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At least 19 records

Enhanced Monitoring and Forecasting of South Asian Air Quality Episodes with Multi-Sensor Satellite Products and Dispersion Modeling

Air pollution and particulates represent a serious environmental, public health, and overarching societal concern in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region of south-central Asia, especially during the boreal winter and spring months. Frequent contributors to poor air quality of the region include dust and particulate matter transport from the Middle East region and western India, persistent nocturnal fog and smog during the stable dry monsoon months, and biomass burning during the pre-monsoon months of boreal spring. Nocturnal and multi-day persistent stable fog and smog events can occur during the stable conditions of the dry monsoon months that lead to hazardous visibility reductions (e.g., at major airports such as Delhi, India)and poor air quality, particularly in urban corridors.Our project goal is therefore to design and implement a robust air quality and chemistry observation and modeling system using the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) and the Weather Research and Forecasting coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) models. This system effectively assimilates aerosol and trace gas retrievals from geostationary and polar-orbiting satellites to advance the monitoring and prediction capabilities of air quality and visibility reductions throughout the HKH region. For this presentation, we highlight several[multi-spectral] geostationary satellite products and dispersion modeling capabilities being developed and implemented for improved situational awareness and forecasting of air quality episodes.Launched in December 2018, the Advanced Meteorological Imager (AMI) aboard the Geostationary-Korean Multi-Purpose Satellite-2A (GEO-KOMPSAT-2A, or GK2A) provides 16 channels of multi-spectral information similar to the U.S. GOES-16/17 satellites. Proven community recipes for generating multi-spectral Red-Green-Blue (RGB) composite products to detect specific meteorological phenomena are applied to the AMI data for the HKH region. We implemented four such RGB products consisting of truecolor with Rayleigh correction to aid in smoke detection; dust RGB for monitoring larger particulate matter; nighttime microphysics for fog/smog detection;and natural color fire RGB and the shortwave 3.8 micron channel for fire hot-spot detection.We additionally configured HYSPLIT for dust/sand dispersion and concentration forecasts over HKH. The HYSPLIT dispersion simulations are initially being conducted with two different methodologies: (1) dust/sand lofting based on initializing plume releases from visual inspection of the dust RGB imagery; and (2) dust/sand release and dispersion using the internal HYSPLIT algorithm that determines lofting from input wind speeds and prescribed land use. The goal is to develop a near real-time HYSPLIT modeling solution for routinely simulating the transport and dispersion of dust plumes across the HKH region. This presentation illustrates these products and capabilities for various use cases from the 2019 to 2021 period, highlighting a particularly unhealthy episode during late March 2021 across Nepal.

Remote Sensing↗

A review of methods for predicting air pollution dispersion

Air pollution modeling, and problem areas in air pollution dispersion modeling were surveyed. Emission source inventory, meteorological data, and turbulent diffusion are discussed in terms of developing a dispersion model. Existing mathematical models of urban air pollution, and highway and airport models are discussed along with their limitations. Recommendations for improving modeling capabilities are included.

Mathis, J. J., Jr.↗

Urban air pollution dispersion model

Three-dimensional integrated puff model simulates smoke plume dispersion processes and estimates pollutant concentration during periods of low wind speed. Applications for model are given.

Robert, J. J.↗

Modeling, Monitoring and Fault Diagnosis of Spacecraft Air Contaminants

Progress and results in the development of an integrated air quality modeling, monitoring, fault detection, and isolation system are presented. The focus was on development of distributed models of the air contaminants transport, the study of air quality monitoring techniques based on the model of transport process and on-line contaminant concentration measurements, and sensor placement. Different approaches to the modeling of spacecraft air contamination are discussed, and a three-dimensional distributed parameter air contaminant dispersion model applicable to both laminar and turbulent transport is proposed. A two-dimensional approximation of a full scale transport model is also proposed based on the spatial averaging of the three dimensional model over the least important space coordinate. A computer implementation of the transport model is considered and a detailed development of two- and three-dimensional models illustrated by contaminant transport simulation results is presented. The use of a well established Kalman filtering approach is suggested as a method for generating on-line contaminant concentration estimates based on both real time measurements and the model of contaminant transport process. It is shown that high computational requirements of the traditional Kalman filter can render difficult its real-time implementation for high-dimensional transport model and a novel implicit Kalman filtering algorithm is proposed which is shown to lead to an order of magnitude faster computer implementation in the case of air quality monitoring.

