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NASA NTRS2014

Quantified Energy Dissipation Rates in the Terrestrial Bow Shock: Waves and Dissipation - 2

We present the first quantified measure of the energy dissipation rates, due to wave-particle interactions, in the transition region of the Earth's collision-less bow shock using data from the Time History of Events and Macro-Scale Interactions during Sub-Storms spacecraft. Our results show that wave-particle interactions can regulate the global structure and dominate the energy dissipation of collision-less shocks. In every bow shock crossing examined, we observed both low-frequency (less than 10 hertz) and high-frequency (approximately or greater than10 hertz) electromagnetic waves throughout the entire transition region and into the magnetosheath. The low-frequency waves were consistent with magnetosonic-whistler waves. The high-frequency waves were combinations of ion-acoustic waves, electron cyclotron drift instability driven waves, electrostatic solitary waves, and whistler mode waves. The high-frequency waves had the following: (1) peak amplitudes exceeding delta B approximately equal to 10 nanoteslas and delta E approximately equal to 300 millivolts per meter, though more typical values were delta B approximately equal to 0.1-1.0 nanoteslas and delta E approximately equal to 10-50 millivolts per meter (2) Poynting fluxes in excess of 2000 microWm(sup −2) (micro-waves per square meter) (typical values were approximately 1-10 microWm(sup −2) (micro-waves per square meter); (3) resistivities greater than 9000 omega meters; and (4) associated energy dissipation rates greater than 10 microWm(sup −3) (micro-waves per cubic meter). The dissipation rates due to wave-particle interactions exceeded rates necessary to explain the increase in entropy across the shock ramps for approximately 90 percent of the wave burst durations. For approximately 22 percent of these times, the wave-particle interactions needed to only be less than or equal to 0.1 percent efficient to balance the nonlinear wave steepening that produced the shock waves. These results show that wave-particle interactions have the capacity to regulate the global structure and dominate the energy dissipation of collision-less shocks.

Terrestrial bow 2↗

DOE OSTI2025

Decarbonization and technology cost drivers: considerations for potential future thermoelectric water use in the power sector

The power sector is currently undergoing significant changes, driven by a combination of factors, including decarbonization and technology innovation. This study aims to assess implications of these drivers on U.S. power sector technology futures and the associated water and environmental implications for cooling thermoelectric power plants. Specifically, we evaluate four decarbonization scenarios for the contiguous United States that vary in assumptions concerning demand growth and technology costs, with technology costs driving alternative outcomes that prioritize either technologies that require low amounts of water (such as wind, solar, and battery) or high amounts of water (such as nuclear and carbon capture and storage). These scenarios are executed in a power sector capacity expansion model and compared to two reference scenarios that assume status quo with policy and cost drivers. Our analysis indicates that future U.S. thermoelectric water withdrawals could decrease by 25%–60%, but water consumption could more than triple in some scenarios. These changes are driven by a combination of retirement of some power facilities, shifts in cooling technologies, and new technology deployment. The water use patterns vary across the United States, with the eastern regions demonstrating a lot more variability in water consumption across scenarios than western regions. However, local concerns can influence these possible investments, since increased water consumption can exacerbate water scarcity, leading to conflicts among competing users and affecting regional social, environmental, and economic dynamics. Future work should consider possible costs associated with alternate water sources, as well as improve the representation of water constraints within simulations. Inclusion of extreme events and alternate modeling platforms (e.g. production cost modeling and resource adequacy) may also be warranted to further stress test the robustness of these possible technology futures. Such assessments will be critical for ensuring decarbonization and other infrastructure-oriented investments lead to a reliable and resilient power grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Ion Manipulation from Liquid Xe to Vacuum: Ba-Tagging for a nEXO Upgrade and Future 0 νββ Experiments

