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DOE OSTI2025

Unpacking model inadequacy: The quantification of silver release from TRISO fuel by considering empirical and mechanistic approaches

Increasing adoption of the proposed tristructural isotropic (TRISO) particle fuel for both advanced and existing reactors makes it critical to assess and address any uncertainties and inadequacies of TRISO fission product release models. Model inadequacy stems from simplifications made to the computational model when compared to the experiments. The modeling and simulation efforts conducted using the BISON fuel performance code, along with the experimental campaigns carried out under the Advanced Gas Reactor Fuel Development and Qualification Program, afford a unique opportunity to conduct a rigorous modeling inadequacy assessment within the Bayesian uncertainty quantification (UQ) framework. Here, this study compares the standard Bayesian framework against the Kennedy-O'Hagan (KOH) framework, which explicitly represents modeling inadequacy, in regard to UQ for TRISO silver release models. For this purpose, both the traditional Arrhenius equation fitted to experimental data and the more advanced lower-length-scale (LLS)-informed model, which considers microstructure information, are independently considered. Applying the inverse UQ process on the AGR-2 and -3/4 datasets revealed modeling inadequacy to be the most dominant source of uncertainty. Experimental noise uncertainty is also significant; however, model parameter uncertainty can be considered negligible. Interestingly, both the Arrhenius equation and the LLS-informed model demonstrated similar levels of modeling inadequacy. For the forward predictive UQ, the KOH framework improved both the accuracy and quality of quantified uncertainties in comparison to the standard Bayesian framework. This is true for both the Arrhenius equation and the LLS-informed model. In comparing these modeling approaches, both demonstrated similar performance at the engineering scale, while the LLS-informed model expectedly outperformed the Arrhenius equation at the mesoscale. These conclusions highlight the importance of explicitly accounting for modeling inadequacy in the UQ process, and reinforce the need for continuous refinement of physics-based models in order to address the modeling inadequacy.

Advanced reactors↗

DOE OSTI2025

Understanding Model Inadequacy in TRISO Nuclear Fuel Fission Products Release Models: Empirical and Mechanistic Approaches

The increasing use of tristructural isotropic (TRISO) particle fuel in both advanced and existing reactors necessitates a thorough evaluation of uncertainties and shortcomings in TRISO fission product release models. These inadequacies arise from the simplifications made in computational models compared to experimental data. Utilizing the BISON fuel performance code and experimental data from the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) program provides a unique chance to rigorously assess these inadequacies within a Bayesian uncertainty quantification (UQ) framework. This study contrasts the standard Bayesian framework with the Kennedy-O'Hagan (KOH) framework, which explicitly accounts for modeling inadequacies, in the context of UQ for TRISO silver release models. It examines both the traditional Arrhenius equation and a more advanced lower-length-scale (LLS)-informed model that incorporates microstructure information. The inverse UQ process applied to AGR-2 and AGR-3/4 datasets identified modeling inadequacy as the primary source of uncertainty, with experimental noise also being significant, while model parameter uncertainty was minimal. Both the Arrhenius and LLS-informed models showed similar levels of modeling inadequacy. For forward predictive UQ using the AGR-1 dataset, the KOH framework enhanced the accuracy and quality of quantified uncertainties by approximately 30% and 40%, respectively, compared to the standard Bayesian framework. This improvement was observed for both the Arrhenius and LLS-informed models. At the engineering scale, both models performed similarly, but the LLS-informed model outperformed the Arrhenius equation at the mesoscale. These findings underscore the importance of explicitly considering modeling inadequacy in the UQ process and highlight the need for ongoing refinement of physics-based models to address these shortcomings.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Modeled sensitivity of multi-MA accelerator performance to electrode contaminant inventory

