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At least 1,783 records · Page 99
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Emergency department visits in California associated with wildfire PM 2.5 : differing risk across individuals and communities

The threats to human health from wildfires and wildfire smoke (WFS) in the United States (US) are increasing due to continued climate change. A growing body of literature has documented important adverse health effects of WFS exposure, but there is insufficient evidence regarding how risk related to WFS exposure varies across individual or community level characteristics. To address this evidence gap, we utilized a large nationwide database of healthcare utilization claims for emergency department (ED) visits in California across multiple wildfire seasons (May through November, 2012–2019) and quantified the health impacts of fine particulate matter <2.5 μm (PM 2.5 ) air pollution attributable to WFS, overall and among subgroups of the population. We aggregated daily counts of ED visits to the level of the Zip Code Tabulation Area (ZCTA) and used a time-stratified case-crossover design and distributed lag non-linear models to estimate the association between WFS and relative risk of ED visits. We further assessed how the association with WFS varied across subgroups defined by age, race, social vulnerability, and residential air conditioning (AC) prevalence. Over a 7 day period, PM 2.5 from WFS was associated with elevated risk of ED visits for all causes (1.04% (0.32%, 1.71%)), non-accidental causes (2.93% (2.16%, 3.70%)), and respiratory disease (15.17% (12.86%, 17.52%)), but not with ED visits for cardiovascular diseases (1.06% (–1.88%, 4.08%)). Analysis across subgroups revealed potential differences in susceptibility by age, race, and AC prevalence, but not across subgroups defined by ZCTA-level Social Vulnerability Index scores. These results suggest that PM 2.5 from WFS is associated with higher rates of all cause, non-accidental, and respiratory ED visits with important heterogeneity across certain subgroups. Notably, lower availability of residential AC was associated with higher health risks related to wildfire activity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Human NCR3 gene variants rs2736191 and rs11575837 alter longitudinal risk for development of pediatric malaria episodes and severe malarial anemia

Background: Plasmodium falciparum malaria is a leading cause of pediatric morbidity and mortality in holoendemic transmission areas. Severe malarial anemia [SMA, hemoglobin (Hb) < 5.0 g/dL in children] is the most common clinical manifestation of severe malaria in such regions. Although innate immune response genes are known to influence the development of SMA, the role of natural killer (NK) cells in malaria pathogenesis remains largely undefined. As such, we examined the impact of genetic variation in the gene encoding a primary NK cell receptor, natural cytotoxicity-triggering receptor 3 (NCR3), on the occurrence of malaria and SMA episodes over time. Methods: Susceptibility to malaria, SMA, and all-cause mortality was determined in carriers of NCR3 genetic variants (i.e., rs2736191:C > G and rs11575837:C > T) and their haplotypes. The prospective observational study was conducted over a 36 mos. follow-up period in a cohort of children (n = 1,515, aged 1.9–40 mos.) residing in a holoendemic P. falciparum transmission region, Siaya, Kenya. Results: Poisson regression modeling, controlling for anemia-promoting covariates, revealed a significantly increased risk of malaria in carriers of the homozygous mutant allele genotype (TT) for rs11575837 after multiple test correction [Incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 1.540, 95% CI = 1.114–2.129, P = 0.009]. Increased risk of SMA was observed for rs2736191 in children who inherited the CG genotype (IRR = 1.269, 95% CI = 1.009–1.597, P = 0.041) and in the additive model (presence of 1 or 2 copies) (IRR = 1.198, 95% CI = 1.030–1.393, P = 0.019), but was not significant after multiple test correction. Modeling of the haplotypes revealed that the CC haplotype had a significant additive effect for protection against SMA (i.e., reduced risk for development of SMA) after multiple test correction (IRR = 0.823, 95% CI = 0.711–0.952, P = 0.009). Although increased susceptibility to SMA was present in carriers of the GC haplotype (IRR = 1.276, 95% CI = 1.030–1.581, P = 0.026) with an additive effect (IRR = 1.182, 95% CI = 1.018–1.372, P = 0.029), the results did not remain significant after multiple test correction. None of the NCR3 genotypes or haplotypes were associated with all-cause mortality. Conclusions: Variation in NCR3 alters susceptibility to malaria and SMA during the acquisition of naturally-acquired malarial immunity. These results highlight the importance of NK cells in the innate immune response to malaria.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Integrating Intelligent Hydro-informatics into an effective Early Warning System for risk-informed urban flood management

