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At least 1,783 records · Page 99

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DOE OSTI2020

Temperature Effects on Interdiffusion of Al and U-Mo under Irradiation

A high-energy Xe ion irradiation experiment was conducted to investigate the temperature dependence of interdiffusion in bilayer Al-UMo samples under irradiation. The amount of interdiffusion achieved at a fixed dose with the increase of temperature showed a clear transition at 175 degrees C (with an estimated error in the range of ± 10 degrees C) from temperature-independent to temperature-dependent behavior. The activation energy derived from the curve of interdiffusion quantity vs. irradiation temperature is 0.77 ± 0.16 eV. This information has been utilized to understand the temperature effect on the interdiffusion process that occurred at the interfaces of U-Mo particles and the Al matrix in U-Mo/Al dispersion fuels, whose magnitude significantly impacts the fuel's performance. Although this temperature effect was deemed important, it cannot be examined directly using in-pile irradiation data, as fuel temperatures cannot be measured in reactor irradiation and are highly correlated with fission rate and thermal conductivity evolution. To connect the knowledge accumulated from ion irradiation with in-pile irradiation data, simulation of a full-sized U-Mo/Al dispersion fuel plate irradiated in the FUTURE test in the BR2 reactor was performed with the Dispersion Analysis Research Tool (DART), a dispersion fuel performance code. DART is equipped with an interaction or interdiffusion layer (IL) growth correlation formulated to describe the temperature dependence of ion mixing results. The agreement between calculated and measured fuel meat constituent volume fractions and swelling data demonstrated that the temperature effect on in-pile Al-UMo interdiffusion is well captured with the correlation. In this case, the fitted activation energy is 0.70 eV. Considering the uncertainties associated with the ion irradiation data, the activation energy obtained from in-pile data fitting is in accord with that from ion irradiation results.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS1962

A STATISTICAL OPTIMIZING NAVIGATION PROCEDURE FOR SPACE FLIGHT

In a typical self-contained space navigation system, celestial observation data are gathered and processed to produce estimated velocity corrections. The results of this paper provide a basis for determining the best celestial measurements and the proper time s to implement velocity corrections. Fundamental to the navigation system is a procedure for processing celestial measurement data which permits incorporation of each individual measurement as it is made in order to provide an improved estimate of position and velocity. In order to "optimize" the navigation, a statistical evaluation of a number of alternative courses of action is made. The various alternatives, which form the basis of a decision process, concern the following: 1) which star and planet combination provides the "best" available observation; 2) whether the best observation gives a sufficient reduction in the predicted target error to warrant making the measurement; and 3) whether the uncertainty in the indicated velocity correction is a small enough percentage of the correction itself to justify an engine re-start and propellant expenditure. Numerical results are presented which illustrate the effectiveness of this approach to the space navigation problem.

NAVIGATION↗

NASA NTRS2005

Attitude Sensor Pseudonoise

Even assuming perfect attitude sensors and gyros, sensor measurements on a vibrating spacecraft have apparent errors. These apparent sensor errors, referred to as pseudonoise, arise because gyro and sensor measurements are performed at discrete times. This paper explains the concept of pseudonoise, quantifies its behavior, and discusses the effect of vibrations that are nearly commensurate with measurement periods. Although pseudonoise does not usually affect attitude determination it does affect sensor performance evaluation. Attitude rates are usually computed from differences between pairs of accumulated angle measurements at different times and are considered constant in the periods between measurements. Propagation using these rates does not reproduce exact instantaneous spacecraft attitudes except at the gyro measurement times. Exact sensor measurements will therefore be inconsistent with estimates based on the propagated attitude. This inconsistency produces pseudonoise. The characteristics of pseudonoise were determined using a simple, one-dimensional model of spacecraft vibration. The statistical properties of the deviations of measurements from model truth were determined using this model and a range of different periods of sensor and rate measurements. This analysis indicates that the magnitude of pseudonoise depends on the ratio of the spacecraft vibration period to the time between gyro measurements and can be as much as twice the amplitude of the vibration. In cases where the vibration period and gyro or sensor measurement period are nearly commensurate, unexpected changes in pseudonoise occur.

Hashmall, Joseph A.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Measurement of CPAS Main Parachute Rate of Descent

The Crew Exploration Vehicle Parachute Assembly System (CPAS) is being designed to land the Orion Crew Module (CM) at a safe rate of descent at splashdown. Flight test performance must be measured to a high degree of accuracy to ensure this requirement is met with the most efficient design possible. Although the design includes three CPAS Main parachutes, the requirement is that the system must not exceed 33 ft/s under two Main parachutes, should one of the Main parachutes fail. Therefore, several tests were conducted with clusters of two Mains. All of the steady-state rate of descent data are normalized to standard sea level conditions and checked against the limit. As the Orion design gains weight, the system is approaching this limit to within measurement precision. Parachute "breathing," cluster interactions, and atmospheric anomalies can cause the rate of descent to vary widely and lead to challenges in characterizing parachute terminal performance. An early test had contradictory rate of descent results from optical trajectory and Differential Global Positioning Systems (DGPS). A thorough analysis of the data sources and error propagation was conducted to determine the uncertainty in the trajectory. It was discovered that the Time Space Position Information (TSPI) from the optical tracking provided accurate position data. However, the velocity from TPSI must be computed via numerical differentiation, which is prone to large error. DGPS obtains position through pseudo-range calculations from multiple satellites and velocity through Doppler shift of the carrier frequency. Because the velocity from DGPS is a direct measurement, it is more accurate than TSPI velocity. To remedy the situation, a commercial off-the-shelf product that combines GPS and an Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU) was purchased to significantly improve rate of descent measurements. This had the added benefit of solving GPS dropouts during aircraft extraction. Statistical probability distributions for CPAS Main parachute rate of descent and drag coefficient were computed and plotted. Using test data, a terminal rate of descent at splashdown can be estimated as a function of canopy loading.

Ray, Eric S.↗

NASA NTRS2013

The Impact of Model and Rainfall Forcing Errors on Characterizing Soil Moisture Uncertainty in Land Surface Modeling

The contribution of rainfall forcing errors relative to model (structural and parameter) uncertainty in the prediction of soil moisture is investigated by integrating the NASA Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM), forced with hydro-meteorological data, in the Oklahoma region. Rainfall-forcing uncertainty is introduced using a stochastic error model that generates ensemble rainfall fields from satellite rainfall products. The ensemble satellite rain fields are propagated through CLSM to produce soil moisture ensembles. Errors in CLSM are modeled with two different approaches: either by perturbing model parameters (representing model parameter uncertainty) or by adding randomly generated noise (representing model structure and parameter uncertainty) to the model prognostic variables. Our findings highlight that the method currently used in the NASA GEOS-5 Land Data Assimilation System to perturb CLSM variables poorly describes the uncertainty in the predicted soil moisture, even when combined with rainfall model perturbations. On the other hand, by adding model parameter perturbations to rainfall forcing perturbations, a better characterization of uncertainty in soil moisture simulations is observed. Specifically, an analysis of the rank histograms shows that the most consistent ensemble of soil moisture is obtained by combining rainfall and model parameter perturbations. When rainfall forcing and model prognostic perturbations are added, the rank histogram shows a U-shape at the domain average scale, which corresponds to a lack of variability in the forecast ensemble. The more accurate estimation of the soil moisture prediction uncertainty obtained by combining rainfall and parameter perturbations is encouraging for the application of this approach in ensemble data assimilation systems.

Maggioni, V.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Using Gaia Data 2 to Constrain Local Dark Matter Density and Thin Dark Disk

We use stellar kinematics from the latest Gaia data release (DR2) to measure the local dark matter (DM) density ρDM in a heliocentric cylinder of radius R = 150 pc and half-height z = 200 pc. We also explore the prospect of using our analysis to estimate the DM density in local substructure by setting constraints on the surface density and scale height of a thin dark disk aligned with the baryonic disk and formed due to dissipative dark matter self-interactions. Performing the statistical analysis within a Bayesian framework for three types of tracers, we obtain ρDM = 0.016 ± 0.010 Mꙩ/p c 3 for A stars; early G stars give a similar result, while F stars yield a significantly higher value. For a thin dark disk, A stars set the strongest constraint: excluding surface densities (5–12) Mꙩ/pc 2 for scale heights below 100 pc with 95% confidence. The upper bound of this constraint implies . 1% of the Milky Way DM mass is present in a dissipative dark sector. Comparing our results with those derived using Tycho-Gaia Astrometric Solution (TGAS) data, we find that the uncertainty in our measurements of the local DM content is dominated by systematic errors that arise from assumptions of our dynamical analysis in the low z region. Furthermore, there will only be a marginal reduction in these uncertainties with more data in the Gaia era. We comment on the robustness of our method and discuss potential improvements for future work.

dark matter theory↗

DOE OSTI2023

Impacts of Dispatch Strategies and Forecast Errors on the Economics of Behind-the-Meter PV-Battery Systems

To assess the economic value of batteries in hybrid PV-battery systems, one must create a dispatch profile for the battery. Many analyses of battery value assume perfect forecasts of PV generation and load, determining an upper limit on the value of the battery. Prior work that accounts for forecast uncertainty often does so in the context of a single dispatch algorithm, which does not provide a baseline for comparison. Furthermore, when multiple dispatch algorithms are assessed with uncertainty, the benefits considered are for diesel generation in a microgrid, not retail rate savings. This work addresses the gaps in the literature by comparing the performance of both heuristic and optimal dispatch algorithms for retail rate savings under forecast uncertainty, and provides comparisons of the robustness of these algorithms and their associated estimates of economic value. We find that using a perfect forecast can overestimate the value of hybrid PV-battery systems between 1% and 8% compared to the reality of using a day-ahead forecast, depending on the dispatch algorithm used. Thus, accounting for forecast uncertainty in system design and analysis will significantly improve the accuracy of modeled system values.

batteries↗

DOE OSTI2023

Impacts of Dispatch Strategies and Forecast Errors on the Economics of Behind-the-Meter PV-Battery Systems

To assess the economic value of batteries in hybrid PV-battery systems, one must create a dispatch profile for the battery. Many analyses of battery value assume perfect forecasts of PV generation and load, determining an upper limit on the value of the battery. Prior work that accounts for forecast uncer- tainty often does so in the context of a single dispatch algorithm, which does not provide a baseline for comparison. Furthermore, when multiple dispatch algorithms are assessed with uncertainty, the benefits considered are for diesel generation in a microgrid, not retail rate savings. This work addresses the gaps in the literature by comparing the performance of both heuristic and optimal dispatch algorithms for retail rate savings under forecast uncertainty, and provides comparisons of the robustness of these algorithms and their associated estimates of economic value. We find that using a perfect forecast can overestimate the value of hybrid PV-battery systems between 1% and 8% compared to the reality of using a day-ahead forecast, depending on the dispatch algorithm used. Thus, accounting for forecast uncertainty in system design and analysis will significantly improve the accuracy of modeled system values.

batteries↗

DOE OSTI2023

Impacts of Dispatch Strategies and Forecast Errors on the Economics of Behind-the-Meter PV-Battery Systems: Preprint

batteries↗

DOE OSTI2023

BEYONDPLANCK IV. On end-to-end simulations in CMB analysis — Bayesian versus frequentist statistics

End-to-end simulations play a key role in the analysis of any high-sensitivity cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiment, providing high-fidelity systematic error propagation capabilities that are unmatched by any other means. In this paper, we address an important issue regarding such simulations, namely, how to define the inputs in terms of sky model and instrument parameters. These may either be taken as a constrained realization derived from the data or as a random realization independent from the data. We refer to these as posterior and prior simulations, respectively. We show that the two options lead to significantly different correlation structures, as prior simulations (contrary to posterior simulations) effectively include cosmic variance, but they exclude realization-specific correlations from non-linear degeneracies. Consequently, they quantify fundamentally different types of uncertainties. We argue that as a result, they also have different and complementary scientific uses, even if this dichotomy is not absolute. In particular, posterior simulations are in general more convenient for parameter estimation studies, while prior simulations are generally more convenient for model testing. Before BEYONDPLANCK, most pipelines used a mix of constrained and random inputs and applied the same hybrid simulations for all applications, even though the statistical justification for this is not always evident. BEYONDPLANCK represents the first end-to-end CMB simulation framework that is able to generate both types of simulations and these new capabilities have brought this topic to the forefront. The BEYONDPLANCK posterior simulations and their uses are described extensively in a suite of companion papers. In this work, we consider one important applications of the corresponding prior simulations, namely, code validation. Specifically, we generated a set of one-year LFI 30 GHz prior simulations with known inputs and we used these to validate the core low-level BEYONDPLANCK algorithms dealing with gain estimation, correlated noise estimation, and mapmaking.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Retrieval of temperature and humidity profiles from ground-based high-resolution infrared observations using an adaptive fast iterative algorithm

Various retrieval algorithms have been developed for retrieving temperature and water vapor profiles from Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI) observations. The physical retrieval algorithm, named AERI Optimal Estimation (AERIoe), outperforms other retrieval algorithms in many aspects except the retrieval time, which is significantly increased due to the complex radiative transfer process. The calculation of the Jacobian matrix is the most computationally intensive step of the physical retrieval algorithm. Interestingly, an analysis of the change in AERI observations' information content with respect to Jacobians revealed that the AERIoe algorithm's performance presents negligible dependence on these metrics. Thus, the Jacobian matrix could remain unchanged when the variation in the atmospheric state is small in the retrieval process to reduce the most time-consuming computation. On the basis of the above findings, a fast physical–iterative retrieval algorithm was proposed by adaptively recalculating Jacobians in keeping with the changes in the atmospheric state. Experiments with synthetic observations demonstrate that the proposed method experiences an average reduction in retrieval time by an impressive 59 % compared to the original AERIoe algorithm while achieving maximum root-mean-square errors of less than 0.95 K and 0.22 log(ppmv) for heights below 3 km for the temperature and water vapor profile, respectively. Further analyses revealed that the fast-retrieval algorithm reached an acceptable convergence rate of 98.7 %, marginally lower than AERIoe's 99.9 % convergence rate for the 826 cases used in this study.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1998

Enhanced Sea Ice Concentration and Ice Temperature Algorithms for AMSR

Accurate quantification of sea ice concentration and ice temperature from satellite passive microwave data is important because they provide the only long term, spatially detailed and consistent data set needed to study the climatology of the polar regions. Sea ice concentration data are used to derive large-scale daily ice extents that are utilized in trend analysis of the global sea ice cover. They are also used to quantify the amount of open water and thin ice in polynya and divergence regions which together with ice temperatures are in turn needed to estimate vertical heat and salinity fluxes in these regions. Sea ice concentrations have been derived from the NASA Team and Bootstrap algorithms while a separate technique for deriving ice temperature has been reported. An integrated technique that will utilizes most of the channels of AMSR (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer) has been developed. The technique uses data from the 6 GHz and 37 GHz channels at vertical polarization obtain an initial estimate of sea ice concentration and ice temperature. The derived ice temperature is then utilized to estimate the emissivities for the corresponding observations at all the other channels. A procedure for calculating the ice concentration similar to the Bootstrap technique is then used but with variables being emissivities instead of brightness temperatures to minimizes errors associated with spatial changes in ice temperatures within the ice pack. Comparative studies of ice concentration results with those from other algorithms, including the original Bootstrap algorithm and those from high resolution satellite visible and infrared data will be presented. Also, results from a simulation study that demonstrates the effectiveness of the technique in correcting for spatial variations in ice temperatures will be shown. The ice temperature results are likewise compared with satellite infrared and buoy data with the latter adjusted to account for the effects of the snow cover.

Comiso, Josefino C.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Navigation Accuracy Guidelines for Orbital Formation Flying Missions

Some simple guidelines based on the accuracy in determining a satellite formation's semi-major axis differences are useful in making preliminary assessments of the navigation accuracy needed to support such missions. These guidelines are valid for any elliptical orbit, regardless of eccentricity. Although maneuvers required for formation establishment, reconfiguration, and station-keeping require accurate prediction of the state estimate to the maneuver we, and hence are directly affected by errors in all the orbital elements, experience has shown that determination of orbit plane orientation and orbit shape to acceptable levels is less challenging than the determination of orbital period or semi-major axis. Furthermore, any differences among the member s semi-major axes are undesirable for a satellite formation, since it will lead to differential along-track drift due to period differences. Since inevitable navigation errors prevent these differences from ever being zero, one may use the guidelines this paper presents to determine how much drift will result from a given relative navigation accuracy, or conversely what navigation accuracy is required to limit drift to a given rate. Since the guidelines do not account for non-two-body perturbations, they may be viewed as useful preliminary design tools, rather than as the basis for mission navigation requirements, which should be based on detailed analysis of the mission configuration, including all relevant sources of uncertainty.

Carpenter, J. Russell↗

NASA NTRS2004

Navigation Accuracy Guidelines for Orbital Formation Flying

Some simple guidelines based on the accuracy in determining a satellite formation s semi-major axis differences are useful in making preliminary assessments of the navigation accuracy needed to support such missions. These guidelines are valid for any elliptical orbit, regardless of eccentricity. Although maneuvers required for formation establishment, reconfiguration, and station-keeping require accurate prediction of the state estimate to the maneuver time, and hence are directly affected by errors in all the orbital elements, experience has shown that determination of orbit plane orientation and orbit shape to acceptable levels is less challenging than the determination of orbital period or semi-major axis. Furthermore, any differences among the member s semi-major axes are undesirable for a satellite formation, since it will lead to differential along-track drift due to period differences. Since inevitable navigation errors prevent these differences from ever being zero, one may use the guidelines this paper presents to determine how much drift will result from a given relative navigation accuracy, or conversely what navigation accuracy is required to limit drift to a given rate. Since the guidelines do not account for non-two-body perturbations, they may be viewed as useful preliminary design tools, rather than as the basis for mission navigation requirements, which should be based on detailed analysis of the mission configuration, including all relevant sources of uncertainty.

Carpenter, J. Russell↗

NASA NTRS2006

Cloud Radiative Forcing at the ARM Climate Research Facility: Technique, Validation, and Comparison to Satellite-derived Diagnostic Quantities - Part 1

It has been hypothesized that continuous ground-based remote sensing measurements from active and passive remote sensors combined with regular soundings of the atmospheric thermodynamic structure can be combined to describe the effects of clouds on the clear sky radiation fluxes. We critically test that hypothesis in this paper and a companion paper (Part II). Using data collected at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) site sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy, we explore an analysis methodology that results in the characterization of the physical state of the atmospheric profile at time resolutions of five minutes and vertical resolutions of 90 m. The description includes thermodynamics and water vapor profile information derived by merging radiosonde soundings with ground-based data, and continues through specification of the cloud layer occurrence and microphysical and radiative properties derived from retrieval algorithms and parameterizations. The description of the atmospheric physical state includes a calculation of the infrared and clear and cloudy sky solar flux profiles. Validation of the methodology is provided by comparing the calculated fluxes with top of atmosphere (TOA) and surface flux measurements and by comparing the total column optical depths to independently derived estimates. We find over a 1-year period of comparison in overcast uniform skies, that the calculations are strongly correlated to measurements with biases in the flux quantities at the surface and TOA of less than 10% and median fractional errors ranging from 20% to as low as 2%. In the optical depth comparison for uniform overcast skies during the year 2000 where the optical depth varies over 3 orders of magnitude we find a mean positive bias of 46% with a median bias of less than 10% and a 0.89 correlation coefficient. The slope of the linear regression line for the optical depth comparison is 0.86 with a normal deviation of 20% about this line. In addition to a case study where we examine the cloud radiative effects at the TOA, surface and atmosphere by a middle latitude synoptic-scale cyclone, we examine the cloud top pressure and optical depth retrievals of ISCCP and LBTM over a period of 1 year. Using overcast period from the year 2000, we find that the satellite algorithms tend to bias cloud tops into the middle troposphere and underestimate optical depth in high optical depth events (greater than 100) by as much as a factor of 2.

Mace, Gerald G.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Towards sharp error analysis of extended Lagrangian molecular dynamics

The extended Lagrangian molecular dynamics (XLMD) method provides a useful framework for reducing the computational cost of a class of molecular dynamics simulations with constrained latent variables. The XLMD method relaxes the constraints by introducing a fictitious mass ε for the latent variables and solving a set of singularly perturbed ordinary differential equations. While favorable numerical performance of XLMD has been demonstrated in several different contexts in the past decade, mathematical analysis of the method remains scarce. Here, we propose the first error analysis of the XLMD method in the context of a classical polarizable force field model. While the dynamics with respect to the atomic degrees of freedom are general and nonlinear, the key mathematical simplification of the polarizable force field model is that the constraints on the latent variables are given by a linear system of equations. We prove that when the initial value of the latent variables is compatible in a sense that we define, XLMD converges as the fictitious mass ε is made small with $\mathscr{O}$(ε) error for the atomic degrees of freedom and with $\mathscr{O}$($\sqrt{ε}$) error for the latent variables, when the dimension of the latent variable d' is 1. Furthermore, when the initial value of the latent variables is improved to be optimally compatible in a certain sense, we prove that the convergence rate can be improved to $\mathscr{O}$(ε) for the latent variables as well. Numerical results verify that both estimates are sharp not only for d'=1, but also for arbitrary d'. In the setting of general d', we do obtain convergence, but with the non-sharp rate of $\mathscr{O}$($\sqrt{ε}$) for both the atomic and latent variables.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2017

Modeling the Extremely Lightweight Zerodur Mirror (ELZM) Thermal Soak Test

Exoplanet science requires extreme wavefront stability (10 pm change/10 minutes), so every source of wavefront error (WFE) must be characterized in detail. This work illustrates the testing and characterization process that will be used to determine how much surface figure error (SFE) is produced by mirror substrate materials' CTE distributions. Schott's extremely lightweight Zerodur mirror (ELZM) was polished to a sphere, mounted, and tested at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) in the X-Ray and Cryogenic Test Facility (XRCF). The test transitioned the mirror's temperature from an isothermal state at 292K to isothermal states at 275K, 250K and 230K to isolate the effects of the mirror's CTE distribution. The SFE was measured interferometrically at each temperature state and finite element analysis (FEA) has been completed to assess the predictability of the change in the mirror's surface due to a change in the mirror's temperature. The coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) distribution in the ELZM is unknown, so the analysis has been correlated to the test data. The correlation process requires finding the sensitivity of SFE to a given CTE distribution in the mirror. A novel hand calculation is proposed to use these sensitivities to estimate thermally induced SFE. The correlation process was successful and is documented in this paper. The CTE map that produces the measured SFE is in line with the measured data of typical boules of Schott's Zerodur glass.

Brooks, Thomas E.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Estimating high mosquito-producing rice fields using spectral and spatial data

The cultivation of irrigated rice provides ideal larval habitat for a number of anopheline vectors of malaria throughout the world. Anopheles freeborni, a potential vector of human malaria, is associated with the nearly 240,000 hectares of irrigated rice grown annually in Northern and Central California; therefore, this species can serve as a model for the study of rice field anopheline population dynamics. Analysis of field data revealed that rice fields with early season canopy development, that are located near bloodmeal sources (i.e., pastures with livestock) were more likely to produce anopheline larvae than fields with less developed canopies located further from pastures. Remote sensing reflectance measurements of early-season canopy development and geographic information system (GIS) measurements of distanes between rice fields and pastures with livestock were combined to distinguish between high and low mosquito-producing rice fields. Using spectral and distance measures in either a discriminant or Bayesian analysis, the identification of high mosquito-producing fields was made with 85 percent accuracy nearly two months before anopheline larval populations peaked. Since omission errors were also minimized by these approaches, they could provide a new basis for directing abatement techniques for the control of malaria vectors.

Wood, B. L.↗