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At least 1,783 records · Page 99

A Causal Inference Model Based on Random Forests to Identify the Effect of Soil Moisture on Precipitation

Soil moisture influences precipitation mainly through its impact on land–atmosphere interactions. Understanding and correctly modeling soil moisture–precipitation (SM–P) coupling is crucial for improving weather forecasting and subseasonal to seasonal climate predictions, especially when predicting the persistence and magnitude of drought. However, the sign and spatial structure of SM–P feedback are still being debated in the climate research community, mainly due to the difficulty in establishing causal relationships and the high degree of nonlinearity in land–atmosphere processes. To this end, we developed a causal inference model based on the Granger causality analysis and a nonlinear machine learning model. This model includes three steps: nonlinear anomaly decomposition, nonlinear Granger causality analysis, and evaluation of the quality of SM–P feedback, which eliminates the nonlinear response of interannual and seasonal variability and the memory effects of climatic factors and isolates the causal relationship of local SM–P feedback. We applied this model by using National Climate Assessment–Land Data Assimilation System (NCA-LDAS) datasets over the United States. Here, the results highlight the importance of nonlinear atmosphere responses in land–atmosphere interactions. In addition, the strong feedback over the southwestern United States and the Great Plains both highlight the impacts of topographic factors rather than only the sensitivity of evapotranspiration to soil moisture. Furthermore, the SM–P index defined by our framework is used to benchmark Earth system models (ESMs), which provides a new metric for efficiently identifying potential model biases in modeling local land–atmosphere interactions and may help the development of ESMs in improving simulations of water cycle variability and extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mycorrhiza better predict soil fungal community composition and function than aboveground traits in temperate forest ecosystems

We sampled soil in the organic and mineral horizons beneath two AM-associated (Fraxinus americana, Thuja occidentalis) and two ECM-associated tree species (Betula alleghaniensis, and Tsuga canadensis), with an evergreen and deciduous species in each mycorrhizal group. To characterize fungal communities and organic matter decomposition beneath each tree species, we sequenced the ITS1 region of fungal DNA and measured the potential activity of carbon and nitrogen-targeting extracellular enzymes. Each tree species harbored distinct fungal communities, supporting the need to consider both mycorrhizal type and leaf habit. However, between tree characteristics, mycorrhizal type better predicted fungal communities. Across fungal guilds, saprotrophic fungi were the most important group in shaping fungal community differences in soils beneath all tree species. The effect of leaf habit on carbon and nitrogen-targeting hydrolytic enzymes depended on tree mycorrhizal association in the organic horizon, while oxidative enzyme activities were higher beneath EcM-associated trees across both soil horizons and leaf habits. These data include extracellular hydrolytic and oxidative enzyme activities, ITS sequencing fungal community data, soil carbon to nitrogen, and soil pH. Site level data include climate (mean annual temperature, precipitation), elevation, and soil series and order information.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hot Droughts and Forest Tree Dynamics in the Amazon - Statistical Models, Scripts, Data, and Outputs

This package contains data, outputs, equations, and R scripts for analyses for manuscript entitled "Hot droughts in the Amazon: A window to a future hypertropical climate" by J. Chambers et al., in particular it contains statistical models and analyses for the INPA BIONTE tree mortality study. The Models folder contains details for all statistical models in PDF files. The Scripts folder contains the R scripts for Bayesian Hierarchical Models (two text files) and SEMs (one text file) are separate and reasonably annotated. All data associated with these scripts are in the data folder. The Data folder contains two of the three CSV files used for the analyses and are called by the R scripts. Two of them are part of published datasets (`BIONTE_mortality-rates.csv` from Lima et al. 2024, DOI:10.15486/ngt/1898910 and `SPEI.csv` from Pastorello et al. 2023 DOI:10.15486/ngt/1958257) and also provided in this package for convenience (please see the corresponding datasets for usage and citation terms). The third dataset (`BIONTE_gapfilled_wd.csv`) contains sensitive information and can be obtained by contacting the manuscript lead author. The Outputs folder contains the two output files that provide extra information about the analyses. The file `figuresFeb2025d.pdf` contains all the figures from the manuscript - captions are in the manuscript. The file `ChambersMS.pdf` contains primary results from Bayesian statistical models, regression analyses, and validation steps applied to the tree mortality data from the INPA experiments. The document includes visual summaries, model diagnostics, and leave-one-out (LOO) validation results. A breakdown of file contents can be found in the README file that is part of this package.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

SPRUCE: Shrub-Layer Vegetation Biomass Collection Metadata, Marcell Experimental Forest, Minnesota, August 2025

This data set contains metadata associated with shrub-layer vegetation samples collected from the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Environments (SPRUCE) experiment in August 2025. This sample metadata contains no analytical results and is a reference for analytical datasets. To ensure accessibility and discoverability, each sample was assigned an International Generic Sample Number (IGSN), a persistent identifier, using System for Earth and Extraterrestrial Sample Registration (SESAR). These samples were used for downstream analysis by multiple teams of researchers the results of which will be reported separately. This dataset contains one data file in comma separate (.csv) format. Additional metadata are provided: one data dictionary and a file-level metadata file in comma separate (.csv) format and a user guide in PDF (*.pdf) format. An aliquot of most samples is stored in the SPRUCE archive and may be available for further analysis by request. See below under 7 Sample Access. Access this collection event on SESAR https://doi.org/10.58052/IEJ9B069L. To inquire about obtaining archived samples for analysis, reach out using the Contact Sample Owner form located on the bottom of the landing page in SESAR.