Neutrinoless double beta decay (0𝜈𝛽𝛽) provides a way to probe physics beyond the Standard Model of particle physics. The upcoming nEXO experiment will search for 0𝜈𝛽𝛽 decay in 136 Xe with a projected half-life sensitivity exceeding 10 28 years at the 90% confidence level using a liquid xenon (LXe) Time Projection Chamber (TPC) filled with 5 tonnes of Xe enriched to ∼90% in the 𝛽𝛽-decaying isotope 136 Xe. In parallel, a potential future upgrade to nEXO is being investigated with the aim to further suppress radioactive backgrounds and to confirm 𝛽𝛽-decay events. This technique, known as Ba-tagging, comprises extracting and identifying the 𝛽𝛽-decay daughter 136 Ba ion. One tagging approach being pursued involves extracting a small volume of LXe in the vicinity of a potential 𝛽𝛽-decay using a capillary tube and facilitating a liquid-to-gas phase transition by heating the capillary exit. The Ba ion is then separated from the accompanying Xe gas using a radio-frequency (RF) carpet and RF funnel, conclusively identifying the ion as 136 Ba via laser-fluorescence spectroscopy and mass spectrometry. Simultaneously, an accelerator-driven Ba ion source is being developed to validate and optimize this technique. The motivation for the project, the development of the different aspects, along with the current status and results, are discussed here.

a-tagging↗

NASA NTRS1984

A model for equatorial explosive spread F

Explosive spread F was first described by Woodman and LaHoz (1976). In such events the 50 MHz radar signal rises at Jicamarca to 10-20 dB above the noise level within a few milliseconds but then disappears within 100 ms or less. It has been suggested that electric fields from thunderstorms might drive a plasma instability which could cause these echoes, and recent observations (Woodman and Kudeki, 1984) provide convincing evidence for this triggering. Here, the instability mechanism is discussed and it is shown that transient thunderstorm electric fields comparable to those recently observed by rockets in the midlatitude ionosphere could excite a rapidly growing two-stream plasma instability that is driven by the ExB drift of the F region electrons in the short period (less than the ion gyroperiod) before the ions reach the same velocity.

Kelley, M. C.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Propagation of beam-driven VLF waves from the ionosphere toward the ground

As part of the Cooperative High Altitude Rocket Gun Experiment (CHARGE-2B) rocket mission, an electron beam was injected into the ionosphere with a modulated beam current in an effort to generate very low frequency (VLF) waves. The propagation of the beam-driven VLF waves through the ionosphere is examined here to determine whether it is possible to detect these wave emissions with ground receivers. The paths of the VLF waves from where they were generated near the rocket were followed to the bottom of the ionosphere and the decrease in wave amplitude due to wave-particle resonance and collisional damping was calculated. It was found that due to collisional damping, which for these VLF waves becomes large at altitudes below about 150 km, wave amplitudes were decreased below the background atmospheric noise level. A number of different beam injection events have been examined and in all of these cases studied the waves were sufficiently damped such that detection on the ground would not be possible. This is in agreement with observations on the ground in which no wave emissions were observed during the CHARGE-2B mission. Control parameters that would be more favorable for beam-generated VLF propagation to the ground are discussed for future experiments of this type.

Schriver, David↗

DOE OSTI2017

Regional distribution of large blowdown patches across Amazonia in 2005 caused by a single convective squall line: Distribution of Amazonia Blowdown Damage

In mid-January 2005 a convective squall line traversed 4.5 × 10 6 km 2 of Amazonia from southwest to northeast. As seen in Landsat images, this atypical convective storm left blowdown imprints with diffuse geometry, unlike the fan-shaped wind disturbance of much more frequent east-to-west propagating squall lines. Previous work reported 0.2% of the forest area damaged by this one relatively rare event within one Landsat image and assumed similar disturbance across the entire traverse. Here, we mapped convective wind damage impact to the region in 2005 by identifying large-scale (>4 ha) blowdown imprints in 30 Landsat images. The diffuse-type imprints associated with this single squall line contributed up to 60–72% of total 2005 wind-disturbed area detected across the region, but damage was highly concentrated in central Amazonia. Consequently, the distribution of large wind damage patches in 2005 across Amazonia was very different from long-term average. In conclusion, tegional distribution of wind-driven tree mortality for smaller patch sizes remains unknown.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Particle entrainment in dead-end pores by diffusiophoresis

