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At least 19 records

FEMA Asteroid Impact Tabletop Exercise Simulations

We describe the computational simulations and damage assessments that we provided in support of a tabletop exercise (TTX) at the request of NASA's Near-Earth Objects Program Office. The overall purpose of the exercise was to assess leadership reactions, information requirements, and emergency management responses to a hypothetical asteroid impact with Earth. The scripted exercise consisted of discovery, tracking, and characterization of a hypothetical asteroid; inclusive of mission planning, mitigation, response, impact to population, infrastructure and GDP, and explicit quantification of uncertainty. Participants at the meeting included representatives of NASA, Department of Defense, Department of State, Department of Homeland Security/Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), and the White House. The exercise took place at FEMA headquarters. Sandia's role was to assist the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in developing the impact scenario, to predict the physical effects of the impact, and to forecast the infrastructure and economic losses. We ran simulations using Sandia's CTH hydrocode to estimate physical effects on the ground, and to produce contour maps indicating damage assessments that could be used as input for the infrastructure and economic models. We used the FASTMap tool to provide estimates of infrastructure damage over the affected area, and the REAcct tool to estimate the potential economic severity expressed as changes to GDP (by nation, region, or sector) due to damage and short-term business interruptions.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Tarda and Tagish Lake: Samples from the same outer Solar System asteroid and implications for D- and P-type asteroids

Here, we report a comprehensive study of the ungrouped type 2 carbonaceous chondrite, Tarda, which fell in Morocco in 2020. This meteorite exhibits substantial similarities to Tagish Lake, Wisconsin Range 91600, and Meteorite Hills 00432, which are generally considered to have originated from a D-type asteroid(s). We constrain the compositions and petrologies of the materials present in a potential sample of a D-type asteroid by reporting the petrography, bulk chemical compositions, bulk H, C, N, Cr, and Ti isotopic compositions, reflectance spectra, and in situ chemical compositions of metals, sulfides, carbonates, and FeO-poor and FeO-rich chondrule silicates of Tarda. We also present new data for Tagish Lake. We then compare Tarda with the other Tagish Lake-like meteorites. Tarda and Tagish Lake appear to be from the same parent body, as demonstrated by their similar petrologies (modal abundances, chondrule sizes), mineral compositions, bulk chemical and isotopic compositions, and reflectance spectra. While the two other Tagish Lake-like meteorites, Wisconsin Range 91600 and Meteorite Hills 00432, show some affinities to Tagish Lake and Tarda, they also share similar characteristics to the Mighei-like carbonaceous (CM) chondrites, warranting further study. Similarities in reflectance spectra suggest that P-type asteroids 65 Cybele and 76 Freia are potential parent bodies of Tarda and the Tagish Lake-like meteorites, or at least have similar surface materials. Since upcoming spacecraft missions will spectrally survey D-type, P-type, and C-type Trojan asteroids (NASA's Lucy) and spectrally study and return samples from Mars' moon Phobos (JAXA's Martian Moons eXploration mission), which is spectrally similar to D-type asteroids, these meteorites are of substantial scientific interest. Furthermore, since Tarda closely spectrally matches P-type asteroids (but compositionally matches the D-type asteroid like Tagish Lake meteorite), P-type and D-type asteroids may represent fragments of the same or similar parent bodies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

