Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “predictability”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,783 records · Page 99
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Neural network based prediction of no-wall β N limits due to ideal external kink instabilities

Multi-layer perceptron based neural networks (NNs) are trained to predict the Troyon no-wall beta limits due to the onset of low-n (n = 1 – 3, n is the toroidal mode number) ideal external kink instabilities in tokamak plasmas. It is revealed that a well-trained NN can predict the n = 1 no-wall beta limit within 10% relative error. The NN performance is somewhat worse for the n = 2 and 3 no-wall beta limits, but still a relative error within 20% is achievable. The trained NNs well reproduce the known dependences of the no-wall beta limits on the plasma pressure (pressure peaking factor) and current (plasma internal inductance) profiles. Other scalings are further easily established with NNs, for parametric dependences such as on the aspect ratio, the elongation and triangularity of the plasma boundary shape. These NN-based Troyon beta limit predictors can be incorporated into integrated modeling platforms, or directly implemented as a real time stability estimator for the purpose of disruption avoidance or mitigation during experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Neural network based fast prediction of β N limits in HL-2M

Artificial neural networks (NNs) are trained, based on the numerical database, to predict the no-wall and ideal-wall β N limits, due to onset of the n = 1 ( n is the toroidal mode number) ideal external kink instability, for the HL-2M tokamak. The database is constructed by toroidal computations utilizing both the equilibrium code CHEASE (Lütjens et al 1992 Comput. Phys. Commun. 69 287) and the stability code MARS-F (Liu et al 2000 Phys. Plasmas 7 3681). The stability results show that (1) the plasma elongation generally enhances both β N limits, for either positive or negative triangularity plasmas; (2) the effect is more pronounced for positive triangularity plasmas; (3) the computed no-wall β N limit linearly scales with the plasma internal inductance, with the proportionality coefficient ranging between 1 and 5 for HL-2M; (4) the no-wall limit substantially decreases with increasing pressure peaking factor. Furthermore, both the NN model and the convolutional neural network (CNN) model are trained and tested, producing consistent results. The trained NNs predict both the no-wall and ideal-wall limits with as high as 95% accuracy, compared to those directly computed by the stability code. Additional test cases, produced by the Tokamak Simulation Code (Jardin et al 1993 Nucl. Fusion 33 371), also show reasonable performance of the trained NNs, with the relative error being within 10%. The constructed database provides effective references for the future HL-2M operations. The trained NNs can be used as a real-time monitor for disruption prevention in the HL-2M experiments, or serve as part of the integrated modeling tools for ideal kink stability analysis.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Predictions of m/n = 2/1 neoclassical tearing mode stabilization via high field side lower hybrid current drive on the DIII-D tokamak

Neoclassical tearing modes (NTMs) are a class of resistive instabilities that arise in tokamaks at rational surfaces and form magnetic islands. These islands flatten the pressure gradient, reducing plasma performance and may lead to disruptions if they grow large enough. Driving current within the island can stabilize the NTM, which has been achieved with electron cyclotron current drive (ECCD) on multiple devices. An alternative to ECCD is lower hybrid current drive (LHCD), which offers the advantages of increased current drive efficiency and reduced system cost. LHCD has been viewed as poorly suited for NTM suppression due to the large spatial extent of the driven current when in the multi-pass absorption regime (as has been the case in all past LHCD experiments). However, the driven current is more localized when in the single pass absorption regime, as is predicted for the DIII-D high field side (HFS) LHCD experiment. This work evaluates the feasibility of NTM suppression with HFS LHCD on DIII-D by predicting the island growth rate for a set of representative DIII-D plasmas via the modified Rutherford equation with and without the application of LHCD. In these plasmas, NTM suppression is achieved at reasonable power levels, even with finite misalignment between LH current and the island. The effect of current condensation was included and found to be most significant at smaller island sizes, assuming an experimentally typical temperature perturbation amplitude of 10%.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Nonequilibrium statistical mechanics and optimal prediction of partially-observed complex systems

