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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Multilevel Monte Carlo Estimators For Derivative-Free Optimization Under Uncertainty

Optimization is a key tool for scientific and engineering applications; however, in the presence of models affected by uncertainty, the optimization formulation needs to be extended to consider statistics of the quantity of interest. Optimization under uncertainty (OUU) deals with this endeavor and requires uncertainty quantification analyses at several design locations; i.e., its overall computational cost is proportional to the cost of performing a forward uncertainty analysis at each design location. An OUU workflow has two main components: an inner loop strategy for the computation of statistics of the quantity of interest, and an outer loop optimization strategy tasked with finding the optimal design, given a merit function based on the inner loop statistics. Here, in this work, we propose to alleviate the cost of the inner loop uncertainty analysis by leveraging the so-called multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method, which is able to allocate resources over multiple models with varying accuracy and cost. The resource allocation problem in MLMC is formulated by minimizing the computational cost given a target variance for the estimator. We consider MLMC estimators for statistics usually employed in OUU workflows and solve the corresponding allocation problem. For the outer loop, we consider a derivative-free optimization strategy implemented in the SNOWPAC library; our novel strategy is implemented and released in the Dakota software toolkit. We discuss several numerical test cases to showcase the features and performance of our approach with respect to its Monte Carlo single fidelity counterpart.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

NUM-DAT File Format Specification: Used in M-9 Gun Experiment Data Archiving

The M-9 Shock and Detonation Physics group executes experiments on gun and explosive platforms with large numbers of oscilloscopes used for data acquisition. The data acquisition from these oscilloscopes was automated many years ago using a custom piece of software called RunDig . The default save format from this software is a custom structure referred to as "NUM-DAT" format. This file format includes a text ".DAT" file which is a header file used to interpret the binary ".NUM" file which contains the oscilloscope data. The data save format was originally developed by John Vorthman and has been in use by M-9 personnel for over 20 years. This data format has been used for archiving data from experiments performed by M-9 personnel at TA-40, TA-39, and the TA-55 Impact Test Facility. Numerous custom analysis and visualization programs have also been developed, and continue to be used, that utilize this data format. This document describes the NUM-DAT format and provides code examples for reading the format and converting it to other formats.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessing and benchmarking the fidelity of posterior inference methods for astrophysics data analysis

In this era of large and complex astronomical survey data, interpreting, validating, and comparing inference techniques becomes increasingly difficult. This is particularly critical for emerging inference methods like Simulation-Based Inference (SBI), which offer significant speedup potential and posterior modeling flexibility, especially when deep learning is incorporated. We present a study to assess and compare the performance and uncertainty prediction capability of Bayesian inference algorithms – from traditional MCMC sampling of analytic functions to deep learning-enabled SBI. We focus on testing the capacity of hierarchical inference modeling in those scenarios. Before we extend this study to cosmology, we first use astrophysical simulation data to ensure interpretability. We demonstrate a probabilistic programming implementation of hierarchical and non-hierarchical Bayesian inference using simulations derived from the DeepBench software library, a benchmarking tool developed by our group that generates simple and controllable astrophysical objects from first principles. This study will enable astronomers and physicists to harness the inference potential of these methods with confidence.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Design and Analysis of High Heat Flux Plasma-Facing Components for NSTX Upgrade

The National Spherical Tokamak Experiment (NSTX) upgrade (NSTX-U) requirements lead to enhanced heat loads on plasma-facing components (PFCs) especially in the divertor regions, where normal heat flux density can reach up to 8 MW/m 2 . For these high heat flux (HHF) regions, the PFCs were redesigned, to use castellations which relieved the thermal stresses associated with high incident heat flux. Another design feature of HHF PFCs is the absence of front face mounting holes which create localized areas of high temperature and thermal stress concentrations. Optimized shaping of the front face of the HHF PFCs eliminates regions where the front face is perpendicular to the heat flux direction during normal helicity operation and spreads the heat load. A unique mechanism was designed to connect PFC tiles to the NSTX-U center stack casing using locking features accessible from the low heat flux regions. Isotropic graphite was selected as the HHF PFC tile material. Initial tile design parameters were accessed using analytical expressions for pulsed heat flux loading. A working prototype of the locking mechanism was created during the initial stages of the design to prove the concept performance. This article presents an overview of the divertor HHF PFC design and the results of the thermal and structural analyses performed using ANSYS software. The results of the analyses cover normal operating conditions and disruptions which impose electromagnetic (EM) loads from eddy and halo currents. The 3-D, transient, nonlinear analyses took into account the temperature-dependent properties of the materials, friction interfaces between the parts, and variable electric properties of the parts and interfaces. The results confirm that the HHF PFC tiles remain within the allowable limits for the loads defined by the NSTX-U Recovery Project. In addition, tolerance stack up analyses were performed to ensure tile performance in the worst possible assembly configuration. Finally, the design process was completed successfully, and the NSTX HHF PFC tiles are currently in the production phase.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantum Computing and Visualization: A Disruptive Technological Change Ahead

