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At least 1,783 records · Page 99
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis of Non-Nuclear Advanced Controls Testbed Reactor Mockup

The research presented in this report describes our progress in applying stochastic methods and uncertainty quantification, parametric study, and variance-based sensitivity analysis (also known as Sobol sensitivity analysis) to a full-core model of a nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) system simulated with Griffin, with the goal of developing a reduced order (surrogate) model which can be rapidly sampled while perturbing multiple input parameters. In this NTP system, reactivity and power feedback affect the rotation of control drums, which are controlled by a hybrid proportional, integral and derivative (PID) controller, actuated by the power demand and reactivity feedback from the numerical model. This model uses reactor kinetic feedback (mean generation time and $\beta$ from a transient Griffin simulation executed with the improved quasi-static method to provide the kinetic parameters) as inputs to functions which control the CD rotation angle. Using a number of stochastic method approaches, we developed a dual purpose training-surrogate model of the NTP system using polynomial regression. The trained model can be rapidly sampled while simultaneously perturbing various input parameters of the model, such as coefficients on the PID control, or temperature (directly affect the neutron cross section). The surrogate model delivers accurate results orders-of-magnitude faster (minutes, not days) than the base model. Once the base model has been trained, distributions of the uncertain parameters can be changed at will to investigate the effects of perturbing multiple inputs and their effect on the output. For example, coefficients used in the PID control system may vary due to some physical interference, or there may be uncertainty in the temperature of the neutron cross sections in various regions of the reactor. A distribution can be placed on these parameters and operational boundaries can be determined. The goal of this work is to support development of an advanced control system to operate CDs in a functioning NTP system.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Analytic Sensitivity Coefficients for Bethe's Solution of the Neutron Slowing Down Equation

Neutron slowing down theory is used to derive expressions for the sensitivity coefficients of the neutron collision density in a hydrogenous infinite medium with respect to the fixed source, scattering probability, and macroscopic nuclear cross sections. Analytic expressions for Bethe’s solution of the neutron slowing down equation are derived for the constant cross section approximation with a point, uniform, and gamma lethargy spectrum. Analytic expressions for the corresponding sensitivity coefficients are derived and used to verify Monte Carlo neutron transport calculations.

Analytic Benchmark↗
DOE OSTI2025

PSA 2025 Presentation: "Modeling and Sensitivity Analysis of a Generation IV Pebble Bed Reactor Using MELCOR 2.2"

Accompanying the advancement of reactor technologies is the need for computational modeling and simulation to predict their behavior under normal operating conditions and accident scenarios. New Generation IV reactor designs which employ non-conventional fuel have a particular need for modeling the behavior and release of radionuclides and other material from the fuel. In this work, MELCOR version 2.2, a system-level safety and accident scenario code developed by Sandia National Laboratories, was used to model a 200-MWth pebble bed modular reactor and calculate the inventories of circulating and deposited graphite, metal dust, and elemental components released from the fuel elements. A base case modeling the reactor under standard operating conditions was calculated using MELCOR and the inventories were extrapolated to 30 years of operation time using a logarithmic regression fit. A sensitivity analysis was also performed in which several key parameters for the base case model were modified to explore the effect of these changes on the inventories calculated by MELCOR. A set of transient scenario simulations for a depressurized loss of forced cooling (DLOFC) accident were also performed. The results of the sensitivity analysis and transient simulations are reported and discussed in relation to the modeling techniques used for this study.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Log-N/Period Power Offset Sensitivity Calculation

This study focused on the calculation of sensitivity values for Channels 4 and 5 in the Log-N/Period system at the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR). The Log-N/Period system provides an indication of reactor power generation between criticality and full power. This indication is determined by the power offset and the current produced by the detector. Sensitivity values for Channels 4 and 5 were calculated using existing equations, documents, reactor startup data.

