Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Analytical sensitivity analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 records

Analytical Sensitivity Analysis of a Spent Nuclear Fuel Cask

Here, we report nuclear science and engineering is a field increasingly dominated by computational studies resulting from increasingly powerful computational tools. As a result, analytical studies, which previously pioneered nuclear engineering, are increasingly viewed as secondary or unnecessary. However, analytical solutions to reduced-fidelity models can provide important information concerning the underlying physics of a problem and aid in guiding computational studies. Similarly, there is increased interest in sensitivity analysis studies. These studies commonly use computational tools. However, providing a complementary sensitivity study of relevant analytical models can lead to a deeper analysis of a problem. This work provides the analytical sensitivity analysis of the one-dimensional (1D) cylindrical mono-energetic neutron diffusion equation using the forward sensitivity analysis procedure (FSAP) developed by Cacuci. Further, these results are applied to a reduced-fidelity model of a spent nuclear fuel cask, demonstrating how computational analysis might be improved with a complementary analytic sensitivity analysis.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Analytical Voltage Sensitivity Analysis for Unbalanced Power Distribution System

Large scale integration of distributed energy resources and electric vehicles in a transactive energy environment present new challenges in terms of voltage stability and fluctuations in a power distribution system. The impact of different level of DER/EV penetration on the voltages across the network is typically quantified through voltage sensitivity analyses. Existing methods of voltage sensitivity analysis are computationally expensive and prior efforts to develop analytical approximation lacks generality and have not been effectively validated. The objective of this work is to provide a new analytical method of voltage sensitivity analysis that has low computational cost and also allows for stochastic analysis of voltage change. This paper first derives an analytical approximation of change in voltage at a particular bus due to change in power consumption at other bus in a radial three phase unbalanced power distribution system. Then, the proposed method is shown to be valid for different load configurations, which demonstrates its generality. The results from our analytical approach is validated via classical load flow simulation of the test system based on IEEE 37 bus network. The proposed method is shown to have good accuracy, and computation complexity is of order O(1), compared to O(n3) in classical sensitivity analysis approaches.

Munikoti, Sai↗

Multiscale design of nonlinear materials using a Eulerian shape optimization scheme

Motivated by recent advances in manufacturing, the design of materials is the focal point of interest in the material research community. One of the critical challenges in this field is finding optimal material microstructure for a desired macroscopic response. This work presents a computational method for the mesoscale-level design of particulate composites for an optimal macroscale-level response. The method relies on a custom shape optimization scheme to find the extrema of a nonlinear cost function subject to a set of constraints. Three key “modules” constitute the method: multiscale modeling, sensitivity analysis, and optimization. Multiscale modeling relies on a classical homogenization method and a nonlinear NURBS-based generalized finite element scheme to efficiently and accurately compute the structural response of particulate composites using a nonconformal discretization. A three-parameter isotropic damage law is used to model microstructure-level failure. An analytical sensitivity method is developed to compute the derivatives of the cost/constraint functions with respect to the design variables that control the microstructure's geometry. The derivation uncovers subtle but essential new terms contributing to the sensitivity of finite element shape functions and their spatial derivatives. Several structural problems are solved to demonstrate the applicability, performance, and accuracy of the method for the design of particulate composites with a desired macroscopic nonlinear stress-strain response.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Probabilistic Voltage Sensitivity Analysis to Quantify Impact of High PV Penetration on Unbalanced Distribution System

From an operational and planning perspective, it is important to quantify the impact of increasing penetration of photovoltaics on the distribution system. Most existing impact assessment studies are scenario-based where derived results are scenario specific and not generalizable. Moreover, stochasticity in the temporal behavior of spatially distributed PVs requires a large number of scenarios that increase with the size of the network and the level of penetration. Therefore, we propose a new computationally efficient analytical framework of voltage sensitivity analysis that allows for stochastic analysis of voltage change due to random changes in PV generation. We first derive an analytical approximation for voltage change at any node of the network due to change in power at other nodes in an unbalanced distribution network. The quality of this approximation is reinforced via bounds on the approximation error. Then, we derive the probability distribution of voltage change at a certain node due to random changes in power injections/consumptions at multiple locations of the network. The accuracy of the proposed PVSA is illustrated using a modified version of the IEEE 37 bus test system. As a result, the proposed PVSA can serve as a powerful tool for proactive monitoring/control and ease the computational burden associated with perturbation based cybersecurity mechanisms.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Perturbation-Based Diagnosis of False Data Injection Attack Using Distributed Energy Resources

