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DOE OSTI2022

Adaptive experimental design for multi-fidelity surrogate modeling of multi-disciplinary systems

We present an adaptive algorithm for constructing surrogate models of multi-disciplinary systems composed of a set of coupled components. With this goal we introduce “coupling” variables with a priori unknown distributions that allow surrogates of each component to be built independently. Once built, the surrogates of the components are combined to form an integrated-surrogate that can be used to predict system-level quantities of interest at a fraction of the cost of the original model. The error in the integrated-surrogate is greedily minimized using an experimental design procedure that allocates the amount of training data, used to construct each component-surrogate, based on the contribution of those surrogates to the error of the integrated-surrogate. Here, the multi-fidelity procedure presented is a generalization of multi-index stochastic collocation that can leverage ensembles of models of varying cost and accuracy, for one or more components, to reduce the computational cost of constructing the integrated-surrogate. Extensive numerical results demonstrate that, for a fixed computational budget, our algorithm is able to produce surrogates that are orders of magnitude more accurate than methods that treat the integrated system as a black-box.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Spillway preheating

In traditional models only an order one fraction of energy is transferred from the inflaton to radiation through nonperturbative resonance production in preheating immediately after inflation, due to backreaction effects. We propose a particle production mechanism that could improve the depletion of the inflaton energy density by up to four orders of magnitude. The improvement comes from the fast perturbative decays of resonantly produced daughter particles. They act as a “spillway” to drain these daughter particles, reducing their backreaction on the inflaton and keeping the resonant production effective for a longer period. Thus we dub the scenario “spillway preheating”. We also show that the fraction of energy density remaining in the inflaton has a simple inverse power-law scaling in the scenario. In general, spillway preheating is a much more efficient energy dissipation mechanism, which may have other applications in model building for particle physics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Statistical analysis of non-Maxwellian electron distribution functions measured with angularly resolved Thomson scattering

Angularly resolved Thomson scattering is a novel extension of Thomson scattering, enabling the measurement of the electron velocity distribution function over many orders of magnitude. Here, details of the theoretical basis of the technique and the instrument designed for this measurement are described. Angularly resolved Thomson-scattering data from several experiments are shown with descriptions of the corresponding distribution functions. A reduced model describing the distribution function is given and used to perform a Monte Carlo analysis of the uncertainty in the measurements. The electron density and temperature were determined to a precision of 12% and 21%, respectively, on average, while all other parameters defining the distribution function were generally determined to better than 20%. It was found that these uncertainties were primarily due to limited signal to noise and instrumental effects. Furthermore, measurements with this level of precision were sufficient to distinguish between Maxwellian and non-Maxwellian distribution functions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

An upper pressure limit for low- Z benign termination of runaway electron beams in TCV

Abstract We present a model for the particle balance in the post-disruption runaway electron plateau phase of a tokamak discharge. The model is constructed with the help of, and applied to, experimental data from TCV discharges investigating the so-called ‘low- Z benign termination’ runaway electron mitigation scheme. In the benign termination scheme, the free electron density is first reduced in order for a subsequently induced MHD instability to grow rapidly and spread the runaway electrons widely across the wall. We show that the observed non-monotonic dependence of the free electron density with the measured neutral pressure is due to plasma re-ionization induced by runaway electron impact ionization. At higher neutral pressures, more target particles are present in the plasma for runaway electrons to collide with and ionize. Parameter scans are conducted to clarify the role of the runaway electron density and energy on the free electron density, and it is found that only the runaway electron density has a noticeable impact. While the free electron density is shown to be related to the spread of heat fluxes at termination, the exact cause for the upper neutral pressure limit remains undetermined and an object for further study.

