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At least 1,783 records · Page 99

Active- and transfer-learning applied to microscale-macroscale coupling to simulate viscoelastic flows

Active- and transfer-learning are applied to microscale dynamics of polymer flows for the multiscale discovery of effective constitutive approximations required in viscoelastic flow simulation. The result is macroscopic rheology directly connected to a microstructural model. Micro and macroscale simulations are adaptively coupled by means of Gaussian process regression (GPR) to run the expensive microscale computations only as necessary. This multiscale method is demonstrated with flows of a polymer solution as a model system. At the microscale level dissipative particle dynamics (DPD) is employed to model the fluid as a suspension of bead-spring micro-structures subjected to steady shear flow. The results yield the non-Newtonian viscosity and the first normal stress difference at strain rates as training data used in a GPR model. DPD parameters are calibrated with respect to experimental data for a real polymer solution. Compliance with these data requires adjustment of the DPD model's cutoff radius, which then becomes a function of the second invariant of the strain rate tensor. The FENE-P model is chosen for the macroscale description using the spectral element method (SEM) to simulate channel flow and flow past a circular cylinder. The DPD results at the lowest possible shear strain rate yield an estimate of the zero-shear rate viscosity, which allows the initiation of the macroscale flow by SEM as a Newtonian fluid. The resulting strain-rate field is surveyed to determine additional shear strain rate sampling points for the DPD system. This new information allows an initial fitting of parameters of the constitutive equation followed by new SEM simulations at the macroscale. Additionally, guided by active-learning GPR to select new sampling points, this process continues until convergence is achieved. The effectiveness of this new simulation paradigm for viscoelastic flows is tested with different macroscale operating conditions. The effective closure learned in the channel simulation is then transferred directly to the flow past a circular cylinder at low Reynolds number, where the results show that only two additional DPD simulations are required to achieve a satisfactory constitutive model. With an increase of the Reynolds number, the active-learning scheme automatically detects the inaccuracy of the learned constitutive model, and initiates additional DPD simulations for the extra data needed to once again close the microscale-macroscale coupled system. This new paradigm of active- and transfer-learning for multiscale modeling is readily applicable to other microscale-macroscale coupled simulations of complex fluids and other materials. Furthermore, the coupling between microscale and macroscale solvers can be seamlessly implemented with our open source multiscale universal interface (MUI) library.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Sizing ramping reserve using probabilistic solar forecasts: A data-driven method

Ramping products have been introduced or proposed in several U.S. power markets to mitigate the impact of load and renewable uncertainties on market efficiency and reliability. Current methods often rely on historical data to estimate the requirements of ramping products and fail to take into account the effects of the latest weather conditions and their uncertainties, which could lead to overly conservative or insufficient requirements. This study proposes a k-nearest-neighbor-based method to give weather-informed estimates of ramping needs based on short-term probabilistic solar irradiance forecasts. Forecasts from multiple sites are employed in conjunction with principal component analysis to derive numerical classifiers to characterize system-level weather conditions. In addition, we develop a data-driven method to optimize the model parameters in a rolling-forward manner. By using real-world data from the California Independent System Operator, we design two metrics to evaluate method performance: 1) frequency of shortage and 2) oversupply of ramping product. Our proposed method presents advantages in comparison with the baseline and a set of benchmark methods: without compromising system reliability, it reduces system ramping requirements by up to 25%, therefore improving both system reliability and economics.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Surface Composition of (99942) Apophis

On 2029 April 13, near-Earth asteroid (NEA) (99942) Apophis will pass at a distance of ∼6 Earth radii from Earth. This event will provide researchers with a unique opportunity to study the effects of tidal forces experienced by an asteroid during a close encounter with a terrestrial planet. Binzel et al. predicted that close flybys of terrestrial planets by NEAs would cause resurfacing of their regolith due to seismic shaking. In this work, we present the best pre-encounter near-infrared spectra of Apophis obtained so far. These new data were obtained during the 2013 apparition using the NASA Infrared Telescope Facility (IRTF). We found that our spectral data is consistent with previous observations by Binzel et al. but with a much higher signal-to-noise ratio. Spectral band parameters were extracted from the spectra and were used to determine the composition of the asteroid. Using a naïve Bayes classifier, we computed the likelihood of Apophis being an LL chondrite to be >99% based on mol% of Fa versus Fs. Using the same method, we estimated a probability of 89% for Apophis being an LL chondrite based on ol/(ol+px) and Fs. The results from the dynamical model indicate that the most likely source region for Apophis is the ν {sub 6} resonance in the inner main belt. Data presented in this study (especially Band I depth) could serve as a baseline to verify seismic shaking during the 2029 encounter.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A revised dosimetric characterization of the model S700 electronic brachytherapy source containing an anode-centering plastic insert and other components not included in the 2006 model