Ramirez, W. Fred↗

Evaluation of an efficient statistical transport model for turbulent droplet dispersion in dilute combusting sprays

Evaluation of an efficient statistical transport model for turbulent droplet dispersion is made for a dilute spray of methanol droplets injected into a turbulent, axisymmnetric methane-fuelled diffusion flame burning in stagnant air. In the dispersion model, a computational parcel representing a group of physical particles (droplets) is considered to have a normal probability density function (pdf) in space. The mean is determined by Lagrangian tracking through a sequence of stochastically generated turbulent eddies and the variance is evaluated from a statistical formulation based on the linearized particle equations of motion. The basic validity of this model is established through comparison with available experimental data and with theoretical predictions using a conventional stochastic direct modeling approach. The conclusion of the evaluation is that the proposed dispersion model compares favorably with experimental data and provides a valid technique for simulating turbulent combusting sprays with significant computational savings over conventional methods.

Litchford, Ron J.↗

Instantaneous and time-averaged dispersion and measurement models for estimation theory applications with elevated point source plumes

Estimation theory, which originated in guidance and control research, is applied to the analysis of air quality measurements and atmospheric dispersion models to provide reliable area-wide air quality estimates. A method for low dimensional modeling (in terms of the estimation state vector) of the instantaneous and time-average pollutant distributions is discussed. In particular, the fluctuating plume model of Gifford (1959) is extended to provide an expression for the instantaneous concentration due to an elevated point source. Individual models are also developed for all parameters in the instantaneous and the time-average plume equations, including the stochastic properties of the instantaneous fluctuating plume.

Diamante, J. M.↗

Southern Idaho Health & Air Quality II: Evaluating Atmospheric Mixing Height Estimations in the Western United States

Wildfires in the western United States have caused immense infrastructure damage and loss of human life in recent years. Wildfire smoke, which travels far from its original source, is also harmful to human health. Mixing height, which acts as a lid and prevents smoke from rising above a certain altitude in the lower troposphere, is a critical input in smoke dispersion and air quality models used by agencies that monitor wildfires. These models, coupled with forecaster expertise, are also used to decide when it is safe to execute a prescribed burn. The DEVELOPID team partnered with the National Weather Service (NWS) Fire Weather Program, Bureau of Land Management (BLM), National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC), and National Park Service (NPS) Fire Management Program Center (FMPC) to help improve reliability and confidence in mixing height estimations, and therefore the burn prescription decision-making process. To that end, the team developed a toolbox for measuring smoke-related aerosol mixing heights using Cloud-Aerosol LiDAR and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) Vertical Feature Mask granules. CALIPSO mixing heights and NWS estimations covaried significantly and positively. However, substantial disagreement between the methods stymied the team’s attempts to quantify systematic bias in a meaningful way. The relative error between the methods was especially large at low mixing heights, which suggests that this method of validation may only be suitable at higher altitudes.

Dean Berkowitz↗

A Global Analysis of Wildfire Smoke Injection Heights Derived from Space-Based Multi-Angle Imaging

We present an analysis of over 23,000 globally distributed wildfire smoke plume injection heights derived from Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) space-based, multi-angle stereo imaging. Both pixel-weighted and aerosol optical depth (AOD)-weighted results are given, stratified by region, biome, and month or season. This offers an observational resource for assessing first-principle plume-rise modelling, and can provide some constraints on smoke dispersion modelling for climate and air quality applications. The main limitation is that the satellite is in a sun-synchronous orbit, crossing the equator at about 10:30 a.m. local time on the day side. Overall, plumes occur preferentially during the northern mid-latitude burning season, and the vast majority inject smoke near-surface. However, the heavily forested regions of North and South America, and Africa produce the most frequent elevated plumes and the highest AOD values; some smoke is injected to altitudes well above 2 km in nearly all regions and biomes. Planetary boundary layer (PBL) versus free troposphere injection is a critical factor affecting smoke dispersion and environmental impact, and is affected by both the smoke injection height and the PBL height; an example assessment is made here, but constraining the PBL height for this application warrants further work.

