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At least 1,783 records · Page 99

Transportation in net-zero emissions futures: Insights from the EMF-37 model intercomparison study

Transportation is currently the largest source of U.S. anthropogenic CO 2 emissions, at about a third of the total. Achieving net-zero emissions by mid-century will require substantial reductions in transportation emissions across passenger and freight travel. Here we leverage a model intercomparison study to explore the role of transportation in scenarios achieving net-zero economy-wide CO 2 emissions by 2050. We find the transport sector is poised to play the most significant role in reducing demand-side emissions, mostly driven by technology substitution, as modeling results suggest a limited role for mode shifting and for reduced use of personal car travel in the U.S. Among various technology solutions, models show agreement that passenger on-road vehicles will largely transition to electric vehicles (EVs), while solutions to decarbonize heavier travel modes are more diverse and include greater use of liquid biofuels and hydrogen. Research should continue to investigate the evolution of on-road electrification, the role of biofuels and hydrogen across heavier travel modes, and the role of mode shifting and travel behavior change to support personal transportation decarbonization at national and regional scales to temper the rapid growth in clean fuel and electricity demand.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Response of the Current Climate to Land‐Ocean Contrasts in Parameterized Cumulus Entrainment

Abstract Cumulus entrainment substantially regulates the earth's climate but remains poorly constrained in global climate models. Recent studies have shown that cumulus bulk entrainment (or dilution) is particularly sensitive to continentality, with the entrainment rate in simulated maritime cumuli nearly double that of continental cumuli. This study examines the impacts of such land–ocean entrainment contrasts on the current climate using 21‐year simulations with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's High‐Resolution Atmospheric Model (HIRAM). In response to a 25% reduction in the HIRAM entrainment parameter c 0 over land, precipitation over tropical land regions increases by up to 40%. Along with directly facilitating enhanced convective precipitation, this c 0 reduction induces an increase in soil moisture, which may contribute to a further enhancement of convective precipitation over land. A 25% c 0 reduction over the oceans leads to more widespread modifications of convection patterns, with the strongest signal in the tropical Pacific. Deep convection shifts upstream (eastward) there, inducing enhanced large‐scale ascent over the central Pacific with compensating subsidence and reduced humidity and precipitation over the western Pacific (WP). Land–ocean variations in c 0 project onto the Pacific Walker circulation, with the 25% land reduction strengthening it by 4% and the 25% ocean reduction weakening it by 14%. These changes are driven by variations in convective and large‐scale stratiform heating over the Pacific. While reduced c 0 over land enhances diabatic heating in the Maritime Continent to strengthen the Walker circulation, reduced c 0 over the oceans decreases diabatic heating in the WP to weaken the Walker circulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An industrial policy framework for transforming energy and emissions intensive industries towards zero emissions

The target of zero emissions sets a new standard for industry and industrial policy. Industrial policy in the twenty-first century must aim to achieve zero emissions in the energy and emissions intensive industries. Sectors such as steel, cement, and chemicals have so far largely been sheltered from the effects of climate policy. A major shift is needed, from contemporary industrial policy that mainly protects industry to policy strategies that transform the industry. For this purpose, we draw on a wide range of literatures including engineering, economics, policy, governance, and innovation studies to propose a comprehensive industrial policy framework. The policy framework relies on six pillars: directionality, knowledge creation and innovation, creating and reshaping markets, building capacity for governance and change, international coherence, and sensitivity to socio-economic implications of phase-outs. Complementary solutions relying on technological, organizational, and behavioural change must be pursued in parallel and throughout whole value chains. Current policy is limited to supporting mainly some options, e.g. energy efficiency and recycling, with some regions also adopting carbon pricing, although most often exempting the energy and emissions intensive industries. An extended range of options, such as demand management, materials efficiency, and electrification, must also be pursued to reach zero emissions. New policy research and evaluation approaches are needed to support and assess progress as these industries have hitherto largely been overlooked in domestic climate policy as well as international negotiations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A study of poultry processing plant noise characteristics and potential noise control techniques

