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At least 19 records

Towards Surrogate Modeling of Subgrid Turbulent Transport for 3D Radiative Hydrodynamic Simulations of the Quiet Sun

In this work, we investigate the use of deep learn-ing techniques as surrogate models, to enhance the estimationof effects of subgrid turbulent transport for 3D radiatuve hy-drodynamic simulations of the quiet Sun. We develop two dis-tinct 3D Convolutional Neural Networks (3DCNNs) to capturespatio-temporal dependencies in 3D velocity fields, leveragingdifferent activation functions and architectural designs. Thesemodels integrate both averaged velocity vector components andscalar features such as plasma density to enhance predictionaccuracy. Additionally, a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) modelis employed to approximate complex nonlinear relationships,offering a comparison in performance between convolutionaland fully connected architectures. Logarithmic transformationis applied to the targets to handle heavily skewed data, im-proving model performance. All models are compared againsta physics-based Gradient Model. Results show that the 3DCNNmodels excel at approximating Reynolds stress tensors, makingthem a candidate for assisting in producing reduced resolutionsimulations, and thereby reducing computational overheadwhile maintaining higher accuracy than the baseline. Thesefindings demonstrate the potential of deep learning, particu-larly CNNs, to advance scalable and accurate simulations ofsolar dynamics, offering a promising alternative to traditionalturbulence models.

Heliophysics↗

Ozone Measurements and a 3D Chemical Transport Model

We have used our three-dimensional chemical transport model (CTM) to calculate the expected reponse of stratospheric composition over the past 30 years to forcing by chlorine and bromine compounds, solar ultraviolet, and volcanic aerosols. The CTM uses off-line winds and temperatures fiom a 50-year run of the finite volume general circulation model (FVGCM). We compare the total column ozone and the ozone profile fiom the CTM output to a variety of data sources. These include a merged total ozone data set from TOMS and SBUV using the new version 8 algorithm. Total ozone fiom the CTM are compared to ground-station measurements of total ozone at specific locations. Ozone profiles are compared to satellite meausrements fiom SBUV, SAGE, and HALOE. Profiles are also compared to ozonesondes over several locations. The results of the comparisons are quantified by using a time-series statistical analysis to determine trends, solar cycle, and volcanic reponse in both the model and in the data. Initial results indicate that the model responds to forcings in a way that is similar to the observed atmospheric response. The model does seem to be more sensitive to the chlorine and bromine perturbation ihan is the data. Further details and comparisons wiii be discussed.

Stolarski, Richard S.↗

Space Radiation Transport Code Development: 3DHZETRN

The space radiation transport code, HZETRN, has been used extensively for research, vehicle design optimization, risk analysis, and related applications. One of the simplifying features of the HZETRN transport formalism is the straight-ahead approximation, wherein all particles are assumed to travel along a common axis. This reduces the governing equation to one spatial dimension allowing enormous simplification and highly efficient computational procedures to be implemented. Despite the physical simplifications, the HZETRN code is widely used for space applications and has been found to agree well with fully 3D Monte Carlo simulations in many circumstances. Recent work has focused on the development of 3D transport corrections for neutrons and light ions (Z < 2) for which the straight-ahead approximation is known to be less accurate. Within the development of 3D corrections, well-defined convergence criteria have been considered, allowing approximation errors at each stage in model development to be quantified. The present level of development assumes the neutron cross sections have an isotropic component treated within N explicit angular directions and a forward component represented by the straight-ahead approximation. The N = 1 solution refers to the straight-ahead treatment, while N = 2 represents the bi-directional model in current use for engineering design. The figure below shows neutrons, protons, and alphas for various values of N at locations in an aluminum sphere exposed to a solar particle event (SPE) spectrum. The neutron fluence converges quickly in simple geometry with N > 14 directions. The improved code, 3DHZETRN, transports neutrons, light ions, and heavy ions under space-like boundary conditions through general geometry while maintaining a high degree of computational efficiency. A brief overview of the 3D transport formalism for neutrons and light ions is given, and extensive benchmarking results with the Monte Carlo codes Geant4, FLUKA, and PHITS are provided for a variety of boundary conditions and geometries. Improvements provided by the 3D corrections are made clear in the comparisons. Developments needed to connect 3DHZETRN to vehicle design and optimization studies will be discussed. Future theoretical development will relax the forward plus isotropic interaction assumption to more general angular dependence.

