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Maynard Participation in Alaska Forum on the Environment Panel Discussion on Increasing Input to the US National Climate Assessment (NCA) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Processes from Alaska, with Emphasis on Indigenous Peoples Issues

Dr. Nancy Maynard was invited by the Alaska Forum on the Environment to participate in a Panel Discussion to discuss (1) background about what the US NCA and International IPCC assessments are, (2) the impact the assessments have on policy-making, (3) the process for participation in both assessments, (4) how we can increase participation by Indigenous Peoples such as Native Americans and Alaska Natives, (5) How we can increase historical and current impacts input from Native communities through stories, oral history, "grey" literature, etc. The session will be chaired by Dr. Bull Bennett, a cochair of the US NCA's chapter on "Native and Tribal Lands and Resources" and Dr. Maynard is the other co-chair of that chapter and they will discuss the latest activities under the NCA process relevant to Native Americans and Alaska Natives. Dr. Maynard is also a Lead Author of the "Polar Regions" chapter of the IPCC WG2 (5th Assessment) and she will describes some of the latest approaches by the IPCC to entrain more Indigenous peoples into the IPCC process.

Maynard, Nancy G.

Northeast Alaska Climate: Using Earth Observations to Evaluate Snow Variability through a Climatological Analysis to Support Ecological Monitoring in Northeast Alaska

Alaska is experiencing climate change at an unprecedented rate, with temperatures increasing twice as fast as the national average. The resulting changes to the landscape and ecosystems are significant, including shorter winters, declining snow depth, thawing permafrost, and rapidly receding glaciers. These changes are not only exacerbating the negative impacts of oil exploration but also affecting the food security of indigenous communities that rely on hunting as a subsistence food source. With the US Fish and Wildlife Service managing a potential tundra travel season for the first time in its history, adequate data on historic snow variables is essential to protect the unique habitat of the area. This project used NASA satellite and assimilation system data to inform and improve the current understanding of snow patterns in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and the National Petroleum Reserve – Alaska. The DEVELOP team used MODIS Normalized Difference Snow Index data to determine snow season duration, snow change frequency, and the first and last days of snow. The team also utilized the 2.1 Global Land Data Assimilation System and Daymet V4 products to study climatological trends in snow depth and snow water equivalent, respectively, across the study areas. The results of this study give users the capacity to visualize maps of multiple snow variables to monitor changes in snow conditions and proactively prepare for the ecological, cultural, and landscape impacts that changes in snow variability will cause in the future.

Remote Sensing

Alaska Transportation & Infrastructure - Identifying Permafrost Subsidence Using NASA Earth Observations to Pinpoint Road & Infrastructure Vulnerability in Fairbanks, Alaska

A rapidly warming Arctic has compromised the structural integrity of critical infrastructure through accelerated permafrost thaw and thermokarst development underlying these areas. Infrastructure, including roads, bridges, and airports across the state of Alaska are particularly at risk, as permafrost underlies ~85% of the state. However, monitoring the impacts of permafrost thaw on infrastructure is largely limited to in situ observations and frequently identified after the damage is evident. In order to assist transportation and infrastructure decision-makers in Alaska, this project identified and quantified areas of surface subsidence near critical infrastructure. Seasonal interferograms were created using Sentinel-1 C-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and L-band Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle SAR (UAVSAR) data to identify areas experiencing surface deformation. Additionally, Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) datasets were used to validate select interferograms created between 2017 and 2019. Validation of subsidence detection across platforms was performed over a 7x8 sq. kilometer field site for 2017. UAVSAR and Sentinel-1 seasonal deformation returns produced consistent spatial deformation patterns with residual root mean squared errors of 13 and 21 millimeters, respectively. These results suggest that both UAVSAR and Sentinel-1 platforms are capable of detecting surface subsidence. The higher resolution of UAVSAR is better able to resolve localized subsidence features of less than 80 meters, but is limited by temporal resolution.In conjunction, UAVSAR and Sentinel-1 can provide complementary spatial and temporal resolutions for subsidence analysis in the absence of in situ data.

