Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “evaluation framework”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,783 records · Page 99
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Dynamic Building Load Control to Facilitate High Penetration of Solar Photovoltaic Generation (Final Technical Report)

Solar photovoltaic (PV) resources are the most common form of distributed generation in residential and commercial customer premises within electric distribution networks. A higher penetration of PV generation in distribution circuits will impose challenges on maintaining service voltages within the range of industry standards, power quality, and power flow. Buildings consume 74% of the electricity produced in the United States, and a significant portion of the building load is dispatchable, making them responsive to electrical grid needs. Oak Ridge National Laboratory—in collaboration with Southern Company; the University of Tennessee, Knoxville; and the Georgia Institute of Technology—is examining the PV integration issues in distribution-level electrical grids and developing integrated demand-side control and communication systems to enable responsive loads. The proposed responsive loads mechanism performs renewable generation following to increase the penetration of solar PV within each feeder. The specific objectives of this project are to (1) examine distribution-level PV integration scenarios to understand requirements, (2) undertake an end-to-end simulation-based design of a distributed control strategy of loads geographically near the PV generation asset to minimize the effect on the distribution feeder, (3) deploy and demonstrate the control technology developed in partnership with utilities, and (4) perform a scalability analysis at the utility scale. This 3-year integrated project aims to develop, demonstrate, and validate demand-side control technology to enable increased the penetration of renewables while mitigating challenges that arise due to their intermittency. Activities in Budget Period (BP) 1 focused on a literature review and the formal design of a control system for integrating local distribution with generation and loads. The team used modeling and simulation to evaluate the impact of varying buildings loads, variable PV generation, and power flow dynamics on the distribution circuit. The dynamic models developed in BP 1 were used in BP 2 to develop a model-based control design and a test bed. The test bed has enabled the simulation-based testing and comparison of different control designs and formulations applied to different configurations of the distribution grid, PVs, and building loads. The control approaches developed in BP 2 were implemented in BP 3 in the form of hardware deployed at the Central Baptist Church (CBC) in Knoxville, Tennessee, for testing and evaluation. The outcome of this project was the development and demonstration of open-source, low-cost, low-touch sensing and control retrofits to distributed PV generation and building loads that, in a coordinated fashion, provide the load-shaping response needed to integrate high levels of renewable penetration. This research addresses the target metrics by dynamically controlling a load with solar generation variability to minimize the extent of two-way power flow, enhance reliability, facilitate high PV penetration (>100% of peak load in a line segment), and generate scalable software and hardware solutions adaptable to any penetration levels. The research and development activities are focused and designed to be impactful within the relevant 2020 targets time frame.An accurate open-source integration simulation framework for end-to-end control design was developed and deployed at the CBC facility for testing and evaluation. This final report provides a detailed review of the technical results achieved during this 3-year integrated project. A novel spectral analysis of PV data is demonstrated to derive the requirements of the control design. A detailed simulation-based analysis of PV integration at increasing penetration levels is presented using 1 year of PV data to demonstrate the impact on the distribution circuits. Two different control strategies were developed and demonstrated via simulation to track variable PV generation with adaptive load dispatch. The report concludes with a summary of accomplishments and recommendations for a path forward.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Simulation-based assessment on stochastic load scheduling for building cooling systems

Here, to fill knowledge gaps related to stochastic load scheduling, we performed a comprehensive evaluation of the stochastic load scheduling for building cooling systems. Specifically, we studied the common uncertain variables in the load scheduling process for building cooling systems and categorized those variables based on their dynamic patterns. We then developed a generic stochastic load scheduling framework and applied it to building cooling systems that served a simulated community. This community consists of 100 heterogeneous houses and serves as a virtual testbed for evaluating the performance of stochastic load scheduling. In this evaluation, we considered representatives of uncertain variables with different dynamic patterns and included 100 realizations of the considered uncertainty in the evaluation to better catch the probability distribution of the control performance. The evaluation results suggest that deterministic load scheduling can reduce the operating energy cost by 18% but its performance can be affected by uncertainty. Stochastic load scheduling can further decrease the operating energy cost under uncertainty compared to deterministic load scheduling. We also found that the effectiveness of stochastic load scheduling in handling uncertainty is not directly associated with the number of uncertainty scenarios that are considered in its formulation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