Purpose: The model S700 Axxent electronic brachytherapy source by Xoft, Inc., was characterized by Rivard et al. in 2006. Since then, the source design was modified to include a new insert at the source tip. Current study objectives were to establish an accurate source model for simulation purposes, dosimetrically characterize the new source and obtain its TG-43 brachytherapy dosimetry parameters, and determine dose differences between the original simulation model and the current model S700 source design. Methods: Design information from measurements of dissected model S700 sources and from vendor-supplied CAD drawings was used to aid establishment of an updated Monte Carlo source model, which included the complex-shaped plastic source-centering insert intended to promote water flow for cooling the source anode. These data were used to create a model for subsequent radiation transport simulations in a water phantom. Compared to the 2006 simulation geometry, the influence of volume averaging close to the source was substantially reduced. A track-length estimator was used to evaluate collision kerma as a function of radial distance and polar angle for determination of TG-43 dosimetry parameters. Results for the 50 kV source were determined every 0.1 cm from 0.3 to 15 cm and every 1° from 0° to 180°. Photon spectra in water with 0.1 keV resolution were also obtained from 0.5 to 15 cm and polar angles from 0° to 165°. Simulations were run for 10{sup 10} histories, resulting in statistical uncertainties on the transverse plane of 0.04% at r = 1 cm and 0.06% at r = 5 cm. Results: The dose-rate distribution ratio for the model S700 source as compared to the 2006 model exceeded unity by more than 5% for roughly one quarter of the solid angle surrounding the source, i.e., θ ≥ 120°. The radial dose function diminished in a similar manner as for an {sup 125}I seed, with values of 1.434, 0.636, 0.283, and 0.0975 at 0.5, 2, 5, and 10 cm, respectively. The radial dose function ratio between the current and the 2006 model had a minimum of 0.980 at 0.4 cm, close to the source sheath and for large distances approached 1.014. 2D anisotropy function ratios were close to unity for 50° ≤ θ ≤ 110°, but exceeded 5% for θ < 40° at close distances to the sheath and exceeded 15% for θ > 140°, even at large distances. Photon energy fluence of the updated model as compared to the 2006 model showed a decrease in output with increasing distance; this effect was pronounced at the lowest energies. A decrease in photon fluence with increase in polar angle was also observed and was attributed to the silver epoxy component. Conclusions: Changes in source design influenced the overall dose rate and distribution by more than 2% in several regions. This discrepancy is greater than the dose calculation acceptance criteria as recommended in the AAPM TG-56 report. The effect of the design change on the TG-43 parameters would likely not result in dose differences outside of patient applicators. Adoption of this new dataset is suggested for accurate depiction of model S700 source dose distributions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Predicting vehicular emissions in high spatial resolution using pervasively measured transportation data and microscopic emissions model

Air pollution related to traffic emissions pose an especially significant problem in cities; this is due to its adverse impact on human health and well-being. Previous studies which have aimed to quantify emissions from the transportation sector have been limited by either simulated or coarsely resolved traffic volume data. Emissions inventories form the basis of urban pollution models, therefore in this study, Global Positioning System (GPS) trajectory data from a taxi fleet of over 15,000 vehicles were analyzed with the aim of predicting air pollution emissions for Singapore. This novel approach enabled the quantification of instantaneous drive cycle parameters in high spatio-temporal resolution, which provided the basis for a microscopic emissions model. Carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and particulate matter (PM) emissions were thus estimated. Highly localized areas of elevated emissions levels were identified, with a spatio-temporal precision not possible with previously used methods for estimating emissions. Relatively higher emissions areas were mainly concentrated in a few districts that were the Singapore Downtown Core area, to the north of the central urban region and to the east of it. Daily emissions quantified for the total motor vehicle population of Singapore were found to be comparable to another emissions dataset Results demonstrated that high resolution spatio-temporal vehicle traces detected using GPS in large taxi fleets could be used to infer highly localized areas of elevated acceleration and air pollution emissions in cities, and may become a complement to traditional emission estimates, especially in emerging cities and countries where reliable fine-grained urban air quality data is not easily available. This is the first study of its kind to investigate measured microscopic vehicle movement in tandem with microscopic emissions modeling for a substantial study domain.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A New Approach for Obtaining Cosmological Constraints from Type Ia Supernovae using Approximate Bayesian Computation