Patrick Saylor

Alaska Transportation & Infrastructure Identifying Permafrost Subsidence Using NASA Earth Observations to Pinpoint Road and Infrastructure Vulnerability in Fairbanks, Alaska

A rapidly warming Arctic has compromised the structural integrity of critical infrastructure through accelerated permafrost thaw and thermokarst development underlying these areas. Infrastructure, including roads, bridges, and airports across the state of Alaska are particularly at risk, as permafrost underlies ~85% of the state. However, monitoring the impacts of permafrost thaw on infrastructure is largely limited to in situ observations and frequently identified after the damage is evident. In order to assist transportation and infrastructure decision-makers in Alaska, this project identified and quantified areas of surface subsidence near critical infrastructure. Seasonal interferograms were created using Sentinel-1 C-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and L-band Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle SAR (UAVSAR) data to identify areas experiencing surface deformation. Additionally, Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) datasets were used to validate select interferograms created between 2017 and 2019. Validation of subsidence detection across platforms was performed over a 7x8 sq. kilometer field site for 2017. The strongest relationship in spatial deformation is observed between Sentinel-1 and UAVSAR with a residual root mean square error of 20 mm. These results suggest that both UAVSAR and Sentinel-1 platforms are capable of detecting surface subsidence. The higher resolution of UAVSAR is better able to resolve localized subsidence features of less than 80 meters, but is limited by temporal resolution. In conjunction, UAVSAR and Sentinel-1 can provide complementary spatial and temporal resolutions for subsidence analysis in the absence of in situ data.

DEVELOP Tech Paper

Applications of remote sensing data in Alaska: A cooperative program of the University of Alaska with user organizations, including local, state and federal government agencies

The development of the coastal-zone-related issues is generating an increasing need for information which is greater in quantity of natural resource data, greater in quality of detail of data, and more frequent in collection of data owing to the need to monitor certain aspects of programs. The array, detail, and frequency of information acquisition required to develop natural resources and to implement and maintain the resulting programs demand improved techniques of data gathering, processing, and interpretation which is conducive to the use of remote-sensing techniques. As Alaska, both in the state and federal domain, gears up to meet the energy-related issues facing the nation there will be a growing role for efforts which adapt state-of-the-art tools to solving existing problems.

Miller, J. M.

Research status and recommendations from the Alaska Workshop on Gravity Waves and Turbulence in the Middle Atmosphere, Fairbanks, Alaska, 18-22 July 1983

The Alaska Workshop on Gravity Waves and Turbulence in the Middle Atmosphere had as its purpose the assessment of current theoretical understanding and observational capabilities in this field, as well as to suggest what additional studies would further knowledge of these processes and their effects on the large scale circulation of the middle atmosphere. While it is judged that current understanding is primitive, theoretical and modelling studies are held to be able to contribute important quantitative data on gravity wave excitation, propagation, and dissipation mechanisms and effects. The combination of several observational systems is considered capable of expanding the present knowledge of gravity wave and turbulence morphology, parameters, and processes.

Fritts, D. C.

Alaska Crustal Deformation: Finite Element Modeling Constrained by Geologic and Very Long Baseline Interferometry Data