The soil health assessment protocol and evaluation applied to soil organic carbon

The concept of soil health has evolved over the past several decades, recognizing that dynamic soil property response to management and land use is highly dependent on site-specific factors that must be considered when interpreting soil health measurements. Initially, the Soil Management Assessment Framework (SMAF) and Comprehensive Assessment of Soil Health (CASH) were developed and used globally for scoring soil health indicators. However, both SMAF and CASH frameworks were developed using a relatively small dataset and their interpretation curves were not validated at the nationwide scale. Expanding upon these concepts, we propose the Soil Health Assessment Protocol and Evaluation (SHAPE) tool. The SHAPE was developed using 14,680 soil organic C (SOC) observations from across the United States, and accounts for edaphic and climate factors at the continental scale. Data were compiled from the literature, the Cornell Soil Health Laboratory, and the Kellogg Soil Survey Laboratory. In this approach, scoring curves are Bayesian model-based estimates of the conditional cumulative distribution function (CDF) for defined soil peer groups reflecting five soil texture and five soil suborder classes adjusted for mean annual temperature and precipitation. Specifically, SHAPE produces scores between 0 and 1 (0–100%) for measured SOC values that reflect the quantile or position within the conditional CDF along with measures of uncertainty. Herein, we focus on development of the SHAPE scoring curve for SOC with our case studies. SHAPE is a flexible, quantitative tool that provides a regionally relevant interpretation of this key soil health indicator.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Including frameworks of public health ethics in computational modelling of infectious disease interventions

Decisions on public health interventions to control infectious diseases are often informed by computational models. Interpreting the predicted outcomes of a public health decision requires not only high-quality modelling but also an ethical framework for assessing the benefits and harms associated with different options. The design and specification of ethical frameworks matured independently of computational modelling, so many values recognized as important for ethical decision-making are missing from computational models. We demonstrate a proof-of-concept approach to incorporate multiple public health values into the evaluation of a simple computational model for vaccination against a pathogen such as SARS-CoV-2. By examining a bounded space of alternative prioritizations of three values relevant to public health ethics (aggregate clinical burden, equity in clinical burden, equity in adverse effects from vaccination), we identify value trade-offs, where the outcomes of optimal strategies differ depending on the ethical framework. This work demonstrates an approach to incorporating diverse values into decision criteria used to evaluate outcomes of models of infectious disease interventions.

"Mathematical Biology"↗
DOE OSTI2020

Palladium/Zeolite Low Temperature Passive NOx Adsorbers (PNA): Structure-Adsorption Property Relationships for Hydrothermally Aged PNA Materials

Zeolites with different framework structures (SSZ-13, ZSM-5, BEA) but similar Si/Al ratios and Pd loading (~1 wr%) were synthesized and evaluated as low temperature passive NOx adsorbers (PNA). These materials exhibit high NOx adsorption efficiency with atomically dispersed Pd the active adsorption site. Hydrothermal aging at 750 ºC for 16 hours in the presence of 10% water vapor in air resulted in the formation of PdO nanoparticles in all three samples as evidenced by high energy XRD. Hydrothermal aging of the small-pore Pd/SSZ-13 (Si/Al = 6), which contain ~100-90% atomically dispersed palladium ions, decreases its PNA performance only by ~10-20%. High-field solid state 27Al NMR studies on the fresh and aged samples substantiate dealumination and significant changes in the distribution of Al (and thus, Bronsted acid) sites after hydrothermal aging. FTIR measurements with NO probe molecule and titration of Bronsted acid sites with nitrosyl (NO+) ions further corroborate the 27Al NMR data. Because framework aluminum atoms are the anchoring sites for atomically dispersed Pd ions, their elution from the framework causes the loss of active atomically dispersed Pd species. Furthermore, with the aid of HAADF-STEM imaging and synchrotron XRD studies, we further confirm and visualize the fate of these Pd species – they agglomerate into PdO nanoparticles on the external surface of zeolite. Consequently, these changes lead to the decrease in PNA performance of these materials after hydrothermal aging. The thus formed agglomerates cannot be re-dispersed back to their ionic state due to the loss of framework Al T-sites and/or inherent stability of such large PdO particles. Our study clearly demonstrates that, unlike in previous studies that found increased PNA performance upon HTA , high temperatures hydrothermal aging of PNA materials that contain atomically dispersed Pd initially, results in a decrease in NOx storage efficiency due mostly to the formation of PdO agglomerates. However, we also highlight the high hydrothermal stability of predominantly atomically dispersed 1-3 wt% Pd/SSZ-13 (Si/Al = 6), whose performance decreases only marginally after prolonged hydrothermal aging at 750 ºC. Overall, this study shows that hydrothermally stable passive NOx materials can be prepared using small-pore SSZ-13 zeolite.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Recommended Practices for Managing Induced Seismicity Risk Associated with Geologic Carbon Storage

