Results for “applied statistics” — Page 99

NASA NTRS1993

Flow interaction experiment. Volume 1: Aerothermal modeling, phase 2

An experimental and computational study is reported for the flow of a turbulent jet discharging into a rectangular enclosure. The experimental configurations consisting of primary jets only, annular jets only, and a combination of annular and primary jets are investigated to provide a better understanding of the flow field in an annular combustor. A laser Doppler velocimeter is used to measure mean velocity and Reynolds stress components. Major features of the flow field include recirculation, primary and annular jet interaction, and high turbulence. A significant result from this study is the effect the primary jets have on the flow field. The primary jets are seen to create statistically larger recirculation zones and higher turbulence levels. In addition, a technique called marker nephelometry is used to provide mean concentration values in the model combustor. Computations are performed using three levels of turbulence closures, namely k-epsilon model, algebraic second moment (ASM), and differential second moment (DSM) closure. Two different numerical schemes are applied. One is the lower-order power-law differencing scheme (PLDS) and the other is the higher-order flux-spline differencing scheme (FSDS). A comparison is made of the performance of these schemes. The numerical results are compared with experimental data. For the cases considered in this study, the FSDS is more accurate than the PLDS. For a prescribed accuracy, the flux-spline scheme requires a far fewer number of grid points. Thus, it has the potential for providing a numerical error-free solution, especially for three-dimensional flows, without requiring an excessively fine grid. Although qualitatively good comparison with data was obtained, the deficiencies regarding the modeled dissipation rate (epsilon) equation, pressure-strain correlation model, and the inlet epsilon profile and other critical closure issues need to be resolved before one can achieve the degree of accuracy required to analytically design combustion systems.

Nikjooy, M.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Flow interaction experiment. Volume 2: Aerothermal modeling, phase 2

An experimental and computational study is reported for the flow of a turbulent jet discharging into a rectangular enclosure. The experimental configurations consisting of primary jets only, annular jets only, and a combination of annular and primary jets are investigated to provide a better understanding of the flow field in an annular combustor. A laser Doppler velocimeter is used to measure mean velocity and Reynolds stress components. Major features of the flow field include recirculation, primary and annular jet interaction, and high turbulence. A significant result from this study is the effect the primary jets have on the flow field. The primary jets are seen to create statistically larger recirculation zones and higher turbulence levels. In addition, a technique called marker nephelometry is used to provide mean concentration values in the model combustor. Computations are performed using three levels of turbulence closures, namely k-epsilon model, algebraic second moment (ASM), and differential second moment (DSM) closure. Two different numerical schemes are applied. One is the lower-order power-law differencing scheme (PLDS) and the other is the higher-order flux-spline differencing scheme (FSDS). A comparison is made of the performance of these schemes. The numerical results are compared with experimental data. For the cases considered in this study, the FSDS is more accurate than the PLDS. For a prescribed accuracy, the flux-spline scheme requires a far fewer number of grid points. Thus, it has the potential for providing a numerical error-free solution, especially for three-dimensional flows, without requiring an excessively fine grid. Although qualitatively good comparison with data was obtained, the deficiencies regarding the modeled dissipation rate (epsilon) equation, pressure-strain correlation model, and the inlet epsilon profile and other critical closure issues need to be resolved before one can achieve the degree of accuracy required to analytically design combustion systems.

Nikjooy, M.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Probabilistic Analysis of Aircraft Gas Turbine Disk Life and Reliability

Two series of low cycle fatigue (LCF) test data for two groups of different aircraft gas turbine engine compressor disk geometries were reanalyzed and compared using Weibull statistics. Both groups of disks were manufactured from titanium (Ti-6Al-4V) alloy. A NASA Glenn Research Center developed probabilistic computer code Probable Cause was used to predict disk life and reliability. A material-life factor A was determined for titanium (Ti-6Al-4V) alloy based upon fatigue disk data and successfully applied to predict the life of the disks as a function of speed. A comparison was made with the currently used life prediction method based upon crack growth rate. Applying an endurance limit to the computer code did not significantly affect the predicted lives under engine operating conditions. Failure location prediction correlates with those experimentally observed in the LCF tests. A reasonable correlation was obtained between the predicted disk lives using the Probable Cause code and a modified crack growth method for life prediction. Both methods slightly overpredict life for one disk group and significantly under predict it for the other.