The focus of this Visualization Viewpoints article is to provide some background on quantum computing (QC), to explore ideas related to how visualization helps in understanding QC, and examine how QC might be useful for visualization with the growth and maturation of both technologies in the future. In a quickly evolving technology landscape, QC is emerging as a promising pathway to overcome the growth limits in classical computing. In some cases, QC platforms offer the potential to vastly outperform the familiar classical computer by solving problems more quickly or that may be intractable on any known classical platform. As further performance gains for classical computing platforms are limited by diminishing Moore’s Law scaling, QC platforms might be viewed as a potential successor to the current field of exascale-class platforms. Importantly, while present-day QC hardware platforms are still limited in scale, the field of quantum computing is robust and rapidly advancing in terms of hardware capabilities, software environments for developing quantum algorithms, and educational programs for training the next generation of scientists and engineers. After a brief introduction to QC concepts, the focus of this article is to explore the interplay between the fields of visualization and QC. First, visualization has played a role in QC by providing the means to show representations of the quantum state of single-qubits in superposition states and multiple-qubits in entangled states. Second, there are a number of ways in which the field of visual data exploration and analysis may potentially benefit from this disruptive new technology though there are challenges going forward.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Data analysis and modeling pipelines for controlled networked social science experiments

There is large interest in networked social science experiments for understanding human behavior at-scale. Significant effort is required to perform data analytics on experimental outputs and for computational modeling of custom experiments. Moreover, experiments and modeling are often performed in a cycle, enabling iterative experimental refinement and data modeling to uncover interesting insights and to generate/refute hypotheses about social behaviors. The current practice for social analysts is to develop tailor-made computer programs and analytical scripts for experiments and modeling. This often leads to inefficiencies and duplication of effort. In this work, we propose a pipeline framework to take a significant step towards overcoming these challenges. Our contribution is to describe the design and implementation of a software system to automate many of the steps involved in analyzing social science experimental data, building models to capture the behavior of human subjects, and providing data to test hypotheses. The proposed pipeline framework consists of formal models, formal algorithms, and theoretical models as the basis for the design and implementation. We propose a formal data model, such that if an experiment can be described in terms of this model, then our pipeline software can be used to analyze data efficiently. The merits of the proposed pipeline framework is elaborated by several case studies of networked social science experiments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Unified Language Frontend for Physic-Informed AI/ML

Artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) are becoming important tools for scientific modeling and simulation as in several other fields such as image analysis and natural language processing. ML techniques can leverage the computing power available in modern systems and reduce the human effort needed to configure experiments, interpret and visualize results, draw conclusions from huge quantities of raw data, and build surrogates for physics based models. Domain scientists in fields like fluid dynamics, microelectronics and chemistry can automate many of their most difficult and repetitive tasks or improve the design times by use of the faster ML-surrogates. However, modern ML and traditional scientific highperformance computing (HPC) tend to use completely different software ecosystems. While ML frameworks like PyTorch and TensorFlow provide Python APIs, most HPC applications and libraries are written in C++. Direct interoperability between the two languages is possible but is tedious and error-prone. In this work, we show that a compiler-based approach can bridge the gap between ML frameworks and scientific software with less developer effort and better efficiency. We use the MLIR (multi-level intermediate representation) ecosystem to compile a pre-trained convolutional neural network (CNN) in PyTorch to freestanding C++ source code in the Kokkos programming model. Kokkos is a programming model widely used in HPC to write portable, shared-memory parallel code that can natively target a variety of CPU and GPU architectures. Our compiler-generated source code can be directly integrated into any Kokkosbased application with no dependencies on Python or cross-language interfaces.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Analysis of Data Fusion Between Waveform Events and Radionuclide Detections Reported in 2021 by the International Data Centre