Modern smart grid relies on various sensor measurements for its operational control. In a successful false data injection attack, the attacker manipulates the measurements from the grid sensors such that undetected errors are introduced into the estimates of the system parameters leading to catastrophic situations. This paper proposes a novel perturbation based false data injection attack detection mechanism that utilizes inverter based distributed energy resources (DERs) to create low magnitude perturbation signal in the distribution system voltage that is inconsequential to the normal grid operation. Two voltage sensitivity analysis based algorithms are designed to identify the optimal set of DERs that can create the voltage perturbation signal of desired magnitude. An analytical method of voltage sensitivity analysis is used to compute the magnitude of voltage perturbation signal at each node in a computationally efficient manner. Then, a detection mechanism is developed that checks for the presence of the perturbation sequence in each sensor measurement. A sensor measurement is deemed authentic if the voltage perturbation signal is present in the data. In case of sensor malfunction or cyber-attack, the perturbation signal will not be present in the measurement data. Performance of the proposed attack detection mechanism is validated via simulation of the IEEE 69 bus test system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Deep eutectic solvents as green and sustainable diluents in headspace gas chromatography for the determination of trace level genotoxic impurities in pharmaceuticals

Genotoxic impurities (GTIs) are potential carcinogens that need to be controlled down to ppm or lower concentration levels in pharmaceuticals under strict regulations. The static headspace gas chromatography (HS-GC) coupled with electron capture detection (ECD) is an effective approach to monitor halogenated and nitroaromatic genotoxins. Deep eutectic solvents (DESs) possess tunable physico-chemical properties and low vapor pressure for HS-GC methods. In this study, zwitterionic and non-ionic DESs have been used for the first time to develop and validate a sensitive analytical method for the analysis of 24 genotoxins at sub-ppm concentrations. Compared to non-ionic diluents, zwitterionic DESs produced exceptional analytical performance and the betaine: 7 (1,4- butane diol) DES outperformed the betaine: 5 (1,4-butane diol) DES. Limits of detection (LOD) down to the 5-ppb concentration level were achieved in DESs. Wide linear ranges spanning over 5 orders of magnitude (0.005–100 µg g –1 ) were obtained for most analytes with exceptional sensitivities and high precision. The method accuracy and precision were validated using 3 commercially available drug substances and excellent recoveries were obtained. Finally, this study broadens the applicability of HS-GC in the determination of less volatile GTIs by establishing DESs as viable diluent substitutes for organic solvents in routine pharmaceutical analysis.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Control Parameter Sensitivity Study for Inverter-Based-Resource Dominated Grids: A Small Signal Stability Approach and Framework

The growing adoption of renewable energy is driving the prevalence of inverter-based resources (IBRs) within power grids. Future power grids will integrate both grid-following IBRs (GFM-IBRs) and grid-forming IBRs (GFL-IBRs) alongside synchronous generators. Therefore, it is crucial to perform stability studies that account for all components and especially control interactions related to IBRs. Extensive research has performed to study the IBR-related stability, however, the sensitivity study of IBRs' control parameters on system stability has not been adequately studied yet, especially from a systematic way. Therefore, this paper conducts a small signal stability analysis for a generic grid with multiple types of resources and develops an analytical framework for assessing the sensitivity of control parameters affecting stability margins. To achieve that, the non-autonomous reduced-order non-linear dynamic model is developed for a generic power system with multiple synchronous generator-based resources (SGBRs), GFM-IBRs, and GFL-IBRs. Based on the analytic model, a systematic framework for parametric sensitivity on systems' asymptotic stability is developed. A parameter sensitivity analysis based on eigenvalue methods is proposed. The impact of the droop controllers of GFM-IBRs, PQ-dispatch and the PLL controller of GFL-IBR on the system asymptotic stability is discussed. This sensitivity study is aiming to provide deep insights on control parameters' impact on system stability, and gives direction for parameter tuning in case of instability.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