Abstract Only a subset of degrees of freedom are typically accessible or measurable in real-world systems. As a consequence, the proper setting for empirical modeling is that of partially-observed systems. Notably, data-driven models consistently outperform physics-based models for systems with few observable degrees of freedom; e.g. hydrological systems. Here, we provide an operator-theoretic explanation for this empirical success. To predict a partially-observed system’s future behavior with physics-based models, the missing degrees of freedom must be explicitly accounted for using data assimilation and model parametrization. Data-driven models, in contrast, employ delay-coordinate embeddings and their evolution under the Koopman operator to implicitly model the effects of the missing degrees of freedom. We describe in detail the statistical physics of partial observations underlying data-driven models using novel maximum entropy and maximum caliber measures. The resulting nonequilibrium Wiener projections applied to the Mori–Zwanzig formalism reveal how data-driven models may converge to the true dynamics of the observable degrees of freedom. Additionally, this framework shows how data-driven models infer the effects of unobserved degrees of freedom implicitly, in much the same way that physics models infer the effects explicitly. This provides a unified implicit-explicit modeling framework for predicting partially-observed systems, with hybrid physics-informed machine learning methods combining both implicit and explicit aspects.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Towards testing the theory of gravity with DESI: summary statistics, model predictions and future simulation requirements

Shortly after its discovery, General Relativity (GR) was applied to predict the behavior of our Universe on the largest scales, and later became the foundation of modern cosmology. Its validity has been verified on a range of scales and environments from the Solar system to merging black holes. However, experimental confirmations of GR on cosmological scales have so far lacked the accuracy one would hope for — its applications on those scales being largely based on extrapolation and its validity there sometimes questioned in the shadow of the discovery of the unexpected cosmic acceleration. Future astronomical instruments surveying the distribution and evolution of galaxies over substantial portions of the observable Universe, such as the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI), will be able to measure the fingerprints of gravity and their statistical power will allow strong constraints on alternatives to GR. In this paper, based on a set of N-body simulations and mock galaxy catalogs, we study the predictions of a number of traditional and novel summary statistics beyond linear redshift distortions in two well-studied modified gravity models — chameleon f(R) gravity and a braneworld model — and the potential of testing these deviations from GR using DESI. These summary statistics employ a wide array of statistical properties of the galaxy and the underlying dark matter field, including two-point and higher-order statistics, environmental dependence, redshift space distortions and weak lensing. We find that they hold promising power for testing GR to unprecedented precision. The major future challenge is to make realistic, simulation-based mock galaxy catalogs for both GR and alternative models to fully exploit the statistic power of the DESI survey (by matching the volumes and galaxy number densities of the mocks to those in the real survey) and to better understand the impact of key systematic effects. Using these, we identify future simulation and analysis needs for gravity tests using DESI.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predicting the rotation profile in ITER

Determining the toroidal rotation for future tokamaks like ITER is a challenging and important problem. By combining empirical scalings for the intrinsic rotation at the top of the pedestal with the expected neutral beam torque and modeling of momentum transport, the toroidal rotation profile for ITER is predicted with TGYRO using TGLF (SAT0 and SAT1). On axis rotation exceeds 20 krad s –1 and the E x B shear is significant enough to reduce turbulent transport and significantly increase confinement and fusion power when comparing to cases that ignore the effect of rotation. Here, the prediction of the rotation at the top of the pedestal is made with increased confidence due to experiments and modeling in DIII-D that have determined the importance of fast-ion and neutral particle transport effects on intrinsic rotation at this location. In particular, the effect of neutral particles on momentum transport in the pedestal region is found to be insignificant.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Predicting tungsten erosion and leakage properties for the new V-shaped small angle slot divertor in DIII-D

