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At least 19 records

A study of examiner accuracy in cartridge case comparisons. Part 2: Examiner use of the AFTE range of conclusions

Here, this report describes an analysis of how examiners used the Association of Firearm and Toolmark Examiners (AFTE) Range of Conclusions in a controlled study undertaken to estimate examiner error rates in comparing cartridge cases. Results of the error rate analysis are reported in [1]; this paper focuses on a broader analysis of how the entire collection of classification categories, especially those in the Inconclusive range, were used by the participating examiners. Volunteer active examiners with AFTE membership or working in laboratories that participate in Association of Crime Laboratory Directors (ASCLD) were provided with 15 sets of three known and one questioned cartridge cases fired from a collection of 25 new Ruger SR9 handguns. Remington 9-mm Luger (manufacturer designation L9MM3) ammunition was used and comparison sets were made up of cartridge cases fired within 100 cartridges of each other for each gun. Examiners were provided with a background survey, an answer sheet allowing for the AFTE Range of Conclusions, and return shipping materials. The participating examiners were provided with both same-source and different-source comparison sets allowing the study to assess both error rates. Responses were received from 218 participating examiners. The overall rate of false-negatives was estimated as 0.367 % from comparisons known to be from the same firearm but reported as eliminations. The overall rate of false-positives was estimated as 1.01 % from comparisons known to be from different firearms but reported as identifications. In the case of true different-source examinations, it is clear that the three Inconclusive categories and the Elimination category are not used consistently by all examiners. We identify five different apparent patterns of use of the AFTE Range of Conclusions scale, and discuss possible reasons for and implications of these differences.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Curved seal for adjacent gas turbine components

A flexible seal for sealing between two adjacent gas turbine components includes a forward end, an aft end axially separated from the forward end, and an intermediate portion between the forward end and the aft end. The intermediate portion defines a continuous curve in the circumferential direction, such that the aft end is circumferentially offset from the forward end. In other cases, the forward and aft ends are axially, radially, and circumferentially offset from one another. A method of sealing using the flexible seal includes inserting, in an axial direction, the aft end of the flexible seal into a recess defined by respective seal slots of two adjacent gas turbine components; and pushing the flexible seal in an axial direction through the recess until the forward end is disposed within the recess.

Sarawate, Neelesh Nandkumar↗

Vapor detection and vapor pressure measurements of fentanyl and fentanyl hydrochloride salt at ambient temperatures

There is a need for non-contact, real-time vapor detection of drugs to combat illicit transportation and help curb the opioid epidemic. The low-volatility of drugs, like fentanyl, makes room temperature vapor detection of illicit drugs challenging, but feasible by atmospheric flow tube-mass spectrometry (AFT-MS). AFT-MS is a non-contact vapor detection approach capable of ultra-trace detection of drugs, including fentanyl and its analogs at low parts-per-quadrillion (ppqv) levels. The determination of vapor pressure values of fentanyl is necessary to understand potential vapor concentrations that may be available for detection. In this paper, vapor pressures of fentanyl free base and fentanyl hydrochloride salt (a common form of the illicit drug) were measured as a function of temperature at or near ambient conditions using the transpiration (gas saturation) method and AFT-MS. Based on our measurements, the vapor pressure of fentanyl at 25 °C is 9.0 × 10-14 atm (90 ppqv), and the vapor pressure of fentanyl hydrochloride at 25 °C is 1.8 x 10-17 atm (0.018 ppqv). We also demonstrate non-contact, real-time vapor detection of fentanyl. Preconcentration of vapors can further extend the detection capabilities. The collection, desorption, and detection of fentanyl vapors at ambient conditions was demonstrated for sampling times of seconds to an hour resulting in increased signal. AFT-MS is a viable detection method of fentanyl and other drugs for screening of packages and cargo.

atmospheric flow tube-mass spectrometry (AFT-MS), ↗

Reducing ion diffusion at atmospheric pressure through intermingled positive and negative ions