The urban drainage system constantly facing flooding issues in coastal and urban areas. Robust and accurate urban flood management, particularly considering fast-moving compound floods, is crucial to minimize the impact of flood disasters in coastal cities. Till now, Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) lacks an effective means of urban flood management because of flood risk communication among residents. Existing flood risk communication tools rely on post-disaster flood model outcomes and data. Therefore, this research proposes a real-time Early Urban Flooding Warning System (EUFWS) integrated with a user-friendly web and app interface. The backbone of this system consists of flood models developed using machine learning (ML) algorithms, combined with big data and Web-GIS visualization, with ML serving as the core for constructing the EUFWS. EUFWS offer several key advantages: they are available at all times, accessible from anywhere, and provide a real-time, multi-user working platform. Additionally, the system is flexible, allowing for the easy addition of components and services and scalable, adjusting to workload demands. EUFWS have been successfully deployed in Thu Duc City, Vietnam, as a case study and are operating effectively. EUFWS have been successfully deployed in Thu Duc City, Vietnam, as a case study and are operating effectively. Research results indicate that EUFWS supported decision-makers to be effectively risk informed and make intelligent decisions during urban flood emergencies. Finally, this underscores the significant potential of integrating ML and information technology to enhance the management of smart urban drainage systems in flood-prone cities worldwide.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2011

Dynamic Modeling and Soil Mechanics for Path Planning of the Mars Exploration Rovers

To help minimize risk of high sinkage and slippage during drives and to better understand soil properties and rover terramechanics from drive data, a multidisciplinary team was formed under the Mars Exploration Rover project to develop and utilize dynamic computer-based models for rover drives over realistic terrains. The resulting system, named ARTEMIS (Adams-based Rover Terramechanics and Mobility Interaction System), consists of the dynamic model, a library of terramechanics subroutines, and the high-resolution digital elevation maps of the Mars surface. A 200-element model of the rovers was developed and validated for drop tests before launch, using Adams dynamic modeling software. The external library was built in Fortran and called by Adams to model the wheel-soil interactions include the rut-formation effect of deformable soils, lateral and longitudinal forces, bull-dozing effects, and applied wheel torque. The paper presents the details and implementation of the system. To validate the developed system, one study case is presented from a realistic drive on Mars of the Opportunity rover. The simulation results match well from the measurement of on-board telemetry data. In its final form, ARTEMIS will be used in a predictive manner to assess terrain navigability and will become part of the overall effort in path planning and navigation for both Martian and lunar rovers.

rover↗
DOE OSTI2024

Component Failure R&D

This presentation is to establish a scientific basis for risk and reliability analysis through integrated work with data collection, model development, and stakeholder engagement.

availability↗
NASA NTRS2010

Risk Presentation Using the Three Dimensions of Likelihood, Severity, and Level of Control

Traditional hazard analysis techniques utilize a two-dimensional representation of the results determined by relative likelihood and severity of the residual risk. These matrices present a quick-look at the Likelihood (Y-axis) and Severity (X-axis) of the probable outcome of a hazardous event. A three-dimensional method, described herein, utilizes the traditional X and Y axes, while adding a new, third dimension, shown as the Z-axis, and referred to as the Level of Control. The elements of the Z-axis are modifications of the Hazard Elimination and Control steps (also known as the Hazard Reduction Precedence Sequence). These steps are: 1. Eliminate risk through design. 2. Substitute less risky materials for more hazardous materials. 3. Install safety devices. 4. Install caution and warning devices. 5. Develop administrative controls (to include special procedures and training.) 6. Provide protective clothing and equipment. When added to the two-dimensional models, the level of control adds a visual representation of the risk associated with the hazardous condition, creating a tall-pole for the leastwell-controlled failure while establishing the relative likelihood and severity of all causes and effects for an identified hazard. Computer modeling of the analytical results, using spreadsheets and three-dimensional charting gives a visual confirmation of the relationship between causes and their controls.