During this project, we assessed the percentage of events reported by the International Data Centre (IDC) that are candidates for evaluation using data fusion methods. We calculated the percentage of waveform (seismic, hydroacoustic, infrasound, SHI) events that may be associated with radionuclide (RN) detections and vice versa. For this task, data fusion means identifying RN detections that may be associated with SHI events. The task of producing a fused SHI and RN bulletin is included in the IDC operational manual. As of 2022, the production of a fused event bulletin remains incomplete, largely because methods for producing the bulletin are under development. Nonetheless, simple methods for data fusion have been developed and preliminary software tools are available at the IDC to associate SHI events and RN detections. This report is a first look at the percentage of SHI events that may be candidates for fusion with RN detections or bulletins. One year of IDC bulletin data (2021) is considered in this report. It is important to note that there were no known nuclear explosions during this time period. Hence, we expect that events during this time period would generate SHI and RN signals. If many SHI events are candidates for fusion with RN data, greater priority should be placed on establishing screening procedures before and/or during the fusion process. By contrast, if the number of candidate events is diminishingly small, then data fusion is not a driver for further development of event or detection screening at the IDC. LLNL reviewed the events reported in the Standard Event Bulletin (SEB) and determined which events are candidates for fusion with the Reviewed Radionuclide Reports (RRR). Much of the work involves establishing a metric or metrics for determining whether a Reviewed Event Bulletin (REB) event is a candidate for data fusion.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Noise-aware circuit compilations for a continuously parameterized two-qubit gateset

State-of-the-art noisy-intermediate-scale quantum processors are currently implemented across a variety of hardware platforms, each with their own distinct gatesets. As such, circuit compilation should not only be aware of but also deeply connect to the native gateset and noise properties of each. Trapped-ion processors are one such platform that provides a gateset that can be continuously parameterized across both one- and two-qubit gates. Here we use the Quantum Scientific Computing Open User Testbed to study noise-aware compilations focused on continuously parameterized two-qubit 𝑍⁢𝑍 gates (based on the Mølmer-Sørensen interaction) using $\scriptsize{SUPERSTAQ}$, a quantum software platform for hardware-aware circuit compiler optimizations. We discuss the realization of 𝑍⁢𝑍 gates with arbitrary angle on the all-to-all connected trapped-ion system. Then we discuss a variety of different compiler optimizations that innately target these 𝑍⁢𝑍 gates and their noise properties. These optimizations include moving from a restricted maximally entangling gateset to a continuously parameterized one, swap mirroring to further reduce the total entangling angle of the operations, focusing the heaviest 𝑍⁢𝑍 angle participation on the best-performing gate pairs, and circuit approximation to remove the least impactful 𝑍⁢𝑍 gates. We demonstrate these compilation approaches on the hardware with randomized quantum volume circuits, observing the potential to realize a larger quantum volume as a result of these optimizations. Using differing yet complementary analysis techniques, we observe the distinct improvements in system performance provided by these noise-aware compilations and study the role of stochastic and coherent error channels for each compilation choice.

Noise↗
DOE OSTI2024

CMLM (Co-Optimized Machine-Learned Manifolds) [SWR-23-41]

Co-optimized Machine-Learned Manifolds (CMLM) is a data-driven approach for developing reduced-order manifold models for high-dimensional chemically reacting systems. It involves a specially designed neural network, the training of which simultaneously optimizes linear combinations of species that define the manifold, nonlinear mapping to outputs of interest such as reaction rates, and (optionally) subfilter closure for large eddy simulation. This software package provides an implementation of the CMLM approach in Python using the PyTorch machine learning library. A few example cases are included, showing how the tool can be applied to different types of data from 0D and 1D reacting simulations performed using Cantera. The neural networks can be saved in a format that is readable by the Pele suite of combustion solvers for use in reacting computational fluid dynamics simulations. This software repository contains several python scripts to perform various tasks associated with the Co-optimized Machine Learned Manifolds (CMLM) model, which is described in Perry, Henry de Frahan, and Yellapantula, CNF, 2022 (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.combustflame.2022.112286). This includes not only the code that defines the CMLM model, but also scripts to generate suitable training data, scripts to pre-process the data, scripts to train the CMLM model, and scripts to plot the output, as well as various other helper files. The scripts depend on several commonly used python libraries for data analysis and chemical reaction computations. The trained models that result from this tool are designed to work with the an interface being implemented in the Pele suite of reacting flow solvers (https://github.com/AMReX-Combustion).