The noise environment in a typical poultry processing plant was characterized by developing noise contours for two representative plants: Central Soya of Athens, Inc., Athens, Georgia, and Tip Top Poultry, Inc., Marietta, Georgia. Contour information was restricted to the evisceration are of both plants because nearly 60 percent of all process employees are stationed in this area during a normal work shift. Both plant evisceration areas were composed of tile walls, sheet metal ceilings, and concrete floors. Processing was performed in an assembly-line fashion in which the birds travel through the area on overhead shackles while personnel remain at fixed stations. Processing machinery was present throughout the area. In general, the poultry processing noise problem is the result of loud sources and reflective surfaces. Within the evisceration area, it can be concluded that only a few major sources (lung guns, a chiller component, and hock cutters) are responsible for essentially all direct and reverberant sound pressure levels currently observed during normal operations. Consequently, any effort to reduce the noise problem must first address the sound power output of these sources and/or the absorptive qualitities of the room.

Wyvill, J. C.↗

A technique to measure the thermal diffusivity of high Tc superconductors

High T(sub c) superconducting electrical current leads and ground straps will be used in cryogenic coolers in future NASA Goddard Space Flight Center missions. These superconducting samples are long, thin leads with a typical diameter of two millimeters. A longitudinal method is developed to measure the thermal diffusivity of candidate materials for this application. This technique uses a peltier junction to supply an oscillatory heat wave into one end of a sample and will use low mass thermocouples to follow the heat wave along the sample. The thermal diffusivity is calculated using both the exponential decay of the heat wave and the phase shift to the wave. Measurements are performed in a cryostat between 10 K and room temperature.

Powers, Charles E.↗

ENABLING ARCHITECTURE TRADES AND DESIGN EXPLORATION FOR NUCLEAR ELECTRIC PROPULSION

Recent renewed interest in Nuclear Electric Propulsion (NEP) at NASA has driven the need for design space exploration and analysis of alternative architectures to evaluate performance and feasibility of NEP concepts. It has been over a decade since NASA last invested in Nuclear Electric Propulsion development efforts, and the landscape has shifted in both mission objectives and technology readiness levels. This also means that many of the engineering analyses and design frameworks tailored to NEP date back to the Jupiter Icy Moons Orbiter (JIMO) days of the early 2000s. Thus, a need was identified for updating and modernizing the modeling and simulation toolsets for NEP. This paper will detail the development efforts in the Marshall Space Flight Center’s Advanced Concepts Office, with a particular focus on the development of the NEP stage of the NEP-Chem vehicle. The paper will cover the various models used, and their current development status, as well as provide an overview of the integrated vehicle model and plans for further development.

Nuclear↗

Enabling Architecture Trades and Design Exploration for Nuclear Electric Propulsion

Recent renewed interest in Nuclear Electric Propulsion (NEP) at NASA has driven the need for design space exploration and analysis of alternative architectures to evaluate performance and feasibility of NEP concepts. It has been over a decade since NASA last invested in Nuclear Electric Propulsion development efforts, and the landscape has shifted in both mission objectives and technology readiness levels. This also means that many of the engineering analyses and design frameworks tailored to NEP date back to the Jupiter Icy Moons Orbiter (JIMO) days of the early 2000s. Thus, a need was identified for updating and modernizing the modeling and simulation toolsets for NEP. This paper will detail the development efforts in the Marshall Space Flight Center’s Advanced Concepts Office, with a particular focus on the development of the NEP stage of the NEP-Chem vehicle. The paper will cover the various models used, and their current development status, as well as provide an overview of the integrated vehicle model and plans for further development.