The geologic storage of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is one method to help reduce or eliminate atmospheric CO 2 emissions. The sequestered CO 2 is originally captured from the atmosphere or from a stationary industrial source and subsequently injected into a deep subsurface porous rock formation. To facilitate the successful deployment of field scale carbon storage projects, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is developing tools and protocols for defensible, science-based frameworks to quantify and mitigate risks associated with the long-term storage of CO 2 . This protocol specifically addresses the risk of induced seismicity due to injection in a geologic carbon storage (GCS) site. This integrated and risk-based protocol is a product of the U.S. DOE Fossil Energy’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP), a multi-year collaborative research effort of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). These recommended practices describe a set of 7 steps to evaluate, manage, communicate, and mitigate the risk of induced seismicity at GCS sites. The base methodology of the recommended practices follows a framework similar to the Protocol for Addressing Induced Seismicity Associated with Enhanced Geothermal Systems (Majer et al., 2012), developed for the Geothermal Technology Office of the U.S. DOE. These recommended practices present a framework to systematically assess the induced seismicity risk and quantify the associated uncertainties. These recommendations are based on current research and are sufficiently general to allow for modification and application to a variety of different types of sites. The substance of the recommended practices contained herein includes both technical and non-technical issues, and covers all operational stages of the GCS project lifecycle. They start at the preliminary risk assessment phase, continue through site assessment and characterization, include best practice communication and seismic monitoring plan methodologies, discuss the evaluation and mitigation of seismic hazard and risk, and closes with an exploration of operational management plans, which conclude when the induced seismicity risk abates back to background level. The focus of these recommendations is on actively managing the risks associated with induced seismicity by developing an actionable risk management plan that starts at the project proposal stage and continues through site closure through an iterative assessment and improvement process. The audience of this document is expected to include all interested stakeholders (e.g., operators, project developers, regulators, and the general public) and is expressly written to be accessible to this broad range of partners. This document is intended to disseminate knowledge gained through recent advances in the science of induced seismicity hazard and risk assessments, to provide updates based on recent experience gained by similar corollary injection-induced seismicity cases, and most importantly to establish a uniform framework to carry out a successful induced seismicity risk management plan for carbon storage projects in the future. These recommendations do not directly address any domestic or international regulations or standards. A complementary NRAP report makes recommendations for the assessment and management of environmental subsurface risks associated with unwanted fluid migration at GCS sites (Thomas et al., 2021) and should be referred to in order to address those additional GCS site risks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Recommended Practices for Managing Induced Seismicity Risk Associated with Geologic Carbon Storage