Melis, Matthew E.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Generalized Linear Covariance Analysis

We review and extend in two directions the results of prior work on generalized covariance analysis methods. This prior work allowed for partitioning of the state space into "solve-for" and "consider" parameters, allowed for differences between the formal values and the true values of the measurement noise, process noise, and a priori solve-for and consider covariances, and explicitly partitioned the errors into subspaces containing only the influence of the measurement noise, process noise, and a priori solve-for and consider covariances. In this work, we explicitly add sensitivity analysis to this prior work, and relax an implicit assumption that the batch estimator s anchor time occurs prior to the definitive span. We also apply the method to an integrated orbit and attitude problem, in which gyro and accelerometer errors, though not estimated, influence the orbit determination performance. We illustrate our results using two graphical presentations, which we call the "variance sandpile" and the "sensitivity mosaic," and we compare the linear covariance results to confidence intervals associated with ensemble statistics from a Monte Carlo analysis.

Carpenter, J. Russell↗

NASA NTRS2014

Generalized Linear Covariance Analysis

This talk presents a comprehensive approach to filter modeling for generalized covariance analysis of both batch least-squares and sequential estimators. We review and extend in two directions the results of prior work that allowed for partitioning of the state space into solve-for'' and consider'' parameters, accounted for differences between the formal values and the true values of the measurement noise, process noise, and textita priori solve-for and consider covariances, and explicitly partitioned the errors into subspaces containing only the influence of the measurement noise, process noise, and solve-for and consider covariances. In this work, we explicitly add sensitivity analysis to this prior work, and relax an implicit assumption that the batch estimator's epoch time occurs prior to the definitive span. We also apply the method to an integrated orbit and attitude problem, in which gyro and accelerometer errors, though not estimated, influence the orbit determination performance. We illustrate our results using two graphical presentations, which we call the variance sandpile'' and the sensitivity mosaic,'' and we compare the linear covariance results to confidence intervals associated with ensemble statistics from a Monte Carlo analysis.

Navagation↗

NASA NTRS2014

Generalized Linear Covariance Analysis

This talk presents a comprehensive approach to filter modeling for generalized covariance analysis of both batch least-squares and sequential estimators. We review and extend in two directions the results of prior work that allowed for partitioning of the state space into solve-for'' and consider'' parameters, accounted for differences between the formal values and the true values of the measurement noise, process noise, and textita priori solve-for and consider covariances, and explicitly partitioned the errors into subspaces containing only the influence of the measurement noise, process noise, and solve-for and consider covariances. In this work, we explicitly add sensitivity analysis to this prior work, and relax an implicit assumption that the batch estimator's epoch time occurs prior to the definitive span. We also apply the method to an integrated orbit and attitude problem, in which gyro and accelerometer errors, though not estimated, influence the orbit determination performance. We illustrate our results using two graphical presentations, which we call the variance sandpile'' and the sensitivity mosaic,'' and we compare the linear covariance results to confidence intervals associated with ensemble statistics from a Monte Carlo analysis.

n/a↗

NASA NTRS1987

Personal computer (PC) based image processing applied to fluid mechanics research

A PC based image processing system was employed to determine the instantaneous velocity field of a two-dimensional unsteady flow. The flow was visualized using a suspension of seeding particles in water, and a laser sheet for illumination. With a finite time exposure, the particle motion was captured on a photograph as a pattern of streaks. The streak pattern was digitized and processsed using various imaging operations, including contrast manipulation, noise cleaning, filtering, statistical differencing, and thresholding. Information concerning the velocity was extracted from the enhanced image by measuring the length and orientation of the individual streaks. The fluid velocities deduced from the randomly distributed particle streaks were interpolated to obtain velocities at uniform grid points. For the interpolation a simple convolution technique with an adaptive Gaussian window was used. The results are compared with a numerical prediction by a Navier-Stokes commputation.

Cho, Y.-C.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Assessing the Influence of Climate on the Spatial Pattern of West Nile Virus Incidence in the United States

West Nile virus (WNV) is the leading cause of mosquito-borne disease in humans in the United States. Since the introduction of the disease in 1999, incidence levels have stabilized in many regions, allowing for analysis of climate conditions that shape the spatial structure of disease incidence. Our goal was to identify the seasonal climate variables that influence the spatial extent and magnitude of WNV incidence in humans. We developed a predictive model of contemporary mean annual WNV incidence using U.S. county-level case reports from 2005 to 2019 and seasonally averaged climate variables. We used a random forest model that had an out-of-sample model performance of R 2 =0.61. Our model accurately captured the V-shaped area of higher WNV incidence that extends from states on the Canadian border south through the middle of the Great Plains. It also captured a region of moderate WNV incidence in the southern Mississippi Valley. The highest levels of WNV incidence were in regions with dry and cold winters and wet and mild summers. The random forest model classified counties with average winter precipitation levels <23.3 mm/month as having incidence levels over 11 times greater than those of counties that are wetter. Among the climate predictors, winter precipitation, fall precipitation, and winter temperature were the three most important predictive variables. We consider which aspects of the WNV transmission cycle climate conditions may benefit the most and argued that dry and cold winters are climate conditions optimal for the mosquito species key to amplifying WNV transmission. Our statistical model may be useful in projecting shifts in WNV risk in response to climate change.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Single-Filament Imaging Mass Spectrometry Lipidomics in Arthrospira platensis

Elucidating intra-organismal biochemical and lipid organization in photosynthetic biological cell factories of filamentous cyanobacteria, i.e., Arthrospira platensis (Spirulina), is important to track physiological response mechanisms during growth. Little is known about the filaments' biochemical organization and cellular structure and no label-free imaging techniques exist that provide molecular mapping. We applied ultra-high resolution mass spectrometry (7T FT-ICR-MS) matrix-assisted laser desorption ionization (MALDI) imaging to immobilized Spirulina filaments to investigate the localization of lipids across distinct physiological regions. We optimized matrix selection and deposition methods with the goal of facilitating high spatial, and intra-filament, resolution using untargeted multivariate statistical spectral deconvolution across MS pixels. Our results demonstrate an improved two step application with an optimized procedure for intra-organismal lipid profiling to improve analyte sensitivity and achieve higher spatial resolution, whereby we evaluate three conventional matrices 2,5-dihydroxybenzoic acid (DHB), a 9:1 ratio of DHB:superDHB (sDHB), 1,5- diaminonaphthalene (DAN) and a 50:50 mix of DHB:sDHB and compare delineation and pixel-based elucidation of intra-filament lipidomics. We identified a total of 1,626 features that could be putatively assigned a lipid-like formula based on database query and 46 unique features, with associated lipid assignments that were significantly distinct in their intra-filament location. MALDI- imaging MS with untargeted statistical spectral deconvolution was used to visualize intra-filament lipidomics organization in Spirulina filaments. Improvements in matrix deposition, including sequential sublimation and pneumatic spraying, increased signal abundance at high spatial resolution and allowed for identification of distinct lipid composition regions. Here in this work outlines a methodology that may be used for micro-ecological untargeted molecular phenotyping.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Equilibrium distribution of point defects in Fe-Y-O as a typical representative of nanocluster-strengthened alloys

The statistical mechanic approach has been used to estimate the equilibrium defect distribution in a multiphase system by minimizing its free energy using microstructural characteristics and a finite set of defects obtained by first-principles calculations. Recently the approach was extended to take in consideration defects at the interface of the precipitate and matrix. Herein we apply the developed approach to the investigation of the stability of bcc Fe containing yttria, Y 2 O 3 , nanoclusters as a prototype of nanostructured ferritic alloys. It has been obtained that (100)Fe-O interface is unstable with respect to vacancies production. In a contrast to (100)Fe-O interface, the so called Klim interface is stable, i.e. local vacancy concentration at this interface at 600 K is below 10 -12 . It has been demonstrated that due to large defect formation energies the ODS particles are extremely stable and the main defect corresponds to Fe atoms substitute Y in Y 2 O 3 precipitate. Moreover, under thermodynamic equilibrium condition, the preexist vacancies in bulk Fe do not accumulate oxygen atom. The later observation not necessarily forbid the existence of a large amount of preexisting Fe vacancy - oxygen atom clusters at the initial stages of alloy formation far from equilibrium.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Electronic structure and optical properties of quantum crystals from first principles calculations in the Born–Oppenheimer approximation

