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At least 1,783 records · Page 99

Quantification of hydraulic trait control on plant hydrodynamics and risk of hydraulic failure within a demographic structured vegetation model in a tropical forest (FATES–HYDRO V1.0)

Abstract. Vegetation plays a key role in the global carbon cycle and thus is an important component within Earth system models (ESMs) that project future climate. Many ESMs are adopting methods to resolve plant size and ecosystem disturbance history, using vegetation demographic models. These models make it feasible to conduct more realistic simulation of processes that control vegetation dynamics. Meanwhile, increasing understanding of the processes governing plant water use, and ecosystem responses to drought in particular, has led to the adoption of dynamic plant water transport (i.e., hydrodynamic) schemes within ESMs. However, the extent to which variations in plant hydraulic traits affect both plant water stress and the risk of mortality in trait-diverse tropical forests is understudied. In this study, we report on a sensitivity analysis of an existing hydrodynamic scheme (HYDRO) model that is updated and incorporated into the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) (FATES–HYDRO V1.0). The size- and canopy-structured representation within FATES is able to simulate how plant size and hydraulic traits affect vegetation dynamics and carbon–water fluxes. To better understand this new model system, and its functionality in tropical forest systems in particular, we conducted a global parameter sensitivity analysis at Barro Colorado Island, Panama. We assembled 942 observations of plant hydraulic traits on 306 tropical plant species for stomata, leaves, stems, and roots and determined the best-fit statistical distribution for each trait, which was used in model parameter sampling to assess the parametric sensitivity. We showed that, for simulated leaf water potential and loss of hydraulic conductivity across different plant organs, the four most important traits were associated with xylem conduit taper (buffers increasing hydraulic resistance with tree height), stomatal sensitivity to leaf water potential, maximum stem hydraulic conductivity, and the partitioning of total hydraulic resistance above vs. belowground. Our analysis of individual ensemble members revealed that trees at a high risk of hydraulic failure and potential tree mortality generally have a lower conduit taper, lower maximum xylem conductivity, lower stomatal sensitivity to leaf water potential, and lower resistance to xylem embolism for stem and transporting roots. We expect that our results will provide guidance on future modeling studies using plant hydrodynamic models to predict the forest responses to droughts and future field campaigns that aim to better parameterize plant hydrodynamic models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Computer simulation of Saturn 5 response to pre-launch wind loads

A digital computer program is described which was developed to estimate Saturn 5 response to prelaunch wind conditions at Cape Kennedy. The program computes displacement and bending moment statistics as a function of parameters defining the atmospheric environment. A sample problem is provided to illustrate utilization of the program.

Coffin, T.↗

The luminosity function of galactic X-ray sources - A cutoff and a 'standard candle'

Analysis of the 2- to 10-kev luminosity distribution of 36 X-ray sources in the Local Group having known or estimated distances, showing that there exists a luminosity cutoff of approximately 10 to the 37.7th ergs/sec in agreement with the theoretical (Eddington) limit for the luminosity of an approximately 1 solar mass star. Furthermore, among the complete sample of high-luminosity sources, there appears to be a statistically significant group of X-ray 'standard candles' at (within less than 0.8 mag) the critical luminosity. This finding (which is in agreement with the self-consistent mass flow accretion models) presents the possibility that X-ray sources may be used as extragalactic distance indicators in the next generation of X-ray astronomy experiments.

Margon, B.↗

The Apollo 16 microbial response to space environment experiment

The effect was evaluated of a particular space flight on the survival rate of nine different species. Although a reasonable variety of organisms (viruses, yeasts, filamentous fungi, bacteria, and an invertebrate) were tested under several different conditions, no statistically valid differences could be detected in the survival of flight samples when compared to corresponding ground-based controls. In general, these evaluations were based on multiple observations of from ten to thirty replicates of up to one million cells each. While the results conflict with those of certain other space flight investigations, it is observed that the conditions of a particular space flight cannot be exactly duplicated, and therefore results from different flights are not directly comparable.