Increasing ion molecule reaction times for ambient ionization techniques can increase sensitivity of detection. Longer reaction times result in an increase in analyte signal relative to the reactant ion signal, however with a subsequent decrease in the total ion intensity. This loss in the total number of ions reaching the detector limits the extent to which increased reaction time can improve detection in practical applications. In this study ion loss was measured using either electric fields or gas flow to control ion transit time. Ion transit times ranged from 40 ms to 8s, which resulted in ion densities ranging from 5 x 10 6 to 2 x 10 4 ions/cm 3 , respectively. These results provide insights into practical reaction time limitations or experimental boundaries when exploring sensitivity enhancements in ambient ionization. When exploring longer reaction times with an atmospheric flow tube coupled to a mass spectrometer (AFT-MS), an additional corona discharge ionization source of the same polarity was added in an attempt to increase total ion signal, but no improvement in signal was observed. This observation suggested that there was a maximum ion density being reached by the corona discharge that could not be increased by adding more of the same polarity ions. A hypothesis was that intermingling both polarities of ions would reduce ion loss and increase the measured ion signal. When two corona discharge sources—one each of positive and negative polarity—were used simultaneously in an AFT-MS, the total ion signal of either polarity measured by the MS was approximately double the current from a single corona discharge source. An increase in the negative ion signal was also observed when ~10 parts-per-trillion vapor levels of an explosive (RDX) were introduced. In this case both the nitrate reactant ions and the RDX signal more than doubled with the addition of a corona discharge source producing positive ions. When intermingling positive and negative ions, an increase in ion current was also observed when the AFT was coupled directly to a Faraday detector or to an ion mobility spectrometer. This was the first demonstration of interfacing the AFT to an IMS. The observations and developments from this work will help in creating more portable instruments with improved sensitivity for detection of chemicals.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Curved seal with relief cuts for adjacent gas turbine components

A flexible seal is used to seal between two adjacent gas turbine components. The flexible seal includes at least one metal ply having a forward end, an aft end axially separated from the forward end, and an intermediate portion between the forward end and the aft end. The intermediate portion defines a continuous curve in the circumferential direction, such that the aft end is circumferentially, and optionally radially, offset from the forward end. A plurality of relief cuts is defined through the at least one metal ply between the forward end and the aft end to increase flexibility and improve sealing in seal slots that are radially offset from one another.

Sarawate, Neelesh Nandkumar↗

Impact of Limited Degree of Freedom Drag Coefficients on a Floating Offshore Wind Turbine Simulation

The worldwide effort to design and commission floating offshore wind turbines (FOWT) is motivating the need for reliable numerical models that adequately represent their physical behavior under realistic sea states. However, properly representing the hydrodynamic quadratic damping for FOWT remains uncertain, because of its dependency on the choice of drag coefficients (dimensionless or not). It is hypothesized that the limited degree of freedom (DoF) drag coefficient formulation that uses only translational drag coefficients causes mischaracterization of the rotational DoF drag, leading to underestimation of FOWT global loads, such as tower base fore-aft shear. To address these hydrodynamic modeling uncertainties, different quadratic drag models implemented in the open-source mid-fidelity simulation tool, OpenFAST, were investigated and compared with the experimental data from the Offshore Code Comparison Collaboration, Continued, with Correlation (OC5) project. The tower base fore-aft shear and up-wave mooring line tension were compared under an irregular wave loading condition to demonstrate the effects of the different damping models. Two types of hydrodynamic quadratic drag formulations were considered: (1) member-based dimensionless drag coefficients applied only at the translational DoF (namely limited-DoF drag model) and (2) quadratic drag matrix model (in dimensional form). Based on the results, the former consistently underestimated the 95th percentile peak loads and spectral responses when compared to the OC5 experimental data. In contrast, the drag matrix models reduced errors in estimates of the tower base shear peak load by 7–10% compared to the limited-DoF drag model. The underestimation in the tower base fore-aft shear was thus inferred be related to mischaracterization of the rotational pitch drag and the heave motion/drag by the limited-DoF model.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Integrated combustor nozzles with continuously curved liner segments

An integrated combustor nozzle includes an inner liner segment; an outer liner segment; and a panel extending radially between the inner and outer liner segments. The panel includes a forward end, an aft end, and a side walls extending axially from the forward end to the aft end. The aft end defines a turbine nozzle having a trailing edge circumferentially offset from the forward end. The inner liner segment has a pair of sealing surfaces, each of which defines a first continuous curve in the circumferential direction. The outer liner segment has a pair of sealing surfaces, each of which defines a second continuous curve in the circumferential direction. In some instances, the curves are monotonic in the circumferential direction. A segmented annular combustor including an array of such integrated combustor nozzles is also provided.