The geologic storage of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is one method to help reduce or eliminate atmospheric CO 2 emissions. The sequestered CO 2 is originally captured from the atmosphere or from a stationary industrial source and subsequently injected into a deep subsurface porous rock formation. To facilitate the successful deployment of field scale carbon storage projects, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is developing tools and protocols for defensible, science-based frameworks to quantify and mitigate risks associated with the long-term storage of CO 2 . This protocol specifically addresses the risk of induced seismicity due to injection in a geologic carbon storage (GCS) site. This integrated and risk-based protocol is a product of the U.S. DOE Fossil Energy’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP), a multi-year collaborative research effort of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). These recommended practices describe a set of 7 steps to evaluate, manage, communicate, and mitigate the risk of induced seismicity at GCS sites. The base methodology of the recommended practices follows a framework similar to the $\textit{Protocol for Addressing Induced Seismicity Associated with Enhanced Geothermal Systems}$ (Majer et al., 2012), developed for the Geothermal Technology Office of the U.S. DOE. These recommended practices present a framework to systematically assess the induced seismicity risk and quantify the associated uncertainties. These recommendations are based on current research and are sufficiently general to allow for modification and application to a variety of different types of sites. The substance of the recommended practices contained herein includes both technical and non-technical issues, and covers all operational stages of the GCS project lifecycle. They start at the preliminary risk assessment phase, continue through site assessment and characterization, include best practice communication and seismic monitoring plan methodologies, discuss the evaluation and mitigation of seismic hazard and risk, and closes with an exploration of operational management plans, which conclude when the induced seismicity risk abates back to background level. The focus of these recommendations is on actively managing the risks associated with induced seismicity by developing an actionable risk management plan that starts at the project proposal stage and continues through site closure through an iterative assessment and improvement process. The audience of this document is expected to include all interested stakeholders (e.g., operators, project developers, regulators, and the general public) and is expressly written to be accessible to this broad range of partners. This document is intended to disseminate knowledge gained through recent advances in the science of induced seismicity hazard and risk assessments, to provide updates based on recent experience gained by similar corollary injection-induced seismicity cases, and most importantly to establish a uniform framework to carry out a successful induced seismicity risk management plan for carbon storage projects in the future. These recommendations do not directly address any domestic or international regulations or standards. A complementary NRAP report makes recommendations for the assessment and management of environmental subsurface risks associated with unwanted fluid migration at GCS sites (Thomas et al., 2021) and should be referred to in order to address those additional GCS site risks

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian Monte Carlo Evaluation of Imperfect (n, 233 U) Data and Model

Conventional nuclear data evaluation methods using generalized linear least squares make the following assumptions: prior and posterior probability distribution functions (PDFs) of all model parameters and data are normal (Gaussian); the linear approximation is sufficiently accurate to minimize the cost function (even for nonlinear models); the model (e.g., of neutron cross section) and experimental data (including covariance data) are without defect and prior PDFs of parameters and measured data are known perfectly. Neglect of covariance between model parameters and measured data in conventional evaluations contributes to imperfections. These assumptions are inherent to the generalized linear least squares minimization method commonly used for resolved resonance region neutron cross section evaluations but are often not justified due to the presence of non-normal PDFs, nonlinear models (e.g., R-matrix formalism), and inherent imperfections in data and models (e.g., imperfect covariance data). Here, these assumptions are removed in a mathematical framework of Bayes’ theorem, which is implemented using the Metropolis-Hastings Monte Carlo method. Most importantly, new parameters are introduced to parameterize discrepancies between the theoretical model and measured data to quantify judgement about discrepancies or imperfections in a reproducible manner. An evaluation of 233U in the eV region using the ENDF-B/VIII.0 library and transmission data (Guber et al.) is presented, and posterior parameters are compared to those obtained by conventional evaluation methods. This example illustrates the effects of removing the most harmful assumption: that of model-data perfection.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) Licensing and Permitting [Slides]

This presentation provides an overview of the licensing, permitting, and regulatory frameworks governing Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) across multiple international contexts. It outlines foundational permitting considerations - including safety standards, siting requirements, regulatory and environmental obligations, and interconnection processes - alongside typical pathways for installation, approval, and inspection. The presentation summarizes key technical standards such as NFPA 855 and IEEE guidelines, and emphasizes best practices for safe and effective deployment. A series of detailed case studies from South Africa, Chile, Mexico, Brazil, Costa Rica, Honduras, and the Dominican Republic illustrates how different countries structure approval authority, evaluate environmental impacts, and integrate BESS into national grid systems. The deck concludes with insights on emerging challenges, including evolving regulatory frameworks, financial viability, and the need for pricing mechanisms that accurately value storage services.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Advances in GDSA Framework Development and Process Model Integration

The Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) Campaign of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE), Office of Spent Fuel & Waste Disposition (SFWD) is conducting research and development (R&D) on geologic disposal of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and highlevel nuclear waste (HLW). A high priority for SFWST disposal R&D is to develop a disposal system modeling and analysis capability for evaluating disposal system performance for nuclear waste in geologic media. This report describes fiscal year (FY) 2020 advances of the Geologic Disposal Safety Assessment (GDSA) Framework and PFLOTRAN development groups of the SFWST Campaign. The common mission of these groups is to develop a geologic disposal system modeling capability for nuclear waste that can be used to probabilistically assess the performance of disposal options and generic sites. The capability is a framework called GDSA Framework that employs high-performance computing (HPC) capable codes PFLOTRAN and Dakota.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Material and Energy Efficiency: A Framework for Broader Analysis of Energy Use in the U.S. Economy

Energy efficiency analysis has focused predominantly on reducing energy at its point of use by individual components, processes, or products. Efforts to address the energy embodied in materials through strategies and technologies that reduce raw material production - while maintaining the function and use of materials - offer a complementary and expansive approach to traditional energy efficiency analysis. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) energy analysis community currently lacks analytical tools that are appropriate for 1) estimating on a product and economy-wide basis energy efficiency potential achieved through material efficiency strategies and 2) evaluating how these new strategies may complement existing energy efficiency efforts. The goal of this report is to describe a standardized analysis framework that would enable calculation of embodied and direct energy and the estimation of energy reduction potential achieved through changes in material use. The proposed framework meets this functionality by spanning the entire U.S. economy, including international trade flows; capturing material and energy use in products and services from raw material extraction to retirement; maintaining material and energy balances; and adjusting dynamically to absolute and relative changes in materials and energy use. The framework is composed of two main elements: a dynamic hybrid input-output (IO) model and a material energy identity. The hybrid IO model defines recipes for material and energy flows in physical (e.g., British thermal units [Btus] and tons) and monetary units, and allows for dynamic adjustments to the amount of materials and energy used. The second element of the analytical framework, the material energy identity, acts as a way of identifying and organizing energy and material efficiency strategies, which are then implemented and analyzed in the hybrid IO model. The report also provides a simple example application of the proposed framework, which illustrates the concept of reducing energy use through changes to material efficiency.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Deterministic direct aperture optimization using multiphase piecewise constant segmentation

Purpose Direct aperture optimization (DAO) attempts to incorporate machine constraints in the inverse optimization to eliminate the post‐processing steps in fluence map optimization (FMO) that degrade plan quality. Current commercial DAO methods utilize a stochastic or greedy approach to search a small aperture solution space. In this study, we propose a novel deterministic direct aperture optimization that integrates the segmentation of fluence map in the optimization problem using the multiphase piecewise constant Mumford‐Shah formulation. Methods The Mumford‐Shah based direct aperture optimization problem was formulated to include an L2‐norm dose fidelity term to penalize differences between the projected dose and the prescribed dose, an anisotropic total variation term to promote piecewise continuity in the fluence maps, and the multiphase piecewise constant Mumford‐Shah function to partition the fluence into pairwise discrete segments. A proximal‐class, first‐order primal‐dual solver was implemented to solve the large scale optimization problem, and an alternating module strategy was implemented to update fluence and delivery segments. Three patients of varying complexity—one glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) patient, one lung (LNG) patient, and one bilateral head and neck (H&N) patient with 3 PTVs—were selected to test the new DAO method. For each patient, 20 non‐coplanar beams were first selected using column generation, followed by the Mumford‐Shah based DAO (DAO MS ). For comparison, a popular and successful approach to DAO known as simulated annealing—a stochastic approach—was replicated. The simulated annealing DAO (DAO SA ) plans were then created using the same beam angles and maximum number of segments per beam. PTV coverage, PTV homogeneity , and OAR sparing were assessed for each plan. In addition, high dose spillage, defined as the 50% isodose volume divided by the tumor volume, as well as conformity, defined as the van't Riet conformation number, were evaluated. Results DAO MS achieved essentially the same OAR doses compared with the DAO SA plans for the GBM case. The average difference of OAR D max and D mean between the two plans were within 0.05% of the plan prescription dose. The lung case showed slightly improved critical structure sparing using the DAO MS approach, where the average OAR D max and D mean were reduced by 3.67% and 1.08%, respectively, of the prescription dose. The DAO MS plan substantially improved OAR dose sparing for the H&N patient, where the average OAR D max and D mean were reduced by over 10% of the prescription dose. The DAO MS and DAO SA plans were comparable for the GBM and LNG PTV coverage, while the DAO MS plan substantially improved the H&N PTV coverage, increasing D99 by 6.98% of the prescription dose. For the GBM and LNG patients, the DAO MS and DAO SA plans had comparable high dose spillage but slightly worse conformity with the DAO MS approach. For the H&N plan, DAO MS was considerably superior in high dose spillage and conformity to the DAO SA . The deterministic approach is able to solve the DAO problem substantially faster than the simulated annealing approach, with a 9.5‐ to 40‐fold decrease in total solve time, depending on the patient case. Conclusions A novel deterministic direct aperture optimization formulation was developed and evaluated. It combines fluence map optimization and the multiphase piecewise constant Mumford‐Shah segmentation into a unified framework, and the resulting optimization problem can be solved efficiently. Compared to the widely and commercially used simulated annealing DAO approach, it showed comparable dosimetry behavior for simple plans, and substantially improved OAR sparing, PTV coverage, PTV homogeneity, high dose spillage, and conformity for the more complex head and neck plan.

