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Retail Electricity Price and Cost Trends: 2024 Update [Slides]

Berkeley Lab’s "Retail Electricity Price and Cost Trends" summarizes recent trends in retail electricity price levels and price drivers in the United States. This report is intended to serve as a reference document for the diverse set of decision-makers impacted by changes in retail electricity prices and to provide a factual basis for assessing recent changes in retail electricity prices and key underlying drivers. National, regional, and state trends are reported for 2019 through 2023 using publicly-available data for: -Average retail electricity prices, retail sales, and utility revenues -Utility capital expenditures, operations and maintenance costs, and fuel and purchased power costs -Retail electricity sales impacts from behind-the-meter resources The report also includes qualitative case studies highlighting recent and/or regionally-specific issues contributing significantly to retail electricity price trends

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY

FECM/NETL CO 2 Saline Storage Cost Model (2024): User’s Manual

The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management (FECM), in collaboration with the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), has developed the FECM/NETL CO 2 Saline Storage Cost Model (CO2_S_COM). This Excel-based tool provides a comprehensive framework for estimating the costs and breakeven prices associated with storing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in deep saline formations. Designed from the perspective of a CO 2 storage site owner, the CO2_S_COM incorporates four integrated modules—project management, financial analysis, activity cost estimation, and geological evaluation—to deliver fast, robust, and actionable insights for evaluating project finances. This is the user's manual for CO2_S_COM. The model may be accessed at this link: FECM/NETL CO2 Saline Storage Cost Model CO2_S_COM 2024 (v4) - Submissions - EDX

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Annual Supply Chain for Photovoltaics (ASC-PV) in the United States: 2024 in Review

This report analyzes U.S. PV and BESS supply chains and costs in 2024, for PV module and battery technologies, structural and electrical balance of system (BOS) components, as well as PV recycling. The report concludes with an analysis of technology installation trends, government support for domestic manufacturing, manufacturing jobs, and the domestic content of PV systems installed in the United States in 2024.

14 SOLAR ENERGY

FECM/NETL CO2 Saline Storage Cost Model CO2_S_COM 2024 (v4)

The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management (FECM), in collaboration with the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), has developed the FECM/NETL CO2 Saline Storage Cost Model (CO2_S_COM). This Excel-based tool provides a comprehensive framework for estimating the costs and breakeven prices associated with storing carbon dioxide (CO2) in deep saline formations. Designed from the perspective of a CO2 storage site owner, the CO2_S_COM incorporates four integrated modules—project management, financial analysis, activity cost estimation, and geological evaluation—to deliver fast, robust and actionable insights for screening project finances.

CO2 storage

Supply Chain for Photovoltaics in the United States: 2024 in Review

Solar photovoltaic (PV) and battery energy storage system (BESS) technologies are two immediately available options for meeting U.S. electricity demands, which are increasing due to expansion of loads from end uses including data centers, buildings, vehicles, and factories. Globally, PV and BESS supply chains are dominated by products manufactured in China and elsewhere by Chinese companies. However, U.S. PV and BESS manufacturing have recently grown, with some capacity in each step of the PV supply chain, albeit not enough to currently meet demand with domestic manufacturing alone. This study analyzes U.S. PV supply chains and costs in 2024, for the crystalline silicon and cadmium telluride module supply chains. The full report additionally addresses the PV balance of system, inverter and BESS supply chains. The study concludes with an analysis of technology installation trends, government support for domestic manufacturing, manufacturing jobs, and the domestic content of PV systems installed in the United States in 2024.

