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NASA NTRS2011

Overview and Assessment of Antarctic Ice-Sheet Mass Balance Estimates: 1992-2009

Mass balance estimates for the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) in the 2007 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and in more recent reports lie between approximately ?50 to -250 Gt/year for 1992 to 2009. The 300 Gt/year range is approximately 15% of the annual mass input and 0.8 mm/year Sea Level Equivalent (SLE). Two estimates from radar altimeter measurements of elevation change by European Remote-sensing Satellites (ERS) (?28 and -31 Gt/year) lie in the upper part, whereas estimates from the Input-minus-Output Method (IOM) and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) lie in the lower part (-40 to -246 Gt/year). We compare the various estimates, discuss the methodology used, and critically assess the results. We also modify the IOM estimate using (1) an alternate extrapolation to estimate the discharge from the non-observed 15% of the periphery, and (2) substitution of input from a field data compilation for input from an atmospheric model in 6% of area. The modified IOM estimate reduces the loss from 136 Gt/year to 13 Gt/year. Two ERS-based estimates, the modified IOM, and a GRACE-based estimate for observations within 1992 2005 lie in a narrowed range of ?27 to -40 Gt/year, which is about 3% of the annual mass input and only 0.2 mm/year SLE. Our preferred estimate for 1992 2001 is -47 Gt/year for West Antarctica, ?16 Gt/year for East Antarctica, and -31 Gt/year overall (?0.1 mm/year SLE), not including part of the Antarctic Peninsula (1.07% of the AIS area). Although recent reports of large and increasing rates of mass loss with time from GRACE-based studies cite agreement with IOM results, our evaluation does not support that conclusion

Zwally, H. Jay↗

NASA NTRS2011

Assessment of Antarctic Ice-Sheet Mass Balance Estimates: 1992 - 2009

Published mass balance estimates for the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) lie between approximately +50 to -250 Gt/year for 1992 to 2009, which span a range equivalent to 15% of the annual mass input and 0.8 mm/year Sea Level Equivalent (SLE). Two estimates from radar-altimeter measurements of elevation change by European Remote-sensing Satellites (ERS) (+28 and -31 Gt/year) lie in the upper part, whereas estimates from the Input-minus-Output Method (IOM) and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) lie in the lower part (-40 to -246 Gt/year). We compare the various estimates, discuss the methodology used, and critically assess the results. Although recent reports of large and accelerating rates of mass loss from GRACE=based studies cite agreement with IOM results, our evaluation does not support that conclusion. We find that the extrapolation used in the published IOM estimates for the 15 % of the periphery for which discharge velocities are not observed gives twice the rate of discharge per unit of associated ice-sheet area than the 85% faster-moving parts. Our calculations show that the published extrapolation overestimates the ice discharge by 282 Gt/yr compared to our assumption that the slower moving areas have 70% as much discharge per area as the faster moving parts. Also, published data on the time-series of discharge velocities and accumulation/precipitation do not support mass output increases or input decreases with time, respectively. Our modified IOM estimate, using the 70% discharge assumption and substituting input from a field-data compilation for input from an atmospheric model over 6% of area, gives a loss of only 13 Gt/year (versus 136 Gt/year) for the period around 2000. Two ERS-based estimates, our modified IOM, and a GRACE-based estimate for observations within 1992 to 2005 lie in a narrowed range of +27 to - 40 Gt/year, which is about 3% of the annual mass input and only 0.2 mm/year SLE. Our preferred estimate for 1992-2001 is - 47 Gt/year for West Antarctica, + 16 Gt/year for East Antarctica, and -31 Gt/year overall (+0.1 mm/year SLE), not including part of the Antarctic Peninsula (1.07 % of the AIS area)