Watson, Clifford↗
NASA NTRS2019

Heliocentric Escape and Lunar Impact from Near Rectilinear Halo Orbits

Spacecraft departing from the Gateway in a Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit (NRHO) experience gravitational forces from the Moon, the Earth, and the Sun, all of which can be simultaneously significant. These complex dynamics influence the post-separation risk of recontact with the Gateway and the eventual destinations of the departing spacecraft. The current investigation examines the flow of objects leaving NRHOs in the Bicircular Restricted Four-Body Problem, and results are applied to heliocentric escape and lunar impact trajectories in a higher-fidelity ephemeris model. Separation maneuver magnitude, direction, and location are correlated with risk of recontact with the Gateway and successful departure to various destinations.

Davis, Diane C.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Updates to PATO’s Thermo-Mechanical Model

The solid mechanics module within the Porous material Analysis Toolbox (PATO) material response code was updated to model the stress contribution from both internal pressure and pyrolysis shrinkage as function of material’s decomposition. Incorporating these physical phenomena, alongside the previously included temperature dependent mechanical properties, thermal expansion, and aerodynamic loads, allows for a more accurate thermo-mechanical behavior modeling of Thermal Protection System (TPS) materials, which is critical to assess spallation risks during atmospheric entry. This poster outlines the workflow for obtaining the necessary PATO inputs, derived from dilatometry experiments, which are used to model the stress field in TPS materials due to thermal expansion and pyrolysis shrinkage. Furthermore, to analyze the relevance of the stress contribution from the internal pressure, a study was conducted using TACOT with different permeability values.

TPS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Steam generator model design parameter sensitivity study for small modular reactor system

Here, this study focuses on design parameter sensitivity studies pertaining to several Once-Through Steam Generator (OTSG) model cases both with and without a riser using python and advanced risk assessment and optimization tool, i.e. Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) developed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), to support a Small Modular Reactor (SMR) system. The presented Steam Generator (SG) python-based model is a mathematical representation of a steam-generating unit for a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR)-type SMR system, including fluid flow and heat transfer equations, models, and correlations. Design studies involve changing the model’s input design parameters (e.g., temperature, pressure, mass flow rate) to observe the resulting effects on the output of the system, such as the Heat Transfer Coefficient (HTC), Reynolds number, Nusselt number, and heat transfer performance. Sensitivity studies analyze the degree to which system output and/or desired parameters (e.g., HTC or heat transfer performance) are sensitive to changes in the input parameters. By using RAVEN, detailed design parametric sensitivity studies. Six input parameters—namely, the pressure, temperature, and mass flow rate for the inlet of the primary-side (hot fluid) and secondary-side (cold fluid) of the SG—were randomly perturbed via RAVEN’s Monte Carlo Sampler module, using uniform distributions (i.e., ±1%, ±5% and ±10 % relative changes) for 600 samples. The analysis results give valuable insights into SG system performance, and provide justification for further research and development such as optimized sensor placement, design verification, validation, and optimization.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
NASA NTRS2011

Risk Assessment Using the Three Dimensions of Probability (Likelihood), Severity, and Level of Control