Cosmological parameter estimation techniques that robustly account for systematic measurement uncertainties will be crucial for the next generation of cosmological surveys. We present a new analysis method, superABC, for obtaining cosmological constraints from Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) light curves using Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) without any likelihood assumptions. The ABC method works by using a forward model simulation of the data where systematic uncertainties can be simulated and marginalized over. A key feature of the method presented here is the use of two distinct metrics, the `Tripp' and `Light Curve' metrics, which allow us to compare the simulated data to the observed data set. The Tripp metric takes as input the parameters of models fit to each light curve with the SALT-II method, whereas the Light Curve metric uses the measured fluxes directly without model fitting. We apply the superABC sampler to a simulated data set of $\sim$1000 SNe corresponding to the first season of the Dark Energy Survey Supernova Program. Varying $\Omega_m, w_0, \alpha$ and $\beta$ and a magnitude offset parameter, with no systematics we obtain $\Delta(w_0) = w_0^{\rm true} - w_0^{\rm best \, fit} = -0.036\pm0.109$ (a $\sim11$% 1$\sigma$ uncertainty) using the Tripp metric and $\Delta(w_0) = -0.055\pm0.068$ (a $\sim7$% 1$\sigma$ uncertainty) using the Light Curve metric. Including 1% calibration uncertainties in four passbands, adding 4 more parameters, we obtain $\Delta(w_0) = -0.062\pm0.132$ (a $\sim14$% 1$\sigma$ uncertainty) using the Tripp metric. Overall we find a $17$% increase in the uncertainty on $w_0$ with systematics compared to without. We contrast this with a MCMC approach where systematic effects are approximately included. We find that the MCMC method slightly underestimates the impact of calibration uncertainties for this simulated data set.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Analysis of the Pressure-Pulse Propagation in Rock: a New Approach to Simultaneously Determine Permeability, Porosity, and Adsorption Capacity

Permeability estimation from pressure-pulse decay method is complicated by two facts: (1) the decay curve often deviates from the single-exponential behavior in the early time period and (2) possible existence of gas adsorption. Both the two factors cause significant permeability error in most of pressure-pulse decay methods. In this paper, we first present a thorough analysis of pressure-pulse propagation process to reveal the mechanism behind the early time and later time behaviors of pressure decay curve. Inspired by the findings from these analyses, a new scaled pressure is proposed which can: (1) be easily used to distinguish the early time and later time data and (2) make the decay curves of all cases into a single 1:1 straight line for later time. A new data-proceeding method, which calculates the apparent porosity and permeability using the same set of measured data, is then developed. The new method could not only remove the effects of the adsorption on the permeability estimation, but also identify the apparent porosity as well as proper adsorption model and parameters. The proposed method is verified by comparing with true values and calculated values through numerical simulations that cover variations in typical rock properties (porosity, permeability, slippage, and adsorption) and the experiment configurations. It is found that the new method is accurate and reliable for all test cases, whereas the Brace’s and Cui’s approaches may cause permeability error in some cases. Lastly, the new method has been successfully applied to real data measured in pressure-pulse decay experiments involving different types of rocks and gases.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Measuring the largest angular scale CMB B-mode polarization with galactic foregrounds on a cut sky

We consider the effectiveness of foreground cleaning in the recovery of Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) polarization sourced by gravitational waves for tensor-to-scalar ratios in the range 0<r<0.1. Using the planned survey area, frequency bands, and sensitivity of the Cosmology Large Angular Scale Surveyor (CLASS), we simulate maps of Stokes Q and U parameters at 40, 90, 150, and 220 GHz, including realistic models of the CMB, diffuse Galactic thermal dust and synchrotron foregrounds, and Gaussian white noise. We use linear combinations (LCs) of the simulated multifrequency data to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of r, the relative scalar amplitude s, and LC coefficients. We find that for 10,000 simulations of a CLASS-like experiment using only measurements of the reionization peak (ℓ⩽23), there is a 95% C.L. upper limit of r<0.017 in the case of no primordial gravitational waves. For simulations with r=0.01, we recover at 68% C.L. r=0.012{sub −0.006}{sup +0.011}. The reionization peak corresponds to a fraction of the multipole moments probed by CLASS, and simulations including 30⩽ℓ⩽100 further improve our upper limits to r<0.008 at 95% C.L. (r=0.010{sub −0.004}{sup +0.004} for primordial gravitational waves with r = 0.01). In addition to decreasing the current upper bound on r by an order of magnitude, these foreground-cleaned low multipole data will achieve a cosmic variance limited measurement of the E-mode polarization’s reionization peak.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Efficient calibration for imperfect computer models