Berry, Jonathan Dwight↗

A study of examiner accuracy in cartridge case comparisons. Part 1: Examiner error rates

This report describes a study undertaken to estimate examiner (not laboratory) error rates for false Identifications and false Eliminations when comparing an unknown to a collection of three known cartridge cases. Volunteer active examiners with Association of Firearm and Toolmark Examiners (AFTE) membership or working in laboratories that participate in the Association of Crime Laboratory Directors (ASCLD) were provided with 15 sets of three known and one questioned cartridge cases fired from a collection of 25 new Ruger SR9 handguns. Remington 9-mm Luger (manufacturer designation L9MM3) ammunition was used and comparison sets were made up of cartridge cases fired within 100 cartridges of each other for each gun. Examiners were provided with a background survey, an answer sheet allowing for the AFTE Range of Conclusions, and return shipping materials. In addition to determining whether the known and questioned cartridge cases were fired with the same handgun, examiners were also asked to assess how many of the three knowns in each set were suitable for comparison, providing an estimated rate of how often each firearm used in the study produces useable, quality marks. The participating examiners were provided with both same-source and different-source comparison sets allowing the study to assess both error rates. Responses were received from 218 participating examiners. The overall rate of false Eliminations was estimated as 0.367% from comparisons known to be from the same firearm but reported as Eliminations. The overall rate of false Identifications was estimated as 1.01% from comparisons known to be from different firearms but reported as Identifications. The rates are not uniform across the sample population with a few examiners providing most of the false Identification responses. Rates of poor-quality mark production varied across the 25 sample handguns; those rates were 2.3% (±1.4%). Both false Elimination and false Identification rates are comparable to or lower than the rate of production of poor-quality marks by the firearms used in this study.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Standoff trace explosives vapor detection at meter distances

Vapor detection is a noncontact sampling method, which is a less invasive means of explosives screening than physical swiping. Explosive vapor detection is a challenge due to the low levels of vapors available for detection. This study demonstrates that the parts-per-quadrillion sensitivity of atmospheric flow tube-mass spectrometry (AFT-MS) combined with a high-volume air sampler enables standoff detection of trace explosives vapor at distances of centimeters to meters. Standoff detection of explosives vapor was possible both upstream and downstream of the vapor source relative to room air currents. RDX vapor from a saturated source was detected at up to 2.5 m. Vapors from RDX residue and nitroglycerin residue were detected at distances up to 0.5 m. The sampling can be optimized by accounting for air movement in the room or environment, which could further extend standoff detection distances. In conclusion, using AFT-MS with a high-volume sampler could also be effective for standoff vapor detection of drugs and additional chemical threats and could be useful for security screening applications such as at mail facilities, border crossings, and security checkpoints.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

In with the old, in with the new: machine learning for time to event biomedical research

The predictive modeling literature for biomedical applications is dominated by biostatistical methods for survival analysis, and more recently some out of the box machine learning approaches. In this article, we show a presentation of a machine learning method appropriate for time-to-event modeling in the area of prostate cancer long-term disease progression. Using XGBoost adapted to long-term disease progression, we developed a predictive model for 118 788 patients with localized prostate cancer at diagnosis from the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA). Our model accounted for patient censoring. Harrell’s c-index for our model using only features available at the time of diagnosis was 0.757 95% confidence interval [0.756, 0.757]. Our results show that machine learning methods like XGBoost can be adapted to use accelerated failure time (AFT) with censoring to model long-term risk of disease progression. Furthermore, the long median survival justifies and requires censoring. Overall, we show that an existing machine learning approach can be used for AFT outcome modeling in prostate cancer, and more generally for other chronic diseases with long observation times.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Impingement panel for a turbomachine

An integrated combustor nozzle includes a combustion liner that extends radially between an inner liner segment and an outer liner segment. The combustion liner includes a forward end portion, an aft end portion, a first side wall, and a second side wall. The aft end portion of the combustion liner defines a turbine nozzle. The integrated combustor nozzle further includes an impingement panel having an impingement plate disposed along an exterior surface of one of the inner liner segment or the outer liner segment. The impingement plate defines a plurality of impingement holes that direct coolant in discrete jets towards the exterior surface of the inner liner segment or the outer liner segment. The impingement panel is radially spaced from the exterior surface to form a cooling flow gap therebetween. The impingement panel includes a collection duct that extends from the impingement panel and defines a collection passage.

Berry, Jonathan Dwight↗

Preconceptual Designs of Coupled Power Delivery between a 4-Loop PWR and 100-500 MWe HTSE Plants