Gerald R. Taylor↗

Crop identification and area estimation by computer-aided analysis of Landsat data

This report describes the results of a study involving the use of computer-aided analysis techniques applied to Landsat MSS data for identification and area estimation of winter wheat in Kansas and corn and soybeans in Indiana. Key elements of the approach included use of aerial photography for classifier training, stratification of Landsat data and extension of training statistics to areas without training data, and classification of a systematic sample of pixels from each county. Major results and conclusions are: (1) Landsat data was adequate for accurate identification and area estimation of winter wheat in Kansas, but corn and soybean estimates for Indiana were less accurate; (2) computer-aided analysis techniques can be effectively used to extract crop identification information from Landsat MSS data, and (3) systematic sampling of entire counties made possible by computer classification methods resulted in very precise area estimates at county as well as district and state levels.

Bauer, M. E.↗

The crop assessment subsystem: System implementation and approaches used for the generation of crop production reports

The primary responsibility of the crop assessment subsystem (CAS) during the three phases of LACIE was to produce crop reports that included estimates of wheat area, yield, and production, as well as a specified set of associated statistical descriptors. The operations of CAS are described with emphasis on sampling strategy, input/output data, evolution of aggregation/reporting system capabilities, and CAS aggregation procedures.

Mcallum, W. E.↗

A search for long-term periodicities in large earthquakes of southern and coastal central California

It has been occasionally suggested that large earthquakes may follow the 8.85-year and 18.6-year lunar-solar tidal cycles and possibly the approximately 11-year solar activity cycle. From a new study of earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 5.5 in southern and coastal central California during the years 1855-1983, it is concluded that, at least in this selected area of the world, no statistically significant long-term periodicities in earthquake frequency occur. The sample size used is about twice that used in comparable earlier studies of this region, which concentrated on large earthquakes.

Stothers, Richard B.↗

A radio continuum survey of edge-on spiral galaxies at 90 cm

Accurate spectral indices of the radio emission from both the thin disk and thick disk or halo components are critical to understanding the propagation mechanisms of electrons within spiral galaxies. The spectral indices give information of relative importance of diffusion and synchrotron energy loss in the propagation of electrons in the disk. Our goal of this survey is to locate a larger sample of spiral galaxies that exhibit halo phenomena so that a statistical analysis will be possible.

Heikkila, B.↗

Bias Reduction in Short Records of Satellite Soil Moisture

Although surface soil moisture data from different sources (satellite retrievals, ground measurements, and land model integrations of observed meteorological forcing data) have been shown to contain consistent and useful information in their seasonal cycle and anomaly signals, they typically exhibit very different mean values and variability. These biases pose a severe obstacle to exploiting the useful information contained in satellite retrievals through data assimilation. A simple method of bias removal is to match the cumulative distribution functions (cdf) of the satellite and model data. However, accurate cdf estimation typically requires a long record of satellite data. We demonstrate here that by wing spatial sampling with a 2 degree moving window we can obtain local statistics based on a one-year satellite record that are a good approximation to those that would be derived from a much longer time series. This result should increase the usefulness of relatively short satellite data records.

Reichle, Rolf H.↗

Bayesian Approach to the Joint Inversion of Gravity and Magnetic Data, with Application to the Ismenius Area of Mars

This viewgraph presentation reviews a Bayesian approach to the inversion of gravity and magnetic data with specific application to the Ismenius Area of Mars. Many inverse problems encountered in geophysics and planetary science are well known to be non-unique (i.e. inversion of gravity the density structure of a body). In hopes of reducing the non-uniqueness of solutions, there has been interest in the joint analysis of data. An example is the joint inversion of gravity and magnetic data, with the assumption that the same physical anomalies generate both the observed magnetic and gravitational anomalies. In this talk, we formulate the joint analysis of different types of data in a Bayesian framework and apply the formalism to the inference of the density and remanent magnetization structure for a local region in the Ismenius area of Mars. The Bayesian approach allows prior information or constraints in the solutions to be incorporated in the inversion, with the "best" solutions those whose forward predictions most closely match the data while remaining consistent with assumed constraints. The application of this framework to the inversion of gravity and magnetic data on Mars reveals two typical challenges - the forward predictions of the data have a linear dependence on some of the quantities of interest, and non-linear dependence on others (termed the "linear" and "non-linear" variables, respectively). For observations with Gaussian noise, a Bayesian approach to inversion for "linear" variables reduces to a linear filtering problem, with an explicitly computable "error" matrix. However, for models whose forward predictions have non-linear dependencies, inference is no longer given by such a simple linear problem, and moreover, the uncertainty in the solution is no longer completely specified by a computable "error matrix". It is therefore important to develop methods for sampling from the full Bayesian posterior to provide a complete and statistically consistent picture of model uncertainty, and what has been learned from observations. We will discuss advanced numerical techniques, including Monte Carlo Markov