The transport of particulate matter to and from dead-end pores is difficult to achieve due to confinement effects. Diffusiophoresis is a phenomenon that results in the controlled motion of colloids along solute concentration gradients. Therefore, by establishing an electrolyte concentration gradient within dead-end pores, it is possible to induce the flow of particles into and out of the pores via diffusiophoresis, as has been demonstrated recently. In this paper, we explain the pore-scale mechanism by which individual colloids are entrained in dead-end pores by diffusiophoresis. We flow particles past a series of dead-end pores in the presence of a solute concentration gradient. Our results reveal that particles execute pore-to-pore hops before ultimately being captured. We categorize an event as particle capture when the particle's trajectory terminates within the dead-end pore. Experiments and numerical simulations demonstrate that particle capture only occurs when flowing particles are positioned sufficiently close to the pore entry. Outside this capture region, the particles have insufficient diffusiophoretic velocities to induce capture and their dynamics are largely dominated by their free-stream advective velocities. We observe that the particles move closer to the device wall as they hop, thereby reducing the effect of flow advection and increasing that of diffusiophoresis. Lastly, these results enhance our understanding of suspension dynamics in a driven system and have implications for the development, design, and optimization of diffusiophoretic platforms for drug delivery, cosmetics, and material recovery.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Insights into regulatory T-cell and type-I interferon roles in determining abacavir-induced hypersensitivity or immune tolerance

Introduction Clinical use of several small molecule drugs may lead to severe T-cell-mediated idiosyncratic drug hypersensitivity reactions (iDHR) linked to HLA alleles, including abacavir (ABC) with HLA-B*57:01. Due to study limitations in humans, pathogenic networks in iDHR remain elusive. HLA transgenic murine models have been proposed to bridge knowledge gaps in tolerance and susceptibility to drugs. Methods Mice expressing HLA-B*57:01 and Foxp3-DTR/EGFP were generated to selectively deplete regulatory T-cells (Treg) with diphtheria toxin. ABC was administered for 8 days alone or together with cell- and cytokine-depleting antibodies. Cellular and transcriptomic responses were analyzed by RNA, flow cytometry and fluorescence methods. Results While CD8 + T-cell responses to ABC require HLA presentation, ABC also triggered mitochondrial stress in macrophagesin vitro, independently of HLA.In vivo, Treg were the primary mechanism of drug tolerance controlling HLA presentation and costimulation by antigen presenting cells. Treg ablation uncovered immune adverse events linked to activation and proliferation of both drug-specific and bystander CD8 + T-cells through CD28-mediated pathways with support from CD4 + non-Treg. Type-I interferon (IFN-I) and cellular-stress pathways influenced the fate of lymph node cells responding to ABC, implicating innate immune cells such as macrophages and plasmacytoid dendritic cells in the development of T-cell responses against the drug. IFN-I and IL-2 were necessary for CD8 + T-cell differentiation and ABC-induced adverse reactions. Conclusions This study unveils novel immune mechanisms driven by drug and host-related factors required forin vivoreactions and sheds light on potential biomarker and therapeutic targets for managing and preventing severe and life-threatening iDHR.

Immunology↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Data-driven, Physics-based Transport Model of Solar Energetic Particles Accelerated by Coronal Mass Ejection Shocks Propagating through the Solar Coronal and Heliospheric Magnetic Fields

Abstract In an effort to develop computational tools for predicting radiation hazards from solar energetic particles (SEPs), we have created a data-driven physics-based particle transport model to calculate the injection, acceleration, and propagation of SEPs from coronal mass ejection (CME) shocks traversing through the solar corona and interplanetary magnetic fields. The model runs on an input of corona and heliospheric plasma and magnetic field configuration from a magnetohydrodynamic model driven by solar photospheric magnetic field measurements superposed with observed CME shocks determined from coronagraph images. SEP source particles are injected at the shock using the result of diffusive shock acceleration formulation from a characteristic obliquity-dependent injection from a heated solar wind thermal tail population. With several advanced computation techniques involving stochastic simulation and integration, the model obtains the particle intensity at any location in interplanetary space through the rigorous solution to the time-dependent 5D focus transport equation in the phase space that includes perpendicular diffusion. We apply the model to the 2011 November 3 CME event. The calculation results reproduce multispacecraft SEP observations at Earth and STEREO-B reasonably well without normalization of particle flux. The observations at STEREO-A can be reproduced by rescaling particle energy or modified energy dependence of particle diffusion coefficients. This circumsolar SEP event seen by spacecraft at Earth, STEREO-A, and STEREO-B at widely separated longitudes can be explained by diffusive shock acceleration by a single CME shock with a moderate speed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2023

A Data-driven, Physics-based Transport Model of Solar Energetic Particles Accelerated by Coronal Mass Ejection Shocks Propagating through the Solar Coronal and Heliospheric Magnetic Fields

In an effort to develop computational tools for predicting radiation hazards from solar energetic particles (SEPs), we have created a data-driven physics-based particle transport model to calculate the injection, acceleration, and propagation of SEPs from coronal mass ejection (CME) shocks traversing through the solar corona and interplanetary magnetic fields. The model runs on an input of corona and heliospheric plasma and magnetic field configuration from a magnetohydrodynamic model driven by solar photospheric magnetic field measurements superposed with observed CME shocks determined from coronagraph images. SEP source particles are injected at the shock using the result of diffusive shock acceleration formulation from a characteristic obliquity-dependent injection from a heated solar wind thermal tail population. With several advanced computation techniques involving stochastic simulation and integration, the model obtains the particle intensity at any location in interplanetary space through the rigorous solution to the time-dependent 5D focus transport equation in the phase space that includes perpendicular diffusion. We apply the model to the 2011 November 3 CME event. The calculation results reproduce multispacecraft SEP observations at Earth and STEREO-B reasonably well without normalization of particle flux. The observations at STEREO-A can be reproduced by rescaling particle energy or modified energy dependence of particle diffusion coefficients. This circumsolar SEP event seen by spacecraft at Earth, STEREO-A, and STEREO-B at widely separated longitudes can be explained by diffusive shock acceleration by a single CME shock with a moderate speed.

Solar energetic particles↗

DOE OSTI2022

Flux Eruption Events Drive Angular Momentum Transport in Magnetically Arrested Accretion Flows

We evolve two high-resolution general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic simulations of advection-dominated accretion flows around nonspinning black holes (BHs), each over a duration ~3 × 10 5 GM BH /c 3 . One model captures the evolution of a weakly magnetized (SANE) disk and the other that of a magnetically arrested disk (MAD). Magnetic flux eruptions in the MAD model push out gas from the disk and launch strong winds with outflow efficiencies at times reaching 10% of the incoming accretion power. Despite the substantial power in these winds, average mass outflow rates remain low out to a radius ~100GM BH /c 2 , only reaching ~60%–80% of the horizon accretion rate. The average outward angular momentum transport is primarily radial in both modes of accretion, but with a clear distinction: magnetic flux eruption–driven disk winds cause a strong vertical flow of angular momentum in the MAD model, while for the SANE model, the magnetorotational instability (MRI) moves angular momentum mostly equatorially through the disk. Further, we find that the MAD state is highly transitory and nonaxisymmetric, with the accretion mode often changing to a SANE-like state following an eruption before reattaining magnetic flux saturation with time. The Reynolds stress changes directions during such transitions, with the MAD (SANE) state showing an inward (outward) stress, possibly pointing to intermittent MRI-driven accretion in MADs. Pinning down the nature of flux eruptions using next-generation telescopes will be crucial in understanding the flow of mass, magnetic flux, and angular momentum in sub-Eddington accreting BHs like M87* and Sagittarius A*.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Ideal conductor/dielectric model (ICDM): A generalized technique to correct for finite-size effects in molecular simulations of hindered ion transport