An Analytic Benchmark for Neutron Boltzmann Transport with Downscattering—Part I: Flux and Eigenvalue Solutions

Computing in the energy dimension is one of the greatest challenges confronting present-day deterministic neutron transport solvers. Accurately resolving the neutron flux as neutrons downscatter across resonances in the nuclear cross sections currently requires considerable computing power and suffers from approximation errors. Flux uncertainty resulting from the uncertainty of the resonance structure is the single-largest cause of reactivity uncertainty. Any additional reference solution for the critical neutron downscattering problem with resonance phenomena would be a boon to verification and validation of neutronics codes. This paper establishes a benchmark to verify the accuracy of neutron transport criticality solvers along the energy dimension. For the first time, the analytic solution of the flux amplitude is derived in the particular case of an infinite homogeneous medium with isotropic scattering in the center of mass and an arbitrary number of no-threshold, neutral particle reaction resonances (e.g., radiative capture, fission, and resonance scattering). Furthermore, original analytic expressions are established to quantify the discrepancy between the ψ k (E) and ψ α (E) flux amplitudes, respective solutions of the multiplication factor k, or the exponential time-evolution frequency α eigenproblems. The physical study of these relations led to analysis of their first-order relative difference near the criticality condition α=0. Finally, numerical solutions are provided to a benchmark problem constituted of the first resonance of 239 Pu, the 6.67-eV resonance of 238 U, and a scattering isotope with a flat cross section, allowing for the computational verification of the energy resolution of current neutron transport criticality codes. Through these novel results, this analytic benchmark can serve as a reference to verify the energy resolution and sensitivity analysis of neutron transport criticality calculations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Real-Time Screening for Uranium Enrichment by Paper Spray Ionization Mass Spectrometry for Field Applications

A rapid isotope ratio screening technique for uranium enrichment is demonstrated by utilizing paper spray ionization (PSI) high-resolution mass spectrometry (HRMS). Measurements were conducted using an ambient ionization mass spectrometer coupled to a custom-made JEOL PSI attachment apparatus, with de minimus sample preparation requirements. The current method detection limit for individual isotopes (e.g., 235 U and 238 U) is approximately 50 pg, with subsequent optimization expected to further improve U isotopic sensitivity. The PSI analytical method described herein can support rapid analysis (both in-field and in-lab screening) of isotopes-of-interest, as demonstrated by empirical differentiation of depleted uranium (DU) and low enriched uranium (LEU) analytical aliquots. Furthermore, this analytical workflow holds promise for applications in nuclear forensics, international nuclear safeguards, and nonproliferation missions.

Anions↗

Transformational challenge reactor analysis to inform preconceptual core design decisions: Sensitivity study of transient analysis in a hydride-moderated microreactor

The Transformational Challenge Reactor (TCR) program aims to demonstrate a revolutionary design approach enabled by advanced manufacturing and data analytics in the design of nuclear reactors. This article discusses scoping analyses of preconceptual designs to inform TCR design decisions and the evaluation of sensitivities and uncertainties on postulated transient scenarios. The applicability of the systems codes TRACE and RELAP5-3D to TCR transient analysis are examined, and RELAP5-3D models are used to examine the transient response of two candidate core designs at multiple power levels. Then, the uncertainty quantification code RAVEN is used to quantify the effect of several design parameters on reactivity-initiated accident (RIA) progression at hot zero power (HZP) and hot full power (HFP) as well as to assess the impact of uncertainties in transient parameters for the pressurized loss of forced cooling (PLOFC).When results were compared, TRACE and RELAP5-3D showed good agreement in their ability to predict system behavior, but RELAP5-3D calculations were closer to analytical predictions for the RIA. Furthermore, models for a PLOFC accident in two designs (a UO2 and TRISO core) at multiple power levels showed greater temperature margins for the TRISO core at all power levels. Using this information, along with other scoping analyses and constraints, the TCR design team selected a power level of 3 MWth and a TRISO-based core design. For this design RAVEN was applied to vary RIA parameters in RELAP5-3D models at HZP and HFP to understand the effect on figures of merit such as peak power, fuel and coolant temperature, and energy deposition. This sensitivity study found that the inserted reactivity worth was the most important parameter controlling all figures of merit, but for insertion up to 1.5$ no failure of TCR fuel is anticipated. For constant reactivity insertions, the magnitude of the fuel temperature coefficient was found to have the greatest effect on all figures of merit under most circumstances. These results not only demonstrate the anticipated robust safety of the proposed TCR fuel form but also provide a reference for future metal-hydride moderated systems to understand RIA behavior. In the PLOFC, the impact of heat transfer enhancement due to wavy flow channel effects dominated the variance in peak temperatures, and variations in heat exchanger elevation provided the greatest control on natural circulation flow rate. Additionally, no fuel particle failure is anticipated in the PLOFC.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Evaluation of Minimum Detectable Activities for Stack Sample Analyses