Wilson, John W.↗

Analysis of stratospheric ozone, temperature, and minor constituent data

The objective of this research is to use available satellite measurements of temperature and constituent concentrations to test the conceptual picture of stratospheric chemistry and transport. This was originally broken down into two sub-goals: first, to use the constituent data to search for critical tests of our understanding of stratospheric chemistry and second, to examine constituent transport processes emphasizing interactions with chemistry on various time scales. A third important goal which has evolved is to use the available solar backscattered ultraviolet (SBUV) and Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) data from Nimbus 7 to describe the morphology of recent changes in Antarctic and global ozone with emphasis on searching for constraints to theories. The major effort now being pursued relative to the two original goals is our effort as a theoretical team for the Arctic Airborne Stratospheric Expedition (AASE). Our effort for the AASE is based on the 3D transport and chemistry model at Goddard. Our goal is to use this model to place the results from the mission data in a regional and global context. Specifically, we set out to make model runs starting in late December and running through March of 1989, both with and without heterogeneous chemistry. The transport is to be carried out using dynamical fields from a 4D data assimilation model being developed under separate funding from this task. We have successfully carried out a series of single constituent transport experiments. One of the things demonstrated by these runs was the difficulty in obtaining observed low N2O abundances in the vortex without simultaneously obtaining very high ozone values. Because the runs start in late December, this difficulty arises in the attempt to define consistent initial conditions for the 3D model. To accomplish a consistent set of initial conditions, we are using the 2D photochemistry-transport model of Jackman and Douglass and mapping in potential temperature, potential vorticity space as developed by Schoeberl and coworkers.

Stolarski, Richard S.↗

Evaluation of the MOCAGE Chemistry Transport Model during the ICARTT/ITOP Experiment

We evaluate the Meteo-France global chemistry transport 3D model MOCAGE (MOdele de Chimie Atmospherique a Grande Echelle) using the important set of aircraft measurements collected during the ICARRT/ITOP experiment. This experiment took place between US and Europe during summer 2004 (July 15-August 15). Four aircraft were involved in this experiment providing a wealth of chemical data in a large area including the North East of US and western Europe. The model outputs are compared to the following species of which concentration is measured by the aircraft: OH, H2O2, CO, NO, NO2, PAN, HNO3, isoprene, ethane, HCHO and O3. Moreover, to complete this evaluation at larger scale, we used also satellite data such as SCIAMACHY NO2 and MOPITT CO. Interestingly, the comprehensive dataset allowed us to evaluate separately the model representation of emissions, transport and chemical processes. Using a daily emission source of biomass burning, we obtain a very good agreement for CO while the evaluation of NO2 points out incertainties resulting from inaccurate ratio of emission factors of NOx/CO. Moreover, the chemical behavior of O3 is satisfactory as discussed in the paper.

Bousserez, N.↗

Three-Dimensional Model Synthesis of the Global Methane Cycle

A synthesis of the global methane cycle is presented to attempt to generate an accurate global methane budget. Methane-flux measurements, energy data, and agricultural statistics are merged with databases of land-surface characteristics and anthropogenic activities. The sources and sinks of methane are estimated based on atmospheric methane composition and variations, and a global 3D transport model simulates the corresponding atmospheric responses. The geographic and seasonal variations of candidate budgets are compared with observational data, and the available observations are used to constrain the plausible methane budgets. The preferred budget includes annual destruction rates and annual emissions for various sources. The lack of direct flux measurements in the regions of many of these fluxes makes the unique determination of each term impossible. OH oxidation is found to be the largest single term, although more measurements of this and other terms are recommended.

Fung, I.↗

Three-Dimensional Distribution of a Major Desert Dust Outbreak over East Asia in March 2008 Derived from IASI Satellite Observations