Perry, Bruce↗
DOE OSTI2020

Mechanistic Source Term Considerations for Advanced Non-LWRs

This report is a functional review of the radionuclide containment strategies of fluoride-salt-cooled high temperature reactor (FHR), molten salt reactor (IVISR) and high temperature gas reactor (HTGR) systems. This analysis serves as a starting point for further, more in-depth analyses geared towards identifying phenomenological gaps that still exist, preventing the creation of a mechanistic source term for these reactor types. As background information to this review, an overview of how a mechanistic source term is created and used for consequence assessment necessary for licensing is provided. How mechanistic source term is used within the LMP is also provided. Third, the characteristics of non-LWR mechanistic source terms are examined This report does not assess the viability of any software system for use with advanced reactor designs, but instead covers system function requirements. Future work within the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulations (NEAMS) program will address such gaps.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Precursor Analysis Report: Cyber Attack on Thyssenkrupp Blast Furnace 2014

The Cyber Attack on Thyssenkrupp Blast Furnace 2014 Precursor Analysis Report leverages publicly available information about the Thyssenkrupp Steel Mill cyber attack and catalogs anomalous observables for each technique employed in the attack. This analysis is based upon the methodology of the Cybersecurity for the Operational Technology Environment (CyOTE) program. In December 2014, the German Government’s Federal Office for Information Security (BSI) released a report detailing a cyber attack on a German steel mill that occurred earlier that year, though exact dates and details of the attack were not revealed. While the report did not specify the name of the company, multiple sources identified the victim as one of Europe’s largest steel manufacturers, Thyssenkrupp AG. Further, Thyssenkrupp announced on 16 May of that year that Europe’s largest blast furnace, “Schwelgern 2,” located at its facility in Duisburg, Germany, would be offline for several weeks for repairs and upgrades, suggesting Schwelgern 2 was likely the target of the attack. The attack began in early 2014, when adversaries infiltrated the victim steel mill’s Information Technology (IT) network via a spearphishing campaign, then worked their way into the Operational Technology (OT) environment, where they executed software that caused denial of service, denial of control, and eventually a loss of control. This led to the blast furnace shutting down without proper safety procedures, resulting in catastrophic physical damage. No lives were lost in the incident, but ThyssenKrupp suffered $4 million in damage to the blast furnace and an additional $6 million in lost revenue. The adversaries required specialized knowledge and expertise in steel production, which enabled them to compromise a variety of internal systems and components across both IT and OT networks. The attack also demonstrated detailed knowledge of the industrial control systems (ICS) and production processes being used. This combination resulted in one of the earliest known publicly reported cybersecurity incidents resulting in physical damage to ICS equipment. Researchers and analysts identified 19 unique techniques (used in a sequence of 20 steps) utilized during the attack with a total of 454 observables using MITRE ATT&CK® for Industrial Control Systems. The CyOTE program assesses observables accompanying techniques used prior to the triggering event to identify opportunities to detect malicious activity. If observables accompanying the attack techniques are perceived and investigated prior to the triggering event, earlier comprehension of malicious activity can take place. Fifteen of the identified techniques used during the Thyssenkrupp cyber attack were precursors to the triggering event. Analysis identified 369 observables associated with these precursor techniques, 316 of which were assessed to have an increased likelihood of being perceived in the 120 days preceding the triggering event. The response and comprehension time could have been reduced if the observables had been identified earlier. The information gathered in this report contributes to a library of observables tied to a repository of artifacts, data sources, and technique detection references for practitioners and developers to support the comprehension of indicators of attack. Asset owners and operators can use these products if they experience similar observables or to prepare for comparable scenarios.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2020