14 SOLAR ENERGY

Techno-Economic, Feasibility, and Life Cycle Analysis of Renewable Propane: 2025 Update

To clarify the current and future landscape for renewable propane (RP) production, this work evaluates the value proposition of recovering RP from existing and planned hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA) biorefineries and surveys emerging technologies under development or deployment. HEFA biorefineries co-produce a propane-rich fuel gas stream, normally used to meet HEFA process heat requirements, from which propane can be recovered and sold to create an additional revenue stream alongside liquid transportation fuels such as renewable diesel (RD) and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). This report updates and extends a 2022 analysis of RP recovery from HEFA facilities by escalating capital and operating costs to 2024 prices, incorporating recent policy developments (including the Section 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit), evaluating RP recovery for both RD- and SAF-focused HEFA facilities at two scales (3,000 and 75,000 barrels per day of feedstock), and quantifying the impact of RP recovery on HEFA liquid-fuel carbon intensity (CI) and associated tax credits using the 45ZCF-GREET model. For a 3,000 BPD RD-focused HEFA facility, approximately 3.5 million gallons per year (MGPY) of RP can be recovered; in this base case, the estimated payback period is 18 months based on the total installed cost of the RP recovery equipment and 36 months based on the total capital investment for the entire RP recovery project. The payback period is slightly shorter for the analogous SAF-focused configuration (approximately 4.3 MGPY RP). Sensitivity analysis shows that CAPEX magnitude, RP recovery plant scale, and CI-driven tax credit valuations are the dominant determinants of project viability. RP recovery may increase the CI of HEFA liquid fuels, which can reduce liquid-fuel tax credits (a key revenue stream for the HEFA biorefinery) and lengthen payback periods. However, RP recovery generally remains economically favorable across a wide range of plausible scenarios and market conditions. The report also summarizes emerging pathways that could expand future RP supply.

09 BIOMASS FUELS

Q1-2024 Solar Cost Benchmarks

Each year, the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Solar Energy Technologies Office (SETO) and its national laboratory partners develop cost benchmarks for U.S. solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. These benchmarks track progress toward reducing solar costs and guide R&D priorities. Unlike typical studies that report only $/W, SETO uses intrinsic units (e.g., $/m² for mounting structures) to better capture how technology improvements such as module efficiency would impact system costs. This allows flexible modeling where inputs can vary significantly to assess cost sensitivity. Costs are reported in two ways: Minimum Sustainable Price (MSP): Long term, financially viable price under stable market conditions. Modeled Market Price (MMP): Actual market price, influenced by short term distortions such as tariffs or subsidies. Three national labs collect cost data from industry stakeholders, ensuring no duplication in outreach to stakeholders. Data reflects real transactions (primarily from Q1) and is weighted based on the number of sources per cost element. The PV System Cost Model (PVSCM) divides total installed system cost into eight categories: 1. Module (PV) 2. Inverter 3. Energy Storage System (ESS) 4. Structural BOS (SBOS) 5. Electrical BOS (EBOS) 6. Fieldwork 7. Office work 8. Other (developer/EPC costs) The first five are hardware costs, while the last three are soft costs. Each category includes fixed and variable cost components, where “size” depends on context (e.g., manufacturing capacity for modules vs. system capacity for installation costs). Variable costs are expressed using appropriate intrinsic units. The model reflects the owner’s upfront overnight capital cost, excluding tax credits. Tariffs and subsidies are treated as temporary market distortions affecting MMP but not MSP. PVSCM is implemented in Excel, where cost elements are aggregated into total system cost. Additional sheets handle unit conversions and operation & maintenance (O&M), with O&M costs levelized over the system’s lifetime.

14 SOLAR ENERGY

National Cost-Effectiveness of the Residential Provisions of the 2024 IECC

This analysis focuses on single-family and low-rise multifamily residential buildings based on the International Energy Conservation Code (IECC). The IECC is developed by the International Code Council (ICC) on a 3-year cycle through a public development and consensus process. While proponents of code changes often include the energy and cost-effectiveness criteria for their respective code change, the IECC process does not include an energy or cost-effectiveness analysis of the entire edition of the code. PNNL evaluated the cost effectiveness of the changes in the prescriptive and mandatory residential provisions of the 2024 edition of the IECC, hereafter referred as the 2024 IECC, compared to those in the prior edition, the 2021 IECC. The simulated performance path and the Energy Rating Index (ERI) path (introduced in the 2015 IECC) are not considered in this analysis due to the wide variation in building construction characteristics that are allowed.