Traditional hazard analysis techniques utilize a two-dimensional representation of the results determined by relative likelihood and severity of the residual risk. These matrices present a quick-look at the Likelihood (Y-axis) and Severity (X-axis) of the probable outcome of a hazardous event. A three-dimensional method, described herein, utilizes the traditional X and Y axes, while adding a new, third dimension, shown as the Z-axis, and referred to as the Level of Control. The elements of the Z-axis are modifications of the Hazard Elimination and Control steps (also known as the Hazard Reduction Precedence Sequence). These steps are: 1. Eliminate risk through design. 2. Substitute less risky materials for more hazardous materials. 3. Install safety devices. 4. Install caution and warning devices. 5. Develop administrative controls (to include special procedures and training.) 6. Provide protective clothing and equipment. When added to the two-dimensional models, the level of control adds a visual representation of the risk associated with the hazardous condition, creating a tall-pole for the least-well-controlled failure while establishing the relative likelihood and severity of all causes and effects for an identified hazard. Computer modeling of the analytical results, using spreadsheets and three-dimensional charting gives a visual confirmation of the relationship between causes and their controls.

Watson, Clifford C.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Dynamic Modeling and Soil Mechanics for Path Planning of the Mars Exploration Rovers

To help minimize risk of high sinkage and slippage during drives and to better understand soil properties and rover terramechanics from drive data, a multidisciplinary team was formed under the Mars Exploration Rover (MER) project to develop and utilize dynamic computer-based models for rover drives over realistic terrains. The resulting tool, named ARTEMIS (Adams-based Rover Terramechanics and Mobility Interaction Simulator), consists of the dynamic model, a library of terramechanics subroutines, and the high-resolution digital elevation maps of the Mars surface. A 200-element model of the rovers was developed and validated for drop tests before launch, using MSC-Adams dynamic modeling software. Newly modeled terrain-rover interactions include the rut-formation effect of deformable soils, using the classical Bekker-Wong implementation of compaction resistances and bull-dozing effects. The paper presents the details and implementation of the model with two case studies based on actual MER telemetry data. In its final form, ARTEMIS will be used in a predictive manner to assess terrain navigability and will become part of the overall effort in path planning and navigation for both Martian and lunar rovers.

terramechanics↗
NASA NTRS1999

Modeling Calcium Loss from Bones During Space Flight

Calcium loss from bones during space flight creates a risk for astronauts who travel into space, and may prohibit space flights to other planets. The problem of calcium loss during space flight has been studied using animal models, bed rest (as a ground-based model), and humans in-flight. In-flight studies have typically documented bone loss by comparing bone mass before and after flight. To identify changes in metabolism leading to bone loss, we have performed kinetic studies using stable isotopes of calcium. Oral (Ca-43) and intravenous (Ca-46) tracers were administered to subjects (n=3), three-times before flight, once in-flight (after 110 days), and three times post-flight (on landing day, and 9 days and 3 months after flight). Samples of blood, saliva, urine, and feces were collected for up to 5 days after isotope administration, and were analyzed for tracer enrichment. Tracer data in tissues were analyzed using a compartmental model for calcium metabolism and the WinSAAM software. The model was used to: account for carryover of tracer between studies, fit data for all studies using the minimal number of changes between studies, and calculate calcium absorption, excretion, bone calcium deposition and bone calcium resorption. Results showed that fractional absorption decreased by 50% during flight and that bone resorption and urinary excretion increased by 50%. Results were supported by changes in biochemical markers of bone metabolism. Inflight bone loss of approximately 250 mg Ca/d resulted from decreased calcium absorption combined with increased bone resorption and excretion. Further studies will assess the time course of these changes during flight, and the effectiveness of countermeasures to mitigate flight-induced bone loss. The overall goal is to enable human travel beyond low-Earth orbit, and to allow for better understanding and treatment of bone diseases on Earth.