data analysis↗

Parametric Cost Models for Space Telescopes

A study is in-process to develop a multivariable parametric cost model for space telescopes. Cost and engineering parametric data has been collected on 30 different space telescopes. Statistical correlations have been developed between 19 variables of 59 variables sampled. Single Variable and Multi-Variable Cost Estimating Relationships have been developed. Results are being published.

Stahl, H. Philip↗

Effects of Ionizing Radiation on Murine Gene Expression in Skin and Bone

Long duration spaceflight causes a negative calcium balance and reduces bone density in astronauts. The potential for exposure to space radiation to contribute to lasting decrements in bone mass is not yet understood. Sustained changes to bone mass have a relatively long latency for development, however skin is a radiation sensitive organ and changes in skin gene expression may serve as an early radiation biomarker of exposures and may correlate with adverse effects on skeletal tissue. Previous studies have shown that FGF18 gene expression levels of hair follicles collected from astronauts on the ISS rose over time. In the hair follicle, FGF18 signaling mediates radioresistance in the telogen by arresting the cell cycle, and FGF18 has the potential to function as a radioprotector. In bone, FGF18 appears to regulate cell proliferation and differentiation positively during osteogenesis and negatively during chondrogenesis. Cellular defense responses to radiation are shared by a variety of organs, hence in this study, we examined whether radiation induced gene expression changes in skin may be predictive of the responses of skeletal tissue to radiation exposure. We have examined oxidative stress and growth arrest pathways in mouse skin and long bones by measuring gene expression levels via quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) after exposure to total body irradiation (TBI). To investigate the effects of irradiation on gene expression, we used skin and femora (cortical shaft) from the following treatment groups: control (normally loaded, sham-irradiated), and TBI (0.5 Gy Fe-56 600 MeV/n and 0.5 Gy H-1 150 MeV/n). Animals were euthanized one and 11 days post-IR. Statistical analysis was performed via a Student's ttest. In skin samples one day after IR, skin expression of FGF18 was significantly greater (3.8X) than sham-irradiated controls (3.8X), but did not differ 11 days post TBI. Expression levels of other radiation related genes (Nfe2l2, Trp53, Cdkn1a, FoxO3, Gadd45g, SOD1), was not different due to TBI at either time point. In bone (femora) TBI significantly increased (3.8X) expression of the pro-bone resorption cytokine, MCP-1, one day after TBI. FGF18 expression in skin and MCP- 1 expression in bone were found to be positively correlated (P less than 0.002, r=0.8779). Further, microcomputed tomography analysis of tibae from these animals showed reduced fractional cancellous bone volume (-21.7%) at 11 days post exposure. These results suggest that early radiation induced changes in FGF18 gene expression in skin may have value for predicting subsequent loss of cancellous bone mass.

space radiation↗

Tropical Simultaneous Nadir Observations for IR Sounder Evaluation and Comparison

Simultaneous Nadir Observations (SNOs) contain thousands of pairs of observations taken within 8 km and 10 minutes. SNOs have been very useful for comparisons in polar conditions. But classic SNO pairing criteria have very low yield in the tropics, making these SNOs less useful for investigating instrument performance for hotter scenes or scenes with high contrast. We introduce a modified methodology, which finds pairs of matched spectra in a wider angular range but is restricted to the tropics. We illustrate this with AIRS and CrIS data. Insight into instrument differences is gained from statistical distributions of the residual differences between the matched pairs. A sample analysis compares AIRS and CrIS brightness temperature at 900 cm-1 as function of scene brightness temperature. The proposed method may be applicable to matchups of other sensors on different spacecraft.