2024 IECC

Workbooks for Cambium 2024 Data

These workbooks contain a subset of cost and emissions data from the 2024 Cambium datasets, with levelization calculations to assist users in translating Cambium’s year-over-year values to a representative value for a user-specified project timeline. These workbooks provide modeled data for 18 GEA regions covering the contiguous United States, projected forward through 2050. Mappings of these regions to ZIP codes and counties is given within this workbook in the corresponding tabs. For the full Cambium 2024 data sets, see the Cambium 2024 project on NREL's Scenario Viewer. For more details on input assumptions and methodology see the associated report: Cambium 2024 Scenario Descriptions and Documentation. Users are advised to review section 4 of the report, which discusses limitations and caveats of the data. This data is planned to be updated annually. Information on the latest versions can be found on the NREL energy analysis page on Cambium.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY

Reported Energy and Cost Savings from the DOE ESPC IDIQ Program: FY 2024

Energy Savings Performance Contracts (ESPCs)are a contractual mechanism that allow a federal agency to procure energy savings and facility improvements without upfront capital costs to reduce costs and resiliency. ESPCs are covered under FAR Part 23.2, and 42 USC § 8287. Section 8287(a)(2)(A) of Title 42 of the U.S. Code requires that each energy savings performance contract (ESPC) undergo an annual energy audit, resulting in a separate audit report for every project. The objective of the present report is to compile and analyze all annual ESPC audit reports issued between October 1, 2023, and September 30, 2024, for projects awarded under Generations 1, 2, and 3 of DOE’s ESPC IDIQ contracts. During this period, 205 measurement and verification (M&V) reports were produced for 200 projects; the total number of reports exceeds the number of projects because some projects generated more than one report(for example, a few projects measure savings twice per year and produce two audit reports annually, each covering a different six-month period). By aggregating the results from these individual audits, the report determines the portfolio-wide realization rate of energy and cost savings for all active ESPC projects awarded under DOE’s IDIQ program. For all 205audit reports, sufficient information was available to compare project-level estimated, reported, and guaranteed cost savings. Reported cost savings accounted for ESCO verified savings per each project’s M&V plan. The total reported cost savings for the period addressed were $\$$647.8million,compared with the total guaranteed cost savings of $\$$601.6million. On average across the reported projects: •ESPC contractors guaranteed 92.8% of the estimated cost savings• projects reported achieving 100.0% of the estimated cost savings• projects reported achieving 107.7% of the guaranteed cost savings. The M&V performed for the period indicated adjustments for government operations and maintenance impacts to savings amount to$\$$43.9millionandcould be restored with the original operational parameters for impacted projects. Accounting for this potential cost savings impact, these projects still realized 100.4% of the guaranteed cost savings. The information on estimated and reported energy savings was collected and compared for all 205of the reports examined. Based on site energy, estimated savings totaled 14.88million MMBtu, and reported savings were 15.33million MMBtu; 3.1% greater than the estimated energy savings. All of the reports examined contained sufficient information to calculate source energy savings. Based on site-adjusted source energy, total estimated energy savings were 20.90 million MMBtu, and reported savings were 21.22million MMBtu, 101.5% of the estimated energy savings. For water savings, the estimated savings were 11,539,055 kGal and the reported savings were 13,315,930 kGal. This means 1,776,875 kGal more water was saved than estimated, which is about 15% higher than the estimate. These results indicate that, overall, the reported energy savings slightly exceeded the estimated values, while estimated water savings significantly exceeded estimated values, suggesting that the projects achieved greater cost savings than originally projected. The total annual expense for the ESCOs to perform annual M&V audits and reporting was $\$$10.02million. Through this effort, $\$$647.8 million in annual cost savings was verified. The M&V results indicated that $\$$43.9 million of these verified savings reflected adjustments due to government operations A-6and maintenance impacts, which could be restored under the original operational parameters for the affected projects. These findings show the value of M&V that only costs 1.7%of the guaranteed cost savings to ensure guarantees are met.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY

Reported Energy and Cost Savings from the DOE ESPC IDIQ Program: FY 2024

Energy Savings Performance Contracts (ESPCs) are a contractual mechanism that allow a federal agency to procure energy savings and facility improvements without upfront capital costs to reduce costs and enhance mission resiliency. ESPCs are covered under FAR Part 23.2, and 42 USC § 8287. Section 8287(a)(2)(A) of Title 42 of the U.S. Code requires that each energy savings performance contract (ESPC) undergo an annual energy audit, resulting in a separate audit report for every project. The objective of the present report is to compile and analyze all annual ESPC audit reports issued between October 1, 2023, and September 30, 2024, for projects awarded under Generations 1, 2, and 3 of DOE’s ESPC IDIQ contracts. During this period, 205 measurement and verification (M&V) reports were produced for 200 projects; the total number of reports exceeds the number of projects because some projects generated more than one report (for example, a few projects measure savings twice per year and produce two audit reports annually, each covering a different six-month period). By aggregating the results from these individual audits, the report determines the portfolio-wide realization rate of energy and cost savings for all active ESPC projects awarded under DOE’s IDIQ program.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY

Documenting 15 Years of Reductions in U.S. Solar Photovoltaic System Costs

The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Solar Energy Technologies Office (SETO) has played a key role in reducing PV system costs by supporting essential and high-impact research, development, and deployment (RD&D) activities. SETO's efforts go beyond improving technology and hardware innovations to tackle soft costs like installation labor, permitting, and customer acquisition. This holistic focus ensures that solar energy remains a viable, scalable solution for combating climate change and achieving the nation's clean energy goals. This National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) report highlights over a decade of transformative advancements in PV system technology and its cost reductions from 2010 to 2024, documenting a remarkable trajectory in line with the goals set forth by SETO. By analyzing benchmark configurations across different photovoltaic (PV) sectors over years, this work provides industry stakeholders with a comprehensive understanding of cost trends and their impact on Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) targets established under the 2010 SunShot Initiative.

14 SOLAR ENERGY

Generator Interconnection Costs to the Transmission System in non-ISO Balancing Authorities [Slides]

Electric transmission system operators—including Independent System Operators (ISOs), Regional Transmission Organizations (RTOs), and utilities—require proposed power plants to undergo a series of interconnection studies before connecting to the grid. These studies assess what transmission upgrades or new infrastructure may be necessary and assign the associated costs to the project. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory has compiled, aggregated, and cleaned interconnection cost data, originally for ISOs/RTOs, and now for five non-ISO Balancing Authorities: PacifiCorp, Bonneville Power Authority, Duke Energy Progress, Duke Energy Carolinas and Duke Energy Florida. Insufficient transparency in interconnection cost data may contribute to rapidly expanding interconnection queues, with active queue capacities tripling between 2020 and 2024 in the studied BAs. Most projects withdraw after receiving high interconnection cost estimates. Interconnection costs have increased since the early 2000s, with average costs for "complete" projects reaching $194/kW between 2018 and 2024. Active queue projects and withdrawn projects incur substantially higher costs, primarily due to rising network upgrade costs. Recent interconnection costs in non-ISO balancing authorities are higher than in ISO regions, potentially due to a greater willingness to pay among developers. Utility-scale solar, wind, and storage projects have interconnection costs that exceed those for natural gas. However, when focusing on projects that do not withdraw from the queue, the interconnection costs for these technologies are more similar to natural gas projects. Other key findings include: (1) Larger generation projects benefit from lower proportional interconnection costs, (2) capacity transmission service (NRIS) often requires additional network investments, and (3) projects with high network upgrade costs are often clustered geographically. The dataset includes results from 2,104 interconnection studies conducted between 2000 and 2024, covering projects that are operational, withdrawn, or still progressing through the study process. The Excel file contains (a) the complete project-level interconnection cost dataset, and (b) seven additional tabs summarizing cost metrics across dimensions such as time, market structure, cost category (point of interconnection vs. broader network upgrades), fuel type, service type (ERIS vs. NRIS), generator size, and geography.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Annual Technology Baseline (ATB): The 2024 Transportation Update