The Rad-NESHAP program takes samples at major point sources to track how much of select nuclides are being emitted out of the stack. Samples are taken at the site where the radiological operations are being performed. The samples are then sent to analytical laboratories for analysis to determine what nuclides exist in the sample. However, due to the sensitivity of the instruments, false positives are often reported. To reduce the number of false positives, the results reported from the analytical labs are compared to set detection limits. Anything below the set detection limit is considered part of the background while anything above the limit is considered a positive hit. Therefore, the detection limit must be set low enough that any false negatives do not result in a significant dose missed at the end of the year but high enough that there are not enough false positives to skew the annual dose being reported. All detection limits listed in this section for the analyses below were designed to meet the stated equivalent emissions rate and subsequent off-site doses. These minimum detectable activities (MDAs) were developed in the 1990s and documented in the memo cited for each analysis below. These limits and memos are all currently referenced in the Quality Assurance Project Plan (QAPP) for the Rad-NESHAP Compliance Task, which is being updated to a Project Implementation Plan (PIP) concurrently with this document. As part of this update process, the original MDAs defined in this section needed to be verified that they were still conservative and meet the off-site dose levels stated.

2019 MDA↗

Comprehensive review of combustion ion chromatography for the analysis of total, adsorbable, and extractable organic fluorine

Poly‐ and perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are a class of persistent organic pollutants whose high stability and appreciable water solubility have led to near‐global contamination. PFAS are bioaccumulative toxins that have been linked to a myriad of disorders and have been detected nearly universally in human blood. Liquid chromatography‐tandem mass spectrometry is the most frequent method used for quantitation, though this typically only measures a few dozen of the >14 000 known PFAS and has been shown to account for a small portion of the total organic fluorine present. Sum parameter methods such as total, extractable, and adsorbable organic fluorine have emerged as alternative measurements for PFAS determination. Combustion ion chromatography has become the preferred method for organofluorine measurement where the sorbent or extract containing PFAS is combusted and the emitted hydrofluoric acid (HF) is a measure of the cumulative organofluorine present. Herein we critically review the types of organofluorine measurement, their separation from the sample matrix, and key parameters of the analytical instrument that affect sensitivity, reproducibility, and recovery with regards to PFAS analysis.

Chemistry↗

Considerations for using Privacy Preserving Machine Learning Techniques for Safeguards