Nuclear↗

Assurance by Design for Cyber Physical Data-Driven Systems

Currently, Cyber Physical Data-Driven Systems (CPDDS) employ machine learning for the classification, data fusion, and control of our nation’s infrastructure, such as the power grid, transportation networks (e.g., fuel distribution, air traffic control), and DoD long-duration collaborative autonomous platforms including unmanned underwater, ground, surface, space, and aerial systems. Many CPDDSs are system-of-systems that should be designed to communicate over disadvantaged networks. It is important to assure that the CPDDSs are resilient against physical and cyber threats by design. Additionally, their design should tolerate misclassification errors resulting from natural and/or adversarial distribution shifts within their data driven components. The all-domain nature of the problem of assuring the design of CPDDSs requires a multi-disciplinary perspective as outlined in this chapter.

Chikkagoudar, Satish↗

Estimating snow cover from high-resolution satellite imagery by thresholding blue wavelengths

We report the extent and duration of snow cover, a critical component of the hydrologic cycle and the global climate system, is expected to shift dramatically under climate change. Therefore, developing high-resolution assessments of snow cover change is crucial for estimating the impact of changing snow cover on watershed and ecosystems processes in cold regions. Remote sensing tools provide a powerful method for mapping snow-covered area (SCA) across a landscape. The most common method for estimating SCA utilizes the normalized difference snow index (NDSI), which relies on spectral measurements in the shortwave-infrared wavelengths (SWIR). NDSI can effectively estimate catchment- to regional-scale SCA, but it cannot be used to assess fine-scale SCA because of current limitations on the spatial resolution of satellite-derived SWIR measurements. Here, we map SCA using a threshold of blue wavelengths and high-resolution satellite imagery. The thresholding method, which we call the Blue Snow Threshold algorithm (BST), has previously been used with digital camera imagery. We refine and automate the algorithm for use with cloud-free high-resolution satellite imagery and find that the BST can be used to assess fine-scale SCA. For validation, we compared BST-derived estimates of SCA to a) airborne lidar surveys, b) Landsat fractional SCA, and c) snow disappearance dates from Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) stations. When compared to airborne lidar surveys of SCA, the BST predicted SCA had a range of F-scores between 0.81 and 0.94 in four study areas in California and Colorado. We also found general agreement between SCA and snow disappearance at multiple SNOTEL sites across the western United States. Given the relatively recent availability of high-resolution satellite imagery with spectral measurements in the visible wavelengths but lacking in SWIR, the BST offers a reliable and easy-to-apply tool for examining fine-scale snow-related processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Validation of Hermes-3 turbulence simulations against the TCV-X21 diverted L-mode reference case

Electrostatic flux-driven turbulence simulations with the Hermes-3 code are performed in TCV L-mode conditions in forward and reversed toroidal field configurations, and compared to the TCV-X21 reference dataset (Oliveira et al 2022 Nucl. Fusion 62 096001) qualitatively and with a quantitative methodology. Using only the magnetic equilibrium, total power across the separatrix (120 kW) and total particle flux to the targets (3 x 10 21 s −1 ) as inputs, the simulations produce time-averaged plasma profiles in good agreement with experiment. Shifts in the target peak location when the toroidal field direction is reversed are reproduced in simulation, including the experimentally observed splitting of the outer strike point into two density peaks. The overall normalized discrepancy between simulation and observation is better than any previously reported in the reversed field configuration, and matches the best previously reported in forward field configuration. Differences between simulation and experiment include density profiles inside the separatrix and at the inner target in forward (favorable $\bigtriangledown B$) field configuration. These differences in target temperature in forward field configuration lead to differences in the balance of current to the inner and outer divertor in the private flux region. The cause of these differences is most likely the lack of neutral gas in these simulations, indicating that even in low recycling regimes neutral gas plays an important role in determining edge plasma profiles. These conclusions are consistent with findings in Oliveira et al (2022 https://github.com/SPCData/TCV-X21).