Nguyen, Dan↗
DOE OSTI2011

A study of the ground-state energy of {sup 4}He with nucleon-nucleon potentials

Ground-state properties are evaluated for the finite nucleus {sup 4}He starting from realistic nucleon-nucleon interactions within the framework of the Green's function approach. For the sake of comparison, the same calculations are performed using the Brueckner-Hartree-Fock approximation. For that purpose four high-quality modern nucleon-nucleon interactions represented in momentum space are employed: the Argonne V18, CD-Bonn, Bonn A and N{sup 3}LO potentials. In these potentials, the effects of charge dependence are taken into account. Additional binding energy is obtained from the inclusion of the hole-hole scattering term within the framework of the Green function approach. It has been shown that the Green function results agree well with the results obtained by accurate methods for few-nucleon systems such as the Faddeev-Yakubovsky calculation. In this study, a comparison of the calculated ground-state energies, obtained by using the Green function approach and different nucleon-nucleon potentials, with experimental values is carried out. The results show good agreement between the calculated values and the experimental ones. - Highlights: > We present ground-state energies of the helium nucleus. > We consider four high-quality modern nucleon-nucleon potentials. > It is shown that the Green function approach gives quite good results.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2019

Holistic modeling framework of demand response considering multiti-mescale uncertainties for capacity value estimation

Demand response (DR) is regarded as an effective tool to mitigate the operational uncertainties and enhance the reliability of power supply in smart grids. However, with the time-varying attribute, to what extent DR could be committed is a major concern for utilities. This paper proposes a new approach to assess the capacity value (CV) of DR with a methodological framework developed for the uncertainty modeling of DR. The novelty of this framework is its inclusion of both physical and human-related analyses in DR programs, which allows the characterization of DR variability to be accurate for the CV estimation. To achieve this, the demand-side activities in DR are disaggregated into several modules as load usage, contract selection and actual performance. Based on their intrinsic properties, different parametric models are proposed to represent the impact of each technical/social factor on the availability of DR. The parameters of these models are determined using learning based algorithms to adapt to various behavior patterns of consumers. The outputs of the framework will serve as the quantifiers of DR capability and are integrated into reliability-based CV evaluation. The results of case studies verify the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

Capacity value↗
DOE OSTI2026

Theoretical model of dielectrophoretic water vapor condensation during multiphase flow of electrically charged water droplets in air