Zwally, H. Jay↗

NASA NTRS2003

Antarctic Ice-Sheet Mass Balance from Satellite Altimetry 1992 to 2001

A major uncertainty in understanding the causes of the current rate of sea level rise is the potential contributions from mass imbalances of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Estimates of the current mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet are derived from surface- elevation changes obtained from 9 years of ERS - 1 & 2 radar altimeter data. Elevation time-series are created from altimeter crossovers among 90-day data periods on a 50 km grid to 81.5 S. The time series are fit with a multivariate linear/sinusoidal function to give the average rate of elevation change (dH/dt). On the major Rome-Filchner, Ross, and Amery ice shelves, the W d t are small or near zero. In contrast, the ice shelves of the Antarctic Peninsula and along the West Antarctic coast appear to be thinning significantly, with a 23 +/- 3 cm per year surface elevation decrease on the Larsen ice shelf and a 65 +/- 4 cm per year decrease on the Dotson ice shelf. On the grounded ice, significant elevation decreases are obtained over most of the drainage basins of the Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers in West Antarctica and inland of Law Dome in East Antarctica. Significant elevation increases are observed within about 200 km of the coast around much of the rest of the ice sheet. Farther inland, the changes are a mixed pattern of increases and decreases with increases of a few centimeters per year at the highest elevations of the East Antarctic plateau. The derived elevation changes are combined with estimates of the bedrock uplift from several models to provide maps of ice thickness change. The ice thickness changes enable estimates of the ice mass balances for the major drainage basins, the overall mass balance, and the current contribution of the ice sheet to global sea level change.

Zwally, H. Jay↗

NASA NTRS2011

Analysis of Antarctic Ice-Sheet Mass Balance from ICESat Measurements

If protoplanets formed from 10 to 20 kilometer diameter planetesimals in a runaway accretion process prior to their oligarchic growth into the terrestrial planets, it is only logical to ask where these planetesimals may have formed in order to assess the initial composition of the Earth. We have used Weidenschilling's model for the formation of comets (1997) to calculate an efficiency factor for the formation of planetesimals from the solar nebula, then used this factor to calculate the feeding zones that contribute to material contained within 10, 15 and 20 kilometer diameter planetesimals at 1 A.V. as a function of nebular mass. We find that for all reasonable nebular masses, these planetesimals contain a minimum of 3% water as ice by mass. The fraction of ice increases as the planetesimals increase in size and as the nebular mass decreases, since both factors increase the feeding zones from which solids in the final planetesimals are drawn. Is there really a problem with the current accretion scenario that makes the Earth too dry, or is it possible that the nascent Earth lost significant quantities of water in the final stages of accretion?

Zwally, H. Jay↗

NASA NTRS2011

Mass Balance of the West Antarctic Ice-Sheet from ICESat Measurements

Mass balance estimates for 2003-2008 are derived from ICESat laser altimetry and compared with estimates for 1992-2002 derived from ERS radar altimetry. The net mass balance of 3 drainage systems (Pine Island, Thwaites/Smith, and the coast of Marie Bryd) for 2003-2008 is a loss of 100 Gt/yr, which increased from a loss of 70 Gt/yr for the earlier period. The DS including the Bindschadler and MacAyeal ice streams draining into the Ross Ice Shelf has a mass gain of 11 Gt/yr for 2003-2008, compared to an earlier loss of 70 Gt/yr. The DS including the Whillans and Kamb ice streams has a mass gain of 12 Gt/yr, including a significant thickening on the upper part of the Kamb DS, compared to a earlier gain of 6 Gt/yr (includes interpolation for a large portion of the DS). The other two DS discharging into the Ronne Ice Shelf and the northern Ellsworth Coast have a mass gain of 39 Gt/yr, compared to a gain of 4 Gt/yr for the earlier period. Overall, the increased losses of 30 Gt/yr in the Pine Island, Thwaites/Smith, and the coast of Marie Bryd DSs are exceeded by increased gains of 59 Gt/yr in the other 4 DS. Overall, the mass loss from the West Antarctic ice sheet has decreased to 38 Gt/yr from the earlier loss of 67 Gt/yr, reducing the contribution to sea level rise to 0.11 mm/yr from 0.19 mm/yr