We compute crustal motions in Alaska by calculating the finite element solution for an elastic spherical shell problem. The method we use allows the finite element mesh to include faults and very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) baseline rates of change. Boundary conditions include Pacific-North American (PA-NA) plate motions. The solution is constrained by the oblique orientation of the Fairweather-Queen Charlotte strike-slip faults relative to the PA-NA relative motion direction and the oblique orientation from normal convergence of the eastern Aleutian trench fault systems, as well as strike-shp motion along the Denali and Totschunda fault systems. We explore the effects that a range of fault slip constraints and weighting of VLBI rates of change has on the solution. This allows us to test the motion on faults, such as the Denali fault, where there are conflicting reports on its present-day slip rate. We find a pattern of displacements which produce fault motions generally consistent with geologic observations. The motion of the continuum has the general pattern of radial movement of crust to the NE away from the Fairweather-Queen Charlotte fault systems in SE Alaska and Canada. This pattern of crustal motion is absorbed across the Mackenzie Mountains in NW Canada, with strike-slip motion constrained along the Denali and Tintina fault systems. In south central Alaska and the Alaska forearc oblique convergence at the eastern Aleutian trench and the strike-shp motion of the Denali fault system produce a counterclockwise pattern of motion which is partially absorbed along the Contact and related fault systems in southern Alaska and is partially extruded into the Bering Sea and into the forearc parallel the Aleutian trench from the Alaska Peninsula westward. Rates of motion and fault slip are small in western and northern Alaska, but the motions we compute are consistent with the senses of strike-slip motion inferred geologically along the Kaltag, Kobuk Trench, and Thompson Creek faults and with the normal faulting observed in NW Alaska near Nome. The nonrigid behavior of our finite element solution produces patterns of motion that would not have been expected from rigid block models: strike-slip faults can exist in a continuum that has motion mostly perpendicular to their strikes, and faults can exhibit along-strike differences in magnitudes and directions.

Lundgren, Paul

Alaska Humans Factors Safety Study: The Northern Area

At the request of the Alaska Air Carriers Association, researchers from the NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System, at NASA Ames Research Center, conducted a study on aspects of safety in Alaskan Part 135 air taxi operations. An interview form on human factors safety issues was created by a representative team from the FAA-Alaska, NTSB-Alaska, NASAASRS, and representatives of the Alaska Air Carriers Association which was subsequently used in the interviews of pilots and managers. Because of the climate and operational differences, the study was broken into two geographical areas, the southern coastal areas and the northern portion of the state. This presentation addresses the northern area, specifically: Bethel, Fairbanks, Nome, Kotzebue, and Barrow. The interview questions dealt with many of the potential pressures on pilots and managers associated with the daily air taxi operations in Alaska. The impact of the environmental factors such as the lack of available communication, navigation and weather information systems was evaluated. The results of this study will be used by government and industry working in Alaska. These findings will contribute important information on specific Alaska safety issues for eventual incorporation into training materials and policies that will help to assure the safe conduct of air taxi flights in Alaska.

Connell, Linda

Alaska Humans Factors Safety Study: The Southern Coastal Area

At the request of the Alaska Air Carriers Association, researchers from the NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System, at NASA Ames Research Center, conducted a study on aspects of safety in Alaskan Part 135 air taxi operations. An interview form on human factors safety issues was created by a representative team from the FAA-Alaska, NTSB-Alaska, NASA-ASRS, and representatives of the Alaska Air Carriers Association which was subsequently used in the interviews of pilots and managers. Because of the climate and operational differences, the study was broken into two geographical areas, the southern coastal areas and the northern portion of the state. This presentation addresses the southern coastal areas, specifically: Anchorage, Dillingham, King Salmon, Kodiak, Cold Bay, Juneau, and Ketchikan. The interview questions dealt with many of the potential pressures on pilots and managers associated with the daily air taxi operations in Alaska. The impact of the environmental factors such as the lack of available communication, navigation and weather information systems was evaluated. The results of this study will be used by government and industry working in Alaska. These findings will contribute important information on specific Alaska safety issues for eventual incorporation into training materials and policies that will help to assure the safe conduct of air taxi flights in Alaska.

Chappell, Sheryl L.