Molecular simulations serve as indispensable tools for investigating the kinetics and elucidating the mechanism of hindered ion transport across nanoporous membranes. In particular, recent advancements in advanced sampling techniques have made it possible to access translocation timescales spanning several orders of magnitude. In our prior study [Shoemaker et al., J. Chem. Theory Comput. 18, 7142 (2022)], we identified significant finite size artifacts in simulations of pressure-driven hindered ion transport through nanoporous graphitic membranes. We introduced the ideal conductor model, which effectively corrects for such artifacts by assuming the feed to be an ideal conductor. In the present work, we introduce the ideal conductor dielectric model (Icdm), a generalization of our earlier model, which accounts for the dielectric properties of both the membrane and the filtrate. Using the Icdm model substantially enhances the agreement among corrected free energy profiles obtained from systems of varying sizes, with notable improvements observed in regions proximate to the pore exit. Moreover, the model has the capability to consider secondary ion passage events, including the transport of a co-ion subsequent to the traversal of a counter-ion, a feature that is absent in our original model. We also investigate the sensitivity of the new model to various implementation details. The Icdm model offers a universally applicable framework for addressing finite size artifacts in molecular simulations of ion transport. It stands as a significant advancement in our quest to use molecular simulations to comprehensively understand and manipulate ion transport processes through nanoporous membranes.

Chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2021

Shear Strength and Release of Large Cryogenic Pellets from the Barrel of a Shattered Pellet Injector for Disruption Mitigation

Shattered pellet injection (SPI) has been chosen as the baseline disruption mitigation system on ITER due to its ability to rapidly inject material deep into the plasma to greatly increase the plasma density and radiate the thermal energy. SPI utilizes a mechanical punch or high-pressure gas to release and accelerate a pellet that has been cryogenically desublimated in the barrel of a pipe gun. Various material injection combinations could possibly be implemented during different phases of a disruption event to radiate plasma energy, reduce electromagnetic loads on machine components, avoid the formation of runaway electrons, or to dissipate runaway electrons that form. Each injection phase could possibly utilize combinations of deuterium, neon, or argon. In this paper we outline experimental measurements of pellet material shear strength at SPI operating temperatures to understand the force needed to release SPI pellets. Deuterium, neon, argon, and deuterium-neon mixture pellets with diameters of 8.5, 12.5, and 15.7 mm are formed at a range of relevant gas pressures and temperatures and dislodged from the cold zone with a slow-moving piston driven by a motor. The slow-moving piston is kept above the triple point temperature of the material while the pellet is forming, then cooled to below the triple point temperature before contacting the pellet to minimize any thermal conduction to the pellet. The piston incorporates a load cell to measure the force applied when the pellet breaks away from the cold zone in the barrel.The ability of the gas and punch methods to exceed the shear strength of the studied pellet materials for release has been analyzed. High pressure gas delivered by fast opening valves produce pressure shock to the pellet due to supersonic expansion of the propellant gas. Pressure (and therefore, force) oscillations are present due to transverse density propagation throughout the breech volume. Mechanical punches deliver an impact force through a high-kinetic energy impact. The effect of the mechanical shock on the pellet has been explored and will be presented in this paper. Scaling to larger ITER size SPI pellets will be described.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2017