Zwally, H. Jay↗

NASA NTRS2000

Participation in the GISS EOS Proposal

To model the mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic ice-sheets, Research Assistant Veronique Bugnion developed a snowpack model which embodies a physically based approach to modeling the temperature and density distribution of a snow, firn, and ice mixture. The snowpack model performed satisfactorily in capturing the surface energy balance and melt amounts measured at stations in Greenland and Antarctica. Also a comparison between the predicted extent of the wet snow zone obtained with the model and the same quantity derived from satellite microwave measurements showed excellent agreement. In addition the model's simulated total runoff was close to the best estimates from observations for the Greenland and Antarctic ice caps. Ms. Bugnion and research scientist Andrei Sokolov coupled the snowpack model to the climate submodel of MIT's Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) and integrated forward over the 21st century for a range of climate change scenarios, using forcings from simulations with the IGSM. The changes in mass balance of the ice caps were then translated into changes in sea level. For the scenarios with small to moderate warming, the runoff from Greenland and Antarctica is minimal. For the scenarios with a larger warming, there is a net increase in sea-level of 2-3 cm from Greenland, and a decrease of between 2 and 5 cm from Antarctica. These results show that the net change in sea level which can be expected to follow climatic changes in the Arctic and Antarctic regions, a decrease of 2 to 4 cm or less by the end of the 21st century, is smaller than most previously published estimates.

Stone, Peter H.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Satellite Radar Interferometry for Monitoring Ice-Sheet Motion: Application to an Antarctic Ice Stream

As a new means of monitoring the flow velocities and grounding-line positions of ice streams, which are indicators of response of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets to climatic change or internal instability, the method of satellite radar interferometry (SRI) is here proposed and applied to the Rutford Ice Stream, Antarctica. The method uses phase comparison of the radar signal obtained for a pair of SAR images taken a few days apart to plot an interferogram which directly displays relative ground motions that have occurred in the time interval between images. The detection limit is about 1.5 mm for vertical motions and about 4 mm for horizontal motions in the radar beam direction. In the Rutford Ice Stream, SRI velocities agree fairly well with earlier ground-truth data over a longitudinal interval of 29 km; the comparison suggests a secular decrease in velocity of about 2 percent from 1978-80 to 1992...

Goldstein, R. M.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Satellite Radar Interferometry for Monitoring Ice-Sheet Motion: Application to an Antarctic Ice Stream

Goldstein, R. M.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Ice measurements by Geosat radar altimetry

Radar altimetry for ice-covered ocean and land is more complex and variable than open ocean radar altimetry; attention is presently given to Geosat ice-sheet topography for the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets between 72 deg N and 72 deg S which owes its excellent accuracy to the well separated spacing of the orbital tracks and an 18-month geodetic mission duration. A surface elevation map of southern Greenland, produced from 110 days of retracked Geosat data, is presented in color-coded three-dimensional perspective. Comparisons are made between Seasat and Geosat data for ice mass elevations in Greenland.

Zwally, H. Jay↗

NASA NTRS2026

Towards an improved understanding of the Antarctic coastal zone and its contribution to future global sea level

Understanding the coastal zone of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, where it interacts with the Southern Ocean and warmer air masses, is crucial for predicting Antarctica's influence on the global climate. This region has multiple tipping mechanisms that could trigger large, rapid, and potentially irreversible changes in the coming centuries. The Antarctic Ice Sheet remains the largest source of uncertainty in future sea-level projections. Insufficient knowledge of bed topography beneath the ice shelves and the coastal ice sheet is not yet well documented, but is a major source of this uncertainty. This review assesses current knowledge of the coastal zone and highlights methods to investigate it, including aerogeophysical surveys, ground- and ship-based measurements, satellite observations, and computer modeling. An ensemble analysis of published bed topography datasets identifies significant data gaps and their regional distribution, framed in the context of current ice-sheet behavior and potential instability. We propose scientific priorities and guidelines for future aerogeophysical surveys, advocating for a comprehensive, coordinated international effort to build a next-generation dataset of Antarctic bed properties. Such an initiative would significantly advance understanding of the role of coastal processes in ice-sheet dynamics, reducing uncertainties in sea-level rise projections and enhancing predictions of future ocean and climate changes.