Impurity transport modeling of the new tungsten (W)-coated, V-shaped small angle slot (SAS) divertor in the DIII-D tokamak was conducted using the SOLPS-ITER plasma edge code package and the DIVIMP impurity tracking code. The inboard baffle of the current SAS divertor will be shifted closer to the outboard baffle, creating a V-corner at the slot vertex. In addition, the outboard baffle will be coated with 10–15 μm of W for experiments studying high-Z sourcing and leakage in a closed divertor. Modeling of the 'SAS-VW' divertor predicts that these changes to the inner baffle will reduce W gross erosion by 40× relative to the existing SAS divertor when the outer strike point (OSP) is at the V-corner and the ion B × ∇B drift is towards the divertor, driven primarily by significant cooling near the slot vertex. Most W erosion in SAS-VW is expected to occur near the slot entrance, which may pose a higher risk to core contamination than W eroded deeper in the slot. Furthermore, adding a new sheath-based prompt redeposition model increases the sensitivity of redeposition estimates to near-target plasma conditions and may provide more accurate predictions of net erosion. Moving the OSP outboard from the slot vertex ~4 cm onto the W-coated region yields a 40× increase in the gross erosion rate and a 50% decrease in the core leakage fraction. Thus slight variations in strike point location may counteract the potential benefits of the tightly-baffled V slot on minimizing erosion. This impurity transport modeling provides useful guidance for future experiments on the SAS-VW divertor focused on high-Z erosion/redeposition, scrape-off layer transport, and core leakage.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Prediction of pellet mass thresholds for ELM triggering in low-collisionality, ITER-like discharges

Abstract In ITER, pellets are calculated to require more than 8 times the mass than currently planned to reliably trigger edge-localized modes (ELMs). Unmitigated heat flux impulses from ELMs are intolerable in ITER at full power and current. Therefore, ITER operation relies on multiple approaches to control ELM heat fluxes. One method is pellet ELM pacing to instigate small rapid ELMs with low heat flux. Predicting the performance of pellet pacing is critical for ITER, which is expected to operate in a regime with a low-collisionality, peeling-limited pedestal. However, to trigger ELMs the local pressure increase in the expanding pellet cloud pushes the equilibrium over the ballooning stability limit. In this work, linear and nonlinear M3D-C1 simulations are used to predict pellet mass thresholds in DIII-D discharges and ITER scenarios with peeling-limited pedestals. It is found that the distance of the equilibrium’s operational point from the ballooning branch of the pedestal stability boundary strongly changes thresholds. Linear M3D-C1 simulations find a strong dependence of the pellet mass threshold on the poloidal injection location for ITER’s 15 MA, Q = 10 scenario. The required pellet mass at the planned injection locations is 8 to 17 times larger than currently considered. However, such linear simulations do not include pellet ablation physics or time evolution of density and temperature. A new scheme of 2D nonlinear simulations, coupled with linear stability analysis at various steps throughout the nonlinear time evolution, was developed to include such physics and improve on the linear results. These new nonlinear-to-linear simulations confirm previous findings. This result suggests that pellet ELM triggering in ITER could require pellets much larger than those currently planned, which makes ELM-pacing operationally challenging. On the other hand, fueling pellets injected from the high-field side will likely not unintentionally trigger ELMs in an otherwise ELM-stable plasma.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tokamak edge localized mode onset prediction with deep neural network and pedestal turbulence