We describe the daily evolution of the three-dimensional (3D) structure of a major dust outbreak initiated by an extratropical cyclone over East Asia in early March 2008, using new aerosol retrievals derived from satellite observations of IASI (Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer). A novel auto-adaptive Tikhonov-Phillips-type approach called AEROIASI is used to retrieve vertical profiles of dust extinction coefficient at 10 microns for most cloud-free IASI pixels, both over land and ocean. The dust vertical distribution derived from AEROIASI is shown to agree remarkably well with along-track transects of Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) spaceborne lidar vertical profiles (mean biases less than 110 meters, correlation of 0.95, and precision of 260 meters for mean altitudes of the dust layers). AEROIASI allows the daily characterization of the 3D transport pathways across East Asia of two dust plumes originating from the Gobi and North Chinese deserts. From AEROIASI retrievals, we provide evidence that (i) both dust plumes are transported over the Beijing region and the Yellow Sea as elevated layers above a shallow boundary layer, (ii) as they progress eastward, the dust layers are lifted up by the ascending motions near the core of the extratropical cyclone, and (iii) when being transported over the warm waters of the Japan Sea, turbulent mixing in the deep marine boundary layer leads to high dust concentrations down to the surface. AEROIASI observations and model simulations also show that the progression of the dust plumes across East Asia is tightly related to the advancing cold front of the extratropical cyclone.

Cuesta, Juan↗

Surrogate Modeling of Subgrid Turbulent Transport Based on 3D Radiative Hydrodynamic Simulations of the Quiet Sun

Turbulent Transport: Plays a critical role in astrophysical plasmas, such as the solar interior, spanning multiple scales and challenging traditional modeling approaches. Objective: Develop machine learning (ML) models—MLP and CNN—to predict subgrid Reynolds stress tensors from StellarBox 3D simulations of the solar atmosphere. Benchmarking: Compare ML-driven models against physics-based Gradient and Smagorinsky approaches.

SMD↗

TOMS and SBUV Data: Comparison to 3D Chemical-Transport Model Results

We have updated our merged ozone data (MOD) set using the TOMS data from the new version 8 algorithm. We then analyzed these data for contributions from solar cycle, volcanoes, QBO, and halogens using a standard statistical time series model. We have recently completed a hindcast run of our 3D chemical-transport model for the same years. This model uses off-line winds from the finite-volume GCM, a full stratospheric photochemistry package, and time-varying forcing due to halogens, solar uv, and volcanic aerosols. We will report on a parallel analysis of these model results using the same statistical time series technique as used for the MOD data.

Stolarski, Richard S.↗

Momentum Transport: 2D and 3D Cloud Resolving Model Simulations

The major objective of this study is to investigate the momentum budgets associated with several convective systems that developed during the TOGA COARE IOP (west Pacific warm pool region) and GATE (east Atlantic region). The tool for this study is the improved Goddard Cumulas Ensemble (GCE) model which includes a 3-class ice-phase microphysical scheme, explicit cloud radiative interactive processes and air-sea interactive surface processes. The model domain contains 256 x 256 grid points (with 2 km resolution) in the horizontal and 38 grid points (to a depth of 22 km) in the vertical. The 2D domain has 1024 grid points. The simulations were performed over a 7-day time period (December 19-26, 1992, for TOGA COARE and September 1-7, 1994 for GATE). Cyclic literal boundary conditions are required for this type of long-term integration. Two well organized squall systems (TOGA, COARE February 22, 1993, and GATE September 12, 1994) were also simulated using the 3D GCE model. Only 9 h simulations were required to cover the life time of the squall systems. the lateral boundary conditions were open for these two squall systems simulations. the following will be examined: (1) the momentum budgets in the convective and stratiform regions, (2) the relationship between momentum transport and cloud organization (i.e., well organized squall lines versus less organized convective), (3) the differences and similarities in momentum transport between 2D and 3D simulated convective systems, and (4) the differences and similarities in momentum budgets between cloud systems simulated with open and cyclic lateral boundary conditions. Preliminary results indicate that there are only small differences between 2D and 3D simulated momentum budgets. Major differences occur, however, between momentum budgets associated with squall systems simulated using different lateral boundary conditions.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

Evaluation of Stratospheric Transport in New 3D Models Using the Global Modeling Initiative Grading Criteria

The Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) Team developed objective criteria for model evaluation in order to identify the best representation of the stratosphere. This work created a method to quantitatively and objectively discriminate between different models. In the original GMI study, 3 different meteorological data sets were used to run an offline chemistry and transport model (CTM). Observationally-based grading criteria were derived and applied to these simulations and various aspects of stratospheric transport were evaluated; grades were assigned. Here we report on the application of the GMI evaluation criteria to CTM simulations integrated with a new assimilated wind data set and a new general circulation model (GCM) wind data set. The Finite Volume Community Climate Model (FV-CCM) is a new GCM developed at Goddard which uses the NCAR CCM physics and the Lin and Rood advection scheme. The FV-Data Assimilation System (FV-DAS) is a new data assimilation system which uses the FV-CCM as its core model. One year CTM simulations of 2.5 degrees longitude by 2 degrees latitude resolution were run for each wind data set. We present the evaluation of temperature and annual transport cycles in the lower and middle stratosphere in the two new CTM simulations. We include an evaluation of high latitude transport which was not part of the original GMI criteria. Grades for the new simulations will be compared with those assigned during the original GMT evaluations and areas of improvement will be identified.