Kenichi Matsuoka↗

NASA NTRS2026

Towards an Improved Understanding of the Antarctic Coastal Zone and Its Contribution to Future Global Sea Level

Understanding the coastal zone of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS), where it interacts with the Southern Ocean and warmer air masses, is crucial for predicting Antarctica's influence on the global climate and sea level. This region has multiple tipping mechanisms that could trigger large, rapid, and potentially irreversible changes in the AIS, the Southern Ocean and their global connections in the coming centuries. The AIS remains the largest source of uncertainty in future sea-level projections. Bed topography beneath the ice shelves and the coastal ice sheet is not yet well documented, and is a major source of this uncertainty. This review assesses current knowledge of the coastal zone and highlights methods to investigate it, including aerogeophysical surveys, ground- and ship-based measurements, satellite observations, and computer modeling. An ensemble analysis of published bed topography data sets identifies significant data gaps and their regional distribution, framed in the context of current ice-sheet behavior and potential instability. We propose scientific priorities and guidelines for future aerogeophysical surveys, advocating for a comprehensive, coordinated international effort to build a next-generation data set of Antarctic bed properties. Such an initiative would significantly advance understanding of the role of coastal processes in ice-sheet dynamics, reducing uncertainties in sea-level rise projections and improving predictions of future ocean and climate changes.

Kenichi Matsuoka↗

NASA NTRS2010

Overview of Ice-Sheet Mass Balance and Dynamics from ICESat Measurements

The primary purpose of the ICESat mission was to determine the present-day mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, identify changes that may be occurring in the surface-mass flux and ice dynamics, and estimate their contributions to global sea-level rise. Although ICESat's three lasers were planned to make continuous measurements for 3 to 5 years, the mission was re-planned to operate in 33-day campaigns 2 to 3 times each year following failure of the first laser after 36 days. Seventeen campaigns were conducted with the last one in the Fall of 2009. Mass balance maps derived from measured ice-sheet elevation changes show that the mass loss from Greenland has increased significantly to about 170 Gt/yr for 2003 to 2007 from a state of near balance in the 1990's. Increased losses (189 Gt/yr) from melting and dynamic thinning are over seven times larger'than increased gains (25 gt/yr) from precipitation. Parts of the West Antarctic ice sheet and the Antarctic Peninsula are losing mass at an increasing rate, but other parts of West Antarctica and the East Antarctic ice sheet are gaining mass at an increasing rate. Increased losses of 35 Gt/yr in Pine Island, Thwaites-Smith, and Marie-Bryd.Coast are more than balanced by gains in base of Peninsula and ice stream C, D, & E systems. From the 1992-2002 to 2003-2007 period, the overall mass balance for Antarctica changed from a loss of about 60 Gt/yr to near balance or slightly positive.

Zwally, H. Jay↗

NASA NTRS1993

The effect of sub-surface volume scattering on the accuracy of ice-sheet altimeter retracking algorithms

The NASA and ESA retracking algorithms are compared with an algorithm based upon a combined surface and volume (S/V) scattering model. First, the S/V, NASA, and ESA algorithms were used to retrack over 400,000 altimeter return waveforms from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. The surface elevations from the S/V algorithm were compared with the elevations produced by the NASA and ESA algorithms to determine the relative accuracy of these algorithms when subsurface volume-scattering occurs. The results show that the NASA algorithm produced surface elevations within 35 to 50 cm of the S/V algorithm, while the performance of the ESA algorithm was slightly worse. Next, by analyzing several thousand satellite crossover points from the Antarctic data set, we determined the retracking algorithm that produced the most repeatable surface elevations. The elevations derived from the S/V algorithm had the smallest RMS error for the region of the East Antarctic plateau examined here. The ESA algorithm produced erroneous estimates of elevation change when seasonal variations were present; it measured 0.7 to 1.6-m change in elevation over a 6-month period on the East Antarctic plateau where accumulation rates are only 10 cm/year.