Abstract A neural network, BES-ELMnet, predicting a quasi-periodic disruptive eruption of the plasma energy and particles known as edge localized mode (ELM) onset is developed with observed pedestal turbulence from the beam emission spectroscopy system in DIII-D. BES-ELMnet has convolutional and fully-connected layers, taking two-dimensional plasma fluctuations with a temporal window of size 128 µ s and generating a scalar output which can be interpreted as a probability of the upcoming ELM onset. As approximately labeled inter-ELM broadband ( 15 kHz ⩽ f ⩽ 150 kHz ) fluctuations are given to the network, BES-ELMnet learns by itself ELM-related precursors arising before the onsets through supervised learning scheme. BES-ELMnet achieves the gradually increasing ELM onset probabilities between two consecutive ELMs during the inter-ELM phases and can forecast the first ELM onsets which occur after the high confinement mode transition. We further investigate the network generality in terms of the selected frequency band to ensure the use of BES-ELMnet for various operation regimes without changing the trained architecture. Therefore, our novel prediction method will enhance a proactive high confinement mode control of fusion-grade plasmas.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Heuristic predictions of RMP configurations for ELM suppression in ITER burning plasmas and their impact on divertor performance

Abstract A subspace of resonant magnetic perturbation (RMP) configurations for edge localized mode (ELM) suppression is predicted for H-mode burning plasmas at 15 MA current and 5.3 T magnetic field in ITER. Perturbations to the core plasma can be reduced by a factor of 2 for equivalent edge stability proxies, while the perturbed plasma boundary geometry remains mostly resilient. The striated domain of perturbed field lines connecting from the main plasma (normalized poloidal flux < 1 ) to the divertor targets is found to be significantly larger than the expected heat load width in the absence of RMPs. This facilitates heat load spreading with peak values at an acceptable level below 10 MW m − 2 on the outer target already at moderate gas fueling and low Ne seeding for additional radiative dissipation of the 100 MW of power into the scrape-off layer (SOL). On the inner target, however, re-attachment is predicted away from the equilibrium strike point due to increased upstream heat flux, higher downstream temperature and less efficient impurity radiation.

3D plasma boundary modeling↗
DOE OSTI2024

Gyrokinetic prediction of core tungsten peaking in a WEST plasma with nitrogen impurities

Tungsten peaking is predicted in the core of a WEST plasma with total-f gyrokinetic simulations, including both collisional and turbulent transport. This prediction is validated with a synthetic diagnostic of the bolometry. Although nitrogen impurities are shown to reduce the neoclassical peaking of tungsten on-axis, the overall tungsten peaking increases when nitrogen impurities are present, as they reduce the turbulence screening off-axis. This finding is important for the plasma current ramp-up phase of ITER, where light impurities seeding will be desirable to achieve low temperatures at the plasma-facing components and reduce tungsten sputtering. It provides further argument for applying early ECRH heating to maintain margins on the core power balance. The neoclassical peaking factor is cross-verified between XGC and FACIT. The heat flux at separatrix and the heat load width are modeled by XGC and compared to WEST data.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Artificial intelligence-based predictive modeling for imaging neutral particle analyzers on the DIII-D tokamak

The Imaging Neutral Particle Analyzer (INPA) at DIII-D is a diagnostic system used to accurately resolve the energy and spatial distributions of fast ions in fusion plasmas. A novel artificial intelligence (AI) technique named INPA-net is based on Reservoir Computing Networks and developed here to predict active and passive signals produced by charge-exchange reactions from injected and edge-cold neutrals, respectively, in magnetically confined fusion plasmas. This model is trained using a set of 21 time domain signals between 0 s to 3.35 s that includes injected beam and thermal plasma information, and 6444 real 2D experimental images of the INPA in 12 plasma discharges at DIII-D. The trained neural network is able to forecast experimental images in real-time. The model achieves an R-squared value of 0.91, which is higher than the 0.83 value achieved by a simple linear regression model. This improvement highlights the model's enhanced predictive accuracy for measured images from the validation set. This AI approach is valuable due to its rapid response times and potential for integration into real-time plasma control systems. A version of this model capable of generating syntehic images would be useful for the real-time monitoring of fast-ion transport. A comprehensive sensitivity study reveals that INPA-net maintains high performance even with variations in the input parameters, indicating the model's robustness and reliability. While developed for the INPA, the underlying architecture is adaptable and may be applied to various 2D imaging diagnostics in fusion research.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evidence of Kramer extrapolation inaccuracy for predicting high field Nb 3 Sn properties