Hoppe, M. (ORCID:0000000339948977)↗

DOE OSTI2021

Phenomenological model of the third-harmonic magnetic response due to superconducting fluctuations: Application to Sr 2 RuO 4

Here, we employ the phenomenological Lawrence-Doniach model to compute the contributions of the superconducting fluctuations to the third-harmonic magnetic response, denoted here by $\bar{M_3}$, which can be measured in a precise way using ac magnetic fields and lock-in techniques. We show that, in an intermediate temperature regime, this quantity behaves as the third-order nonlinear susceptibility, which shows a power-law dependence with the reduced temperature ε = $\frac{T-T_c}{T_c}$ as ε -5/2 . Very close to T c , however, $\bar{M_3}$ saturates due to the nonzero amplitude of the ac field. We compare our theoretical results with experimental data for three conventional superconductors—lead, niobium, and vanadium—and for the unconventional superconductor Sr 2 RuO 4 (SRO). We find good agreement between theory and experiment for the elemental superconductors, although the theoretical values for the critical field systematically deviate from the experimental ones. In the case of SRO, however, the phenomenological model completely fails to describe the data, as the third-harmonic response remains sizable over a much wider reduced temperature range compared to Pb, Nb, and V. We show that an inhomogeneous distribution of T c across the sample can partially account for this discrepancy, since regions with a locally higher T c contribute to the fluctuation $\bar{M_3}$ significantly more than regions with the “nominal” T c of the clean system. However, the exponential temperature dependence of $\bar{M_3}$ first reported by Pelc et al. [Nat. Commun. 10, 2729 (2019)] is not captured by the model with inhomogeneity. We conclude that, while inhomogeneity is an important ingredient to understand the superconducting fluctuations of SRO and other perovskite superconductors, additional effects may be at play, such as non-Gaussian fluctuations or rare-region effects.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2021

Proton pairing in neutron stars from chiral effective field theory

Here, we study the 1 S 0 proton pairing gap in beta-equilibrated neutron star matter within the framework of chiral effective field theory. We focus on the role of three-body forces, which strongly modify the effective proton-proton spin-singlet interaction in dense matter. We find that three-body forces generically reduce both the size of the pairing gap and the maximum density at which proton pairing may occur. The pairing gap is computed within BCS theory using a single-particle dispersion relation calculated up to second order in perturbation theory. Model uncertainties are estimated by varying the nuclear potential (its order in the chiral expansion and high-momentum cutoff) and the choice of single-particle spectrum in the gap equation. We find that a second-order perturbative treatment of the single-particle spectrum suppresses the proton 1 S 0 pairing gap relative to the use of a free spectrum. We estimate the critical temperature for the onset of proton superconductivity to be T c = (3:2–5:1) 10 9 K, which is consistent with previous theoretical results in the literature and marginally within the range deduced from a recent Bayesian analysis of neutron star cooling observations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Theoretical Analysis of a Single-Stage Gas-Fired Ejector Heat Pump Water Heater

Ejector driven systems have the ability to operate at high efficiencies, utilizing recycled thermal energy as a power source. For a typical ejector heat pump system, the increase of the condenser temperature reduces the coefficient of performance (COP). In addition, if the condenser temperature is higher than the critical temperature, the ejector may not function. In this situation, the condenser temperature must be reduced, and an additional heater will be utilized to heat the production water from the condenser temperature to the desired temperature. In this investigation, a single-stage gas-fired ejector heat pump (EHP) is investigated and thermodynamically modeled in order to optimize the system COP for the purpose of heating water by utilizing the thermal energy from the ambient air. The effects of the high-temperature evaporator (HTE) and low-temperature evaporator (LTE) temperatures on the ejector critical back pressure and the EHP system performance are examined for a HTE temperature range of 120–180 °C and LTE temperatures of 15.5, 17.5, and 19.5 °C. Results show that an optimized COP of the EHP system exists which depends on HTE and LTE temperatures, primary nozzle throat diameters. In addition, it is found that the EHP COP is independent of the ejector COP. From this investigation a maximum EHP COP of 1.31 is able to be achieved for a HTE temperature of 160 °C and a LTE temperature of 19.5 °C with a total heat capacity of 15.98 kW.