Val Martin, Maria↗

Investigating the Spatial and Temporal Limitations for Remote Sensing of Wildfire Smoke Using Satellite and Airborne Imagers During FIREX_AQ

Starting from point sources, wildfire smoke is important in the global aerosol system. The ability to characterize smoke near-source is key to modeling smoke dispersion and predicting air quality. With hemispheric views and 10-min refresh, imagers in Geostationary (GEO) orbit have advantages monitoring smoke over once-per-day sensors in low-earth orbit (LEO). However, both can be inadequate in capturing the characteristics of smoke plumes close to their sources due to too-coarse spatial resolution (both detector and product resolution), too-sparse temporal resolution (from LEO sensors), and too-conservative masking. In addition to satellite observations, the Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments and Air Quality experiment offered sub-orbital enhanced-MODIS Airborne Simulator (eMAS) imagery at 50 m pixel resolution—including multiple eMAS flight tracks over individual fires in short time periods. It provided opportunity to explore smoke plume characterization at various spatial and temporal scales and quantify the limitations of space sensors for describing smoke magnitude near source as well as its temporal evolution. Here we applied modified aerosol algorithm to different imagers, relaxing its masking to estimate smoke's aerosol optical depth (AOD) as close as possible to its source. We found that GEO sensors with nominal 1 km spatial resolution can match the much finer resolution eMAS retrieved mean plume AOD, as long as the retrieval spatial resolution is finer than the width of the plumes. However, the plume's maximum AOD may be drastically underestimated by satellite products.

remote sensing↗

A simulation of air pollution model parameter estimation using data from a ground-based LIDAR remote sensor

One way to obtain estimates of the unknown parameters in a pollution dispersion model is to compare the model predictions with remotely sensed air quality data. A ground-based LIDAR sensor provides relative pollution concentration measurements as a function of space and time. The measured sensor data are compared with the dispersion model output through a numerical estimation procedure to yield parameter estimates which best fit the data. This overall process is tested in a computer simulation to study the effects of various measurement strategies. Such a simulation is useful prior to a field measurement exercise to maximize the information content in the collected data. Parametric studies of simulated data matched to a Gaussian plume dispersion model indicate the trade offs available between estimation accuracy and data acquisition strategy.

Kibler, J. F.↗

Review: Strategies for Using Satellite-Based Products in Modeling PM2.5 and Short-Term Pollution Episodes

Short-term air pollution episodes motivate improved understanding of the association between air pollution and acute morbidity and mortality episodes, and triggers required mitigation plans. A variety of methods have been employed to estimate exposure to air pollution episodes, including GIS-based dispersion models, interpolation between sparse monitoring sites, land-use regression models, optimization models, line- or area-dispersion plume models, and models using information from imaging satellites, often including land-use and meteorological variables. There has been increasing use of satellite-borne aerosol products for assessing short-term air quality events. They provide better spatial coverage, but currently at the price of low temporal coverage and rather crude spatial resolution. This brief review of using satellite data for modeling short-term air quality and pollution events. The review can be pursued as a practical guide for modeling air quality with satellite-based products, as it includes important questions that should be considered in both the study design as well as the model development stages. Progress in this field is detailed and includes published models and their use in environmental and health studies. Both current and future satellite-borne capabilities are covered. It also provides links to access and download relevant datasets and some R code for data processing and modeling.

Meytar Sorek-Hamer↗

Ensemble PM2.5 Forecasting during the 2018 Camp Fire Event Using the HYSPLIT Transport and Dispersion Model

Biomass burning releases a vast amount of aerosols into the atmosphere, often leading to severe air quality and health problems. Prediction of the air quality effects from biomass burning emissions is challenging due to uncertainties in fire emission, plume rise calculation, and other model inputs/processes. Ensemble forecasting is increasingly used to represent model uncertainties. In this paper, an ensemble forecast was conducted to predict surface PM2.5 during the 2018 California Camp Fire event using the NOAA HYSPLIT dispersion model at 0.1- degree horizontal resolution. Different combinations of four satellite-based fire emission datasets (FEER, FLAMBE, GBBEPx and GFAS), two plume rise schemes (Briggs and Sofiev), various meteorology inputs and model setup options were used to create the forecast ensemble, for a total of 112 experiments. The performance of each ensemble member and the ensemble mean were evaluated using ground-based observations, with four statistical metrics and an overall rank. The ensemble spread of the 112 members reached 1000 μg/m3, highlighting the large uncertainty in wildfire forecast. The ensemble mean displayed the best performance. Each fire emission product contributed to one or more members among the top ten performers, revealing the forecasting dependence on both the quality of fire emissions data and model representation of emission, transport and removal processes. In addition, an ensemble size reduction technique was introduced. With the help of this technique, the ensemble size was reduced from 112 to 28 members and still produced an ensemble mean that yielded comparable or even better performance to that of the full ensemble.