The Transportation Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) provides detailed cost and performance data, estimates, and assumptions for vehicle and fuel technologies in the United States. It includes current and projected estimates for vehicle technologies as well as fuels, and it details the assumptions used to calculate those costs, such as gas and electricity prices, discount rates, and vehicle miles traveled. The 2024 update added more biofuels pathways to align with pathways used in the Biomass Scenario Model.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSI

Evaluating opportunity for distributed wind energy in rural and agricultural areas

Wind energy is among the most mature renewable energy technologies, accounting for 11% of the current US electricity generation in 2024, with the lowest average levelized cost. While it is known that substantial opportunity exists for further development, a key question has been where wind energy is best suited compared to other technologies. This study leverages an immense dataset of parcel-resolved technoeconomic potential for the contiguous United States, focusing on distributed wind (DW) energy—a configuration where one or more turbines, typically 30–60 m in height are used to satisfy nearby energy needs. The analysis is conducted at multiple spatial scales and considers land use, crop land, census, and incentive program data to determine the most opportune areas for market development. The results show that rural, agricultural and residential areas are most suited to DW. Connection type (in front of, or behind the meter) and regulations determine the best application, while siting constraints, economics, demand and the wind resource determines the optimal size of turbine.

17 WIND ENERGY

Modeling the Cost of CO2 Saline Storage on a Regional and National Level

This poster presents the results of using the FECM/NETL CO2 Saline Storage Cost Model (CO2_S_COM) to evaluate the cost of saline storage in potential storage formations in the lower 48 U.S. states. Costs were calculated for 314 saline storage formations in the CO2_S_COM geologic property database. These results were used to generate national and regional cost-supply curves. In addition, a sensitivity analysis was performed that quantified how modifying several input variables in CO2_S_COM affected the costs. Poster presented (virtual) at the 2024 AGU Conference, December 9-13, 2024, Washington, D.C.

Morgan, David [NETL]

Updated Natural Gas Pathways in R&D GREET 2024 Rev.1

Natural gas (NG) is a relatively low-cost fossil fuel with vast infrastructure in the United States (U.S.) making it easier to transport and store compared to other fossil fuels such as coal and petroleum. In 2023, the U.S. consumed 32.5 trillion cubic feet or 33.6 Quad Btu of NG, accounting for 36% of the nation’s total primary energy consumption. NG is commonly used for electricity generation, industrial applications, commercial and residential activities and transportation purposes, as shown in Figure 1. This widespread reliance on NG underscores the need to assess its full environmental impact, requiring careful analysis of the entire supply chain from production (i.e., recovery, gathering and boosting [G&B], and processing of raw gas) to final delivery to end users (e.g., via pipelines).

03 NATURAL GAS

BT23 Updates for Med $70

BT23 update using the 2025 baseline and starting results in 2024 for Med $70 with updated budgets. Cost updates include: 1) Increased the nitrogen application for the following crops: willow, camelina, carinata, pennycress, and willow. 2) Removed roundup during establishment for the following crops: camelina. 3) Harvest costs were updated because the combine width was adjusted. This affected the following crops: barley, camelina, carinata, corn, oat, pennycress, rice, sorghum, soybean, and wheat. 4) Harvest cost was updated with biomass sorghum because an additional tractor was added to pull the high dump forage wagon, and the wagon width was adjusted to not constrain the harvest operation with the combine. 5) Added poplar in the ag budget database for regions 1 and 13.

agricultural crop