AIRS↗

Analysis of Igniter/Promoter Material Effects on Burn Length Variability in Astm G124 Standard Testing

ASTM G124 refers to the “Standard Test Method for Determining the Combustion Behavior of Metallic Materials in Oxygen Enriched Atmospheres”. Major test parameters are well defined in the standard and a detailed description of how to set up and conduct the test is also included. However, one variable - the igniter/promoter system - is not clearly restricted or specified. Due to the fact that this igniter/promoter system is not definitively specified, multiple materials have been used. This lack of specificity in igniter/promoter material was identified as a potential source of variability in test results, and as such has been selected for this study as a parameter to analyze and identify if the igniters/promoters should be standardized. For that purpose, several igniter/promoter systems have been selected (that were currently in use at various laboratories) which would be tested via ASTM G124 with Inconel 718 test rods. Testing was conducted over two phases – the first for screening promoter effects in the transition region of the material, and the second for comparing measured flammability thresholds identified through testing by each igniter/promoter type. The results of this study have found that igniter/promoter material is not a statistically significant factor in the variability of burn length in test samples. Initial results showing variability was likely due to small sample size, as the issue became less pronounced once more samples were tested and more data generated. Each of the igniter/promoter systems tested were effective at determining flammability thresholds and so it is concluded that no specific igniter/promoter needs to be identified in the ASTM G124 test standard.

oxygen compatibility↗

Anatomical Fraction segmentation in the biomass bales

The U.S. Department of Energy Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) is committed to the development of sustainable, nationwide, commercial biofuel production to displace petroleum-derived fuels, increase domestic energy production, and encourage the creation of a domestic bioenergy and bioproducts industry. Operating a commercial-scale bioenergy operation requires significant technological advancements for determining biomass feedstock quality during the preprocessing stage. Usage of non-food feedstocks- e.g., corn-stover, pine residue, and forest residue - at the biorefineries reduces strain on the food supply chain. But the non-food feedstock heterogeneity- physical size, shape, and chemical composition-poses a significant challenge during milling, conveyance, feeding, and biofuel conversion processes. 3D X-Ray imaging (CT) is capable of distinguishing material features by detecting density and compositional differences. But the inherent complexity introduced during harvesting and bailing makes the reconstruction and interpretation of baled biomass materials from x-ray data time consuming, laborious, and expensive. Feedstocks are low-density materials that produce small contrast differences in the x-ray images. This paper focuses on using the shape and texture properties, using 3D image processing techniques like 3D skeletonization, directional statistics to characterize and extract volumetric content of the different tissue samples in the biomass bales.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Characterizing Reactor Operations from Realistic Simulated Environmental Samples: Combining High-Performance Computing and Data Analytics

Environmental sampling is a common technique employed by inspectors and facility operators in nuclear safeguards, proliferation detection, and process monitoring contexts. Interpreting measurements performed on samples or collections of samples and ensuring the information extracted is accurate and precise is difficult. To date, these analyses have relied on simulated data to enable systematic studies; however, these models are inherently limited by the fidelity of the models and the implicit spatial averaging of isotopic composition or other signatures of interest. To advance this capability, we have refined the spatial discretization and expanded the range of physics in the simulation codes we use to perform reactor simulations and depletion calculations. This allows us to generate data that are more representative of real environmental samples, especially for the length scale of the isotopic composition and associated variation. Accordingly, these new data allow a more realistic assessment of traditional and new data analytic analysis methods. Here we present motivation for developing reactor simulations using high-performance computing methods and resources, impacts of these new simulations on our assessment of data analysis and interpretation methods, and initial results of developing and systematically testing data analytic methods designed to overcome the challenges expected of real-world samples. We also quantify the performance of these analyses using defensible statistical methods.