In this work, we develop a formalism to accurately account for the renormalization of the electronic structure due to quantum and thermal nuclear motions within the Born–Oppenheimer approximation. We focus on the fundamental energy gap obtained from electronic addition and removal energies from quantum Monte Carlo calculations in either the canonical or grand-canonical ensembles. The formalism applies as well to effective single electron theories such as those based on density functional theory. We show that the electronic (Bloch) crystal momentum can be restored by marginalizing the total electron–ion wave function with respect to the nuclear equilibrium distribution, and we describe an explicit procedure to establish the band structure of electronic excitations for quantum crystals within the Born–Oppenheimer approximation. Based on the Kubo–Greenwood equation, we discuss the effects of nuclear motion on optical conductivity. Our methodology applies to the low temperature regime where nuclear motion is quantized and, in general, differs from the semi-classical approximation. We apply our method to study the electronic structure of C2/c-24 crystalline hydrogen at 200 K and 250 GPa and discuss the optical absorption profile of hydrogen crystals at 200 K and carbon diamond at 297 K.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Parity-odd four-point correlation function from the DESI data release 1 luminous red galaxy sample

The parity-odd four-point function provides a unique probe of fundamental symmetries and potential new physics in the large-scale structure of the Universe. We present measurements of the parity-odd four-point function using the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) DR1 luminous red galaxy (LRG) sample and assess its detection significance. Our analysis considers both auto- and cross-correlations, using two complementary approaches to the covariance: (i) the full analytic covariance matrix applied to the uncompressed data vector, and (ii) a compressed data vector combined with a hybrid covariance matrix constructed from simulations and analytic estimates. When using the full analytic covariance matrix without corrections, we observe apparent auto-correlation signals with significance up to 4⁢𝜎. However, this excess is also consistent with a mismatch between the statistical fluctuations estimated from the simulations and those present in the real data. Our findings therefore suggest that the parity-odd signal in the current DESI DR1 LRG sample is consistent with zero. We note, however, that the low completeness of this sample may have a non-negligible impact on the detection sensitivity. Future data releases with improved completeness will be crucial for further investigation.

Hou, Jiamin [Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität; Unive↗

DOE OSTI2020

Theoretical study of various nonlinear phenomena in plasma systems and scaling of magneto-inertial-fusion targets

Plasma physics is an exciting field of study with a wide variety of nonlinear processes that come into play. Examples of such processes include the interaction of small-scale turbulence with large-scale plasma structures and the nonlinear saturation of plasma instabilities, for example those of magneto-hydrodynamical nature. During this Truman LDRD project, I studied a collection of nonlinear problems that are of interest to the field of plasma physics. This LDRD report summarizes four main research accomplishments. First, a new statistical model for describing inhomogeneous drift-wave turbulence inter- acting with zonal flows was developed. This new model includes the effects of nonlinear wave-wave collisions, which are expected to change the spectrum of the underlying DW turbulence and therefore the generation of zonal flows. Second, a new mathematical formalism was proposed to systematically apply the non- linear WKB approximation to general field theories, including those often used in fluid dynamics. This formalism represents an interesting tool for studying physical systems that show an explicit scale separation. Third, a weakly nonlinear model was developed to describe the magneto-Rayleigh-Taylor instability. This instability is of paramount importance to understand as it can reduce the performance of magnetic-inertial-fusion (MIF) platforms. The developed models captures the effects of harmonic generation and saturation of the linear growth of the instability. Finally, a framework was proposed for scaling magneto-inertial fusion (MIF) targets to larger pulsed-power drivers. From this framework, a set of scaling rules were derived that conserve the physical regimes of MIF systems when scaling up in peak current. By doing so, deleterious nonlinear processes that affect MIF performance may be kept at bay.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