Significant particle-in-cell code development has enabled simulations of power flow in multi-MA accelerators to include the desorption of surface contaminants, their ionization into surface plasmas, and the impact of these plasmas on efficiency. The simulations base desorption on an Arrhenius equation, whose most significant unknown is the surface contaminant inventory. The sensitivity of power-flow simulations to this inventory is studied here using Sandia National Laboratories' Z accelerator with a 7-nH MagLIF load [Phys. Plasmas 17, 056303 (2010)]. Simulations are conducted in 3D cylindrical coordinates for the current-adder, or “convolute,” region of Z and in 2D for the final feed only. Simulated contaminant inventories are varied from 1 to 32 monolayers (MLs) in 2D, and 2 to 4 ML in 3D. The results reveal sensitivities to the local ratio of E/B⁠. The high B-field, low E-field region near the short-circuit load is insensitive to the contaminant inventory, where assumed values of 4–32 ML change the load current by ≤ 2%, and agree with experiment to within 2% at peak current. A 1-ML value is the outlier, increasing the load current by 5%, but still within measurement uncertainty. In contrast, the relatively higher E-field, lower B-field convolute region has slower contaminant desorption and higher-magnitude E-field penetration of the surface plasmas. The current loss in the convolute region does increase with contaminant inventory. The loss assuming 4 ML is 12% larger than for 2 ML, with 4 ML being the better match to experiment.

Arrhenius equation↗

DOE OSTI2025

Database of Nonaqueous Proton-Conducting Materials

This work presents the assembly of 48 papers, representing 74 different compounds and blends, into a machine-readable database of nonaqueous proton-conducting materials. SMILES was used to encode the chemical structures of the molecules, and we tabulated the reported proton conductivity, proton diffusion coefficient, and material composition for a total of 3152 data points. The data spans a broad range of temperatures ranging from -70 to 260 °C. To explore this landscape of nonaqueous proton conductors, DFT was used to calculate the proton affinity of 18 unique proton carriers. The results were then compared to the activation energy derived from fitting experimental data to the Arrhenius equation. It was found that while the widely recognized positive correlation between the activation energy and proton affinity may hold among closely related molecules, this correlation does not necessarily apply across a broader range of molecules. This work serves as an example of the potential analyses that can be conducted using literature data combined with emerging research tools in computation and data science to address specific materials design problems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Reactive Modified Epoxy Resin and Its Miscible Blends Based on Recycled Oligomers from Solvolysis

Chemical depolymerization of fully cured epoxy resin with 20% reactive modifier was successfully performed via a solvent-assisted solvolysis process into low molecular weight recyclable oligomers (RO) at 240 °C in a pressure vessel at 650 psi for 4 h. The thermoset epoxy resin was depolymerized into transparent brown viscous fluid with a higher viscosity than the uncured epoxy resin with approximately 93% yield. Different concentrations of the RO were homogeneously mixed with the pure epoxy resin, and their curing kinetics, viscosity, FTIR, mechanical properties, DMA, and cross-link density were investigated. The curing kinetics of the pure reactive modified epoxy resin (baseline) and its mixtures with RO of different concentrations were investigated under both isothermal and nonisothermal conditions using small amplitude oscillatory shear flow. The elastic and viscous moduli (G′ and G″), complex viscosity (η*), and tan δ values were evaluated at different curing times and temperatures. The G′, G″, and η* increased dramatically, while tan δ decreased strongly by several orders of magnitude at the gel point. The zero-shear viscosity (η 0 ) was determined from the angular frequency dependent on η* based on the Cross model for different blend compositions in the liquid state before curing. The composition dependence of η 0 showed a positive deviation from the linear mixing rule and was well described by the Lecyar model. Here, the apparent activation energy of curing (E a ) was also evaluated according to the Arrhenius equation and was found to be 46 ± 2 kJ/mol regardless of the different contents of RO. For all blends up to 40 wt % RO, only one tan δ peak systematically shifting to lower temperatures with increasing content of RO was observed in the DMA measurements, indicating that the epoxy resin and the RO are miscible with up to 40 wt % RO.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

AWSD reactive flow model for PBX 9404

An Arrhenius–Wescott–Stewart–Davis (AWSD) reactive flow model for high explosive PBX 9404 is developed. We specifically calibrate an AWSD model for PBX 9404 by fitting equations of state for reactants and detonation products to the results of thermochemical calculations and to experimental data from multiple sources. The calibrated equations of state are then coupled with an Arrhenius rate law based on shock temperature that describes the reaction progress during PBX 9404 detonation. The parameter values in the rate law are calibrated to experimental gas-gun data and diameter effect results. The results of the calibrated AWSD model are in strong agreement with available experimental data for PBX 9404. A similar level of agreement between predicted and experimental results is observed when the calibrated model is validated on data that were not used in the model parameterization procedure. Our results illustrate that the AWSD model is capable of accurately describing the many important properties and observables in the reactive burn of PBX 9404. Because of the historical significance of PBX 9404 in high explosives research and its current use in aging studies, this work provides an important model of a legacy material, which can be used to make comparisons to new high explosive formulations.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2026