Birkebak, Joshua [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000955611494)↗

Root responses to warming and hurricane disturbances in a wet tropical forest of Puerto Rico: R code and data

The purpose of this data was to generate a scientific article that describes the responses of tropical roots to a warming experiment and to the effect of two consecutive hurricanes in Puerto Rico (Yaffar et al. in review). This data is from 10 months of minirhizotron images taken every 2 weeks at the experimental warming Tropical Responses to Altered Climate Experiment (TRACE) plots in Puerto Rico before and after Hurricanes Irma and Maria. This project has 3 warmed plots (plot 2,4,6) and 3 control plots (plot 1,3,5) with 2 minirhizotron tubes at each plot. As part of the data, there is also root data taken from cores and in-growth cores. Additionally, there is soil nutrient concentration data, soil microclimate, total leaf area, and canopy openness taken by Reed et al. 2020, and the TRACE census. Data files are in CSV format and the R code included in this package can be used with R 3.4.4 (R Core Team and contributors worldwide).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sensitive Resources Assessment and Forest Analysis for The SSP-2A Parcel and Proposed Oak Ridge Enhanced Technology and Training Center (ORETTC), Oak Ridge, Tennessee

This report summarizes current knowledge of natural and cultural resources associated with potential land use changes within an 81-acre (32.8-hectare) parcel, termed SSP-2A, on the US Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) in Oak Ridge, Tennessee (Figure 1). A primary goal for the work presented here was to evaluate potential impacts to sensitive resources within the SSP-2A parcel that might result from land disturbance and construction of the Oak Ridge Enhanced Technology and Training Center (ORETTC). In addition to on-the-ground surveys of the ORETTC footprint and SSP-2A parcel during summer 2020 (Figure 1), this report leverages historical (pre-1995) and contemporary (1995–present) data from additional sources such as the Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation (TDEC). The individuals who obtained and compiled the data that are presented here are familiar with and routinely assess, manage, and research sensitive resources on the ORR. This report should facilitate more environmentally sound decisions during planning and development of the ORETTC, provide a foundation for further assessment of sensitive and cultural resources associated with the broader SSP-2A parcel (should additional actions take place), and help project managers address regulatory guidance and DOE policy on sustainable development. Those who reference this report must consider that the timing of surveys does not permit complete delineation of resources. Data deficiencies are indicated where possible. Additional surveys may be required to account for seasonal patterns of various threatened and endangered species (e.g., bats), and additional assessment will be required if activities extend beyond the ORETTC site (Figure 2).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Climate Forcing & Feedbacks by Fires, Forests, Fossil Energy & Food Production: Observations are Key to Predictions [Slides]

Human emitted GHGs (long lived, cumulative) that trap more heat (IR) and aerosols (short lived, steady) that reflect sunlight (Vis) have altered Earth’s radiation budget and warmed our climate measurably and predictably. Our complex dynamic climate system has trapped 400 ZettaJ (10 21 ) and has many positive feedbacks. Regions are changing at unprecedented rates and crossing thresholds as BAU will lock us into 8.5 W m -2 in 2100.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Air classification of forest residue for tissue and ash separation efficiency

The goal of this Case Study was to evaluate the performance of air classification of logging residues toward meeting conversion CMAs for carbon and ash contents, as compared to the static status quo Base Case system in which the residues are first dried and then ground in a hammer mill with a 6 mm screen and fines < 1.18 mm are removed. Also considered were moisture and ash impacts on throughput and Overall Operating Effectiveness (OOE), as well as delivered feedstock cost and minimum fuel selling price (MFSP). Laboratory data on the impacts of fan speed and moisture content on the separation efficiency of soil ash, needles and bark from white wood were received from FCIC Subtask 5.2. Average throughput and energy consumption data were obtained from the Bioenergy Feedstock National User Facility (BFNUF) for the same air classifier. These data were utilized to develop the necessary response surface equations to perform throughput analysis using discrete event simulation. Because the Base Case status quo system utilizes drying prior to grinding, we modeled the Case Study with drying prior to air classification and subsequent grinding of the separated white wood to isolate the individual quality and cost impacts of air classification relative to the Base Case system. Key takeaways from this Case Study are that air classification improves the quality of the final material, but increases the production cost, especially when lights are disposed; this becomes a tradeoff between increased conversion yield and the extra cost. Removing material should be done as early in the process as possible. Each operation that occurs prior to removing the material increases the cost of the disposed material and leads to wasted energy expenditures. As processes are included or modified, the impact on monetary and energy cost should be included in the decision process. Identifying alternative uses and the associated value for material that is separated from the feedstock stream will have a significant impact on the delivered cost of the material. Although there was an increase in production cost by adding air classification, there was a resulting benefit to the MFSP when meeting or exceeding all of the conversion CMAs; this was an important finding that should be explored further with FCIC Subtask 8.3 and potentially FCIC Task 6.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Understanding Building Energy Use in the Evansville and the Shawnee National Forest Area: Basic Building Stock Characterization

This report is part of a publication series that focuses on approximately 100 different local geographies, or "clusters." Each report provides commercial and multifamily building characteristic and energy data for a local geography, with the intention of helping policymakers at the city, county and state levels better understand building energy use. Specifically, this report breaks down the building stock in the counties shown in Figure 1 by building type, size, energy consumption, and emissions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