Many computer models contain unknown parameters which need to be estimated using physical observations. Furthermore, the calibration method based on Gaussian process models may lead to unreasonable estimate for imperfect computer models. In this work, we extend their study to calibration problems with stochastic physical data. We propose a novel method, called the L 2 calibration, and show its semiparametric efficiency. The conventional method of the ordinary least squares is also studied. Theoretical analysis shows that it is consistent but not efficient. Here, numerical examples show that the proposed method outperforms the existing ones.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Visualizing Wind Farm Wakes Using SCADA Data

As wind farms scale to include more and more turbines, questions about turbine wake interactions become increasingly important. Turbine wakes reduce wind speed and downwind turbines suffer decreased performance. The cumulative effect of the wakes throughout a wind farm will therefore decrease the performance of the entire farm. These interactions are dynamic and complicated, and it is difficult to quantify the overall effect of the wakes. This problem has attracted some attention in terms of computational modelling for siting turbines on new farms, but less attention in terms of empirical studies and performance validation of existing farms. In this report, Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) data from an existing wind farm is analyzed in order to explore methods for documenting wake interactions. Visualization techniques are proposed and used to analyze wakes in a 67 turbine farm. The visualizations are based on directional analysis using power measurements, and can be considered to be normalized capacity factors below rated power. Wind speed measurements are not used in the analysis except for data pre-processing. Four wake effects are observed; including wake deficit, channel speed up, and two potentially new effects, single and multiple shear point speed up. In addition, an attempt is made to quantify wake losses using the same SCADA data. Power losses for the specific wind farm investigated are relatively low, estimated to be in the range of 3-5%. Finally, a simple model based on the wind farm geometrical layout is proposed. Key parameters for the model have been estimated by comparing wake profiles at different ranges and making some ad hoc assumptions. A preliminary comparison of six selected profiles shows excellent agreement with the model. Where discrepancies are observed, reasonable explanations can be found in multi-turbine speedup effects and landscape features, which are yet to be modelled.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Development, Monitoring, and Control of Fracture Thermal Energy Storage (FTES) in Crystalline Rock Formations (DEMO-FTES) (CRADA Final Report)

The DEMO-FTES project sought to demonstrate the thermal efficiency of fracture thermal energy storage (FTES) through numerical simulations, laboratory and meso-scale field tests. A detailed dimensional and scaling analysis was performed to identify key parameters and how they can be most effectively scaled to the laboratory and decameter scale. Numerical models were developed and used for three purposes: 1. Before field experiments, numerical modelling can be used to estimate fracture properties based on previous data from the EGS Collab experiment and then predict thermal hydrological behaviors of the fracture system with hot water injection/withdrawal, therefore, help to design the experiments (e.g., to decide the duration of the cycles based on the flow rate the pump can provide, and the estimated fracture properties); 2. After the field experiment, to estimate the system properties during the experiment (as the size and shape of a fracture could change over time), and understand why system performance is different than what has been predicted, i.e., to help understand the meso-scale test; and, 3. To model the lab experiments and estimate fracture properties and storage efficiency. Ultimately, the experiment and numerical models could shed light on the processes and uncertainty happening during fracture activation and help understand the scaling between lab and field test, and finally, the design and optimization of potential fracture thermal energy storage systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Nonstationary ascent wind analysis.

A statistical approach for computing launch vehicle response to inflight winds is presented. In the response analysis the zonal component of the ascent wind velocity is modeled as a nonstationary random process. Model parameters are computed by processing available measured wind data. Pertinent pitch plane response statistics are computed and their value in constructing fatigue load spectra for a reusable launch vehicle is demonstrated. A method for using the response statistics to estimate structural reliability is also discussed. The accuracy and the cost saving potential of the probabilistic structural dynamics approach are assessed by performing comparisons with digital simulation results.