Investigating shock-induced chemical reactions in Ni+Al multilayers: A continuum-based mesoscale approach with Arrhenius kinetics and artificial thermal conduction

A new continuum-based mesoscale modeling approach for shock-induced chemical reactions (SICRs) in Ni+Al multilayers is demonstrated in Sandia’s shock physics hydrocode, CTH. The approach utilizes Arrhenius-type kinetics and artificial thermal conduction. Our work builds upon previous efforts to parameterize equations of state for Ni x Al y [J. Appl. Phys. 137, 075102 (2025)], as well as simulations of inert shocks in realistic 2D microstructures [J. Appl. Phys. 137, 225301 (2025)]. To calibrate the reaction kinetics, pairs of the reaction coordinate, R′, vs time are extracted from the molecular dynamics (MD) literature. Here, the MD-informed kinetics are used to simulate the dynamic evolution of pressure and temperature in 2D mesoscale simulations. Overall, the MD-informed kinetics obtained for planar interfaces are too slow, as initial reaction is not observed on a nanosecond time scale. Even with quasi-periodic shock focusing leading to the formation of so-called “hot-spots,” the hot spots are unable to grow and coalesce using the fitted Arrhenius rate constants. However, by increasing the rate constants by two orders of magnitude, SICRs are observed at a shock pressure near 30 GPa, which is supported by experiments. Consequently, these mesoscale simulations suggest that unresolved shear-based mechanical mixing might possibly account for the discrepancies in kinetic rates, with shock-generated intense perturbations, interfacial vortical flows, and elevated temperatures serving as favorable reaction conditions. Future work will calibrate a shear-dependent reaction rate from the MD simulations with realistic interfaces that are wavy, diffuse, and disordered.

Kittell, David E. [Sandia National Laboratories (S↗

DOE OSTI2025

A large-scale screening campaign of putative carbohydrate-active enzymes reveals a novel xylanase from anaerobic gut fungi

The genomes of anaerobic gut fungi (AGF) encode a diverse array of carbohydrate-active enzymes (CAZymes), yet exceedingly few of these enzymes have been experimentally validated or expressed in heterologous systems. Here, we developed a predictive bioinformatic pipeline to annotate novel putative CAZymes from anaerobic fungi and validate their activity through large-scale heterologous expression in Escherichia coli. A total of 173 fungal proteins from Piromyces finnis associated with biomass degradation were synthesized and expressed in E. coli, and 9.8% were soluble with expression levels exceeding 5% of the total proteome using high-throughput proteomic screening. Among these 17 heterologously expressed proteins, analysis with AlphaFold and FoldSeek predicted 13 multi-functional proteins containing catalytic domains fused with repetitive fungal dockerins, and half of the substrate predictions were experimentally validated. One promising enzyme, celsome_012, exhibited robust and specific activity against beechwood xylan at 37°C and pH 6.4, with titers that were also fivefold higher than those of other recombinant proteins screened here. Both Michaelis-Menten kinetics and the linearized Lineweaver-Burk equation yielded consistent values for K m , and its activation energy was estimated at 51.9 kJ/mol based on the Arrhenius model. This work supports the industrial translation of anaerobic fungal CAZymes due to their robust lignocellulolytic activity and provides a framework for prioritizing AGF proteins for efficient E. coli heterologous expression.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

AWSD Reactive Burn Model for the HMX‐Based High Explosive LX‐04

An Arrhenius–Wescott–Stewart–Davis (AWSD) reactive burn model is applied to describe shock initiation and detonation properties of the HMX-based high explosive LX-04. The parameters in the model are calibrated to data from multiple sources. The thermodynamic equations of state used in the model are calibrated to a combination of thermochemical calculations for HMX and LX-04 as well as experimentally-measured cylinder expansion results for LX-04. The kinetic parameters are calibrated to velocity data from gas gun experiments performed using EDC-32—a high explosive with the same chemical composition as LX-04 but different structural properties, and scaled rate stick data for PBX 9012. The AWSD model is shown to accurately describe the shock initiation and propagation of LX-04. Very good agreement is observed between the available experimental data and the AWSD model output. The presented results constitute an accurate LX-04 reactive burn model for use in engineering-scale models and simulations.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