THE UV/BLUE EFFECTS OF SPACE WEATHERING MANIFESTED IN S-COMPLEX ASTEROIDS. I. QUANTIFYING CHANGE WITH ASTEROID AGE

Evidence for the manifestation of space weathering in S-complex asteroids as a bluing of the UV/blue reflectance spectrum is extended using high resolution CCD reflectance spectra of 21 main-belt, 1 Mars-crossing, and 3 near-Earth asteroids covering a wavelength range of 320–620 nm. Demonstration of the transition of iron-bearing materials from volume scattering to surface (Fresnel) scattering is apparent as an abrupt downturn at wavelengths just short of 400 nm in reflectance spectra of fresh asteroid surfaces. The weathering away of this downturn is demonstrated by its absence in reflectance spectra of mature S-complex asteroids, consistent with an increase in npFe{sup 0} on the material's surface. Modeling of the effects of the addition of small amounts of npFe{sup 0} to particles from both a hypothetical mineral and a terrestrial basalt shows that evidence of the addition of 0.0001% npFe{sup 0} affects the reflectance at UV/blue wavelengths, while the addition of 0.01% is required to see the visible/near-infrared reddening and diminution of absorption features. Thus, the UV/blue reflectance characteristics allow earlier detection of the onset of space weathering effects. Combining UV/blue spectral characteristics of asteroids and ordinary chondrite meteorites with estimated ages of the young Datura family, we establish a method of dating asteroid surface ages during the early stages of space weathering. We demonstrate by dating the surface of NEA 163249 2002 GT to be 109 (±18) to 128 (±10) Kyr.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

THE PHYSICAL CHARACTERIZATION OF THE POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS ASTEROID 2004 BL86: A FRAGMENT OF A DIFFERENTIATED ASTEROID

The physical characterization of potentially hazardous asteroids (PHAs) is important for impact hazard assessment and evaluating mitigation options. Close flybys of PHAs provide an opportunity to study their surface photometric and spectral properties that enable the identification of their source regions in the main asteroid belt. We observed PHA (357439) 2004 BL86 during a close flyby of the Earth at a distance of 1.2 million km (0.0080 AU) on 2015 January 26, with an array of ground-based telescopes to constrain its photometric and spectral properties. Lightcurve observations showed that the asteroid was a binary and subsequent radar observations confirmed the binary nature and gave a primary diameter of 300 m and a secondary diameter of 50–100 m. Our photometric observations were used to derive the phase curve of 2004 BL86 in the V-band. Two different photometric functions were fitted to this phase curve, the IAU H–G model and the Shevchenko model. From the fit of the H–G function we obtained an absolute magnitude of H = 19.51 ± 0.02 and a slope parameter of G = 0.34 ± 0.02. The Shevchenko function yielded an absolute magnitude of H = 19.03 ± 0.07 and a phase coefficient b = 0.0225 ± 0.0006. The phase coefficient was used to calculate the geometric albedo (Ag) using the relationship found by Belskaya and Schevchenko, obtaining a value of Ag = 40% ± 8% in the V-band. With the geometric albedo and the absolute magnitudes derived from the H–G and the Shevchenko functions we calculated the diameter (D) of 2004 BL86, obtaining D = 263 ± 26 and D = 328 ± 35 m, respectively. 2004 BL86 spectral band parameters and pyroxene chemistry are consistent with non-cumulate eucrite meteorites. A majority of these meteorites are derived from Vesta and are analogous with surface lava flows on a differentiated parent body. A non-diagnostic spectral curve match using the Modeling for Asteroids tool yielded a best-match with non-cumulate eucrite Bereba. Three other near-Earth asteroids (1993 VW, 1998 KK17, and 2000 XH44) that were observed by Burbine et al. also have spectral properties similar to 2004 BL86. The presence of eucrites with anomalous oxygen isotope ratios compared to the howardites, eucrites, and diogenites meteorites from Vesta suggests the possible presence of multiple differentiated bodies in the inner main belt or the contamination of Vesta’s surface with exogenic material. The spectral properties of both anomalous and Vestan eucrites are degenerate, making it difficult to identify the parent bodies of anomalous eucrites in the main belt and the NEO population using remote sensing. This makes it difficult to link 2004 BL86 directly to Vesta, although the Vesta family is the largest contributor of V-types to near-Earth space.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA analysis of space mission options for the 2025 planetary defense conference hypothetical asteroid impact threat scenario

The 2025 Planetary Defense Conference (PDC) hypothetical asteroid impact threat exercise is being conducted in coordination with the United Nations-endorsed Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG), exercising SMPAG's processes for assessing space mission options and communicating to decision makers. Here, in this paper, we describe the work performed by our NASA-led team and present the results we contributed to the SMPAG effort for the exercise. Our NASA-led team assessed mission options for asteroid reconnaissance (flyby and rendezvous), deflection, and robust disruption using several viable techniques: kinetic impactors, ion beam deflection, and nuclear explosive devices. Our simulations and analyses considered how much change-in-velocity an asteroid can tolerate before fragmentation onset, and we worked towards establishing requirements for robustly disrupting an asteroid. Heuristics informed by the simulation results are incorporated into optimization of deflection and disruption mission campaign options. Finally, we make some observations about useful generalizations from these results with potential applicability to any planetary defense scenario.

Asteroid deflection↗

Monitoring of asteroids in cometary orbits and activated asteroids through archival images and new observations

Transitional objects are minor bodies that share some characteristics with asteroids and others with comets. These objects include asteroids in cometary orbits (ACOs), which behave dynamically like comets, but lack observed activity, while activated asteroids (AAs) follow typical asteroidal orbits, but have shown dust ejections. The monitoring of a set of these objects carried out in 2015 and 2016 is continued using archival images from various observatories and new data from the IMPACTON telescope in Brazil. Two techniques were applied to detect activity: (i) surface brightness profiles were compared with those of field stars to identify widening, and (ii) the magnitudes reported in the Minor Planet Center, combined with our observations, were reduced and analyzed to identify abrupt brightness increases as a function of heliocentric distance. We analyzed the surface brightness profiles of 133 ACOs and 7 AAs. To study the reduced magnitude, we obtained data from the 705 ACOs that were known at the time of the analysis. Together with the data from our previous work, our analysis covered 23% of the total known ACOs; 8 deviated slightly in the surface brightness profile, 6 brightened in the reduced magnitude, and one object is in common in both samples. A very low percentage of objects might show activity (4% of the sample with brightness profiles and <1% in the reduced magnitudes). These results would rule out a slow transition from active to inert. Regarding AAs, 4 showed activity, and 3 of them matched previously reported periods, while the data we analyzed for P/2015 X 6 were obtained 19 days before the first existing activity report. The activity episodes of these objects are very restricted in time and do not always occur in the same region of the orbit.

asteroids: general↗

Physical properties of asteroids in comet-like orbits in infrared asteroid survey catalogs

We investigated the population of asteroids in comet-like orbits using available asteroid size and albedo catalogs of data taken with the Infrared Astronomical Satellite, AKARI, and the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer on the basis of their orbital properties (i.e., the Tisserand parameter with respect to Jupiter, T{sub J}, and the aphelion distance, Q). We found that (1) there are 123 asteroids in comet-like orbits by our criteria (i.e., Q > 4.5 AU and T{sub J} < 3), (2) 80% of them have low albedo, p{sub v} < 0.1, consistent with comet nuclei, (3) the low-albedo objects among them have a size distribution shallower than that of active comet nuclei, that is, the power index of the cumulative size distribution is around 1.1, and (4) unexpectedly, a considerable number (i.e., 25 by our criteria) of asteroids in comet-like orbits have high albedo, p{sub v} > 0.1. We noticed that such high-albedo objects mostly consist of small (D < 3 km) bodies distributed in near-Earth space (with perihelion distance of q < 1.3 AU). We suggest that such high-albedo, small objects were susceptible to the Yarkovsky effect and drifted into comet-like orbits via chaotic resonances with planets.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

COMPOSITION OF POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS ASTEROID (214869) 2007 PA8: AN H CHONDRITE FROM THE OUTER ASTEROID BELT

Potentially hazardous asteroids (PHAs) represent a unique opportunity for physical characterization during their close approaches to Earth. The proximity of these asteroids makes them accessible for sample-return and manned missions, but could also represent a risk for life on Earth in the event of collision. Therefore, a detailed mineralogical analysis is a key component in planning future exploration missions and developing appropriate mitigation strategies. In this study we present near-infrared spectra (∼0.7–2.55 μm) of PHA (214869) 2007 PA8 obtained with the NASA Infrared Telescope Facility during its close approach to Earth on 2012 November. The mineralogical analysis of this asteroid revealed a surface composition consistent with H ordinary chondrites. In particular, we found that the olivine and pyroxene chemistries of 2007 PA8 are Fa{sub 18}(Fo{sub 82}) and Fs{sub 16}, respectively. The olivine–pyroxene abundance ratio was estimated to be 47%. This low olivine abundance and the measured band parameters, close to the H4 and H5 chondrites, suggest that the parent body of 2007 PA8 experienced thermal metamorphism before being catastrophically disrupted. Based on the compositional affinity, proximity to the J5:2 resonance, and estimated flux of resonant objects we determined that the Koronis family is the most likely source region for 2007 PA8.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

PHYSICAL CHARACTERIZATION OF ∼2 m DIAMETER NEAR-EARTH ASTEROID 2015 TC25: A POSSIBLE BOULDER FROM E-TYPE ASTEROID (44) NYSA

Small near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) (<20 m) are interesting, because they are progenitors for meteorites in our terrestrial collection. The physical characteristics of these small NEAs are crucial to our understanding of the effectiveness of our atmosphere in filtering low-strength impactors. In the past, the characterization of small NEAs has been a challenge, because of the difficulty in detecting them prior to close Earth flyby. In this study, we physically characterized the 2 m diameter NEA 2015 TC25 using ground-based optical, near-infrared and radar assets during a close flyby of the Earth (distance 128,000 km) in 2015 October 12. Our observations suggest that its surface composition is similar to aubrites, a rare class of high-albedo differentiated meteorites. Aubrites make up only 0.14% of all known meteorites in our terrestrial meteorite collection. 2015 TC25 is also a very fast rotator with a period of 133 ± 6 s. We combined the spectral and dynamical properties of 2015 TC25 and found the best candidate source body in the inner main belt to be the 70 km diameter E-type asteroid (44) Nysa. We attribute the difference in spectral slope between the two objects to the lack of regolith on the surface of 2015 TC25. Using the albedo of E-type asteroids (50%–60%) we refine the diameter of 2015 TC25 to 2 m, making it one of the smallest NEAs ever to be characterized.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Anisotropic Ejection from Active Asteroid P/2010 A2: An Implication of Impact Shattering on an Asteroid

We revisited a mass ejection phenomenon that occurred in asteroid P/2010 A2 in terms of the dynamical properties of the dust particles and large fragments. We constructed a model assuming anisotropic ejection within a solid cone-shaped jet and succeeded in reproducing the time-variant features in archival observational images over ∼3 years from 2010 January to 2012 October. We assumed that the dust particles and fragments were ejected in the same direction from a point where no object had been detected in any observations, and the anisotropic model explains all of the observations including (i) the unique dust cloud morphology, (ii) the trail surface brightness, and (iii) the motions of the fragments. Our results suggest that the original body was shattered by an impact with specific energy Q{sup ∗}≲350 J kg{sup −1}, and remnants of slow antipodal ejecta (i.e., anisotropic ejection in our model) were observed as P/2010 A2. The observed quantities are consistent with those obtained through laboratory impact experiments, supporting the idea that the P/2010 A2 event is the first evidence of the impact shattering that occurred in the present main asteroid belt.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Predicting Asteroid Material Properties from a DART-like Kinetic Impact