In international nuclear safeguards, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is tasked with inspecting and verifying nuclear facilities and their activities. Data analytics and machine learning to support inspections require large amounts of data that nuclear facility operators may consider proprietary or sensitive, so the IAEA may not have full access. Allowing computation over private data without compromising its security therefore has value for safeguards inspections and analysis. Privacy-preserving machine learning (PPML) consists of security-focused techniques that allow data analytics and machine learning algorithms to run on sensitive data without revealing it. This includes ideas like homomorphic encryption (HE), secure multiparty computation (SMPC), and secure enclaves. HE allows algorithms and mathematical operations to be conducted directly on the encrypted data instead of first decrypting it. With SMPC, multiple entities collaboratively compute over distributed data such that no party is able to directly view any others’ original data. Secure enclaves allow computation to take place in a separate and heavily blocked-off section of a CPU. Techniques like these allow for several potential use cases in which the security of data is essential. With SMPC, machine learning models can be trained over the input data from multiple entities, resulting in a model that all users can benefit from without leaking the input data from any particular entity. With SMPC or a zero-knowledge proof (ZKP), an algorithm returning some single answer or truth value can be run on someone else’s data without ever needing to see that data, potentially allowing for verification or proof of some underlying question. HE can allow for outsourcing computation on data to a hostile or untrusted environment. Although most of the research in this field resides within the health and financial domains, tools from PPML may have similar applications in nuclear safeguards. Allowing the IAEA to compute over proprietary information, such as process models and raw sensor data using PPML techniques, provides the baseline for running complex analytics without needing direct unencrypted access to the underlying data, maintaining its privacy. Important limitations to consider for these techniques include the efficiency and level of security required. The security of HE and SMPC come at the cost of speed—the significant amount of overhead means that algorithms implemented in these protocols and encryption schemes are slower than when run on plaintext. Additionally, several important parameters determine what techniques or protocols are used based on the security requirements. SMPC protocols may need to be selected for resistance against a party that attempts to deviate from the protocol to distort the result or gain access to additional information, and a protocol secure against these attacks may further increase the overhead of the algorithm.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Impact on Cycle Efficiency of Small CHP Plants from Increasing Firing Temperature Enabled by AM of Turbine Blades

Combined Heat and Power (CHP) systems are gaining popularity because of their potential for high overall thermodynamic efficiency and increased need for distributed power generation. Most CHP systems include a gas turbine for electricity generation and a heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) for steam generation. The steam can be used to power a steam turbine for additional electricity generation or to drive rotating equipment, for space heating, for absorption chillers, etc. A CHP cycle configuration is often driven by the ‘principal’ utility for the facility that it services; steam or electricity. In either case, performance improvements in the gas turbine have the potential to increase the steam and power output from the cycle, which is a direct result of improvements in the gas turbine efficiency and power output. One possible opportunity to improve an existing gas turbine’s performance is to increase the firing temperature with improved turbine cooling and increased compression ratio.<br>In this study, the impact on CHP cycle performance from increasing the turbine firing temperature by 100 °C and improving the turbine blade cooling for a 6-MW scale gas turbine is estimated using an analytical cooled gas turbine model and a steam cycle model. A sensitivity analysis was performed to understand the impact of increasing the internal cooling effectiveness, thermal barrier coating performance and blade material upgrades on gas turbine and CHP cycle efficiency. The impacts of turbine blade cooling improvements were studied for three common CHP cycle configurations identified from the literature. Various definitions for CHP cycle efficiency from the literature are used in the comparisons. The results showed that a 100 °C increase in firing temperature can increase the gas turbine efficiency by 1 percentage point without improving cooling effectiveness and add 2 additional percentage points in efficiency by using advanced turbine blades with higher internal cooling efficiency. Studied engine upgrades showed potential for increasing the CHP cycle efficiency by 3 percentage points while increasing the steam generation rate by 8%.<br>

Uysal, Selcuk Can↗

Effects of fuel composition and octane sensitivity on polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon and soot emissions of gasoline–ethanol blend surrogates

The sooting propensity of a fuel is closely coupled with the fuel composition and chemistry. A detailed understanding of their effects is, therefore, needed to develop next-generation fuels which can minimize particulate emissions. With this overarching goal, the present work numerically investigates the effects of fuel composition and octane sensitivity (S) on polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) and soot emissions, for four-component gasoline-ethanol blend surrogates comprising isooctane, n-heptane, toluene, and ethanol. A partially-premixed counterflow flame is chosen as the canonical configuration for this study and simulations are performed using CHEMKIN-Pro-employing a kinetic mechanism developed by Park et al. (2017). In addition, a, detailed soot model based on the sectional method is used to capture the spatial characteristics of soot emissions. The kinetic mechanism and soot model are validated using available experimental data for various targets. A total of 86 TPRF-E mixtures, spanning a wide range of concentration of each component, and a wide range of S are analyzed. The effect of each non-paraffinic fuel component on the resultant PAH and soot emissions is investigated. PAH and soot emissions are found to vary significantly depending upon the blend composition. Additionally, based on the parametric sweeps, a regression analysis is carried out to identify global parameters that govern the formation of PAHs and soot. The analysis shows that both toluene content and S have a prominent effect on the formation of PAHs and soot, with toluene content having a stronger impact. Moreover, larger PAHs have higher dependency on toluene content and S. Furthermore, a detailed analysis is carried out to understand the physical and chemical phenomena associated with the observed trends of PAH and soot emissions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Minimum Detectable Intakes and Doses for Uranium Bioassays—Comparison between Alpha Spectrometry and ICP-MS