Gluino reach and mass extraction at the LHC in radiatively-driven natural SUSY

Radiatively-driven natural SUSY (RNS) models enjoy electroweak naturalness at the 10% level while respecting LHC sparticle and Higgs mass constraints. Gluino and top-squark masses can range up to several TeV (with other squarks even heavier) but a set of light Higgsinos are required with mass not too far above mh ~ 125 GeV. Within the RNS framework, gluinos dominantly decay via g˜ → tt ˜* 1 , t ¯t ˜ 1 → tt ¯Z 1,2 or tb¯W- 1 + c.c., where the decay products of the higgsino-like W ~ 1 and Z ~ 2 are very soft. Gluino pair production is, therefore, signaled by events with up to four hard b-jets and large E T . We devise a set of cuts to isolate a relatively pure gluino sample at the (high-luminosity) LHC and show that in the RNS model with very heavy squarks, the gluino signal will be accessible for m g ˜ < 2400 (2800) GeV for an integrated luminosity of 300 (3000) fb -1 . We also show that the measurement of the rate of gluino events in the clean sample mentioned above allows for a determination of m g ˜ with a statistical precision of 2–5% (depending on the integrated luminosity and the gluino mass) over the range of gluino masses where a 5σ discovery is possible at the LHC.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

NASA NTRS2012

Multiscale Dynamics of Solar Magnetic Structures

Multiscale topological complexity of the solar magnetic field is among the primary factors controlling energy release in the corona, including associated processes in the photospheric and chromospheric boundaries.We present a new approach for analyzing multiscale behavior of the photospheric magnetic flux underlying these dynamics as depicted by a sequence of high-resolution solar magnetograms. The approach involves two basic processing steps: (1) identification of timing and location of magnetic flux origin and demise events (as defined by DeForest et al.) by tracking spatiotemporal evolution of unipolar and bipolar photospheric regions, and (2) analysis of collective behavior of the detected magnetic events using a generalized version of the Grassberger-Procaccia correlation integral algorithm. The scale-free nature of the developed algorithms makes it possible to characterize the dynamics of the photospheric network across a wide range of distances and relaxation times. Three types of photospheric conditions are considered to test the method: a quiet photosphere, a solar active region (NOAA 10365) in a quiescent non-flaring state, and the same active region during a period of M-class flares. The results obtained show (1) the presence of a topologically complex asymmetrically fragmented magnetic network in the quiet photosphere driven by meso- and supergranulation, (2) the formation of non-potential magnetic structures with complex polarity separation lines inside the active region, and (3) statistical signatures of canceling bipolar magnetic structures coinciding with flaring activity in the active region. Each of these effects can represent an unstable magnetic configuration acting as an energy source for coronal dissipation and heating.

Magnetic fields↗

DOE OSTI2020

Accelerating Nuclear Facility Mission Completion Through an Improved Chemical Hazard Control Strategy - 20460

Code of Federal Regulation (CFR) 10 CFR 830, Nuclear Safety Management [1], explicitly identifies hazardous materials in addition to radioactive materials when establishing the scope of materials that must be evaluated in Hazard Category (HC) 1, 2, and 3 nuclear facilities. This inclusion has led to a near decade-long progression of more and more rigorous application of chemical hazard controls in these facilities. The progressive addition of more rigorous chemical hazard controls has occurred across the Department of Energy (DOE) Complex, having been driven by contractors and regulators alike. However, chemical hazards in other DOE facilities have been, and continue to be, controlled using traditional industrial safety centered strategies. Thus, identical chemical hazards are controlled using dramatically different approaches based solely on the facility type. Not only are the controls different, the analysis and derivation rigor and requirements are also significantly different. In particular, chemical control derivation and application in non-nuclear facilities are much less onerous than the comprehensive hazard analysis process used in nuclear facilities, even in circumstances in which chemicals are not initiators to, or do not exacerbate a nuclear event. While the derivation and control approaches used in these two types of facilities are disparate, the safety results are similarly effective based on a review of reported chemical events from 2014 through 2018. While both approaches achieve comparable safety outcomes, the approach used in nuclear facilities results in significantly greater preparation costs and implementation costs. Furthermore, the problem with the differing approach is not relegated to the control preparation and implementation burden. The operational impact of potentially unnecessary controls slows mission completion without a corresponding increase in safety, not to mention the dilution of the importance of Technical Safety Requirements. The proposed solution must first include a critical and thorough examination of DOE Complex and top-tier chemical industry chemical hazard control practices, coupled with a similar examination of the driving facility regulatory requirements. Results from the examination can then be used to fuel a bold departure from current chemical control practices in Hazard Category 1, 2, and 3 nuclear facilities. Development of an improved and consistent chemical hazard control process would follow, one that continues to ensure safety while accelerating mission completion and significantly reducing the burden associated with chemical hazard control development and implementation. The improved process must establish a hierarchy where radiological hazards are addressed using safety class and safety significant controls and chemical hazards are addressed using overarching safety management programs (with limited unique exceptions). The improved Hazard Category 1,2, and 3 nuclear facility chemical hazard control strategy, while compliant with 10 CFR 830 [1], would be founded on the requirements in 10 CFR 851, Worker Safety and Health Program [2], and the complementary DOE O 151.1D, Comprehensive Emergency Management System [3]. In this way, the Hazard Category 1, 2, and 3 nuclear facility chemical hazard control strategy would, wherever appropriate, be the same process used at other DOE Complex facilities. Ultimately, the improved process will maintain safety and significantly reduce costs and life cycle risk through faster mission completion. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2025