LA17-V-InverseRadTransportProblem-PD2Kb. Final Project Report

In the inverse radiation transport problem, a radiation signal emanating from an unknown object is used to reconstruct geometric and material parameters of the object , e.g., the mass of special nuclear material (SNM), the isotopic composition of the SNM (e.g., the enrichment of 235U), the thickness of shielding, etc. The inverse radiation transport problem is one of the most fundamental and important in the emergency response mission, and has been addressed in previous NA-22 and NA-42/84 investments by using derivative-free optimization methods. Our project was aimed at (i) consolidating previous work by applying polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) for reducing significantly the number of forward model simulations required by derivative-free optimization methods; (ii) developing a general-purpose framework and stand-alone software for solving the inverse radiation transport problem by applying a new “predictive modeling” methodology (predictive modeling of coupled multi-physics systems, PM_CMPS) which enables the fusing of experimental and computational information; and (iii) developing several benchmarks (for unscattered gamma rays) for demonstrating the quantification of non-Gaussian features (e.g., skewness and kurtosis, which characterize asymmetries and long tails) of response distributions by deterministically and efficiently propagating parameter uncertainties (covariances and higher-order moments, where available) using high-order sensitivities computed by the recently developed comprehensive adjoint sensitivity analysis methodology (C-ASAM). With regard to (i), application of PCE, the most significant accomplishment of this project was an implementation of PCE into INVERSE that significantly reduced computation time for the DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) and Differential Evolution (DE) methods. For inverse transport problems with measurements of neutron leakage, neutron multiplication, and neutron-induced gamma-rays, the solution times for the DREAM and DE methods were reduced by factors of 30-300, reducing run times from hours to minutes while maintaining the same accuracy as the standard (non-PCE) DREAM and DE. Speedups were further improved by exploring sparse grid quadrature sets using the Toolkit for Adaptive Stochastic Modeling and Non-Intrusive ApproximatioN (Tasmanian) toolset. An initial exploration of sparse grids indicated that further speedups factors of 5-10 are obtainable. The implementation of PCE in INVERSE is not in a form that users can easily access. With regard to (ii), solving the inverse problem using a predictive modeling paradigm, the most significant accomplishment of this project were the derivation and implementation of adjoint-based second derivatives in neutron and photon transport theory. There are two codes that compute these derivatives. SENSPG computes them for uncollided gamma rays and SENSMG computes them for neutron leakage. SENSMG is open-source code available on github. Other significant accomplishments included a stand-alone code, MULTI-PRED, that implements the predictive modeling paradigm, along with a detailed manual. The code was implemented in the existing INVERSE code for inverse problems, but a head-to-head comparison of inverse methods was not achieved. We also derived and implemented the capability to compute sensitivities for multiplicity measurements into the SENSMG code, and this capability was used in a data assimilation application, but it was not used for solving inverse problems. With regard to (iii), developing benchmarks to demonstrate the importance of high-order sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, the most significant accomplishment of this project were two test problems that showed how important second-order sensitivities are.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

NRWAL (NLR formerly known as NREL Wind Analysis Library) [SWR-21-26]

NRWAL (NLR (National Laboratory of the Rockies) formerly known as NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory) Wind Analysis Library: A library of offshore wind cost equations (plus new energy technologies like marine hydro!) Easy equation manipulation without editing source code Full continental-scale integration with the NREL Renewable Energy Potential Model (reV) https://nrel.github.io/reV/ Ready-to-use configs for basic users Dynamic python tools for intuitive equation handling One seriously badass sea unicorn To get started with NRWAL, check out the NRWAL Config documentation or the NRWAL example notebook. You can also launch the notebook in an interactive jupyter shell right in your browser without any downloads or software using binder. Ready to build a model with NRWAL but don't want to contribute to the library? No problem! Check out the example getting started project here. Here is the important stuff: The NRWAL Equation Library. Default NRWAL Configs

Nunemaker, Jacob↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development of Integrated Thermal Fluids Modeling Capability for MSRs

The DOE Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program supports a full range of computational thermal fluids analysis capabilities and code developments for a broad class of light-water and advanced reactor concepts. The research and development approach under thermal fluids technical area synergistically combines three length and time scales in a hierarchal multi-scale approach. To demonstrate the feasibility and capabilities of a multi-scale thermal fluids capability using these codes, a key joint effort has been pursued to develop an integrated system-and engineering-scale thermal fluids analysis capability with the MOOSE-based codes, through integration of SAM and Pronghorn, both based on the MOOSE framework. This report summarizes the progress in developing an integrated system- and engineering-scale thermal fluids analysis capability based on SAM and Pronghorn for molten salt reactors (MSRs), which gained significant interest in recently years. Two coupling approaches were studied, i.e. separate domain or domain-segregated coupling approach and the domain-overlapping approach. A series of coupled multi-physics models have been developed for a common reference molten salt fast reactor (MSFR) concept, ranging from standalone SAM system model to integrated SAM-Pronghorn-Griffin models. Both the steady state and the transient simulations are performed to the state-of-the-art simulation capabilities of NEAMS software suite in MSFR system applications. This report also covers further development and testing of the gas transport model in SAM for MSR modeling support. The presence of noncondensable gas in MSR systems would have strong impacts on fission gas removal and transport of noble metals throughout the system. Fission products removed through the off-gas system can also impact reactivity and can act as an additional point of heat removal. To ensure that the gas transport model is adequately tested, the supported modeling capabilities and features of SAM were identified, and a suite of tests were developed to test the model for each identified feature. Validation and UQ testing were also performed for the model and demonstrated that the buoyancy term, which was originally developed using non-salt/helium gas experimental data, can capture the experimental gas bubble velocity and diameter to within experimental and code uncertainty. An existing MSRE model was also modified in this work to include the gas transport model and to demonstrate the gas model behavior for realistic conditions of interest.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Effect of Spectral Resolution of Light Sources on Photopic and a-opic Quantities