42 - ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2014

Parameterization and sensitivity analysis of a process‐based terrestrial ecosystem model using adjoint method

Abstract We developed an adjoint version of a process‐based biogeochemistry model, the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM). The adjoint model of TEM was then used to: (1) conduct sensitivity studies of net ecosystem production (NEP) for three terrestrial ecosystems: grassland, deciduous broadleaf forest and evergreen needle‐leaf forest; (2) rank the importance of parameters in controlling NEP; (3) optimize the model parameters by assimilating eddy flux data of NEP; and (4) evaluate parameterization by extrapolating optimal parameters to other sites that have the same plant functional type as the calibration sites. We found that: (1) the maximum rate of photosynthesis ( C MAX ) was the most important parameter in determining NEP, while the importance of the remaining parameters varied depending on plant functional type, suggesting that the same ecosystem process has different degrees of importance in modeling carbon fluxes; (2) the sensitivity of NEP to C MAX had a significant seasonal variability and the control of C MAX on NEP was much larger in growing season (defined as from April to October) than that in nongrowing season (defined as from December to March); and (3) after parameterization, TEM could reasonably reproduce carbon fluxes observed at eddy flux tower sites. This study provided an effective model‐data fusion framework of TEM, which could improve the future quantification of terrestrial ecosystem carbon fluxes at both site and regional levels.

Zhu, Qing↗
DOE OSTI2014

Earths Climate Sensitivity: Apparent Inconsistencies in Recent Assessments

Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and forcing of Earth's climate system over the industrial era have been re-examined in two new assessments: the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and a study by Otto et al. (2013). The ranges of these quantities given in these assessments and also in the Fourth (2007) IPCC Assessment are analyzed here within the framework of a planetary energy balance model, taking into account the observed increase in global mean surface temperature over the instrumental record together with best estimates of the rate of increase of planetary heat content. This analysis shows systematic differences among the several assessments and apparent inconsistencies within individual assessments. Importantly, the likely range of ECS to doubled CO₂ given in AR5, 1.5–4.5 K/(3.7 W m⁻²) exceeds the range inferred from the assessed likely range of forcing, 1.2–2.9 K/(3.7 W m⁻²), where 3.7 W ⁻² denotes the forcing for doubled CO₂. Such differences underscore the need to identify their causes and reduce the underlying uncertainties. Explanations might involve underestimated negative aerosol forcing, overestimated total forcing, overestimated climate sensitivity, poorly constrained ocean heating, limitations of the energy balance model, or a combination of effects.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Attribution of extreme weather to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions: Sensitivity to spatial and temporal scales

Recent studies have examined the anthropogenic contribution to specific extreme weather events, such as the European (2003) and Russian (2010) heat waves. While these targeted studies examine the attributable risk of an event occurring over a specified temporal and spatial domain, it is unclear how effectively their attribution statements can serve as a proxy for similar events occurring at different temporal and spatial scales. Here we test the sensitivity of attribution results to the temporal and spatial scales of extreme precipitation and temperature events by applying a probabilistic event attribution framework to the output of two global climate models, each run with and without anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Attributable risk tends to be more sensitive to the temporal than spatial scale of the event, increasing as event duration increases. Globally, correlations between attribution statements at different spatial scales are very strong for temperature extremes and moderate for heavy precipitation extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

The sensitivity of carbon exchanges in Great Plains grasslands to precipitation variability

Abstract In the Great Plains, grassland carbon dynamics differ across broad gradients of precipitation and temperature, yet finer‐scale variation in these variables may also affect grassland processes. Despite the importance of grasslands, there is little information on how fine‐scale relationships compare between them regionally. We compared grassland C exchanges, energy partitioning and precipitation variability in eight sites in the eastern and western Great Plains using eddy covariance and meteorological data. During our study, both eastern and western grasslands varied between an average net carbon sink and a net source. Eastern grasslands had a moderate vapor pressure deficit (VPD = 0.95 kPa) and high growing season gross primary productivity (GPP = 1010 ± 218 g C m −2 yr −1 ). Western grasslands had a growing season with higher VPD (1.43 kPa) and lower GPP (360 ± 127 g C m −2 yr −1 ). Western grasslands were sensitive to precipitation at daily timescales, whereas eastern grasslands were sensitive at monthly and seasonal timescales. Our results support the expectation that C exchanges in these grasslands differ as a result of varying precipitation regimes. Because eastern grasslands are less influenced by short‐term variability in rainfall than western grasslands, the effects of precipitation change are likely to be more predictable in eastern grasslands because the timescales of variability that must be resolved are relatively longer. We postulate increasing regional heterogeneity in grassland C exchanges in the Great Plains in coming decades.