Spitzenberger, Jeremy↗

NASA NTRS1985

Composite laminate free edge reinforcement concepts

The presence of a free edge in a laminated composite structure can result in delamination of the composite under certain loading conditions. Linear finite element analysis predicts large or even singular interlaminar stresses near the free edge. Edge reinforcements which will reduce these interlaminar stresses, prevent or delay the onset of delaminations, and thereby increase the strength and life of the structure were studied. Finite element models are used to analyze reinforced laminates which were subsequently fabricated and loaded to failure in order to verify the analysis results.

Howard, W. E.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Cool Flames in Propane-Oxygen Premixtures at Low and Intermediate Temperatures at Reduced-Gravity

The Cool Flame Experiment aims to address the role of diffusive transport on the structure and the stability of gas-phase, non-isothermal, hydrocarbon oxidation reactions, cool flames and auto-ignition fronts in an unstirred, static reactor. These reactions cannot be studied on Earth where natural convection due to self-heating during the course of slow reaction dominates diffusive transport and produces spatio-temporal variations in the thermal and thus species concentration profiles. On Earth, reactions with associated Rayleigh numbers (Ra) less than the critical Ra for onset of convection (Ra(sub cr) approx. 600) cannot be achieved in laboratory-scale vessels for conditions representative of nearly all low-temperature reactions. In fact, the Ra at 1g ranges from 10(exp 4) - 10(exp 5) (or larger), while at reduced-gravity, these values can be reduced two to six orders of magnitude (below Ra(sub cr)), depending on the reduced-gravity test facility. Currently, laboratory (1g) and NASA s KC-135 reduced-gravity (g) aircraft studies are being conducted in parallel with the development of a detailed chemical kinetic model that includes thermal and species diffusion. Select experiments have also been conducted at partial gravity (Martian, 0.3gearth) aboard the KC-135 aircraft. This paper discusses these preliminary results for propane-oxygen premixtures in the low to intermediate temperature range (310- 350 C) at reduced-gravity.

Pearlman, Howard↗

NASA NTRS2005

Lifing of Engine Components

The successful development of advanced aerospace engines depends greatly on the capabilities of high performance materials and structures. Advanced materials, such as nickel based single crystal alloys, metal foam, advanced copper alloys, and ceramics matrix composites, have been engineered to provide higher engine temperature and stress capabilities. Thermal barrier coatings have been developed to improve component durability and fuel efficiency, by reducing the substrate hot wall metal temperature and protecting against oxidation and blanching. However, these coatings are prone to oxidation and delamination failures. In order to implement the use of these materials in advanced engines, it is necessary to understand and model the evolution of damage of the metal substrate as well as the coating under actual engine conditions. The models and the understanding of material behavior are utilized in the development of a life prediction methodology for hot section components. The research activities were focused on determining the stress and strain fields in an engine environment under combined thermo-mechanical loads to develop life prediction methodologies consistent with the observed damage formation of the coating and the substrates.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2010

Initialization and Restart in Stochastic Local Search: Computing a Most Probable Explanation in Bayesian Networks

For hard computational problems, stochastic local search has proven to be a competitive approach to finding optimal or approximately optimal problem solutions. Two key research questions for stochastic local search algorithms are: Which algorithms are effective for initialization? When should the search process be restarted? In the present work we investigate these research questions in the context of approximate computation of most probable explanations (MPEs) in Bayesian networks (BNs). We introduce a novel approach, based on the Viterbi algorithm, to explanation initialization in BNs. While the Viterbi algorithm works on sequences and trees, our approach works on BNs with arbitrary topologies. We also give a novel formalization of stochastic local search, with focus on initialization and restart, using probability theory and mixture models. Experimentally, we apply our methods to the problem of MPE computation, using a stochastic local search algorithm known as Stochastic Greedy Search. By carefully optimizing both initialization and restart, we reduce the MPE search time for application BNs by several orders of magnitude compared to using uniform at random initialization without restart. On several BNs from applications, the performance of Stochastic Greedy Search is competitive with clique tree clustering, a state-of-the-art exact algorithm used for MPE computation in BNs.