Water droplet growth in air, influenced by vapor diffusion and electrical charging, has significant implications for indoor air quality, cloud formation, and aerosol dynamics. Here, this study presents a comprehensive theoretical model that describes the growth dynamics of electrically charged water droplets under external electric fields, incorporating diffusion, electrostatic, and dielectrophoretic forces to enhance understanding and practical applications in air dehumidification and environmental control. A theoretical model was established to analyze the growth dynamics of the charged water droplets. The approach extended the thermodynamic framework of the Modified Kelvin-Thomson equation by integrating electrostatic and dielectrophoretic effects, enabling a comprehensive evaluation of vapor concentration near the surface of charged droplets. A sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the roles of droplet size, electric field intensity, surface charge, and vapor concentration on condensation rates. The study progressed beyond the classical diffusion-limited growth of neutral droplets, addressing the behavior of charged droplets in electrohydrodynamic environments. The model highlighted the significance of dielectrophoretic drift flux for dipolar vapor molecules, especially in micron-sized droplets ranging from 10 to 100 µm. Findings demonstrated that, for smaller droplets subjected to elevated electrical charge, average growth rates varied from 0.3 to 1.6 µm/s if the air relative humidity increased from 50 to 100 %. Analytical results are corroborated by numerical simulations, which exhibited strong concordance, thereby validating the proposed theoretical approach. This research introduced an innovative and scalable analytical methodology for electric field-enhanced droplet growth, offering valuable insights into the advancement of energy-efficient air dehumidification, water desalination, and atmospheric water harvesting technologies.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Transient uncertainty quantification and Global Sensitivity Analysis of the open-source Molten Chloride Reactor Experiment (MCRE) using GP-PCA surrogate models

Uncertainties in the thermophysical properties of molten salts impact both the steady-state and transient behavior of Molten Salt Reactors (MSRs). In this work, we aim to quantify the influence of such uncertainties on the transient operation of the Molten Chloride Reactor Experiment (MCRE), utilizing the open-source specifications provided for this reactor. Seven representative transient scenarios are considered. For each scenario, we evaluate the impact of thermophysical property uncertainties on four key multiphysics model output variables of interest (VoIs): maximum power density, maximum fuel temperature, maximum reflector temperature, and average fuel velocity magnitude. In addition, we perform a Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) by computing Sobol’ indices for the uncertain input parameters to determine their contribution to the variability of each VoI. Conducting GSA is computationally intensive due to the large number of required evaluations of the high-fidelity multiphysics model. To mitigate this cost, we develop a surrogate modeling framework that combines Gaussian Process (GP) regression with Principal Component Analysis (PCA), enabling efficient sample generation for the GSA. Our results show that for energy-related VoIs, thermal conductivity is the dominant contributor to uncertainty. In contrast, for flow-related VoIs, density and dynamic viscosity are the primary sources of uncertainty. The specific heat of the fuel salt was found to play a secondary role in the transient analyses.

42 - ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

First-Principles Approach for Assessing Cold Electron Injection Efficiency of Dye-Sensitized Solar Cell: Elucidation of Mechanism of Charge Injection and Recombination

The adequacy of the inclusion of spacer units in the metal-free D-π–A organic dyes pertaining to the augmentation of dye-sensitized solar cell (DSSC) efficiency has been examined through the excited-state simulations of the charge injection and recombination processes at the dye–semiconductor interface. Within the framework of the time-dependent density functional theory, the proposed computational studies focus on the precise evaluation of pivotal factors controlling the rates of photoinduced charge-transfer and energy-transfer processes, including electronic coupling, reorganization energy, and threshold energy barrier in the semiclassical Marcus formalism. The estimation of the fluorescent state appears to be the crucial step while explaining the ultrafast electron injection process and the charge recombination at the Marcus inverted region, as revealed by the obtained results. The retardation of charge recombination is facilitated by the insertion of a thiophene moiety between the π-bridge and the acceptor units. The estimated cold electron injection efficiencies deploying the Onsager–Braun theory, that rely on the computations of cold electron injection lifetime and cold electron lifetime, show a linear correlation with the experimental photovoltaic parameters of the DSSC comprising short-circuit current density, open-circuit voltage, and power conversion efficiency. The outcomes of the present investigation establish a basis for unraveling the mechanism of intricate dynamical processes upon photoexcitation of the sensitizers, as well as devising plausible routes for functional DSSC materials.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