Satellite Sounder Data Assimilation for Improving Alaska Region Weather Forecast

A case study and monthly statistical analysis using sounder data assimilation to improve the Alaska regional weather forecast model are presented. Weather forecast in Alaska faces challenges as well as opportunities. Alaska has a large land with multiple types of topography and coastal area. Weather forecast models must be finely tuned in order to accurately predict weather in Alaska. Being in the high-latitudes provides Alaska greater coverage of polar orbiting satellites for integration into forecasting models than the lower 48. Forecasting marine low stratus clouds is critical to the Alaska aviation and oil industry and is the current focus of the case study. NASA AIRS/CrIS sounder profiles data are used to do data assimilation for the Alaska regional weather forecast model to improve Arctic marine stratus clouds forecast. Choosing physical options for the WRF model is discussed. Preprocess of AIRS/CrIS sounder data for data assimilation is described. Local observation data, satellite data, and global data assimilation data are used to verify and/or evaluate the forecast results by the MET tools Model Evaluation Tools (MET).

Zhu, Jiang

Satellite Sounder Data Assimilation for Improving Alaska Region Weather Forecast

Data assimilation has been demonstrated very useful in improving both global and regional numerical weather prediction. Alaska has very coarser surface observation sites. On the other hand, it gets much more satellite overpass than lower 48 states. How to utilize satellite data to improve numerical prediction is one of hot topics among weather forecast community in Alaska. The Geographic Information Network of Alaska (GINA) at University of Alaska is conducting study on satellite data assimilation for WRF model. AIRS/CRIS sounder profile data are used to assimilate the initial condition for the customized regional WRF model (GINA-WRF model). Normalized standard deviation, RMSE, and correlation statistic analysis methods are applied to analyze one case of 48 hours forecasts and one month of 24-hour forecasts in order to evaluate the improvement of regional numerical model from Data assimilation. The final goal of the research is to provide improved real-time short-time forecast for Alaska regions.

Zhu, Jiang

The Vegetation Greenness Trend in Canada and US Alaska from 1984-2012 Landsat Data

To assess the North American high-latitude vegetation response to the rising temperature, we derived NDVI end for 91.2% of the non-water, non-snow land area of Canada and Alaska using the peak-summer Landsat surface reflectance data of 19842012. Our analysis indicated that 29.4% and 2.9 of the land area of Canada and Alaska showed statistically significant positive (greening) and negative (browning) trends respectively, at significance level p b 0.01, after burned forest areas were masked out. The area with greening trend dominated over that with browning trend for all land cover types. The greening occurred primarily in the tundra of western Alaska, along the north coast of Canada and in northeastern Canada; the most intensive and extensive greening occurred in Quebec and Labrador. The browning occurred mostly in the boreal forests of eastern Alaska. The Landsat-based greenness trend is broadly similar to the 8-km GIMMS AVHRR-based trend for all vegetation zones. However, for tundra, the Landsat data indicated much less extensive greening in Alaska North Slope and much more extensive greening in Quebec and Labrador, and substantially less extensive browning trend in the boreal forests that were free of fire disturbances. These differences call for further validation of the Landsat reflectance and the AVHRR NDVI datasets. Correlation study with local environmental factors, such as topography, glacial history and soil condition, will be needed to understand the heterogeneous greenness change at the Landsat scale.

Ju, Junchang

NASA SPoRT JPSS PG Activities in Alaska

SPoRT (NASA's Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center) has collaboratively worked with Alaska WFOs (Weather Forecast Offices) to introduce RGB (Red/Green/Blue false color image) imagery to prepare for NOAA-20 (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, JPSS (Joint Polar Satellite System) series-20 satellite) VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) and improve forecasting aviation-related hazards. Last R2O/O2R (Research-to-Operations/Operations-to-Research) steps include incorporating NOAA-20 VIIRS in RGB suite and fully transitioning client-side RGB processing to GINA (Geographic Information Network of Alaska) and Alaska Region. Alaska Region WFOs have been part of the successful R2O/O2R story to assess the use of NESDIS (National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service) Snowfall Rate product in operations. SPoRT introduced passive microwave rain rate and IMERG (Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (Global Precipitation Measurement)) (IMERG) to Alaska WFOs for use in radar-void areas and assessing flooding potential. SPoRT has been part of the multi-organization collaborative effort to introduce Gridded NUCAPS (NOAA Unique CrIS/ATMS (Crosstrack Infrared Sounder/Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder) Processing System) to the Anchorage CWSU (Center Weather Service Unit) to assess Cold Air Aloft events, [and as part of NOAA's PG (Product Generation) effort].

