictions to guide disaster preparedness, our current climate models show limited S2S prediction skill, particularly for precipitation, due to an inadequate understanding of the key processes that drive regional S2S variability. Here we demonstrate that the leading subseasonal variability mode of precipitation over the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) region is not only closely tied to the activity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), but also linked to precipitation and temperature extremes worldwide, influenced by a circumglobal Rossby wave-train along the subtropical westerly jet. Despite a close phase-lock relationship between the MJO and subseasonal EAWM precipitation, our findings indicate that the MJO itself may only play a minor role in the subseasonal EAWM variability. Given its significant impact on the S2S variability of global weather extremes, we call for coordinated community efforts to enhance the understanding and prediction of the circumglobal Rossby wave-train.
Atmospheric science↗
Performance evaluation of CMIP6 models on the Arctic-Siberian Plain teleconnection affecting the East Asian heat waves
The frequency and intensity of summer heat waves in East Asia have increased sharply in recent decades, significantly impacting public health and the economy. The Arctic-Siberian Plain (ASP) teleconnection pattern has been identified as a key driver, with ASP warming amplifying atmospheric circulation patterns conducive to extreme temperatures. This study evaluates the ability of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 6 models to simulate the ASP pattern across interannual variability (IAV) and intra-seasonal variability (ISV) timescales using the Common Basis Function method. The multi-model mean shows statistically significant pattern correlations with ERA5 reanalysis, with correlation coefficients of 0.90 and 0.99 for IAV and ISV, respectively. While the ASP pattern is generally well captured, models exhibit substantial inter-model diversity in the intensity and position of anticyclonic anomalies over the ASP and East Asia. Models with ASP pattern variability similar to reanalysis better reproduce extreme East Asian temperatures, whereas those over- or underestimating ASP variability exhibit lower skill. These performance differences are related to differences in simulating key variables associated with the development of the ASP pattern. Our findings highlight the role of the ASP pattern in modulating extreme heat events, as models with improved ASP simulations align more closely with observed temperature extremes. Refining ASP representations in models could enhance seasonal heat wave predictions, improving climate adaptation strategies.
Arctic-Siberian Plain (ASP)↗
Probing Cretaceous-Paleogene crustal thickness in southern Tibet using quartz-zircon chronobarometry
Knowledge of the crustal thickness history of southern Tibet during the India-Asia collision is key to understanding what deformation mechanisms accommodated northward propagating crustal shortening. Thermoisotopic models suggest that a relatively thin margin of southern Asia persisted from ca. 200 to 45 Ma whereas trace element paleodepth proxies are interpreted to indicate a thinning phase from ca. 100 to 65 Ma when the crust reached ∼30 km-thickness. As neither of these methods directly measures crustal thickness, resolution of this conflict awaits development of a method that can. Here, in this study, we place bounds on the thickening history of southern Tibet using coupled quartz-zircon thermobarometry and U-Pb geochronology of granitoid plutons in the Gangdese batholith. We find that crustal thicknesses were as high (or higher) as 60–75 km at 65 Ma, or 10–15 Ma prior to the onset of hard continental collision. Magmatic inflation in the lower crust likely contributed to crustal thickening and thermal weakening of the lower crust, suggesting that pure shear in the lower crust was likely the primary accommodation mechanism for N-S shortening during collision. These data are in partial agreement with results of thermoisotopic models of crustal thickness but contradict thickness histories derived from empirical trace element proxies.
Chronobarometry↗
Increased Asian Sulfate Aerosol Emissions Remarkably Enhance Sahel Summer Precipitation
Observational evidence shows that Sahel summer precipitation has experienced a considerable increase since the 1980s, coinciding with significant diverging trends of increased sulfate emissions in Asia and decreased emissions in Europe (dipole pattern of aerosols between Asia and Europe). The decrease in European sulfate aerosols has substantial effects on the Sahel summer precipitation increase, but the corresponding effect of increased Asian sulfate is unknown. Multi-model simulations in the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP) show, compared to decreased European aerosols, that increased Asian aerosols similarly enhance the Sahel summer precipitation but with different large-scale atmospheric circulation changes. Further analysis of the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) simulations under historical attribution and various emission scenarios reinforces the results about the climate impacts of anthropogenic aerosols and suggests that in future scenarios with strong international cooperation and rapid climate mitigations (SSP2-45), the Sahel drought will be intensified likely due to the decline in Asian aerosol emissions. Our results suggest that Asian anthropogenic aerosols are likely a non-negligible driver of the recent recovery in Sahel precipitation amounts
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Radiocarbon Fingerprinting Black Carbon Source History in the Himalayas
Abstract Black carbon (BC) is considered as an important contributor to the Himalayan glaciers melt in the past few decades. However, the long‐term source apportionment of BC remains unclear. Here we present the first radiocarbon ( 14 C)‐based annual variation of BC source apportionment in an ice core spanning the period of 1959–2012 drilled from the Southeastern Tibetan Plateau, a receptor site of South Asia outflow. We find fossil fuel combustion is a major contribution (73% ± 5%), yet the biomass burning fraction ( ƒ biomass ) has grown from 24% ± 4% to 30% ± 4% since 1990. Intriguingly, we further find the ƒ biomass demonstrating a robust correlation with South Asian wildfires linked to climate oscillations. Thus, for mitigating BC impacts on Himalayan glaciers, South Asia's transition from fossil fuels to clean energy is a more efficient and urgent strategy than reducing residential biomass burning.
Wang, Mo [State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau ↗
The Collaborative Seismic Earth Model: Generation 2
Geological interpretations, earthquake source inversions and ground motion modeling, among other applications, require models that jointly resolve crustal and mantle structure. With the second generation of the Collaborative Seismic Earth Model (CSEM2), we present a global multi-resolution tomographic Earth model that serves this purpose. The model evolves through successive regional- and global-scale refinements. While the first generation aggregated regional models, with this study, we ensure consistency between all individual submodels, resulting in a model that accurately explains wave propagation across scales. Recent regional tomographic models were incorporated, comprising continental-scale inversions for Asia and Africa, as well as regional inversions for the Western US, Central Andes, Iran, and Southeast Asia. Across all regional refinements, over 793,000 source-receiver pairs contributed. Moreover, the long-wavelength Earth model (LOWE) introduces large-scale structures outside of pre-existing local refinements. A full-waveform inversion for global anisotropic P-and S-wave speed structure over a total of 194 iterations with a minimum period of 50 s on a large data set of 1 hr of waveform data from 2,423 earthquakes and over 6 million source-receiver pairs ensures that regional updates in the crust and uppermost mantle translate into updates of deeper, global-scale structure. To test the performance of CSEM2, we evaluate waveform fits between observed and synthetic seismograms at 50 s for an independent data set on the global scale, and on the regional scale for lower periods. We accurately simulate waveforms within and across regional refinements, maintaining the original resolution of the submodels embedded in the global framework.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Effect of Rocky Mountains and Tibetan Plateau 1998 Spring Land Temperature on N. American and East Asian Summer Precipitation Anomalies
This work follows up on the GEWEX/LS4P Phase I (LS4P-I) experiments, a community effort highlighting the spring land surface temperature anomalies in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) as a useful source for subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction of summer precipitation in global hot spot regions, particularly in East Asia and North America. This paper extends the investigation to both the US Rocky Mountain (RM) region and the TP, considering the 1998 summer drought/flood event in North America/East Asia, respectively, as a case study. A previously developed initialization method for land surface temperature/subsurface temperature (LST/SUBT) is used in the NCEP Global Forecast System, coupled with a land model, SSiB2 (GFS/SSiB2), to produce observed RM cold May temperature anomaly. Forward simulation yields June precipitation anomalies at five remote locations. Likewise, the TP warm May temperature anomaly also produces June precipitation anomalies at these five locations. The effects of RM (cold) and TP (warm) temperature anomalies are consistent in the US South Coastal regions and the south Yangtze River Basin, yielding 49% (42%) of observed drought and 34% (44%) of observed flood, respectively. These LST/SUBT effects in RM and TP induce a global large-scale wave train linking North America with the TP, affecting the subtropical westerly jet and thereby modulating summer precipitation. Global SST effect is examined for comparison but does not yield statistically significant June precipitation anomalies in GFS/SSiB2. Furthermore, this study adds to evidence that high-mountain LST effects in the RM and TP are first-order sources of S2S precipitation predictability in summer months.
Nayak, Hara Prasad [University of California, Los ↗
Regional and Temporal Variability of Atmospheric River Seasonality: Influences of Detection Algorithms and Moisture Transport Dynamics
Abstract Understanding the regional and temporal variability of atmospheric river (AR) seasonality is crucial for preparedness and mitigation of extreme events. While ARs were thought to peak in winter, recent research shows they exhibit region‐specific seasonality and are heavily influenced by the chosen detection algorithm. This study examines the link between the year‐to‐year consistency of peak‐AR activity to the presence of a dominant seasonal pattern, considering both location and algorithm choice. Regions are categorized by their temporal characteristics: consistent patterns (e.g., East Asia), patterns with occasional outliers (e.g., British Columbia coast), and regions lacking a clear dominant peak season (e.g., South Atlantic, parts of Australia). Hence, not all regions display a consistent seasonal cycle of AR activity. This study quantifies the extent to which a region experiences a dominant peak season of AR activity (or lacks one) and offers insights to enhance decision‐making in water management, natural hazard preparedness, and forecasting. Furthermore, given our finding that detection algorithms influence the peak season of AR activity, we also examine two diagnostic variables representative of moisture transport to corroborate our results. Integrated vapor transport, which captures meridional and zonal moisture transport, and Moist Wave Activity, representing moisture intrusions from lower to higher latitudes, are examined. Our analysis indicates that inconsistencies in the seasonal cycle of AR activity are not solely due to discrepancies in detection algorithms but also arise from changes in moisture transport. Plain Language Summary Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are critical weather phenomena that can cause extreme events like heavy rainfall and flooding. Understanding when and where ARs are most likely to occur throughout the year is essential for preparing and responding to these events. Traditionally, ARs were thought to peak in winter, but recent studies show this varies by region. Our study helps address the challenge decision‐makers face in anticipating and preparing for AR events by providing insights into the consistency of peak seasonal patterns across different areas. Some regions, like East Asia, and the British Columbia coast, show a consistent peak season, while others, like the South Atlantic and parts of Australia, have significant year‐to‐year variations, making it hard to identify a dominant season. To better understand these changes over time, the study also examines how moisture moves in the atmosphere, using Integrated Vapor Transport (which looks at moisture movement in various directions) and Moist Wave Activity (which tracks moisture shifts from lower to higher latitudes). The findings suggest that inconsistencies in AR patterns are due not only to detection methods but also due to changes in moisture transport. Key Points The peak season of atmospheric river activity can change depending on the year in some areas Interannual variations in the peak season can make identifying a dominant season challenging for some regions Frequent shifts in peak season across years reflect inconsistencies tied to detection algorithms and to underlying dynamics
Kamnani, Diya↗