Davis, Curt H.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Advances in Measuring Antarctic Sea-Ice Thickness and Ice-Sheet Elevations with ICESat Laser Altimetry

NASA's Ice, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) has been measuring elevations of the Antarctic ice sheet and sea-ice freeboard elevations with unprecedented accuracy. Since February 20,2003, data has been acquired during three periods of laser operation varying from 36 to 54 days, which is less than the continuous operation of 3 to 5 years planned for the mission. The primary purpose of ICESat is to measure time-series of ice-sheet elevation changes for determination of the present-day mass balance of the ice sheets, study of associations between observed ice changes and polar climate, and estimation of the present and future contributions of the ice sheets to global sea level rise. ICESat data will continue to be acquired for approximately 33 days periods at 3 to 6 month intervals with the second of ICESat's three lasers, and eventually with the third laser. The laser footprints are about 70 m on the surface and are spaced at 172 m along-track. The on-board GPS receiver enables radial orbit determinations to an accuracy better than 5 cm. The orbital altitude is around 600 km at an inclination of 94 degrees with a 8-day repeat pattern for the calibration and validation period, followed by a 91 -day repeat period for the rest of the mission. The expected range precision of single footprint measurements was 10 cm, but the actual range precision of the data has been shown to be much better at 2 to 3 cm. The star-tracking attitude-determination system should enable footprints to be located to 6 m horizontally when attitude calibrations are completed. With the present attitude calibration, the elevation accuracy over the ice sheets ranges from about 30 cm over the low-slope areas to about 80 cm over areas with slopes of 1 to 2 degrees, which is much better than radar altimetry. After the first period of data collection, the spacecraft attitude was controlled to point the laser beam to within 50 m of reference surface tracks over the ice sheets. Detection of ice elevation changes over select areas of the ice sheet is demonstrated with using both crossover analysis and precise-repeat track analysis. Sea ice freeboard-height distributions over the Antarctic sea pack are derived over distances of 50 km and converted into maps of average freeboard thickness and sea-ice thickness.

Zwally, H. Jay↗

NASA NTRS2001

Modeled Seasonal Variations of Firn Density Induced by Steady State Surface Air Temperature Cycle

Seasonal variations of firn density in ice-sheet firn layers have been attributed to variations in deposition processes or other processes within the upper firn. A recent high-resolution (mm scale) density profile, measured along a 181 m core from Antarctica, showed small-scale density variations with a clear seasonal cycle that apparently was not-related to seasonal variations in deposition or known near-surface processes (Gerland and others 1999). A recent model of surface elevation changes (Zwally and Li, submitted) produced a seasonal variation in firn densification, and explained the seasonal surface elevation changes observed by satellite radar altimeters. In this study, we apply our 1-D time-dependent numerical model of firn densification that includes a temperature-dependent formulation of firn densification based on laboratory measurements of grain growth. The model is driven by a steady-state seasonal surface temperature and a constant accumulation rate appropriate for the measured Antarctic ice core. The modeled seasonal variations in firn density show that the layers of snow deposited during spring to mid-summer with the highest temperature history compress to the highest density, and the layers deposited during later summer to autumn with the lowest temperature history compress to the lowest density. The initial amplitude of the seasonal difference of about 0.13 reduces to about 0.09 in five years and asymptotically to 0.92 at depth, which is consistent with the core measurements.