Petrie, M. D.↗
DOE OSTI2015

The impact of vertical shear on the sensitivity of tropical cyclogenesis to environmental rotation and thermodynamic state

Abstract The impact of vertical wind shear on the sensitivity of tropical cyclogenesis to environmental rotation and thermodynamic state is investigated through idealized cloud‐resolving simulations of the intensification of an incipient vortex. With vertical shear, tropical cyclones intensify faster with a higher Coriolis parameter, f , irrespective of the environmental thermodynamic state. The vertical shear develops a vertically tilted vortex, which undergoes a precession process with the midlevel vortices rotating cyclonically around the surface center. With a higher f , the midlevel vortices are able to rotate continuously against the vertical shear, leading to the realignment of the tilted vortex and rapid intensification. With a lower f , the rotation is too slow such that the midlevel vortices are advected away from the surface center and the intensification is suppressed. The parameter, χ b , measuring the effect from the low‐entropy downdraft air on the boundary layer entropy, is found to be a good indicator of the environmental thermodynamic favorability for tropical cyclogenesis in vertical shear. Without vertical shear, tropical cyclones are found to intensify faster with a lower f by previous studies. We show this dependency on f is sensitive to the environmental thermodynamic state. The thermodynamical favorability for convection can be measured by χ m , which estimates the time it takes for surface fluxes to moisten the midtroposphere. A smaller χ m not only leads to a faster intensification due to a shorter period for moist preconditioning of the inner region but also neutralizes the faster intensification with a lower f due to enhanced peripheral convection.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2016

Future changes in regional precipitation simulated by a half-degree coupled climate model: Sensitivity to horizontal resolution

The global fully coupled half-degree Community Climate System Model Version 4 (CCSM4) was integrated for a suite of climate change ensemble simulations including five historical runs, five Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 [RCP8.5) runs, and a long Pre-Industrial control run. This study focuses on precipitation at regional scales and its sensitivity to horizontal resolution. The half-degree historical CCSM4 simulations are compared to observations, where relevant, and to the standard 1° CCSM4. Both the halfdegree and 1° resolutions are coupled to a nominal 1° ocean. North American and South Asian/Indian monsoon regimes are highlighted because these regimes demonstrate improvements due to higher resolution, primarily because of better-resolved topography. Agriculturally sensitive areas are analyzed and include Southwest, Central, and Southeast U.S., Southern Europe, and Australia. Both mean and extreme precipitation is discussed for convective and large-scale precipitation processes. Convective precipitation tends to decrease with increasing resolution and large-scale precipitation tends to increase. Improvements for the half-degree agricultural regions can be found for mean and extreme precipitation in the Southeast U.S., Southern Europe, and Australian regions. Climate change responses differ between the model resolutions for the U.S. Southwest/Central regions and are seasonally dependent in the Southeast and Australian regions. Both resolutions project a clear drying signal across Southern Europe due to increased greenhouse warming. As a result, differences between resolutions tied to the representation of convective and large-scale precipitation play an important role in the character of the climate change and depend on regional influences.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

The influence of model resolution on the simulated sensitivity of North Atlantic tropical cyclone maximum intensity to sea surface temperature

Global climate models (GCMs) are routinely relied upon to study the possible impacts of climate change on a wide range of meteorological phenomena, including tropical cyclones (TCs). Previous studies addressed whether GCMs are capable of reproducing observed TC frequency and intensity distributions. This research builds upon earlier studies by examining how well GCMs capture the physically relevant relationship between TC intensity and SST. Specifically, the influence of model resolution on the ability of a GCM to reproduce the sensitivity of simulated TC intensity to SST is examined for the MRI-AGCM (20 km), the GFDL-HiRAM (50 km), the FSU-COAPS (0.94°) model, and two versions of the CAM5 (1° and 0.25°). Results indicate that while a 1°C increase in SST corresponds to a 5.5–7.0 m s -1 increase in observed maximum intensity, the same 1°C increase in SST is not associated with a statistically significant increase in simulated TC maximum intensity for any of the models examined. However, it also is shown that the GCMs all capably reproduce the observed sensitivity of potential intensity to SST. The models generate the thermodynamic environment suitable for the development of strong TCs over the correct portions of the Nort h Atlantic basin, but strong simulated TCs do not develop over these areas, even for models that permit Category 5 TCs. This result supports the notion that direct simulation of TC eyewall convection is necessary to accurately represent TC intensity and intensification processes in climate models, although additional explanations are also explored.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Internal Variability and Disequilibrium Confound Estimates of Climate Sensitivity From Observations