Backup power or bill savings? How electricity tariffs impact residential solar-plus-storage usage in the United States

Adoption of paired solar-plus-storage systems has accelerated in recent years, driven by both the demand for backup power and a desire to manage utility bills. Tradeoffs between those two uses can arise through the reserve setting on the battery storage system, which serves to maintain a minimum state of charge in case of a power interruption. Our paper applies an economic framework to evaluate this tradeoff in terms of changes in bill savings and customer reliability value across reserve levels, considering how those tradeoffs depend on the underlying electricity rate structure and levels. The analysis is based on a representative set of load profiles, solar profiles, tariff designs, and stochastic power interruption events across ten different regions in the United States. We find that the opportunity cost of holding storage capacity in reserve, in terms of foregone bill reductions, outweighs any gains in reliability value from mitigated power interruptions in the majority of customer situations. Higher storage reserve levels increase total customer value only in specific circumstances, such as for customers with inferior reliability (10x average interruptions), with a very high value of lost load ($50/kWh), and with tariff or interconnection rules that disallow grid charging. However, even this result is dampened when considering tariff designs with higher price differentials that increase the opportunity cost of holding storage in reserve (e.g. import/export or time-of-use rates). Allowing grid charging in tariffs essentially eliminates the necessity to hold any storage in reserve in all sensitivity cases explored.

Electric resilience↗

DOE OSTI2025

Characterizing How Meteorological Forcing Selection and Parameter Uncertainty Influence Community Land Model Version 5 Hydrological Applications in the United States

Despite the increasing use of large-scale Land Surface Models (LSMs) in predicting hydrological responses in extreme conditions, there's a critical gap in understanding the uncertainties in these predictions. This study addresses this gap through a detailed diagnostic evaluation of the uncertainties arising from meteorological forcing selection and model parametrization in hydrological simulations of the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5). CLM5 is configured at a spatial scale of about 12-km to simulate runoff processes for 464 headwater watersheds, selected from the Catchment Attributes for Large-Sample Studies (CAMELS) dataset to be representative of physiographic and climatic gradients across the conterminous United States. For each watershed, CLM5 is driven by five commonly used gridded forcing datasets in combination with a large ensemble (> 1200) of key CLM5 hydrologic parameters. Our results suggest that uncertainty in CLM5 runoff simulations resulting from both forcing and parametric sources is markedly higher in arid regions, e.g., Great Plains and Midwest regions. Uncertainty in low flow is dominated by parametric uncertainty, while the selection of meteorological forcing contributes more dominantly to high flow and seasonal flows during fall and spring. Our analysis also demonstrates that the selection of forcing datasets and the metrics used to calibrate CLM5 significantly impact the model’s predictive accuracy in extreme event severity for both floods and droughts. Overall, the results from this study highlight the need to understand and account for forcing and parametric uncertainties in CLM5 simulations, particularly for hazard and risk assessments addressing hydrologic extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