Strahan, Susan E.↗

3D Space Radiation Transport in a Shielded ICRU Tissue Sphere

A computationally efficient 3DHZETRN code capable of simulating High Charge (Z) and Energy (HZE) and light ions (including neutrons) under space-like boundary conditions with enhanced neutron and light ion propagation was recently developed for a simple homogeneous shield object. Monte Carlo benchmarks were used to verify the methodology in slab and spherical geometry, and the 3D corrections were shown to provide significant improvement over the straight-ahead approximation in some cases. In the present report, the new algorithms with well-defined convergence criteria are extended to inhomogeneous media within a shielded tissue slab and a shielded tissue sphere and tested against Monte Carlo simulation to verify the solution methods. The 3D corrections are again found to more accurately describe the neutron and light ion fluence spectra as compared to the straight-ahead approximation. These computationally efficient methods provide a basis for software capable of space shield analysis and optimization.

Wilson, John W.↗

Towards a 3D Space Radiation Transport Code

High-speed computational procedures for space radiation shielding have relied on asymptotic expansions in terms of the off-axis scatter and replacement of the general geometry problem by a collection of flat plates. This type of solution was derived for application to human rated systems in which the radius of the shielded volume is large compared to the off-axis diffusion limiting leakage at lateral boundaries. Over the decades these computational codes are relatively complete and lateral diffusion effects are now being added. The analysis for developing a practical full 3D space shielding code is presented.

Wilson, J. W.↗

Modeling the Impact of Drizzle and 3D Cloud Structure on Remote Sensing of Effective Radius

Remote sensing of cloud particle size with passive sensors like MODIS is an important tool for cloud microphysical studies. As a measure of the radiatively relevant droplet size, effective radius can be retrieved with different combinations of visible through shortwave infrared channels. MODIS observations sometimes show significantly larger effective radii in marine boundary layer cloud fields derived from the 1.6 and 2.1 pm channel observations than for 3.7 pm retrievals. Possible explanations range from 3D radiative transport effects and sub-pixel cloud inhomogeneity to the impact of drizzle formation on the droplet distribution. To investigate the potential influence of these factors, we use LES boundary layer cloud simulations in combination with 3D Monte Carlo simulations of MODIS observations. LES simulations of warm cloud spectral microphysics for cases of marine stratus and broken stratocumulus, each for two different values of cloud condensation nuclei density, produce cloud structures comprising droplet size distributions with and without drizzle size drops. In this study, synthetic MODIS observations generated from 3D radiative transport simulations that consider the full droplet size distribution will be generated for each scene. The operational MODIS effective radius retrievals will then be applied to the simulated reflectances and the results compared with the LES microphysics.

Platnick, Steven↗

Radiation transport around axisymmetric blunt body vehicles using a modified differential approximation

A moment method for computing 3D radiative transport in axisymmetric thermochemical nonequilibrium flows is developed. The method uses the P-1 approximation to reduce the governing system of integro-differential equations to a coupled set of partial differential equations. The numerical solution of these equations for realistic variations of the radiation properties is discussed. Representative results from the method are shown and compared to tangent slab calculations. The agreement between the transport methods is found to be about 10 percent in the stagnation region, with the difference increasing along the flank of the vehicle.