An emerging literature suggests that estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) derived from recent observations and energy balance models are biased low because models project more positive climate feedback in the far future. Here we use simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to show that across models, ECS inferred from the recent historical period (1979–2005) is indeed almost uniformly lower than that inferred from simulations subject to abrupt increases in CO2 radiative forcing. However, ECS inferred from simulations in which sea surface temperatures are prescribed according to observations is lower still. ECS inferred from simulations with prescribed sea surface temperatures is strongly linked to changes to tropical marine low clouds. However, feedbacks from these clouds are a weak constraint on long-term model ECS. One interpretation is that observations of recent climate changes constitute a poor direct proxy for long-term sensitivity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Using Long-term Satellite Observations to Identify Sensitive Regimes and Active Regions of Aerosol Indirect Effects for Liquid Clouds over Global Oceans

Long-term (1981-2011) satellite climate data records (CDRs) of clouds and aerosols are used to investigate the aerosol-cloud interaction of marine water cloud from a climatology perspective. Our focus is on identifying the regimes and regions where the aerosol indirect effect (AIE) are evident in long-term averages over the global oceans through analyzing the correlation features between aerosol loading and the key cloud variables including cloud droplet effective radius (CDER), cloud optical depth (COD), cloud water path (CWP), cloud top height (CTH), and cloud top temperature (CTT). An aerosol optical thickness (AOT) range of 0.13 < AOT < 0.3 is identified as the sensitive regime of the conventional first AIE where CDER is more susceptible to AOT than the other cloud variables. The first AIE that manifests as the change of long-term averaged CDER appears only in limited oceanic regions. The signature of aerosol invigoration of water clouds as revealed by the increase of cloud cover fraction (CCF) and CTH with increasing AOT at the middle/high latitudes of both hemispheres is identified for a pristine atmosphere (AOT < 0.08). Aerosol invigoration signature is also revealed by the concurrent increase of CDER, COD, and CWP with increasing AOT for a polluted marine atmosphere (AOT > 0.3) in the tropical convergence zones. The regions where the second AIE is likely to manifest in the CCF change are limited to several oceanic areas with high CCF of the warm water clouds near the western coasts of continents. The second AIE signature as represented by the reduction of the precipitation efficiency with increasing AOT is more likely to be observed in the AOT regime of 0.08 < AOT < 0.4. The corresponding AIE active regions manifested themselves as the decline of the precipitation efficiency are mainly limited to the oceanic areas downwind of continental aerosols. Furthermore, the sensitive regime of the conventional AIE identified in this observational study is likely associated with the transitional regime from the aerosol-limited regime to the updraft-limited regime identified for aerosol-cloud interaction in cloud model simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

The GFDL Global Atmosphere and Land Model AM4.0/LM4.0: 2. Model Description, Sensitivity Studies, and Tuning Strategies

Here, in Part 2 of this two–part paper, documentation is provided of key aspects of a version of the AM4.0/LM4.0 atmosphere/land model that will serve as a base for a new set of climate and Earth system models (CM4 and ESM4) under development at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). The quality of the simulation in AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) mode has been provided in Part 1. Part 2 provides documentation of key components and some sensitivities to choices of model formulation and values of parameters, highlighting the convection parameterization and orographic gravity wave drag. The approach taken to tune the model's clouds to observations is a particular focal point. Care is taken to describe the extent to which aerosol effective forcing and Cess sensitivity have been tuned through the model development process, both of which are relevant to the ability of the model to simulate the evolution of temperatures over the last century when coupled to an ocean model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Highly Sensitive Low‐Bandgap Perovskite Photodetectors with Response from Ultraviolet to the Near‐Infrared Region

