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UNDERSTANDING THE SEMI-PROBABILISTIC APPROACHES IN STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY USED TO SET DESIGN RELIABILITY TARGETS FOR GRAPHITE COMPONENTS USING ASME BPVC METHODS

Graphite is a quasi-brittle material, resulting in random variability in tensile strength distributions. To account for the random variability in strength, HHA-3000 of the ASME BPVC provides two semi-probabilistic methods for qualifying nuclear graphite components in the design stage, the simplified and full assessments. The full and simplified assessments apply statistical methods to engineering-based design problems. This is often referred to as reliability-based design. Reliability-based design (RBD) is a method to develop reliable designs by accounting for uncertainties and result in small chances of failure when also considering safety factors. RBDs provide reliability targets using semi-probabilistic approaches. RBD is implemented in ASME BPVC HHA-3000 for nuclear graphite components, but is not specific to that application. There has been much confusion around the methods implemented in ASME BPVC HHA-3000 for qualifying nuclear graphite components. To address the confusion, this paper takes a hierarchical approach. First, the general RBD framework is presented. Then, the semi-probabilistic methods and the underlying assumptions implemented in the assessments are presented. The semi-probabilistic methods are separated from the engineering modifications that have been made to the assessments. After building the framework and underlying assumptions, the specific methods in the full and simplified assessments are explained in three steps: inputs, methods, outputs. The methods are applied to an H-451 reflector block. Tensile strength properties for other graphite grades are provided.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS

ECAR-6564 Rev 1 MARVEL Project Primary Coolant System ASME BPVC Section III Division 5 Design by Analysis

This report demonstrates that the MARVEL Reactor Primary Coolant Boundary (herein referred to as the Primary Coolant System, or PCS) is designed to meet ASME BPVC Section III Division 5 elevated temperature service design-by-analysis criteria. The analysis approach that delineates division of responsibilities to meet project objectives is discussed herein. In short, Design and Service Level A, B, and C code calculations are detailed in ECAR-6580 [9] for the majority of the PCS with complex geometry, while the Lower Downcomers, Bottom Head, and Reactor Core Barrel are analyzed in ANL-24/36. Service Level D code calculations are detailed in this document.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN

SPC-70731 Rev 0 MARVEL Reactor Project ASME BPVC Section III Division 5 Design Specification

This specification establishes the requirements for the design of the MARVEL Primary Coolant System (PCS) Boundary, Guard Vessel System (GVS) Boundary, Core Support Structure (CSS), and Internal Heat Exchanger (IHX) Liner to provide a complete basis for ASME BPVC Section III Division 5 construction. All information in this section is generic and applicable to all metallic components unless otherwise specified.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN

ASME Code Development: Design Rules

ASME Code Development: Design Rules, ASME BPVC, and ASME BPVC HHA-3000, Design Task Group Papers, Presentations, and Memorandums, and records.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS

Alloy 625 Qualification Pathway for ASME Section III Division 5 Class A construction

The American Society of Mechanical Engineers Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code Section III Division 5 provides construction and inspection rules to ensure the safety of nuclear components operating at elevated temperatures, defined as those operating above 700°F (370°C) or 800°F (425°C), depending on the material type. At present, there are six materials approved for Class A (high safety significance) component construction under ASME BPVC Section III Division 5. Out of these six materials, five materials are steels or iron-based alloys and one material, Alloy 617, is a nickel alloy. Nickel alloys are stronger than steels; however, Alloy 617 consists of 10-15% cobalt, and activation is a concern under irradiation. Therefore, there is a need to qualify new nickel alloy with lower cobalt content. Alloy 625 is one candidate which has similar mechanical properties at elevated temperature compared to Alloy 617 and has a maximum of 1% cobalt. Although Alloy 625 material properties have been developed in the past to support allowable stress development under ASME Section II, new test results would be needed to qualify this material for elevated temperature component construction under ASME Section III Division 5. The purpose of this report is to describe a path towards developing a Nuclear Code Case to qualify Alloy 625 (UNS N06625; Grade 1 and Grade 2) for elevated temperature nuclear use in accordance with the ASME BPVC rules. This report reviews the existing database on Alloy 625, presents proposed test campaign, and discusses potential paths for accelerating the accelerated material qualification process.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE

ASME Design Code Rule Changes for Nuclear Graphite

The American Society of Mechanical Engineers Boiler Pressure and Vessel Code (ASME BPVC) Section III, Division 5, Article HHA-3000 outlines graphite core component and graphite core assembly design guidelines. Graphite core components are defined as ?components manufactured from graphite that are installed to form a graphite core assembly within the reactor pressure vessel of a high temperature, graphite moderated fission reactor.? (p. 413) Graphites? inherent defect distributions do not allow for deterministic material reliability. Rather, graphite has variable strength distributions which change by grade. Article HHA-3000 outlines two semi-probabilistic methods, the full and simplified assessments, which set design load limit targets for each of three component structural reliability classes. The Design Task Group was officially recognized as a specialized task group within ASME November of 2023, though we?ve been collaborating since 2022. The purpose of the Design Task Group is to correct, clarify, and make HHA-3000 function as intended. The Design Task Group will sunset once we?ve achieved our objectives. The Design Task Group was specifically told to not write new Code. While there may be more precise and more accurate methods to determine reliability targets, the current methods are conservative, relatively simple to implement, and have thus far been considered satisfactory for setting design reliability targets. Much of the ground-work to write proposal files and background documents for records to make the changes needed to achieve our objective have been completed. The Design Task Group has documented much of their work through papers, presentations, and memorandums. Three memorandums in which INL team members had substantial contributions are found in the Appendices: FEA Modeling for the Baseline Program, Evaluating the Effects on Margin of Updating the Threshold and Shape Parameters in the Full Assessment, and Interpretations of the Full and Simplified Assessments in ASME BPVC. Most of the on-going work to achieve the Design Task Group?s objective will be addressing comments on existing records and moving records through the balloting process. The Design Task Group met bi-weekly mostly through the end of FY2023. Since February 2024, the Design Task Group has mostly been completed with solving and documenting the technical issues associated with the assessments. Unless new tasks are identified, the remaining work of the Design Task Group will be political and editorial.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Relating Measured Component Damage to Assessed Component Reliability in Reliability Integrity Management (RIM)

There is currently no widely agreed detailed general method for licensing a novel plant incorporating novel materials (or materials being deployed in novel environments); in many such situations, there are no directly applicable engineering code cases for decision-makers (including regulators) to rely on. It may be possible to develop an approach to licensing such a plant that is based on the Reliability and Integrity Management (RIM) approach delineated in ASME BPVC Section XI Division 2. NRC Regulatory Guide 1.246, Rev.0, endorses, with conditions, the subject portion of the ASME Code. But that portion of the ASME code is written at a very high level, and there are fundamental technical challenges associated with applying it literally to licensing a real plant. In the RIM approach, applicants need to do the following (among other things): • Allocate target reliabilities to structures, systems, and components (SSCs) that collectively support the top-level plant safety and availability objectives; • Understand failure modes of those SSCs, and the degradation mechanisms that could lead to those failure modes; • Develop and propose a program of surveillances that will identify degradation prior to failure of SSCs; • Provide a means of reporting results, taking actions for anomalous or undesirable conditions, and give the regulator assurance of continued safe operations. Applying RIM in a specific case will call for advances in the state of practice of relating physical observables to functional reliability of certain component types. Except where a given level of damage corresponds to a failed (or nearly failed) state, it is not practical to establish a precise quantitative relationship between physical observables and reliability. This paper focuses on managing risk of passive component failures based on observable damage parameters. A simple approach to cumulative damage modeling will be illustrated with a view to possible use in RIM applications.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS

ACCELERATED DEPLOYMENT OF NOVEL MATERIALS BASED ON RELIABILITY INTEGRITY MANAGEMENT USING CUMULATIVE DAMAGE MODELING

There is currently no widely agreed, detailed general method for licensing a novel plant incorporating novel materials (or materials being deployed in novel environments); in many such situations, there are no directly applicable engineering code cases for decision-makers (including regulators) to rely on. This paper discusses a framework for solving this problem that is based on the Reliability and Integrity Management (RIM) approach delineated in ASME BPVC Section XI Division 2. NRC Regulatory Guide 1.246, Rev. 0, endorses, with conditions, the subject portion of the 2019 ASME Code. The proposed framework is meant to support development of a licensing case by addressing certain remaining technical challenges. The framework discussed here is compatible with the Licensing Modernization Project, but applying it in a specific case will call for advances in the state of practice, if not the state of the art. The RIM approach calls for applicants to (a) allocate reliability targets to plant structures, systems, and components (SSCs), (b) show that they are able to relate the currently observed physical condition of each SSC in the program to its failure probability well enough to determine whether the target reliability allocations are being satisfied, allowing for uncertainty related to the novelty of the materials/designs/operating environments, and (c) be able to demonstrate that the proposed program of surveillances will reliably detect unacceptable degradation of an SSC before SSC failure occurs. A modeling approach potentially applicable to item (b), based on cumulative damage modeling rather than failure rates, is briefly illustrated.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS

ECAR-8446 Rev 0 MARVEL BPVC Section III Division 5 HBB Fatigue Acceptance Tests

The objective of this analysis is to evaluate the fatigue and creep behavior of 316 SS materials used in the Primary Coolant System (PCS) and Guard Vessel System (GVS) for the first two years of MARVEL reactor operation. The analysis follows the requirements set forth in ASME BPVC Section III, Division 5, HBB-2800, which mandates a fatigue test if operational conditions exceed allowable thresholds. By determining whether the materials meet the HBB-T-1324(a) and HBB-T-1324(b) criteria, this evaluation establishes whether a fatigue test is necessary, as well as the maximum allowable operational hours and temperatures before fatigue testing would be required. The deliverables of this analysis include calculations validating compliance with fatigue acceptance criteria, determination of maximum operational limits for the two-year period, and identification of conditions under which a fatigue test would be necessary. This ensures that the PCS and GVS can operate safely without premature material degradation and align with the design life requirements outlined in SPC-70731. Additionally, this evaluation provides conservative estimates for Service Level B occurrences and their impact on allowable Service Level A hours and temperatures, offering guidance for future operational assessments and potential life extensions beyond the initial two-year period.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN

ECAR-6574 Rev 1 MARVEL Guard Vessel System FEA and ASME Analysis

This ECAR encompasses the design-by-equation requirements in ASME BPVC Section III Division 5 Subsection HCB, in addition to the service level and design-by-analysis requirements of Subsection HBB, as they apply to the Guard Vessel.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN

Evaluation of thermal energy storage for central receiver concentrating solar power plants under charging cycles through structural assessment

Electricity production by concentrated solar power (CSP) systems has stood out among energy transition alternatives due to their large generation capacity (between 30 MW and 400 MW) and high capacity factor (80%) when incorporating thermal storage systems (TES). Although TES tanks in operation worldwide are made of austenitic steels with remarkable mechanical and anticorrosive properties, operational failures have been reported due to low-cycle fatigue, creep, and the abrupt release of residual stresses generated during tank manufacturing. A critical operation for salt tanks is the initial daily charging operation, given the low fluid level and the thermal gradients between the inventory and the salt entering the tank. This study presents a structural simulation of a 39.6 m-diameter molten salt tank for central receiver CSP plants, accounting for temperature and pressure variations during charging and different sparger ring inlet configurations. The initial pre-stressed condition of the floor, resulting from the manufacture of welded plates, is used as a boundary condition. The fatigue and creep life analyses were performed in accordance with the ASME BPVC and API standards. It was found that the tank's floor is in a less favourable mechanical condition than the wall, due to its initial manufacturing condition and the maximum temperature differences during charging. A critical zone was identified in an area affected by residual stress on the floor and under the sparger ring. The baseline sparger ring configuration, with 52 2-inch-diameter orifices and a flow direction of 90 degrees , results in an average floor stress of approximately 25 MPa and creep damage after 1.2 years of tank operation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY

Detailed Design and Cost Estimation of a 300 MWe Oxy-Fuel sCO2 Turbine

The detailed design of a 300 MWe, utility scale oxy-fuel turbine has been completed for purposed operation in the sCO2 direct fired Allam-Fetvedt cycle, targeting near-zero emissions and a 50% LHV system efficiency. The turbine and its supporting plant aim to offer a lower levelized cost of energy than a natural gas combined cycle plant employing carbon capture. The oxy-fuel turbine conditions include an inlet temperature of 1150°C and inlet pressure of 305 bar, representing temperatures near that of a gas turbine simultaneously with pressures near an ultra-supercritical steam turbine. The combustor housing and turbine designs were completed according to the ASME BPVC; the turbine case specifically incorporates a multi-body design with inner high-pressure barrel case and low-pressure (30 bar) horizontally split outer case of low-chromium steel material. Lateral rotordynamic evaluation demonstrated acceptable vibration response for a range of imbalance conditions per API standards. The cooling flow required in the six-stage turbine flowpath for 30,000 hr. blade and stator lifetime is predicted through thermal and structural modeling of the first stage. The provided cost estimate of the turbine is formed through a combination of scaled up-costs from procured 10 MWe scale sCO2 turbomachinery hardware, and vendor provided budgetary quotes of larger components including the turbine case requiring casting, welding, and final machining processes. The performance and cost estimation of the oxy-fuel turbine predicted for the completed detailed design provides important information towards future development needs for market penetration of utility scale direct fired sCO2 power cycles.

Marshall, Michael [Southwest Research Institute, S

Microstructure-Based Understanding of High-Temperature Deformation Behaviors in Laser Powder Bed Fusion (LPBF) 316H Stainless Steel

This report presents the results of high-temperature mechanical property testing and microstructural analysis of laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) 316H stainless steel (SS) conducted during Fiscal Year 2025 (FY25) under the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy’s Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies (AMMT) program. The study builds upon prior work by expanding the mechanical property test matrix and advancing a microstructure-based mechanistic understanding of LPBF 316H SS performance, with a focus on the solution annealed (SA, 1100°C for 1 hour) materials. High-temperature tension, creep, fatigue, and creep-fatigue tests were performed. Thermal aging studies were conducted. Advanced characterization techniques, including scanning electron microscopy (SEM), scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM), and high-energy synchrotron X-ray diffraction, were employed to investigate the microstructural evolution during thermal aging and mechanical testing. It was discovered that the as-built (AB) LPBF 316H SS exhibited precipitation kinetics during thermal aging that are 10–100 times faster than its wrought counterpart due to the presence of high densities of preferred nucleation sites, while the precipitation kinetics in SA LPBF 316H was under investigation. The accelerated precipitation of embrittling phases such as sigma phase in LPBF 316H SS compared to its wrought counterpart led to significant impacts on creep ductility. The influence of laser printing parameters and build orientations on fatigue and creep-fatigue performance was observed. In assessing the creep-fatigue performance, it was discovered that the SA LPBF 316H samples failed in less than 200 cycles under 595°C, 0.5% (strain amplitude) with a 60-minute hold time. This work establishes a mechanistic framework for predicting the long-term behavior of LPBF 316H SS, supporting its rapid qualification under the ASME BPVC. The findings contribute to the broader goal of enabling the deployment of advanced materials in next-generation nuclear energy systems. An outlook for FY26 work, including continued aging studies, mechanical testing, and microstructural characterization, is provided.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Evaluation of the Mechanical Properties of Cast and Wrought CF8C-Plus Relevant to ASME Code Case Qualification

The mechanical behavior of a cast form of an advanced austenitic stainless steel, CF8C-Plus, is compared with that of its wrought equivalent in terms of both tensile and creep-rupture properties and estimated allowable stress values for pressurized service at temperatures up to about 850°C. A traditional Larson-Miller parametric model is used to analyze the creep-rupture data and to predict long-term lifetimes for comparison of the two alloy types. The cast CF8C-Plus exhibited lower yield and tensile strengths, but higher creep strength compared to its wrought counterpart. Two welding methods, shielded-metal-arc welding (SMAW) and gas-metal-arc welding, met the weld qualification acceptance criteria in ASME BPVC Section IX for the cast CF8C-Plus. However, for the wrought CF8C-Plus, while SMAW and gas-tungsten-arc welding passed the tensile acceptance criteria, they failed the side bend tests due to lack of fusion or weld metal discontinuities.