mystic : software for autonomous discovery and design under uncertainty

Throughout the diverse range of science and engineering applications, there is a growing desire to develop computational methods that can reliably predict the behavior of complex systems. Specifically, there is a strategic need for tools that can robustly forecast the behavior of complex physical systems, where data may be high-dimensional, noisy, or sparse, and models of the system may be time-dependent or include uncertainty. We use mystic to build tools that leverage statistical learning, physics-informed learning, and active learning in the efficient generation of reliably predictive surrogates for complex physical systems. mystic is a robust, proven, open-source optimization and uncertainty quantification toolkit with over a decade of use in the design and optimization of neutron instrumentation, solar-powered drones, and gasguns, and in iterative tuning of models for Raman spectroscopy and elastoplastic materials strength. Recent developments have focused on automated learning of statistically robust surrogates under uncertainty, with applications in materials in extreme environments, nanostructures, materials simulations and strength models, and the failure of shielding under particle radiation. In 2020, McKerns demonstrated active learning of optimally robust surrogates with respect to new simulated data for molecular dynamics simulations of materials mixing in warm dense matter, and is currently applying active learning to the automated steering of particle accelerator beams and the optimal design and control of quantum optical sensor instrumentation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1977

Remote sensing applied to geological mapping; comparative geomorphology and identification of mineral zones of zinc and lead in the region of Vazante, MG

The author has identified the following significant results. Results showed that the black and white aerial photographs and the color infrared transparencies were efficient for mapping of three lithological units of the Paraopeba formation and for mineralized zones identification, respectively. Multispectral transparencies of I2S made it easier to separate dolomites, which were the rocks conditioning zinc and lead mineralization. Statistical analysis of morphometric indexes obtained from black and white photographs and topographic charts showed significant difference among three lithological units of Paraopeba formation which can be defined as Crest, Hilly, and Karstic reliefs.

Nascimento, F. S. D.↗

NASA NTRS1979

A secondary tracer approach to the derivation of galactic cosmic-ray source isotopic abundances

A formalism has been developed for deriving cosmic-ray source isotopic abundances from observed local abundances using a purely secondary nuclide as a tracer of spallation production during propagation. Although the formalism is based on the leaky-box model of cosmic-ray propagation, it is shown that source abundances derived by the tracer technique are reasonably independent of detailed propagation models. The tracer formalism also permits a quantitative evaluation of the effects of observational uncertainties on deduced source abundances. It is shown that statistical errors in the observed abundances and uncertainties in the spallation cross sections are at present the dominant sources of uncertainty. The latter error can be reduced with increased detector size or exposure time, while the former can be minimized by measurements of the relative production cross sections. As a specific example, the tracer technique is applied to the isotopes of sulfur and calcium, and the level of uncertainties which must be achieved to distinguish evolutionary differences between solar-system material and cosmic ray-source material are established.

Stone, E. C.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Fade margin calculation for channels impaired by Rician fading

Excess path loss due to multipath severely restricts the performance of power limited mobile networks such as those using satellite-aided links. To reduce multipath related losses, the higher elevation angle of the spacecraft can be exploited by utilizing mobile antennas which reduce the strength of the multipath reflections in favor of the line-of-sight signal. The presence of a strong and stable path in a fading link will change the envelope statistics of the received waveform from Rayleigh to a more favorable Rician distribution. It is determined that the excess path loss, or fade margin, of a Rician channel when coherent detection of binary phase shift keying (BPSK) or quaternary phase shift keying (QPSK) signals is considered. The results are presented parametrically such that they can be applied to a wide range of propagation characteristics from heavy fading to nonfading situations. Furthermore, similar results are also given for the case where only limited coverage is provided.

Davarian, F.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Phase error statistics of a phase-locked loop synchronized direct detection optical PPM communication system

Receiver timing synchronization of an optical Pulse-Position Modulation (PPM) communication system can be achieved using a phased-locked loop (PLL), provided the photodetector output is suitably processed. The magnitude of the PLL phase error is a good indicator of the timing error at the receiver decoder. The statistics of the phase error are investigated while varying several key system parameters such as PPM order, signal and background strengths, and PPL bandwidth. A practical optical communication system utilizing a laser diode transmitter and an avalanche photodiode in the receiver is described, and the sampled phase error data are presented. A linear regression analysis is applied to the data to obtain estimates of the relational constants involving the phase error variance and incident signal power.

Natarajan, Suresh↗