Abstract It is a great challenge to obtain broadband response perovskite photodetectors (PPDs) due to the relatively large bandgaps of the most used methylammonium lead halide perovskites. The response range of the reported PPDs is limited in the ultraviolet–visible range. Here, highly sensitive PPDs are successfully fabricated with low bandgap (≈1.25 eV) (FASnI 3 ) 0.6 (MAPbI 3 ) 0.4 perovskite as active layers, exhibiting a broadband response from 300 to 1000 nm. The performance of the PPDs can be optimized by adjusting the thicknesses of the perovskite and C 60 layers. The optimized PPDs with 1000 nm thick perovskite layer and 70 nm thick C 60 layer exhibit an almost flat external quantum efficiency (EQE) spectrum from 350 to 900 nm with EQE larger than 65% under −0.2 V bias. Meanwhile, the optimized PPDs also exhibit suppressed dark current of 3.9 nA, high responsivity ( R ) of over 0.4 A W −1 , high specific detectivity ( D* ) of over 10 12 Jones in the near‐infrared region under −0.2 V. Such highly sensitive broadband response PPDs, which can work well as self‐powered conditions, offer great potential applications in multicolor light detection.

Wang, Wenbin↗
DOE OSTI2026

Probing Cellular Activity Via Charge‐Sensitive Quantum Nanoprobes

Nitrogen‐vacancy (NV) based quantum sensors hold great potential for real‐time single‐cell sensing with far‐reaching applications in fundamental biology and medical diagnostics. Although highly sensitive, the mapping of quantum measurements onto cellular physiological states has remained an exceptional challenge. Here, we introduce a novel quantum sensing modality capable of detecting changes in cellular activity. Our approach is based on the detection of environment‐induced charge depletion within an individual particle that, owing to a previously unaccounted transverse dipole term, induces systematic shifts in the zero‐field splitting (ZFS). Importantly, these charge‐induced shifts serve as a reliable indicator for lipopolysaccharide (LPS)‐mediated inflammatory response in macrophages. Furthermore, we demonstrate that surface modification of our diamond nanoprobes effectively suppresses these environment‐induced ZFS shifts, providing an important tool for differentiating electrostatic shifts caused by the environment from other unrelated effects, such as temperature variations. Notably, this surface modification also leads to significant reductions in particle‐induced toxicity and inflammation. Our findings shed light on systematic drifts and sensitivity limits of NV spectroscopy in a biological environment with ramifications for the critical discussion surrounding single‐cell thermogenesis. Notably, this work establishes the foundation for a novel sensing modality capable of probing complex cellular processes through straightforward physical measurements.

band bending↗
DOE OSTI2025

Increasing the Stability of Deep Blue Phosphor‐Sensitized OLEDs Using the Polariton‐Enhanced Purcell Effect

Abstract The stability of efficient, deep blue organic light‐emitting diodes (OLEDs) remains a major challenge in the field of organic electronics. Poor device stability originates from the high probability for destructive non‐radiative triplet exciton annihilation events. Phosphor‐sensitized fluorescence (PSF) is proposed to achieve an efficient, deep blue color by energy transfer from phosphors to fluorophores. Recently, the polariton‐enhanced Purcell (PEP) effect is introduced to decrease the triplet radiative lifetime and density, resulting in an increase in blue phosphorescent OLED lifetime. Here, the PEP effect is introduced to enhance the stability of the PSF‐OLEDs. It is shown that the PEP effect increases all radiative decay rates of the phosphors and fluorophores, leading to a reduction in the triplet annihilation events. Using a Pt‐complex phosphor sensitizer and a so‐called multi‐resonance fluorescent emitter in a PEP cavity, a 3.1‐fold lifetime increase is observed at a current density ofJ= 10 mA cm −2 , reduced EQE roll‐off and deep blue color with Commission Internationale de l'Eclairage coordinates of (0.13, 0.09). The PEP effect maximally extends PSF‐OLED lifetimes in devices with the highest triplet‐to‐singlet energy transfer rates. Moreover, this work suggests that the benefits of PEPs apply to all triplet‐based OLEDs.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2017

3D graphene from CO 2 and K as an excellent counter electrode for dye-sensitized solar cells

3D graphene, which was synthesized directly from CO 2 via its exothermic reaction with liquid K, exhibited excellent performance as a counter electrode for a dye-sensitized solar cell (DSSC). The DSSC has achieved a high power conversion efficiency of 8.25%, which is 10 times larger than that (0.74%) of a DSSC with a counter electrode of the regular graphene synthesized via chemical exfoliation of graphite. The efficiency is even higher than that (7.73%) of a dye-sensitized solar cell with an expensive standard Pt counter electrode. This work provides a novel approach to use a greenhouse gas for DSSCs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