Chen, Xiang

Evaluating design safety margins in the American Society of Mechanical Engineers graphite core components design-by-analysis assessments

Graphite is an important material being used for core components in next-generation high-temperature gas-cooled nuclear reactors. The selection of graphite grade for a specific Designer is a complex task, dependent on reactor conditions, component functionality, and required reliability. The American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) provides two semi-probabilistic design-by-analysis assessments to evaluate graphite core components against design reliability targets. The simplified assessment uses a 2-parameter Weibull distribution to describe the graphite grade’s tensile-strength distribution to establish component stress limits. The full assessment uses the 3-parameter Weibull distribution and a modified Weakest-Link Theory approach to calculate a component design probability of failure. The paper defines recommended assessment rules, which are the as-written simplified assessment and the full assessment with parameter lower bounds, the modulus update with threshold reduction, and the 2027 grouping rules. Code rules are applied to three grades: 2114, IG-110, and NBG-18. The baseline margin calculation is developed using the experimental tensile dogbone specimen. Percent margin is defined as the percent reduction in the median experimental load to obtain the allowable load per ASME assessments. Under the recommended rules, the SRC–1 margin in the simplified assessment ranged from 40.2 % to 52.7 % among the grades in this study and from 36.1 % to 49.8 % in the full assessment. The full assessment only decreases the margins by 2.5–4.5 % for the SRC-1 components and 0–1.5 % for the SRC-2 components for this baseline case. Margin is inversely related to material median strength (i.e., the strongest grade, 2114, has the lowest margin).

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS

Interesting Graphite Facts

Interesting facts about graphite. Graphite within HTRs and how long they will last, potential issues prediction, model building to predict expected behavior, and frequent and thorough inspection and monitoring strategy.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS

FY25 status report on the addition of candidate materials in Class B Code Case

This report provides the time-dependent allowable stress calculation strategy leveraging the limited creep rupture tests data generated to support the allowable stress for 100,000 hours in American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code (BPVC), Section II, Part D. A variable confidence index procedure to extrapolate material properties to support 500,000 hours design life is discussed. Time-dependent allowable stresses for Class B component design and analysis are presented for Grade 1 and Grade 2 of Alloy 625. The presented data extrapolation and allowable stress calculation method will support new material addition using limited creep rupture data in the new ASME Boiler and BPVC, Section III, Division 5, Class B rules.

Part D

Experimental and Analytical Verification of ASME Section IiII Division 5 Creep-Fatigue Design Rules

The continuous advancement of structural materials and the growing demands for more reliable and economical structural components in high-temperature reactor applications have necessitated the development of comprehensive design methodologies and design rules. Mechanical degradation of structural components at elevated temperatures subjected to cyclic deformation is controlled by the creep-fatigue damage. Over the past few decades, diligent research efforts have been dedicated to refining the development of elevated temperature design rules in the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code (BPVC), Section III, Division 5 and to develop conservative design rules that can effectively guard against the risk of creep-fatigue failure. In ASME Section III, Division 5, for a design to pass the creep-fatigue acceptance criteria, creep damage and fatigue damage are evaluated separately, and these damages must not violate the bi-linear creep-fatigue interaction diagram, i.e., the so-called D-diagram. The creep-fatigue damage evaluation procedure assumes that the effects of the actual cyclic loading sequence can be bounded by assuming that the individual loading cycles are uniformly distributed throughout the component design life. In this study, creep-fatigue experiments with variable amplitudes and loading sequencies were designed and performed on Alloy 617 at high temperatures. The results were analyzed to evaluate the loading history effect on creep-fatigue damage accumulation and to verify the assumptions for the creep-fatigue evaluation design rules.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE