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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,783 records · Page 99
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1993

Earth observing scanning polarimeter

Climate forcing by tropospheric aerosols is receiving increased attention because of the realization that the climate effects may be large, while our knowledge of global aerosol characteristics and temporal changes is very poor. Tropospheric aerosols cause a direct radiative forcing due simply to their scattering and absorption of solar radiation, as well as an indirect effect as cloud condensation nuclei which can modify the shortwave reflectivity of clouds. Sulfate aerosols tend to increase planetary albedo through both the direct and indirect effects; a cooling due to anthropogenic sulfate aerosols has been estimated of order 1 W/sq m, noting that this is similar in magnitude to the present anthropogenic greenhouse gas warming. Other aerosols, including those from biomass burning and wind-blown desert dust are also of potential climatic importance. At present, the only global monitoring of tropospheric aerosols is a NOAA operational product, aerosol optical thickness, obtained using channel-1 (0.58-0.68 mu m) radiances from the AVHRR. With this single channel radiance data, one must use an approach which is based on the inferred excess of reflected radiance owing to scattering by the aerosols over that expected from theoretical calculations. This approach is suited only for situations where the surface has a low albedo that is well known a priori. Thus, the NOAA operational product is restricted to coverage over the ocean at AVHRR scan angles well away from sun glint, and aerosol changes are subject to confusion with changes caused by either optically thin or subpixel clouds. Because optically thin aerosols have only a small effect on the radiance, accurate measurements for optical thickness less than 0.1 (which is a typical background level) are precluded. Moreover, some of the largest and most important aerosol changes are expected over land. The Earth Observing Scanning Polarimeter (EOSP) instrument, based upon design heritage and analysis techniques developed for planetary missions, will retrieve tropospheric aerosol characteristics from measurements of multispectral radiance and polarization. Moreover, the same radiance and polarization measurements will also provide very precise information on cloud properties and maps of surface characteristics for cloud-free regions. These capabilities also give EOSP the unique ability to discriminate aerosol from clouds and surface.

Travis, Larry↗
NASA NTRS1998

Compositional Variation in Lunar Regolith Samples: Lateral

The composition of samples of lunar regolith collected on the Apollo and Luna missions are highly variable; the lunar meteorites, most of which are breccias of lithified regolith from unknown locations on the Moon, extend the compositional range. Some aspects of regolith composition as inferred from studies of samples that are relevant for interpretation of data obtained remotely are discussed.

Korotev, Randy L.↗
NASA NTRS1996

On Kinetics Modeling of Vibrational Energy Transfer

Two models of vibrational energy exchange are compared at equilibrium to the elementary vibrational exchange reaction for a binary mixture. The first model, non-linear in the species vibrational energies, was derived by Schwartz, Slawsky, and Herzfeld (SSH) by considering the detailed kinetics of vibrational energy levels. This model recovers the result demanded at equilibrium by the elementary reaction. The second model is more recent, and is gaining use in certain areas of computational fluid dynamics. This model, linear in the species vibrational energies, is shown not to recover the required equilibrium result. Further, this more recent model is inconsistent with its suggested rate constants in that those rate constants were inferred from measurements by using the SSH model to reduce the data. The non-linear versus linear nature of these two models can lead to significant differences in vibrational energy coupling. Use of the contemporary model may lead to significant misconceptions, especially when integrated in computer codes considering multiple energy coupling mechanisms.

Gilmore, John O.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Cardiovascular responses of snakes to hypergravity

Snakes have provided useful vertebrate models for understanding circulatory adaptation to gravity, attributable to their elongate body shape and evolutionary diversificaton in terms of ecology and behavior. Recently we have studied cardiovascular responses of snakes to hypergravic acceleration forces produced acutely in the head-to-tail direction (+Gz) on a short-arm centrifuge. Snakes were held in a nearly straight position within a horizontal plastic tube and subjected to a linear force gradient during acceleration. Carotid blood flow provided an integrated measure of cardiovascular performance. Thus, cardiovascular tolerance of snakes to stepwise increments of Gz was measured as the caudal Gz force at which carotid blood flow ceased. Tolerance to increasing Gz varies according to adaptive evolutionary history inferred from the ecology and behavior of species. With respect to data for six species we investigated, multiple regression analysis demonstrates that Gz tolerance correlates with gravitational habitat, independently of body length. Relative to aquatic and non-climbing species, carotid blood flow is better maintained in arboreal or scansorial species, which tolerate hypergravic forces of +2 to +3.5 Gz. Additionally, semi-arboreal rat snakes (Elaphe obsoleta) exhibit plasticity of responses to long-term, intermittent +1.5 Gz stress. Compared to non-acclimated controls, acclimated snakes show greater increases of heart rate during head-up tilt or acceleration, greater sensitivity of arterial pressure to circulating catecholamines, higher blood levels of prostaglandin ratios favorable to maintenance of arterial blood pressure, and medial hypertrophy in major arteries and veins. As in other vertebrates, Gz tolerance of snakes is enhanced by acclimation, high arterial pressure, comparatively large blood volume, and body movements. Vascular studies of snakes suggest the importance to acclimation of local responses involving vascular tissue, in addition to centrally mediated responses to fluid shifts.

Review, Tutorial↗
NASA NTRS2005

Lunar and Planetary Science XXXVI, Part 1

Contents include the following: Observations with Near Infrared Spectrometer for Hayabusa Mission in the Cruising Phase. First Results of Quadrantid Meteor Spectrum. Compositional Investigation of Binary Near-Earth Asteroid 66063 (1998 RO1): A Potentially Undifferentiated Assemblage. Impact-induced Hydrothermal Activity on Early Mars. HRTEM and EFTEM Studies of Phyllosilicate-Organic Matter Associations in Matrix and Dark Inclusions in the EET92042 CR2 Carbonaceous Chondrite. Volumetric Analysis of Martian Rampart Craters. High Pressure Melting of H-Chondrite: A Match for the Martian Basalt Source Mantle. MERView: A New Computer Program for Easy Display of MER-acquired M ssbauer Data. Distribution, Exchange, and Topographic Control of Subsurface Ice on Mars. Shock-induced Damage Beneath Normal and Oblique Impact Craters. Amphitrites Patera Studied from the Mars Express HRSC Data. Oxygen Isotope Microanalysis of Enveloping Compound Chondrules in CV3 and LL3 Chondrites. Gamma-Ray Irradiation in the Early Solar System and the Conundrum of the Lu-176 Decay Constant. Magnesium Isotope Mapping of Silica-rich Grains Having. Extreme Oxygen Isotope Anomalies Extreme Oxygen Isotopic Anomalies from Irradiation in the Early Solar System, Re-Examining the Role of Chondrules in Producing the Elemental Fractionations in Chondrites. Meteorite Data on the Solar Modulation of Galactic Cosmic Rays and an Inference on the Solar Activity Influence on Climate of the Earth. Volatiles Enrichments and Composition of Jupiter. Thinking Like a Wildcatter Prospecting for Methane in Arabia Terra, Mars. Size Distribution of Genesis Solar Wind Array Collector Fragments. Initial Subdivision of Genesis Early Science Polished Aluminum Collector. Presolar Graphite and Its Noble Gases. Young Pb-Isotopic Ages of Chondrules in CB Carbonaceous Chondrites. Fe Isotopic Composition of Martian Meteorites. Petrology and Geochemistry of Nakhlite MIL 03346: A New Martian Meteorite from Antarctica.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2021

The X-Ray Pulsar XTE J1858+034 Observed with NuSTAR and Fermi/GBM: Spectral and Timing Characterization plus a Cyclotron Line

Accreting X-ray pulsars (XRPs) undergo luminous X-ray outbursts during which the spectral and timing behavior of the neutron star can be studied in detail. We analyze a NuSTAR observation of the XRP XTE J1858+034 during its outburst in 2019. The spectrum is fit with a phenomenological, a semi-empirical and a physical spectral model. A candidate cyclotron line is found at 48 keV, implying a magnetic field of 5.4×1012G at the site of emission. This is also supported by the physical best-fit model. A nominal Gaia distance of 1.55 kpc is available for a star that is close to – although not coincident with – the previously proposed optical counterpart but, based on Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor data, the standard disk accretion-torque theory allowed us to infer a distance of 10.9±1.0 kpc. Pulse profiles are single-peaked and show a pulsed fraction that is strongly energy-dependent at least up to 40keV.

C Malacaria↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Chemistry of Venus’ Recent Basalts as Clues to its Ancient Past

Perhaps the most important question about Venus is whether it ever had a hydrosphere: liquid water, oceans, and thus an environment suitable for life as we know it. The D/H of Venus’ atmosphere suggests extensive water loss, and climate models may be consistent with global oceans. Rocks dating from that epoch may be preserved in Venus’ tesserae (and especially Ishtar Terra) – inferred to of felsic or silicic rock, which would suggest abundant water. However, the exact elemental compositions of tesserae (silicic or not) will be difficult to retrieve and most of Venus’ surface is basalt flows and volcanic constructs, inferred to be much younger than the oceanic epoch. Remotely sensed data are (and will be) ambiguous about the specific rock types that make up tesserae, and lander spacecraft are almost certain (in the near term) to avoid the rough and precipitous topography of the tesserae and touch down instead on flat, safe basaltic plains or volcanic rises. ‘Recent’ basalts at Venus’ surface could preserve chemical tracers of an ancient aqueous past, if their source regions (material that was re-melted) had been affected by water. This scenario occurs on Earth in Island Arc Basalts (IAB), where their compositions are thought to reflect aqueous alteration of parental midocean ridge basalts (MORB) and incorporation of oceanic sediments. Ancient Venus might have supported plate tectonic and thus have had IAB equivalents; absent plate tectonics, basalt affected by aqueous alteration could have been cycled into its mantle by burial under thick sections of later basalt. Our purpose is to suggest specific chemical clues in current basalts that would permit recognition of those with a history of aqueous interactions from those that did not. We compare Earth’s Ocean Island Basalts (OIB) that involved little water with IAB that show chemical effects ascribable to water. It is not clear that Venus’ basalts can be mapped into terrestrial tectonic settings; however, it seems reasonable that aqueous geochemical processes could have (had) similar effects on both planets.

A H Treiman↗
NASA NTRS2023

Launch Complex 39B, SWMU 009 Air Sparging System Expansion Implementation Work Plan Kennedy Space Center, Florida

This Implementation Work Plan (IWP) for expansion of the Air Sparging (AS) system at Launch Complex 39B (LC39B), presents the design and coordination specifics to expand the existing AS Interim Measure (IM) at LC39B located at Kennedy Space Center (KSC), Florida. The existing AS system at LC39B was installed in 2017 and included 279 AS wells. LC39B has been designated as Solid Waste Management Unit (SWMU) 009 under the KSC Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) Corrective Action Program. Expansion of the AS IM will include installation of an additional five AS wells to depths of approximately 13 and 17 feet below land surface (bls) to remediate contaminated groundwater identified northwest of the launch pad, near the liquid oxygen (LOX) tank. The expansion will target concentrations of cis-1,2-dichloroethene (cDCE) and vinyl chloride (VC) greater than Florida Department of Environmental Protection (FDEP) Natural Attenuation Default Concentrations (NADCs) that were identified during direct push technology (DPT) sampling events between 2019-2022 in shallow intervals between 8 and 16 feet bls. The objective for this expansion is to remediate contaminated groundwater within the treatment zone to below NADCs to support transition to monitored natural attenuation (MNA) through a long-term monitoring (LTM) program. This expansion will treat approximately 0.07-acres of residual groundwater contamination. The IWP design for this expansion will utilize the existing AS system trailer that is already onsite and operating. The five new AS expansion wells will be integrated into the existing Zone Z4 distribution manifold to deliver compressed air to the new AS wells. To deliver airflow, three existing lateral lines will be split in the field at a lateral split junction point (using 2-way or 3-way splits). Each split lateral will supply air to AS wells at the same depth interval to minimize preferential pathways. The trenching layout for the new AS wells was developed to minimize ground disturbance due to the amount of utilities in the area. One new monitoring well will also be installed and added to LC39B’s performance monitoring program to evaluate the effectiveness of the AS system expansion. This well will be sampled on a semi-annual basis for volatile organic compounds, with results evaluated to determine if system adjustments may be required. The main components of this IWP were presented to the KSC Remediation Team (KSCRT) at the October 2022 Meeting (Meeting 2210-M05). DPT delineation data from the LOX area were also presented, which included some inferred boundaries due to physical restrictions of the LOX tank and associated concrete pad and infrastructure. Planned monitoring well sampling in this area will help determine if back-diffusion may be occurring from beneath the pad. Additionally, based on potential petroleum odors and staining identified at two DPT locations during the January 2022 DPT event in the 10-16 feet bls range, a KSCRT action item was assigned during the October 2022 meeting to collect soil samples for petroleum compounds if similar odors or staining are identified during IM implementation. Construction completion and performance monitoring will be incorporated into LC39B’s groundwater monitoring reports, which are currently submitted on an annual basis to FDEP to document operation and maintenance activities and results from the AS IM.

Deborah M. Wilson↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

GT2024-128885: Flow Reconstruction in a Transonic Turbine Cascade using Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs)

This presentation investigates the application of Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) for the analysis of turbine blades in a transonic cascade. PINNs are a machine learning method trained on losses calculated from reconstructed governing equations, assigned boundary/initial conditions, and measured data. We reconstruct the 2-D flow field in a transonic turbine cascade in two ways: the traditional forward approach (without training/experimental data) and by training the PINN using experimental data. We then compare the PINN solutions to measured data. This is repeated for three different turbine blades with distinct loading characteristics. The experimental data used for training is the static pressure measurements along the suction and pressure sides of each blade. The PINN is trained utilizing all available data, half the available data, data from only the leading edge region, and data from only the trailing edge region. It's shown that the PINN can reconstruct the flow field in all cases with acceptable errors. Cases where the PINN is trained on all the data, and even half the data, resulted in the lowest errors. The exit Mach number is inferred for each case and compared to the experimentally calculated value.

Machine Learning↗
DOE OSTI2022

A laser ultrasonics-based approach for rapid screening of high entropy alloys

This project demonstrates a laser ultrasonics-based characterization methodology for rapid metallic materials design and discovery via in situ determination of phases, microstructures and elastic properties with respect to temperature. Ultrasonic waves are strongly affected by material microstructure, and therefore serve as a facile means to probe elastic properties, phase content and their size distributions and volume fractions. In this study, a laser ultrasonic technique is used to systematically study the evolution of properties in a set of interrelated simple binary alloys and high entropy alloys (HEA). Phase transformations and microstructural changes inferred from the ultrasonic signals will be correlated with electron microscopy data and predictions using calculations of phase diagrams (CALPHAD). The non-contact and non-destructive ultrasonic testing approach developed in this study could overcome several limitations associated with current material characterization methods for materials discovery. It is expected that laser ultrasonics-based methodology developed in this work will be utilized to evaluate novel graded composition HEAs currently being developed at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) using advanced manufacturing methods based on direct energy deposition and spark plasma sintering processes, and contribute to accelerate the discovery of HEAs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

A laser ultrasonics-based approach for rapid screening of high entropy alloys

The primary objective of this seed project is to develop a laser ultrasonics-based characterization methodology for rapid metallic materials design and discovery via in situ determination of phases, microstructures and elastic properties with respect to temperature. Ultrasonic waves are strongly affected by material microstructure, and therefore, serve as a facile means to probe elastic properties, phase content and their size distributions and volume fractions. In this study, a laser ultrasonic technique will be used to systematically study the evolution of properties in a set of interrelated simple binary alloys and high entropy alloys (HEA). Phase transformations and microstructural changes inferred from the ultrasonic signals will be correlated with electron microscopy data and predictions using calculations of phase diagrams (CALPHAD). The non-contact and non-destructive ultrasonic testing approach developed in this study could overcome several limitations associated with current material characterization methods for materials discovery. It is expected that the products of the proposed work will be utilized to evaluate novel graded composition HEAs currently being developed at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) using advanced manufacturing methods based on direct energy deposition and spark plasma sintering processes, and contribute to accelerate the discovery of HEAs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Comparisons of triple-differential cross sections for quasielastic-like $ν_μ$-hydrocarbon interactions using $\langle E_ν\rangle \sim$ 3~GeV versus $\sim$ 6~GeV beams in MINERvA

Neutrino charged-current quasielastic-like scattering, a reaction category extensively used in neutrino oscillation measurements, receives contributions from single nucleon knockout processes, multinucleon processes, and inelastic scattering with subsequent rescattering or absorption in the nucleus to produce only nucleons in the final state. In this article, comparisons are presented of the same measurement in two different wideband neutrino beams: one beam peaks near 3 GeV with few neutrinos above 6 GeV; the other peaks near 6 GeV with few neutrinos above 10 GeV. Comparisons of differential cross sections in muon and proton kinematics for these two exposures probe deviations from free-neutron scattering that arise from the processes involving the nuclear medium, and provide a test of neutrino interaction models used to infer neutrino energies in oscillation experiments. Discrepancies are observed between the data and predictions that point to overestimates of the final state interactions of both protons and charged pions in quasielastic-like events.

Ruterbories, D. [Rochester U.]↗
NASA NTRS1977

A simple thermal model of the earth's surface for geologic mapping by remote sensing

Thermal inertia of the earth's surface can be used in geologic mapping as a complement to surface reflectance data as provided by Landsat. Thermal inertia cannot be determined directly but must be inferred from radiation temperature measurements (by thermal IR sensors) made at various times in the diurnal cycle, combined with a model of the surface heating processes. A model is developed which differs from those created previously for this purpose, because it includes sensible and latent heating. Tests of this model using field data indicate that it accurately determines the surface heating. When the model is used with field measurements of meteorological variables and is combined with remotely sensed temperature data, a thermal inertia image can be produced.

Kahle, A. B.↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Parameter-masked Mock Data Challenge for Beyond-two-point Galaxy Clustering Statistics

The past few years have seen the emergence of a wide array of novel techniques for analyzing high-precision data from upcoming galaxy surveys, which aim to extend the statistical analysis of galaxy clustering data beyond the linear regime and the canonical two-point (2pt) statistics. We test and benchmark some of these new techniques in a community data challenge named “Beyond-2pt,” initiated during the Aspen 2022 Summer Program “Large-Scale Structure Cosmology beyond 2-Point Statistics,” whose first round of results we present here. The challenge data set consists of high-precision mock galaxy catalogs for clustering in real space, in redshift space, and on a light cone. Participants in the challenge have developed end-to-end pipelines to analyze mock catalogs and extract unknown (“masked”) cosmological parameters of the underlying ΛCDM models with their methods. The methods represented are density-split clustering, nearest neighbor statistics, BACCO power spectrum emulator, void statistics, LEFTfield field-level inference using effective field theory (EFT), and joint power spectrum and bispectrum analyses using both EFT and simulation-based inference. In this work, we review the results of the challenge, focusing on problems solved, lessons learned, and future research needed to perfect the emerging beyond-2pt approaches. The unbiased parameter recovery demonstrated in this challenge by multiple statistics and the associated modeling and inference frameworks supports the credibility of cosmology constraints from these methods. The challenge data set is publicly available, and we welcome future submissions from methods that are not yet represented.

Krause, Elisabeth [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (U↗
DOE OSTI2021

FTICR, NPOC, TN, and Moisture of Variably Inundated Sediment across 48 North American Rivers

This dataset supports a broader study examining drivers of organic matter chemistry in variably inundated hyporheic zone sediments and further linking that chemistry to biogeochemical rates. The dataset provides physical and chemical sediment data collected from 48 rivers across North America. There are related data that will be published, including surficial sediment temperature time series that can be used to infer the dynamics of inundation prior to the collection of sediments. This dataset is comprised of two folders: (1) ECA2_Sediment and (2) ECA2_SitePhotos. The ECA2_Sediment folder contains: (1) file-level metadata; (2) data dictionary; (3) field metadata; (4) non-purgeable organic carbon (NPOC), total nitrogen (TN), and sediment moisture; (5) sediment sampling protocol, (6) readme, and (7) folder of high resolution characterization of organic matter from sediment extracts via 12 Tesla Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FTICR-MS) through the Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory (EMSL; https://www.pnnl.gov/environmental-molecular-sciences-laboratory). The FTICR-MS files are .xml, and the data package includes instructions for using Formularity (https://omics.pnl.gov/software/formularity) and an R script to process the data based on the user's specific needs. All other files are .csv, .txt, or .pdf. The ECA2_SitePhotos folder contains a readme and site photographs taken in the field. All files are .txt or .jpg.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Exploring the physics of cesium lead halide perovskite quantum dots via Bayesian inference of the photoluminescence spectra in automated experiment

The unique optoelectronic properties of metal halide perovskite quantum dots (QDs) make them promising candidates for applications in light-emitting diodes (LEDs), scintillators, and other photonic devices. The automated micropipetting synthesis platform equipped with an optical reader enables the opportunity for high throughput synthesis and photoluminescent (PL) characterization of metal halide perovskite QDs for the first time. Here, we explore the compositional dependence of the PL behavior and stability of the combinatorial library of cesium lead halide (CsPbX 3 ) perovskites QDs via the automated platform. To study the stability of synthesized QDs in the binary and ternary configurations, we study the time-dependent PL properties using previously developed machine learning analysis. Additionally, to systematically explore the PL behavior in the ternary CsPbX 3 QDs system, we introduce the Bayesian inference framework that allows the probabilistic fit of multiple models to the PL data and establishes both optimal model and model parameter robustly. Furthermore, these behaviors can be used as a control parameter for the navigation of the multidimensional compositional spaces in automated synthesis. Furthermore, this analysis shows the nonuniformity of the PL peak behavior in the ternary CsPbX 3 QDs system. Further, the analysis confirms narrow size distribution and good quality of CsPbBr 3 QDs alloyed with low concentrations of iodide and chloride. We note that Bayesian Inference fit parameters can be further used as a control signal for navigation of the chemical spaces in automated synthesis.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

DESI DR2 results. II. Measurements of baryon acoustic oscillations and cosmological constraints

We present baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements from more than 14 million galaxies and quasars drawn from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Data Release 2 (DR2), based on three years of operation. For cosmology inference, these galaxy measurements are combined with DESI Lyman-𝛼 forest BAO results presented in a companion paper (M. Abdul-Karim et al., companion paper, Phys. Rev. D 112, 083514 2025.). The DR2 BAO results are consistent with DESI DR1 and the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, and their distance-redshift relationship matches those from recent compilations of supernovae (SNe) over the same redshift range. The results are well described by a flat Λ cold dark matter (Λ⁢CDM) model, but the parameters preferred by BAO are in mild, 2.3⁢𝜎 tension with those determined from the cosmic microwave background (CMB), although the DESI results are consistent with the acoustic angular scale 𝜃 * that is well measured by Planck. This tension is alleviated by dark energy with a time-evolving equation of state parametrized by 𝑤0 and 𝑤𝑎, which provides a better fit to the data, with a favored solution in the quadrant with 𝑤 0 >−1 and 𝑤 𝑎 <0. This solution is preferred over Λ ⁢CDM at 3.1⁢𝜎 for the combination of DESI BAO and CMB data. When also including SNe, the preference for a dynamical dark energy model over Λ⁢ CDM ranges from 2.8 − 4.2⁢𝜎 depending on which SNe sample is used. We present evidence from other data combinations which also favor the same behavior at high significance. From the combination of DESI and CMB we derive 95% upper limits on the sum of neutrino masses, finding ∑𝑚 𝜈 < 0.064 eV assuming Λ ⁢CDM and ∑𝑚 𝜈 < 0.16 eV in the 𝑤0⁢𝑤𝑎 model. Unless there is an unknown systematic error associated with one or more datasets, it is clear that Λ⁢ CDM is being challenged by the combination of DESI BAO with other measurements and that dynamical dark energy offers a possible solution.

Baryon acoustic oscillations↗
DOE OSTI2023

Inverse Reinforcement Learning based Bayesian Goal Inference Method for Early Nuclear Proliferation Detection

Traditional methods for detection of nuclear proliferation indicators are usually applied after nuclear proliferation has already occurred. There is a need to advance these methods to perform early detection of nuclear proliferation indicators. In this project, we formulated an early detection problem as a sequential, decision-making, goal inference problem based on research publications of authors, to determine whether it is possible to infer whether an author will publish on a research activity before it has occurred. To develop and test our approach, we selected a civil nuclear activity for our case study. We constructed a state-action-state transition graph from publications of authors associated with the activity and the co-authors of their publications, using titles, abstracts, and author publication sequences. We then used inverse reinforcement learning to model the goal-directed behavior of authors in trajectories that terminate at selected goal states. Using a Bayesian formulation, we computed the probability that authors would reach each selected state from partially observed trajectories of their state transitions in their research topic space. The state with the highest probability was selected as the most probable goal state. Based on our results, we found that 60% of the times we can infer the correct goal state early; sometimes the inference is either delayed, or multiple states could be inferred as goal states. Overall, our results show that it is possible to perform early detection of research activities of authors in a nuclear technology area. Further research is necessary to establish a more accurate understanding of how topic modeling, topic space grid discretization, and the extent of overlap among trajectories of different goal states, affect the goal inference results. The methods developed in this work may be used to enhance data-driven methods for early detection of nuclear proliferation indicators.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