Wastney, Meryl E.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Space Radiation Risk Assessment for Future Lunar Missions

For lunar exploration mission design, radiation risk assessments require the understanding of future space radiation environments in support of resource management decisions, operational planning, and a go/no-go decision. The future GCR flux was estimated as a function of interplanetary deceleration potential, which was coupled with the estimated neutron monitor rate from the Climax monitor using a statistical model. A probability distribution function for solar particle event (SPE) occurrence was formed from proton fluence measurements of SPEs occurred during the past 5 solar cycles (19-23). Large proton SPEs identified from impulsive nitrate enhancements in polar ice for which the fluences are greater than 2 10(exp 9) protons/sq cm for energies greater than 30 MeV, were also combined to extend the probability calculation for high level of proton fluences. The probability with which any given proton fluence level of a SPE will be exceeded during a space mission of defined duration was then calculated. Analytic energy spectra of SPEs at different ranks of the integral fluences were constructed over broad energy ranges extending out to GeV, and representative exposure levels were analyzed at those fluences. For the development of an integrated strategy for radiation protection on lunar exploration missions, effective doses at various points inside a spacecraft were calculated with detailed geometry models representing proposed transfer vehicle and habitat concepts. Preliminary radiation risk assessments from SPE and GCR were compared for various configuration concepts of radiation shelter in exploratory-class spacecrafts.

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Probability of failure and risk assessment of propulsion structural components

The probabilistic structural analysis method (PSAM) was developed to analyze the effects of fluctuating loads, variable material properties, and uncertain analytical models especially for high performance structures such as the Space Shuttle Main Engine turbopump blades. Risk is calculated after expensive service experience. However, probabilistic structural analysis provides a rational alternative method to quantify uncertainties in the structural performance and durability. NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress) was developed as a probabilistic structural analysis computer code which integrates finite element methods and reliability algorithms, capable to predicting the probability distributions of structural response variables such as stress, displacement, natural frequencies, and buckling loads. This computer code is detailed.

Shiao, Michael C.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Local ancestry at APOE modifies Alzheimer's disease risk in Caribbean Hispanics

Abstract Introduction Although the relationship between APOE and Alzheimer's disease (AD) is well established in populations of European descent, the effects of APOE and ancestry on AD risk in diverse populations is not well understood. Methods Logistic mixed model regression and survival analyses were performed in a sample of 3067 Caribbean Hispanics and 3028 individuals of European descent to assess the effects of APOE genotype, local ancestry, and genome‐wide ancestry on AD risk and age at onset. Results Among the Caribbean Hispanics, individuals with African‐derived ancestry at APOE had 39% lower odds of AD than individuals with European‐derived APOE , after adjusting for APOE genotype, age, and genome‐wide ancestry. While APOE E2 and E4 effects on AD risk and age at onset were significant in the Caribbean Hispanics, they were substantially attenuated compared with those in European ancestry individuals. Discussion These results suggest that additional genetic variation in the APOE region influences AD risk beyond APOE E2/E3/E4.

Blue, Elizabeth E.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Adams-Based Rover Terramechanics and Mobility Simulator - ARTEMIS

The Mars Exploration Rovers (MERs), Spirit and Opportunity, far exceeded their original drive distance expectations and have traveled, at the time of this reporting, a combined 29 kilometers across the surface of Mars. The Rover Sequencing and Visualization Program (RSVP), the current program used to plan drives for MERs, is only a kinematic simulator of rover movement. Therefore, rover response to various terrains and soil types cannot be modeled. Although sandbox experiments attempt to model rover-terrain interaction, these experiments are time-intensive and costly, and they cannot be used within the tactical timeline of rover driving. Imaging techniques and hazard avoidance features on MER help to prevent the rover from traveling over dangerous terrains, but mobility issues have shown that these methods are not always sufficient. ARTEMIS, a dynamic modeling tool for MER, allows planned drives to be simulated before commands are sent to the rover. The deformable soils component of this model allows rover-terrain interactions to be simulated to determine if a particular drive path would take the rover over terrain that would induce hazardous levels of slip or sink. When used in the rover drive planning process, dynamic modeling reduces the likelihood of future mobility issues because high-risk areas could be identified before drive commands are sent to the rover, and drives planned over these areas could be rerouted. The ARTEMIS software consists of several components. These include a preprocessor, Digital Elevation Models (DEMs), Adams rover model, wheel and soil parameter files, MSC Adams GUI (commercial), MSC Adams dynamics solver (commercial), terramechanics subroutines (FORTRAN), a contact detection engine, a soil modification engine, and output DEMs of deformed soil. The preprocessor is used to define the terrain (from a DEM) and define the soil parameters for the terrain file. The Adams rover model is placed in this terrain. Wheel and soil parameter files can be altered in the respective text files. The rover model and terrain are viewed in Adams View, the GUI for ARTEMIS. The Adams dynamics solver calls terramechanics subroutines in FORTRAN containing the Bekker-Wong equations.