Future applications requiring high magnetic fields, such as the proposed Future Circular Collider, demand a substantially higher critical current density, J c , at fields ≥16 T than is presently available in any commercial strand, so there is a strong effort to develop new routes to higher J c Nb 3 Sn. As a consequence, evaluating the irreversibility field (H irr ) of any new conductor to ensure reliable performance at these higher magnetic fields becomes essential. To predict the irreversibility field for Nb 3 Sn wires, critical current measurements, I c , are commonly performed in the 12-15 T range and the Kramer extrapolation is used to predict higher field properties. Here, the Kramer extrapolation typically models the contribution only for sparse grain boundary pinning, yet Nb 3 Sn wires rely on a high density of grain boundaries to provide the flux pinning that enables their high critical current density. However, whole-field range VSM measurements up to 30 T recently showed for Nb 3 Sn RRP® wires that the field dependence of the pinning force curve significantly deviates from the typical grain boundary shape, leading to a 1-2 T overestimation of Hirr when extrapolated from the typical mid-field data taken only up to about 15 T. In this work we characterized a variety of both RRP® and PIT Nb 3 Sn wires by transport measurements up to 29 T at the Laboratoire National des Champs Magnétiques Intenses (LNCMI), part of the European Magnetic Field Laboratory in Grenoble, to verify whether or not such overestimation is related to the measurement technique and whether or not it is a common feature across different designs. Indeed we also found that when measured in transport the 12-15 T Kramer extrapolation overestimates the actual H irr in both types of conductor with an inaccuracy of up to 1.6 T, confirming that high field characterization is a necessary tool to evaluate the actual high field performance of each Nb 3 Sn wire.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Impact of Nuclear Physics Uncertainties on Galactic Chemical Evolution Predictions

Modeling the evolution of the elements in the Milky Way is a multidisciplinary and challenging task. In addition to simulating the ~13 billion years evolution of our Galaxy, chemical evolution simulations must keep track of the elements synthesized and ejected from every astrophysical site of interest (e.g., supernova, compact binary merger). The elemental abundances of such ejecta, which are a fundamental input for chemical evolution codes, are usually taken from theoretical nucleosynthesis calculations performed by the nuclear astrophysics community. Therefore, almost all chemical evolution predictions rely on the nuclear physics behind those calculations. In this proceedings article, we highlight the impact of nuclear physics uncertainties on galactic chemical evolution predictions. We demonstrate that nuclear physics and galactic evolution uncertainties both have a significant impact on interpreting the origin of neutron-capture elements in our Solar System. Those results serve as a motivation to create and maintain collaborations between the fields of nuclear astrophysics and galaxy evolution.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Can socio-economic indicators of vulnerability help predict spatial variations in the duration and severity of power outages due to tropical cyclones?

Abstract Tropical cyclones are the leading cause of major power outages in the U.S., and their effects can be devastating for communities. However, few studies have holistically examined the degree to which socio-economic variables can explain spatial variations in disruptions and reveal potential inequities thereof. Here, we apply machine learning techniques to analyze 20 tropical cyclones and predict county-level outage duration and percentage of customers losing power using a comprehensive set of weather, environmental, and socio-economic factors. Our models are able to accurately predict these outage response variables, but after controlling for the effects of weather conditions and environmental factors in the models, we find the effects of socio-economic variables to be largely immaterial. However, county-level data could be overlooking effects of socio-economic disparities taking place at more granular spatial scales, and we must remain aware of the fact that when faced with similar outage events, socio-economically vulnerable communities will still find it more difficult to cope with disruptions compared to less vulnerable ones.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predicting weather impacts on corn production in a data-limited region using a transfer learning approach