Physics - Plasma physics↗

Quantitative Defect Analysis of Ablator Capsule Surfaces Using a Leica Confocal Microscope and a High-Density Atomic Force Microscope

High-density carbon (HDC) is being evaluated as an alternative to the current National Ignition Facility (NIF) point-design ablator material (glow discharge plasma, or GDP, plastic) due to its high density and optimal opacity, which leads to a higher implosion velocity. Chemical-vapor-deposition-coated HDC capsules have a near perfect surface figure but a microscopically rough surface. After polishing, the surface becomes smooth at nanometer scales but has numerous micron-sized surface pits, whose volumes, morphology, and distribution must be quantified to guide NIF target selection. Traditional metrology tools for GDP surface defects, such as the atomic force microscope (AFM) based Spheremapper and a phase-shifting differential interferometer, lack the resolution to characterize these localized features. In this paper, we describe how this metrology challenge is met by developing automated surface metrology solutions based on a high-density (HD) AFM and a Leica confocal microscope. Furthermore, these tools are complementary in nature. HD-AFM has a 0.1-μm spatial resolution and determines the overall shape distortion and pit statistics by tracing great circles on a capsule with high throughput.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Smart Ventilation Controls for Occupancy and Auxiliary Fan Use Across U.S. Climates

Smart Ventilation has been developed as a way to reduce the energy associated with ventilation by changing when ventilation happens and how much ventilation occurs at any given time. In high performance buildings with low envelope and appliance related loads, ventilation is becoming a bigger part of the total building energy use and needs to be addressed if performance targets are to be met. This work explores the development and performance of smart ventilation controls based on occupancy and auxiliary fan operation that provide annual dwelling unit ventilation equivalence to ASHRAE Standard 62.2-2016. A prototype high performance home compliant with U.S. DOE Building America Zero Energy Ready program requirements was simulated using the REGCAP tool with and without smart controls across 15 U.S. DOE climate zones. Balanced and unbalanced IAQ fans were independently simulated, and all smart controlled fans had airflows double the reference 62.2-2016 airflow. Three idealized occupancy patterns were examined: 1st shift (a typical daily work/school absence), an extended 1st shift with more time spent out of the home evenings and weekends and 3rd shift (night work). The Occupancy controller turns the IAQ fan off during unoccupied periods, and it resumes ventilation upon their return. While unoccupied, contaminants are allowed to accumulate in the space, because occupants are not exposed to these contaminants. When occupants return home, they are exposed to these higher contaminant concentrations, and the controller increases the ventilation rate sufficiently to ensure equivalence with a continuous IAQ fan. Accounting for pollutant emissions that occur during unoccupied periods (as required by ASHRAE 62.2-2016), sharply distinguishes our occupancy controls from past Demand Controlled Ventilation systems. This new accounting method results in equivalent contaminant exposure, as well as lower reductions in average ventilation rates and lower energy savings. Smart controls were demonstrated that saved HVAC energy (i.e., avoided heating/cooling load, as well as fan energy)—averaging between 6 and 46% of ventilation-related energy use depending on the control strategy and occupancy pattern assumptions. The greatest savings were in the combined Auxiliary Fan + Occupancy control. Energy savings increased with climate heating demand and longer unoccupied time periods. The 3rd shift occupancy pattern had better performance, due to the thermal benefit of reducing the ventilation rate during the cold nighttime hours. This same effect provided a cooling energy benefit in hotter locations for the 1st shift. Overall, savings from occupancy-based smart controls were low, because of the recovery period required after occupants return home, during which the airflow is double the 62.2 reference. This recovery is required to maintain equivalence with the ASHRAE standard. Occupancy-based control performance was improved when combined with sensing auxiliary fans and when providing a pre-occupancy flush out of one- or two-hours. Performance was similarly improved if the ASHRAE Standard were to recognize that pollutant emissions are lower during unoccupied periods, iii allowing a lower target ventilation rate during unoccupied periods (not currently in the standard) (see Full vs. Half AEQ in this report). Finally, over-sized unbalanced fans that are cycled on-and-off by a smart controller (or timer) were found to substantially increase annual average air exchange and energy use relative to a continuous unbalanced fan due to the effects of superposition with natural infiltration.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Initial Observations on the Burning of an Ethanol Droplet in Microgravity