Hartung, Lin C.↗

Vertical Distribution of Saharan Dust from the Goddard Three Dimensional Transport Model: Comparison with LITE Data

Spatial distributions of Saharan dust are simulated by the Goddard 3D chemistry transport model driven by meteorological fields from the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System, GEOS-2 DAS. An aerosol module accounts for gravitational settling and the aerosol source function is based on surface moisture content and wind speed. The simulated aerosol fields are compared with Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) by P. Ginoux in this session. The main focus is how ventilation of the assimilation winds will impact the simulated aerosol vertical distribution. Excessive ventilation would transport too much aerosol in the upper troposphere and lead to errors in the long range transport as well as errors in any radiative forcing calculations derived from the simulated aerosol fields. Simulated aerosol fields using GEOS-1 DAS wind fields for September 1994 will be compared with lidar observations during the Lidar In-space Technology Experiment (LITE). The lidar return signal clearly delineates the vertical extent and horizontal variability of the aerosol layer allowing rigorous comparison with the simulated fields. A second focus is the simulation of aerosol scavenging due to moist processes. Three-dimensional precipitation fields can be derived from two possible sources: Assimilated precipitation fields from GEOS-DAS or fields obtained from the Special Sensor Microwave/imager (SSM/1). Of interest is the sensitivity of the modeled aerosol fields to the different precipitation fields driving the moist scavenging module.

Weaver, Clark J.↗

The Role of Lightning in Controlling Interannual Variability of Tropical Tropospheric Ozone and OH and its Implications for Climate

Nitrogen oxides (NO(x) = NO + NO2) produced by lightning make a major contribution to the production of the dominant tropospheric oxidants (OH and ozone). These oxidants control the lifetime of many trace gases including long-lived greenhouse gases, and control the source-receptor relationship of inter-hemispheric pollutant transport. Lightning is affected by meteorological variability, and therefore represents a potentially important tropospheric chemistry-climate feedback. Understanding how interannual variability (IAV) in lightning affects IAV in ozone and OH in the recent past is important if we are to predict how oxidant levels may change in a future warmer climate. However, lightning parameterizations for chemical transport models (CTMs) show low skill in reproducing even climatological distributions of flash rates from the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and the Optical Transient Detector (OTD) satellite instruments. We present an optimized regional scaling algorithm for CTMs that enables sufficient sampling of spatiotemporally sparse satellite lightning data from LIS to constrain the spatial, seasonal, and interannual variability of tropical lightning. We construct a monthly time series of lightning flash rates for 1998-2010 and 35degS-35degN, and find a correlation of IAV in total tropical lightning with El Nino. We use the IAV-constraint to drive a 9-year hindcast (1998-2006) of the GEOS-Chem 3D chemical transport model, and find the increased IAV in LNO(x) drives increased IAV in ozone and OH, improving the model fs ability to simulate both. Although lightning contributes more than any other emission source to IAV in ozone, we find ozone more sensitive to meteorology, particularly convective transport. However, we find IAV in OH to be highly sensitive to lightning NO(x), and the constraint improves the ability of the model to capture the temporal behavior of OH anomalies inferred from observations of methyl chloroform and other gases. The sensitivity of OH is explained using photochemical reaction rates which show a "magnification" effect of the initial lightning NO perturbation on OH primary production, HO(x) recycling, and OH loss frequencies. This influence on OH may represent a negative feedback, if lightning increases in a warming world..

Murray, Lee T.↗

Testing the PV-Theta Mapping Technique in a 3-D CTM Model Simulation

Mapping lower stratospheric ozone into potential vorticity (PV)- potential temperature (Theta) coordinates is a common technique employed to analyze sparse data sets. Ozone transformed into a flow-following dynamical coordinate system is insensitive to meteorological variations. Therefore data from a wide range of times/locations can be compared, so long as the measurements were made in the same airmass (as defined by PV). Moreover, once a relationship between ozone and PV/Theta is established, a full 3D ozone field can be estimated from this relationship and the 3D analyzed PV field. However, ozone data mapped in this fashion can be hampered by noisy PV fields, or "mis-matches" in the resolution and/or exact location of the ozone and PV measurements. In this study, we investigate the PV-ozone relationship using output from a recent 50-year run of the Goddard 3D chemical transport model (CTM). Model constituents are transported using off-line dynamics from the finite volume general circulation model (FVGCM). By using the internally consistent model PV and ozone fields, we minimize noise due to mis-matching and resolution issues. We calculate correlations between model ozone and PV throughout the stratosphere, and test the sensitivity of the technique to initial data resolution. To do this we degrade the model data to that of various satellite instruments, then compare the mapped fields derived from the sub-sampled data to the full resolution model data. With these studies we can determine appropriate limits for the PV-theta mapping technique in latitude, altitude, and as a function of original data resolution.

Frith, Stacey M.↗