Mengshoel, Ole J.↗

NASA NTRS2014

The Gravity Field, Orientation, and Ephemeris of Mercury from MESSENGER Observations After Three Years in Orbit

We have analyzed three years of radio tracking data from the MESSENGER spacecraft in orbit around Mercury and determined the gravity field, planetary orientation, and ephemeris of the innermost planet. With improvements in spatial coverage, force modeling, and data weighting, we refined an earlier global gravity field both in quality and resolution, and we present here a spherical harmonic solution to degree and order 50. In this field, termed HgM005, uncertainties in low-degree coefficients are reduced by an order of magnitude relative to the earlier global field, and we obtained a preliminary value of the tidal Love number k(sub 2) of 0.451+/-0.014. We also estimated Mercury's pole position, and we obtained an obliquity value of 2.06 +/- 0.16 arcmin, in good agreement with analysis of Earth-based radar observations. From our updated rotation period (58.646146 +/- 0.000011 days) and Mercury ephemeris, we verified experimentally the planet's 3: 2 spin-orbit resonance to greater accuracy than previously possible. We present a detailed analysis of the HgM005 covariance matrix, and we describe some near-circular frozen orbits around Mercury that could be advantageous for future exploration.

MESSENGER↗

NASA NTRS2021

Spillway Preheating

Cosmology of Theories beyond the SM↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Linear Parameter-Varying Control Compatible with Excitation for Real-Time Modeling

The Modeling and Control for Agile Aircraft Development project (MCAAD) seeks to reduce the time spent on wind tunnel testing and computational fluid dynamic modeling when developing control laws for new commercial and military aircraft. MCAAD uses advanced dynamic modeling procedures coupled with real-time control design which can reduce the time and cost spent on traditional aircraft development methods. This is done in-flight by using a real-time modeling procedure where programmed test inputs (PTI) deflect the aircraft control surfaces, and the responses are measured in order to create a dynamic model. This paper presents an 𝐻∞-based linear parameter-varying (LPV) control law designed on a nonlinear rigid-body dynamic model which commands control surface deflections at frequencies above the PTI frequency band. Thus the controller will not suppress the response due to the PTI. The LPV controller is compared with a previously designed Nonlinear Dynamic Inversion (NDI) controller and the coherence between the commanded control surface deflections and the PTI is plotted for both controllers. The LPV controller is shown to distort the PTI less than the NDI controller.

Luke J. Miller↗

DOE OSTI2020

Turbulent kinetic energy over large offshore wind farms observed and simulated by the mesoscale model WRF (3.8.1)

Abstract. Wind farms affect local weather and microclimates;hence, parameterizations of their effects have been developed for numerical weather prediction models.While most wind farm parameterizations (WFPs) include drag effects of wind farms, models differ on whether or not an additionalturbulent kinetic energy (TKE) source should be included in theseparameterizations to simulate the impact of wind farms on the boundary layer.Therefore, we use aircraft measurements above large offshore wind farms in stable conditions to evaluateWFP choices. Of the three case studies we examine, we find the simulated ambient backgroundflow to agree with observations of temperature stratification and winds. This agreement allows us toexplore the sensitivity of simulated wind farm effects with respect to modeling choicessuch as whether or not to include a TKE source, horizontal resolution, vertical resolutionand advection of TKE. For a stably stratified marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL), a TKE source and a horizontal resolutionon the order of 5 km or finer are necessary to represent the impact of offshore wind farms on the MABL.Additionally, TKE advection results in excessively reduced TKE over the wind farms, which in turn causesan underestimation of the wind speed deficit above the wind farm. Furthermore, using fine verticalresolution increases the agreement of the simulated wind speed with satellite observations of surface wind speed.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Identifying human failure events (HFEs) for external hazard probabilistic risk assessment