Abstract NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission is the first full-scale test of the kinetic impactor method for asteroid deflection, in which a spacecraft intentionally impacts an asteroid to change its trajectory. DART represents an important first step for planetary defense technology demonstration, providing a realistic assessment of the effectiveness of the kinetic impact approach on a near-Earth asteroid. The momentum imparted to the asteroid is transferred from the impacting spacecraft and enhanced by the momentum of material ejected from the impact site. However, the magnitude of the ejecta contribution is dependent on the material properties of the target. These properties, such as strength and shear modulus, are unknown for the DART target asteroid, Dimorphos, as well as most asteroids since such properties are difficult to characterize remotely. This study examines how hydrocode simulations can be used to estimate material properties from information available post-impact, specifically the asteroid size and shape, the velocity and properties of the impacting spacecraft, and the final velocity change imparted to the asteroid. Across >300 three-dimensional simulations varying seven material parameters describing the asteroid, we found many combinations of properties could reproduce a particular asteroid velocity. Additional observations, such as asteroid mass or crater size, are required to further constrain properties like asteroid strength or outcomes like the momentum enhancement provided by impact ejecta. Our results demonstrate the vital importance of having as much knowledge as possible prior to an impact mission, with key material parameters being the asteroid’s mass, porosity, strength, and elastic properties.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Asteroid spin-rate study using the intermediate palomar transient factory

Two dedicated asteroid rotation-period surveys have been carried out in the R band with ∼20 minute cadence using the intermediate Palomar Transient Factory (iPTF) during 2014 January 6–9 and February 20–23. The total survey area covered 174 deg{sup 2} in the ecliptic plane. Reliable rotation periods for 1438 asteroids are obtained from a larger data set of 6551 mostly main-belt asteroids, each with ⩾10 detections. Analysis of 1751, PTF-based, reliable rotation periods clearly shows the spin barrier at ∼2 hr for rubble-pile asteroids. We found a new large super-fast rotator, 2005 UW163, and another five candidates as well. For asteroids of 3<D<15 km, our spin-rate distribution shows a number decrease along with frequency after 5 rev day{sup −1}, which is consistent with the results of the Asteroid Light Curve Database. The discrepancy between our work and that of Pravec et al. (update 2014 April 20) comes mainly from asteroids with Δm<0.2 mag, which could be the result of different survey strategies. For asteroids with D<3 km, we see a significant number drop at f = 6 rev day{sup −1}. The relatively short YORP effect timescale for small asteroids could have spun up those elongated objects to reach their spin-rate limit resulting in breakup to create such a number deficiency. We also see that the C-type asteroids show a smaller spin-rate limit than the S-type, which agrees with the general impression that C-type asteroids have a lower bulk density than S-type asteroids.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Time and Phase Resolved Optical Spectra of Potentially Hazardous Asteroid 2014 JO25

The asteroid 2014 JO25, considered to be potentially hazardous by the Minor Planet Center, was spectroscopically followed during its close-Earth encounter on 2017 April 19 and 20. The spectra of the asteroid were taken with the low-resolution spectrograph (LISA), mounted on the 1.2 m telescope at the Mount Abu Infrared Observatory, India. Coming from a region close to the Hungaria population of asteroids, this asteroid follows a comet-like orbit with a relatively high inclination and large eccentricity. Hence, we carried out optical spectroscopic observations of the asteroid to look for comet-like molecular emissions or outbursts. However, the asteroid showed a featureless spectrum, devoid of any comet-like features. The light curve of the asteroid was analyzed using V-band magnitudes derived from the spectra and the most likely solution for the rotation of the asteroid was obtained. The absolute magnitude H and the slope parameter G were determined for the asteroid in the V filter band using the IAU accepted standard two-parameter H–G model. A peculiar, rarely found result from these observations is its phase bluing trend. The relative B–V color index seems to decrease with increasing phase angle, which indicates a phase bluing trend. Such trends have seldom been reported in the literature. However, phase reddening in asteroids is very common. The asymmetry parameter g and the single-scattering albedo w were estimated for the asteroid by fitting the Hapke phase function to the observed data. The asteroid shows a relatively large value for the single-scattering albedo and a highly back-scattering surface.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Deflection by kinetic impact: Sensitivity to asteroid properties