The stability of food supply and prices may depend more on annual changes in yields from year-to-year variability in weather than on longer-term average changes from changing climatic conditions. However, the absence of high-quality data on crop yields at fine spatial resolutions in many regions of the world makes it challenging to statistically model their response to interannual variability in weather patterns. Therefore, there is a need for empirical methods that can project annual crop yield changes even in limited data regions. Here, we propose a transfer learning algorithm that uses high spatial resolution data from one region to project yields in another region with more limited data. The goal of our work is to understand what data types can be beneficial for transferring learning from a source region to a very different target region with more limited data. We utilize Long Short-Term Memory to develop a transfer learning model that is trained on historical county-level corn yield in the United States and predicts district-level corn yield variations in India. Even using smaller amounts of data in India, simulating a data-scarce region, we achieve an average root mean square error of 0.48 bu acre−1 in predicting interannual yield variations. Using Shapley values to interpret results, we explore the contribution of the different weather parameters to interannual yield variability and find a larger influence of precipitation-related variables. Our study demonstrates the usefulness of this method for transferring models of weather impacts on crop yields trained on a data-rich country to one with more limited data. It suggests the potential of applying the transfer learning model to mitigate the need for extensive raw data globally.

Vishwakarma, Srishti [ORNL] (ORCID:000000031674419↗
DOE OSTI2026

On the uncertainties in helium generation predictions for fission and fusion alloys

With ongoing advances in fusion and advanced fission reactors, quantifying irradiation effects in materials is critical. Transmutation-induced helium in cladding and structural materials can drive swelling and embrittlement, thereby reducing these components’ lifespans. Yet most studies ignore the considerable uncertainties in predicting helium generation rates. In this work, we created a code wrapper, F-SCATTER, that automatically performs simulations in FISPACT-II. We used this tool to investigate potential variance in helium generation rate, or He/dpa, calculations based on deviations in alloy composition, irradiating neutron flux spectrum, computational methodology, and nuclear data sources. We used 12 wt% Cr HT9 steel as the reference case and observed a 6.5%–98.3% He/dpa spread based on compositional variation within a single chemical specification, a 1.8%–11.5% He/dpa variation upon the incorporation of a 15% artificial uncertainty in flux at each energy, and a He/dpa difference as high as 231% when using ENDF/B-VIII.0 versus TENDL-2021 data libraries. Similar results were found for other prominent iron-based alloys, including Grade 91, castable nano-structured alloy, and 316H—where additional variations exist based on reactor type (e.g. thermal, fast, or fusion) and alloying elements such as carbon, nitrogen, and nickel. Based on the simulated results, we conclude that a significant part of the heat-to-heat variability in swelling responses of Fe-based alloys can be driven by impurity content in alloy compositions, and, therefore, chemical control should be a key element in supply chain design for advanced nuclear energy systems. Furthermore, we provide critical recommendations on best practices for evaluating and reporting helium production and lattice damage rates when computing predictions with multiphysics programs such as FISPACT-II.

FISPACT-II↗
DOE OSTI2022

Photon detection probability prediction using one-dimensional generative neural network

Abstract Photon detection is important for liquid argon detectors for direct dark matter searches or neutrino property measurements. Precise simulation of photon transport is widely used to understand the probability of photon detection in liquid argon detectors. Traditional photon transport simulation, which tracks every photon using the Geant4 simulation toolkit, is a major computational challenge for kilo-tonne-scale liquid argon detectors and GeV-level energy depositions. In this work, we propose a one-dimensional generative model which efficiently generates features using an O u t e r P r o d u c t -layer. This model bypasses photon transport simulation and predicts the number of photons detected by particular photon detectors at the same level of detail as the Geant4 simulation. The application to simulating photon detection systems in kilo-tonne-scale liquid argon detectors demonstrates this novel generative model is able to reproduce Geant4 simulation with good accuracy and 20 to 50 times faster. This generative model can be used to quickly predict photon detection probability in huge liquid argon detectors like ProtoDUNE or DUNE.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