Howell, L. J.↗

Monitoring the Vernal Advancement and Retrogradation (Green Wave Effect) of Natural Vegetation

The author has identified the following significant results. The Great Plains Corridor rangeland project successfully utilized natural vegetation systems as phenological indicators of seasonal development and climatic effects upon regional growth conditions. An effective method was developed for quantitative measurement of vegetation conditions, including green biomass estimates, recorded in bands 5 and 6, corrected for sun angle, were used to compute a ratio parameter (TV16) which is shown to be highly correlated with green biomass and vegatation moisture content. Analyses results of ERTS-1 digital data and correlated ground data are summarized. Attention was given to analyzing weather influences and test site variables on vegetation condition measurements with ERTS-1 data.

Rouse, J. W., Jr.↗

An off-design correlation of part span damper losses through transonic axial fan rotors

The experimental performance of 10 transonic fan rotors was used to correlate losses caused by midchord part-span dampers (PSD) during off-design operation between 50 and 100 percent of design speed. The design tip speed for the rotors used varied from 419 to 425 m/s and the design pressure ratios from 1.6 to 2.0. The loss attributable to the damper and the region influenced along the blade height was correlated with relevant aerodynamic and geometric parameters. The losses at the design point were estimated by a previously reported correlation (Roberts, 1978). Using this as a base, the off-design losses were correlated with variation in blade suction surface incidence. A check with independent data showed that the prediction of damper losses and region of influence was fair to good for most of the off-design data examined.

Roberts, W. B.↗

Applications of model structure determination to flight test data

Several statistical and information criteria need to be considered when selecting an adequate model. Incorrect stability and control derivates result from inadequate aerodynamic model structure. Stepwise regression is used to determine the structure for an adequate model. Flight data which covers a nonlinear aerodynamic model range may be analyzed as a single data set or partitioned into several distinct sets. Stepwise regression for model structure detemination and parameter estimation was successfully applied to three aircraft types (single engine general aviation, unaugmented modern jet fighter, jet transport).

Batterson, J. G.↗

Atmospheric environment for space shuttle (STS-33) launch

A summary is presented of selected atmospheric conditions observed near space shuttle STS-33 at launch time. STS-33 carried a DOD payload and the flight azimuth is denoted by a reference flight azimuth, since the actual flight azimuth is not known. Values of ambient pressure, temperature, moisture, ground winds, visual observations (clouds), and winds aloft are included. The sequence of pre-launch Jimsphere measured vertical wind profiles is given. The final atmospheric tape, which consists of wind and thermodynamic parameters versus altitude, for STS-33 vehicle ascent, was constructed. The STS-33 ascent atmospheric data tape was constructed by NASA-Marshall to provide an internally consistent data set for use in postflight performance assessments and represents the best estimates of the launch environment to the 400,000 ft altitude that was traversed by the STS-33 vehicle.

Jasper, G. L.↗

Optical pattern recognition; Proceedings of the Meeting, Los Angeles, CA, Jan. 17, 18, 1989

Papers on optical pattern recognition are presented, covering topics such as the estimation of satellite pose and motion parameters using a neural net tracker, associative memory, optical implmentation of programmable neural networks, optoelectronic neural networks, dynamic autoassociative neural memory, heteroassociative memory, bilinear pattern recognition processors, optical processing of optical correlation plane data, and a synthetic discriminant function-based nonlinear optical correlator. Other topics include an interactive optical-digital image processor, geometric transformations for video compression and human teleoperator display, quasiconformal remapping for compensation of human visual field defects, hybrid vision for automated spacecraft landing, advanced symbolic and inference optical correlation filters, and a rotationally invariant holographic tracking system. Additional topics include the detection of rotational and scale-varying objects with a programmable joint transform correlator, a single spatial light modulator binary nonlinear optical correlator, optical joint transform correlation, linear phase coefficient composite filters, and binary phase-only filters.

Liu, Hua-Kuang↗

Atmospheric environment for Space Shuttle Atlantis (STS-39) launch

A summary is presented of selected atmospheric conditions observed near space shuttle Atlantis STS-39 launch time on 28 April 1991, at Kennedy Space Center, FL. Values of ambient pressure, temperature, moisture, ground winds, visual observations (cloud), and winds aloft are included. The sequence of prelaunch Jimsphere measured vertical wind profiles is given. The final atmospheric tape, which consists of wind and thermodynamic parameters versus altitude, for STS-39 vehicle ascent was constructed. The STS-39 ascent atmospheric data tape was constructed by NASA-Marshall to provide an internally consistent data set for use in postflight performance assessments and represents the best estimate of the launch environment to the 400,000 ft altitude that was traversed by the STS-39 vehicle.

Jasper, G. L.↗