Impacting an asteroid with a spacecraft traveling at high speed delivers an impulsive change in velocity to the body. In certain circumstances, this strategy could be used to deflect a hazardous asteroid, moving its orbital path off of an Earth-impacting course. However, the efficacy of momentum delivery to asteroids by hypervelocity impact is sensitive to both the impact conditions (particularly velocity) and specific characteristics of the target asteroid. We numerically model asteroid response to kinetic impactors under a wide range of initial conditions, using an Adaptive Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics code. Impact velocities spanning 1–30 km/s were investigated, yielding, for a particular set of assumptions about the modeled target material, a power-law dependence consistent with a velocity-scaling exponent of μ = 0.44. Target characteristics including equation of state, strength model, porosity, rotational state, and shape were varied, and corresponding changes in asteroid response were documented. Moreover, the kinetic-impact momentum-multiplication factor, β, decreases with increasing asteroid cohesion and increasing porosity. Although increased porosity lowers β, larger porosities result in greater deflection velocities, as a consequence of reduced target masses for asteroids of fixed size. Porosity also lowers disruption risk for kinetic impacts near the threshold of disruption. Including fast (P = 2.5 h) and very fast (P = 100 s) rotation did not significantly alter β but did affect the risk of disruption by the impact event. Asteroid shape is found to influence the efficiency of momentum delivery, as local slope conditions can change the orientation of the crater ejecta momentum vector. Our results emphasize the need for asteroid characterization studies to bracket the range of target conditions expected at near-Earth asteroids while also highlighting some of the principal uncertainties associated with the kinetic-impact deflection strategy.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Simultaneous Mass Determination for Gravitationally Coupled Asteroids

The conventional least-squares asteroid mass determination algorithm allows us to solve for the mass of a large subject asteroid that is perturbing the trajectory of a smaller test asteroid. However, this algorithm is necessarily a first approximation, ignoring the possibility that the subject asteroid may itself be perturbed by the test asteroid, or that the encounter’s precise geometry may be entangled with encounters involving other asteroids. After reviewing the conventional algorithm, we use it to calculate the masses of 30 main-belt asteroids. Compared to our previous results, we find new mass estimates for eight asteroids (11 Parthenope, 27 Euterpe, 51 Neimausa, 76 Freia, 121 Hermione, 324 Bamberga, 476 Hedwig, and 532 Herculina) and significantly more precise estimates for six others (2 Pallas, 3 Juno, 4 Vesta, 9 Metis, 16 Psyche, and 88 Thisbe). However, we also find that the conventional algorithm yields questionable results in several gravitationally coupled cases. To address such cases, we describe a new algorithm that allows the epoch state vectors of the subject asteroids to be included as solve-for parameters, allowing for the simultaneous solution of the masses and epoch state vectors of multiple subject and test asteroids. We then apply this algorithm to the same 30 main-belt asteroids and conclude that mass determinations resulting from current and future high-precision astrometric sources (such as Gaia ) should conduct a thorough search for possible gravitational couplings and account for their effects.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Main belt asteroids taxonomical information from dark energy survey data

While proper orbital elements are currently available for more than 1 million asteroids, taxonomical information is still lagging behind. Surveys like SDSS-MOC4 provided preliminary information for more than 100 000 objects, but many asteroids still lack even a basic taxonomy. In this study, we use Dark Energy Survey (DES) data to provide new information on asteroid physical properties. By cross-correlating the new DES data base with other data bases, we investigate how asteroid taxonomy is reflected in DES data. While the resolution of DES data is not sufficient to distinguish between different asteroid taxonomies within the complexes, except for V-type objects, it can provide information on whether an asteroid belongs to the C- or S-complex. Here, machine learning methods optimized through the use of genetic algorithms were used to predict the labels of more than 68 000 asteroids with no prior taxonomic information. Using a high-quality, limited set of asteroids with data on gri slopes and i − z colours, we detected 409 new possible V-type asteroids. Their orbital distribution is highly consistent with that of other known V-type objects.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