This study develops a preconceptual design for the integration between a large-scale high-temperature electrolysis facility and a NPP. Two hydrogen facility sizes are considered: 100 MWnom and 500 MWnom. Both steam supply designs use cold reheat steam extraction as a heat source. A reboiler inside the protected area of the power plant transfers steam heat to the demineralized water supply for the hydrogen plant. After the heat transfer, the extracted steam condenses and returns to the condenser while the process steam routes out of the protected area to the electrolyzers. Electrical power is tapped off from the high voltage side of the GSU transformer, where it is then transported via a 345-kV transmission line to the hydrogen facility. Circuit breakers and disconnects are located at both ends of the transmission line. Step down transformers and miscellaneous switchgear/buses are located at the end of the transmission line inside the HTEF boundary. Control capabilities for the steam interfacing equipment and electrical dispatch are accessible from the Main Control Room, and protective relays for the transmission line are located inside the Relay Room. Computer modeling was performed for the thermal and electrical designs. PEPSE analysis provided the steady-state parameters for thermal extraction from the turbine cycle. These parameters were used to inform transients and size equipment in combination with Applied Flow Technology (AFT) Arrow and AFT Fathom modeling for steam and water piping, respectively. Electrical transients were analyzed using PSCAD. An ETAP model was used to evaluate power flow and short circuit, which enabled the sizing of transformers and protective equipment. A cost estimate was developed for both integration designs when considering plant separation distances of 250 m and 500 m. From these estimates, the modifications for thermal and electrical interfacing of a first-of-a-kind nuclear-integrated hydrogen facility are anticipated to cost between $60–250/kWnom., where the subscript “nom” refers to the nominal size of the hydrogen plant. On a thermal power basis, the thermal power has a cost of approximately $8/MWth for a 500 MWnom high temperature electrolysis plant located 500 m distant from the NPP. That value decreases to approximately $7.5/MWth for a 250 m separation distance between the hydrogen plant and the NPP. This value is lower than previous estimates of the cost of heat extracted from NPPs primarily because in this work the steam is extracted from cold reheat instead of the main steam line, which reduces the cost of the dispatched steam by approximately $3.5/MWth. Nuclear steam extraction can provide a profit avenue for many plants and is not restricted to hydrogen production. Ammonia production, oil refining, and paper production, among other industrial processes all require thermal energy, which can be provided by NPPs. Future work should look further at the details of thermal extraction for a variety of use cases. This can include increased levels of extraction and multiple simultaneous users. Additionally, site-specific studies should be performed to develop industry experience and improve cost accuracy.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Impingement cooling apparatus for turbomachine

An integrated combustor nozzle includes a combustion liner that extends radially between an inner liner segment and an outer liner segment, the combustion liner includes a forward end portion, an aft end portion, a first side wall, and a second side wall. The aft end portion of the combustion liner defines a turbine nozzle. The combustion liner defines a cavity forward of the turbine nozzle. The cavity extends between the first side wall and the second side wall. An impingement cooling apparatus positioned within the cavity. The impingement cooling apparatus includes a flange. The impingement cooling apparatus further includes a plurality of impingement members configured to direct coolant to impinge upon the first side wall and the second side wall. Each impingement member extends from a respective inlet defined within the flange to a respective closed end. A plurality of impingement apertures are defined on each impingement member.

Berry, Jonathan Dwight↗

Discovery of nanopore filling by gypsum in wellbore cement exposed to 17 MPa CO 2 under geologic carbon storage conditions

Here, this study investigates the pore structure evolution of the reaction zones in wellbore cement samples exposed to a CO 2 -rich solution in equilibrium with 17 MPa supercritical CO 2 over 14 days. Through advanced characterization methods of field emission SEM, Quantitative Evaluation of Minerals by Scanning Electron Microscopy (QEMSCAN), and micro-CT, a new mechanism of CO 2 -cement reaction involving filling of nanopores in the interior of cement by gypsum was revealed. Gypsum was formed by the liberation of SO 4 2− from ettringite (AFt) and monosulfate (AFm) caused by a decrease in pH. Based on these experimental observations, a new CO 2 -cement reaction model that incorporates four distinct reaction zones is developed. This model provides a comprehensive framework for understanding the spatial and temporal distribution of minerals in cement due to high pressure CO 2 —cement reactions. This study demonstrates that the major damage induced by high pressure CO 2 alteration occurs in the most exterior region of the cement. The interior region of the cement maintains its integrity due to nanopore filling by gypsum.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DNS of ignition and flame stabilization in a simplified gas turbine premixer