Biomass Burning↗

Comparisons Between the Distributions of Dust and Combustion Aerosols in MERRA-2, FLEXPART and CALIPSO and Implications for Deposition Freezing Over Wintertime Siberia

Aerosol distributions have a potentially large influence on climate-relevant cloud properties but can be difficult to observe over the Arctic given pervasive cloudiness, long polar nights, data paucity over remote regions, and periodic diamond dust events that satellites can misclassify as aerosol. We compared Arctic 2008–2015 mineral dust and combustion aerosol distributions from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) satellite, the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis products, and the FLEXible PARTicle (FLEXPART) dispersion model. Based on coincident, seasonal Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Arctic satellite meteorological data, diamond dust may occur up to 60 % of the time in winter, but it hardly ever occurs in summer. In its absence, MERRA-2 and FLEXPART each predict the vertical and horizontal distribution of large-scale patterns in combustion aerosols with relatively high confidence (Kendall tau rank correlation > 0.6), although a sizable amount of variability is still unaccounted for. They do the same for dust, except in conditions conducive to diamond dust formation where CALIPSO is likely misclassifying diamond dust as mineral dust and near the surface (< ∼ 2 km) where FLEXPART may be overpredicting local dust emissions. Comparisons to ground data suggest that MERRA-2 Arctic dust concentrations can be improved by the addition of local dust sources. All three products predicted that wintertime dust and combustion aerosols occur most frequently over the same Siberian regions where diamond dust is most common in the winter. This suggests that dust aerosol impacts on ice phase processes may be particularly high over Siberia, although further wintertime model validation with non-CALIPSO observations is needed. This assessment paves the way for applying the model-based aerosol simulations to a range of regional-scale Arctic aerosol–cloud interaction studies with greater confidence.

MERRA-2↗

The Impact of MISR-Derived Injection Height Initialization on Wildfire and Volcanic Plume Dispersion in the HYSPLIT Model

The dispersion of particles from wildfires, volcanic eruptions, dust storms, and other aerosol sources can affect air quality and other environmental factors downwind. Aerosol injection height is one source attribute that mediates downwind dispersion, as wind speed and direction can vary dramatically with elevation. Using plume heights derived from space-based, multi-angle imaging, we examine the impact of initializing plumes with satellite-measured vs. nominal (model-calculated or VAAC observations) injection height on the simulated dispersion of six large aerosol plumes. When there are significant differences in nominal vs. satellite-derived particle injection heights, or if one injection height is within the planetary boundary layer (PBL) and the other is above the PBL, differences in simulation results can arise. In the cases studied with significant nominal vs. satellite-derived injection height differences, the NOAA Air Resources Laboratory's Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model tends to represent plume evolution better if the injection height in the model is constrained by hyper-stereo satellite retrievals.

Plume heights↗

Work on power-plant (air) plumes involving remote sensing of SO2

Acquisition of air quality and concurrent meteorological data was used for dispersion model development and plant siting needs of the Maryland power plants. One of the major instruments in these studies was the Barringer correlation spectrometer, a remote sensor, using atmospherically scattered sunlight that was used to measure the total amount of SO2 in a cross section of the plume. Correlation spectrometer and its role in this measurement program are described.

White, C. L., Jr.↗

Modeling, Monitoring and Fault Diagnosis of Spacecraft Air Contaminants

Control of air contaminants is a crucial factor in the safety considerations of crewed space flight. Indoor air quality needs to be closely monitored during long range missions such as a Mars mission, and also on large complex space structures such as the International Space Station. This work mainly pertains to the detection and simulation of air contaminants in the space station, though much of the work is easily extended to buildings, and issues of ventilation systems. Here we propose a method with which to track the presence of contaminants using an accurate physical model, and also develop a robust procedure that would raise alarms when certain tolerance levels are exceeded. A part of this research concerns the modeling of air flow inside a spacecraft, and the consequent dispersal pattern of contaminants. Our objective is to also monitor the contaminants on-line, so we develop a state estimation procedure that makes use of the measurements from a sensor system and determines an optimal estimate of the contamination in the system as a function of time and space. The real-time optimal estimates in turn are used to detect faults in the system and also offer diagnoses as to their sources. This work is concerned with the monitoring of air contaminants aboard future generation spacecraft and seeks to satisfy NASA's requirements as outlined in their Strategic Plan document (Technology Development Requirements, 1996).

Ramirez, W. Fred↗

Buoyant plumes and wakes.

The problem of mixing of pollutants induced by vehicular motions is considered as an example of dispersion that is initially unaffected by atmospheric turbulence. Some models are discussed that have proven helpful in understanding certain aspects of the problem of dispersion of air pollutants in the atmosphere. However, the considerable variability of atmospheric flow, as compared with a laboratory flow, makes the application of these models, both experimental and theoretical, of limited scientific usefulness to the prediction of ambient air-pollutant levels.

Fay, J. A.↗