Jun, Li↗

NASA NTRS1993

Irregular oscillations of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

Model simulations of the West Antarctic ice sheet suggest that sporadic, perhaps chaotic, collapse (complete mobilization) of the ice sheet occurred throughout the past one million years. The irregular behavior is due to the slow equilibration time of the distribution of basal till, which lubricates ice-sheet motion. This nonlinear response means that predictions of future collapse of the ice sheet in response to global warming must take into account its past history, and in particular, whether the present basal till distribution predisposes the ice sheet towards rapid change.

Macayeal, Douglas R.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Geologic controls on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

The stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is intertwined with its geologic history. The sub-ice geology and the possibility of active rifting and associated elevated heat-flux and volcanism might be determining factors in ice-sheet behavior. Seismic monitoring of natural events at the base of Ice Stream C reveals the presence of a young sedimentary basin beneath the ice stream. The sediments are presumed to be of glacio-marine origin, similar to those beneath Ice Stream B and in the Ross Sea. The young sediments are approximately 1/2 km thick at UpC camp, but thin abruptly southward to 100 m or less. We hypothesize the presence of a fault with a throw of 400 m to account for this (though we have not directly detected the fault), rather than invoking unrealistic basement dips. To extend these studies to critical inland regions, we suggest an expanded explosive-source seismic survey of the Byrd Subglacial Basin to determine the extent and character of the hypothesized rift basin. High-resolution seismic monitoring will detect layering in the sedimentary column, as well as possibly imaging faults directly.

Anandakrishnan, Sridhar↗

NASA NTRS1999

Elevation Change of the Southern Greenland Ice Sheet from Satellite Radar Altimeter Data

Long-term changes in the thickness of the polar ice sheets are important indicators of climate change. Understanding the contributions to the global water mass balance from the accumulation or ablation of grounded ice in Greenland and Antarctica is considered crucial for determining the source of the about 2 mm/yr sea-level rise in the last century. Though the Antarctic ice sheet is much larger than its northern counterpart, the Greenland ice sheet is more likely to undergo dramatic changes in response to a warming trend. This can be attributed to the warmer Greenland climate, as well as a potential for amplification of a global warming trend in the polar regions of the Northern Hemisphere. In collaboration with Drs. Curt Davis and Craig Kluever of the University of Missouri, we are using data from satellite radar altimeters to measure changes in the elevation of the Southern Greenland ice sheet from 1978 to the present. Difficulties with systematic altimeter measurement errors, particularly in intersatellite comparisons, beset earlier studies of the Greenland ice sheet thickness. We use altimeter data collected contemporaneously over the global ocean to establish a reference for correcting ice-sheet data. In addition, the waveform data from the ice-sheet radar returns are reprocessed to better determine the range from the satellite to the ice surface. At JPL, we are focusing our efforts principally on the reduction of orbit errors and range biases in the measurement systems on the various altimeter missions. Our approach emphasizes global characterization and reduction of the long-period orbit errors and range biases using altimeter data from NASA's Ocean Pathfinder program. Along-track sea-height residuals are sequentially filtered and backwards smoothed, and the radial orbit errors are modeled as sinusoids with a wavelength equal to one revolution of the satellite. The amplitudes of the sinusoids are treated as exponentially-correlated noise processes with a time-constant of six days. Measurement errors (e.g., altimeter range bias) are simultaneously recovered as constant parameters. The corrections derived from the global ocean analysis are then applied over the Greenland ice sheet. The orbit error and measurement bias corrections for different missions are developed in a single framework to enable robust linkage of ice-sheet measurements from 1978 to the present. In 1998, we completed our re-evaluation of the 1978 Seasat and 1985-1989 Geosat Exact Repeat Mission data. The estimates of ice thickness over Southern Greenland (south of 72N and above 2000 m) from 1978 to 1988 show large regional variations (+/-18 cm/yr), but yield an overall rate of +1.5 +/- 0.5 cm/yr (one standard error). Accounting for systematic errors, the estimate may not be significantly different from the null growth rate. The average elevation change from 1978 to 1988 is too small to assess whether the Greenland ice sheet is undergoing a long-term change.

Haines, Bruce J.↗