Trease, Brian P.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Demand response event simulator and risk-aware bidding tool for industrial customers

Incentive Based Demand Response (IBDR) program participation delivers financial benefits to the consumers and resiliency benefits to the electricity grid. Effectively participating in these programs as an industrial consumer requires bidding strategies that balance financial risk with operational constraints. Existing bidding tools tend not to fully incorporate stochastic IBDR event modeling, program specific baseline and payment/penalty calculations, or demand reduction process control schemes that account for the cascading impacts of shutdown in complex facilities. Here, this work presents an IBDR event simulator and risk-aware bidding framework tool integrating three key components: a flexible, parameterized demand response event generator that rigorously accounts for program structures and stochasticity, a demand response operational simulation model that generates explicit control strategies for load reduction, and a Monte Carlo simulator to evaluate financial risk for varied capacity bids. A case study at a wastewater treatment plant participating in PG&E's Capacity Bidding Program demonstrates the framework's utility. In the peak capacity price month of August, optimal bidding by the wastewater treatment plant nets a mean IBDR benefit of $101,000 (67% of the August electricity bill) with 0.4% probability of a financial loss. This framework enables industrial operators to make informed bidding decisions, negotiate better program terms with demand response load aggregators, and analyze energy flexibility investments at their facilities. Ultimately, this work reduces participation barriers in IBDR programs and supports the broader goal of enhancing grid reliability and renewable energy integration.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Developing High-Throughput Organ-on-a-Chip Models to Investigate the Effects of Ionizing Radiation on the Central Nervous System

One of the main health risks in human space exploration is central nervous system (CNS) damage by ionizing radiation due to exposure to the galactic cosmic rays (GCRs). In animal models, irradiation with simulated GCRs or their components has been shown to cause neuronal damage and neuroinflammation associated with cognitive and behavioral dysfunction. In general, the extent of CNS damage is partially regulated by the blood-brain barrier (BBB), which enables immune cells to enter the CNS. The main cellular regulators of BBB permeability are astrocytes, which also modulate neuronal death, immune responses and oxidative stress, and thus could serve as a robust CNS-specific target for countermeasure development. However, studies on BBB permeability and astrocyte functions in regulating CNS responses to ionizing radiation have been limited, especially in human tissue/organ analogs. Therefore, we established a high-throughput 3D organ-on-a-chip system to study human CNS and BBB impairments in response to ionizing radiation, based on commercially available OrganoPlates (Mimetas, Inc.) seeded with primary or induced pluripotent stem cell-derived human cells. We investigated both immediate and delayed CNS responses to major GCR components: 0.15-0.5 Gy 250MeV/n 4-He, and 0.3-0.8 Gy 600 MeV/n 56-Fe; as well as to 0.5-1 Gy X-rays. We observed ionizing radiation-mediated increases in BBB permeability that was exacerbated by astrocyte presence and accompanied by morphological changes in endothelial cells and tight junctions, altered cytokine profile including TNFa upregulation, and increased oxidative stress. We also quantified irradiation-mediated changes in astrocyte activation and neuronal functions, revealing major astrocyte damage mediated by 600MeV/n 56-Fe particles. Thus, we demonstrate that deep space radiation may contribute to CNS damage by disrupting both astrocyte and endothelial cell components of the blood-brain barrier. Our next steps include mapping and validating the transcriptomic changes induced by simulated GCRs and their components in human CNS models. Ultimately, we aim to uncover potential novel targets for countermeasure developments to mitigate CNS damage in long duration spaceflight.

Radiation↗