Naturally occurring uranium complicates monitoring for occupational exposures. There are several retroactive methods that can be used to monitor for occupational exposures, with benefits and drawbacks to each. Analysis of uranium in urine by mass spectrometry and alpha spectrometry is compared, and methods of determining an occupational exposure are presented. Furthermore, the minimum detectable concentrations from each analysis and a method for intake determination based on the analytical results are compared for various solubility types and mixtures. Mass spectrometry with radiochemical separation was found to be the most sensitive analysis for detecting occupational exposures to anthropogenic mixtures based on minimum detectable doses calculated from the proposed method for intake determination.

bioassay↗

Application of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Techniques for Informing Select Agent Designation and Decision Making

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Select Agent Program establishes a list of biological agents and toxins that potentially threaten public health and safety, the procedures governing the possession, utilization, and transfer of those agents, and training requirements for entities working with them. Every 2 years the Program reviews the select agent list, utilizing subject matter expert (SME) assessments to rank the agents. In this study, we explore the applicability of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques and logic tree analysis to support the CDC Select Agent Program biennial review process, applying the approach broadly to include non-select agents to evaluate its generality. We conducted a literature search for over 70 pathogens against 15 criteria for assessing public health and bioterrorism risk and documented the findings for archiving. The most prominent data gaps were found for aerosol stability and human infectious dose by inhalation and ingestion routes. Technical review of published data and associated scoring recommendations by pathogen-specific SMEs was found to be critical for accuracy, particularly for pathogens with very few known cases, or where proxy data (e.g., from animal models or similar organisms) were used to address data gaps. Analysis of results obtained from a two-dimensional plot of weighted scores for difficulty of attack (i.e., exposure and production criteria) vs. consequences of an attack (i.e., consequence and mitigation criteria) provided greater fidelity for understanding agent placement compared to a 1-to-n ranking and was used to define a region in the upper right-hand quadrant for identifying pathogens for consideration as select agents. A sensitivity analysis varied the numerical weights attributed to various properties of the pathogens to identify potential quantitative (x and y) thresholds for classifying select agents. The results indicate while there is some clustering of agent scores to suggest thresholds, there are still pathogens that score close to any threshold, suggesting that thresholding “by eye” may not be sufficient. The sensitivity analysis indicates quantitative thresholds are plausible, and there is good agreement of the analytical results with select agent designations. A second analytical approach that applied the data using a logic tree format to rule out pathogens for consideration as select agents arrived at similar conclusions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Visual HPC Workflows for the Analysis of System Dynamics Models

Visual analytics supported by high performance computing (HPC) accelerates and enhances the discovery, exploration, and analysis of causal patterns in complex system dynamics (SD) models. We present a suite of visualization-assisted ensemble-based techniques for hypothesis generation and testing, and for sensitivity analysis. By employing HPC to provide parallel, on-demand simulation of SD models, one can “steer” an ensemble of simulated scenarios in real time as one first formulates and then informally tests those hypotheses: this provides rapid feedback for analysts to refine their understanding of the causal relationships emergent from a model. Such understandings can be followed and augmented by rigorous application of statistical methods, namely global variance-based sensitivity analysis, Monte-Carlo filtering, adaptive regional sensitivity analysis, and self-organized maps: here timely computation relies on HPC, while effective presentation emphasizes high-dimensional multivariate data visualization. Immersive visualization in virtual 3D environments provides an excellent adjunct to the traditional 2D graphics typically used for SD models, as it generates an embodied understanding of model behavior and facilitates an active, collaborative critique of model structure and output. Finally, we summarize prospects for HPC-enabled visual analytics applied to SD modeling.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