Berndt, Emily

Importance of Tree- and Species-Level Interactions With Wildfire, Climate, and Soils in Interior Alaska: Implications for Forest Change Under A Warming Climate

The boreal zone of Alaska is dominated by interactions between disturbances, vegetation, and soils. These interactions are likely to change in the future through increasing permafrost thaw, more frequent and intense wildfires, and vegetation change from drought and competition. We utilize an individual tree-based vegetation model, the University of Virginia Forest Model Enhanced (UVAFME), to estimate current and future forest conditions across sites within interior Alaska. We updated UVAFME for application within interior Alaska, including improved simulation of permafrost dynamics, litter decay, nutrient dynamics, fire mortality, and post-fire regrowth. Following these updates, UVAFME output on species-specific biomass and stem density was comparable to inventory measurements at various forest types within interior Alaska. We then simulated forest response to climate change at specific inventory locations and across the Tanana Valley River Basin on a 2 × 2 km2 grid. We derived projected temperature and precipitation from a five-model average taken from the CMIP5 archive under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Results suggest that climate change and the concomitant impacts on wildfire and permafrost dynamics will result in overall decreases in biomass (particularly for spruce (Picea spp.)) within the interior Tanana Valley, despite increases in quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides) biomass, and a resulting shift towards higher deciduous fraction. Simulation results also predict increases in biomass at cold, wet locations and at high elevations, and decreases in biomass in dry locations, under both moderate (RCP 4.5) and extreme (RCP 8.5) climate change scenarios. These simulations demonstrate that a highly detailed, species interactive model can be used across a large region within Alaska to investigate interactions between vegetation, climate, wildfire, and permafrost. The vegetation changes predicted here have the capacity to feed back to broader scale climate-forest interactions in the North American boreal forest, a region which contributes significantly to the global carbon and energy budgets.

forest modeling

Improving Sanitation and Health in Rural Alaska

In rural Alaskan communities personal health is threatened by energy costs and limited access to clean water, wastewater management, and adequate nutrition. Fuel-­‐based energy systems are significant factors in determining local accessibility to clean water, sanitation and food. Increasing fuel costs induce a scarcity of access and impact residents' health. The University of Alaska Fairbanks (UAF) School of Natural Resources and Agricultural Sciences (SNRAS), NASA's Ames Research Center, and USDA Agricultural Research Service (ARS) have joined forces to develop high‐efficiency, low­‐energy consuming techniques for water treatment and food production in rural circumpolar communities. Methods intended for exploration of space and establishment of settlements on the Moon or Mars will ultimately benefit Earth's communities in the circumpolar north. The initial phase of collaboration is completed. Researchers from NASA Ames Research Center and SNRAS, funded by the USDA­‐ARS, tested a simple, reliable, low-energy sewage treatment system to recycle wastewater for use in food production and other reuse options in communities. The system extracted up to 70% of the water from sewage and rejected up to 92% of ions in the sewage with no carryover of toxic effects. Biological testing showed that plant growth using recovered water in the nutrient solution was equivalent to that using high‐purity distilled water. With successful demonstration that the low energy consuming wastewater treatment system can provide safe water for communities and food production, the team is ready to move forward to a full‐scale production testbed. The SNRAS/NASA team (including Alaska students) will design a prototype to match water processing rates and food production to meet rural community sanitation needs and nutritional preferences. This system would be operated in Fairbanks at the University of Alaska through SNRAS. Long­‐term performance will be validated and operational needs of the system determined. The testbed will be a part of the university education and operator training program. The "Forgotten Alaska" has long awaited this technology to augment the traditional

Plant Growth