There is a growing interest in including light source spectrum in advanced lighting software tools and simulations. Given that traditional lighting software tools have been used primarily for calculating photometric quantities, their simplifying assumptions may not be suitable for calculating other a-opic quantities. Commonly used simulation tools use three values to represent the three primary colors (red, green, and blue), but others have expanded the number of bands (i.e., the spectral resolution) to 9, 27, or 81 in an attempt to more accurately represent variations in light source spectrum and downstream spectrally-derived quantities. It remains unclear, however, to what extent spectral resolution affects calculated quantities. To address this gap, a numerical analysis was completed using a large spectral power distribution database (n = 1,302 light sources). Calculated illuminance, a-opic irradiance, luminous efficacy of radiation (LER), melanopic efficacy of radiation (MER), and melanopic to photopic (M/P) ratio were compared for spectral resolutions of 3 and 9 bands compared to a baseline of 81 bands. Across all examined lighting quantities, considerable errors—a mean absolute percent error of 18.4%—were found when using 3 band calculations. These were reduced to 4% for 9 band calculations. The errors varied by metric and light source type. The results suggest that the use of 9 bands can more accurately characterize performance of different light source types across a range of metrics compared to using 3 bands.

Abboushi, Belal K.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Lowering post‐construction yield assessment uncertainty through better wind plant power curves

Abstract Many operational analyses of wind power plants require a statistical relationship, which can be called the wind plant power curve, to be developed between wind plant energy production and concurrent atmospheric variables. Currently, a univariate linear regression at monthly resolution is the industry standard for post‐construction yield assessments. Here, we evaluate the benefits in augmenting this conventional approach by testing alternative regressions performed with multiple inputs, at a finer time resolution, and using nonlinear machine‐learning algorithms. We utilize the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's open‐source software package OpenOA to assess wind plant power curves for 10 wind plants. When a univariate generalized additive model at daily or hourly resolution is used, regression uncertainty is reduced, in absolute terms, by up to 1.0 % and 1.2 % (corresponding to a −59 % and −80 % relative change), respectively, compared to a univariate linear regression at monthly resolution; also, a more accurate assessment of the mean long‐term wind plant production is achieved. Additional input variables also reduce the regression uncertainty: when temperature is added as an input to the conventional monthly linear regression, the operational analysis uncertainty connected to regression is reduced, in absolute terms, by up to 0.5 % (−43 % relative change) for wind power plants with strong seasonal variability. Adding input variables to the machine‐learning model at daily resolution can further reduce regression uncertainty, with up to a −10 % relative change. Based on these results, we conclude that a multivariate nonlinear regression at daily or hourly resolution should be recommended for assessing wind plant power curves.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Asynchronous GPU-based DEM solver embedded in commercial CFD software with polyhedral mesh support

A novel graphical processing unit-based discrete element method solver is introduced to improve stability, performance, and provide seamless integration into commercial or open-source computational fluid dynamics software. A key innovation is eliminating a need for network communication between solvers, which was previously required for cross-platform coupling. This is accomplished by a direct coupling method that employs dynamic-linked libraries. Furthermore, the solver optimizes memory usage by streamlining the particle-cell search algorithm by eliminating the cells' searching grid. This ensures the solver is compatible with a wide range of mesh types, providing high geometric flexibility. The approach simplifies the simulation process by directly incorporating computational fluid dynamics mesh information into the discrete element method solver. The performance analysis indicates about sixteen times boost in computational speed compared to benchmark central processing unit-based solvers. Finally, the solver's compatibility with polyhedral meshes, a vital advantage for complex geometries, is tested against a referenced study regarding the simulation of an immersed-tube fluidized bed.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