Dayman, Ken J.↗

Neutron and Gamma Correlations using CGM in MCNP 6.2.0

The general-purpose Monte Carlo radiation-transport code MCNP6{sup TM} came from the integration of MCNP5{sup TM} and MCNPX{sup TM}. The most recent release of MCNP, version 6.2.0, is scheduled for release in early 2017, which includes a variety of bug fixes and new features to the code. MCNP traditionally models nuclear reactions using Monte Carlo sampling techniques on measured and modeled cross-sectional data contained within ACE (A Compact Evaluated Nuclear Data File) libraries. In addition to reaction cross-sections, ACE libraries contain information relating to the production of secondary particles, such as secondary neutrons and photons. For example, an incident neutron on a nucleus can produce a nuclear reaction in the form (n, M{sub n}n'), where n is the incident neutron and M{sub n} is the number of secondary neutrons n' produced. Using this notation, different reactions can be described based on their neutron multiplicity, such as neutron capture (M{sub n} = 0), elastic and inelastic scattering (M{sub n} = 1), and reactions with multiple secondary neutrons (M{sub n} > 1). Accounting for secondary γ-rays emitted from the residual nuclei, this reaction can further be generalized as n, Mnn'M to describe a reaction producing M{sub n} neutrons and M -rays. These values M{sub n} and M are referred to as the neutron and multiplicities, respectively. ACE libraries contain the cross-sectional data for each reaction, and their corresponding statistically averaged multiplicities for neutrons and photons, M-bar{sub n} and M-bar{sub γ}. However, there are several limitations to reaction sampling using ACE libraries. First, the data contained within ACE libraries is limited by the accuracy of the model and/or experiment, which out of necessity can greatly simplify the true physics behind a reaction. For example, the value M{sub γ} in a (n, M{sub n}n'M{sub γ}γ) reaction is determined by the statistically averaged multiplicity M-bar{sub γ} instead of a distribution. Consequently, MCNP, unable to produce a continuous distribution, will utilizes a binary sampling around M-bar{sub γ}. While this sampling method provides a statistically average M{sub γ} over a large simulation, it is an inaccurate representation of an individual reaction and its corresponding secondary particles. Secondary neutrons are affected in a similar manner, such that different kinds of secondary neutrons can be sampled from the same interaction (eg., an inelastic neutron with an [n, 2n] neutron). Lastly, the random sampling technique for secondary particles remains completely independent of the sampled reaction, eliminating the ability to correlate secondary particles for a given reaction. To supplement these data libraries, additional codes and models describing certain nuclear reactions are employed. These codes can fill in the information missing from ACE, provide a better model to the true physics distribution, and can provide true correlated secondary particles, which has many useful applications in research and industry.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Delayed-Gamma Energy Biasing with Exact Energy Sampling in MCNP 6.2.0

Characterization of delayed-particle signatures is of the utmost importance for detecting, identifying, and quantifying special nuclear material (SNM). Various non-destructive assay (NDA) techniques used in nuclear material safeguards rely on characteristic gamma-ray or neutron emissions to infer properties of a material. The all-particle, all-energy Monte-Carlo radiation transport code MCNP6 is capable of simulating delayed-particle signatures from SNM in addition to modeling the transport of emitted particles to a detector or other instrument. In some cases, NDA techniques require the measurement of low probability emissions from a given material. In physical scenarios, this problem can be bypassed by longer count-times or may be simply irrelevant due to the mass, and therefore the total activity, of the material being measured. However, when applying the Monte-Carlo method to such scenarios, sampling of low probability emissions requires a large number of histories to converge to a statistically acceptable solution. To address this issue, the delayed-neutron and gamma energy biasing feature was introduced in MCNP6 by H. Armstrong et al. in 2013 which allows the user to set up energy windows in which delayed-particle emission sampling can be adjusted. For delayed-gamma sampling, this biasing method was based on the bin-wise structure of gamma emission data for both the multi-bin gamma and line-emission sampling modes. Recent improvements have been made to the line-emission sampling algorithm which upgrade the previous mini-bin sampling treatment to an exact energy-line treatment. This upgrade was not compatible with the biasing method implemented by H. Armstrong et al. due to the sampled data no longer having a bin-wise structure in line-emission mode. For this reason the delayed-gamma energy biasing feature has been rewritten to support the exact line-sampling treatment. This paper provides a description of the delayed-gamma energy biasing (DGEB) feature in MCNP6 as well as results and discussion for a gamma-ray spectroscopy example used to demonstrate the biasing utility. (authors)

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