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Randomized Preconditioned Solvers for Strong Constraint 4D-Var Data Assimilation

The Strong Constraint 4D Variational (SC-4DVAR) data assimilation method is widely used in climate and weather applications. SC-4DVAR involves solving a minimization problem to compute the maximum a posteriori estimate, which we tackle using the Gauss-Newton method. The computation of the descent direction is expensive since it involves the solution of a large-scale and potentially ill-conditioned linear system, solved using the preconditioned conjugate gradient (PCG) method. Here, to address this cost, we efficiently construct scalable preconditioners using three different randomization techniques, which all rely on a certain low-rank structure involving the Gauss-Newton Hessian. The proposed techniques come with theoretical guarantees on the condition number, and at the same time, are amenable to parallelization. We also develop an adaptive approach to estimate the sketch size and choose between the reuse or recomputation of the preconditioner. We demonstrate the performance and effectiveness of our methodology on two representative model problems—the Burgers and barotropic vorticity equation—showing a drastic reduction in both the number of PCG iterations and the number of Gauss-Newton Hessian products after including the preconditioner construction cost.

Gauss-Newton

Development and evaluation of a new 4DEnVar-based weakly coupled ocean data assimilation system in E3SMv2

The development, implementation, and evaluation of a new weakly coupled ocean data assimilation (WCODA) system for the fully coupled Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) utilizing the four-dimensional ensemble variational (4DEnVar) method are presented in this study. The 4DEnVar method, based on the dimension-reduced projection four-dimensional variational (DRP-4DVar) approach, replaces the adjoint model with the ensemble technique, thereby reducing computational demands. Monthly mean ocean temperature and salinity data from the EN4.2.1 reanalysis are integrated into the ocean component of E3SMv2 from 1950 to 2021 with the goal of providing realistic initial conditions for decadal predictions and predictability studies. The performance of the WCODA system is assessed using various metrics, including the reduction rate of the cost function, root mean square error (RMSE) differences, correlation differences, and model biases. Results indicate that the WCODA system effectively assimilates the reanalysis data into the climate model, consistently achieving negative reduction rates of the cost function and notable improvements in RMSE and correlation across various ocean layers and regions. Significant enhancements are observed in the upper ocean layers across the majority of global ocean regions, particularly in the north Atlantic, north Pacific, and Indian Ocean. Model biases in sea surface temperature and salinity are also substantially reduced. For sea surface temperature, cold biases in the north Pacific and north Atlantic are diminished by about 1–2 °C, and warm biases in the Southern Ocean are corrected by approximately 1.5–2.5 °C. In terms of salinity, improvements are observed with bias reductions of about 0.5–1 psu in the north Atlantic and north Pacific and up to 1.5 psu in parts of the Southern Ocean. The ultimate goal of the WCODA system is to advance the predictive capabilities of E3SM for subseasonal to decadal climate predictions, thereby supporting research on strategic energy-sector policies and planning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES