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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating the Impact of Residential Solar Contract Cancellations in the United States

The residential solar photovoltaic (PV) market in the United States is growing, despite frequent customer cancellations. Contract cancellations result in lost time and costs that must be borne by installers, often in the form of higher "soft costs" (i.e., non-equipment costs). These costs are often passed on to customers who successfully install PV systems. To date, few studies have attempted to estimate national cancellation rates or model the impacts on installed system costs. In this report, we utilize an installer-provided dataset of 199,665 residential PV-only projects representing about 10% of U.S. installs each year from 2017-2019. With this data, we evaluate cancellation rates and trends from contract signing to install. Next, by leveraging NREL's soft cost model for residential solar, we estimate installer spending through each phase of the pre-install process. Applying our findings on cancellation timelines and rates, we then estimate the potential cost impacts to successful installs from contract cancellations. Our work suggests that the rates and impacts of contract cancellations have been previously underestimated. Namely, we find that cancellations/unsuccessful project are; more common than previous estimates suggest; occur earlier in project timelines, though a significant number happen even after permit/ATB approvals; and contribute significantly to customer acquisition and other soft costs. We also find that cancellation do not appear to be driven by review delays in permitting and interconnection applications.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dynamic Material Flow Analysis of Silicon Photovoltaic Modules to Support a Circular Economy Transition

Solar photovoltaics (PV) are the fastest growing renewable energy technologies for clean, cheap, and sustainable electricity generation. To prepare for rapid scale-up, the PV industry needs to project material requirements to build out all aspects of the supply chain appropriately and plan to handle large volumes of module waste. Impacts of deploying different material circularity strategies to reduce waste and conserve primary resources need to be quantified to inform sustainable material management. Here, we introduce the photovoltaic dynamic material flow analysis (PV DMFA) model based on PV electricity generation. The model quantifies material flows and stocks in the cradle-to-cradle life cycles of utility-scale c-Si PV systems in the United States through 2100. We present case studies for solar flat glass and aluminum frame materials under various scenarios to project the impacts of PV performance, reliability, and processing parameters, material circularity strategies, and module design shifts. In the absence of circularity measures, ~100 million MT of flat glass and ~12 million MT of aluminum would be needed for PV installations by 2100 to meet projected growth in domestic utility PV demand to nearly 1000 TWh in 2100. With optimistic but feasible improvements in efficiency, reliability, and circularity, material intensity and waste could be reduced by nearly 50%. Efficient module collection, minimally intrusive recycling, and careful scrap handling and cleaning could improve material circularity in the PV value chain. This model serves as a sustainability data support tool that may aid in the circular economy transition for PV systems.

circular economy↗
DOE OSTI2022

Future-proofing photovoltaics module reliability through a unifying predictive modeling framework

Solar energy, especially photovoltaics (PV), plays a significant role in the global energy transition required for decarbonization. Technological advancements in increasing efficiencies coupled with cost reductions through economies of scale made PV a cost-competitive energy source set to exceed the milestone of 1 TW globally deployed capacity in 2022. However, ongoing downward price pressure coupled with increasing service life expectations creates tremendous challenges for reliability engineers in ensuring the safe and reliable operation of PV modules and systems over the anticipated service life. Today's reliability research efforts aim for module lifetimes of up to 50 years. Still, our current tools fall short in accurately assessing degradation mechanisms and failure modes over such extended periods. We argue that the well-established PV reliability learning cycle needs to be accelerated to keep up with the rapid technological advancements and high expectations that are put on PV and its role in the global energy transition. In this article, we explore the evolution of the PV reliability learning cycle and highlight the significance that predictive modeling capabilities will have on future PV module reliability. We propose creating a unifying modeling framework - which once established will enable the holistic assessment of PV module reliability, accelerate the PV reliability learning cycle, and bring us closer to quantitative service life predictions of PV modules.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

Percutaneous Vertebroplasty is no Risk Factor for New Vertebral Fractures and Protects Against Further Height Loss (VERTOS IV)

Background: Percutaneous vertebroplasty (PV) is an alternative option to treat pain after an osteoporotic vertebral compression fracture (OVCF). Controversy exists as to whether PV increases the risk of new OVCFs or prevents further vertebral height loss in treated levels. We assessed both during 1-year follow-up in patients with acute OVCF randomised to PV or a sham procedure. Methods: VERTOS IV is a prospective, multicentre, randomised controlled trial comparing PV with sham therapy in 180 patients. New OVCFs and further vertebral height loss were assessed at 3, 6, and 12 months. Results: After a median follow-up of 12 months (interquartile range (IQR) = 12–12) 31 new fractures were reported in 15 patients from the PV group and 28 new fractures in 19 patients from the sham group. The occurrence of new vertebral fractures did not significantly differ between the groups (χ{sup 2}(1) = 0.83, p = 0.36, OR = .71, 95%CI = 0.33–1.50). There was no higher fracture risk of adjacent versus distant vertebrae. After sham procedure, further height loss of treated vertebrae occurred more frequently (7 patients (8%) in the PV group and 39 (45%) in the sham group (χ{sup 2}(1) = 28.85, p < 0.001, OR = 9.84, 95%CI = 4.08–23.73)) and was more severe (p < .001) than after PV. Conclusions: The risk of further vertebral height loss is significantly lower after PV compared to a sham intervention, i.e. PV protects against progressive vertebral height loss. In addition, PV does not increase the risk of new adjacent and distant OVCFs. Level of Evidence: Level 1a, therapeutic study. ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01200277.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Passive and active peer effects in the spatial diffusion of residential solar panels: A case study of the Las Vegas Valley

This research analyzes the role of peer influences on the adoption of residential rooftop solar photovoltaic panels (PV) within the context of the Diffusion of Innovation Theory. PV literature indicates that adopters are influenced by word of mouth (WOM) information exchange with peers, i.e., active peer effects, while other studies suggest that living near households with visible rooftop PV installations influences adoption, i.e., passive peer effects. We bridge the gap in this literature by conducting a mixed methods analysis. We develop and administer a survey to Las Vegas Valley (LVV) residents to identify current and potential PV adopters' perceptions of peer-effects and consumer intention variables. We conduct a spatial analysis of Google's Project Sunroof data to identify LVV neighborhoods in the later stages of the PV diffusion process, i.e., those with the highest PV adoption rates. Key results show that current PV adopters living in early diffusion areas report significantly higher active and passive peer effects compared to adopters in later diffusion areas. Potential adopters in later diffusion areas report higher passive peer effects than those in early diffusion areas. Overall, because LVV has a low PV adoption rate (<3%), short term strategies aimed at increasing PV adoption should emphasize WOM active peer effects. Here, we caution against long-term green marketing strategies focusing solely on peer-effects as the PV market matures.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2014

Structural and electronic modification of photovoltaic SnS by alloying

Emergence of a terawatt scalable photovoltaic (PV) thin film technology is currently impeded by the limited supply of relatively rare elements like In or Te, which has spurred active research in recent years on earth-abundant PV materials. Instead of searching for alternative PV materials, we approach the problem here by structural modification through alloying of a known PV material, namely, tin sulfide. Although SnS is a strong visible light absorber that is naturally p-doped, its indirect band gap reduces the open circuit voltage of SnS-based solar cells. The anisotropic crystal structure results in undesirable anisotropic transport properties. Based on the observation that the isoelectronic sulfides MgS, CaS, and SrS assume the rock-salt structure, we use ab initio calculations to explore the structure and electronic properties of metastable Sn{sub 1−x}(II){sub x}S (II = Mg, Ca, Sr) alloys, finding that the isotropic rock-salt phase is stabilized above x = 0.2–0.3, and predicting direct band gaps in the range of interest for PV applications, i.e., 0.6–1.5 eV for Ca and Sr alloying. We subsequently synthesized such Sn{sub 1−x}(Ca){sub x}S films by pulsed laser deposition, confirmed the cubic rock-salt structure, and observed optical band gaps between 1.1 and 1.3 eV. These results highlight the potential of structural modification by alloying as a route to widen the otherwise limited materials base for promising earth-abundant materials.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2018

Geographic smoothing of solar photovoltaic electric power production in the Western USA

We examined the geographic smoothing of solar photovoltaic generation from 15 utility-scale plants in California, Nevada, and Arizona and from 19 commercial building installations in California. This is the first comparison of geographic smoothing from utility-scale and building-mounted PV and the first examination of solar PV smoothing in this region. Our research questions were (1) how does geographic smoothing of commercial building rooftop PV compare to that of utility scale PV?, (2) is the geographic smoothing found for utility-scale plants the same for the western US as in India?, and (3) how does the geographic smoothing for PV compare to that of wind? By examining the power output of these generators in the frequency domain, we quantified the smoothing obtained by combining the output of geographically separated plants. We found that utility-scale and commercial rooftop plants exhibited similar geographic smoothing, with 10 combined plants reducing the amplitude of fluctuations at 1 h to 18%–28% of those seen for a single plant. We find that combining a few PV sites together reduces fluctuations, but that the point of quickly diminishing returns is reached after ∼5 sites, and that for all the locations and plant sizes considered, PV does not exhibit as much geographic smoothing as is seen for combining wind plants. We present preliminary theoretical arguments for why geographic smoothing of PV plants is less effective than that for wind plants. The slope of the high-frequency part of the PV power spectrum can at best be geographically smoothed (steepen) to an asymptotic spectrum of [Formula: see text]. This limit for PV has considerably less smoothing than that for wind's geographic smoothing, shown theoretically and from observed data to be [Formula: see text].

Klima, Kelly↗
DOE OSTI2015

PVMirror: A New Concept for Tandem Solar Cells and Hybrid Solar Converters

As the solar electricity market has matured, energy conversion efficiency and storage have joined installed system cost as significant market drivers. In response, manufacturers of flatplate silicon photovoltaic (PV) cells have pushed cell efficiencies above 25%—nearing the 29.4% detailed-balance efficiency limit— and both solar thermal and battery storage technologies have been deployed at utility scale. This paper introduces a new tandem solar collector employing a “PVMirror” that has the potential to both increase energy conversion efficiency and provide thermal storage. A PVMirror is a concentrating mirror, spectrum splitter, and light-to-electricity converter all in one: It consists of a curved arrangement of PV cells that absorb part of the solar spectrum and reflect the remainder to their shared focus, at which a second solar converter is placed. A strength of the design is that the solar converter at the focus can be of a radically different technology than the PV cells in the PVMirror; another is that the PVMirror converts a portion of the diffuse light to electricity in addition to the direct light. Here, we consider two case studies—a PV cell located at the focus of the PVMirror to form a four-terminal PV–PV tandem, and a thermal receiver located at the focus to form a PV–CSP (concentrating solar thermal power) tandem—and compare the outdoor energy outputs to those of competing technologies. PVMirrors can outperform (idealized) monolithic PV–PV tandems that are under concentration, and they can also generate nearly as much energy as silicon flat-plate PV while simultaneously providing the full energy storage benefit of CSP.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Framework for Optimal Placement of Rooftop Photovoltaic: Maximizing Solar Production and Operational Cost Savings in Residential Communities

Optimizing the placement of photovoltaic (PV) panels on residential buildings has the potential to significantly increase energy efficiency benefits to both homeowners and communities. Strategic PV placement can lower electricity costs by reducing the electricity fed from the grid during on-peak hours, while maintaining PV panel efficiency in terms of the amount of solar radiation received. In this article, we present a framework that identifies the ideal location of PV panels on residential rooftops. Our framework combines energy and environmental simulation, parametric modeling, and optimization to inform PV placement as it relates to and affects the entire community (in terms of both energy use and financial cost), as well as individual buildings. Ensuring that our framework accounts for shading from nearby buildings, different utility rate structures, and different buildings’ energy demand profiles means that existing communities and future housing developments can be optimized for energy savings and PV efficiency. The framework comprises two workflows, each contributing to optimal PV placement with a unique target: (a) maximizing PV panel efficiency (i.e., solar generation) and (b) minimizing operational energy cost considering utility rate structures for operational energy. We apply our framework to a residential community in Fort Collins, Colorado, to demonstrate the optimal PV placement, considering the two workflow targets. Here, we present our results and illustrate the effect of PV location and orientation on solar energy production efficiency and operational energy cost.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

On the Path to SunShot - Emerging Issues and Challenges with Integrating High Levels of Solar into the Distribution System

Wide use of advanced inverters could double the electricity-distribution system’s hosting capacity for distributed PV at low costs—from about 170 GW to 350 GW (see Palmintier et al. 2016). At the distribution system level, increased variable generation due to high penetrations of distributed PV (typically rooftop and smaller ground-mounted systems) could challenge the management of distribution voltage, potentially increase wear and tear on electromechanical utility equipment, and complicate the configuration of circuit-breakers and other protection systems—all of which could increase costs, limit further PV deployment, or both. However, improved analysis of distribution system hosting capacity—the amount of distributed PV that can be interconnected without changing the existing infrastructure or prematurely wearing out equipment—has overturned previous rule-of-thumb assumptions such as the idea that distributed PV penetrations higher than 15% require detailed impact studies. For example, new analysis suggests that the hosting capacity for distributed PV could rise from approximately 170 GW using traditional inverters to about 350 GW with the use of advanced inverters for voltage management, and it could be even higher using accessible and low-cost strategies such as careful siting of PV systems within a distribution feeder and additional minor changes in distribution operations. Also critical to facilitating distributed PV deployment is the improvement of interconnection processes, associated standards and codes, and compensation mechanisms so they embrace PV’s contributions to system-wide operations. Ultimately SunShot-level PV deployment will require unprecedented coordination of the historically separate distribution and transmission systems along with incorporation of energy storage and “virtual storage,” which exploits improved management of electric vehicle charging, building energy systems, and other large loads. Additional analysis and innovation are neede

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Spread Spectrum Time Domain Reflectometry (SSTDR) Digital Twin Simulation of Photovoltaic Systems for Fault Detection and Location

Utilizing spread spectrum time domain reflectometry (SSTDR) to detect, locate, and characterize faults in photovoltaic (PV) systems is examined in this paper. We present a method to obtain the model parameters that are needed to produce digital twin SSTDR responses for PV systems. The digital twin SSTDR responses could be used to predict faults within the PV systems. Here, the model parameters are the reflection and transmission coefficients at each impedance discontinuity in the PV system along with the propagation coefficients across each PV cable segment. We obtain model parameter by applying inverse modeling techniques to experimental SSTDR data associated with PV systems. Our model parameters can be used in any digital twin simulation method for modeling reflectometry in frequency-dependent and complex loads. For validation, we used the model parameters in a graph network simulation engine and adapted it to be used for SSTDR digital twin simulations in PV systems. We produced simulations for 0 to 10 PV modules connected in series. We also simulated SSTDR responses for open circuit disconnections in a PV setup containing 10 PV modules in series. Results show that all but one simulated disconnect locations match experimental disconnection locations of the same setup with an error of less than 5%.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1980

Photovoltaics as a terrestrial energy source. Volume 2: System value

Assumptions and techniques employed by the electric utility industry and other electricity planners to make estimates of the future value of photovoltaic (PV) systems interconnected with U.S. electric utilities were examined. Existing estimates of PV value and their interpretation and limitations are discussed. PV value is defined as the marginal private savings accruing to potential PV owners. For utility-owned PV systems, these values are shown to be the after-tax savings in conventional fuel and capacity displaced by the PV output. For non-utility-owned (distributed) systems, the utility's savings in fuel and capacity must first be translated through the electric rate structure (prices) to the potential PV system owner. Base-case estimates of the average value of PV systems to U.S. utilities are presented. The relationship of these results to the PV Program price goals and current energy policy is discussed; the usefulness of PV output quantity goals is also reviewed.

Smith, J. L.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Space Station Freedom solar array panels plasma interaction test facility

The Space Station Freedom Power System will make extensive use of photovoltaic (PV) power generation. The phase 1 power system consists of two PV power modules each capable of delivering 37.5 KW of conditioned power to the user. Each PV module consists of two solar arrays. Each solar array is made up of two solar blankets. Each solar blanket contains 82 PV panels. The PV power modules provide a 160 V nominal operating voltage. Previous research has shown that there are electrical interactions between a plasma environment and a photovoltaic power source. The interactions take two forms: parasitic current loss (occurs when the currect produced by the PV panel leaves at a high potential point and travels through the plasma to a lower potential point, effectively shorting that portion of the PV panel); and arcing (occurs when the PV panel electrically discharges into the plasma). The PV solar array panel plasma interaction test was conceived to evaluate the effects of these interactions on the Space Station Freedom type PV panels as well as to conduct further research. The test article consists of two active solar array panels in series. Each panel consists of two hundred 8 cm x 8 cm silicon solar cells. The test requirements dictated specifications in the following areas: plasma environment/plasma sheath; outgassing; thermal requirements; solar simulation; and data collection requirements.

Martin, Donald F.↗
DOE OSTI2016

On the Path to SunShot. Emerging Issues and Challenges in Integrating High Levels of Solar into the Electrical Generation and Transmission System

This report examines how the bulk power system may need to evolve to accommodate the increased photovoltaic (PV) penetration resulting from achievement of the U.S. Department of Energy's SunShot cost targets. The variable and uncertain nature of PV-generated electricity presents grid-integration challenges. For example, the changing net load associated with high midday PV generation and low electricity demand can create 'overgeneration' that requires curtailment of PV output and reduces PV's value and cost-competitiveness. Accommodating the changes in net load resulting from increased variable generation requires enhancements to a power system's 'flexibility,' or ability to balance supply and demand over multiple time scales through options including changes in system operation, flexible generation, reserves from solar, demand response, energy storage, and enhanced transmission and regional coordination. For utility-scale PV with a baseline SunShot levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of 6 cents/kWh, increasing the annual energy demand met by solar energy from 10% to 20% would increase the marginal LCOE of PV from 6 cents/kWh to almost 11 cents/kWh in a California grid system with limited flexibility. However, increasing system flexibility could minimize solar curtailment and keep PV cost-competitive at penetrations at least as high as 25%. In the longer term, energy storage technologies--such as concentrating solar power with thermal energy storage--could facilitate the cost-effective integration of even higher PV penetration. Efficient deployment of the grid-flexibility options needed to maintain solar's value will require various innovations, from the development of communication, control, and energy storage technologies to the implementation of new market rules and operating procedures.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

Energy Storage Requirements for Achieving 50% Solar Photovoltaic Energy Penetration in California

We estimate the storage required to enable PV penetration up to 50% in California (with renewable penetration over 66%), and we quantify the complex relationships among storage, PV penetration, grid flexibility, and PV costs due to increased curtailment. We find that the storage needed depends strongly on the amount of other flexibility resources deployed. With very low-cost PV (three cents per kilowatt-hour) and a highly flexible electric power system, about 19 gigawatts of energy storage could enable 50% PV penetration with a marginal net PV levelized cost of energy (LCOE) comparable to the variable costs of future combined-cycle gas generators under carbon constraints. This system requires extensive use of flexible generation, transmission, demand response, and electrifying one quarter of the vehicle fleet in California with largely optimized charging. A less flexible system, or more expensive PV would require significantly greater amounts of storage. The amount of storage needed to support very large amounts of PV might fit within a least-cost framework driven by declining storage costs and reduced storage-duration needs due to high PV penetration.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

Exploring the Potential Competitiveness of Utility-Scale Photovoltaics plus Batteries with Concentrating Solar Power, 2015–2030

Declining costs of both solar photovoltaics (PV) and battery storage have raised interest in the creation of “solar-plus-storage” systems to provide dispatchable energy and reliable capacity. There has been limited deployment of PV-plus-energy storage systems (PV+ESS), and the actual configuration and performance of these systems for dispatchable energy are in the early stages of being defined. In contrast, concentrating solar power with thermal energy storage (CSP+TES) has been deployed at scale with the proven capability of providing a dispatchable, reliable source of renewable generation. A key question moving forward is how to compare the relative costs and benefits of PV+ESS and CSP+TES. While both technologies collect solar radiation and produce electricity, they do so through very different mechanisms, which creates challenges for direct comparison. Nonetheless, it is important to establish a framework for comparison and to identify cost and performance targets to aid meeting the nation’s goals for clean energy deployment. In this paper, we provide a preliminary assessment comparing the cost of energy from CSP+TES and PV+ESS that focuses on a single metric: levelized cost of energy (LCOE). We begin by defining the configuration of each system, which is particularly important for PV+ESS systems. We then examine a range of projected cost declines for PV, batteries, and CSP. Finally, we summarize the estimated LCOE over a range of configuration and cost estimates. We conclude by acknowledging that differences in these technologies present challenges for comparison using a single performance metric. We define systems with similar configurations in some respects. In reality, because of inherent differences in CSP+TES and PV+ESS systems, they will provide different grid services and different value. For example, depending on its configuration, a PV+ESS system may provide additional value over CSP+TES by providing more flexible operation, including certain ancillary services and the ability to store off-peak grid energy. Alternatively, direct thermal energy storage allows a greater capture of solar energy, reducing the potential for curtailments in very high solar scenarios. So while this analysis evaluates a key performance metric (cost per unit of generation) under a range of cost projections, additional analysis of the value per unit of generation will be needed to comprehensively assess the relative competitiveness of solar energy systems deployed with energy storage.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Life Cycle Inventory of Current Photovoltaic Module Recycling Processes in Europe

Solar photovoltaic (PV) installations must be properly dismantled and any waste treated and disposed at the end of project life. However, because most of the world's nearly 400 GW of PV systems have been built in the past decade - each expected to operate for between 20 and 30 years - current PV module waste volumes do not yet justify widespread operation of PV recycling facilities. The necessary policies and technologies for recycling PV systems are currently under rapid development. With modifications to the European waste electrical and electronic equipment directive (WEEE 2012/19/EU) in 2012, take back and recycling of PV modules is, in fact, already mandatory in Europe. There, take back and recycling is currently performed in small but annually-increasing quantities. Even though waste treatment is considered part of a module's life cycle, only a few life cycle inventories (LCI) of energy and materials flows are available for the industrial recycling processes that are used today to recycle crystalline silicon-based (c-Si) PV modules. LCI are the data inputs that inform lifecycle assessments which quantify the environmental impacts across the full life cycle of PV modules - from manufacturing and use to end of life. To help progress the industry forward, a survey of European recyclers was performed to characterize existing commercial recycling processes and share associated life cycle inventory data. System Boundaries: The reference unit, or "functional unit" in the vocabulary of life cycle assessment, is defined as the processing of one metric ton of crystalline silicon PV modules in recycling lines for laminated glass, metals, and electronic wastes. Today, all modules are processed in discrete batches, yet not metered at that scale. Thus the process energy for a batch is estimated based on scaled annual production data as well as on input and output streams.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