With the increasing need for fuel flexibility, mitigation of auto-ignition (AI) inside gas turbine (GT) premixers becomes crucial. They must be designed to yield a sufficiently homogeneous fuel-air mixture to achieve low emissions while at the same time avoiding the occurrence of AI and subsequent flame stabilization. This challenge requires a detailed understanding of turbulent mixing and chemistry interactions. In the present work, a direct numerical simulation (DNS) of an array of jets in crossflow (JICF), representative of an industrial GT premixer, is reported to shed light on these complex phenomena. It is found that AI kernels form in the aft part of the premixer and coalesce into a flame front that then propagates upstream, mainly through the boundary layer, and successively engulfs the jets. This, therefore, suggests a significant role of the jet array pattern on the flame stabilization. It is noted that AI kernels continue to form independently during the whole time of the simulation. To clarify the contribution of AI and diffusion in the ignition kernels and the main flame, chemical explosive mode analysis (CEMA) is employed jointly with a kernel tracking algorithm. It is found that during the initial formation of the flame, many ignition kernels form in mixtures with low scalar dissipation rate and large contribution from AI mode. As they quickly grow, they merge into a single flame front that becomes increasingly more diffusion-assisted over time, balancing the AI mode. Turbulence is shown to have a significant enhancing effect in lean premixed flames, but further analysis is required to fully characterize it. These findings are relevant for the industrial premixer studied, and also for novel micromix concepts that may be used in the next generation of GT combustion systems.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Ambient ion focusing from a field-free region to a detector: enhanced signal for explosives and drug detection with mass spectrometry

This study demonstrates ion focusing at ambient pressure and increased ion signal by creating a voltage gradient from a field-free region to a detector, thereby improving the detection of chemicals, such as explosives and drugs. At ambient pressure, ion loss and resulting signal reduction pose challenges that limit detection sensitivity in analytical instruments. Techniques to increase sensitivity, such as atmospheric flow tube-mass spectrometry (AFT-MS), extend ion-molecule reaction times but result in significant overall ion loss due to diffusion. Ion manipulation techniques, though challenging at ambient pressure, can mitigate these losses by concentrating ions toward the detector inlet. Using SIMION, ion trajectories were modeled with a voltage gradient applied between a flow tube and a detector, revealing ion focusing at ambient pressure. Experimental verification with an atmospheric flow tube employed both mass spectrometry and Faraday plate detectors to measure ion beam profiles across varying flow rates, tube diameters, and voltage gradients. Application of a voltage gradient effectively directed ions to the axial center of the flow tube, narrowed ion beam width, and increased signal intensity by 5 to 10 times compared to conditions without a voltage gradient. This ion focusing approach shows promise for improving sensitivity in ambient-pressure instruments. This technique has the potential to enhance detection levels in security and forensic applications, with particular benefits for field-portable devices used at checkpoints to identify explosives and drugs.

ambient pressure↗

Rapid approach for structural design of the tower and monopile for a series of 25 MW offshore turbines

The goal of further reducing the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) has driven the investigation of large-scale wind turbines. This work presents a simple, rapid and detailed approach for the structural design of the tower and monopile without a controller, but with frequency and high fidelity structural verification. The approach uses an optimization to reduce the mass of the structures while meeting strength, buckling and geometric constraints by using analytical equations. A verification of frequency constraints is performed with BModes, and ANSYS Mechanical APDL is used for high fidelity verification of stress and buckling. The approach is applied to study the design space of three 25 MW offshore wind turbines with different rotor diameters and cone angles, and to evaluate the nacelle center of mass fore-aft location effect. Results obtained show that the tower and monopile are more susceptible to changes in the rotor thrust than the overturning moment even for designs with high pre-cone angle and large distance of the nacelle center of mass from the tower axis. But it is possible to obtain structurally feasible tower and monopile designs for the three 25 MW turbines studied while not exceeding diameter and wall thickness limits. However, mass penalties can be decreased by 0.8-14%, to further reduce the cost of energy, by increasing the diameter limit which may require manufacturing technology development. The approach applied and studies serve to understand the design space of the tower and monopile for a 25 MW turbine, and provide baseline designs that can be used in the development of a controller and evaluation of a full suite of design load cases.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Aeroservoelastic Stability of a Floating Wind Turbine

The problem of negative damping undermines the aeroservoelastic stability of floating offshore wind turbines. The negative damping problem is most prevalent around rated wind speed, where the sensitivity of thrust to wind speed is the largest. This paper investigates the implementation of peak shaving, a controller feature that limits the rated thrust by pitching the blades before rated wind speed is reached. Two controller designs are investigated: a de-tuned controller and a nacelle-feedback controller. A time-domain metric is defined, inspired by Lyapunov theory, in order to compute and assess the stability of floating offshore wind turbines. The model of the International Energy Agency 15-MW reference wind turbine mounted on the University of Maine VolturnUS-S floater is simulated in HAWC2 with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory reference open-source controller. Peak shaving is applied to the two controller designs and stability is assessed. According to the chosen metric, peak shaving does not improve the stability of the system. This is due to the trade-off between loads and error tracking: although the loads and displacements in the fore-aft direction of the turbine are reduced, the rotor-speed tracking is poorer, which increases the shaft torsion fatigue load.

17 WIND ENERGY↗