Combustion of liquid ethanol represents an important system both from fundamental and practical points of view, Ethanol is currently being used as an additive to gasoline in order to reduce carbon monoxide and particulate emissions as well as to improve the fuel octane rating. A detailed physical understanding of liquid ethanol combustion is therefore necessary to achieve an optimal performance of such fuel blends in practical conditions. Ethanol is also a relatively simple model compound suitable for investigation of important combustion characteristics typical of more complex fuels. In particular, ethanol has been proposed for studies of sooting behavior during droplet burning. The sooting nature of ethanol has pressure sensitivities similar to that of n-heptane, but shifted to a higher range of pressures (1-3 atm). Additionally, liquid ethanol is miscible with water produced during its combustion forming mixtures with azeotropic behavior, a phenomenon important for understanding multi-component, liquid fuel combustion. In this work, we present initial results obtained in a series of recent space-based experiments and develop a detailed model describing the burning of ethanol droplet in microgravity.

Kazakov, Andrei↗

Bandwidth Efficient Baseband Multi-Modulator

The High Rate Baseband Multi-Modulator (HRBM) ASIC is being developed to provide High-speed Bandwidth Efficient Modulations to NASA missions. Bandwidth efficiencies from 2.0 bits/symbol/Hz to 2.75 bits/symbl/Hz are selectable from three CCSDS modulations: Gaussian Minimum Shift Keying (GMSK), Filter Offset Quadrature Phase Shift Keying (Filtered- OQSK) and 8-Phase Shift Keying Trellis Coded Modulation (8-PSK TCM). An FPGA version of the HRBM is developed first to verify the individual modulation designs and characterize timing and performance issues involved with digital baseband modulation synthesis. A Finite Input Response (FIR) filter is included to provided baseband pulse shaping to reduce out-of-band spectral emissions. This is filter is programmable and can be tailored to meet system requirements. The ASIC is targeted to provide up to 600 Mbps throughput and will provide serial as well as parallel input. This paper provides an overview of the technology development and current status.

Fong, Wai↗

New roads and challenges for fuel cells in heavy-duty transportation

The recent release of hydrogen economy roadmaps for several major countries emphasizes the need for accelerated worldwide investment in research and development activities for hydrogen production, storage, infrastructure and utilization in transportation, industry and the electrical grid. Due to the high gravimetric energy density of hydrogen, the focus of technologies that utilize this fuel has recently shifted from light-duty automotive to heavy-duty vehicle applications. Decades of development of cost-effective and durable polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cells must now be leveraged to meet the increased efficiency and durability requirements of the heavy-duty vehicle market. This Review summarizes the latest market outlooks and targets for truck, bus, locomotive and marine applications. Required changes to the fuel-cell system and operating conditions for meeting Class 8 long-haul truck targets are presented. The necessary improvements in fuel-cell materials and integration are also discussed against the benchmark of current passenger fuel-cell electric vehicles.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DLMP of Competitive Markets in Active Distribution Networks: Models, Solutions, Applications, and Visions

Traditionally, the electric distribution system operates with uniform energy prices across all system nodes. However, as the adoption of distributed energy resources (DERs) propels a shift from passive to active distribution network (ADN) operation, a distribution-level electricity market has been proposed to manage new complexities efficiently. In addition, distribution locational marginal price (DLMP) has been established in the literature as the primary pricing mechanism. The DLMP inherits the LMP concept in the transmission-level wholesale market but incorporates characteristics of the distribution system, such as high $R/X$ ratios and power losses, system imbalance, and voltage regulation needs. The DLMP provides a solution that can be essential for competitive market operation in future distribution systems. This article first provides an overview of the current distribution-level market architectures and their early implementations. Next, the general clearing model, model relaxations, and DLMP formulation are comprehensively reviewed. The state-of-the-art solution methods for distribution market clearing are summarized and categorized into centralized, distributed, and decentralized methods. Then, DLMP applications for the operation and planning of DERs and distribution system operators (DSOs) are discussed in detail. Finally, visions of future research directions and possible barriers and challenges are presented.