In recent years, several advancements in nuclear power plant (NPP) probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) have been driven by increased understanding of external hazards, plant response, and uncertainties. However, major sources of uncertainty associated with external hazard PRA remain. One important source is how risk-significant human actions that are carried out to enable plant response and recovery from natural hazards cause the close coupling of physical impacts on plants and overall plant risk during these hazard events. This makes human reliability and human-plant interactions important elements to consider in resolving PRA gaps in external hazards. One of the challenges in considering human response in external hazard probabilistic risk assessment (XHPRA) is that most existing human reliability analysis (HRA) models were not developed for assessing actions outside the control room (termed ex-control room actions) and hazard response. To support this new scope, HRA models will need to be developed or modified to support identification of human activities, causal factors, and uncertainties inherent in external hazard response, thereby providing insights regarding event timing and physical event conditions as they relate to human performance. In this study, there are two main objectives: (1) evaluate the applicability of an existing cognitive-based HRA method, Phoenix, to ex-control room actions, and (2) identify sources of uncertainty to be characterized or reduced in order to make this method suitable for XHPRA. The first step of such work is performed by assessing the suitability of existing HRA methods to support identifying human failure events (HFEs) for human response to flooding hazards. These HFEs are human actions or inactions that are involved in human responses to flooding hazards and could contribute to the loss of a critical function for the plant in the scenario being examined. Here, in this work, decomposition analyses using the cognitive-based Phoenix HRA model are used to identify HFEs. The Phoenix method was found to be suitable for analyzing ex-control room actions as well as identifying specific HFEs and underlying crew failure modes (CFMs). However, the method's suitability for use in ex-control room actions would benefit from expanding the available CFMs to accommodate a larger variety of physical and communication tasks.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Neutrino masses from low scale partial compositeness

We consider a class of models in which the neutrinos acquire Majorana masses through mixing with singlet neutrinos that emerge as composite states of a strongly coupled hidden sector. In this framework, the light neutrinos are partially composite particles that obtain their masses through the inverse seesaw mechanism. We focus on the scenario in which the strong dynamics is approximately conformal in the ultraviolet, and the compositeness scale lies at or below the weak scale. The small parameters in the Lagrangian necessary to realize the observed neutrino masses can naturally arise as a consequence of the scaling dimensions of operators in the conformal field theory. We show that this class of models has interesting implications for a wide variety of experiments, including colliders and beam dumps, searches for lepton flavor violation and neutrinoless double beta decay, and cosmological observations. At colliders and beam dumps, this scenario can give rise to striking signals involving multiple displaced vertices. The exchange of hidden sector states can lead to observable rates for flavor violating processes such as μ → eγ and μ → e conversion. If the compositeness scale lies at or below a hundred MeV, the rate for neutrinoless double beta decay is suppressed by form factors and may be reduced by an order of magnitude or more. The late decays of relic singlet neutrinos can give rise to spectral distortions in the cosmic microwave background that are large enough to be observed in future experiments.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2020

X-ray atomic mapping of quantum dots

We report a model-independent atomic-mapping technique for quantum dots (QDs) by combining Bragg reflection x-ray standing wave (XSW) and grazing incidence diffraction (GID) measurements. In this study, we choose GaAs capped InGaAs QDs/GaAs(001) as a model system to show the locations and arrangements of indium atoms within the QDs along various [hkl] directions. This technique directly reveals the actual amount of positional anisotropy and ordering fraction of indium atoms within the QDs by probing the (1¯11), (111), (311), (1¯31), (113), and (1¯13) crystallographic planes. We find that indium atoms are outwardly shifted along the [001] direction by small fractions of the lattice constant, 0.04a GaAs and 0.06a GaAs from Ga sites for 50- and 150-Å GaAs capped InGaAs QDs, respectively. We observe that an improved coherency factor of the indium atoms within the QDs by 45–60% along the [001] and [011] directions reduces the photoluminescence linewidth by 22%, thus making the QDs efficient for QD-laser and optoelectronic device applications. Here, we also find that the position and ordering of In atoms along the (113) and (1¯13) planes are most sensitive to the thickness of the GaAs cap layer. Our XSW-based results are supported by numerical calculations using a QD-macroscopic structural model based on our GID study. We thus show that this atomic-mapping technique will be useful for studying various quantum structures and tuning their properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