42 ENGINEERING↗

MLCommons Science Benchmarks

Benchmarks are a cornerstone of modern machine learning practice, providing standardized eval- uations that enable reproducibility, comparison, and scientific progress. Yet, as AI systems particularly deep learning models become increasingly dynamic, traditional static benchmarking approaches are losing their relevance. Models rapidly evolve in architecture, scale, and capability; datasets shift; and deployment contexts continuously change, creating a moving target for evaluation. Without adaptive benchmarking frame- works, both scientific assessment and real-world de- ployment risk becoming misaligned with actual system behavior. Drawing on our experience from MLCommons, educa- tional initiatives, and government programs such as the DOE s Million Parameter Consortium, we identify key barriers that hinder the broader adoption and utility of benchmarking in AI. These include substantial resource demands, limited access to specialized hardware, lack of expertise in benchmark design, and uncertainty among practitioners about how to relate benchmark results to their own application domains. Moreover, current benchmarks often emphasize peak performance on leadership-class hardware, offering limited guidance for more diverse, real-world deployment scenarios. We argue that benchmarking itself must become dy- namic in order to incorporate evolving models, updated data, and heterogeneous computational platforms while maintaining transparency, reproducibility, and inter- pretability. Democratizing this process requires not only technical innovation, but also systematic educational efforts spanning undergraduate to professional levels to develop sustained expertise in benchmark design and use. Finally, benchmarks should be framed and com- municated to support application-relevant comparisons, enabling both developers and users to make informed, context-sensitive decisions. Advancing dynamic and inclusive benchmarking practices will be essential to ensure that evaluation keeps pace with the evolving AI landscape and supports responsible, reproducible, and accessible AI deployment.

Hawks, Benjamin G. [Fermilab]↗

Controls on Soil Organic Matter Degradation and Subsequent Greenhouse Gas Emissions Across a Permafrost Thaw Gradient in Northern Sweden

Warming-induced permafrost thaw could enhance microbial decomposition of previously stored soil organic matter (SOM) to carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ), one of the most significant potential feedbacks from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere in a changing climate. The environmental parameters regulating microbe-organic matter interactions and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in northern permafrost peatlands are however still largely unknown. The objective of this work is to understand controls on SOM degradation and its impact on porewater GHG concentrations across the Stordalen Mire, a thawing peat plateau in Northern Sweden. Here, we applied high-resolution mass spectrometry to characterize SOM molecular composition in peat soil samples from the active layers of a Sphagnum-dominated bog and rich fen sites in the Mire. Microbe-organic matter interactions and porewater GHG concentrations across the thaw gradient were controlled by aboveground vegetation and soil pH. An increasingly high abundance of reduced organic compounds experiencing greater humification rates due to enhanced microbial activity were observed with increasing thaw, in parallel with higher CH 4 and CO 2 porewater concentrations. Bog SOM however contained more Sphagnum-derived phenolics, simple carbohydrates, and organic- acids. The low degradation of bog SOM by microbial communities, the enhanced SOM transformation by potentially abiotic mechanisms, and the accumulation of simple carbohydrates in the bog sites could be attributed in part to the low pH conditions of the system associated with Sphagnum mosses. We show that Gibbs free energy of C half reactions based on C oxidation state for OM can be used as a quantifiable measure for OM decomposability and quality to enhance current biogeochemical models to predict C decomposition rates. We found a direct association between OM chemical diversity and δ 13 C-CH 4 in peat porewater; where higher substrate diversity was positively correlated with enriched δ 13 C-CH 4 in fen sites. Oxidized sulfur-containing compounds, produced by Sphagnum, were further hypothesized to control GHG emissions by acting as electron acceptors for a sulfate-reducing electron transport chain, inhibiting methanogenesis in peat bogs. These results suggest that warming-induced permafrost thaw might increase organic matter lability, in subset of sites that become wetlands, and shift biogeochemical processes toward faster decomposition with an increasing proportion of carbon released as CH 4 .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